Who Will Break The All-Time Strikeout Record? The Race for 2598 l Baseball Bits

shout out to seat geek for sponsoring this video seat geek is the best way to buy tickets online support the channel by using code foolish at checkout for $20 off your first purchase baseballs next strikeout keen walks among us or maybe I should say strikes out among us in our last episode of baseball pits we discussed old Hoss radburn's 59 wins in 1884 an impossible record to break with how modern pitchers are utilized today we're talking about a record that will almost certainly be broken in the next 10 to 12 years and that's the career leader for strikeouts the strikeout King sorry I'll have to apologize real quick my intern Tristan edits these videos and the kid is just he's dense you know he doesn't understand that we're talking about hitters who strike out the most not pitchers with the most strikeouts hey Tristan no one's gonna catch Nolan Ryan okay you fundamentally misunderstand these are our candidates for who could challenge for the career record in strikeouts get a good look can you guess who they are because my artwork quality is more inconsistent than Fernando Rodney if not we'll meet them individually soon enough and also run a simulation on out-of-the-park baseball to see who comes out on top but first pop quiz of all hitters in baseball history who has the most career strikeouts time's up the correct answer is Reggie Jackson mr. October who struck out two thousand five hundred ninety-seven times in his 21-year career he's the current strikeout king but when I think about strikeouts he's not necessarily the first person that comes to mind for me I tend to think about Adam Dunn a man who strikes out more than me at singles night my hunch is backed up by raw data as well on a rate basis Adam Dunn struck out significantly more often than Jackson but Jackson had the advantage of about 3,000 more plate appearances mr. October was a mere strikeout accumulator by today's standards he's the reigning champion because he played 21 years but he only topped out at 171 strikeouts in his best finger quotes best season that number was surpassed by eight players in 2018 but these sweet savory strikeout sums will soon be beaten strikeout rates are higher than they have ever been and there's no end in sight the swing and miss merchants of current day baseball put up strikeout totals that would make any legend blush so let's talk about why and how exactly this new strikeout king will come to be I want to start off with some methodology if the task at hand is breaking a professional sports career record there's a few different characteristics you need to look at the fun bit is that you don't have to be strong in each characteristic Barry Bonds and Hank Aaron finished their careers within seven home runs of one another and yet they went about racking up these homers completely differently Hank Aaron debuted in the majors a year and a half younger than bonds and finished his career with about 1,300 more plate appearances Bonds hit 73 home runs in a season Aaron never hit more than 47 and bonds also had way fewer opportunities to hit these home runs when you consider how often he was intentionally walked meaning that he was never given the chance to hit one out they aged completely differently as well most likely because bonds is a big fat cheater who was allowed to combine the savviness of the grizzled late thirties vet with the athleticism bat speed of someone many years this Junior whereas Hank Aaron had two bout a father time like a normal person because taking greenies for one game isn't the same as pumping your body with entire pharmacy if steadily regimented body augmenting super drugs ok sorry I had to get that out this is all to point out that Hank Aaron hit 245 homeruns after his age 34 season while bonds yeah you might call that a late surge back to those key characteristics I've written four of them number one is an early start pretty simple if you're trying to accumulate in any career stat category starting your career early in the majors is a huge plus Aaron judge debuted in the majors at age 24 Bryce Harper had 566 strikeouts at the end of his age 23 season number 2 is rate the rate of which you strike out is important as well being able to rack up 200 plus strikeout seasons consistently gives you some leeway so you don't have to play until you're 40 wine-like Reggie Jackson number 3 is productivity this isn't productivity and striking out this is productivity in terms of being a good player if you look at the top 10 career strikeout list you have for Hall of Famers a rod and the rest of the guys were extremely productive hitters as well you need to be a very good player in spite of your strikeouts or else your team is gonna stop giving you plate appearances number 4 is the if iasts and hardest to project but that's how your skill set will age if I'm picking between Mike Trout and Trevor story for whose skill set will age better I'll take trout he'll contribute defensive value as a corner outfielder or even designated hitter when athleticism declines and he has the discipline to walk 100 plus times per season on the flip side guys like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron judge might worry you a bit could their big bodies break down faster with their huge strike zone's render them useless if they don't have the bat speed or raw power they add in their 20s it's speculation but it's worth keeping in mind that gives a nice strong list of four things to look at the early start strikeout rate general productivity and ability of their skillset to age so let's look at our potential challengers for the strikeout record ladies your first suitor is none other than Giancarlo Stanton don't call it mic Giancarlo is six foot six has a 325 million dollar contract and loves long walks on the beach he'd also be your strikeout King if he plays his cards right alright enough of that Stanton absolutely gets a plus grade for his early start he was just 20 years old when he became an everyday player for the Marlins his strikeout rate stats are strong as well he sports a 28 percent career strikeout rate and nearly broke 30 percent last season so he gets a plus grade there up next is his productivity Stanton is one of the league's premier stars having eclipsed 300 home runs in his age 28 season that's good for eighth all-time Lashley is how a skill set will age I'd say it's questionable stan has had injury issues earlier in his career and that big body might not be conducive to success in his late 30s we'll give it a maybe all-in-all I would say this Stanton might have the best chance but let's meet our other contestants up next is his teammate Aaron judge very similar players both are freakishly large Yankees corner outfielders that dominate the statcast exit velocity leaderboards but Judge does have a big disadvantage and that he didn't become an everyday player until his age 25 season that's a double- grade but he lacks and strikeout experience he may make up for an strikeout rape he currently sports an astronomical 31.7% career strikeout rate that's nearly a third of his plate appearances a double plus rating for that he has to remain productive while striking out though and so far he has judge burst onto the scene with a monster' 2017 campaign where he finished second in MVP voting to Jose Altuve and he still managed to rack up a league-leading 208 strikeouts judge is one of the league's premiere stars and a strikeout machine longevity could be a problem though pretty much everything I said about Staunton applies to judge so leave it as a neutral rating now to be safe keep in mind this is really hard to project next up is Bryce Harper never heard of him he made his debut at 19 years 195 days old so he gets a huge bonus for his early start plus plus his strikeout rate however isn't so clear he has struck out in 21.1% of his career plate appearances which isn't particularly confidence-inspiring but in 2018 he struck out 20 4.3 percent of the time if he can maintain a rate more like that he'll have a better shot but for now I'm leaving him with a - as far as productivity Bryce Harper's about as divisive as it gets detractors will point out to his 1.3 be wore in his final year with the Nets as well as an inconsistent track record apart from his 2015 MVP campaign supporters will simply note that he's been one of the leaks premier hitters ever since he hit the scene in 2012 I tend to believe that Harper is a legitimate superstar and we'll give him a plus grade here I also like his longevity want to know why the Phillies just committed to paying him until he's 39 they might as well use them wait what's that sound Michael Nelson trout the Millville meteor he's good right trout like Harper made his debut at 19 but he didn't get the full season workload until age 20 so he just gets a plus there trout strikeout rate sits at 21.2% for his career but it has fluctuated quite a bit from season the season back in 2014 Mike Trout struck out 26 point 1 percent of the time and walked 11 point eight percent of the time he also won MVP he then decided that he'd like to strike out less and walk more so he continued to drop those rates year after year after year after year you get the picture trout's no strikeout machine next up is his productivity has Mike Trout been productive and finally you project his longevity let's see he's the best hitter in baseball he'll play corner outfield in his older years yeah he'll be fine trout is really a longevity play here it's going to take a lot of plate appearances to get him close but it's still possible hey do you know who is kind of the opposite of Mike Trout in this strike out race how about Joey Gallo Gallo debuted at age 21 but he didn't get a full season of playing time until his age 23 season so we have to dock him there but then we get to his strikeout rate mr. Joseph Gallo is a strikeout deity he makes Adam Dunn look like Juan Pierre seriously 37.6% of his plate appearances are strikeouts 37.6% he's off my strikeout spectrum is he productive it depends on who you ask he has been good for about a hundred and fifteen WRC plus and 2 to 3 Wins Above Replacement these past two seasons but his strikeouts have him teetering on the edge of usability at times even on a team like the Rangers I'd say he's productive but not nearly as productive as the names mentioned so we'll give him a minus and then there's longevity how will his skillset age I'm going to hazard a guess and say not gracefully Adam Dunn had an excellent career but he played his last game at age 34 Gallo may last a little bit longer but I doubt he'll be pushing 40 like some of these guys me another - that leads us to our last contender but ironically our last contender also has a chance to break Reggie Jackson's record before any of these guys he doesn't seem like an obvious pick but I'd like to bring up Justin Upton Upton absolutely gets props for an early start with a cup of coffee at age 19 and regular playing time at age 20 his career strikeout rate is twenty five point three percent but he's just posted three consecutive seasons with at least a twenty eight percent rate that gives him one thousand seven hundred and twenty strikeouts for his career which puts him thirty third all-time in less than nine hundred away from Reggie Jackson and he's only 31 his next five seasons go like his last five seasons he'll get there but that's a big if productivity is there he posted great seasons in 2017 and 2018 as he is shown to be a solid corner outfielder with 30 home run pop the longevity however it's questionable Upton is good but not a superstar and he's starting 2019 with a turf toe injury the waters are murky here it wouldn't surprise me if he played until he was 39 but it also wouldn't surprise me if he was out of the league in just a few short years the runners are at their marks the number to beat is 2,000 597 now all I have to do is boot up out of the park baseball and simulate some seasons a change just occurred you might not have felt it but I know I did we just left our real concrete baseball world and entered the hypothetical whatever happens here has no bearing on real life but it can help us understand what the strikeout leaderboard could look like oh I don't know 15 years from now out of the park baseball is a game that I feature on this channel from time to time it's an in-depth manager and GM simulator similar to football manager it's basically to spreadsheet baseball for nerds it's also a good tool for simulating the next few years of baseball so I'm going to boot up a save on the default settings and do just that two things I'd like to note one this isn't an ad for out of the park baseball and two the game starts with Justin Upton injured just like he has in real life ban the 2021 season just ended Justin Upton has 2182 strikeouts now but his careers in decline Reggie Jackson is within sight but perhaps more impressive is the performance of Giancarlo Stanton who has averaged about 200 strikeouts per season over the last three seasons he also plays for the race now that doesn't seem right hey hey Tristan Tristan you'll never believe who Giancarlo is playing for in 2021 yep 2024 that's my stop I think Kanye is supposed to be president now Stan is just a prolific swing and miss ER in this safe posting 200 plus strikeout seasons with these I don't think he'll do the same in real life but my simulation has him breaking the record at the tail end of his age 34 season which is coincidentally the same age where Justin Upton's career is cut short sorry Jacob better luck in the next alternate universe Harper enters the race at this point as he currently sits at 23rd all-time also Mike Trout has the most patriotic strikeout total possible Gallo is surging but he hit 181 2024 he probably doesn't have much longer 20:27 ends if the earth hasn't been vaporized I'm sure we'll still be playing baseball Stanton has broken 3000 judge has led the league in strikeouts for the past five seasons trot and Harper are still cruising Gallo is done Stan is the king for now but is he done oh I'm being told it'll play one last game he steps up to the plate and well what do you expect nonetheless he retires with 649 career home runs now let's take it to the very end we've gone for more seasons to the conclusion of 2031 Bryce Harper retires at the end of his contract signifying the end of our little experiment in the end Stanton judge and Harper are able to eclipse Reggie Jackson but Stan this crowd is the true king of striking out a job well done in my mind and like all simulations I'm sure this will turn out to be 100% accurate that being said I'm also curious to hear what you guys have to say do you think one of these players will take over the strikeout crown and which one and why is there a potential candidate you think I missed please let me know either in the comments or you can tweet me at foolish be beat and now it's my turn to let you know about seat geek Steve geek is an app that makes take it buying ridiculously easy do you plan on catching a game this season seat geek has you covered they rate each deal on a scale of one to ten and show you pictures from each vantage point you can order through your browser or if you're on mobile you can download the app right in my video's description so if you want to catch a ballgame the season and support the channel use my code foolish for $20 off your first purchase once again big shout out to see geek for sponsoring this episode of baseball bits [Music] hey hey Tristan Tristan Tristan if this video doesn't get enough SeatGeek downloads you're gonna have to start selling your weird jewelry on Etsy again yeah that's why I thought this thing huh

Channel: Foolish Baseball

Views: 666,768

Keywords: all time strikeout leader, Giancarlo Stanton strikeouts, Aaron Judge strikeouts, Bryce Harper strikeouts, MLB strikeout king, most strikeouts by a hitter, Reggie Jackson strikeout record, Joey Gallo strikeouts, foolish baseball, baseball bits, Who Will Break The All-Time Strikeout Record? The Race for 2598 l Baseball Bits, Out of the Park Baseball 20, OOTP 20, OOTP 20 simulation, all time strikeout record, mlb career strikeout leader, mlb, baseball, seatgeek

Id: TfjNZnXNp1M

Length: 15min 29sec (929 seconds)

Published: Tue Apr 16 2019

Reddit Comments

[u/[deleted]]

Good use of OOTP

[u/shipguy55]

Foolish Baseball's videos keep on getting better

[u/drprun3]

Stanton already has more career strikeouts than Pujols

[u/Noy_Telinu]

That Mike Trout video game segment...

[u/PrussianBleu]

how to middle infielders age? curious about high K% players like Baez, Mondesi, etc

[u/RagingAcid]

that aaron judge scares the hell out of me

[u/homiej420]

CHRIS DAVIS?

[u/kerrickter13]

Basketball is blowing up on 3 point attempts and Baseball is blowing up on Ks. I don't know if I like these trends. They need to take it to the hole and put the ball in play.

[u/MetaKoopa99]

Love this guy's content