March 17, 2021 Weather Xtreme Video

join the american meteorological society by becoming a member of the band the ams weather band is a global community of weather enthusiasts dedicated to learning and sharing their love of science visit ams weatherband.org to learn more and join the band today it's the weather extreme video this is the morning edition this is for wednesday march 17 2021 i'm james spann we have a dangerous severe weather situation for alabama this afternoon and tonight a whole lot of things to talk about today so let's get right into it we start with the upper air look this is the flow pattern across the country about 18 000 feet off the ground and we have a very deep upper trough coming into texas and that will be going negative tilt later today providing dynamic support for the storms that was the radar this morning at 4 30. and you can see we've got convection beginning to fire on the western side of the state but nothing severe and the odds of severe storms this morning are low the main problems begin this afternoon now we have a wedge front we have colder air that's moving into east alabama from the east the cold air damming situation the wedge so if you're in aniana gadsden pelt city aniston you're in the low to mid 50s it's relatively cool and stable but west alabama in the 60s tuscaloosa sitting at 65 and regionally you can see the effect of that wedge we've got low 50s for parts of georgia and the carolinas as well but very mild air to the south and west that wedge front will slowly be drifting northward this morning as a warm front now early this morning we should note there's some dense fog and that cooler air over the eastern half of the state there's a dense fog advisory that will be dissipating later this morning now this is the big picture this morning in terms of watches and warnings we do note we've got severe storms in progress over parts of oklahoma and texas where there's good dynamic forcing going on we have a blizzard warning in effect for parts of the texas and oklahoma panhandles and a flash flood watch for parts of southern missouri in the western tip of kentucky the southern tip of illinois but obviously this is the concern the severe weather potential this is the day one severe weather outlook and the spc guys have issued a high risk level five out of five for parts of louisiana arkansas mississippi and west alabama of course surrounding that we have risks as far north as st louis and as far east as macon georgia this is the probabilistic outlook for tornadoes today and again in the hatched area that means we have the chance of a few strong violent tornadoes ef-345 and the probabilities there that's the chance of a tornado passing within 25 miles of a given point and in the high risk area that's 30 percent understand tornadoes are very small that's a very high number this is the probabilistic outlook for damaging winds and again most of alabama in a 30 bracket meaning there's a 30 chance of damaging wind within 25 miles of a given point here's a closer look at our state and please don't get too hung up in all of these colors in risk categories you simply need to understand the entire state all 67 alabama counties with a significant risk of severe storms but the high risk includes parts of lamar fayette tuscaloosa pickens green sumter counties in west alabama the moderate risk level four out of five runs over to huntsville anniston gadsden tuskegee greenville down to jackson and the rest of the state in a level three enhanced risk then tomorrow the risk moves on to the east a moderate risk over parts of the carolinas and georgia and we'll talk much more about what's to come here in just a moment in modeling and this is day three which is friday no severe storms expected across the country this is the rain for the next seven days for alabama the amounts will be in the one and a half to two and a half inch range for the northern half of the state under one inch for southeast alabama so let's go through modeling this is the gfs this is the oz run valid today at three there's your dynamic negative tilt upper trough increasing diffluence across the region and providing dynamic support a surface low is over western arkansas under a thousand millibars and we're obviously in the warm sector i say that now if you're in northeast alabama it's cool and stable this morning but that warmer unstable air surges in there later today so this is the high-res dam valid today at four o'clock and in the warm sector all of those storms you see across the state those could go severe very easily any time after one o'clock today and some of those could produce a tornado this is eight o'clock this evening again evidence of thunderstorms and the radar will not look exactly like that please understand that but any storms in progress across our state could be severe and we noticed the main activity forming to the west over mississippi and this is after midnight 1 a.m showers and thunderstorms coming in here not necessarily linear they're still broken and so these storms could produce damaging winds and again the chance of tornadoes this is the instability and again this is after midnight 1am surface-based capes in excess of a thousand jewels very high shear numbers this is the zero to one kilometer storm relative felicity and even after midnight the stp values are elevated over five units in many cases this is updraft helicity the possibility of rotating thunderstorms and see all those tracks across the northern and central part of the state and again please understand we're not saying tornadoes will touch down exactly where you see those rotating tracks but the potential is there anywhere basically for the state in terms of the timing again we think the window opens up about one o'clock this afternoon for the entire state any storm after that through the late night pre-dawn hours could produce large hail damaging winds and tornadoes storms should be ending in northwest alabama about 2 a.m birmingham tuscaloosa aniston gadsden around 4 a.m storms could linger into southeast alabama through 7 or maybe 8 a.m tomorrow but again this this event has been on the table for days and if you watch these videos you're perfectly aware of that but again our ask is that you tell your neighbors and friends uh and people you know about this that don't pay attention to weather and be sure they have two ways of getting warnings they know their safe place they have helmets for everybody if they live in a trailer they have a plan on where they're going uh we're down to the last minute for preparations but again you can help us by spreading the word but this is a very very volatile setup we're basically sitting on a powder keg this morning so tomorrow everything's out of here we might see a few intervals of sunshine but the day should be mostly cloudy and cooler with highs only in the upper 50s and low 60s this is friday a cool day highs in the upper 50s clouds could linger a decent chunk of the day they should be dry this is saturday the sky becoming sunny the high will be around 60 and sunday morning's gonna be cold we'll be in the 30s in many spots we could see frost maybe a freeze for the colder valleys the high sunday mid 60s monday we're dry upper 60s this is tuesday here comes the next system tuesday night at midnight the surface low is over iowa and with this one this could push maybe some strong storms in here tuesday night but i'd say the severe potential at the moment looks limited and here's a week from today wednesday march 24th the new system back in the southwest the front stalls out so rain will likely linger into wednesday so this is friday of next week march the 26th the next system lifts out the surface low near chicago that might bring some strong storms and this is saturday the 27th the zone will flow we're back into dry air mass rain for birmingham off the european ensemble the mean between three and four inches between now and the first of april there's the cooldown after the storms the national blend of models showing a high of 56 on friday it's got 37 for birmingham sunday morning and again many spots will see low and mid 30s with frost on the ground then we go back in the 70s next week in the cpc outlook this is for march 24th through march 30th suggesting temperatures will be above average across the deep south that's it for the weather extreme video this morning we'll have notes on the blog no afternoon video today because most likely will be in severe weather coverage but again be sure you get the warnings have a plan we'll get through the day together watch us for continuing coverage later today on abc 3340. thanks for watching have a great day and god bless and be safe join the american meteorological society by becoming a member of the band the ams weather band is a global community of weather enthusiasts dedicated to learning and sharing their love of science visit ams weatherband.org to learn more and join the band 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Channel: ABC 33/40 Weather

Views: 24,504

Keywords: James, Spann, ABC, 3340, 33/40, Alabama, weather, ANCWX

Id: dXf7D1CdX54

Length: 8min 52sec (532 seconds)

Published: Wed Mar 17 2021