Heavy mountain snow, Arctic air?!?

hey everybody michael snyder pacific northwest weather watch today is march 5th and today we're going to take a look at our extended forecast for the pacific northwest that system moving down tuesday and until wednesday of next week and then we're going to get a little bit chilly after that as some cold air filters into the region checking out the infrared satellite imagery right now this energy that's coming down next week is still well up to the north here it's going to ride down on the back side of this ridge and try to reach out on mace mainly a northeast trajectory as this trough digs out it's going to try to clip our region here and we'll look into that in some detail you can see this fairly powerful storm over the southwest usa right now winter weather advisories winter storm warnings high wind watches and warnings going out for the areas down there in the southwest including las vegas so if you're traveling or you're going down to southern california heads up for that storm taking shape over there and you can see this system moving out over the the great plains here moving up towards iowa for some severe weather threat there today and then on into sunday and monday that threat will move on to the east but you can see we're in a nice dry northerly flow here you can see this cold air cumulus moving down the west coast and we should have a nice day today after these low clouds burn off i know i'm under some of these lower clouds now but this wind is coming out of the north and there is some clearing behind this should start to break up and get some good sun breaks today should be a pretty nice day today and tomorrow for areas of across pacific northwest you can see the remnant return moisture kind of spinning over southern oregon there that should also be departing during the day today really nice and sunny over portions of eastern washington northern oregon there too so let's just jump into things here here's a closer look at the invisible satellite imagery here you can see you can see some of that breakup occurring right now as this north wind kind of filters down we should get some sun breaks as we go through the day see some mountain wave activity going on over the oregon cascades and over the bc higher terrain north cascades here and you can see that fall kind of sucked in there for those valleys up north and this is probably the case for some of these areas down south too a little bit of remnant fog there for the valleys of the higher terrain in northeast washington we could see a nice sunny day in store for the washington coast and we should break out nicely here in the puget sound in the willamette valley during the day today so checking out the rest of the country here you can see we've got winter weather advisors on the north side of this system as it moves through and some pretty good red flag warning some fire danger here some really dry air is going to move in behind this system that's bringing that severe weather threat for iowa today and we'll move on to the east the next couple of days and you can see the impacts of this storm moving down here looks like right now they've dropped everything down to wind advisories for most areas there's some winter storm warnings for central nevada and winter weather advisories for a lot of the higher terrain so checking out las vegas this is the national weather service discussion they're talking about those gusty winds multiple high wind warnings and wind advisories i didn't see those any of those on the map currently but they might be out there maybe i just didn't see them maybe we weren't zoomed in enough talking about the strong winds tonight especially for some of the higher terrain off into california and there seems to be a nationwide collaborative effort there for the national weather service is to get people on the coco ross so check out that website coco raw weather observers especially need that for portions of eastern washington and eastern oregon we have a lot of these observers on the west side where there's more people obviously but we need some help out on the east side so checking out that severe threat you can see they brought an enhanced area there for portions of northern missouri and iowa this is mainly a wind driven enhanced right now five percent tornado threat there's going to be a line of somewhat discreet cells that moves through here this afternoon and they should be spinning quite rapidly there's some good helicity values and maybe just enough cape to bring a photogenic tornado a brief window maybe a couple hours through that area and you can see that wind threat there mainly through iowa and a bit of a hail threat as well and this is for tomorrow sunday you can see this slight risk extends down towards southern missouri and arkansas back into southeast oklahoma and then on for monday this slides east as you can see here so heads up if you have concerns out there the severe weather threat is starting to ramp up here it is march and it's the time of year these things start to get going so here we go elko nevada winter storm warnings are in effect and just to let you know you see some of these elevation totals but most of nevada central there is above you know 5 000 feet so this isn't like an extreme high elevation thing going on here for example tone upon nevada is just over six thousand feet so it's a pretty good snowstorm moving through central nevada there now back to the pacific northwest here just checking out the winds today you can see those okanagan river valley winds going through there so you'll probably reach an area where the north winds are pretty good if you're traveling across 82 or even down towards 84 i-90 you'll probably get those strong winds just probably well it looks like east of ellensburg there but you'll see these winds kind of scour down through the puget sound that should bring a really nice day for western washington and eastern washington will be breezy but it should be nice and sunny over there for most areas and here we're looking at the namm this goes out 84 hours and you see this high pressure building now it's kind of what's bringing our gusty gusty northerly winds to the area here and clearing us out quite nicely and you see that high pressure kind of remain established there as we go through start to get into tuesday morning though and you can kind of see this trough in here developing as the next short wave will drop down over the region here so the namm is starting to pick up on this troughing here for the storm system on tuesday into tuesday night it's going to bring some colder air behind it too there's going to be some strong onshore flow some good convergence zone bands that bring some pretty heavy snowfall to areas of the central cascades so we'll look at that in some more detail here coming up here's looking at the namm as we go out we're going to check out this system here that starts to slide down tuesday you can see these winds coming off the continent now back over the water and back into western washington here and this is going to bring that strong onshore flow as our next system starts to bear down on us on tuesday so here's the upper level winds now you can see that storm just moving out over nevada here this nice trough is just carved out over the southwest usa some active weather there and us in our nice dry northerly flow should give today and tomorrow should be really nice days monday should actually be a pretty nice day too if some clouds start to arrive from the next system as you can see the trough digging out for us now here as we go into tuesday morning you can see it's not really over water too much it's really a fine line here the further this gets out west the more moisture it would pick up and the more the stronger the system would be if the more it stays over the terrain here the less moisture it's going to have to work with so here we're taking a look at the gfs hot off the presses from this morning shows that trough over the southwest here and the ridge building up over us here in the northwest let's see what trajectory it has for us on this next system you see this lobe dropped down and it kind of approaches from the east a bit and it just kind of clips the area here so the gfs continues to be a little bit further east than the european was last night we'll look at the european here in a minute we'll also compare the canadian model and then you can see this really cold air spill down into the rest of the country here and as we put this into motion you can see the return of our zonal flow here too this looks like a bit of an atmospheric river condition here as the high builds up off the west coast troughing over the gulf of alaska some strong gradients and perhaps some subtropical moisture being brought back into the region here we'll have to watch that off into our future and then you can see this troughing continue and it brings a couple more systems to the pacific northwest here but we have a lot of time to look at that as the ridge kind of rebuilds in the extended and digs another trough over southwest but we're getting way out into la la land here on the gfs and another big ridge there with some gulf of alaska troughing in the very extended here so this is the surface map for the gfs and you can see that system moving through iowa today bringing that severe weather and you'll see another low pressure system for sunday's severe weather threat to the southeast and then on into monday down there but check out this high pressure that's built over us here giving us our nice few days and then you see this arctic high kind of come down you get the resultant trophy in front of it here and the gfs the trophy is not quite as strong the european was a little bit stronger last night we're going to look at the european again as i mentioned here in a minute but you can see this arctic high does set up over british columbia here and it's going to bring some on shore flow and some convergent zone bands probably with this across the region and some snow for the higher elevations of western washington oregon on into montana and idaho and this will bring some pretty chilly air behind it too so there's a chance for some snow on the lower hills as we get into wednesday or thursday if there is a few showers that remain and then you can see this arctic high just kind of barrel down across the country here bringing some really cold air all the way out to the gulf states here check out this high pressure gets really established as we go to a much more zonal flow here as the gulf of alaska trophy returns and you can see multiple low pressure centers revolving around the gulf of alaska there and this is that atmospheric river condition it looks like here as you can see the high pressure strong gradient and pretty good moisture fetch would be associated with this in fact we can just go ahead and dive right into that and look at it yeah and you can see that atmospheric river there as it approached the pacific northwest on into the future and the european the canadian have hinted at this at times too but it's not as strong as the last one you can see it gets off the region there pretty quickly so it would just be you know a pretty standard rainmaker here for the pacific northwest as it slides down so it comes up they're a bit that's the next one there so let's go ahead and back up there and there's that atmospheric river and it slides down the oregon coast towards california there but looks like kind of a prolonged period down there on this run for northern california oregon so that could be something to watch out for there too but anyway let's move on to the canadian model this is this morning's run and you can see good agreement with that trough and you can see the next polar lobe kind of reach down and canadian finally reaches it out it really takes a kind of a a retrograde motion here on this polar lobe out towards pacific northwest so this is going to be it's what the european was kind of showing last night too so we'll have to see how that goes and you can see that really cold air makes its way down across the two thirds of the usa with leaking a little bit over the pacific northwest but look at this polar lobe amazing just moves across the east coast and followed up by another clipper system it looks like as we go to a more zonal flow here check this out you can see that high and then these systems moving through here bringing some rain to the pacific northwest and another system goes through british columbia with another one finally well off into the extended over the pacific ocean here so here's the european let's check it out let's get the most accurate data here or the most up-to-date information and this is this morning's run it's running right now let's see how far out it goes but you can see the slope come down and then reach out from the east pretty similar to the canadian there and we'll look at what this will mean for us at the surface here in a minute put this into motion you see that ridge rebuild here in the extended and the gulf of alaska troughing will probably start up after this this ridge shouldn't be too long lasting as we go into next weekend as you can see good agreement for that arctic air moving down over the rest of the usa going into next weekend now here's the surface map let's update this make sure it's the most recent information as well put this into motion here's the ridge and then you can see that low pressure system slide down there and then there's kind of the troughing in front of this arctic air that starts to slide down and establish itself through central bc so there is that troughing that goes all the way on into wednesday morning is find this this high and this cooler air sags down and does filter out over us a bit so any residual showers could be snow on some of the higher hills there through western washington on into wednesday and thursday and then you can see that arctic air kind of sag down over the rest of the usa or kind of blast down should i say as it spawns another storm system in front of it eventually this air looks like it's going to make us all the way all the way out to the gulf coast there so here is the temperature anomaly let's update this make sure it's recent and you can see this arctic air kind of coming down here and you can see it really get east of the rockies and does spread over into the terrain a bit here and it does cool us down quite a bit here in the pacific northwest but again it is just a glancing blow it's not a full-on arctic outbreak for the pacific northwest or anything like that but it could bring some really healthy mountain snows with it as you can see these cold temperatures moving down hour 138 this would be next thursday night going into friday next week because this thing really takes aim at the eastern portion of the usa here going on into next weekend so let's update this this is the european we're looking a little bit closer the pacific northwest now you'll see our nice day today our dry day tomorrow monday there'll probably be some high clouds arriving as you can see the system starts to make its way down as that arctic air tries to get into british columbia and during the day tuesday this is a pretty quick system that goes through you can see some pretty heavy snowfall going on here through the washington cascades the northeast oregon idaho higher terrain montana as the system moves down and it quickly moves through here as you can see and the moisture cuts off pretty quickly on into wednesday so it's probably gonna not allow our snow chances to be very high as we go into wednesday as the time by the time the colder air arrives into the area here and then you can see the next specific system approaching on into the extended so checking out the european the winds here let's just update this and make sure we got the most accurate information and you can see our nice northerly flow a nice day sunday pretty good day monday too is the next system you can see coming as the air you can see it filtering through the terrain there bringing that cooler air on tuesday and looks like a tuesday morning convergence zone across the puget sound would probably affect the seattle metro area as those heavier bands move into the cascades you can see the kind of a rapid wind shift to the north late tuesday morning right now according to the european some pretty good northerly winds coming down there a very modified i hesitate to even call it arctic but a very modified boundary moves down through the puget sound there and you can see those north winds extend all the way down through the willamette valley some fraser river winds get going here too looks like they really fire up on tuesday night into wednesday morning there you can see them going all the way offshore we get some pretty good offshore flow going on here so it would probably bring some nice weather on into later next week as soon as that system passes as well so that's something to look forward to as well so here we're looking at six hour max wind gust for seatac washington this is the european run for last night you can see 50 ensemble members here these initial conditions are changed for each one of these runs and then we let the model run run out and we can see what kind of uncertainty we're dealing with in the future and we can see where a good agreement is within the ensemble runs here on tuesday night to wednesday as we get to an offshore flow some possible possibility for some gusty north winds as the high pressure takes over the area and some cooler air moves into the region and then we go back to the pacific pattern here as we get some gulf of alaska troughing and some systems moving through the area you can see a smattering of some higher winds mixed in here as you can see the uncertainty with some of these lower wind amounts too just depends on the tracks these individual systems take as they move through the pacific northwest here and you look out into the extent here it's just kind of all over the place so you can really highlight the fact that we are very uncertain on the tracks of these systems as we get on into next weekend and taking a look basically the same map but this is for precipitation you can see the system it comes in tuesday wednesday morning you can see the precipitation totals here generally light and then you look onto the extended and you can see how it really starts to vary some are dry some have over an inch in 24 hour period so weak atmospheric river conditions could move through at points or these systems could miss all together it just depends on the track and you can see that highlighted in these ensemble runs and they can go down the control and the mean and you kind of get an average of what to expect during you know as these systems move through and you can see the pretty good a model agreement there for tuesday afternoon into wednesday for seatac you know always is going to be better better model agreement the earlier you are in these runs this is for seatac temperature six hour min temperature you can see the last from february 28 to about march 2nd it wasn't really picking up on that arctic air getting into the region then about march 3rd it said hey looks like some arctic air is going to infiltrate into our region and you can see these low temperatures down into the 20s here starting on the third you can see now we're getting into the fifth this was last night's one you can see it's still saying yeah we're probably going to get some cooler air in here thursday and friday morning probably some chilly low temperatures down into the 20s for seatac and like always the outlying areas are probably a little bit chillier so you can expect those maybe to be in the mid-20s in fact so heads up if you have any pets outside livestock you know sensitive plants checking out spokane you can see the bundles have also been trading colder as we go from february 28 to march 5th you see how these temperatures cool off and this last run was really pretty chilly check that out down to one degree fahrenheit there for tuesday thursday morning on into friday morning really chilly as well so some of that arctic air is going to be making its way into the region here so heads up if you're in eastern washington or eastern oregon definitely east of the cascade is going to be colder than the west side so if you've got interest with livestock and sensitive plants heads up for that and so yeah that's what's going on i just want to give you guys kind of a quicker brief today and you can see we should have a nice few days here coming up so if you guys have any ideas for this weather channel and my youtube channel here click like and subscribe leave your comments below and i'll do my best to answer them and we'll talk again tomorrow and we'll be able to pin down some of the details of the system moving through tuesday a little bit better and see if there's a little bit better model agreement the gfs and european are still kind of varying on just how much this system is going to get out over us so we'll take a look at that tomorrow as well too so hope you guys are having a good day enjoy the sunshine later on today and tomorrow and i'll talk to you guys later

Channel: Pacific Northwest Weather Watch

Views: 1,959

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Id: WiSN3lSI7xY

Length: 18min 38sec (1118 seconds)

Published: Sat Mar 05 2022