Why the 2011 Draft Was MLB's Finest | Baseball Bits

this video is based on an article written by Dan Connolly for the athletic you can use my link at the athletic comm slash foolish baseball for a free 30-day trial as well as 50% off your annual subscription fee in 2019 Royals outfielder Bubba's Starling and cups pitcher Danny Holton made their major league debut eight years after being drafted it was an unceremonious stint for both as Starling put up rather pedestrian numbers over the course of 197 plate appearances and Holton pitched three and a third innings all in September but they made it and with these major league appearances the legend of the 2011 draft class suggested to be the best ever grew even more see Holton was taken second overall by the Mariners that year while Starling was taken fifth by the Royals and their elevation into the big leagues made it so the first 29 picks of the 2011 draft had made the majors a feat that hasn't been accomplished by any other draft class and may very well never happen again according to Sabre the Society for American Baseball Research 66.7% or two-thirds of first round draft Sinese end up appearing in the majors at all but what about the chances of the first 29 all making it now there's all sorts of factors worth forgoing here such as recent drafts having more success due to better scouting and higher picks big more likely to make it but using a little bit of 11th grade math I know those chances could be summarized as 0.667 to the 29th power meaning that the odds of the first 29 picks in any given draft all making it to the big leagues is drumroll please point zero zero zero eight percent so let's talk about the other pics real quick [Music] here's a chart of those 29 major leaguers sorted by their career wins Above Replacement according to Baseball Reference there are some current sub-replacement level guys but they're all still relevant Blake Swihart was part of Boston's 2018 World Series run Robert Stevenson has nasty stuff and great potential as a reliever for the Reds and Tyler Beede is the only guy on here who didn't sign in 2011 but was drafted 14th overall by the Giants and pitched a lot for them this past season at replacement level there's Jed Bradley and Chris Reed 11 career innings between the two of them still they made it Taylor Gary and Dustin a clout sorry I mean Danny Holton pitched in 2019 so that's nice so did Sean Gilmartin heck Matt Barnes was even one of Boston's better relievers this season and at the top you'll see Joe Ross who started a World Series game that's more than a lot of players can say [Music] Archy Bradley is a reliever who had a freaking triple in the playoffs enough said Joe Panik was a big part of the Giants 2014 championship and won a Gold Glove in 2016 Dylan Bundy had a seemingly promising career derailed by a 2013 Tommy John surgery but he's still one of Baltimore's better pitchers not that saying too much as the third overall pick Trevor Bauer was somehow the second UCLA right-handed pitcher selected in the draft that year he's also self-described as one of the most scientific pitchers in MLB for what it's worth Jose Fernandez was an incredible pitcher who did some incredibly dumb things and sadly paid the ultimate price he was a superstar from a young age and could have ended up at the top of this chart if he were still with us I don't have too much analysis here but these guys are all excellent franchise players who may still somewhat improve in the next couple of years Wong just won his first career Gold Glove while Bai is in gray were both 2019 all-stars speaking of 2019 all-stars these guys are the cream of the crop at least for the first 29 pics so now that we've given those 29 major leaguers a quick rundown let's do a real deep dive on a few of the biggest players this stacked draft class produced in terms of Wins Above Replacement for those first 29 picks Francisco Lindor tops the list for now it's easy to see why he made his debut at age 21 in 2015 and immediately established himself as a force to be reckoned with among shortstops in their first five seasons he ranked second in homeruns behind the great Ernie Banks and second in Wins Above Replacement behind the ever underrated are Kevon drafted eighth overall by the indians that year there's a lot of uncertainty regarding who would be available when Cleveland went on the clock Indian scouting director Brad Grant told the athletic he was hoping Bauer would miraculously dropped to eight in the draft Bauer of course went third overall to the Diamondbacks and once the Nationals settled on Anthony Rendon for the sixth pick it became apparent that Cleveland would be choosing between two great middle infield prospects in the end of course the Indians picked Lindor but don't feel too bad for the other great middle infielder as it was Hobbie Baez who ended up going to the Cubs one pick later as Connally Wright's Cubs scouting director Tim Wilkins was smitten with Baez from the start and would have even picked him headland door also fallen and while these two studs are two of the biggest names in Major League Baseball neither turned out to be the best player in the draft class because despite how stacked the early proceedings were the best player wasn't selected until the fifth round famously drafted as a second baseman current well at least for now Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts was selected in the fifth round that year and while the cream of the crop in the first round have put up between 25 and 30 Wins Above Replacement it's Mookie who is on another planet with a whopping 42 Boston developed the scrawny 2nd baseman into a legitimate power threat and one of the best defensive outfielders the modern game has seen it just goes to show that the draft is still an inexact science even in the best draft ever the best player was picked a hundred and seventy second overall in fact death is one of the strong suits for the 2011 draft sure those first rounders are special but rounds 2 through 10 featured the Pirates Star Slugger Josh Bell current Indian starter Mike Clevenger pirates prospect turned Tampa stud Tyler glass now 2019 MVP finalist Marcus Semien 2018 siyoung and MVP vote Gator Blake treinen and your favorite control freak Kyle Hendricks even the absolute tail end of the draft had solid MLB relievers like the string being slinger Carl Edwards Jr who factored into the Cubs 2016 World Series run as well as Mets bullpen a Seth Lugo otherwise known around the league as less Spinney curveball man wait no no that's just me who calls him that but let's go ahead and get back to that first round because it's pointed out by Connolly in the athletic the 2019 World Series was driven by star power from the 2011 draft let's talk about the Nats and the Astros [Music] hey it's Tony two bags that's probably what national scouting director Chris Klein said when Anthony Rendon was somehow available to be drafted sixth overall by Washington as Rendon was seen as a top two pick in the draft fast forward eight years later and the long underrated Rendon has in a stunning turn of events finally been recognized by the public as a superstar after his terrific 2019 and postseason success with the team that drafted him in the past three seasons brendham trails only Mike Trout Mookie Betts and Christian Yelich and FanGraphs war so it's safe to say he's in pretty elite company in the 2019 World Series he launched two key home runs in Game six in game 7 and was unbelievably clutch throughout the postseason in fact his late game played appearances and elimination games went as follows walk home run double double home run double home run and finally a flyout while Rin don't was plying his trade at Rice George Springer who was drafted five picks later was doing his thing at UConn in fact as Connelly writes for the athletic Springer's early junior year struggles actually delighted former Astro scag director Bobby heck who had been tracking Springer for years perhaps he wanted to see his draft stock fall a bit to ensure his availability when the Astros picked of course those struggles are a thing of the past and Springer has transformed into not just a great regular-season player but one of the greatest World Series hitters of all time among players with at least 50 plate appearances in the World Series Springer currently ranked second in on-base plus slugging all-time somehow beating out Lou Gehrig Babe Ruth and the man they call mr. October Springer was MVP of the 2017 World Series against the Dodgers and likely would have been in contention for MVP of the 2019 series had the Astros pulled it out in the end that leads us to Springer's teammate at the number one pick in the whole 2011 draft Gerrit Cole the Pirates deserve a lot of credit for recognizing Cole's talent as Danny Holton Anthony Rendon and Trevor Bauer were also in contention for the top pick in the draft that being said his time in Pittsburgh wasn't where he fulfilled his potential see organizationally speaking the Pirates of the mid 2010's stressed a pitch to contact approach with their pitchers to their credit the Pirates experienced quite a bit of success in this time breaking a 20-year stretch of losing seasons but when Cole was traded to Houston many speculated that he would become a superstar with the organization that was perhaps best known for its pitcher development and so Cole did just that he became a superstar instantly in the past two seasons he's third and FanGraphs war among pitchers trailing only the brutal NL East cobwebs are intagram and he also has the most strikeouts in that time frame a whopping 602 including 326 and 2019 when he broke Randy Johnson's record for single-season strikeout rate among qualified pitchers the reason for this freak swing and miss stuff may be found in Cole's spin rate on his forcing fastball which has increased unlike anything I have ever seen before it's deeply upsetting he has added more than a tick on his forcing fastball velocity as well since his last year in Pittsburgh of course coal was pretty much nails in the postseason and pitched well in the World Series despite his loss in Game one he may also very well become the second sy Young Award winner in his draft class after Blake Snell oh yeah Blake Snell was in this draft class to can't forget about Blake's now [Music] one thing that's beautiful about a draft class like this one is that its legacy is not static it's still changing rendering coal are free agents this offseason and will probably sign for in my estimation a combined 450 million dollars for IND own that could be back in Washington but coal seems like he's on his way out of town at the moment your 2011 draft all-star lineup would look something like this although as a branded Nimmo apologist myself I may want him going forward instead of Kevin Pilar this video started with a rundown of those 29 consecutive major leaguers but that too was the number that could change 30th overall pick Levi Michael finished his year with a 737 o-p-s and triple-a for the Giants so he could be knocking on the door if he finds the right club this offseason thirty first overall pick Mikie Mahtook already has big league experience and 32nd overall pick Jake Hager is in a similar situation to Levi Michaels only having last played in Milwaukee system if Michael and Hagar both make it even if it's just for a day that would make 32 consecutive big leaguers to start the 2011 draft and with that would come even more great Trevor stories to tell speaking of Trevor storytelling this episode of baseball bits was based on an article originally published in the athletic the athletic provides its readers with the best baseball coverage and storytelling available they employ a world-class team of writers that provide coverage on all your favorite organizations at the local level as well as at the league level on top of this the website and app are completely ad free so no more annoying pop-ups so if you want to read more great articles you can use my link at the athletic comm slash foolish baseball for 50% off your yearly subscription as well as a 30-day free trial once again thank you to the athletic for partnering up with me on this episode of baseball bits [Music] [Music] you

Channel: Foolish Baseball

Views: 413,208

Keywords: 2011 MLB Draft, mlb best draft, mlb best draft ever, 2019 world series, anthony rendon draft, gerrit cole draft, george springer draft, mookie betts draft, mookie betts 2nd base gerrit cole velocity, gerrit cole spin rate, spin rate, gerrit cole pirates, trevor bauer diamondbacks, francisco lindor, lindor draft, javy baez, baez draft, baseball bits, foolish baseball, baseball, mlb, Why the 2011 Draft Was MLB's Finest | Baseball Bits, mlb draft

Id: 4XA0_upGulo

Length: 13min 10sec (790 seconds)

Published: Thu Nov 14 2019

Reddit Comments

[u/Joementum2004]

I can't believe we got noted star Cory Spangenberg from that draft, what a steal

[u/king_zacarias]

Yea we didn’t have a pick till 47....

Explains a lot actually

[u/Noy_Telinu]

CJ Cron is the only Angels player worth anything in that draft... and his best success in in Minnesota...

[u/not_bilbo]

This guy has quickly become my favorite YouTube content creator. His Soto video is excellent.

[u/Ereyes18]

There mariners picked Danny Hultzen #2 overall. The next pick was Bauer

[u/cooljammer00]

Unless you draft the wrong son of a former player

[u/Ze3y0o]

‘Cole’s spin rate increased dramatically after joining Houston’ :(

[u/DingersGetMeOff]

Went to check who the Braves picked in this draft. Only notable guys were Ahmed, La Stella, and Means. So didn't work out great for us that year safe to say.

[u/internetosaurus]

The reason the 2011 draft was so good is that the CBA was changing the next year. In 2012 the current bonus pool method was introduced, making it so that going over that amount is incredibly punitive in both money and draft picks. Mookie Betts was signed for 5 times his "recommended" draft slot bonus (recommended in quotes to emphasize that it was literally just that, a team with a bunch of cash could just draft a player with a strong commitment to a school and offer them an unlimited amount of money to convince them otherwise). Boston had an incredibly successful draft that year because Theo Epstein convinced ownership to say "this is out last chance to maximize being a big market team with a bunch of money, fuck it, pay the guys we draft whatever they want," and I suspect other teams employed similar strategies.