What You Need To Know About Claudia Sheinbaum's Victory In Mexico's Presidential Election

[Music] hi everyone I'm Maggie McGrath editor of Forbes women and we are here to talk about a history-making election in Mexico on Sunday Claudia Shin bomb won the Mexican presidential election and became the first woman in her country to become president she is also the first Jewish person to hold the role here to talk more about her Victory and what it means for Mexico is Will Freeman he's a fellow for Latin American studies at the Council on Foreign Relations and he is in Mexico City right now will thank you so much for joining us thanks for having me okay so you're speaking live from Mexico City you were there for the elections last night tell us what are you seeing on the ground and what is the mood of the electorate right now you know on the one hand this was a landslide that most people saw coming if you looked at the polls Claudia Shane bomb was holding a between 10 and 20 25 point lead above her nearest rival four weeks so this has been a campaign without a lot of suspense uh most people thought they knew where it was going um on the other hand I would say that uh there was still enthusiasm I went around several different neighborhoods of Mexico City yesterday talking to voters um and you know I think overall uh their responses matched up pretty much with what we saw in the election the fact that um 60% of Voters supported uh uh Claudia Shan bomb to the next candidates 30% uh so it really it really was a landslide for the ruling part before we get into the nitty-gritty of Mexican politics can you just give us a very brief overview of the structure of the Mexican Government for those who might not be familiar with it and is it structured similarly to the American government you know somewhat similarly uh it's also a presidential system uh in Mexico's case until now uh with multiple political parties not just two um so what you have here is a pres a strong presidency uh the president can hold office for six years uh and cannot be uh reelected after that uh that's a very strong Norm here in Mexico um so Claudia Shain bom will have six years ahead of her and that's it um now in addition to the president there's a senate uh a congress um and also a supreme court which for now is selected through judicial process uh independently but which Claudia Shane bomb and her party have suggested should be actually selected through popular vote so that is one proposal we may see Su uh put soon to Congress is whether or not to reform the Constitution to elect Supreme Court judges and actually also elect the people who administer the entire Judiciary that change could make the system look quite unlike that of the United States and most other democracies a popular vote for the Judiciary that blows my American mind but while we're on policy will can you tell us what were the other policies that Shane bomb ran on and and what was her strategy broadly going into this election look her biggest message was that uh she is here to continue the policies of the president who's held power for the last six years uh a man named andrees Manuel Lopez oror called amlo uh Amo is a nationalist populist uh he started governing uh you know began began his political career as a governor in a very a poor state of southern Mexico uh you know ran every political campaign um against the political Elites and and what he perceived as kind of a wealthy few controlling the country uh and eventually he won in 2018 also in a landslide he became quite popular before and then as he helped the presidency by hiking the minimum wage by increasing social transfers and cash transfers to the poor but also very controversial he empowered the military um he was very harsh on Defenders of the environment um so he combined views that we sometimes think of as rightwing and left wing now Shane bom has basically said that she's going to continue this policy she's been by Andre Lopez or's side for the past 25 years 24 years excuse me one of his closest political allies however Shane B herself has a very different profile which make people think that maybe she has different ideas about where the country should go she's a climate scientist she comes from uh the student movement in Mexico which is much more let's say traditional kind of leftist in the sense of caring deeply about human rights um the considering themselves progressives somewhat closer to the mold of of those in the US um so we'll see Shane B may make I think important changes on energy policy um on fiscal policy uh potentially on the environment um but I think no matter what she does though she will be trying to uh to sustain this Legacy and appeal to that same base I have spoken to one or two members of the Forbes Global audience someone who lives in Mexico and when you talk about that Legacy this person said to me that Mexican citizens that she's around are feeling a great deal of uncertainty and are very worried I think in part because of the large majority that Shin bomb's party holds right now but what have you been hearing are are people concerned and do these concerns resonate with you well you know it's a divided country um but I think what you do see in the election results is that there's a strong majority that likes the direction that Lopez oor has Tak in the country you know for good or for real um what is disconcerting I think to the minority of opposition supporters or of Lopez oor and Shane bomb critics is that uh the political party of Lopez oor and Shane bomb has grown so quickly that they argue that it's not leaving space for many other uh checks and balances for for other political parties that might balance things out um I think it's going to be a really tough road ahead for critics of this government this party uh because unfortunately their political parties lost a lot of credibility they're almost going to start to have to build from the bottom up uh I think connecting at the Grassroots with those who've been disadvantaged by Lopez overdo policies uh and it'll probably take a really long time um so you know the critics I think they have some they have some real concerns they have some value concerns but we have to recognize after this election uh they are firmly in the minority indeed the numbers are strongly in Shane bomb's favor now we talked about the historic nature of the fact that she is a woman but she is also the first Jewish person to be elected president of Mexico this is a country that is according to the most recent statistics on the matter 78% Roman Catholic will do you know is she the first Jewish president of a majority Catholic country you know I think that she might be uh you also have the case of Hal m in Argentina who's converted to Judaism recently um but uh but to as far as I'm aware in terms of having you know a deep family history in that tradition Shane bomb would be the first in Latin America now um it is I think important to note that she uh she's considers herself secular um you know her family were refugees from Eastern Europe uh both for their religious identity and their their political views uh and she grew up in a secular household so on the campaign Trail she emphasized uh shared values among Mexicans including that Catholic Heritage uh so it hasn't been I would say a major talking point or theme in the campaign here except for a few very ugly attacks you saw um you know alleging that she was not Mexican enough uh by some of her by some of her critics so is there significance for the Jewish people of Mexico or even Beyond in her election do you think you know I'm sure I'm sure there is I think that it shows that in Latin America RIT large we're seeing an increasingly diverse people uh pool of people holding office uh keep in mind that um it's it's extremely significant that Mexico just elected its first woman president but this is following in the path of Brazil of Chile of Argentina of Costa Rica uh this is a a world region that leads for instance the US and parts of Europe by quite a bit when it comes to women's representation in politics and um you know also you're seeing increasingly indigenous people and Indigenous political parties uh elected um you know a number of different groups that weren't traditionally uh didn't traditionally tend to hold power uh have uh you know tended to see their representation expand uh because of democracy so I think that that's one thing which we can point to as a real advance and as as honestly a strong point for Latin America even as we're all aware of the many other challenges this region faces from slow economic growth to organized criminal violence are there lessons that the United States should be taking from her Victory when it comes to electing women h i mean I think of course uh you know it would be ideal if our country were moving quicker in that direction uh and um you know certainly now if we do catch up and I hope we do um it'll be after this long list of countries that I just mentioned uh in the Americas this long list of of democracies now just this afternoon President Biden indicated that he intends to sign an executive order that will limit Asylum Seekers at the US Mexico border I don't know has Shin bomb commented on this and and perhaps more broadly what does her election mean for us Mexico relation no not that I've seen um you know she's just the the election here is just wrapping up um and uh so really the focus has been domestic look I think migration in Mexico there's there's two things to say about this issue one is that um Mexico is often enlisted to do the enforcement uh that the US doesn't want to do or can't do uh or simply needs Mexico's cooperation to do um so the Mexican you know border officials and immigration authorities are extremely involved uh in detaining immigrants that are headed down towards the US uh to detaining irregular migrants uh to to to deporting them further south and that's become you know a Hallmark of governments here going back years but Lopez orador has recently really stepped things up since January the enforcement against irregular migrants traveling through Mexico has increased that's why we've seen fewer uh migrants showing up at the US Mexico border there's actually been quite a significant drop um and uh you know I think it it'll depend if Shane bomb considers uh excuse me can continue some of those strong enforcement policies whether that Trend will continue now that said uh the second point I would mention is that Mexico is increasingly a destination country for migrants both migrants uh who want to make it to the US and end up uh having no means to go further um building Lots here uh and those who seek Asylum here uh from Central America in countries and from further south so Mexico is now becoming an important host country to migrants uh that is creating some frictions some challenges I think it's also an opportunity for the country this is an aging country that needs more young workers um and uh you know I there's certain advantages to the fact that more and more people are seeing opportunity here in Mexico Shan bomb I think will try to work with whoever is elect to the next US president whatever his uh migration policy might be but I do think that with a second Trump term there could be definite tensions I know Shane bomb's team uh would not look kindly for instance on the re-imposition of a policy called remain in Mexico which had Asylum Seekers essentially forced to wait um on the Mexico side of the Border look on the in northern Mexico that creates all types of really Troublesome uh disturbing Dynamics even um there's large scale migrant kidnapping by organized crime groups um obviously this put stress on local communities uh so Mexico views that as a bit of a vulnerability and I think that um the more extreme the next president is on migration and um on really trying to lock down the US border regardless of the costs the more friction that could create with uh with the Shan B problem so it sounds like the November elections in the US could have a real impact on her term or at least four years of her term if it's Biden it's kind of the status quo but if it's Trump it's a return to extremist policies that make her job more difficult yeah and you know it's look it's worth noting here that Amo interestingly enough despite considering himself a leftist had a very friendly relationship with Donald Trump and sometimes you know continues to suggest that he has a friendly relationship Shane I think there will be more friction again because she comes from the student movement this human rights focused left uh because she is herself a scientist right I think that there are a number of personal factors there that can make their relationship quite tough her team is still being careful to say we'll work with anybody and frankly that's the way it has to be the US and Mexico are each other's largest trading partners we share a very long land border of course and we're just deeply integrated as countries um so of course that cooperation needs to be there regardless of who's in office but again I do think that um that it may be rougher down the road between Shane Bob and let's say a second Trump term than it was between her predecessor Amo and Donald Trump his last time around what's the number one thing you expect to see from her in her first term I think that again I I expect to see her uh pledging to continue loor's most popular policies those were again uh increasing the minimum wage there's another increase plan for next year uh those were those include um cash transfers to the youth uh of Mexico and to older adults Universal Cash Cash transfers um but I think that she's also going to have to figure out how to finance all this now Lo over was very careful with u financing with balancing the budget his first year is in office um however his last year he started to spend big many people believe with the idea of turning out the vote and which seems to uh to have worked pretty effectively for him um but now Shane bom is left with a pretty tricky fiscal situation uh the highest debt to GDP ratio in Mexico for several years and I think decades um so she's going to probably have to make some Cuts somewhere she may have to pass a taxx reform which will be politically difficult so it'll be again that balance between sustaining what made omo popular in terms of Economic and socialy but also figuring out how to make it more sustainable for the long run excellent well Will Freeman thank you so much for joining us we so appreciate your Insight

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Length: 13min 56sec (836 seconds)

Published: Tue Jun 04 2024