How Harley-Davidson Killed Itself

guys thanks for inviting me to the official Harley Davidson kickoff meeting now we've all been involved with new products before and maybe every single time it hasn't been you know quite perfect I think you know what I mean but this time this time it's going to be different oh here it comes Harley sales are down quarter after quarter after quarter after quarter they're bleeding out somehow the orange blooded will tell you this is not as catastrophic as it looks earnings per share are up outperforming the competition [ __ ] Harley's hoarding shares like a toilet paper prepper with diarrhea say EPS was a buck 50 in 2019 which it was they had 154 point 3 million outstanding shares so about 230 million dollars to payout but now the board has connived to buy back 18 point two million of these so the PI might only be split 136 billion ways for a buck 69 per share oh hey I just made how these dividends do a five-year jump never mind that the company didn't actually earn anything never mind that it conveniently benefits and board members who are paid by share performance and certainly never mind that it's an artificial sweetener for the year-end books we should only want to get away with once or twice or three times or four it's the craziest thing I've ever seen see buybacks are financed with debt or the otherwise draining of cash reserves reserves that are desperately needed should the economy dry up say oh I don't know during a pandemic all harley has been building is a taller and taller cliff to ride off what's up with Harley Davidson Harley's declines are certainly worse than the overall US industry but if motorcycle sales in general are down this year as well is Harley down because motorcycling is down US sales indeed went flaccid after the Great Recession weird thing though they stayed limp meanwhile the economy took viagra automotive sales hit the rebound even within the two-wheeled segment off-road in small displacement bikes or veer I'll so it's really only big highway bikes that stayed lane and overpricing doesn't seem to contribute as BMW Ducati triumph KTM are all up so who to blame for this aberration who accounts for the majority of large highway motorcycles sold in America it isn't that the poor motorcycle industry is dragging Harley down as the poor Harley sales are dragging the industry down so yes Harley Davidson is flatlined unresponsive damn near dead why most people blame me millennial Harley selling their soul to make smaller cheaper greener bikes and you still ain't buying them blah blah way away and the truth is that Harley killed themselves I wasn't me that stood by and let it happen because that poison was ingested 40 years ago [Music] our 1903 icon didn't really ikana PHY until World War two Hurley sent sixty-two thousand motorcycles up Hitler's ass most of which came home as battered as the troops that Rota veterans could buy their ex-army bikes for cheap chop off the Foo Bart stuff go AWOL on suburban life and take their PTSD on the road hence shoppers hardly became synonymous with wild roaming outcasts a counterculture [Music] [Applause] but counterculture belies the other half while peter Fonda's gumming Donald on his hog sister Jane is in Hanoi hugging the Vietcong I couldn't write a better personification of America has hardly solidified their image of the biker individualistic tri-colored and violent they left the rest of the market wide open communal bright-colored piece of it [Music] you'll have a lot of fun riding a Honda it can hold 45 miles an hour all day without complaint and you can run around all day on a nickels worth of gas you must admit you meet the nicest people on a Honda the world's biggest seller ooh well Harley is introducing bikers that fart and punch you in the teeth Honda comes along with women and children and tennis players my ads written in multiple languages ads shown at the Academy Awards never before had a company really sold bikes to non bikers of course you put more in than you get out by replacing muscle power with power you can ride a Honda eventually comes our critical moment Harley runs to Ronald Reagan crying save us we're a great made in America company protect us you asked us to give you breathing room so you could finish getting into shape to meet unexpectedly strong foreign competition that breathing room amounts to a 49% tariff on imported bikes over 750 cc s it fences off Harley's core market keeps it uncontested remember this Reagan's protection sparks an upward trend by 2006 as Harley's buyer reaches peak purchasing age the company Nets over 1 billion in profit but time is a relentless [ __ ] if the average Harley rider of his 43 in 1999 and 46 in 2004 and 48 in 2008 where are they now out to pasture Harley can speak Lluis least opt releasing these numbers so all we know for sure is that one of their best-selling models is a giant mobility scooter hey guys I'm not worried used anything you want me to tell him I don't care how faithful your faithful our senior citizens statistically by few bikes but even fewer once they're dead so in 2008 when the recession hit Harley releases their parachute the XR 1200 the retro-modern designed to seduce younger riders styled after the winningest bike in history the XR 750 flat tracker legend it rides phenomenally it prices excessively at 10k and no one bought it well this is an Indian FTR with better heritage and timing as the Ducati scrambler seven years before the scrambler and Harley preempted the biggest hipster cash cows and motorcycling but for them it was just a count unsold and quietly discontinued remember when Honda offered a challenge for Harley to diversify their image and instead Harley doubled down on their Hill to die on while Wild Ones age into wild hogs a parody of their former selves silly dad playing the rebel one-dimensional branding is short-sighted because what's cool to the previous generation isn't just not cool to the next it's actively uncool brand loyalty belies brand prejudice tomorrow's customers will look at a brilliant motorcycle and say okay boomer just look at the POS on the wall we've got 50 different pieces to use wasn't the whole emphasis with Harley I thought that we were no longer in the United States their largest market the emphasis was on Europe does this issue of baby boomers versus younger people apply overseas well nevermind the branding bed Harley made 40 years ago what's important to international sales is how they made it but my bet on you and on American tariffs remember this and by seeking Reagan's help Harley set a fatal precedent that of a national treasure worth protecting another move from US president Donald Trump that antagonizes his trading partners this time he targeted the global steel and aluminum industries so when Trump taxes imported steel and aluminum the EU responds by keeping America and the family jewels Kentucky Bourbon Levi's jeans and a littler company that had over drawn attention to itself Harley Davidson only whiskey and denim don't require much metal motorcycles do so now Harley is paying bigger money to make bikes that sell for smaller margins overseas eating 2,200 on every EU bike is untenable so HD does what most companies do ramp up production in Brazil India and Thailand so international models can dodge international taxes but hold on well harley-davidson is not most companies Harley Davidson decided to be a made in America sweetheart of the US government so naturally the people that ride Harley's are not happy with Harley David and I wouldn't be either bill does beautiful motorcycles in the USA please okay don't get cute with us he's not wrong nevermind tax dollars built hardly a house to live in I'd be pissed when they moved out - were you surprised by President Trump's reaction the anger as a business we just deal with what we have to deal with we are not a political organization we've worked very hard to be apolitical in how we approach our business and our consumers oh that is getting cute the only reason Trump's call it the boycott aren't empty is because they fulfill your deal with the devil partly sell your soul for exclusive access to a target market at the neglect of other markets and when you finally need new riders internationals guess what it costs harley-davidson is really dying a long term side effect of that pill they took in 1983 the aftertaste is sweetly ironic because Harley's last resort was their first opportunity do what Honda did to them target non bikers and we're creating more new products that are easier to ride than a bicycle just twist the throttle and go livewires went to electric bicycles point to new riders dozens of clothing stores opened in Asia point to it team all storefront point to new riders placements under Scarlett Johansson points to a new rider Academy for women point to new riders the more roads to Harley initiative razón lee shifts the company aim from building great motorcycles to building committed riders that's the plan now marketing 101 says avoid multiple challenges selling more existing riders on Harley's as possible selling non riders on motorcycling then selling them on Harley's Wow the person tasked was solving these issues is Harley CEO Matt leva touch it was the most difficult job in the world it's one thing for Honda to do it but Harley with their practiced ignorant of all things small and cheap it's no wonder Leavitt egde described a project has a long march the name borrowed from that famous retreat where the Red Army fled with 100,000 soldiers and made it home with fewer than 7,000 what fraction of Harley Davidson will survive leva touch was just sacked with 11 million retirement gifts how many salaries will that erase will HD disappear as a brand probably not as a motorcycle maybe it's 40 years too late for these long paths of retreat these now paths of doom I think Harley's best hope is to accept that their good run has waned into a good night focus back on cruisers and rage with your customers against the dying of the light and there is hope in hd's replacements CEO is a rogue who took command immediately de-emphasized poor roads then axed his own salary until the gang finds its ribs the easy routers showed up now that's exactly what they do why do you think I don't wear the colors jack why do they go right all alone you don't know about it anymore but I think you all want to get back on your bikes and go out and riding the highway until you remember what riding is all about [Music] okay pop takes after his mom [Music]

Channel: FortNine

Views: 3,341,225

Rating: 4.8709345 out of 5

Keywords: harley davidson, collapse, fail, bankrupt, shutting dowm, hd, america, usa, united states of america, economy, coronavirus, covid19, pandemic, businesses failing, motorcycles, motorcycle industry, cruisers, sportster, dyna, glide, road king, fat bob, fat boy, xr1200, canada, explained, fortnine, revzilla

Id: EOwxxsPaogY

Length: 14min 11sec (851 seconds)

Published: Sun May 17 2020

Reddit Comments

[u/Schm3ly]

"their best selling model is basically a mobility scooter"

[u/strangechicken]

There are so many good zingers in this one. If im understanding his thesis:

• Protectionism kills innovation
• Which makes them double down on old designs that don't appeal to anyone but their current base Edit: AND focus on brand image rather than making motorcycles. Good point /u/YourFairyGodmother
• And their base is dying out
• Now they are a literal parody with very bleak prospects at best

[u/TapoutAfflictionado]

I came to the same conclusion as him. HD should accept that their brand is shrinking and adjust accordingly. I'm not an HD/cruiser hater and I do think that there is still room in the market for a premium cruiser, but it will continue to shrink as time goes on. It's clearly a market that's worth being the king of due to the profit margins, but it's not a hill to die on.

If they want to expand again, then they probably need to create a holding company and split off HD into its own company. Their diversification should be spearheaded by having separate brands with different marketing campaigns. It's old hat to say that keeping Buell would have put them in a better position today(and I don't think that it would've), but maybe MV Agusta would have. It gives the holding company a clean slate and the HD side can freely use them as a hate-sink if the HD diehards complain about the new models.

[u/jsick]

I'm in the market for a cruiser and I'd love to get a HD Street Bob, but I can't justify spending $20k on a new bike, and the used market is still typically above $10k for older models that are decked out in tassels and chrome.

I make a decent income and I still can't afford HD so no wonder their market in stalled.

[u/Jimste7733]

It’s pretty obvious that the Harley riders themselves are to blame for their bad image, I have been riding Japanese motorcycles since the early 70’s, I wave to all approaching bikers, the only ones that don’t wave back are the HD riders. Riding what you want should have nothing to do with a brand name, put yourself on something that makes you happy. I’m always happy on my V-Strom. 🏍

[u/[deleted]]

I just don’t want to buy into the brand because of the toxic culture.

I always wave to everyone, Harley dudes wave maybe 10% of the time. All because my R6 isn’t a “real bike”.

It’s ruined it for me.

[u/IllegibleLetters]

A couple of other things probably holding back young buyers is location and/or living situation. Lots of young people are living in cities, where having a big, heavy bike is less convenient than smaller ones or scooters. I have a hard enough time parking my car, let alone the fact I don't have a garage to protect it from snow. Who is going to park their new Harley year round on city streets? It seems like something for a home owner. And that's kind of the 2nd part: many millenials are living at home longer, putting off marriage until later, and avoiding home ownership. There are a bunch of reasons, and this varies a lot based on where you are in the country, but it's probably a factor. If someone wants to go on big long rides, the heavy highway touring bikes make sense, but I think people of my generation want to spend their free time or vacations exploring urban areas rather than guys only road trips, where the bikes that made Harley famous like the Fatboy just don't fit as easily.

[u/server_busy]

He overlooked another huge factor- for decades now it wasn't enough to be "pro" Harley Davidson as an owner, it was expected to be "anti" every other bike brand made.

The barrel bodies and gray beards that rode them went out of their way to insult fellow motorcycle enthusiasts at every opportunity. And all because they didn't own a 900 pound oil leaking overpriced slow pile of shit with terrible handling.

Now they want to win over riders from other brands and court new riders?

Ya, fuck off with that. You burned that bridge years ago

[u/Spsurgeon]

Throughout history when a manufacturer was in trouble they built a simple, low-cost, reliable small vehicle and sold LOTS of them.