Early 2025 Oscars Predictions for Best Picture | MapjStudios

so I wanted to take a crack at predicting this next year's Oscar's best picture lineup because last year I came surprisingly close I'm talking 7 out of 10 and ironically the ones I got wrong I was kind of the most confident about the color purple ended up being nothing salurn was a different kind of movie than I thought it was and dune 2 got delayed which I feel like shouldn't count oh and if you're wondering why I hadn't ranked the best picture nominees last year it's because we're doing things slow Fidelity once again I feel like it work last time and once again I'm clutching on my five little Oscars voting demographics the which I will explain again here retirees formerly known as olds but I feel like retiree paints a more accurate picture of the vibe here like the kind of movies your parents like simple Drea structure films that make you feel good at the end and Don't Rock the Boat too much they continue to be the biggest voting group in the academy cheerleaders are perhaps the stereotypical Oscars voter who tends to like movies about movies and tend to vote for their friends or otherwise what makes themselves feel good about their profession and Life Choices they're not as prominent as they once were but still worth keeping in mind popcorn munchers are more or less casual movie goers more in line with what your friend who has a life likes to watch they like movies that are entertaining but also tend to go for hot items that are frequently talked about messagers tend to vote for movies for their message or political significance it's one thing if the movie is good but what does the movie say about the world as a whole and stuff like that I noticed messagers tend to particularly like social satire films because one without fail has always gotten into the best picture lineup since at least 2019 with parasite AR house snobs are the maybe pretentious sort who really dig into the craft of the movie they tend to prop up smaller movies or aour movies with a strong artistic Vision they have grown in prominence in recent years due to the recent expansion in the academy which brought in a lot of international voters and they definitely like their Art House stuff if this movie has made it in the critics top 10 list this will probably appeal to the Art House snobs to win best picture you need to please most if not all of these demographics to some extent although to be nominated it is enough to be favored by at least one of these demographics so we got to make sure all five of them have something to SN their teeth into throughout our 10 we can't just go all in on to retirees for instance number one sing sing sing sing is the movie I am probably most confident about being about incarcerated men finding Purpose By acting in a theater Group sing sing is already released in some film festivals and it got rave reviews it is probably the film most commonly predicted to be a big player into Oscars this year a24 is backing this one up so it's going to have a reliable promotion and as you can tell by my handy little chart I don't think any one of my five demographics will have any problem with this movie AR house snobs have already shown that they admire this movie and it seems to be a critic's favorite messagers are going to going to find the fact that it is about incarcerated men and exploring the prison system to some extent relevant and sing thinging appears to be the sort of Feelgood movie that retirees have loved in the past I'm getting strong Kota or as sacr as it might be to say even greenbook Vibes in fact it is a feel-good and cozy approach to a political issue and it depicts a group of people we often do not see on the screen the fact that sing sing has been set to make up its cast largely a former incarcerated people should also give it a massive narrative and sag push number two Dune part two I'm predicting this movie again because of course I am we've all seen it I've seen it Dune part 2 is not only the big popcorn muncher Blockbuster movie that tends to reliably get into best picture but it is perhaps one of the most highly acclaimed fantasy films ever made surpassing even the original maybe this is recency bias on my part but I might consider it along the same likes if a Star Wars Empire Strikes Back or Lord of the Rings Return of the King even if the hype dies down we know Dune part two is going to win the most amount of oscars this year of course ramping up the below the line text like visual effects cinematography score film editing production design just to name a few and I think that by itself gets this movie easily into best picture Okay number three Blitz following a cast of British ciens during the London bombings in World War II Blitz appears to be a war drama and a period piece at the same time it feels like capital O Oscar Spate the fact that Apple TV is pushing this movie a massive and successful distributor and its director Steve McQueen is a huge name having directed Best Picture Winner 12 Years a Slave absolutely gets this movie into conversation the only reason I don't have it on number two is that we just don't know very much about the movie itself there's no trailer and unlike sing sing or dun 2 nobody has seen Blitz yet but I am hyper confident in this movie getting in number four conclave and now we are finally done with the movies I feel absolutely confident about yep that didn't last long however I do buy the potential of conclave apparently following a fictionalize succession contest to beat a next Pope the book is highly acclaimed Edward Berger though not a guaranteed Oscars player yet is Fresh Off depresses of All Quiet on the Western Front and has proven himself a technically proficient director and unlike Western Front conclave has a notable cast starring Ral mostly importantly we need to look at the major Distributors and out of their entire lineup I feel like conclave is the only real Contender Focus Features has been confirmed to currently wield number five the nickel boys although I'm not as confident in this movie as conclave I would probably get some money on them getting in I can't say the same about the nickel boys which although political is more hardcore and serious giving me something closer to women talking or she said Vibes movies that don't do too well the nickel boys is based largely off of a real life tragic story about a reform school that was Notorious for abusing and even killing its largely African-American students it's going to be a tough film to swallow for many people especially the popcorn munchers who are probably not down for this kind of movie on a Friday night the nickel boys however does focus on the Friendship amongst some of the boys within a fictionalized version of the school and that does give me further confidence that the movie won't be quite that alienating number six the piano lesson so Netflix occasionally puts out movies that are based off of plays written by famous playwright August Wilson so we actually have a decent idea on what to expect out of the piano lesson fences was a best picture nominee and at one supporting actress in addition to being nominated for actor and adapted screenplay Marini's black bottom was less successful sure not getting into best picture even during the pandemic year not the best look with that said it was considered a front runner for several acting categories and both costume and makeup I think it's also pretty commonly agreed that mares would have gone in if 2020 allowed 10 nominees instead of just eight that year both films have been criticized for being too faithful with her adaptions to the point where they really felt like just plays being recorded rather than the film offering a new take on these works but nonetheless the strength of the original plays reliably Garner a big audience and I think the piano lesson will have a similar impact it will get acting kns maybe even an acting win it will get a screenplay nod costumes and makeup is very likely too it's also Netflix if they want one of their movies nominated for best picture they are going to get it they are the most powerful distributor out there number seven a real pain maybe this is my most controversial pick a real pain is a comedy drama about two cousins who travel around Poland and I think they encounter some Holocaust stuff on the way but don't quote me on that I don't know too much about a real pain other than the fact that has premiered at Sundance to decently good reviews and it stars Jesse Eisenberg and Karen Ken who is obviously hot stuff right now I've been on the lookout for the kind of films like American fiction the seemingly invisible and quiet comedy drama that sneaks up later on in award season and I think a real pain fits in that bill to a te we need more comedies on this lineup so far it's kind of an intense selection and the Real Pain looks like a will give each of my five voters something to like I'm willing to bet this is going to be search light's biggest priority as well and search lights is another one of those big big Distributors number eight Joker 2 I wasn't originally going to predict Joker 2 it's not only because I'm not a fan of the first I ranked a bottom when I ranked all of the best picture nominees in 2019 but we also have to remember the Oscars tend to be weary about superhero movies sequels and and I would argue they don't like musicals as much as people think they do and Joker 2 is all tree then I saw the trailer and I got to be honest I'm right there with everybody this project looks so interesting I'm their opening day the craftsmanship has absolutely improved since the first and I think Joker 2 being a jukebox musical takes such a bizarre and drastic shift from the first I think it's going to be the most talked about movie of the year just like the original Joker arguably was just for completely different reasons number nine The Apprentice I was originally and stubbornly holding off against predicting the Apprentice because as much as it might scratch that social satire itch a movie being directly about Donald Trump they're noisy they kill the birds you want to see a bth graveyard you just go take a look a bird graveyard in our crazy year of 2024 feels like a little much especially since it looks like this movie will be more serious than the likes of an Adam McKay film and yes if this movie was made by Adam M it would be in the top five sad as I am to say it but this movie has certified High tier Talent behind it and though I see so many possibilities where The Apprentice film is either cringe or becomes cringe based off of the way people talk about it I think The Apprentice more than any other movie I've heard of yet scratches that messenger and popcorn muncher itch that has really hit home lately juror number two is my 10th pick I don't know I feel like the only demographic I hadn't really made all that happy yet as a cheerleader and unfortunately Tarantino is not releasing his final film after all so I don't see a lot of movies about movies or actors or anything like that no I don't think the actor is going to be that kind of movie it stars an amnesic actor and the director also worked on moral oral so it's going to be too weird on the other hand J number two might be Clint Eastwood's last film and it has an interesting enough premise following a juror for a murder trial who finds out he is actually far more connected to the crime than he originally bought to an extent I'm treating jerro number two as a placeholder but Clint Eastwood films have been popular in Oscar's past so I don't think this one is so impossible they might want to give him a career dub ha I don't feel really confident with this 10 it seems really retire Centric and little bit serious compared this with the 10 that got nominated this year we got Barbie and poor things uh film's got goofy but still this is my Play and if I'm even six out of 10 right I'll count as a big win here are my honorable mentions Gladiator 2 I would be predicting this movie if we weren't already filled to the brim with not only popcorn muncher movies like Dune 2 and Joker 2 but sequels like Dune 2 and Joker 2 I also don't have a lot of faith in Ridley Scott movies lately but reception has been positive on Gladiator 2 so far and the original did win best picture so this is the movie I feel most uncertain about leaving out currently Maria uh Maria Stars Angelina Jolie as opera singer Malia kalas and is the third in The Unofficial sadom Trilogy of films directed by Pablo Lorraine the other two movies were always on the outside looking in on the best picture conversation despite being highly critically praised so I'm treating Maria the same way however Angelina Jolie is a Best Actor's front runner so that definitely gives Maria more than most the room next door Pedro almadovar feels like to me one of those outside looking in kind of film directors at least when it comes to the Oscars but maybe it's his time the film stars Tilda Swinton who seems to be having a big year and looks like Sony will be Distributing this movie which I think gives this one a significant leg up I know parallel mothers had Netflix but Netflix was occupied with a bunch of other movies so this could be Sony's big thing mother Mary David Lowry the guy who did the Green Knight is directing what appears to be a normal film about a musician and a fashion designer starring Michaela Cole and Anne halfway I think we'll see what kind of film this is I can see it catching on but I also see it being a little too inie film festivals for the Oscars megalopolis is one of the most interesting films of the year a self-funded and independent passion project by legendary director Francis Ford Copa of Godfather and Apocalypse Now Fame making an epic about an architect played by Adam Driver who wants to turn a decimated New York City into a Utopia super interesting narrative right there a bootstrap cinematic achievement if only it was good que starring Daniel Craig and by the same director of best picture nominated call me by your name but also of Bones and all and Challengers I think this movie has a chance but Lucas Films tend to be a little too ya Vibes for the Oscars the fire inside is a sports drama about a you get the picture Horizon part one I don't think we or the Oscars have entirely gotten over westerns it will appeal to the older audience especially but probably the same ones who would be occupied with Dune or Joker Horizon probably won't attract a younger or snober audience and it is a part one also it's coming out in summer no no I I should have put this below furiosa furiosa I think we have our hands full with Blockbuster films especially with Dune 2 but considering how huge Mad Max Fury Road was into Oscars and pop culture conversation we absolutely cannot rule out its prequel which is apparently amazing kind of kindness I know the academy is loving yoro Lanos right now but they still hate Anthology films VN is the latest apparent Masterwork of the director behind the Act of Killing one of the most heart-wrenching sobering and famous documentaries of all time it is also quite possibly my review buddy ni Tia's favorite film Joshua Oppenheimer is making his first bold leap into fictional narrative films in order to create a golden age musical starring Tilda Swinton what The Supremes that orl is all you can eat I was treating this movie very seriously it was my original fifth pick until I found out it is a Hulu original still not impossible of course [Music]

Channel: MapjStudios

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Keywords: dune, sing, a24, oscars, best, picture, predictions, academy, awards, joker, joaquin, phoenix, lady, gaga, blitz, conclave, gladiator, piano, lesson, furiosa, mapjstudios, mapj, kieren, culkin

Id: RWjA-WyXa3A

Length: 15min 48sec (948 seconds)

Published: Sat May 11 2024