Oscar Predictions 2025 | Mid-Year Report!

well we have made it halfway through 2024 what are five movies that have already been released this year that I think are going to be Oscar contenders hi it's Brian welcome to the awards Contender happy July everybody it's time for my midyear reports I have not made an Oscar predictions video in a while because from April to like July August there's not a whole lot going on I mean let's look to last year at this time July 1st 2023 only one film had been released that went on to get a Best Picture nomination past lives which came out in June and we were on the cusp of barbin Heimer Barby and Oppenheimer came out at the end of July obviously and those two movies turned out to be huge Awards contenders Oppenheimer won a bunch of prizes including best director and best picture but like at this this point last year not a single movie had yet been released that went on to get an acting Oscar nomination of the 20 people who got nominations in acting at the 96 Academy Awards not a single movie had come out yet like we were talking about air maybe air would get into best supporting actress for Viola Davis we were talking about past lives Greta Lee getting in for past lives it was something I hoped for the entire year I thought maybe it could happen after she got Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations but when she missed sag and bafta I was like uh I don't know and it didn't happen it was so disappointing so when it's early July you have to be realistic about expectations I know in the last few days we've gotten the bike riders and kinds of kindness many people love these movies more than I did you could say kinds of kindness is of course going to be an awards Contender like maybe it won't get into best picture or something but like it's going to get director for Lanos Emma Stone just won for poor things so she'll probably be nominated again Jesse plem one best actor for kinds of kindness at can so obviously he's going to get an Oscar nomination for best actor and it's like yeah but the year is only halfway over there's a lot lot of movies to get to in September October November December that are going to be the giant contenders that's the case every year and it's definitely going to be the case this year as I just talked about in my review I am very doubtful of the chances for kinds of kindness next award season I could see it getting pretty much nothing like maybe it shows up somewhere at critic's Choice maybe and I said in that review it could get a screenplay nomination at the Oscars if that category is wide open original screenplay like maybe but I don't think so same thing goes with the bike riders which I saw way back at the tellu IDE Film Festival last September it was one of the Lesser movies I saw at the festival I had some problems with it but I really love that jod comr performance I thought she could get into supporting actress but then they pushed the movie from December I think I think it was coming out in December from a different studio and they pushed it to June it had a pretty good opening weekend but again it's just it's too early I don't think the bike riders is going to do well either next award season so I am predicting right now that both kinds of kindness and the bike riders are going to get zero Oscar nominations that's my prediction we'll see what happens but what are five films I do think are going to get into the Oscars next year that have come out so far this year let's be honest now there's really only one movie One film released between January and June of 2024 that's going to be a major Oscar Contender get into best picture lots of technical categories and that is Dune part two this sequel was better richer than the original pretty much everybody loved it it was a huge Blockbuster hits and it would just be mindboggling like mindboggling if we get to early 2025 and dune part two only gets a handful of tech nominations and nothing else like no matter what happens between now and the end of the year Dune part two is going to do well next award season the question is how well like can it get into best director for Den Villano can it get into an acting category will it get into screenplay I'm not so sure about that remember this movie opened on March 1st it's already been 3 months since the movie came out and we have a lot of movies to get through over the next 6 months and Beyond and so the only thing that makes me hesitate into predicting like 12 13 Oscar nominations for Dune part two is the early release dates now Dune part two of course was supposed to come out last November we'll never know if the film had stuck to that original release date what the previous award season would have looked like but right now at this point in 2024 it's been kind of a rough go for awards Contender movies like think about 2022 at this point everything everywhere all at once and top gun Maverick and Elvis had come out those movies did very well at the Oscars got lots of nominations lots of big wins 20 24 does not look like that season at all and I do think that is going to help Dune part two since Den vov Miss director for the first dune and he's only been nominated the one time for a rival which is crazy to me I think because Dune part two did come out so early in the year villain nov will probably miss in director again that's the feeling I have right now I also don't think it gets into an acting category like I thought about Austin Butler he is having a moment right now and he gives a delicious villainous performance in Dune part two I could see that happening if there was room in the category but again it's so early in the year I would say that's very doubtful I think Dune part two will get into best picture probably adapted screenplay and then at least five six maybe seven Tech categories I do think Dune part 2 is going to win in a lot of those technical categories the way that the first dune did remember Dune part one from 2021 got six Academy Awards it won six so especially because Dune part 2 is a better movie I would be shocked if Dune part two goes home with just visual effects and sound and that's it like it's going to do well I know it's a long year and it came out way back in March but be patient Dune part two is is going to be a major factor next award season so that's the only sure thing I would say the only film I know is going to do well at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice and probably bafta before the Oscars I don't know about sag like maybe it gets into sag Ensemble but probably not the second movie to talk about is my favorite film so far this year it's my one fstar film of 2024 still thus far and some people have said in comments on my video review and things like that's not going to be an ustar movie like sit down and shut up challengers challengers is not going to do well next award season and I want to push back against that a little bit because I just think it's such a great film it was such a thrill to watch every moment of that movie I would be shocked if Challengers just comes up with nothing next award season Now is it going to get into best picture Best Director any of the acting categories probably not like that would be amazing I would love that I would vote for it to get into those categories I think Zena deserves the best actress nomination Luca guadan Nino would be a great pick for best director but there is one thing holding guadino back here I think in that I guess he has another movie coming out later this year with Daniel Craig called queer I believe it's having its World premiere at the Venice film fesal and so queer is going to be the big Awards player for Luca guadino at the end of 2024 which does give me some pause about Challengers like maybe enough voters will forget about it and that would just be devastating because at the very least Challengers deserve to get a couple Tech nominations like best editing and best original score like at the very very very very very least it deserves editing and score give me those two and I will be okay like I I will be quiet I will smile and not throw a fits even though I do think Challengers should be a best picture nomin this movie is so great and like Dune part 2 was originally coming out in 2023 and then they pushed it to April again I don't know if Challengers would have been a major Awards Contender a few months ago because of its April release date it is going to be hard to gather that momentum it needs throughout the next few months to keep it on Awards voters minds but I feel like a lot of people were doubting past lives at this point last year past lives comes out in June it's not a big hit by any means it was out of of theaters by what end of July August and so there was some doubt with that film like oh that's too small it's too early in the year but then it ended up doing very well at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice they got two big Oscar nominations if there's enough passion for Challengers I could see it getting in and I going to be shouting from the rooftops like don't forget Challengers it deserves to be an Oscar nominee and I think it's going to be number three is inside out too which is the first mega Blockbuster of the summer like a lot of people were waiting in May and early June for something to take off right and be like a big hit at the box office get people back in the theaters inside out too was that movie and I enjoyed it I liked it more in the first half than I did in the seconds I had kind of a weird reaction to inside out too in that for a while I was like why are people being negative about this this is a fantastic sequel I'm really enjoying it and then it hit a point about 45 50 minutes in where I was like oh I kind of see where this is going it's not giving me any surprises it slowed down in the pacing and the ending I thought was a little bit rushed and I was like oh okay it's good it's not great it's not the original inside out which I think is a Flatout Masterpiece one of Pixar's greatest movies it's not at that level but a lot of people really love it like really love it are going back a second a third time it's such a huge monstrous hit at the box office it's for sure getting an Oscar nomination for best animated feature could potentially win inside outs of course won this Oscar back in 2016 and it's been a few years since Pixar has won an Oscar in that category and unless something comes out of the blue later this year like a boy in the Heron kind of a movie that everybody falls for I think inside out to is going to be the front runner to win best animated feature at the next academy awards ceremony like Disney has Moana 2 in November I don't think Moana 2 is going to overtake Inside Out 2 during award season remember the academy gave Toy Story 4 best animated feature Toy Story 4 so inside out too could also win there number four is furiosa from George Miller is furiosa going to get into the Oscars it has to right I know it didn't do as well as they hoped and it's not as good as Mad Max Fury Road but in the technical categories furiosa is going to show up somewhere I would assume at least two or three categories if not more it's not going to get into the top categories OB obviously but I think when it comes to visual effects and sound and makeup and hair styling and those kinds of categories it doesn't really matter if your movie underperforms enough people really liked and loved furiosa there's a lot of great Craft on display that I'm pretty certain it's going to get into the Oscars somewhere like even if it's just one category maybe it's just one like that would be really devastating and silly if furiosa got nothing it's it's going to be nominated for something at the Oscars and number five is kingdom of the Planet of the Apes you ready for a prediction this movie is going to be nominated for best visual effects how do I know this why am I pretty confident about this if you go back and look at the last three Planet of the Apes movies rise Dawn and War all got an Oscar nomination for visual effects I did think kingdom was a slight step down from that trilogy but it was still pretty good and the special effects of those apes are mindboggling like just so well done you forget you're looking at VFX throughout a lot of that movie and so even though the movie isn't quite as good as the last three I think in the visual effects category Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is getting in so those are the main five films that have been released so far this year I do think we'll get at least least one Oscar nomination obviously Dune part two will get multiple probably 10 or more Challengers I hope get something even if it's just editing like a one-off nomination in the tech categories would film me with joy please let it happen inside out 2 is definitely getting into animated feature furiosa is probably getting into visual effects sound makeup and hair styling maybe costume design and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is getting into visual effects is there anything else to talk about that could be a contender not really again I don't see anything happening for the bike riders or kinds of kindness I loved Civil War directed by Alex Garland starring kirst and dun that's going to be in my top 10 of the year but Alex Garland films have not done well at the Oscar since exm and because of the early release dates and the device of opinions about that movie Civil War is not going to play a role next award season if there was a stunts category the Fall Guy would probably get in there but there isn't a stunts category yet and there has been the can film festival of course a Nora won the Palm Door Shawn Baker's new movie that's probably going to play a role next award season it's not opening until October I think and probably at least two or three or maybe more other films that played it can are going to go on to be Oscar nominees but none of those films have come out yet and so it's hard to judge right now like what those Oscar contenders might be outside of aora ultimately it's still very early award season doesn't really kick into high gear until Venice and tell you right and Toronto which is about 2 months away like just hold off for about 2 more months I'll be back in August with my very early Oscar predictions video where I really do a deep dive into all the big potential Awards contenders coming out at the end of the year right now we just enjoy the summer enjoy the hot weather and we wait we wait for the fall festivals which will be here sooner than you think thanks so much for watching and subscribing and let me know in the comments below what are some films that have already been released in 2024 that you think are going to to be Oscar contenders is there anything I left off the list we'll see you next time at the awards contender

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Length: 17min 42sec (1062 seconds)

Published: Mon Jul 01 2024