We were gonna get to Cuba,
and we ran out of time, and I know you want to disagree
with me, and you don't even know what I'm gonna say. (LAUGHTER) Well, I want to hear what you
have to say. Well, I mean, I think I said it
in the monologue. We have... or somewhere
in this show, we have stood with worse dictators.
I think Cuba, in the Freedom Watch List
is 62nd out of 177 countries, one being the worst.
So, it's behind China, I think Iran, Egypt, which is not a great place
to be, but it's ahead of a number of our allies
like Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. So, I guess where I'm coming
from is that the United States has all of the leverage
in this situation, and if you're looking at what
Raul Castro's plan is, I believe the plan is not to do
what China and Vietnam have done. Not to have a...
kind of... you know, basically move away
from a socialist economy. I believe they're looking
to Vladimir Putin. They're looking to Chavez's
Venezuela. They want
to have sham elections, and he wants to install his
son or his son-in-law in power, and we're allowing
that to happen. Now, we have all the leverage,
I believe we should open up to Cuba, and I believe we should
normalize relations-- BILL:<i> What do you mean,
leverage?</i> We can demand a lot more
because they're at the most vulnerable point. This is what's been going
on for 50 years. No, it hasn't been going on
because what I'm saying is that actually we
should open up, but we can now demand more from them in terms
of how they treat their citizens and also having
an open and competitive -political process.
-But these things take time. -Of course it takes time.
-It's weak... its weak-- But we're never gonna
have more leverage than we do right now. They used to look to Russia
and Venezuela for cash. -Exactly, they can't.
-Now they can't. -They're 90 miles away
-Exactly, that's leverage. from the world's largest economy
and if they open the door a little crack,
we're gonna overwhelm them. -BILL:<i> And they're doing that.
-I feel very comfortable</i> -that in 5 years' time,
-Yes. these guys are goners.
Five to ten years of sanctions, -get them there.
-SALAM: That's a fantasy. -Yeah, I totally agree.
-(APPLAUSE) He went... the President went,
he looked at Raul Castro, -he spoke to the Cuban people
-I understand that. He talked about democracy,
I mean, that's the first time-- The Castro family,
they're not idiots. They know what they're doing. They have given
this a lot of thought, and if they believe that Ian
was right... -And they're in their 80's.
-They have a plan B, that's my point.
Their plan B is sham elections. In 2018, it's all ready to go. But you know, we can't
make everybody in the world -do everything we want to do.
-SALAM:<i> We've got leverage.</i> Of course we can't. Of course we can make
everyone do-- -Of course we can't.
-Oh. Of course we can't,
but the point is, that why surrender all
of your leverage when they're at their weakest point
right now. -We're not surrendering
-SALAM: Of course we are. all our leverage.
We're trying-- GRANHOLM:<i> It's a benefit
for us, too.</i> Yeah, it's a slight benefit
for us. -We are scaling so much larger.
-We're trying a different tactic from the one that didn't work
for 60 fuckin' years. -(APPLAUSE)
-What a crazy idea. The tactic is we have one big
carrot to offer that is normalizing
relationships and actually offering them
the huge economic opportunities -that an open relationship--
-Ending the embargo -would be another big carrot.
-SALAM:<i> Yeah.</i> But we're not doing that even though most Americans
are for doing that. Normalizing relations
is a rather big thing and having Starwood
and having Airbnb sign deals and getting hard currency
into the hands of the repressive -apparatus of Cuba.
-Yes, that's how their minds are gonna change. Starwood's
gonna be there. They're gonna -meet Americans.<i>
-And that's worked</i> in Putin's Russia?
That's worked, you know, that's gonna work in Iran?
That's gonna work in all the other authoritarian
countries where they've figured
out they're smart, too, Bill. They are strategic, too.
They've given this some thought and they think that they're
gonna come out ahead, and I think
they're probably right. BILL: All right. All right. (LAUGHTER) With that said,
do any of you have a good cigar connect because
I just started... (LAUGHTER) CORY:<i> This is a man who talks
to what I care about.</i> What are the chances
of delegates turning on Trump if there is a brokered
convention in July? I think pretty good, right? GRANHOLM:<i>
I think pretty good, too.</i> Yeah, I mean it depends on who
those delegates are. They're working them now. I mean everybody
on the other team's -are working those delegates.
-BILL:<i> Are you a super delegate?</i> I am not a super delegate,
and I wouldn't be on that side, but I know that they
are working that. <i>-For the Democrats.
-No.</i> You're not a super delegate? I used to be when
I was governor, but I'm not anymore. -Are you a delegate?
-I'm not a delegate, no. -You're just watching on TV.
-I'm just a regular citizen. -Wow, I'm very surprised.
-(LAUGHTER) Will the new voter ID laws
being introduced in key states across the country influence
the outcome of the election? -Fuck yes. Of course.
-Yes, like it did in Arizona's. Everybody who was watching
that five hour-- -BILL:<i> Wasn't that a fiasco?
-Total fiasco.</i> They went from 200 polling
sites to 60 in a heavily Latino county. People had to wait
in line for 5 hours. Wouldn't it be great
if the Supreme Court just once went,
"Eh. We got this wrong." We gutted the Voting Rights Act.
We thought America was better than it was, and it turned out we could not
have been more wrong. Is there any argument
on the other side? The problem is that when
we talk about voter ID laws you've got very different laws
in different states. Some of those laws,
Pennsylvania, for example, that's a really bad law.
But then if you're looking at Rhode Island, you're looking
at Tennessee, you're looking at other states,
they're not all the same. So the problem is when we talk
about voter ID laws, you're talking about a bunch
of different provisions-- BILL:<i> Well, they're all
for limiting--</i> Twenty-one states since 2010
have adopted more restrictive, make it more difficult to vote
laws. 21 states have. This will be the first
presidential election for 16 of those states.
They're largely in the south, they're largely trying to affect
minorities-- Two quick points.
Two quick points. One is this is solution looking
for a problem -that doesn't exist,
-BILL:<i> Right.</i> and anytime you're restricting
votes its bad, but the unspoken truth
that's happening in America, the biggest disenfranchisement
we've seen since were fighting on the Edmund Pettus Bridge
and others were fighting for voting rights is the disenfranchisement
that's going on of people who've been convicted
of non-violent drug offenses. -(APPLAUSE)
-We right now have a country where the Drug War is not
a war on drugs, it's a war on people,
particularly poor people, particularly minorities,
and so now you have a nation where you have swing states
like Virginia and Florida where 1 out every 5 African
Americans has lost their right to vote, and so we have
this outrageous reality in this country right now
where our prison population since 1980 has grown 500%. Federal prison population, 800%.
More people in jail today for non-violent drug offenses,
and all the people in jail for 1975 being locked up
for doing things the last two presidents said they're doing,
and now they're in a second-class citizenship,
a caste system where they can't get jobs. They can't vote.
They can't get Pell Grants. They can't get food stamps.
They can't get housing, public housing. They've entered
this caste system, and it's an affront
to our democracy because basically
what we're doing... is millions of Americans,
we're cutting them out, taking away their voice
and their participation -in our country. So--
-BILL:<i> Yeah, what he said.</i> -(APPLAUSE)
-SALAM: Well, look, and you also have conservatives and liberals
who are agreeing on this, and who are seeking
to reform this. This is not a partisan issue.
I'm partnering on legislation with everybody from allies,
from the Koch brothers, to others, trying to fight
something in the system that's completely broken.
One of the greatest tragedies going on in our country
right now, is that what we are doing
to entire communities, like the one that I've lived
in for the last 20 years, is we're devastating
these communities. The chance for an African
American to be arrested, and by the way,
no difference between blacks and whites for using drugs,
no difference dealing drugs except for some studies show
that young white men have a higher rate of dealing
drugs than young blacks, but an African-American
will get arrested for drug crimes about 4 times
more than whites. And this might actually
make communities more dangerous. That's the really scary thing. Because if you want to be tough
on crime, it turns out that actually
using incarceration too much, you actually change the dynamics
of these communities in ways that make them more
dangerous for the people who live there,
and that is really really bad. BILL:<i> I used to deal drugs.
Did you?</i> -(LAUGHS) I did not deal drugs.
-BILL:<i> See? Right there.</i> (ALL LAUGH) Did you ever deal drugs,
Gerard? -What's that?<i>
-Did you ever deal drugs?</i> No, but back in my day, I was
known as an excellent bagger. (LAUGHTER) You used to deal drugs? Oh, in college, yes.
Well, yes. Yes. I was gonna say just pot,
but that would be a lie. -(LAUGHTER)
-I mean, when I got out of college it was just pot,
but in college, it was whatever my dealer had. So, you would buy
from your dealer... You were like a middle man? You'd buy from your dealer
and you'd sell-- Well, that's not very nice. (LAUGHTER) I thought of myself
as an entrepreneur. -(LAUGHTER)
-Middle man. It was the 70's. No, but it still goes on today.
Look, I went to Stanford-- BILL:<i> That's how I got
through college, by the way.</i> Well, there's lots of drug use
going on-- Wait, wait, you paid your way
through college dealing drugs? -Yeah.
-That's a... -GRANHOLM:<i> Wow.
-(LAUGHTER)</i> Yeah, maybe I'm gangsta now. (LAUGHTER) (APPLAUSE) For the record, still no.
The answer's still no. -Why? Cause I'm white?
-Yeah, kinda. A little bit. -(LAUGHTER)
-No. No. You're gangsta. -Fine, Bill. You're gangsta.
-More gangsta than you. -(LAUGHTER)
-Is Donald Trump, Ian Bremmer, off base in suggesting that
the US rethink its involvement in NATO? You know, let's ask
a different question that's close to that.
Trump said this week that he was not putting nuclear weapons
off the table dealing with ISIS because we need
to be unpredictable. (NERVOUS LAUGHTER) You know, you had me
at Trump and nuclear weapons. BREMMER:<i> That's totally
unpredictable. It's true.</i> I mean, that's a crazy thing
to say, isn't it? Well, I mean, I would say
number one, Trump's slogan is not "Make America
Great Again" it's "America First,"
and it's let's find everyone else to blame.
Mexicans are gonna come to rape our women.
Japanese and Chinese are robbing us blind.
The Europeans are taking advantage of our good will
on security. Muslims are all gonna
blow us up. That's a problem, right?
And we see that with NATO as well.
But I have to say, at least from my perspective,
I think the likelihood that Trump actually could win
a general election, given the astonishing negatives
he has among young, among women, -among just normal Americans,
-(LAUGHTER) is really really low. And I know
we're talking about it because we have to
and it's entertaining, but I just don't-- -It's more than entertaining.
-He could be the Republican nominee, and probably will be.
And by the way, in this country, the Republican can always win.
You know, they always said, "Well, you know, the Republicans
are losing minorities, and they're losing women."
Yeah, but they never tried -a race war election.
-SALAM:<i> Yeah.</i> They never, like,
really roused up those people who when you lift up the rock,
you find out what's living in this country. And Obama got
like 40-something percent of the white vote against
Mitt Romney. -Trump's gonna get more.<i>
-And combine that</i> with voter suppression laws. He's 9 percentage points behind
Romney among white voters, -but what I will say--
-BILL:<i> Trump is?</i> Yes, in a general election.
Yeah, he's well behind Romney among white voters. He gains
some and he loses other ones. He's gonna move to the middle.
That's the problem. This is why this is important. I don't think he will
move to the middle. He doesn't know how
to do that. -No, he's gonna slide--
-He does not know how -to adjust.
-I think that-- -He's who he is.
-You're talking about Ted? -No, I'm talking about Trump.
-No, no, Trump speaks-- No, Ted will know how to move
to the middle, not Trump. No, I disagree with you,
I think that Trump-- Trump will not.
He knows only one speed. "I'm the best." No, he will say stuff
that is appealing-- He's not obligated
to be consistent. -No one expects him to be.
-Exactly right. 70% of women, for example, can't bear
the thought of voting for Trump in a general election.
All women. -(APPLAUSE)
-But he's gonna...yes. But he's gonna try
to figure that out. Remember, he's super smart,
he went to Wharton. -(LAUGHTER)
-So, he's gonna try figure out the language that makes him
more palatable to groups. -He's gonna do that.
-BILL:<i> He's never done that.</i> What he might do is deliver
a serious blow to the Republican -Party for 10 years.
-Name me one time where he got more reasonable.
He calculatedly said, "You know what, I think
I'm gonna become--" He says that he doesn't want
to see poor people out in the street. He wants to have
healthcare for everyone. I mean, he said that, right?
He said that the thing about trade, which is a
Democratic position often, and he thinks that we should
be creating jobs in America. He has said stuff that is appealing to my side
of the aisle. <i>He's got a dozen
different positions.</i> -Yeah, I mean...
-Immigration. He will try to moderate. But he's constitutionally
incapable of not doing crazy when he's in front of a camera,
all right? That's the point. He likes it too much. We saw him read
from the teleprompter. We saw him at AIPAC
reading from a teleprompter. -We saw him being disciplined.
-Right. It happened once
he can do it again. -BILL: He fucked it up anyway.
-Yeah. -Yes he did.<i>
-What's interesting about Trump,</i> I've never seen white people
scramble before. I've never seen White America
really, like, confused, and like, what the fuck are we
gonna do about this. (LAUGHTER) -It's very interesting.
-GRANHOLM:<i> You mean Republicans?</i> Donald Trump, to me,
is like white Hurricane Katrina. -(LAUGHTER)
-(APPLAUSE) It's like... we didn't realize
it was gonna be... The levies have broken,
and everyone is panicking right now, and it's interesting
to watch. -(LAUGHTER)
-(APPLAUSE) But you live here, too. I live here, too,
but here's the thing, -here's the thing,<i>
-It's gonna be worse for you.</i> I'm from the hood.
I don't trust anybody. -I think everybody's corrupt.
-(LAUGHTER) But you don't think it matters
if Trump or anybody-- No, of course it matters.
It definitely matters. I'm just saying it's
an intriguing thing to watch. I think, you know, I've had
a healthy mistrust of literally every candidate that's ever
existed in my lifetime, so I'm like... yeah, he's in the pile with the
others. BILL:<i> Even Obama?</i> Um, with Obama, listen,
we were all very excited. (LAUGHTER) We were young. We were excited.
We were very happy, you know? And until Cory runs, you know?
We just gotta hang out. (APPLAUSE) -When is that gonna be?
-I was about to chime in and say that these are the days
where I'm gonna run, but not necessarily
for something, -more like from something.
-(LAUGHTER) But you're gonna give
the white people a turn, and they're gonna fuck it up,
and then you're gonna be like... You're gonna be like, come on. Obama was pretty good.
You miss him. The first time I was on this
show, you said that, hey, this Obama,
if he gets this thing right... you remember this joke,
don't you? That they're gonna think
these black guys are good at this thing like basketball.
We're gonna keep putting the black people...
That was the first... That was my introduction
to this show. -(LAUGHTER)
-(APPLAUSE) And here it is 8 years later,
and I'm still suffering through -the same joke.
-Okay, thank you very much. We gotta go. (APPLAUSE)
People always want to get rid of Bill because he transgresses on some sacred cows. But they never ask, who can replace him? Who is as able and willing to cut through the bullshit?
Pretending Trump couldn't win was just wishful thinking, which is the plague of our time. We need some genuine truth-tellers like Maher, even if he's wrong on an occasional issue here in there.
Amazing how naive some people were in those days.
I remember one of the first times Bill said he thought Trump would win and I thought “NAAAAAAAHHH no way” then he had Scott Adams on and I thought “NAAAAAHHH no way”
Nice post, great clip.
I really enjoy Bremmer. He's a sharp mind, but on the flip side, it's really wild to see how wrong people can be sometimes. I'd like to see him speak about how wrong he was.
But yeah. Bill pretty much was one of the first 'mainstream' politicos (comedian or not) who was straight-up saying Trump could win. He was definitely ahead of the curb on the 2016 election.