All right. My next guest says pay no attention to the new poll I'm about to reference, but it does show Donald Trump with a steady lead in the head to head rematch against President Biden, putting Trump at 49%, Biden at 43. But my next guest goes as far as to say that you can can cosign that poll and even the one showing Trump losing and just consigned to the flames. He insists Biden is still the man to beat in 2024. Just to tell you who I'm talking about is Professor Allan LICHTMAN, who correctly predicted nine of the last ten elections and the one he got wrong, 2000, he argues he actually got right and Al Gore beat George W Bush in the popular vote. So if not the polls, what's he using as his barometer? Well, LICHTMAN says we should follow his 13 keys to the White House. Now, they're all listed here for you, and they include things like incumbency and third party candidates, the state of the economy and, of course, social unrest and have six or more go against the party in the White House. Its candidate will lose fewer than six. Its candidate will win. So where do things stand right now? Let's bring in Allan LICHTMAN to talk all about it. Thank you so much for being here. Listen, you have not made your official prediction yet. I see the keys. But why do you think that Biden is in the driver's seat now when all these polls seem to say he should be worried? Remember, all the polls told us that Hillary Clinton would win in 2016. I predicted Trump would win in 1988. As late as May and June, George H.W. Bush was trailing his opponent like the caucus, by 18 percentage points. He went on to win handily. Polls are snapshots. They are abused as predictors. The keys are different because they tap into the structure of how elections really work, which is that they are votes up or down on the strength and performance of the White House party. Now, why does Biden have an advantage? You know, we hear all this confirmation. There should have been a younger candidate. Look at this. Biden wins the incumbency key, which you saw in your chart. He wins the contest key because he's not seriously opposed to the nomination. That means six more of my keys would have to fall to predictors to see Right now, he only loses to party mandate based on House elections and 2022 and incumbent charisma because he's no Franklin Roosevelt so former keys would have to fall. And there are four shaky keys that I haven't called yet and this is what you viewers should keep your eye on to get the pundits to get the polls. Third party. Will RFK jr emerge as we get closer as a truly significant third party candidate? Social unrest which we now see emerging at campuses, will that be sustained? We don't know. And of course, foreign failure and success, which depend upon what's going to happen in the Middle East and in Ukraine, all four would have to go against Biden to predict to succeed. That's possible, but not highly likely. So what about the timeline for all this happens? Obviously, as you mentioned, some aspects of it. It's a up and down depending on the day and the length of these perhaps shakiness of the keys might not endure, but they could go longer. Does there is there a particular cutoff and when these keys have to be in hand? There's no exact cutoff. Sometimes the keys fall into place very early. I predicted the hard to call the 2012 election in 2010, but right now, because things are so fluid, I can't make a final prediction. But I will tell you when you can have me on again, I expect to make my final call in early August like I did in 2020. Oh, come on, give me a hint right now. Tell me. Tell me everything. Just you and me, Alan, don't you have a whole bunch of viewers also listening? Well, if you're going to be technical about it. Yes, that's me. I will tell you, as I said, reiterate, you know, if it wasn't Biden running, Democrats would have lost the incumbency key in the contest. He won't be in a terrible position. But with Biden winning those two days and only being down four on the being down to the four shaky keys that I pointed out, all would have to fall against him. So unlike the polls and the pundits, I've told your viewers exactly what they should look for over the next several months. That's as far as I can go right now. All right. Well, I appreciate that. Just next time, we'll whisper. Thank you. Be great. This was just this You and I forget all the many viewers that are watching right now like Morsi, it's obviously the true inside scoop, but it's no different from what I've told them. They're all good. Well, I will buy the lunch, but you only get water. Thanks, Allan LICHTMAN, Nice to see you. Thanks so much. Anytime. It's always something I.
