Iran Deal: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

diplomacy the thing that keeps us from immediately going to war with our enemies and from telling Lichtenstein how we really feel you are a snobby polyp on Switzerland and they should have you removed immediately it is a busy time for diplomacy in the Trump White House what we've done planning the North Korea summit weighing what to do about Syria and a state visit with Makran next week none of which is helped by the fact that no one has seen Jared in months where is Jared how can we make crucial foreign policy decisions without the White House's goodest boy and on top of all that there's actually a massive decision that Trump has to make just around the corner the Iran deal is coming up after months of will he won't he read her it the nuclear deal is on the president's mind once again this week as he faces a May 12th deadline to decide whether to recertify it there's a growing consensus that this time around it may finally be dead once and for all well that is not a good sign for the Iran deal because whenever there is a will he won't he question regarding Trump you can pretty much guarantee that he will pick the worst possible option will he pull the u.s. out of the Paris Accord he did will he try and ban Muslims from entering the country he did when he looked directly into the Sun during the solar eclipse while pointing at it as if to say look the Sun he did of course he did of course he did that and Trump has made it very clear how he feels about the Iran deal he's called it terrible a catastrophe stupid insane incompetent really sad horrible horrendous horrible horrible terrible incompetent and one of the dumbest and most dangerous misjudgments ever which is coincidentally also exactly what Trump writes in Don Junior's birthday card every year is appropriate and and those criticisms are just the tip of a very large iceberg I think it's maybe the worst deal I've ever seen I think it's the worst deal I've ever seen negotiated my number one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran this is the worst deal we got nothing we got nothing they have so out negotiated our people because our people have babies they have no idea what they're doing they will find out that if I win we're not babies there's no more being babies anymore oh that's right Iran there's no more being babies anymore we're done wearing pull-ups and going tinkle in our Oshkosh we can put our own store in our Juice box thank you very much because we are big boys and we have shoes with laces and also a bike that has spider-man on it that our uncle Jim got us for Christmas because we are big boys and there's no more being babies anymore no more look make make no mistake this deal dying could have huge lasting consequences which makes it a little odd that nobody is really paying much attention to the fact that on May 12th if Trump doesn't feel like this deal has been fixed to his liking he may refuse to waive a key sanction which could threaten the entire thing so tonight let's look at the Iran deal what it is why Trump hates it so much and what's likely to happen if he kills him to start it probably would help to know just a little of the history between the u.s. and Iran which has been fraught to put it mildly here is a ludicrously brief recap in 1953 the CIA helped orchestrate a coup to depose Iran's democratically elected prime minister replacing him with the Shah who was friendly to the US and to whom funny story we supplied weapons and a nuclear reactor the Shah was overthrown in a revolution in 1979 and dozens of American diplomats were held hostage eventually the Ayatollah Khomeini took power converting the country to an Islamic theocracy that is in an insulting ly brief history of the last 60 years alone and there is a lot that I've left out there but if you do want to learn more just subscribe to my new podcast talking Tehran with John Oliver and james van der beek is just a small taste of it let's pick up where we left off with the privatization of state-owned enterprises in Iran you're talking about the work of Rafsanjani no no I'm not talking about that John you do this every time I'm talking about the underappreciated roles of moderates like Nettie buzzer oh please find a big thumping on again about moderates like Mac D buzzer gunshots erection they never thought they deserved raphson Johnnie was a glory I'll tell you we got the backing of moderates he was nothing you should agree we need an ad for MailChimp right now okay okay John do you send a lot of mass emails it's a pretty good podcast it's pretty good and and look if you didn't know that james Van Der Beek was an expert in Iranian history expand your expectations of what people are capable but the point is in many Americans Minds Iran's image is now reduced to a place where US flags are set on fire and whether a chance of death to America and the truth is that is still part of Iranian political culture much of the power in the country is held by conservative clerics who forced religious compliance at home and pursue an aggressive foreign policy abroad they are widely believed to be supporting the Houthi rebels in Yemen and Bashar al-assad in Syria and are a major funder of the terrorist group Hezbollah and the current Ayatollah is still saying stuff like this and sure I love the tall fury by God's favor and grace nothing called the Zionist regime will exist in the region by twenty five years from now okay so it's not the most important part there but the country's name is Israel not the Zionist regime if you're gonna make appalling threats against a nation at least get their name right I'm sure that you would not like it if I called Iran holds papac Harmony's palace of Persians would you know you wouldn't like it you wouldn't like it at all but the truth is that is only part of the picture of Iran there's also a large educated relatively liberal middle class among whom opinions of America tend to be considerably more positive you can see it in the fact that they have knockoffs of American restaurants they're called mash Donald's ZFC and pizza hats which are obviously direct ripoffs of marsh Donald's zfg and pizza how and Iran's current president Hassan rouhani is relatively moderate by Iranian standards even going so far as to tweet a few years back I wish all Jews especially Iranian Jews a blessed Rosh Hashana and when an Iranian leader begins a statement with the words I wish all Jews and actually sticks the landing you kind of have to hand it to him there and pro-western views are particularly pronounced among young people born after the Revolution in fact a few years back Thrasher Magazine my favorite skateboard magazine did a story on Iranian skateboarding culture which has thrived despite one considerable obstacle Iran as under sanctions right now and it's really hard for them to impor thing from the West this kind of put the skaters in a position where they were actually forced to figure out a way to make their own words we saw one kids getting a board made of solid steel which is kind of crazy it's an Iranian skateboard it's made of metal sick deck bra although if it was me I'd double up on the grip tape on my top sheet so we don't slam gonna go sketchy on the nose grind I do hope you enjoyed that joke because it took one of my writers 50 minutes on the skateboarding Wikipedia page to research it but that's true but don't those sanctions actually want one of the reasons that the Iran deal happened in the first place because after the international community discovered that Iran was secretly building up a nuclear program it was understandably concerned and imposed crippling sanctions affecting every part of Iran's economy from oil to plane parts to banking and investment one key motivator in Iran coming to the table to negotiate was relaxing some of those sanctions and they got that all the partners in this deal the US Britain France Germany the EU Russia and China agreed to lift specific sanctions on Iran so that's what Iran got out of this deal I guess the question is what did we get and the answer to that is quite a lot it requires Iran not to enrich uranium to weapons-grade for 15 years to reduce its number of operating nuclear centrifuges from 19,000 to just over 5,000 and to increase the time it would take to make a bomb from a few months to a year it's true and those would be concessions from Iran the deal required them to reduce their stockpile of uranium by 98% and mandated that they would not enrich uranium above three point six seven percent which is significantly lower than the 90% needed for weapons and try to make a bomb at under four percent enrichment is like trying to get drunk off a single can of PBR you can't it cannot be done there's no way to do it not unless you're a gerbil and even then only if you're drinking on an empty stomach and look that that's not all the deal also had strict conditions for monitoring and verification to make sure that they were in compliance and if they weren't we could snap those sanctions back it was a pretty good deal and yet many felt it was too generous to Iran Benjamin Netanyahu called it a bad mistake of historic proportions and here in the u.s. there was a hard opposition with ads like this [Music] [Music] [Music] Wow that is a hostile way to make your point there is only one ad that you could completely justify being interrupted by a nuclear explosion and it is this one [Music] [Applause] good I'm glad those children are dead but but for all the talk over here about Iran getting everything they wanted you should know that Iranian hardliners were furious arguing that they had given up way too much Iran's lead negotiator was this guy javad zarif and some chilling cell phone footage emerged of him being confronted by a member of the iranian parliament and just listened to what was said to him if Isis comes to our country you will be the first to take the blow that is both scary and honestly not really consistent with how Isis operates they generally don't come to a country and say okay nobody dies until we find that first guy nobody kills anyone until that first guy takes the first blow we do this in order or we don't do it at all where Isis let's not come off like crazy people but but despite all that opposition on both sides the deal was signed which was a huge achievement or as Donald Trump would put it a complete disaster I've studied this issue in great detail I would say actually greater by far than anybody else believe me Oh believe me and it's a bad deal okay so let's be absolutely clear here Donald Trump has never studied anything in great detail if you asked him what color his wife's eyes are he would say 34d but firm so so what specifically does Trump think is wrong with this deal well he has a number of complaints and the first has to do with monitoring their nuclear facilities in terms of you know surveillance they have the right to self inspect how about that or their major the most dangerous they can self inspect okay so that's just not true they cannot self inspect the deal allows for regular monitoring of all declared nuclear sites one of which even has 24-hour video surveillance and it's done by the International Atomic Energy Agency the UN's nuclear watchdog which has already confirmed ten successive times that Iran is complying with the deal and fun fact if Iran complies just once more they win a free meal at Pizza hat so that's just an extra little fun incentive for them to stay in line and that is not the only thing that Trump gets wrong about the deals inspection process how about this we see something wrong or we think there's something wrong so we have to wait 24 days before we go in but before the 24 days start there's a whole procedure so who knows how long it could be could be six months okay so what he's talking about there is the fact that while again inspectors have constant access to their declared sites they also get access to any other site military or civilian where they suspect undeclared nuclear activity now Iran can push back on those suspicions but once the IAEA demands access Iran has just 24 days max to let them in and it is a pretty tall order to completely clean up every trace of an isotope with a half-life of 710 million years in just 24 days think about it that's not even long enough to adequately clean your apartment after you rent it out on air B&B how is there Jesus inside my piano what monster would do this this isn't an accident it must be why they wanted a piano but but but one of trumps other complaints is that some parts of this deal expire in 10 or 15 years and as he sees it that leads to an obvious problem the bigger problem is that they can keep the terms and still get the bomb by simply running out the clock again that is simply not true they can't keep the terms and get the bomb the terms expressly forbid them from doing that what Iran could do in theory is wait for parts of the deal to expire in 10 years then it could ramp up its nuclear program getting it closer to a bomb but here's the thing if the deal blows up Iran could start doing that right now in zero years and zero is less than 10 trust us we ran the numbers on this ourselves I spent a week at kangra speaking with the location chair of mathematics Michael Cates and and I feel virtually certain zero is less than 10 also you should know before the deal Iran had enough enriched uranium to eventually create eight to ten bombs which remember they gave up meaning they currently have enough for zero bombs which again is less than ten I cannot stress enough the extent to which 0 is less than 10 it just is we have to agree on that or we're all and look it is important to remember this deal isn't just between the u.s. and Iran there are multiple countries involved none of whom are anxious to change its terms even Britain's Boris Johnson a man who looks like what would happen if Draco Malfoy got an MBA and developed a drinking problem even he thinks a renegotiation is a non-starter I don't think anybody has come up with a better idea near think it's on incumbent on those who will pose the jcpoa really too to come up with that better solution exactly you can't just be against something without having any plan for what comes next Trump is like a cat on an airplane trying to escape from its carrier okay but if you get out then what do you have a cat sized parachute in there with you what's your plan here obviously I'm not gonna say capsized parachute without showing you a cat in a parachute that is just a given I wouldn't do that to you and look what Wall Trump has articulated broadly what he wants some of his demands are complete non starters he wants a ban on ballistic missile testing unconstrained access to any military sites and no expiration of any clause in the agreement ever and if those are deal-breakers for him this deal is broken and what you would hope that someone would talk him round Trump has surrounded himself with Iran Hawks his nominee for Secretary of State is Mike Pompeo who's reportedly said of Iran we know they're cheating we're just not seeing it which is a hell of a statement from a guy who gives rim jobs to guerillas and short-short sure no one has ever seen Mike Pompeo giving a real job to a gorilla but that's how we know he does it think about it and even more worrisome is john bolton his new national security adviser bolton is a far-right conservative who Donald Trump had originally considered for the job in 2016 but reportedly hesitated because of his walrus style mustache and I've got to say I agree with Trump on that one that moustache is a huge problem he looks like he's possessed by the ghost of Borat the point is the point here is Bolton has long been a critic of the Iran deal I think the deal is inherently flawed I think it's a strategic debacle for the United States you can always tinker around the edges and the question is whether putting lipstick on a pig is really going to make a difference here come on this deal is preventing Iran from getting nuclear weapons it's not a pig with lipstick besides pigs don't need lipstick to look beautiful you superficial these are beautiful just the way they are I think you need to conform your completely unrealistic standards of farm animal beauty hashtag 22nd both of us gone much further than that remember that ad with the exploding family his group made that ad and if you're wondering well what's his alternative to an Iran deal it can't be war with Iran can it well just watch this speech that he gave to a group of Iranian dissidents in Paris last year the declared policy of the United States of America should be the overthrow of the mullahs regime in Tehran [Music] [Applause] the behavior and the objectives of the regime are not going to change and therefore the only solution is to change the regime itself and that's and that's why before 2019 we here will celebrate in Tehran thank you very much holy to my ears that is the National Security Advisor calling for the invasion of Iran before the end of the year which is so flagrantly horrific your brain can barely absorb it it's like the Barefoot Contessa announcing that she's going to murder and cook her husband Jeffrey before 2019 at that point she's been so obvious if no one actively stops her it's partly on us so look unless Congress or our European allies figure out something they can sell to trump as a fix it seems that Trump is going to reimpose sanctions on May 12th and if he does that this deal could collapse and the damage of that would be long-term and potentially irreversible just set aside the fact that you would alienate a whole generation of younger Iranians who support this deal just think about what this would do to America's credibility why would North Korea consider signing a nuclear agreement with us if we just broke the agreement we signed only three years ago with Iran and if this deal dies and Iran receives its nuclear weapons program it could then start a nuclear arms race in the Middle East and the problem here is I can't offer you much hope there is not really a write your Congressman solution to this we could be in serious trouble because two of trumps top advisors are like him dead set against this deal and they're getting backup from Sean Hannity who showed the president watches so much advisors refer to him as the shadow chief of staff Hannity hates this deal too so there is not really a way for us to get a moderating voice into this conversation short of buying time on Hannity show this week and running an ad like this but how are you hey there Donald sorry for rock your supper I'm a cowboy don't like pain when I cap and I'm here to tell you the Iran deal may not be perfect but it helps restrict Iran's ability to start making a bomb for at least 10 years you blow up the deal and that turns into zero years and if I've learned one thing from all these years of cowboying and cathing it's that zero is way less than 10 that's correct also you really want to listen to a guy with a mustache like this don't do it Donald don't do it hey does anyone smell gas oh my god the stove that ad is scheduled to run during Hannity in the DC area on fox news this week where it'll presumably confuse a lot of people and I'm not saying that it's going to change anything but at least we will know that we tried [Music] you

Channel: LastWeekTonight

Views: 10,236,757

Keywords:

Id: 5xnZ_CeTqyM

Length: 21min 22sec (1282 seconds)

Published: Sun Apr 22 2018

Reddit Comments

[u/MattPH1218]

This bit might have been unclear - the current Ayatollah in Iran is not the same guy who seized power in 1979. That one died in 89. Iranian history is extremely interesting but also very confusing.

[u/cjn13]

I didn't know how sad I would be that the Talkin' Tehran podcast isn't a real thing.

Also, the Catheter Cowboy bit never gets old

[u/themanifoldcuriosity]

Shit fact: Pizza Hut is actually Pizza Hat in German. Don't even need to change the logo.

[u/[deleted]]

That Kars-4-Kids explosion was incredibly cathartic.

"I'M GLAD THOSE CHILDREN ARE DEAD."

[u/ani625]

9:36: "Good, good. I'm glad those children are dead"

LMAO.

[u/feelitrealgood]

As a math major with a 2.4 GPA from Arizona State, I can confirm,

0 is less than or at least equal to 10.

[u/tnorton0621]

0<10

[u/MattPH1218]

There really can't ever be enough Vanderbeek.

[u/Audrin]

0 is less than 10

Fake news.