Justin Verlander's Impossible Inning: A Study in Velocity and Spin Rate l Baseball Bits

[Music] what would a perfect inning look like from a pitcher's perspective some would say three quick pitches three quick outs others would point to an immaculate inning which is nine consecutive strikes to sit down the side the latter feet has only been accomplished 93 times in MLB history that's becoming increasingly common due to rising strikeout rates [Applause] 2017 alone a record eight pitchers recorded immaculate innings to put that into perspective it took nearly 30 years for the first eight immaculate innings to be tossed that being said the inning I'm talking about today is from Justin Verlander who I will argue tossed the finest inning ever pitched in an otherwise nondescript Detroit Tigers lost to the Cleveland Indians in May of 2012 it doesn't fit the three pitches three outs criteria nor is it an immaculate inning it's 11 pitches in total two of which were balls but all of which were fueled by white-hot rage so how can I argue that Justin Verlander's inning was the most dominant watching the film vid alone might convince you once we dig further into the data will find that Berliners inning wasn't just impeccable it was impossible I promise you that I can prove it but you need to give me the time to explain some terminology otherwise things could get complicated if you want to just skip to the first pitch go to the time listed this is a triple digit fastball in the eighth inning this is a spin rate that melts faces this is a curve ball that breaks bones this is Justin Verlander's impossible inning [Music] [Applause] spin right spin right spin right spin rate spin right spin rate is baseball's new buzzword ever since the introduction of statcast in 2015 by looking at a pitcher's spin rate on his four seam fastball front office's have surmised that they can explain why some 95 mile-per-hour fastballs are just plain juicy while others are nyan hittable in fact this chart in front of you now shows that spin rate has a higher correlation to swing and miss stuff than straight velocity so what does a good spin rate look like the league average is about 2,300 rpm or rotations per minute this glorious metric can also be improved as baseball's mad scientist Trevor Bauer emphasis on mad has added an extra 100 rotations per minute to his fastball since 2016 as for Justin Verlander it should be no surprise that the introduction of statcast spin rate revealed that his is elite I think one of the joys of spin rate is how easily it explains why great pitchers simply are great pitchers Verlander's 2018 featured an average 2618 RPM spin rate on his four seamer which was first among starting pitchers now you see why Kate Upton loves him and while Verlander has seen spin rate increases since he joined Houston he was always elite to begin with in Detroit ok we're almost halfway through the brief history so I just want to reiterate if you stick with me I will show you someone pitching so well that it's actually impossible ok I just need a little more time ok so how can I know that Verlander spin rate was already great in Detroit remember Verlander is impossible inning was tossed in 2012 three years before statcast tracking began well before statcast there is pitch FX pitch FX measured velocity the same way that statcast does but didn't officially track spin rate however pitch FX did use a crude but effective formula to estimate the spin rate of individual pitches you see the spin that is put on four seam fast balls its backspin which causes the ball to fight against the downward forces of gravity this is where the term rising fastball comes from the ball doesn't actually rise but it does to send slower with this backspin than it would in a vacuum thus more spin is equivalent to more rise and when I'm say rise I'm doing finger quotes you can't see those but rise finger close anyways here's a graph of Verlander's vertical movement against a fourth inning Indians batter on that fateful day in May of 2012 you can see that he's getting about 10 inches of this so-called vertical movement on his four seamer labelled in the black whereas his curveball labeled and yellow drops about seven inches we have pitches that end up ten inches higher or seven inches lower than they should in a vacuum and they're coming from the same release point you can see how frustrating that could be for hitters even in 2012 pre statcast Verlander was doing this as well as anybody in baseball so by taking the vertical movement and pitch velocity into account pitch effects can spit out a pretty good spin rate estimation for us in Verlander's fourth inning we can see a fastball spin rate in the 2400 RPM range with an outlier towards 2100 this isn't statcast but pitch affects is spin rate estimate is crucial to contextualize what 2012 Verlander did we're effectively using 2018 analytics to look at something from 2012 in fact I'll be putting up the estimated spin rate for each Verlander pitch as it's thrown over the course of the video of course this chart is from the fourth inning Justin Verlander's impossible inning came later in the game yes it was the eighth and final inning of Justin Verlander start that was the most dominant inning ever thrown and now that we understand what will happen from a technical perspective I just want to sum up what Verlander's feeling from an emotional perspective he's pissed royally pissed he's so pissed that the commentators know it he's so pissed that the YouTube video of this inning is simply titled not happy JV Tigers are trailing two to one and Verlander is entering this inning knowing that it's his last meaning that he will get saddled with a no decision at best Jacob degrom faced similar situations multiple times in 2018 but 2012 Verlander will not be keeping his cool despite having thrown a hundred and six pitches already he's going to come out firing like no pitcher ever has before or since [Music] your first batter to the plate is shin-soo Choo a very productive hitter and 2018 all-star with the Rangers he would finish with an impressive 3.6 B war in 2012 but couldn't do anything to help his team win in this particular plate appearance boy who was the acting manager here today feels like this is the best opportunity for the Tigers to win this game so I'm gonna go spikey Verlander's first pitch is as expected a four seam fastball goes right down the middle at 96 miles per hour which is back up by both the radar gun and pitch it begs but two swings and misses why is that how about a cool 2746 rpm spin rate if we refer to our previous chart that puts this pitch squarely in the red which I will now refer to as whiff City now let's load pitch number two so taken over after Leyland was ejected swing Verlander rears back and launches another four seamer this time just a tad higher but still well in the strike zone two swings and misses again this one comes in at 97 miles per hour which is already significantly faster than Verlander's average fastball velocity which was 94.9 in 2012 did I mention that this is pitch number 108 for him on the day he's just getting loosened up Oh in that spin rate if he breaks 2800 rpm he'll be off the chart he's now on the outskirts of whiff city to 2977 rotations per minute I just checked the chart and well we're well into uncharted territory now only three pitchers all of them relievers managed to throw at least two forcing fast balls with a higher spin rate than this in all of 2018 one of them was Josh hater and even then none of them threw as hard as Verlander on this pitch which registered 99 on the gun and just over 100 on my pitch FX spreadsheet I don't even care that it's the ball the pitch is just absurd in fact dare I say impossible and I say this to reiterate there's no direct measurement that can tell us this fastball is actually a 3000 rpm aberration but the pitch absolutely behaves as one in terms of its velocity and rising action the hitter certainty won't know the difference speaking of hitter I've had enough of shin-soo Choo I think Verlander would agree brought a lot of energy to that spot Verlander sits down his first batsman with another heater this time back down to a 2600 rpm spin rate this places him squarely back in whiffed City and shoot does just that on this pitch right out of the zone now it's time for our next victim I mean hitter Jason Kipnis another good player he would deliver a stellar in 3.9 B Wars season in 2012 before making his first all-star game in 2013 and Verlander already has strike one on him he delivers this one in 98 once again and with an eerily similar spin rate in fact that 2618 represents his average spin rate in the year 2018 this will of course leave us firmly entrenched in whiffed city now we're on to pitch number six of the inning and number 112 of the afternoon yep that's the hundred mile per hour barrier being firmly broken pitch number three might have done it but pitch number six definitely did with pitch FX in the stadium radar gun both flashing triple digits at this point our beloved commentators have picked up on the fact that they are witnessing something special and that it's all being fueled by Verlander's rage Verlander not happy right not happy he's angry 100 miles an hour on that last fastball hey do you know how many starting pitchers have hit triple digits in the eighth inning or later since 2008 thanks to baseball savant I can tell you it's six pitchers starting with Luis Severino who did it once Gerrit Cole who did it twice Noah syndergaard and Nathan Eovaldi who have each done it thrice followed by James Paxton who is done in a whopping four times and then finally it's Justin Verlander who has done it whoa whoa Justin save some for the rest of us 101 we were just gushing over a hundred and he drops 101 on us like it's nothing hey do you want to know how many starting pitchers have thrown 101 miles per hour in the eighth inning or later since I don't know 2008 again only one its Justin Verlander and he's done it 16 times only Justin Verlander can do this Justin Verlander you are impossible and Jason Kipnis you are out this brings up our third and as you may have guessed final hitter of Justin Verlander's impossible inning now as dribbble Cabrera was an all-star in 2012 he who cares I want to see what Verlander does next BAM 100 miles per hour for the called strike it's the third time he has broken triple digits this inning his spin rate is well over 2,700 Cabrera doesn't stand a chance and doesn't even offer at the pitch I just want to see if he can get back up to 101 again twins are tuned in to this game about right now because they play tonight oh oh oh it's not what I expected at all but I'm still super into it after all that fastball fanfare Verlander throws both a figurative and literal curveball we don't have to look at the velocity or spin rate to know it was filthy but you can see from the strike zone plot just how well located it was the fast balls are in hittable as is but once you introduce this curveball into the mix Verlander ascends to another level in this at-bat it doesn't matter that he's facing good hitters it doesn't matter that all of them are left-handed and thus hold the platoon advantage he is set out to embarrass them they can't even foul these pitches off and now he's going to follow up this nasty curve with a life-affirming heater joy yourself in Minnesota Verlander the o2 1:02 I told you he's angry 102 102 I got tell you guys I've said about 2,000 words in this video and only now am I had a complete loss for them it's just beyond the pale for someone to throw a hundred and two miles per hour on their 116th pitch of an outing should be impossible and to have it somehow be forgotten or become a footnote is frustrating for me honestly how many of you were aware of this inning in this particular feat before watching this video let me know in the comments but I think I'm showing you something somewhat esoteric it's like I've seen a UFO in person and I'm desperately presenting someone the grainy footage in the hopes that they'll validate my sighting that's what watching Justin Verlander pitch in this eighth-inning makes me feel like it's as if my entire reality has been broken how can this be possible I'm convinced that there's only one other pitcher in baseball history who could have possibly matched this feat and its Nolan Ryan who we have no such data for but for Justin Verlander to do it and for it to be backed up by both pitch FX and the stadium radar gun is soul-crushing in a way like I said he's pissed he's giving it his all and it just won't matter the Detroit Tigers will lose this game and Verlander having surrendered two runs earlier will take the loss the 2012 Tigers fronted by eventual siyoung winners like Verlander Scherzer and Porcello with an offense led by Triple Crown winner Miguel Cabrera and Slugger Prince Fielder will battled their way to the World Series only to get swept by the San Francisco Giants this Tigers core never won a championship and we'll take Verlander moving to Houston after 13 years in Detroit to ultimately acquire a ring in a way the entire thing is a gross injustice the legacy of this inning lives on and I'm happy to be the one to finally immortalize it this series of three batters which occurred on May 24th 2012 in the eighth inning of a regular-season game against the Indians that few actually cared about is the finest inning ever and that was Justin Verlander's impossible in in wait wait wait wait sorry sorry sorry I actually I forgot to show you guys the last pitch wouldn't want to be Cabrera right now [Applause] [Music] [Applause] you [Music] you

Channel: Foolish Baseball

Views: 1,465,296

Rating: 4.9137769 out of 5

Keywords: justin verlander, verlander, best inning ever, best inning ever pitched, statcast, fastball spin rate, pitchf/x, justin verlander tigers, not happy jv, greatest inning ever, baseball bits, foolish baseball, justin verlander velocity, justin verlander spin rate, 102 mph fastball, statcast spin rate, baseball video essay, immaculate inning, high spin rate fastball, rising fastball, justin verlander four seam fastball, justin verlander's impossible inning

Id: hpIs__45t5I

Length: 15min 15sec (915 seconds)

Published: Thu Dec 20 2018

Reddit Comments

[u/GhostOfJuanDixon]

Still can't believe those tigers got swept. They looked so stacked

[u/DistinguishedTrout]

Hey all. I made this video. I just want to say that I hope you all enjoy it!

[u/hammerandnailz]

I remember watching that inning against the Indians live on TV and my jaw literally hanging open. Because it was a random game in the dog days it never got the coverage it deserved, but it was without a doubt the most outstanding display of pitching I have ever seen in my life. Past or present.

[u/jmb-412]

I could watch Verlander highlights all day and never get bored.

[u/[deleted]]

I miss him so much.

Favourite ever and always will be.

[u/see_mohn]

Aaaaaand subscribed.

[u/MightyTrustKrusher]

That was beautiful.

[u/eariion]

Those curveballs are fucking disgusting.

His fast balls are one thing, but standing in against one of those benders would just be fucking pointless.

I’m surprised there aren’t more video clips of one of those crossing the plate and then the batter kinda looking back at his own dugout like “well boys..I think that about does it”

[u/StealthyGooch]

I will be forever grateful for JV. No fucking way we come close to sniffing a ring without him.