>> Max, give us your top level.
Take away because both Biden and Trump won. But President
Biden is winning by significantly more. >> Sure. You know, it's it's
interesting because what the Republicans will say tonight to
try to draw attention to that uncommitted vote, which in many
ways, is is a vote, is an expression vote. It's trying to
send a message to a president that they still believe in, but
they're looking to express themselves, which is democracy
at its finest. But when you look at the Republican side,
right, there is no one with a pollster who believe that Nikki
Haley could win tonight. And nonetheless, nearly
one-third of voters came out to vote against Donald Trump and
vote for her. That right. There is a vote about where
they will stand in November and that's the essence of Donald
Trump's week. This here, Donald Trump is a former
president should be winning 90% of the vote. 85 1% of the vote.
But what he's constantly seen in primary after primary is
yes, he's got the base locked down but he is shrug going with
a ceiling that same soon that the Republicans saw in 22 in 20
and it's that ceiling that hates MAGA extremism. And
nonetheless, today, once again, we see evidence of it. >> Republicans are a party
divided. And people often like to say will both parties are
divided. But is that even true? You know, because just look at
Congress, right? President Biden's agenda, right? He has
had a largely centrist foreign policy agenda, a progressive
economic agenda and his work. If you look at how Democrats
have voted in Congress since he took office there basically all
on the same page, Republicans, they cannot even get their
faction in order. >> Well, you know, they used to
say I'm not a member of an organized political party.
I'm a Democrat, though. Those days are long gone. Of course,
Speaker Pelosi had a razor thin margin and was able to
successfully advance out of the House monumental legislation
and literally the Republican caucus with a similar margin
could organize themselves out of a paper box. So it's they
are totally disorganized. They can't get their act
together. And that's also being reflected in these electoral
results. Time and again, there's a really sure strong
electoral bloc that wants nothing to do with MAGA base
extremism. That block is in the Republican Party. That block is
in independence and that block is, of course, slow voters. >> Michael, the Biden team
knows how crucial make Michigan will be in November. What are
they taking away tonight? What are you hearing from them? >> Well, 70, when you think
about why the Biden campaign, why the DNC and why President
Biden himself wanted Michigan to be part of this early the
window right to the earliest. They've never voted in a
nominating contests. It was because they wanted to
highlight some of the strengths that President Biden has among
key voting coalitions among black voters among union
workers who have been so important to President Biden.
That's the event he came here to do with those autoworkers
ahead of the primary. But what is also done is expose some of
the vulnerabilities that the president does need to work on.
If he's going to carry Michigan by the margins he needs to in
order to be reelected president. Now we talk about
Dearborn spent all day talking to voters and Dearborn and they
are very animated and motivated to vote against the president
to vote for this uncommitted ballot line because they want
to send a message about what's happening in Gaza right now,
but that you're not going to see that replicated across the
country because obviously the American population is
significant there in a way that it's not elsewhere. But whereas
Steve Kornacki was laying out, there was also a significant
uncommitted vote was college campuses. We know that the
Biden campaign has struggles with younger voters again, see
that on college campus across the country. The president just
last week I was with them in California. He was holding
about student loans. He didn't do it on a college campus in
part because they're concerned about the protests that have
been emerging at these events. So, yes, this is a good night
for Joe Biden. He's going to win the state is going to show
some strength among those key voting groups he wanted to
highlight. But it also does show some warning signs that a
lot of Democrats have been trying to raise with the
campaign that they need to address. But, Stephanie, they
do have time to address between now and November. >> But mark, those uncommitted
voters are voting against the president for now, as Max put
it an expression vote because they are not happy about his
support for Israel. But we also know that right now the
president is pushing for a cease-fire. So is that proof
that their efforts are working? He is listening. >> It could be. And I think
we're going to see a few things May 1st when you see the exit
polling coming out and what voters now angry, basically, a
lot of these protesters are whether they're planning to
come home or whether they're not going to vote for Biden
under any circumstances to get a sense of whether the
situation in the Middle East, the matter have changes will be
so intractable that could change their vote. I think the
bigger issue is, frankly, young voters, I mean, is is
Steve was saying earlier in places like Ann Arbor, East
Lansing, big, big call times which, you know, growing
suburban populations around them. I mean, are these voters
going to come home? And I think in the whole of it of and by
and seems to have had a pretty good night just like he did in
New Hampshire, even though he wasn't on the ballot. And there
was some talk to Dean Phillips. I was going to weigh over
perform for the Bears and they're needed. South Carolina.
He did find were, as Trump seems to be underperforming his
polling to some degree, which I think could be very troubling
for for the Trump campaign. But ultimately, I mean, we're
going to see, you know, whether Democratic voters are going to
come home in the long term. And they're certainly warning
signs here. But also so it looks like the whole of the
party seems to be so the gun barred. But >> Mark, you've covered
Governor Gretchen Whitmer extensively. What kind of
position is she in? Well, she is a superstar surrogate
for the president. She's also in a complicated position
needing to be sensitive to her constituents who are casting
those protest votes. >> Yeah, she's been extremely
cautious in her rhetoric has been, I mean, really, really
scripted. And she's usually a fairly their freewheeling
rhetorical politician to some degree in some ways. I mean,
she's running ahead of Biden, certainly in polls. And I think
that, you know, I think especially on the abortion
issue that you've been very, very solid with suburban lot of
suburban, even Republicans that had sort of fled the the the
Republican coalition over the last few years have been very
strong there. But, yeah, I mean, I think she's kind of
riding into being miniature the same cut away for the same kind
of, you know, the delicate situation that Biden has.
And I think, you know, I think she is, you know, a little bit
better position now, but I think Biden is the one thing is
for really feel the brunt of it going forward. >> Max, nobody thought Nikki
Haley was going to win, but she still staying in the race with
this idea that she's running as an understudy. She's running as
the backup quarterback. But let's say Donald Trump does get
knocked out. She's not going to control the delegates and I
can't imagine they will turn and say the person who is the
thorn in Donald Trump's side. Now we're going to back her
that Mitt Romney. >> We'll have a better chance
of winning the Republican nomination. Nikki Haley at this
point, you know, it's almost commendable the way in which
she's burned basically every bridge, a relationship that she
had in the party because the party is not representative of
that old-school republicanism any any longer or at least that
only a small sliver of it. You know it in the end, the
Republican Party would like to talk so much about this cult of
personality. I think it's gotten beyond that at this
point it is centered around a MAGA extremism that goes well
beyond Donald Trump and will live well beyond him. And we
would certainly see that. Should there be an open
contested primary with Trump not on the ballot. >> Michael, explain this one to
U.S.. President Biden made history in Michigan last year
when he joined an autoworker picket line. No president has
ever done that before. But new numbers from NBC show he's
actually losing ground among union households to Donald
Trump since 2020. Why is that? Is it about the everyday
inflation cost of groceries that have people down? >> You know, it's a it's a
fascinating question is one that the Biden campaign is
spending a lot of time working on and we have seen that the at
the leadership level, some of the nation's largest unions and
their leadership have come out to see stickley to support
President Biden. But we are seeing something of a
disconnect with some of those rank-and-file members of those
unions at it is rich like inflation. You also can look at
the Teamsters union, the firefighters union. They have
not yet endorsed President Biden. Firefighters in were the
first union to import endorsed candidate Joe Biden for years
ago. In fact, even did it before he got into the race.
And when I spoke with one of the firefighter union
representatives about why that is, he said, well, our members
have other issues to be mentioned inflation. But he
also mentioned the Second Amendment rights that as
another example of ways in which these rank and file for
members maybe aren't lining up with the leadership. So the
president really does have an economic story to tell. They
want to spend more time over the course of the year
translating this, that the to sticks that we talk about that,
you know so well, Stephanie, in a way that the average voter
will understand when you look at the State of the Union
address next week, Stephanie, that's a major moment that the
Biden campaign hopes to really begin that conversation with
voters, including union workers. >> All right. Let's turn now to
another major issue for Washington and the country.
Congress now has 3 days to prevent a partial government
shutdown. Again, my colleague Kelly O'Donnell has a look at
today's big meeting that took place at the White House. Their meeting described as
intense yet productive. The president and congressional
leaders facing urgent deadlines. >> And differing priorities
from critical aid for foreign allies. I think the
consequences of inaction, everything, Ukraine, 2 tired to
House Speaker Mike Johnson insisting the border crisis
requires executive action from the president. >> The first priority of the
country is our border and making sure it's secure. >> On top of that divide,
threat of a phased federal government shutdown. >> Friday, the first wave of
government departments and agencies run out of funds among
them. The FDA transportation and Veterans Affairs March ace.
The rest could close including defense homeland Security and
justice. A painful replay for 36 year Old Navy wife and
mother of 2 Nikita Fowler. >> This is not our first or
even second government shutdown and it's just a continuous
worry of how this is going to impact our family. Given the
harsh consequences. Talk of common ground. >> Shut down damage, economy
significantly by for just >> optimism. But no clear path
yet from the speaker. We will get the government funded and
we'll keep working on that. >> Well, they really, max, you
came into Congress in 2019 during a government shutdown when they come back from
vacation. One of these negotiations really going to
look like and are they in good face? So here's the deal.
The most important negotiations are actually happening within
the Republican caucus. >> And, you know, the speaker's
challenge is that he's wasted all his political capital, of
course, after they kick McCarthy out, they said we
can't do this again next week say that, you know, Johnson had
some some room to maneuver. That's all gone. The second
element of this, though, is that there's a significant
portion of the Republican caucus that's never actually
lived through a government shutdown. Marjorie Taylor
Greene has never had to go through this and what they
don't understand because they've never lived it is that
when you instigate a government shutdown is a guaranteed
political loser. This is to say nothing of the fact that the
Republican Party right now wants that government shutdown
because they want to cut funding for those most in need
and want to cut funding for our fight against extremism and
radicalism abroad and not to be there for our allies. That's
why they want to shut down government and the American
people to a vast extent don't support that. So what they're
going to have to see, right, if they do shut down the
government is they'll start to see polls will start to see
people going on social media, turning against them to start
to get calls from their constituents and they have to
experience that new order come back to the table. So there's
still a chance there's still a possibility, but it's not going
to be Speaker Johnson, who's going to actually be the one
leading this. It is the extreme flake of his own party that
kicked out McCarthy and now controls. >> Mark, a government shutdown
does not help Trump. It does not help Republicans, but does it help depressed the
votes? People might not get off the couch in November for a
government that doesn't work for them. >> No, that's it. But that you
typically people will look to Republicans, especially since
they control the House will be seen as driving this. And
there's a sense of hope. There are a lot more grown ups
in the Senate in the White House at this point. And every
time that the Republican Congress is front and center
will soon as repeatedly over the last certainly year to
have, it's a really bad look for them. It's nothing but
chaos. And there's not a sense that anyone is in charge.
And look, I mean, Speaker Johnson is in a really, really
rough position now. It's unclear. You know, how we could
navigate this and still keep a job. Many could probably do a
deal, probably, you know, get it passed with a lot of
Democratic votes, which would almost certainly lead to some
kind of vacating of the chair, which is the same thing could
happen in a car. Then they have the next iteration of chaos.
So, look, I mean, it's it's never good. I think for
Republicans won the House. Republicans are front and
center. It looks like that's what's going to happen here. >> And this looks bad today.
But when it comes to the judge, making a decision, finding
evidence that would remove her to move the needle, what we saw
today. >> A little bit because this is
no longer a question of a conflict of interest as much as
it is about lying because nation waits. Minutes warrant
affidavit that said the relationship began after he was
hired. A special counsel may split the expenses. Now the
judge has to determine whether he's telling the truth. And if
in fact is proven that he and funny will slide to the court,
then they probably will be thrown off the case and
sanction possibly by the Georgia bar. >> Let's say the judge does
throw the masa case. Then what happens to the investigation if
she chose to step down now versus if the judge removes
her? >> If she chose to step down,
then the same thing would happen as if she is removed.
It would go to the attorney general and then reassigned to
another district attorney in Georgia who probably won't have
the zeal about this case is funny Willis and it will be
slow off to my opinion. We don't know for sure. But one
thing I think for sure we know is that this case is not going
to try before the election. And if she start off the case
may never be tried at all. >> This has become so no noisy.
That Fani Willis is now the central focus of the Georgia
case. I do not remember the last time we talked about
Donald Trump and the 20 odd other co-defendants. How big of
a problem is that? >> It's a problem. This is an
unforced error. You know, the big lights are up on you
when you go after the former president and you act
recklessly like this. So look, even if there was no conflict
here by the fact that they submitted that affidavit to the
court that set this whole thing in motion, this hearing never
had to happen. They could have come clean and then I think
they would have moved on. I think Nathan Wade should have
been removed for as special counsel. But now that this is
already gone too far, and I think this is headed, it was
very likely disqualification. >> OK, let's say she's allowed
to stay on. How does she do her job successfully? I don't know
that I see a scenario where her name is out of this story. >> Well, I think at least one
of them will be disqualified. I think Nathan Wade has to go
here. I think she could survive possibly if she survived.
She has to just rely on the other 2 special prosecute.
That's something a lot of people don't remember here is
that he's not the only special prosecutor. There are 3 of them
and they're all getting paid the same hourly rate. He Nathan
Wei just happens to be building a lot more than the others.
And he is the one with the special relationship. When
you're playing to our audience, why he bills more than others,
that in and of itself raises a flag to some. He's the head
guy. Now, the biggest problem I had is that on one day he built
for 24 hours in the day. I've never heard anyone doing
that and no, come on. Now, lawyers, there's one thing you
all know how to do bill over 24 hours, right is in so that it
doesn't look great. And there's this perception of a conflict.
But to remove her, you have to have an actual conflict of
interest and they don't have that. I still don't think they
have it right now, but it's not about a conflict anymore.
It's about whether they live. And that's what I mean by a
self-inflicted wound.
