How lucky is too lucky?: The Minecraft Speedrunning Dream Controversy Explained
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Channel: Stand-up Maths
Views: 3,090,235
Rating: 4.9510002 out of 5
Keywords: maths, math, mathematics, comedy, stand-up
Id: 8Ko3TdPy0TU
Channel Id: undefined
Length: 39min 47sec (2387 seconds)
Published: Thu Feb 04 2021
Please note that this website is currently a work in progress! Lots of interesting data and statistics to come.
The bottom line of the video is great.
If 10 billion humans did the same number of trades/blaze kills every second 24/7 for a century the odds are still around1/1000 that someone would get Dreams luck.
You don't need error corrections or need to account for bias when the numbers are this ridiculous.
Much better explained maths than any of the other technical videos out there. Great watch.
He criticised the original paper for doing a lot of stuff that wasn't necessary. And, tbh I agree. Whilst I don't think geosquare and the mod team were wrong, I think Matt Parker puts it brilliant how all of the nonsense is unnecessary.
But, at the same time, they knew that if they didn't give Dream all the benefit of the doubts they could've they would be accused of bias.
Turns out they were accused of bias anyway, but I think their attempts at being unbiased paid off in public opinion.
Ultimately this was already settled. The consensus is that Dream cheated. Dream fans know this and don't care in favour of watching his content. Speedrunners and speedrun fans are disheartened at how someone took advantage of speedrunning for self gain and cheated.
First video I've seen on the topic that explains the maths really well
This is a really weird clash of worlds for me. Hearing Matt Parker talking about speedruns is pretty crazy.
Unrelated, haven't watched Matt in some years, and hadn't seen what he looks like recently. Have to say, that's a damn good beard.
Good video. By giving a comparison to other numbers the extreme odds are much easier to grasp imo. This also better counters the whole argument of 'but it technically COULD have happened'.
It's interesting to see other records of games (that are actually played much more than games are speed run, lets be honest). It puts into perspective what 'realistic' numbers look like. Basically, if games like roulette and crabs, which are played ALL over the world ALL the time, have records with chances in the ballpark of 1 in 1010, then anything above that should be looked that with suspicion. (For reference, Dream's speed run had a chance of 1 in 1022)
Someone in the comments made an excellent observation, if you limit the calculation to the amount of people who own Minecraft and the amount of time that Minecraft has existed, it makes Dream's run even more improbable
Great video so much better than that other one done by ... whatβs his name patmat?