PANEL TONIGHT, NBC NEWS CORRESPONDENT -- HE JOINS US FROM DEARBORN MICHIGAN. FORMER DEMOCRATIC MAYOR CONGRESSMAN MAX ROSE, AND MARK LEIBOVICH STAFF WRITER FOR THE ATLANTIC. MAX, GIVE US YOUR TOP LEVEL TAKE AWAY, BECAUSE BOTH BIDEN AND TRUMP, ON BUT BIDEN IS WINNING WES IGNORANTLY MORE. >> SURE, IT IS INTERESTING, BECAUSE WHAT THE REPUBLICANS WILL SAY TO, THAT THEY WILL TRY TO DRAW ATTENTION TO THAT AND COMMITTED VOTE, WHICH IN MANY WAYS IS A EXPRESSION VOTE. IT IS TRYING TO SEND A MESSAGE TO A PRESIDENT THAT THEY STILL BELIEVE IN, BUT THEY ARE LOOKING TO EXPRESS THEMSELVES WHICH IS DEMOCRACY AT ITS FINEST. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE REPUBLICAN SIDE, THERE IS NO ONE WITH A PULSE WHO BELIEVE THAT NIKKI HALEY COULD WIN TONIGHT, AND NONETHELESS NEARLY ONE THIRD OF VOTERS CAME OUT TO VOTE AGAINST DONALD TRUMP AND VOTE FOR HER. THAT RIGHT THERE IS A VOTE ABOUT WHERE THEY WILL STAND IN NOVEMBER, AND THAT IS THE ESSENCE OF -- DONALD TRUMP IS A FORMER PRESIDENT SHOULD BE WINNING 90% OF THE VOTE, 85% OF THE VOTES, BUT WHAT HE IS CONSTANTLY SEEING IN PRIMARY AFTER PRIMARY IS YES HE HAS THE BASE LOCKED DOWN, BUT HE IS STRUGGLING WITH A CEILING. IT IS THE SAME CEILING REPUBLICAN SAW IN 22, IN 20, AND THAT CEILING THAT HATES MAGA EXTREMISM. NONETHELESS TODAY, ONCE AGAIN WE SEE EVIDENCE OF. IT >> REPUBLICANS ARE A PARTY DIVIDED. PEOPLE OFTEN LIKE TO SAY, BOTH PARTIES ARE DIVIDED. BUT IS THAT EVEN TRUE? JUST LOOK AT CONGRESS. PRESIDENT BIDEN'S AGENDA HE HAS HAD A LARGELY CENTRIST FOREIGN POLICY AGENDA, A PROGRESSIVE ECONOMIC AGENDA, AND IT HAS WORKED. IF YOU LOOK AT HOW DEMOCRATS A VOTED IN CONGRESS SINCE HE TOOK OFFICE, THEY'RE BASICALLY ALL ON THE SAME PAGE. REPUBLICANS, THEY CANNOT EVEN GATHER FACTION IN ORDER. >> THEY USED TO SAY I'M NOT A MEMBER OF AN ORGANIZED POLITICAL PARTY, I'M A DEMOCRAT. THOSE DAYS ARE LONG GONE OF COURSE. SPEAKER PELOSI HAD A RAZOR-THIN MARGIN, AND WAS ABLE TO SUCCESSFULLY ADVANCE OUT OF THE HOUSE MONUMENTAL LEGISLATION, AND LITERALLY THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS WITH A SIMILAR MARGIN COULDN'T ORGANIZE THEMSELVES OUT OF A PAPER BOX. SO THEY ARE TOTALLY DISORGANIZED. THEY CAN'T GET THEIR ACT TOGETHER. THAT IS ALSO BEING REFLECTED IN THE ELECTORAL RESULTS TIME AND AGAIN THERE IS A REALLY STRONG ELECTORAL BLOC THAT WANTS NOTHING TO DO WITH MAGA BASED EXTREMISM. THAT BLOCK IS IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY, THE BLACK ISN'T INDEPENDENTS, AND BLOCK IS OF COURSE IN MOST SWING VOTERS. >> MICHAEL, THE BIDEN TEAM KNOWS HOW CRUCIAL MICHIGAN WILL BE IN NOVEMBER. WHAT ARE THEY TAKING AWAY TONIGHT? WHAT ARE YOU HEARING FROM THEM? >> WELL STEPHANIE, WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT WHY THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN, WHY THE DNC, WHY PRESIDENT BIDEN HIMSELF WON IN MICHIGAN TO BE PART OF THIS EARLY VOTING WINDOW, THE EARLIEST THEY EVER VOTED IN AND NOMINATING CONTEST, IT IS BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT SOME OF THE STRENGTHS THAT BIDEN HAS A MONKEY VOTING COALITIONS, AMONG BLACK VOTERS, AMONG UNION VOTERS WHO HAVE BEEN -- THAT A CITY EVENT HE CAME HERE TO DO WITH THOSE AUTOWORKERS AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY. BUT IT HAS ALSO DONE IS EXPOSE SOME OF THE VULNERABILITIES THAT THE PRESIDENT DOES NEED TO WORK ON IF HE IS GOING TO CARRY MICHIGAN BY THE MARGINS HE NEED TO TO BE REELECTED PRESIDENT. WE TALK ABOUT THE AIRBORNE, AS MY ALL DAY TALKING TO VOTERS IN DEARBORN, THEY ARE VERY ANIMATED AND MOTIVATED BOTH AGAINST THE PRESIDENT ON UNCOMMITTED BELL LINE, BECAUSE THEY WANTED TO SEND A MESSAGE ABOUT WHAT IS HAPPENING IN GAZA RIGHT NOW. BUT YOU ARE NOT GOING TO SEE THAT REPLICATED ACROSS THE COUNTRY BECAUSE OBVIOUSLY IN THE ARAB AMERICAN POPULATION IS SIGNIFICANT IN A WAY IT IS NOT ELSEWHERE. BUT WHERE STEVE KORNACKI WAS LAYING OUT THERE WAS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT UNCOMMITTED VOTE WAS COLLEGE CAMPUSES. WE KNOW THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN HAS STRUGGLES WITH YOUNGER VOTERS. YOU'RE GOING TO SEE THAT ON COLLEGE CAMPUS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE PRESIDENT JUST LAST WEEK I WAS WITH HIM IN CALIFORNIA, WHO IS HOLDING AN EVENT ON STUDENT LOANS, HE DIDN'T DO IT ON A COLLEGE CAMPUS IN PART BECAUSE THEIR CONCERNS ABOUT THE PROTESTS THAT BEEN EMERGING AT THESE EVENTS. SO YES THIS IS A GOOD NIGHT FOR JOE BIDEN, HE'S GOING TO WIN THE, STATE HE WILL SHOW SOME STRENGTH AMONG THOSE KEY VOTING GROUPS HE WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT, BUT IT ALSO DOES SHOW SUPPORTING SIGNS THAT A LOT OF DEMOCRATS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO RACE WITH CAMPAIGN THAT THEY NEED TO ADDRESS. BUT STEPHANIE, THEY DO HAVE TIME TO ADJUST THEM. >> BUT MARK, THOSE UNCOMMITTED VOTERS ARE VOTING AGAINST THE PRESIDENT FOR NOW, AS MAX BUT, IT BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT HAPPY ABOUT HIS SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL. BUT WE ALSO KNOW THAT RIGHT NOW THE PRESIDENT IS PUSHING FOR A CEASE-FIRE. SO IS THAT PROOF THAT THEIR EFFORTS ARE WORKING? HE IS LISTENING? >> IT COULD BE. I THINK WE ARE GOING TO SEE A FEW THINGS. FIRST WHEN YOU SEE THE EXIT POLLING COMING OUT, HOW ANGRY A LOT OF HIS PROTESTERS ARE, WHETHER THEY ARE PLANNING TO COME OR NOT VOTE FOR BIDEN UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCE, YOU WILL GET A SENSE OF THE SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST I THINK THE BIGGER ISSUE IS YOUNG VOTERS, AS STEVE WAS SAYING EARLIER, PLACES LIKE ANN ARBOR, SOME BIG COLLEGE TOWNS WHICH HAVE GROWING SUBURBAN POPULATIONS AROUND THEM, ARE THESE VOTERS GOING TO COME HOME. I THINK IN THE WHOLE OF IT, BIDEN SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A GOOD NIGHT JUST LIKE YOU DID IN NEW HAMPSHIRE EVEN THOUGH HE WAS ON THE BALLOT, THERE WAS SOME TALK DEAN PHILLIPS WOULD WEIGH OVER PERFORM AND EMBARRASS HIM, IN SOUTH CAROLINA HE DID FINE. WHEREAS -- UNDERPERFORMING HAS PULLING TO A DEGREE WHICH COULD BE TROUBLING FOR THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN. BUT ULTIMATELY, WE ARE GOING TO SEE WHETHER DEMOCRATIC VOTERS ARE GOING TO COME, AND WARNING SIGNS HERE, BUT ALSO IT LOOKS LIKE THE WHOLE OF THE PARTY SEEMS TO BE -- >> MARK, YOU HAVE -- COVERED GOVERNOR GRETCHEN WHITMER EXTENSIVELY. WHAT KIND OF POSITION IS SHE IN? WHILE SHE'S A SUPERSTAR SURROGATE FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL, IS ALSO IN A COMPLICATED POSITION NEEDING TO BE SENSITIVE TO HER CONSTITUENTS WHO ARE CASTING THOSE PROTEST VOTES. >> YES, SHE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS IN HER RHETORIC HAS BEEN REALLY SCRIPT. SHE IS EVEN HAD A FAIRLY FREE WHEELING RHETORICAL POLITICIANS OR SOME DEGREE. IN SOME WAYS, SHE HAS RUN AHEAD OF BIDEN CERTAINLY IN POLLS. I THINK YOU KNOW, ESPECIALLY ON THE ABORTION ISSUE, SHE HAS BEEN VERY SOLID WITH SUBURBAN, A LOT OF SUBURBAN REPUBLICANS -- THE DELICATE SITUATION THAT -- I THINK SHE IS A LITTLE BIT BETTER POSITION NOW BUT I THINK BIDEN IS THE ONE WHO WILL FEEL THE BRUNT OF IT GOING FORWARD. >> MAX, NOBODY THOUGHT NIKKI HALEY WAS GOING TO WIN, BUT SHE IS STILL STAYING IN THE RACE WITH THIS IDEA THAT SHE IS RUNNING AS AN UNDERSTUDY. SHE IS RUNNING AS THE BACKUP QUARTERBACK. LET'S SAY DONALD TRUMP DOES GET KNOCKED OUT, SHE IS NOT GOING TO CONTROL THE DELEGATES. I CANNOT IMAGINE THEY WILL TURN AND SAY THE PERSON WHO IS THE THORN IN DONALD TRUMP SIDE NOW WE ARE GOING TO BACK HER. >> THEY PROBABLY WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF WINNING THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION AND THEN NIKKI HALEY AT THIS POINT. IT IS ALMOST COMMENDABLE THE WAY SHE HAS BURNED BASICALLY EVERY RELATIONSHIP SHE HAS HAD IN THE PARTY, BECAUSE THE PARTY IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OLD SCHOOL REPUBLICANISM, AND AT LEAST A SMALL SLIVER -- I ACTUALLY THINK IT HAS GOTTEN BEYOND THAT AT THIS POINT. IT IS CENTERED AROUND A MAGA EXTREMISM THAT GOES WELL BEYOND DONALD TRUMP, AND WILL LIVE WELL BEYOND HIM. WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE THAT SHOULD THERE BE AN OPEN CONSISTENT PRIMARY WITH TRUMP NOT ON THE BALLOT. >> MICHAEL, EXPLAIN THIS ONE TO, AS PRESIDENT BIDEN MADE HISTORY IN MICHIGAN LAST YEAR WHEN HE JOINED AN AUTOWORKER PICKET LINE. NO PRESIDENT HAS EVER DONE THAT BEFORE. BUT NEW NUMBERS FROM NBC SHOW, HE IS ACTUALLY LOSING GROUND AMONG UNION HOUSEHOLDS TO DONALD TRUMP SINCE 2020. WHY IS THAT? IS IT ABOUT THE EVERYDAY INFLATION COST OF GROCERIES AND HAVE PEOPLE DOWN? >> YOU KNOW, IT IS A FASCINATING QUESTION, IT IS WHAT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN IS SPENDING A LOT OF TIME WORKING ON. WE HAVE SEEN THAT THE LEADERSHIP LEVEL, SOME OF THE NATION'S LARGEST UNIONS AND LEADERSHIP OF KAMAU ENTHUSIASTICALLY THIS SUPPORT PRESIDENT BIDEN. WE ARE SEEING SOMEWHAT OF A DISCONNECT WITH THOSE RANK AND FILE MEMBERS OF THOSE UNIONS. IT IS -- LIKE INFLATION. YOU ALSO LOOK AT THE TEAMSTERS UNION, THE FIREFIGHTERS UNION, THEY HAVE NOT YET ENDORSED PRESIDENT BIDEN. THE FIREFIGHTERS UNION OR THE FIRST UNION TO ENDORSED CANDIDATE JOE BIDEN, YOU DID IT BEFORE HE GOT INTO THE RACE. AND WHEN I SPOKE WITH ONE OF OUR FIREFIGHTERS UNION REPRESENTATIVES ABOUT WHY THAT IS, THIS IS HAD OUR MEMBERS HAVE OTHER ISSUES AS WELL. YOU MENTION INFLATION, HE ALSO MENTIONED SECOND AMENDMENT RIGHTS AS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF WAYS IN WHICH THESE RANK AND FILE MEMBERS ME AREN'T LINING UP TO LEADERSHIP. SO THE PRESIDENT REALLY DOES HAVE AN ECONOMIC STORY TO TELL, THEY WANT TO SPEND MORE TIME OVER THE COURSE OF THE YEAR TRANSLATING THE STATISTICS THAT YOU TALK ABOUT YOU KNOW SO WELL STEPHANIE, THE AVERAGE VOTER WHO UNDERSTAND WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS NEXT WEEK, STEPHANIE, THAT IS A MAJOR MOMENT THE BIDEN CAMPAIGN HOPES TO REALLY BEGIN THAT CONVERSATION WITH VOTERS, INCLUDING UNION WORKERS. >> ALL RIGHT LET'S TURN NOW TO ANOTHER MAJOR ISSUE FOR WASHINGTON AND THE COUNTRY. CONGRESS NOW HAS THREE DAYS TO PREVENT A PARTIAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AGAIN. MY COLLEAGUE KELLY O'DONNELL HAS A LOOK AT TODAY'S BIG MEETING THAT THE PLACE AT THE WHITE HOUSE. >> THEY'RE MEETING DESCRIBED AS INTENSE, YET PRODUCTIVE. THE PRESIDENT AND CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS FACING URGENT DEADLINES, AND DIFFERING PRIORITIES, FROM CRITICAL AID FOR FOREIGN ALLIES -- >> I THINK THE CONSEQUENCE OF AN ACTION EVERY DAY IN UKRAINE ARE DIRE -- >> TO HOUSE SPEAKER MIKE JOHNSON INSISTING THE BORDER CRISIS REQUIRES EXECUTIVE ACTION FROM THE PRESIDENT. >> THE FIRST PRIORITY OF THE COUNTRY IS OUR BORDER, AND MAKING SURE IT IS SECURE. >> ON TOP OF THAT DIVIDE, THREAT OF A PHASED FEDERAL GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN. FRIDAY, THE FIRST WAVE OF GOVERNMENT AGENCIES RUN OUT OF FUNDS, AMONG THEM THE FDA, TRANSPORTATION, AND VETERAN AFFAIRS. MARCH 8TH, THE REST COULD CLOSE INCLUDING DEFENSE, HOMELAND SECURITY, AND JUSTICE. A PAINFUL REPLAY FOR 36-YEAR- OLD NAVY WIFE AND MOTHER OF TWO NIKITA FALLON. >> THIS IS NOT OUR FIRST OR SECOND GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, AND IT IS JUST A CONTINUOUS -- OF HOW THIS IS GOING TO IMPACT OUR FAMILY. >> GIVEN THE HARSH CONSEQUENCES, TOP OF COMMON GROUND. >> THE SHUTDOWN WILL DAMAGE THE ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY, AND I AGREE TO THAT, AND BIPARTISAN SOLUTION. >> OPTIMISM BUT NO CLEAR PATH YET FROM THE SPEAKER. >> WE WILL GET THE COMMITTEE FUNDED, AND WE WILL KEEP WORKING ON THAT. >> WILL THEY REALLY, MAX? YOU CAME INTO CONGRESS IN 2019 DURING A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, THEY HAVE COME BACK FROM VACATION, WHAT ARE THESE NEGOTIATIONS REALLY GOING TO LOOK, LIKE AND ARE THEY IN GOOD FAITH? >> HERE'S THE DEAL, THE MOST IMPORTANT NEGOTIATIONS ARE ACTUALLY HAPPENING WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS, AND YOU KNOW, THE SPEAKER'S CHALLENGE IS THAT HE HAS WASTED ALL HIS POLITICAL CAPITAL. OF COURSE AFTER THE KICK MCCARTHY, OUT THEY SAID WE CAN'T DO THIS AGAIN NEXT WEEK, SO JOHNSON HAD SOME ROOM TO MANEUVER, THAT IS ALL GONE. THE SECOND ELEMENT OF THIS THOUGH IS THAT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUS THAT HAS NEVER ACTUALLY LIVED THROUGH A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE HAS NEVER HAD TO GO THROUGH THIS, AND WHAT THEY DON'T UNDERSTAND BECAUSE THEY HAVE NEVER LIVED IT IS THAT WHEN YOU INSTIGATE A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, IT IS A GUARANTEED POLITICAL LOSER. THIS IS TO SAY NOTHING OF THE FACT THAT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY RIGHT NOW WANTS THAT GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN BECAUSE THEY WANT TO CUT FUNDING FOR THOSE MOST IN NEED, AND THEY WANT TO CUT FUNDING FOR OUR FIGHT AGAINST EXTREMISM AND RADICALISM ABROAD, AND NOT TO BE THERE FOR OUR ALLIES. THAT IS WHY THEY WANT TO SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT. THE AMERICAN PEOPLE TO A VAST EXTENT DO NOT SUPPORT THAT. SO WHAT THEY ARE GOING TO HAVE THE SEA, RIGHT, IF THEY DO SHUT DOWN THE GOVERNMENT, THEY WILL START TO SEE PULLS, THEY WILL START TO SEE PEOPLE GOING ON SOCIAL MEDIA, TURNING AGAINST, THEM THEY WILL START TO GET CALLS FROM THEIR CONSTITUENTS, AND THEY WILL HAVE TO EXPERIENCE THAT IN ORDER TO COME BACK TO THE TABLE. SO THERE IS A CHANCE, THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY, BUT IT WILL NOT BE SPEAKER JOHNSON LEADING, THIS IT IS THE EXTREME FLANK OF HIS OWN PARTY THAT KICKED OUT MCCARTHY, AND NOW CONTROLS THEM. >> MARK, A GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN DOES NOT HELP CHAMP, IT DOES NOT HELP REPUBLICANS, BUT DOES IT HELP THE PRESS AND THE VOTES? PEOPLE MIGHT NOT GET OFF THE COUCH IN NOVEMBER FOR A GOVERNMENT THAT DOESN'T WORK FOR THEM. >> NO, BUT TYPICALLY PEOPLE WILL LOOK THROUGH REPUBLICANS, ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY CONTROL THE HOUSE OR WHAT WILL BE SEEN AS DRIVING THIS. THERE IS A SENSE THAT LOOK, THERE ARE A LOT MORE GROWN-UPS IN THE SENATE AND WHITE HOUSE AT THIS POINT, EVERY TIME THEIR PUBLIC IN CONGRESS FENTON SENDER -- REPEATEDLY OVER THE LAST YEAR AND A HALF, IT IS A REALLY BAD LOOK FOR THEM. IT IS NOTHING BUT CHAOS. THERE IS NO SENSE THAT ANYONE IS IN CHARGE, AND LOOK, SPEAKER JOHNSON IS IN A REALLY ROUGH POSITION NOW. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW HE COULD NAVIGATE THIS AND STILL KEEP HIS JOB. HE COULD PROBABLY MAKE A DEAL, GET IT PASSED WITH A LOT OF DEMOCRATIC VOTES WHICH ALMOST CERTAINLY LEAD TO SOME KIND OF VACATING OF THE
