JFK Jr Accident Analysis - MzeroA Flight Training

hey everyone Jason Schappert here of n zero a.com and I'm so excited with what I'm about to share with you guys it's a seminar I've literally done all over the world on the aviation seminar at C next year I'll be delivering it at Aero Expo UK in London and certainly all over the United States maybe you got to see me do this presentation live on our good pilot tour it is our JFK junior accident analysis and it's finally time to release it out on YouTube for everybody to enjoy and the reason we're doing this is really to full well first off we're celebrating the release of our new movie flying again which you see on your screen they're flying again movie comm where we worked with rusty pilots from all over the country to help get them flying get them current again it's almost a 90-minute documentary that really pulls at your heartstrings not only for the pilots but for the non-flying pilots in your life visit flying again movie.com to check it out get a DVD copy or more importantly see words coming to a theater near you aviation on the big screen how cool is that and also while we're promoting flying again all this month of January we're also talking about our online ground school ground school academy.com where I have some crazy signup bonuses which include getting all my books for free for those of you sign up and maybe you saw the movie and say Jason it's time to get back in the cockpit well now you can jump in the ground school or maybe you say Jason I made a new year's resolution to learn to fly ground school academy comm it's there for you guys so listen let's get chatting about it though let's talk about the JFK junior accident analysis now here's what we're going to talk about today and I hope this is a little bit of a longer video so I hope you've set aside half an hour to really take all this in it is a great accent analysis and here's what we're going to talk about I'm actually going to show you a simulation of the JFK jr. accident we went in and created this accident using NTSB data and primary radar data to create this accident to a tee to show you all that to show you as he climbs in and out of the clouds all the way up to the accident from takeoff to accent obviously we abbreviate it a little bit because it's a very long flight we break it down for you and I'm gonna narrate that flight for you I'm going to show you and teach you the chain of events leading up to this accident and what I want you to walk away from knowing at the end of this video is airplanes don't just crash engines don't just quit airplanes don't just magically fall out of the sky it's a chain of events that lead up to each and every accident and lastly I'm gonna share with you the one thing we can do to make each flight our absolute best let's dive into it here together VFR into IMC I'm a VFR pilot I accidentally fly into IFR conditions if that were the case 70% of VFR into IMC accidents end in a fatality the odds are stacked against you so how can we learn to prevent that that's we're going to talk about and we're going to teach it through the JFK jr. story as an example let's start with some backstory here first off on June 1st 1999 these dates now are very important the pilot fractured his left ankle in a hang gliding accident now on June 2nd the next day he underwent surgery for this fracture and then on June 23rd his cast was removed and he was issued a cam Walker very similar to what you see right here this is actually more of an air cast but you can see this this is what he was issued right here this an air cast boot not quite a cam Walker but pretty darn close for our example up in this story so a lot of people don't realize that the JFK jr. actually broke his left ankle you know in the weeks leading up to this accident and that's going to play an important role let's talk about JFK juniors training now for a second start his training October 4th 1982 now he flew with six different CF eyes over a six-year period and logged 47 hours that's seven hours per year those of you out there with a private pilot certificate or greater is that any way to earn a certificate dividing up your Private Pilot over six different CF eyes over a six year period and just 47 hours seven hours here know one thing we teach here at m0a comm is you want to get in get a ground school done get the written test done and have your flight training concentrated lessons three days a week would be preferred and awesome if you can do that but this is training divided up over such a long period and why the six different CF is you know what I was doing my commercial pilot certificate and becoming a commercial pilot I have eight different CF eyes however when I was working on my commercial though that's back when the airlines were hiring like crazy you had 300 hours a commercial plat certificate in a heartbeat they were hiring you so I get a CF I for one lesson and he'd be gone in a delta hiring pool or training class the next week so it's very hard now during this timeframe 1982 wasn't exactly the same situation so why did JFK jr. go through six different CF eyes was he a difficult person to work with maybe well I don't know let's see if we can build a personality profile around this now the pilots estimated flight time now I say estimated because he did what all you guys do right you become a private pilot and you stop login time you throw your logbook out the window no that's not what we do geez I log if I have the intent to fly I am logging every single hour possible is what I'm shooting for but what JFK jr. did is he became a private pilot and stopped logging hours so we had to do a lot of research and track down his flight time based on things like cool receipts and make some some best judgments and estimates for his flight time in the accident aircraft which we estimated was 37 hours however three solo and point eight at night how does this accident occur well we know that it occurs essentially solo sole pilot on board at least and in eventually a curse at night where he was weakest in the our department now this CF I had to help him taxi just weeks earlier they're approaching the taxiway it's left to this runway right to this runway they're supposed to turn to the left and the CFI had to jump on the rudder pedals and help mister JFK jr. taxi because remember he had just broken his left ankle he couldn't apply the pressure to make that turn to the left and the CFI had to jump on the controls and help him taxi this was as JFK jr. was starting his instrument training something else we're going to talk about here in a second let's continue with more of this backstory now what they were doing is they were heading to drop someone off at Martha's Vineyard and then head to a wedding well it wasn't just anybody it was his sister-in-law along with then his wife we're going to continue on to a wedding we're dropping the sister-in-law off at Martha's Vineyard then we're going to continue on to a wedding now put yourself and JFK junior shoes you're JFK jr. you're a prominent social force within the community everyone is expecting you to be there everyone's expecting you to make a toast make a speech you are expected to be there right well you guys who are on line ground school members and m0a comm fans and friends know that an aviation you never have to be anywhere do you well he felt as though he had to be there no flight plan was filed or proper weather briefing was received in fact all we know is somebody walked over you guys remember those WSI Computers they're still at some FBOs there they're a little bit older now but somebody walked over to one of those WSI computers and pulled up a current meet our for Martha's Vineyard remember we're departing from Essex County New York I'll show you this all in a map head over to Martha's Vineyard all he got was a current routine surface observation for his destination Martha's Vineyard and glanced at a radar image for the entire area now we're assuming there is no login to prove that JFK jr. but the weather was so crummy no one else was flying out of Essex County that day so we're safe to say and assume that it was JFK jr. that pulled up that data now visibility along that route if it would have dug a little bit deeper he would have realized was reported as low as four statute miles in Hayes not exactly the best conditions for a pilot who had only taken his third instrument lesson now this for me is the real kicker the CFI suggested he come along and help in fact he called mr. JFK jr. the night before said listen mr. JFK jr. I was I mean really watching the weather I know you've got a you got to get to this wedding I know you feel like you have to be there the weather isn't that great listen um maybe I can come with you trust me I don't mind hobnobbing at Martha's Vineyard Hyannis all these places don't worry I'll I'll stay out of your way let me fly with you be a great instrument cross country and be a fun time and you think geez any smart pilot say geez the CFI is offering to come along with me absolutely and as a cf I am thinking geez what's EF I wouldn't love to go out to Martha's Vineyard and Hyannis and all these islands out in New England with some of those powerful people in the area and hang out you think what a great time but JFK's exact bone-chilling words were this I want to do it alone what kind of person says that what kind of personality profile are we building those of you who participate in our commercial pilot ground school or maybe those of you who are commercial pilots now know about the hazardous attitudes what kind of hazardous attitude is this I'd call that the macho hazardous attitude I can do it I don't need anybody's help I want to do it alone now CFI is out there watching this put yourself in this CFI shoes you just offered to help and your student says I want to do it alone what do you do imagine that CFI when he wakes up and sees the news the next morning would I could I should I have done something it's what ran through that CF eyes mind let's go ahead now and let's recreate this flight here together welcome to the Essex County Airport in Essex County New York 23 days after mind you we were just issued that cam Walker and after our broken ankle incident now what you're seeing here is really JFK juniors only radio communications he called ground got his taxi clearance he called tower got his takeoff clearance and that's it we don't hear from AM after that but what we do know is nobody was really flying that day so the line guys were all sitting inside the FBO and they were kind of startled when they looked outside and said who on earth is going flying today and I can picture them all up against the glass canopy ran outside wondering who on earth is that and they were quoting the newspaper saying they saw a gentleman on crutches loading bags into the airplane now the ladies all get on board this man this mysterious man they don't know who is is on crutches throwing bags in the airplane and they watch this man who they don't realize yet is JFK jr. try to get in the airplane now those of you who've flown this is a Piper Saratoga those of you who've flown a low-wing Piper Aircraft how do you get in that airplane well you're on the left side you go ahead I'm sorry you're on the right side you grab the handle with your left hand and you go to step up wait that that's the same left ankle you were just broken put any weight on that so the line guys watch this gentleman sit down on the wing and literally scoot himself backwards to get in to that airplane scoot himself on his bottom all the way up into that airplane that's somebody broke an ankle or not who is determined to go flying now you'll see here in our simulation we've just taken off from Essex County again I'll show you some map so you kind of see what we're doing here but when JFK jr. took off the temperature and the dew point were one degree apart now guys when we take off the Sun is already setting the moon will start to come in this picture it's going to cool down is the weather going to get better or worse as that temperature approaches that dew point it's going to get worse so we take off and we turn right like a zero five five heading out towards the Hudson River and I believe JFK jr. did this for one of two reasons possibly we don't know when this is Jason's theory here he took off and what you're seeing on this simulation the weather is going to deteriorate just like it did that day you're going to see the fluctuations in altitude that we pulled from his primary radar fluctuate just like they did that day so as this weather deteriorates I believe JFK jr. took off and took a good look at that weather and said geez this isn't quite what I bargained for maybe I can go ahead and if I can just get to the Hudson River the weather will be better there's you guys who live near a large lake maybe live near the coast you know that the sometimes the weather over the ocean over the big lake will be totally different than the weather over land so maybe that's that was his thinking his other thinking might have been well I don't really want to talk to anybody I'm not that good on the radios anyways how am I going to avoid New York's busiest airspace well the best way to do that was to head north up towards the Hudson River then cut it across towards the Long Island Sound keep in mind this is a gentleman with no instrument rating in fact he had started his instrument training his CFI the same CFI that said he told I want to do it alone that same CF I was quoted saying it took us three attempts to pass lesson number one on the instrument pilot syllabus that first lesson was vor tracking and navigation and took JFK jr. three attempts to do it how can somebody become even a private pilot when they can't track and navigate to and from a vor so he had completed instrument pilot lesson one it took them three times to do it now you see that Airport down there in the bottom right corner I want you to watch for airports as well I want you to see how many airports we pass how many airports you can count how many opportunities JFK jr. had to land to get out to check the weather and keep in mind this is JFK jr. this is the kind of guy that could have gotten on the phone and said hey listen I had to divert to this Airport can you send the Lear 25 can you send the helicopter I've got to get to Martha's Vineyard tonight can you get me there but remember he wanted to do it alone it's this macho hazardous attitude that we're going to continue to build so we continue to fly out and look we make it to the Hudson River but look at that visibility I would argue the visibility is actually worse here and to take a look at our altitude you're going to be amazed when you see the map and see how much ground we've covered Scud running essentially at between 15 to 1,600 feet and we are literally just hugging staying right underneath this cloud layer here we're just flying right along but once we get a little bit closer to Long Island Sound that haze layer will start to lift and you can see that a little bit in the distance - and we're able to finally start a climb so when we jump ahead and there'll be some jumps here where we kind of fast forward I'll try to point those out for you as well then we're going to make a climb up and he feels a little bit better because I can finally get some altitude underneath him despite he's been Scud running through New York at 1500 feet and visibility reported as low as four statute miles and Hayes with a guy who has to be somewhere in his mind and has no instrument rating it's certainly not a situation or conditions I'd want to put myself in and that's why I always stress you guys about having your heart set personal minimums because they prevent things like this when you see a situation and say geez I have to be there but what is my backup plan the backup plan here should have been I'm one of the most powerful men in the state let me call my Learjet pilot let me call my helicopter pilot and find a different way to get over there so what you're going to see as that Sun really begins to set and that temperature gets closer and closer that dew point visibilities can get worse and worse and now we're going to fast forward to like the Bridgeport New Haven Connecticut area you'll see that jump and we've jumped ahead look at the altimeter you can see like I told you we are finally able to climb but we're still hugging this overcast layer that's really starting to loom you can see where we've gone to bottom left of your screen Essex County up to the Hudson River across towards Bridgeport and we've now reached the Long Island Sound now this is actually a halfway decent plan I would say and maybe this is his thinking if I can keep the Long Island Sound the water off to my right and land off to my left and just continue I'll have a short little hop of about 12 nautical miles across to Martha's Vineyard to make it as short as possible hey that's the goal that that's not a bad idea if I was going to fly that probably around I'd fly I'd want to minimize my time over the ocean it makes absolute sense to do that so that part of it is sound what I'm not crazy about is you'll see as it begins to get darker and darker he says I've got to get there and sighs to make the plunge across the ocean now really this flight a lot of people don't know was supposed to occur two hours earlier night was him supposed to be a factor but JFK was actually stuck in a traffic jam that delayed him over two hours the reason we know this is there was another pilot heading to the airport to do some paperwork would have taken the exact route JFK jr. would have taken and he was stuck in the exact same traffic jam now let me ask you this what kind of mindset are you after you've been stuck in traffic for two hours are you in any sort of frame of mind to go and fly an airplane no you're frustrated you probably wouldn't pass the I'm safe checklist on that s part stress on I'm safe because you're stressed out you've got to be there now I'm running two hours late now this flight is going to run into the night and you can see we start to build these chain of events of an accident and they start to snowball and they start to compound and unfortunately in this case night is the one that really allows it to compound let's fast forward now to like the Groton New London area of Connecticut you can see we just faded and jumped ahead their altitude still about the same but visibility is getting worse and worse from Bridgeport parallel that Long Island Sound up to the Groton New London area and as we hit this this is where JFK jr. starts to make some different decisions he's looking for keys whereas Martha's Vineyard I can start to see some of these islands you're going to start to see Block Island come into the picture and you're going to start to see that visibility continue to degrade in fact there was a pilot shooting an approach I believe it was United Airlines we shoot an approach into Providence at this time and the approach controller Providence called out and said listen I've got somebody I've got a primary radar on him I'm not talking to him I don't know much about him when he's crossing right through your localizer right now you need to watch for him and the captain comes back on he's looking he's looking he's got these pass years behind him and he's looking he's looking and finally he spots them and the captain's words were listen I don't know who that guy is but he sure doesn't belong up here today and that person that cut him off and went blazing right through that localizer was none other than JFK jr. not talking to anybody not saying a word just trying to get there he had what we call get their itis when you feel you have to be somewhere but aviation friends we know you never have to be anywhere you're going to start to see the moon appear in some of these shots here you're going to watch that visibility get worse and worse as that temperature approaches that dew point if you look real hard you'll start to see Block Island Rhode Island out there the visibilities kind of Bad's a little bit hard to see but it's at about this point where JFK juniors / Block Island he realizes how dark it's getting and says geez I have just got to get to Martha's Vineyard so he ditches his plan his idea of keeping land on my left and Long Island Sound or water out to my right and decides to make the cut across and that's where spatial disorientation really starts to creep in so as we approach this point and as that Sun begins to set I want you to practice your best instruments can for the clips that show us inside the cockpit I want you to work on whether you use the t scan the wagon wheel method ground school members know what I'm talking about I want you to practice your instrument scan because I'm going to show you this all the way up until the crash and let's see what could we have done differently what could we have done a little bit better and you're going to see how it begins to compound this chain of events is beginning to snowball and here you see it the Sun is beginning to set our flight to Martha's Vineyard has now become a sunset flight and you look out in front of you and it is just blue on blue and very soon as you can see becomes black on black anyone who's flown over a sparsely populated area or made a flight over the ocean over a large body of water at night knows what I'm talking about here when it's black on black like this so together let's practice our instrument scan here so we're flying we've descended down we're trying to make it into Martha's Vineyard as fast as possible trying to use some that altitude and turn it into a little bit of ground speed I've got to get there I just want to beat this Sun coming down but the visibility is continuing to get worse as that earth cools look our absent indicator I'm diving to the left but wait for a second I fix it I got my wings almost level I'm bringing that back on up okay I'm level I maintain an air speak a little bit in the yellow arc but that's okay but wait I'm pitching up now a little bit too high breaking to the right as that nose comes down but I'm trying to fix it here still relatively have it under control and a level descent now coming down put a little bit faster than I should here and a little bit over to the left almost a descending steep turn now as we bring it over to the left trying to fix it trying to fix it wait I think he's got it under control levels the wings here for just a second but then here comes one big pitch up notice our altitude - here coming up to the right to the right and braking braking to the right to the right to the right one thousand feet just like that into the ocean what's the irony of all this well he essentially was in a graveyard spiral to the right or a spin could you say to the right what element might I want to use to recover from that to the right maybe I'd want to apply a little bit of left rudder the exact same ankle I had broken just 23 days earlier I'm not saying if JFK junior didn't break his ankle he'd be alive today I'm just saying it's a little bit ironic that that's the final little bit that happened there when I needed my left rudder the most and that case to really make that recovery so let me ask you a question here what would you have done differently in that situation I wouldn't have gone most you would say I think that's a safe bet let's build up now together that chain of events of this accident and it started so early with the broken ankle here continuing with get there itis they're expecting me I've got to make this toast I'm making a speech I'm stuck in traffic I'm already running late I have just got to get their little night experience what we know in that accident aircraft was point eight well he at least had three hours to become a private pilot and we know the point eight in his airplane so three point eight hours at night you guys know how hard it is to fly at night sometimes next one no weather briefing maybe calling up and hearing those famous words VFR not recommended is what mister JFK jr. needed to hear no instrument rating and like I shared with you it took them three attempts to pass lesson number one the kicker for me is refusing the CF eyes help I want to do it alone as what he said his failure to divert I did a little bit of math a little bit of research on this keep in mind for a good portion of our flight it was ocean off to our right I looked at airports that had fuel and had a beacon there were public airports that he would have passed along that route of flight within ten nautical miles to his left ten novel miles to his right we passed 57 different airports fifty-seven chances to divert to land to get out that we passed up here and lastly it led to our accident you see all accidents like this are a chain of events if we break the chain if JFK jr. takes his CFI with him well JFK jr. could be alive today if maybe he wasn't stuck in the traffic jam had straighting and got a proper weather briefing maybe I'm just speculating JFK jr. is alive today you see these little things seem so subtle like a broken ankle or no weather briefing but when you stretch them out and give them leverage and they compound like that they lead to an accident and doesn't happen the day up it could happen 23 days ago with a broken ankle you've got to break the chain of events early on so now knowing that I ask you again what would you do differently I hope your answer is I would have broken the chain early on and one way to do that is to have what I call hard set personal minimum numbers I will not go flying if the clouds are lower than blank visibility less than blank or winds greater than blank you see when you have hard set numbers you can read a METAR and go okay I said I'm not going flying if the visibility is less than 8 the METAR says visibility 7 I'm not going flying today I've got a back-up plan if I ever have to be somewhere that back-up plan should be to drive to find another means to get there but have hard set personal minimum numbers and find yourself working through the pave checklist the P and the pave checklist is for our pilot how are you could you the pilot pass and I'm safe checklist how are you the pilot in that airplane how is the airplane is it current are you comfortable in that airplane has it met all the VFR and ifr requirements for what you're going to use it for how are you the pilot in the environment is the environment new to you or how's the environment weather-wise does it meet your personal minimums and then e external pressures do you have to be somewhere are you commercial pilot you're being compensated to be somewhere in aviation it's so hard to say no but you say no and you live to fly another day say no so that is the one the best things you can do as a pilot having those hard set personal minimum numbers here in is all in summary now guys all acts have a chain of events break the accident chain early on and have your heart set personal minimum numbers I hope you guys enjoy this I hope you guys will come out and see one of my new seminars you think this is good I've got some other great accident analysis in the pipeline that I'm going to work through you'll be doing another good pilot tour that you'll see it's Sun and fun and ash gosh I hope you are loving the movie flying again if you haven't seen it yet go to flying again movie.com to check it out and if that inspired you and you want to get back in the cockpit or you want to learn to fly for the first time check out our online ground school at ground school academy.com we have the craziest guarantee in the industry pass your check right or I'll pay for it if you complete our online ground school and failure check right on the oral examination I will write you a check from the bank of Jason and Ashley Schappert for the four five six hundred bucks whatever your check ride cost ground school academy.com to check it out and learn more if you love my teaching style if you love presentations like this you're going to love our online ground school you're going to love our 90-minute that's a feature-length documentary check it all out links are underneath this video enjoy the rest of your day and most importantly remember what a good pilot is always learning have a great day guys see ya flying again is not just for rusty pilots but pilots of all experience levels and even those non pilots it's the story of someone giving up something they love in aviation for someone they love maybe a child or spouses the funny thing about aviation is always has a way of bringing us back join us as we watch these pilots flying again family is a reason why I got into flying family is the reason I stopped on and our family is a great reason to start flying again you

Channel: MzeroA Flight Training

Views: 321,075

Rating: 4.3518167 out of 5

Keywords: JFK Jr Crash, MzeroA Flight Training

Id: PqnTA7KQFYE

Length: 33min 25sec (2005 seconds)

Published: Thu Jan 21 2016