The Next 6 Months: What To Expect

the price of corn is up 32 in the first quarter of this year beef is up 17 the price of chicken is up 25 in just the last two months alone you have probably noticed that the price of gasoline is up 41 as well still you may not have yet seen that the cost of a metric ton of olive oil is up over 182 percent since the start of this year that has it yet trickle down to your grocery store shelves but it will so what's going on gasoline is actually in a surplus there are mostly enough cows and chickens there hasn't been a collapse in olive orchards shortages aren't always tied to singular events but distinct events can lead to shortages for consumers when we think of shortages we tend to only think of them as the unavailability of a product because it isn't available anywhere it used to be that when the potato got blight or the drought wiped out crops that was it none of that crop was available to anyone but shortages have become very complex over the years as a global supply chain has sprung up sometimes there's a shortage of a crop but on a dock somewhere tons of it are rotting away this video will examine some of the shortages looming on the horizon and what you can do about them from crops to pharmaceuticals to fuel this year is shaping up to be the year of shortages so let's take a look please consider subscribing to our newsletter by clicking on the link in the description and comment section below if you enjoyed this video please subscribe and click the like button to help the channel grow food shortages recent research sponsored by the global credit ratings agency moody's concluded that by the end of the century parts of the us and europe are now bound to experience severe reductions in rainfall equivalent to the american dust bowl of the 1930s which devastated midwest farming for a decade food shortages are the most glaring shortages we face but they don't have to just come from drought-induced crop failures more than 1 000 barges backed up on the major transport artery near memphis after engineers discovered a significant fracture on the hernando de soto bridge connecting arkansas and tennessee via interstate 40. many of those barges contain grain to put this in perspective each barge has about seven semi-tractor trailers full of grain this caused crop prices to soar higher than the record highs and stop the flow of grain to new orleans which accounts for about 47 percent of grain exports this was a short-term disruption but it did hit crop markets where soybeans and corn futures have risen to multi-year highs amid adverse weather in latin america and a buying spree from china even a short-term disruption like this causes a rippling price increase on everything from plastics to dog food to bread and corn syrup food commodities are up 31 in price over last year this is a commodities increase that's long before the farmer invests the manufacturer purchases and processes the raw materials and so forth the price trickles down to the consumer in the form of smaller portions and higher prices you may have noticed that the beef or your last bbq seemed a little pricier than usual that's because the price has risen 17 this year before the product even arrived at your butcher and it's about to get much higher a cyber attack on jbs sa forced a shutdown of all its usb plants wiping out output from facilities that supply almost a four quarter of american supplies slaughter operations across australia were also down and one of canada's largest bee plants was idled jbs sa is the largest meat producer globally it's unclear exactly how many plants globally have been affected by this most recent ransomware attack one thing that is abundantly clear is that ransomware hackers have focused in on infrastructure and commodities because they know that it creates a maximum pain and pressure and is most likely to result in swift and hefty ransoms being paid there have been over 40 reported attacks against food companies just in the last year and attacks of this nature are accelerating expect the price of beef to soar in the coming weeks also feeding the cattle that can't be slaughtered means that feed grain bills and demand for feed grains will also skyrocket that will apply further pressure on an already challenged grain market also fewer truckers will be transporting those cattle to stockyards continued ransomware attacks aside meat has been a rising price for some time it's not just beef that's about to soar in price chicken is up 25 percent salmon is up 33 this year but the supply seems fine we aren't witnessing massive cow chicken or fish die offs so why the increased cost some might try to dismiss this or blame whatever current political leadership is in office but they fail to see the bigger picture these are global prices if you measure the increase in price in russian rubles or japanese yen or icelandic krona the price increases are the same the reality is that these current spikes are for multiple different reasons in some cases farming and production has suffered from poor conditions and there are classic shortages in most areas however there is still an abundance in some cases the global supply chains have been disrupted by the temporary closures of the suez canal the mighty mississippi even the colonial pipeline kelvin 19 has impacted processing plant workers agriculture workers and even truckers it is slow consumer spending which forced some producers to ratchet back production now they're having to ramp up to meet high demand but increased demand increases consumer costs in some cases the product is just being held back from the market in hopes of a better price for example vegetable oil prices have soared in recent months placing upward pressure on food prices sunflower oil has almost doubled since last year olive oil has been affected by the reduced yields across the mediterranean with rising prices amplified by some crusher's reluctance to sell in anticipation of higher prices consumers will see significant inflation in olive oil as bottlers are trying not to buy and sellers are trying not to sell that's a perfect recipe for prices of skyrocket when the bottlers have to replenish stocks so while the olive oil shortages partially due to reduced yields it is more driven by greed and manipulating the supply and demand equation you can't miss these short supplies and high prices because you don't eat corn beef chicken or use olive oil agricultural products are broken down into thousands of other food products fuel plastics and fibers for countless products are all grown and sold as a price of olive oil sores all these olive oil users will buy up the vegetable oil reducing supply and driving up the price further there the reality of food shortages is that there can be plentiful harvest but nothing makes it to your store table or you get price out of the product altogether expect food shortages to continue through this year with compounding unique and very nuanced problems that go far beyond a low yielding harvest adjust in time production processing and distribution system that has already failed repeatedly in just the last few years will continue to wreak havoc with consumer side supply you can do three things to weather this problem that i see continuing at least into the near future for a couple of years prep grow and cook your best installation from supply and price fluctuations is an adequate food supply on hand if you have a few days of food build it to a few weeks of food if you have a few weeks of food prep make it a few months if you have a few months you guessed it make it a full year supply second grow something whether you are growing sprouts on your countertop or tomatoes on your patio you need to be supplementing the consumption from your table with sources that aren't already tied to the us dollar maybe that means investing in a good book on foraging and learning how to cook with daniel lyons or hunt for lion's mane mushrooms finally you may insulate yourself from coming food shortages by learning to cook and cooking on a daily basis sadly many are paralyzed when they can't instantaneously grab a bite out or pick up the phone and get a food delivery food from restaurants is marked up considerably these rising costs and shortages will pass through the restaurant to you remember that when one fast food restaurant launched what they called the six dollar burger the price was at six dollars that was just a high priced name that they gave it to represent what a big luxurious burger it was people at the time said that they would never actually pay six dollars for a burger it was actually only 3.95 cents in 2001 while they no longer carry that same burger the cost today for a burger alone at the same restaurant ranges between six and eleven dollars learn to prep grow and gather your food and learn to cook you will be more prepped for supply disruptions your health will be better and you will save hundreds and hundreds of dollars medicine shortages china is the world's largest producer of active pharmaceutical ingredients or apis china is the source of 40 of the global apis the bulk of these ingredients that make up everything from aspirin to antidepressants throat lodges gets shipped to india five years ago india exported to the united states almost four billion dollars worth of pharmaceuticals that staggering number has only grown exponentially higher over the last half decade strain trading relationships with china and a staggering 28.2 million cova cases in india are slowing and halting production of supply chains so though china has restored the production of apis the output of the over-the-counter pharmaceuticals and some prescription drugs are experiencing a slowdown while the inventory of over-the-counter medications is high in most countries panic buying and just regular consumption and expiration of drugs will lead to shortages a shortage of one drug can cause panic buying in another which further exacerbates the shortage equation global trading channels are shaking off their complete shutdown and reopening still the actual production of products is now experiencing disruptions from lack of workers to lack of confidence in the product alternative drugs may be less effective reaction dosage amounts and risk of error all accompany having to switch to new medicines at any given moment the fda reports over a hundred different drugs currently in shortage over-the-counter remedies are often one of the most overlooked preps most people even preppers find themselves with outdated medications or find themselves running out of medications after disaster strikes because their supplies were insufficient you should treat over-the-counter medications as one of your top 10 preps i have a video in production where i do a deep dive into over-the-counter preps you can subscribe to this channel to be notified when that video is released release fuel shortages we've come a long way from the 1970s so the reason for fuel shortages back then don't always translate one to one with the shortages and prices we see today the gas crisis of the 1970s was prompted by two events a war between israel and surrounding arab countries and the iranian revolution both of which resulted in severe cuts in the supplies of oil from the middle east while we continue to see conflict in the middle east and may see a conflict there throughout our lifetimes it's only part of the problem production is actually high the only real shortage was brought on by panic buying a fuel depleting service station reserves on the east coast when the colonial pipeline was shut down by eastern european likely russian hackers while it's completely stopped the flow of fuel in the main pipeline reserves were high and the flow was restored in short order the paying of the ransom by the owners of the colonial pipeline has only further emboldened this group in similar groups and they will likely strike additional targets in the us and abroad there have been 40 reported ransomware attacks over the last 12 months and they are only increasing as a result of the solar winds hacked of last year the attack on the beef industry was just the most recent attack the colonial pipeline was just yesterday's attack what's next these ransom attacks on the critical infrastructures absolutely will continue and may cause supply shortages at any time also millions of people stuck at home for more than a year are expected to hit the road for much needed post pandemic vacations this summer that's a problem for multiple reasons first there is a genuine shortage of tanker truck drivers somewhere between 20 to 25 percent of tank trucks in the fleet are parked heading into the summer due to a lack of qualified drivers the pandemic has further dwindled the qualified driver's pool tank operators are raising pay to try and attract more drivers they're passing those costs to retail outlets which then pass the costs onto you guessed it you there could be places throughout the country where they are completely sold out even if only a few stations run out of gas that could spark a run on gasoline as drivers start topping off their tanks to avoid running dry on the road a sudden spike in prices a falling supply chain the supply outage anywhere any hurricanes hitting the gulf coast and continued global conflict will all result in shortages and rising prices what can you do though if you had a military occupation as a 88 m you might apply to a tanker truck driver realistically though the shelf life of gas is between 3 to 12 months and that's if you have the means to sort it properly driving less isn't going to help you when it comes to fuel shortages or price spikes because the cost of transporting anything from food to televisions to electric cars will all be made up out of your pocket from plane tickets to train tickets prices will go up from the cost of a hotel room to the cost of a mill out prices will go up the cost of products getting from the field or manufacturer to your home will escalate any perceived shortage can lead to panic buying and further disruptive ripples in the supply chains even the power used in your home is tied to the fossil fuel industry the only real solution beyond a significant investment in energy and grid independence which isn't a possibility for most is to reduce your consumption need for consumption having some alternative means of energy production like a small solar generator sufficient to run a small heater or solar power cooler is becoming almost a necessity the energy infrastructure isn't likely to improve anytime soon so whether it is a grid going down or lack of tanker drivers expect spikes and costs at the very least in shortages and outages at the worst prepare accordingly make sure you can live with minimal power if the situation demands it more shortages so understanding that shortages can occur even in times of abundance we're all facing shortages of food over-the-counter drugs and fuel here is a quick list of several other shortages that you may already be feeling computer chip shortage you may have noticed a chip shortage this chip shortage is a problem for consumers wanting anything with a computerized component and that is pretty much anything you buy today from mobile phones cars to televisions if you don't see high prices and back orders in your area you will a drought in taiwan coupled with kova 19 woes have seen supplies evaporate plastics texas is a crucial plastics exporter the winter storms force many plants offline and they are more challenging to restart than you might think rising plastic costs result in rising packaging costs these costs have already increased 40 percent this year alone that cost gets transferred to the price of almost every product you buy palm oil palm oil production has suffered from both floods and labor shortages palm oil is not used as a cooking oil but is widely used in food processing it is found in many supermarket products including bread pastries cereal peanut butter chocolate and margin it's also used in personal products like shampoo cosmetics cleaning products and biodiesel global demand is growing dramatically at a time where output continues to dwindle so while you may never feel a shortage because it isn't in your pantry on a daily basis you will feel the impact of the shortage when manufacturers and food processors have to stop or throttle back production lumber while some mills were forced to close temporarily during the pandemic a white hot housing market those working from home looking to delve into their home projects and build more space and continued demand for furniture and pulp have all driven lumber prices up tremendously while inventory is high in some areas and low in others the lumber problem is further complicated by the trucking and distribution difficulties tariffs on canadian lumber have also forced prices higher the cost of a new home is an average of about thirty six thousand dollars if you're looking for a bedroom set prepare to get in the back order log as you will be waiting for at least a few months for delivery so while there is still lumber available the soaring costs amount to a shortage of availability for the average consumer drive up the prices and lower the inventory of thousands of other consumer products chicken and pork due to the increased demand and shortages caused by devastating winter storms in texas chicken is getting harder to get raising chickens in large scale production facilities isn't easy nor very healthy it's created a very fragile supply chain susceptible to failure expect these shortages to continue and you should try to find local sources for both eggs and chicken the pork shortage dates back to the early plant closures due to covet outbreaks now inventories have been brought then so though plants are reopening demand outstrips supply coffee coffee production is stable worldwide only down a few percentage points from previous years but shipping delays will cause shortages and price spikes container ships are backed up at several key ports if you're a coffee drinker now would be the time to stock up and long term store some beans for later use chlorine one fire at the chlorine manufacturer bio lab in louisiana in september of last year has resulted in the worst chlorine shortage in u.s history this will affect pool owners but also anyone that uses chlorine-based products for cleaning or sterilization that would include individual consumers as well as manufacturers of other products while the three biggies of food fuel and medicine they won't get any better in the near future there are quite a few other shortages on the horizon which haven't completely been fully realized hopefully this video has alerted you to a few of these coming scarcities if you take one thing away from this it should be that decreasing your dependence on a just-in-time manufacturing and distribution system it should be your priority if you want to run to the store for a couple of extra pounds of beef or a couple of extra bottles of olive oil i can't say that would be a bad idea a shortage being completely out of inventory or an outage isn't tidying longer to the traditional notions of low yield or decimated crops it can be driven today by massive upheavals in the supply and demand equation transportation and distribution disruptions or just plain greed and profiteering weather and climate of course are still right in the mix if you've been prepping for a while now is the time to assess your future needs and adjust accordingly if you're new to prepping you have your work cut out for you as we are already amiss supply shortages in several areas the solution is to become more local than global take the time to seek out local sources for at least some of the food you consume the second part of the solution is to get lean reduce your dependence on a system that is continually showing you how fragile and broken it is finally get prepping get your food and water and energy supplies up to a level to sustain you for a short period and then continually start to build up on that amount of time solid prepper doesn't have to worry too much about a shortage as they have already set aside means of sustaining themselves and they are already implementing the skills of self-sufficiency what do you think what's the shortage you think beginning preppers should take most account for what's your solution when the supply stops tell us in the comments below i read me the comments and respond to them when i can that's typically within the first hour of releasing the video if you found this video informative and helpful please click the thumbs up icon it's a little thing but it helps us build our community i can notify you when other videos became available if you subscribe to this channel as always stay safe out there

Channel: City Prepping

Views: 896,689

Rating: 4.9245629 out of 5

Keywords: shortages, hyperinflation, inflation, consumer demand, supply shortage, prepper, preppers, doomsday preppers, emergency preparedness

Id: DQuF8YYUX_k

Length: 20min 29sec (1229 seconds)

Published: Sat Jun 05 2021