Mexico's New FAR-Left President Likely To Keep Cozy Relation W/ Communist Cuba, Venezuela: Analysis

[Music] for the first time in the country's 200y year history Mexico has elected a female president Claudia Shin Bal is Mexico's projected presidential winner and will succeed president Andre Manuel Lopez orador Shin Bal is a climate scientist and former Mexico City mayor also the first person from a Jewish background to lead the overwhelmingly Catholic country the new Mexican president will play a vital role in the country's relationship with the US in including progress toward limiting migrant Crossings and crossborder Drug trade per government statistics US border patrol encountered 250,000 migrants Crossing into the US from Mexico in December 2023 Mexico also became the US's top trading partner in the year 2023 surpassing China and Canada per CNN to break all of this down we have Rafael Bernal a staff writer at the hill welcome back to the program hey always a pleasure to be here yes it's great to have your expertise with us so tell us more about this figure who is now going to be the president of Mexico and what her placement is in the political world relative to the in in to the previous administration well the most interesting thing about Claudia shamal is we know who she's been politically she's been a mentee of Lopez obrador we don't know who she will be as president there are there are many many questions she's there there's some contradiction in her in her background she is a a climate scientist she's a big environmentalist uh her biggest infrastructure policy was a continuation of Lopez obor's own infrastructure policy in Mexico City which was building more highways um and and she's leaned into this uh so there there are real doubts um she's she's as as a character she has a she had a very pretty much communist upbringing with a close relations with with Cuba it said that she spent her Summers as a kid going to communist Cuba at the time which at the time in Mexico was was was not was not well perceived by a majority of people but there was a subset of uh you know communist sympathizers and it was at the time it became it became legal after a while to be a communist in Mexico um so it's not the same it's not the same feeling as as it as it would have been here in the United States I think that's important to say um she's she led this giant City uh in that's had this cultural Resurgence it's become sort of a a world capital and even with those very left leaning principles there there's been sort of a gentrification of downtown Mexico City with its pros and cons so what the the big question remains is she obviously ran on content uity because she ran on on the party ticket of a very popular incumbent it would have been political suicide not to run on continuity but the question is out there will the continuity include the good and the bad or you know just picking one or the other from from Lopez obor's policies yeah I mean I saw a progressive Greek F former Greek Finance Minister jannis verus uh celebrating the win he tweeted congratulations to friend and fellow traveler Claudia Shin bomb winning the presidency of Mexico is not just a confirmation of Andreas Manuel's policies in favor of the poor but a giant leap for radical feminism and ecology a rare glimmer of hope and O Bleak ER era and it's worth noting that she didn't just kind of squeak one out the way we're used to these days in American elections but one with uh basically 59% of the vote uh to what do you attribute her Victory especially if there are kind of familiar sentiments familiar as what we kind of expect in our familiar with in America that about kind of um Red Scare and criticism of uh left politics and the vilification of of Communism and things like that this kind of landslide is actually very familiar to any Mexican probably over the age of 40 certainly over the age of 50 it's a uh what what the Mexicans call a an election of State meaning the Mexican state it was there was a lot of intervention by Lopez obor at times potentially uh illegal uh obviously he was not he wasn't uh he wasn't judicially reprimanded for for you know commenting on the election while there are very uh strict laws on on on what a sitting president can say um it's it's a it's a party he's created a party that in many ways reflects the hegemonic party that led Mexico for 70 years in the 20th century and that very reluctantly let go of power in a very democratic election so it it did it sort of ended well in the year 2000 but since the year 2000 uh that Mexican democracy has has just has been losing steam um it's uh it's it's an it's an election where the official party um what they call in Mexico operated the election which is sort of a u it's it's sort of a combination of get out the vote and uh and voter coercion that that's very unique to uh to Mexican politics and they called it they said this is going to be a two to one margin and and yes a lot of polls did reflect that but polling in Mexico is widely inaccurate um and you know what the what the party said the polls that the that the party commissioned and the end result are all the same uh that is but that does not take away and and this is important because there's a lot of Suspicion there's a lot of processes that remind us of the pr the hegemonic P of the 20th century but the social programs put in by Morena Lopez obor's party are enormously popular and they have made a dent in in Mexico's property cycle just by through uh through Direct Cash transfers so there's a little bit bit of this and a little bit of that but it's not it's not like it's not a wild Triumph of absolute democracy zero corruption everything's going to be fine from now on there are definitely major concerns and and many major concerns in the bilateral relationship not just on migration but on on sort of bubbling uh trade disputes between the United States of Mexico there's also some question and some interest in whether or not she is going to sort of be a continuation of amlo's sympathetic posture toward uh uh Gaza uh the Palestinians in the wake of The Siege on Gaza uh previously um obor uh he declined to call it a genocide but then did say that Mexico wanted to join South Africa's petition at the icj and people have been looking into um The Shane Bon's past and found that back in 2009 she wrote that quote because of my Jewish origin because of my love for Mexico and because I feel like a citizen of the world I share with Millions the desire for justice equality fraternity and peace and therefore I can only see with horror the image of the state bombings uh no reason justifies the murder of Palestinian civilians nothing nothing nothing can justify the murder of a child when you said earlier there is some question about whether or not the person that she has been previously in her political career will be the person that she is as president was her stance on uh the humanitarian crisis in Palestine and the long-standing fight for Statehood a part of that it it would be absolutely shocking this would be the most massive surprise if if she were to turn on amlo and and his International alliances I I fully expect her to uh to continue amro's position on on Gaza for sure uh maybe even joining South Africa many even expect her to radicalize a little bit in that because amlo's history was with the hegemonic party which was ideologically very fluid and amlo has been ideologically very fluid uh Claudia Shan Bal is not known to be very ideologically ideologically fluid she is is known to be hardle uh hard left in a global sense so so I I mean a left that would be off the scales here in the United States uh maybe maybe far to the left of Bernie Sanders kind um which which puts her in a pretty good company globally but but all that to say it would be very very very surprising if she not only Gaza if she doesn't continue very close relationships with communist Cuba with Nicolas maduro's regime in in Venezuela and possibly with uh with the Nicaraguan regime Al although human rights violations might uh might scare even the most ideological allies away uh but she she's she's definitely she's not going to she's not going to lead her foreign policy with an ideological reproach with with the United States that would be incredibly surprising yeah that's what I was going to um ask about how you uh predict the relationship between the US and Mexico to develop with you know with immigration illegal border crossings being such a pival issue becoming you know one of the top two or three issues in our own upcoming US Presidential um elections so much uh pressure being put on um on uh B you know Biden offering this a very uh serious uh border deal that then Republicans rejected is not even being Tough Enough many Democrats actually upset that they offered that much you know this kind of thing is very important to the American political um discourse so how does having a new president in Mexico affect that I mean the Biden Administration can only hope for continuity uh Lopez sador has very transactionally uh imported uh us human rights violations at the at the border and just made them made them his own uh he's deported it's not really deported but re relocated uh tens maybe hundreds of thousands of foreign Nationals from Mexico's northern border back to Mexico's Southern border when they don't have the capability to to actually Deport them to their home countries um he's used the the security apparatus of the Mexican state more to keep migrant numbers down for President Biden and and what the question is um obviously they they know that keeping those numbers down is some favors uh Biden ahead of November uh shambe Bob takes office on October 1st uh what so two questions whether they'll be able to continue this policy because it's not sustainable just moving people back uh you know if the numbers of migrants within Mexico keep increasing at some point you know the Dam breaks um and and the other question is whether they want to whether whether Morena that's a populist very populist party um that's going to have a constitutional majority in in Mexican Congress uh that's that's not um it's not a traditional democratic party it fits better in the 21st century among the populist nationalists than it does among sort of the uh traditionalist liberal Democrats small D um so what do they want out of the US election and they know that you know if on October 1st suddenly we have half a million people crossing the border that is obviously not very good for Biden uh what is Biden what can Biden offer them um you know it's it's a very there are more questions and answers but but that that uh that exchange is going to be crucial over the next six months but after November the question is is migration really going to be still that big of an issue without election on top of us that regardless of who wins and the US and Mexico have the largest bilateral trading relationship on Earth will will the uh will the issues the usmca potential usmca issues on energy policy on corn policy things that uh Mexico has been accused of violating the usmca um will those bubble up to real trade disputes between the two countries and will the focus go there will security stay the focus will fentel stay the focus it's a very complicated relationship rafhael thank you so much for joining us we appreciate it pleas [Music]

Channel: The Hill

Views: 21,681

Keywords: Rising, Progressive, Progressive Politics, Democrats, Democratic Party, Republicans, GOP, Republican Party, Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico, President, Border, Migrant Crisis, Drug Cartel, Biden, Trade Deals, Bilateral

Id: nDAnALWxFGM

Length: 13min 12sec (792 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 03 2024