What Does Claudia Sheinbaum's Victory Mean For US-Mexico Relationship Amid Immigration Concerns

are there lessons that the United States should be taking from her Victory when it comes to electing women h i mean I think of course uh you know it would be ideal if our country were moving quicker in that direction uh and um you know certainly now if we do catch up and I hope we do um it'll be after this long list of countries that I just mentioned uh in the Americas this long list of of democracies now just this afternoon President Biden indicated that he intends to sign an executive order that will limit a Asylum Seekers at the US Mexico border I don't know has Shin bomb commented on this and and perhaps more broadly what does her election mean for us Mexico relations no not that I've seen um you know she's just the the election is here is just wrapping up um and uh so really the focus has been domestic look I think migration in Mexico there's there's two things to say about this issue one is that um Mexico is often enlisted to do the enforcement uh that the US doesn't want to do or can't do or simply needs Mexico's cooperation to do um so the Mexican you know border officials and immigration authorities are extremely involved uh in detaining immigrants that are headed down towards the US uh to detaining irregular migrants uh to to to deporting them further south and that's become you know a Hallmark of governments here going back years but Lopez orador has recently really stepped things up since January the enforcement against irregular migrants traveling through Mexico has increased that's why we've seen fewer migrants showing up at the US Mexico border there's actually been quite a significant drop um and uh you know I think it it'll depend if Shane bomb considers excuse me can continue some of those strong enforcement policies whether that Trend will continue now that said the second point I would mention is that Mexico is increasingly a destination country for migrants both migrants uh who want to make it to the US and end up uh having no means to go further um building lives here uh and those who seek Asylum here uh from Central America countries and from further south so Mexico is now becoming an important host country to migrants uh that is creating some frictions some challenges I think it's also an opportunity for the country this is an aging country that needs uh more young workers um and you know I there's certain advantages to the fact that more and more people are seeing opportunity here in Mexico Shan bomb I think will try to work with whoever is elected the next US president whatever his uh migration policy might be but I do think that with a second Trump term there could be definite tensions I know Shane bomb's team uh would not look kindly for on the re-imposition of a policy called remain in Mexico which had Asylum Seekers essentially forced to wait um on the Mexico side of the Border look on the in northern Mexico that creates all types of really Troublesome uh disturbing Dynamics even um there's large scale migrant kidnapping by organized crime groups um obviously this put stress on local communities uh so Mexico views that as a bit of a vulnerability and I think that um the more extreme the next president is on migration and um on really trying to lock down the US border regardless of the costs the more friction that could create with uh with the Shan B government so it sounds like the November elections in the US could have a real impact on her term or at least four years of her term if it's Biden it's kind of the status quo but if it's Trump it's a return to extremist policies that make her job more difficult yeah and you know it's look it's worth noting here that amlo interestingly enough despite considering himself a leftist had a very friendly relationship with Donald Trump and sometimes you know continues to suggest that he has a friendly relationship Shane B I think there will be more friction again because she comes from the student movement this human rights Focus left uh because she is herself a scientist right I think that there are a number of personal factors there that can make their relationship quite tough her team is still being careful to say we'll work with anybody and frankly that's the way it has to be the US and Mexico are each other's largest trading partners we share a very long land border of force and we're just deeply integrated as countries um so of course that cooperation needs to be there regardless of who's in office but again I do think that um that it may be rougher down the road between Shane Bob and let's say a second Trump term than it was between her pressor Amo and Donald Trump his last time around what's the number one thing you expect to see from her in her first term I think that again I I expect to see her uh pledging to continue loor's most popular policies those were again uh increasing the minimum wage there's another increase that plan for next year uh those were those include um cash transfers to the youth uh of Mexico and to older adults Universal Cash Cash transfers um but I think that she's also going to have to figure out how to finance all this now Lor was very careful with financing with bouncing the budget his first year is in office um however his last year he started to spend big many people believe with the idea of turning out the vote and which seems to uh to have worked pretty effectively for him um but now Shane bomb is left with a pretty tricky fiscal situation the highest debt to GDP ratio in Mexico for several years and I think decades um so she's going to probably have to make some Cuts somewhere she may have to pass a tax reform which will be politically difficult so it'll be again that balance between sustaining what made omop popular in terms of economic and social policy but also figuring out how to make it more sustainable for the long run

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Length: 5min 23sec (323 seconds)

Published: Thu Jun 06 2024