The Most Important Hit in MLB History | Baseball Bits

[Music] this video ends with bill maheroski hitting a home run you've probably seen it before it's the only walk-off home run in game seven of the world series this exact scenario has been dreamt up by every aspiring ballplayer but only bill mazurovsky got to live it and it produced one of the most iconic images in 150 years of professional baseball so why am i telling you this why am i spoiling the ending because it wasn't actually the most important hit in mlb history in fact it wasn't even the most important hit in that game [Music] the main stat we'll be looking at today is when probability added the question wpa tries to answer is how much did a play help the team win this stat greatly depends on the game situation which is a concept best explained through real life examples let's say tyler glassnow and dj lemayhew face off in the bottom of the first no runners on base 0-0 ball game glass now gets the strikeout he's won the battle but it was not a pivotal moment in the game the odds of tampa winning increased by just 2 percent which decreases new york's odds of winning by you guessed it 2 percent and because baseball is at its core a series of 1v1 matchups between the batter and pitcher that when probability is applied to glass now and le mayhew now let's say that akil badu hits a 9th inning grand slam that has to be huge for win probability added right well not if he does it when his team is losing 15-2 before he hit that grand slam the twins were definitely gonna win after he hit that grand slam the twins were definitely still gonna win the slam scores four runs but does not change the win expectancy at all thus zero win probability is added or subtracted a pivotal play would be a walk-off like the one mazeroski hid in the 1960 world series but seeing as wpa assesses the win expectancy for any given situation not every walk-off is created equal for instance how about ryan braun versus the cubs in 2020 the game is tied but there are runners on the corners with no outs this is a situation that will typically result in a brewers walk-off and if not they'll just play extra innings so when braun hits the sac fly he wins the game but he only adds six percent to the win probability on the opposite end of the spectrum how about dansby swanson versus the nationals the game isn't tied the braves are losing and there's two outs with a runner on first situationally one would expect the nationals to win in this scenario so when swanson hits a walk-off home run wpa loves it the braves chances of winning go from 11 percent to 100 now let me drop a new one on you cwpa championship win probability added it's not the probability of winning the game or after rather the probability of play adds to winning the world series as you can imagine the top cwpa plays would have to take place in the playoffs themselves and the place capable of producing the most cwpa would occur in deciding world series games indeed the top four plays by cwpa came in a world series elimination game you'll probably recognize number three and number four tony womack's double off mariano rivera increased arizona's chances of winning the world series by 49.8 percent rajay davis's homer offer waldis chapman increased cleveland's chances of winning by 39 you'll have to go down to number six for maserowski's walk off homer which he achieved in a tie game but if there's anything we've learned from this exercise it's that the most pivotal hits take teams from a losing position to a winning position and that's exactly what the number one most important hit by championship win probability added did hal smith bottom of the 8th game 7 1960 world series the 1960 world series featured the new york yankees and pittsburgh pirates a unique matchup of the winningest and losingest teams of the previous decade the yankees were no stranger to the october classic under manager casey stengel they won nine pennants in seven world series in 11 years whereas the 1960 pirates celebrated their first pennant since 1927. historical success aside this was not a mismatch based on regular season record the 1960 yankees and pirates were clearly the two best teams in the land and given that this took place before the divisional era they went straight to the world series the yankees boasted a trio of hall of famers with mickey mantle yogi berra and whitey ford but their top player by war was actually the league mvp roger maris the pirates had a legend of their own in roberto clemente they also had and i'm not making these names up dick groat and don hoke who somehow finished 1-2 in mvp voting ahead of willie mays and ernie banks i guess the voters really just wanted to give it to the pennant winners back then pittsburgh's pitching staff also boasted some interesting names harvey haddocks once took a perfect game into the 13th inning tom chaney once struck out 21 orioles in a 16 inning affair and vinegar ben mizell was named vinegar bend mizelle it was a weird team but they were good every game in the series was either a yankees beat down or the pirates squeezing out a close win game 1 pirates win 6-4 game 2 yankees wins 16-3 game 3 yankees win 10-0 game 4 pirates win 3-2 game 5 pirates win 5 to 2 game 6 yankees win 12 to nothing now of course we know it ends with the pirates on top but it's worth pointing out that the yankees outscored the pirates 55-27 in this series they scored more than twice as many runs as their opponents and lost with all that in mind it's time for game seven the deciding game in the series one where a single swing could determine the outcome of the entire season and thus generate some serious championship win probability added [Music] the pirates opened up the scoring quickly with a two run homer from rocky nelson in the bottom of the first bill verdin followed that up with a two run single in the second the pirates were quickly leading four to nothing with an 88 win expectancy the yankees got a run back thanks to a bill scower and homer in the fifth but it wasn't until the sixth that they launched a devastating rally with a couple runners already on base mickey mantle hit an rbi single yogi berra followed it up with a three run homer suddenly the yankees were leading five to four bears blast had increased their win probability and thus their championship win probability by 34 percent making it the 10th most pivotal play in mlb history pittsburgh's desperation began to mount after their star catcher smokey burgess smoked a single to center field manager danny berta aggressively pinched ran for him lifting burgess from the game the offense was unable to capitalize don hook lined out to left field and bill mazurowski grounded out into a double play the yankees added two huge insurance runs in the eighth extending their lead to three they needed just six outs to clinch the series but the pirates came roaring back leading off the bottom of the eighth with three singles one of which painfully bounced off yankee's shortstop tony kubeck's face he had to be removed stengle made a substitution of his own bringing in reliever jim coats for bobby chance a bunt ground out and a shallow fly out led to a crucial at-bat from roberto clemente runners on second and third two outs pirates losing seven to five on a two-strike count clemente hit a soft dribbler to the right side and won the footrace to first bill verdin scored from third to make it a one run ball game it's time with the pirate star catcher smokey burgess out of the game they turn to their backup hal smith as smith walked up to the plate the yankees were still in a good spot with a 70 chance to win the game and thus the world series but sometimes the right man in the right place can make all the difference and hal smith [Applause] the pirates now led nine to seven with two outs smith had flipped the game and series on its head by hitting a home run with a championship win probability added of 63.6 percent many of you have just witnessed the most pivotal play in mlb history for the first time but the game was far from over the yankees now trailing by two were down to their last three outs they collected two singles off bob friend to begin the ninth harvey haddocks was brought in to deal with the most dangerous part of the yankees lineup maris mantel and bara maris popped out to the catcher one out after hal smith's unlikely home run the pirates could taste glory but the commerce comet had other plans mantle singled to right field scoring one and moving the tying run to third yogi berra grounded out to first where a defensive miscue and mickey mantle juke move prevented a double play and allowed the tying run to score miraculously the hall of fame duo saved the yankee season after being on the brink of elimination you know what happened in the bottom of the ninth bill mazarovski led off in a tie game and walked off the series for pittsburgh in doing so he took the pirates from a 63 percent win probability to a hundred percent making it the sixth most pivotal play by cwpa in mlb history but also the second most pivotal play of the game trailing the home run by hal smith in the eighth inning in a game featuring mickey mantle yogi berra and roberto clemente it was the no-name catcher hal smith who made the greatest impact of all in fact house smith wasn't even the most famous catcher named hal smith at the time the cardinals had a house smith of their own who was an all-star in 1959 as smith circled the bases even he was unsure of just how big a moment it was the reaction of clemente is much more in line with what cwpa tells us pure unadulterated joy yes the yankees came back but it was in vain it just set the stage for bill mazzeroski's walk-off mazarovski's heroics earned him a spot in cooper's town they also generated one of the game's most iconic images his home run had staying power smith never received anything near that level of recognition in a year that claimed to the lives of joe morgan alkaline tom seaver and bob gibson among others how smith's passing in january 2020 barely registered a blip his career stats don't stand out on a baseball reference page either but he achieved something that the other legends of the game couldn't in the eighth inning of the pivotal game seven he took the pirates from a losing position to a winning one his teammate dick grot called it the most forgotten home run in baseball history it doesn't have to be that way championship win probability added didn't exist in 1960 but certainly exists now and according to the leaderboard hal smith's homer is worth remembering the most forgotten home run no thanks how about this the most important hit in mlb history [Music] this video was brought to you by skillshare skillshare is an online learning community with thousands of inspiring classes for creators their classes will help you explore new skills deepen existing passions and get lost in creativity hey baseball fans want to learn how to design a sports team logo skillshare has it want to build your first stat database with sql skillshare can help you do that too as for me i'll be working on my productivity with fellow youtuber thomas frank i just learned that a habit has three parts a cue a routine and a reward skillshare is ad-free geared for all levels of expertise and always launching new classes and if you want to try it out for yourself the first 1000 people who sign up for skillshare with my link in the description will receive a free trial so check it out [Music] by the way they gave the world series mvp to bobby richardson of the yankees i know baseball writers am i right

Channel: Foolish Baseball

Views: 265,679

Keywords: 1960 world series, game 7, 1960 world series game 7, hal smith, bill mazeroski, hal smith home run, hal smith pirates, bill mazeroski walkoff, bill mazeroski walk off, 1960 pirates, 1960 yankees, pirates, yankees, pittsburgh pirates, new york yankees, yogi berra, mickey mantle, roberto clemente, game 7 walkoff, game 7 walkoff home run, walkoff, walk off, most important hit, most important hit mlb history, baseball, mlb, foolish baseball, baseball bits, clutch baseball

Id: GyhSIluwb_g

Length: 14min 10sec (850 seconds)

Published: Sat May 29 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/Wobbuffet64]

Not going to lie, after Thursday’s error I really needed a Pick-Me-Up. Great video.

[u/thiccboiwaluigi]

Video is great except for one glaring flaw...

Bailey showed Seaver in a reds jersey which seems almost sacrilege

[u/thecursedlexus]

Game 7 of the 1960 WS was a rollercoaster ride, holy shit

[u/blargh257]

i made a spreadsheet a while back of the biggest cwpa plays every season. it doesn't have 2020 on it and the calculation method has changed, i think, but here it is. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bakTbhFsGTXEoKEjOYcN1m5f9XwKeL5WC2l5wcgNvBQ/edit?usp=sharing

[u/godly_mercs]

I love Foolish

All my homies love Foolish

[u/VeryStableJeanius]

Is 1960 World Series game 7 the best playoff game of all time? It’s kind of funny looking back at games like these and realizing how little of the game’s history you’ve witnessed. Sure, 2011 game 6 was fucking wild, but it doesn’t have 3 of the top 10 CWPA hits ever, damn.

[u/The_Big_Untalented]

Reminds me of how the Tony Womack double got overshadowed by the Luis Gonzalez walk-off even though it was by far the more important hit. The Pirates might have or might not have won the game without Mazeroski’s home run. They don’t win the game and the series without the Smith HR.

[u/Dirty_Windbreaker2]

Hal Smith right?

[u/Ignimbrite]

If this isn’t about Santiago Casilla’s walk I’m not watching it

EDIT: forgot that a walk isn’t the same thing as a hit. Ignore me