>> CAMILLA MONTOYO GALVEZ IN EL PASO, TEXAS. THANK YOU. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MEXICO'S 200 YEAR HISTORY, A WOMAN HAS BEEN ELECTED AS PRESIDENT. CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM, A CLIMATE SCIENTIST AND FORMER MEXICO CITY MAYOR IS PROJECTED WINNER AFTER SUNDAY'S ELECTION, SHE WILL ALSO BE MEXICO'S FIRST JEWISH PRESIDENT, THE 61-YEAR- OLD BE THE OPPOSITION BY ROUGHLY 30 POINTS, SHE WAS FAVORED, SHE WAS THE FAVORED CANDIDATE THAT WILL REPLACE THE CURRENT PRESIDENT. RYAN BURNED JOINS ME NOW, THE DIRECTOR OF THE AMERICAS PROGRAM AT THE CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH ME, MEXICO IS THE U.S. LARGEST TRADING PARTNER, MIGRANT FLOWS COME THROUGH MEXICO AND IT'S ALSO THE PRIMARY ROUTE FOR MAJOR NARCOTICS, HOW DO YOU EXPECT THE NEW PRESIDENT WILL MANAGE THE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE U.S. GIVEN THOSE THREE IMPORTANT AREAS? >> THANKS FOR HAVING ME ON, JOHN, CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM PROMISE TO CONTINUE THE TRANSFORMATION POLICIES, THERE'S A CERTAIN ELEMENT OF POLICY THAT WILL NOT CHANGE IN MEXICO BECAUSE SHE EXPLICITLY CAMPAIGNED ON CONTINUITY, HOWEVER, IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND SOMEONE WHO IS MORE -- FRACTIOUS WITH THE UNITED STATES, I DO ANTICIPATE THE PERSONALITY DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM WILL MEAN THAT PERHAPS THEY ARE SLIGHTLY FEWER FRICTIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO ON SOME OF THESE INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT ISSUES LIKE MIGRATION AND SECURITY COOPERATION. >> AS YOU MENTIONED, SHE WAS PICKED BY HER PREDECESSOR WHO WAS POPULAR DURING HIS REIGN, YOU AND YOUR COLLEAGUES SAY HE OVERSAW THE BLOODIEST PRESIDENTIAL TERM IN MEXICAN HISTORY, EXPLAIN WHAT YOU MEAN. >> THOSE ARE FACTS ON THE SECURITY FRONT, JOHN. BY ABOUT YEAR FIVE OF A SIX- YEAR TERM, THERE WERE MORE HOMICIDES IN TERMS OF NUMBERS THEN THE ENTIRE SIX-YEAR TERM OF ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OVER DOORS PREDECESSOR. THOSE WERE NUMBERS FROM HIS OWN GOVERNMENT, THE SECURITY POLICY THAT HE PURSUED UNDER HIS SIX YEARS WAS AN UNWISE ONE, IT WAS A CAMPAIGN SLOGAN FROM THE 2018 CAMPAIGN, HUGS, NOT BULLETS FOCUSING ON THE ROOT CAUSES AND GOING AFTER CARTELS IN THE TERRITORY CONTROL THEY POSSESS. IT HAD UNFORTUNATE CONSEQUENCES FOR MEXICO IN THE FORM OF THE MOST HOMICIDAL SIX YEARS WE HAVE SEEN IN THE MEXICAN PRESIDENT'S HISTORY. >> YOU WRITTEN ABOUT DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING. THAT IS SLOWLY HAPPENING IN TEXICO, GIVE ME AN EXAMPLE AND ALSO, HOW MUCH OF AN ISSUE IS THAT FOR THE COUNTRY AND FOR U.S. RELATIONS WITH MEXICO? >> BACKSLIDING IN MEXICO, U.S. SOUTHERN NEIGHBOR AS YOU MENTIONED IN YOUR INTRO, THE MOST IMPORTANT TRADING PARTNER WE HAVE IS A FUNDAMENTAL INTEREST OF OURS, WE NEED A ROBUST DEMOCRACY IN MEXICO FOR THEM TO PLAY THE STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP THEY WANT TO PLAY, IT'S IMPORTANT TO SAY THAT AT THE OUTSET, YOU'RE RIGHT, WE PUT OUT A RECENT PAPER WHICH SHOWED ON 16 DIFFERENT MEASUREMENTS, HE'S BACKSLID ON ABOUT 14 OF THEM, THINGS LIKE THE INDEPENDENCE OF REGULATORY INSTITUTIONS, JUDICIAL INDEPENDENCE, STEPPING IN IN AREAS WHERE NORMALLY, THE PRESIDENT DOES NOT STEP IN. FOR EXAMPLE, AFTER HE EXCITED TO DOCS A NEW YORK TIMES REPORTER, AND GIVE THAT INFORMATION AWAY IN A COUNTRY WHERE IT'S VIOLENT DEADLY TO BE A JOURNALIST, HE SAID THE LAW DOES NOT APPLY TO THE PRESIDENT, THE MORAL AND POLITICAL AUTHORITY OF THE PRESIDENT IS ABOVE THE LAW, THERE HAVE BEEN A NUMBER OF TROUBLING IT IS -- INSTANCES IN MEXICO AND WE HOPE THE NEXT PRESIDENT TAKES A DIFFERENT PATH WHEN IT COMES TO THE ROBUSTNESS OF INSTITUTIONS AND DEMOCRACY CONCERNS. >> THE NICKNAME, ONE LAST QUESTION ABOUT THE NEW PRESIDENT , THE CLIMATE SCIENTIST AND MEXICO BENEFITS OBVIOUSLY FROM OIL PRODUCTION. ANY INDICATION THAT HER BACKGROUND WILL AFFECT THE ENERGY SECRETARY -- SECTOR IN A WAY DIFFERENT FROM HER PREDECESSOR OR THAT MAYBE NOTABLE? >> THIS HAS BEEN ONE OF THE MOST INTERESTING AREAS OF SPECULATION, BECAUSE SHE CAMPAIGN AGAIN EXPLICITLY ON CONTINUATION OF SOME OF THE SO- CALLED FOURTH TRANSFORMATION POLICIES, CENTRAL TO THOSE POLICIES ARE THE UPHOLDING OF THE PRIME POSITION OF NX, BIG STAINED OWNED PRINTER -- ENTERPRISES IN THE OIL SECTOR AND ENERGY PROVISION, WE WILL NOT SEE TOO MUCH OF A CHANGE, WHERE SHE HAS SOME SLIPS ARE SHOWN SOME DISTINCTION IS AN INTEREST IN INVESTING MORE IN GREEN ENERGY AT THE SAME TIME AS SHE'S UPHOLDING SOME OF THE STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES. WE MIGHT SEE MORE OF BOTH, WE WILL NOT SEE MEXICO WALKING AWAY FROM ITS FUNDAMENTAL SUPPORT OF THE
