Port of our members so please raise, your hand if you are a member of the commonwealth club All right, well thank you so much for your support. Your the reason, why, we've lasted a hundred and fifteen years and here's to another Hundred, and fifteen more So welcome to our new building i, also, want to welcome our digital viewers we are live-streaming on facebook right now My, name is kimberly, moss i'm the vice president of development and it's always My, pleasure to welcome such a nice full sold-out audience to a great program at the commonwealth club Please silence your. Cell phones just take a minute to make sure those are turned off double check and while you do so i'll tell you about, some upcoming commonwealth club programs on February, 15th bloomberg's emily, chang, joins us in santa clara to talk about tackling the silicon valley's pervasive, boys, club, culture on March 5th our lee hast child sits down to discuss her book strangers in their Own land and how the political divide in america is more bridgeable than, we might think March 7th, we have amy, chua Best-selling author of the book battle, hymn of the tiger mother and she comes to talk about political tribalism All right for today's program if you have questions for mister from our guests please write your question on the question cards These these are on your seats And these will be collected throughout the program and brought to our moderator scott shafer senior editor of kqed z-- California politics and government desk and he will get to them as many of them as possible Mister fromm's new, book trump Bakra, see ya it's available for purchase outside of the room after the program and he'll be happy to sign your your copy I'll remind everyone that the commonwealth club is a nonpartisan organization? And we ask that our speakers be allowed to make their remarks without interruption lastly i just Want to give a thanks to united airlines for helping to bring mister fromm to san francisco today and now please give a Warm welcome to david frum and scott shafer thank you Good afternoon Welcome to the commonwealth club of california you can find us online at commonwealth club Org on facebook and twitter and on our youtube channel as Well my name is scott shafer senior editor of california politics and government at kqed i'm very pleased to be your moderator for this, afternoon's program Joining us is david frum former republican speechwriter senior editor at the atlantic and author of the new Book, trampa cracy the corruption of the american republic David made a name for himself in the george w bush administration as a speechwriter where he coined the term or helped coin the term axis of evil Later he would write the first insider book on the bush presidency in this book he discussed how the office of the president, was limited not by law, but by tradition propriety and public, outcry as We're seeing Alarmed, by the imminent decline of democracy in america's internal affairs david argues that the traditional limits placed on the presidency have been Weakened by president trump in his book, trump rc. David outlines how He thinks the president is degrading america's liberalism the possible consequences for our nation, and the world as Well as steps toward prevention, david thanks so much for joining us thank you And what a pleasure to? Be here in san francisco i promise not to tell anybody how, great it is and that that's so distracted obscene the bay back there is just like - roxy this information cannot cannot be allowed - Well i want to sort of start at the end because the conclusion of your book, is and i'm quoting here we're living Through, the most dangerous challenge to the free government of the united states that anyone alive Has encountered ice are you saying that this is sort of an existential threat for the nation it is it The country's institutions are in real trouble but, i want to make clear what the trouble is and what the trouble is not? Donald trump is not the heart attack of democracy is the gum disease of democracy? you You can, you can Die from gum disease but it doesn't happen instantly and it doesn't it only happens if it's allowed to Fester and the nature again of the of the threat i want to, also be clear about this that when donald trump, was first elected Many, people had suggested some kind of dramatic Comparison to the worst cases of democratic breakdown in history but i don't regard The survival of democracy as a light switch on or off it's a dial And there are a lot of ways that democracy can degrade and decline without it reaching the very worst outcomes the Moderately, bad outcomes are bad enough and those are what moderately, bad outcomes are what, we see in places like poland and hungary what We are seeing in south africa and india and Turkey, what we could see in france should the national front win there and that is the gradual politicization of law enforcement The loss of independence of your judiciary prep informal pressure brought to bear on the press both through public Pressure and also through private threat and the Collapse of ethical standards that have relied on public opinion to uphold them you can See this and hungary is really i think in many ways the model case hungry is a member of the european union a Signatory to the european convention on human rights and the Authoritarian leader of hungary, viktor orban has not wrongfully arrested a single person but He has amassed a giant fortune he has destroyed the integrity of law enforcement and of the courts he has and he's put enormous pressure to bear on critics and Effectively, he hasn't silent those critics, who write for very elite publications they're left Alone the critics in tv radio social media they come under pressure so we've seen things like Executive overreach we've seen corruption richard nixon for example Fdr tried to pack the courts yeah you know we've seen these, examples over the course of the country's history, how Does what's happening right now compared to those kinds of things, well i'm glad you put in historical perspective that's Where this all needs to be so me give you a somewhat longer view in order to fight the depression World war two and the cold war we in the united states strengthen the presidency enormous lee As the presidency got stronger there were also terrible abuses and many of the Abuses that, we collectively called watergate all had their origins in earlier times richard nixon Asked to see his opponents income tax returns franklin, delano roosevelt genuinely got his opponents income tax returns, what, did he, do with them He entertained dinner parties with embarrassing details From the more seriously more seriously he pressured joe kennedy not to run for president in 1940 with information from Joe kennedy would not have won he wasn't a very crutch but that that that his ambassador at the time that, was the consolation prize If you know if your might if you don't run i have a nice reward if you do run There are some disgraceful things in your past that i happen to know, about yeah Insanely franklin, delano roosevelt richard nixon, did wiretap a nominated political opponent franklin roosevelt Wiretap charles lindbergh, whom he was afraid Would become a nominated opponent so these things have antecedents what happened in watergate In that period was we impose we imposed? Oh, we took the post cold war presidency with all its powers and we put it under new, constraints and we? Said the fbi the cia, they can, no they now must report to congress as, well as the president well we need, higher ethical standards that's when the custom of The president releasing his tax returns, begins that's, when the law Is passed requiring the president the finance vice president to disclose financial information and a series of habits Develop and they last for half a century What, we are seeing with donald so it's not that, what donald trump is doing is entirely unthought-of in american history but? we were on one track From the, mid from over the past 50 years and we're now Back on another track and this time unlike the very powerful presidents of the cold war era who whatever you think about any particular thing, who are acting in with a, broad public vision in the context of Deadly, existential external threat to the united states this time you have the powers being taken By a president who's interested in nothing but his, own enrichment so part of what you're saying then, is that we are reverting back To, a time before watergate, when these traditions as you described them became common Mannan, here's the part that is really, new? in 1965 when the president, was had all these incredible powers it was congress at that time Was way more independent of the president even if congress and the president happened to share the same Party, affiliation jimmy carter had a democratic congress through all four Years bill clinton had a democratic congress for his first two years and yet in both cases congress Did overnight, stop things the president wanted to do in jimmy carter, was made by a, democratic congress By, pressure from them to sell his peanut farm that, was not republicans, who, made him, do that they, did they didn't have They, were mined in the minority in both houses it was democrats, who said you know and we now regard this as a? Joke, but it was quite a substantial farm and it was it was could have received Agricultural subsidies and congress said that you have to sell it or divest yourself to other family members What has happened now is at the same time as, we are breaking the post-watergate ethical restraints on the presidency we're Also seeing there are new, hyper partisan unity between congress and the president, where the old idea? Dating to the early, days of the republic that ambition, would balance ambition, that congress Would be one thing and the presidency would be a different thing We have seen jackson years checks and balances of which our metaphor i'm not a law They're, not checking because congress is acting not as an independent body but as fellow Republicans who are trying to pass a common, agenda, and need to protect and empower a president of the same party Well let's talk about one of those Fellow republicans devin newness who is a Congress may be regarded as an american hero yeah That's what trump i think tweeted right, yeah upside down man yeah so You know we've seen sort of appearance his appearance on the white house lawn late at night we've seen him Writing a, memo after it was approved By, this house intelligence committee so like, what's going on with devon newness and with this Memo, what's really happening Well again I, want to put this in a bit of perspective saying i know this is a i know i'm talking to who understand Well the workings of government and care a lot, about it the reason, we have intelligence committees and the house and senate They are created, after watergate and after the discovery of the real abuses at the fbi and cia Because they said it's not enough to trust the president with the oversight of these bodies congress needs its Own separate point of view and historically an appointment to these it was a real that they're the only committees With equal numbers of people from both parties at least the house come in and a tradition of bipartisanship i should Say nonpartisan on part more equal numbers and i think there's always one more for the majority party but it's Not the kind of lopsidedness you see another and then would they Also behave a little differently behave a little differently because and it's a it's a tremendous honor because you see these Very serious secrets of the united states So the i and you're Above all things not supposed to coordinate with the executive because you exist executive oversight Were all that was needed You, wouldn't need the committee in the first place the whole premise of the committee is congress needs its Own point of view as an institution not as an Adjunct of the majority of the moment congress as an institution and devon nunez has just taken that Incredibly important tradition and trashed it and he has act like the pr man For the white house and and working, by the way, not even as i guess a a really low. Grade Pr man i mean that He's pretty much a backbencher before this, yeah but you not is this document. That his, group come, you know, that i Keep saying that i think given the development of this country and the advances in wealth and knowledge that you would expect handcrafted artisanal collusion of justice and instead you're getting, like, this twinkie collusion of justice And the other republicans on the committee have said, what about this Some of them have liked some of them have sort of looked the other way Like devin noonas yeah i think i met him once in a bus station on the committee but They, also voted to to release this mouse Yes but they're, not going out there they're Not that you're not hearing from them that devin newness is allowing so itself to be made of a face because i think many members recognize there are there are risks and What you? also have to what they have to wonder about is should the republicans lose the house at the house that there may be serious you know Consequences for those members, who? Who took part in this but, we are now, going to see something that, we? What the democrats in the committee now are going to feel obliged to do is to release their Own answer and so a committee whose premise, was always that all of all of its work, was done behind closed doors they preserve solidarity that By, the way that they could be trusted you know One that this is one of the my themes of the of this book one of the things we're talking Is even if we get through all of this? In more or less, okay, form there are real prices to be paid Along, the way that will not be so easy to repair and this story, about the Men was one of them? The committee the intelligence committees in the house and senate the people were set up to check the excessive these agencies rely to a Huge extent on the voluntary cooperation of those agencies those agents have tremendous ease of tremendous secrets and if they want to hide from congress they can probably do it But there has been a tradition that they share because they are Stronger and more politically legitimate when they have the approval of congress as, well as of the executive so if you're an Fbi director or an fbi agent a cia, director and a cia agent and you see somebody, like devin nunez taking your work Rat rifling through it for the crassus kind of political purposes grossly Misrepresenting it and also maybe burning, some of your operations Burning meaning giving, them up, yeah giving them up and you know, we don't know i mean obviously carter page Cannot be an important per in any investigation The, fbi came, across him in the course of investigating other things that seemed more serious, we don't know i mean they're people in the fbi, who may or may be Say you know in the Incidental things that newness is betraying, as he pursues are giving, away Important information and other investigations in which carta page was an incidental figure that's, why You're! Supposed to keep your mouth shut because Members of congress are amateurs in these areas and they do not always understand every aspect of every secret they, see so as you, say the book this is Trump is a manifestation of the problems facing, the party the republican party and the country But there have been many enablers, well on the way and pre-existing conditions And we'll get to some of those in a second but mitch mcconnell paul ryan, you know the leadership of the republican party why, is it They, have been attacked. By donald trump from time to time on twitter and elsewhere as his lindsey graham and Pretty much everybody, he ran against in the primary so and yet you they seem to be falling in line fairly Well and fairly quietly, and i'm wondering, is that because they're, what afraid of becoming His target, again, because they're afraid of you know The base trump's base turning on them, and what's going on there all of all of the above? Paul ryan is a person with a very aggressive agenda for the country and it's a it's an Agenda, that happens to be not tremendously popular So it's not something that you can just rely on People sending in their cards and letters from the country demanding the passage of his laws he wants to do things that probably a majority Of the country does not want like cutting entitlements. Like cutting entitlements. Like, this this tax bill you know, the Even the parts of it that are sensible the on the corporate side Obviously i'm not going to excite a lot of people with Because the benefits are very long-term and meanwhile on the personal side it's pretty crassly a redistribution from the Blue state affluent. Professionals to red state considered to red state constituencies and the True plutocratic elite of the country so you're not gonna get you're not gonna Be able to compel a president to sign it whether he wants to or not this is something that you need a President, who isn't thinking that hard, about his, own reelection because we're thinking that clearly, about his, own reelection To sign and so there's a pact but i think what, also What they have said is you know this man will sign our bills, we have to protect him because otherwise We won't pass our laws but, mike pence would do that to my pence will? Do that too but mike pence isn't there but there's a, along the way something, and that's not an options, the only? Way you get to mike pence is by actually doing something pretty radical, which is? Once donald trump has won the nomination When the presidency going up against and then you bump into that donald trump understood the republican Base better than paul ryan mitch mcconnell and something else and this is Now there are a lot of books out About trump at the same time and they all should be read and there's a lot, something to be learned from all of them And i of course, was fascinated by the michael wolf book read it attentively but Forget siri he gets one important thing Wrong, not just as an error of fact but it's a real error of judgment and it's dangerous And that is the presentation of donald trump as an imbecilic dotard? That's a big mistake and a really Honest mistake in fact that i mean yes for all the parts of the job that the president is supposed to do trump is very? Disengaged but for the things the president is not supposed to do He's very wily and energetic and he has the most ferocious will to power of any president certainly in my Adult lifetime and so people go up against him thinking because they know More or understand bureaucracy, better that they will win and they discover there, is he's just got a desire for dominance That imposes itself on weaker spills yeah i was talking last week to jackie speier, bay Area congresswoman democrat who's on the house intelligence committee and you know we were talking about the robert muller investigation and she said that she thinks that what trump is really concerned most about is That muller is going to dig in or will dig in too far into his real estate holdings and the connections with russian guards Who, have purchased property and condos and other things What do you, what do you make of the investigation and and i realized that's not really the basis of your book And but i'm just wondering lee, because it's all tied together in some ways what what what, is he really worried? About it what should, he be worried about and therefore what should? we be worried about i have a chapter on his past financial dealings and There and since the book, was finished there have been some more details on some of the sections but. They're. They're startling that the the flows of money from russian individuals through numbered companies into his condo business Normally, americans do not typically buy real, estate through shell companies and they especially do not buy Florida, real estate through shell shell companies, because florida, has the homestead act so if you go if you owned a property in your own name in florida you can even if you go bankrupt that property cannot be attached so long as it's personally owned So you know if you people tend to buy, big houses in florida as financial, assets knowing, that they are protected you know against Bankruptcy, proceedings you, buy it through a, shell company and you lose that advantage So, why Would so when you see that donald trump is selling now? Something like a third of all the properties in florida two numbered companies that makes you wonder and usa today has Some done some very good work on tracking this down but the financial implications go beyond just russia right now i don't there trump towers in manila, there trump towers in istanbul there's a trump tower rising in buenos aires there are four trump towers in India, and other dubai in all of these places on a trump, was not the developer he, is licensed his name to a Local partner, who pays him a fee we don't know. That's a dollar fee or a? Percentage fee we don't know, what their incentive bonuses in it we don't know. How Much it is whether we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars or millions or tens of millions, we we don't know? What percentage of donald trump's income? These flows represent is it a small part a medium part a big part a dominant part and but, what, we do know Is that the governments in those countries have, tremendous pressure power over donald trump's business partners, who in turn have Some sway with him his business partner the philippines was appointed By, the filipino government special envoy to washington to make sure that filipino Interests were well attended to by the president the united states and i bet they are, well? And all the time he spends down in mar-a-lago i mean that enhances the value of course Which is not illegal but all these things to our? Lago, does not take you into muller territory, whereas these other things do because there are just there are just there's an an ocean of Potential problem conflicts and trump has always through, his business career through its ups and downs Trump has always been very concerned to keep law, enforcement under his to make special deals with, local politicians local law Enforcement. He has never understood or accepted that law Should be independent of him he, was always insisted on controlling it and that's the attitude he's going to take with, melo you know One of the things you write in the book is a quote here there is no hypocrisy, about donald trump point Is that you know He's basically doing, what he said he was going to do yes and i want to just ask You, about that a little bit because you know A lot of what he said during the campaign, was i'm for the little guy, the little guy, has been screwed By the swamp in washington i'm gonna drain the swamp I'm going to you know, put this cut, the trade policy back on track to help blue-collar workers but at the same time the tax policy is clearly tilted toward the wealthy He's undoing, obama era protections on things like student loans and payday lending he's sort of Destabilizing the healthcare markets so, is that is none of that hypocrisy i would, say none of that is hypocrisy lies? Or i would say look if you're if you're relying on guarantees or assurances from donald trump you know. Join the queue of disillusioned people including the ex-wives the former business partners the credit obviously No, any guarantee or promise from donald trump is worthless But what i meant when i said there's no hypocrisy? i think that section the book i was recalling a question of sport a larry clinton in one of the debates Where she was asked if she could Say something positive about donald trump and and and they'd obviously wargame this as the hillary campaign war gamed everything maybe even a little bit today and See so she said he's raised, good kids so i don't think that's. A. View that very many people would take today But so i my, answer i said i can come up with And someone and that is the part because, what i meant to say there is and and? This is especially for our evangelical friends and neighbors? Your unnotice donald trump never pretended to be a. Good, father he never pretended to be a good Husband he never pretended to be a kind man he never pretended to be men until the very end a man of faith He never pretended to be a charitable person and he never pretended to be a decent kind human being he's made it clear he despises That he he could not have been more i mean he would literally end his rallies by quoting a parable whose punchline, was you knew i was a snake, when you took me in So you have, no excuse for being fooled when you say you can't say you weren't forewarned and I'm wondering i mean certainly elites people, who read the new. York times people, who read the atlantic. People, who read the huffington post You know you could, say they were forewarned but we're you know. The average working-class folks the blue-collar people in Wisconsin, and michigan and pennsylvania were they really for warrant but and who like from, who fox news didn't warn them No, we because this is just our human sense? To, understand whether donald trump was a successful or unsuccessful businessman in his previous career i mean how can anybody figure that out for themselves and you have to rely on information and fairly detailed information i understand there a lot of people i Can, well understand why, many people had the impression he was good at business when, he wasn't i could, well understand why? Many, people didn't understand that he had a record of breaking his promises but We are as animals just equipped with a knowledge of who is cruel and who is kind that is something, we all? We have evolved to see a story i don't tell in the book I'd forgot it just it seemed too trivial but it's actually one that sort of sticks with, me is Donald trump has a youngest son Who i think is now 11 Who with whom from whom he's very distant to, whom he promised that if he were Elected president and they left new. York and came to wash and you see he would buy the boy a dog Which the boy desperately wants and there's a story in the washington post with a friend of donald trump's a wealthy woman who I, did the dog that the boy really really wanted and the boy met the woman and the woman offered the boy the dog And donald trump Promised in front of this witness, that he, would if that when they got to watching you would buy the son a dog And he broke that promise hmm, that's not to be cruel or what like, what, was it the point, is that's not on the Top500 of donald trump's moral offenses but, but it's something, we all know, we all can tell? Which father will on if he makes us on a promise to get a dog, we'll do it and who are the fathers Who, won't, we that we know rock obama kept his promise as i recall. Yeah i'll, make euler promise not a dog lover obviously You, say that you you held, your nose and voted for hillary clinton in the last presidential election so I'm wondering i i don't usually live in dc yes even in dc you have a you have a if you have a car, you Eleanor holmes norton or so you have a democrat representing you but you know are you Would you hold would you hold your nose again or will you in in from the fall and and vote for Democrats i mean would you give them, what you write about in the book, do you, want democrats to take control of the house and or the senate so let, me i Mean i i don't know, how interesting my behaviors are at anybody but But no i mean this year because i think it just goes to how deep is the conviction like, okay but so here's what if i were a resident of the state of california i'm not an expert on california politics but i imagine i would be voting for Republican candidates for the state assembly in state senate and governor i mean generally that's, my philosophy but how. Government should work I i mean the hillary clinton vote was i mean a difficult one because i a Lot of the ethical concerns about donald trump i mean they're Not as extreme in the hillary clinton case that they were there and i when i said i hold my? No, time literally what happened was i was away from dc on voting day so i got an absentee ballot And left dc i mean how much your vote in dc which was what? 92% democratic it's it's not so important but i Always, take part and i filled out the form and it sat in the outbox of my, mail that for about five days Before i put it because that, was that it wasn't literally it was actually sort of like that But uh if you're, the Immediate way to check the best immediate way to check is to get some gavels into democratic hands yes i understand that and That's really important So we're gonna come are you pulling for the democrats to win either or both I-i-i-i, well obviously it would be this country, would be in much safer if adam schiff were chair of the house intelligence committee But it comes at a cost because a lot of and this is one of the themes of there's a lot of things a lot of thing i Do that a lot of things are gonna happen if that should things that i don't like and i think one of the? challenges and tests of these trump years is We have to learn to separate our? Political and constitutional commitments and so since this seems to be a predominantly democratic crowd Let me give you, let me give you a hard teaching here for you, because one of the things i hear a lot about Members of congress, like john mccain or jeff flake Is they will raise their voices against, some trunkman views and then somebody said Well that's no good because you voted for the corporate income tax cut, well of course they, did they're republicans of course They voted for the corporate income tax cut. And the way i would think about this is imagine this One of the big arguments the book, is that these anti-democratic tendencies are True across the developed world and they come from deep places and not from only from specifically american sources but From things that are and i we can talk, about that but just take My word for it for now this is a global or a developed world phenomenon and in many countries Trumpism has shown up not in the former party of the right but in the former party of the left in italy It's trump the trump is candidate is on the left in england jeremy corbyn. You know in in some of the small countries of Southeastern europe in for we're communist parties you've seen these Now imagine in the united states i think that would have been less likely to happen but i can, create a scenario Of where it did now, imagine that that, some jeremy corbyn, figure had, had somehow Bounced his way into the presidency and was surrounded? By, people were literal stalinists and was a literal apologist for hamas and hezbollah and there are democratic members of the house and senate Who stood up to that person and? Stood up for the fbi and the cia and stood up against hamas and hezbollah and said you shouldn't have literal stalinist advising you Would it be fair for people like, me than saying but. You don't agree with, me on school choice you know Unless you, agree with, me on school choice i'm not interested in what you have to say, about jeremy corbyn And that that's the way i feel when i hear people criticizing, jeff flake, jeff flake is a very economically conservative Person, and that's why, he's it's a that's, why it's all the more impressive that he has Done what he has done but coming back to my, question you said the country Would be better off with adam schiff as chair, but that can only happen of course if the house, is taken back By the house is it would the country be better off with democrats in charge of either the house And/or the senate yeah i think the country will be better off with democrats in control of one house than two. Because two begins to get expensive -, who Said taxpayers businesses people and productive enterprise i mean there are near california, and that tax bill is gonna cost you a lot of money Well that that was that that, is that was squalid i mean the individual part of it is squalid and? and there's a certain, degradation of Traditional republican believe they stuffed a lot of just in a red state revenge into that bill that said That said in the context of true tax reform i think there's a i don't think that those? Deductions are coming back because in the context of true tax reform They are they Don't make the housing to the mortgage interest deduction And the state and local deduction and genuinely do not make a lot of sense and that's, why, people have you know thought About them the the problem is when you? when you put all the cost of reform on your opponent states and None of the cost of reform on your own states and in fact use the proceeds of reform I think you know the i think one of the obvious things you would say is well the economies of the red states are much More carbon intense than those of the blue states so you, would balance the take Away of the state nor the curtailing the state and local deduction with a carbon tax to say, okay the red states, also have to Pay the cost of running the government and the united states is down its way to trillion-dollar or nearly trillion-dollar deficits In peacetime in prosperity i mean george, w bush i think ran seven hundred billion dollar deficits as he Was fighting two wars barack obama ran eight hundred billion dollar deficits in the throws of the worst downturn since the great depression there's no there's no excuse for this and We are going to have to rectify the finances of the united states Everybody's gonna have to kick in and that's going to mean that the red, states can't ride for free So when you think about i mean this book is obviously aimed at trump and trumpism But in many ways you it's hard i mean the republican party is now the party of trump in many ways And so i'm just wondering setting aside The lies the tweets you know the attacks on law enforcement and the fbi and the cia, setting the head aside Trump's done a lot of things and and and you know. The Not all passing legislation but a lot of things so of the things he's done And with congress which ones, do you support I think it makes sense to move the embassy to jerusalem i think this is a good year to do it because This is a time when historically the united states has hesitated to do that because of his concerns above all for the Relationships with, sunni, arab states in the gulf, and there this is one would have a real Friendship between israel and all but undeclared alliance i think that that's a Good, thing as i think the corporate side of the tax reform has a lot of merit to it It's very imperfect. You would want to see brace, base broadening and you'd want it and this pass-through Arrangement, is it's just an outrage it's just a giveaway? And i think that they're selective elements of the deregulatory things they've done that are but It's this is a kind of a wrong path because my book Is about constitutional and not political commitments and i would say and there are a lot of things i would like to see done But there are things there are things i would not do to get those things done i mean i'm supposing there were a tax build that i 100% approved of i loved every detail i Still would not be in favor of kidnapping the children of the minority leader of the us senate and holding them to ransom until he Agreed to go? along With the measure i mean there are things you just don't do in in a democratic state and I think with a lot of a lot of the Even the good parts i minded and many people will know This, joke in this room of the story of the plotkin diamond the familiar joke In the days when women sat under the hair dryer two Women are sitting under the hairdryer one notices on the ring finger of the other an amazingly beautiful diamond ring and It's so starkly startling she just can't help, herself she has to what is that ring you're wearing and the woman the Wear of the ring says it is indeed a a beautiful ring in fact it's a very famous stone as a legendary stone it's been It's been worn by count members they are stock recei nieces of popes queens in europe and This, storied ring even has a name this is this is a the plotkin done the plotkin diamond how Amazing, yeah yeah, they said it's got a long history, but, like, many legendary stones the plotkin diamond comes with a, terrible curse a Curse how, romantic, what is the curse the curse of the clock in diamond is mr. Parker I'm not sure where to go with, that coming back to this idea of? I know in some ways i guess the point of my earlier question Was that attacking trump is sort of the low-hanging fruit you know it's easy Because of the outrageous, things he does a practically hourly, basis, and what's a little harder than that is to? Untangle trump trump ism from the republican policies and and so i'm just trying to figure that you have to widen the aperture Much more than that and let Me give you the single most alarming the book is full of studies and data points the single most alarming data point in the whole Book, is this a German political scientist named yasha, monk it was now at harvard and we'll have an excellent book of his own coming out in april Got a big grant to do research across more than a dozen developed countries And he asked this question is it essential to live in a democratic state Among, those people, born in the 1930s, about 90% said it is essential He then, went a spy decades of age and with Each day in decade of age a number who said it was essential declined until you reach people Who, were born after 1980 and across the developed world about 25% of people Born after none said it was essential and just to make sure that he that they weren't Miss hearing the question or interpreted he followed up with questions like Well would would you consider it would it be better to have military rule and Obviously there's a small minority but a significant minority of people under third he said, yes they'd prefer a military rule and if you Ask, the question, what about having a, strong man who can cut Through, then you began to get quite considerable numbers and this is true in the united states in germany in canada and sweden and it's the figures are actually higher in places like canada, and sweden than they are even in the united states so, we have i Think, with all when We think about donald trump one of the things i argue against much of the analysis is when you have a Problem that is bigger than america? You can't have an america specific Explanation, we are living through a, global crisis of democracy, we are seeing the rise of trump like parties across the world And trump like figures the united The united sates, we would have thought, was more resistant and it's true there's a little bit of a lucky Bounce that broad crumple i figured to power here but a trump-like party, has the second most seats in the parliament of the netherlands The national front in france doubled its, vote share between 2002 and 2017. You have a far-right party in the German, bundestag for the first time since the last time i far-right party, had power in the german. Bundestag That's not good and? We have a, we have we have, we have actual parties like, this actually in power in poland hungary Another place so you're saying even if trump hadn't gotten elected that this phenomenon will be happening across that We we need to understand something something is going wrong in Democratic life and sometimes it shows itself in different countries in the party of the right and sometimes in the party of the left let Me say one more thing about party competition because mercifully, we are Americans are living longer and long or at least those Who are educated affluent are living longer and staying active longer and longer But the price of that is we have important important parts of our citizenry are carrying around political ideas From 20 and 30 years before and applying it to a. Country that has changed For much of the post-war period every democracy had a party of the right in the party of the left And some most but they, did have one big one and the party of the right, was the party of The party the leftist party of people work for wages people, who had more debts than assets people worked in the public Sector the party of the right, was the party the opposite people, who work for salaries or dividends people, who Had more assets than debts people, who worked in the private sector True german, christian democrats british conservatives australian, liberals canadian progressive conservatives american republicans it was the same now Today, we see around the world that that is no longer how? You predict? How. People vote there that what predicts, how People voted is whether your grant the voters grandparents belong to the local ethnic. Majority or when they belonged not to the local ethnic majority, and Beyond that then they can have any kind of almost any man you have democrat you have democrats now in the united states who have Views that are indistinguishable from the economic views of a reagan-era republican but They, had different have the wrong grandparents you know would ronald reagan recognize this republican party He would recognize it has a family what you do is you take certain aspects of his party and you exaggerate them and you take other aspects of his party and Eliminate them and yes there's a family resemblance in the way that you know Particularly disappointing great grandchild has a family resemblance but But the but you know as you said earlier Having a president or maybe i heard you earlier on the radio forgive, me if that's what it was The notion that, we have a president, who? maybe Inclusion you know, some way with russia That what there, was no part of the republican party that believed that or would have accepted that when ronald reagan was around Well there was no there, was no part of any party i mean that i One reason i date the beginning of the to the decline in our institutions i dated very intensely from the beginning of the century and the ill feeling, over the bush v Gore supreme court decision i think this i would really start the story at the end of the cold War because the discipline of the cold war bound the part they're just things so long as the country faced a truly existential foreign threat There are things you didn't do i mean in 1988 if any politician were found of had corrupt dealings with the soviet union it would have been i just say it would have been it's unthinkable it woulda been explosive it would have an explosive thing the country No, longer feels it has that kind of existential threat from a, major geopolitical right is very afraid of the external world More frayed maybe than ever but, not there's not, some singular competitor that americans are afraid of as a military threat they Fear china as an economic rival they, fear russia's ability to make mischief they, fear terrorism from Originating in parts of the islamic world tampering with our democracy but, but, the Inhibition against working with a foreign power that has obviously changed And i mean i still find it obviously very shocking and it's the single most shocking thing about the whole election but that That is one of the things that that that is one of the? Norms that is weekend one one final point i make this this the point i make in the book, that the Founders of the country at the constitutional convention we're very worried About foreign sway over the president it was debated at the con is in madison's notes that Impeachment comes up twice with reference to the case of charles the second, was king of england a hundred years before the american revolution and he took drops from louis xiv of france and who Altered american it's our english foreign policy in order to keep the bribes and they had his Example in mind because they were creating a country that, was smaller weaker and poorer Than the other great powers that were present in this hemisphere spain france and england, no let's take Some audience questions here in order to get back on track to restore democratic norms and checks what Is the most important conversation, step needed to be taken in the 2018 election I think, we need to get i would say there two things We need, to get absolutely to the bottom of the foreign influence in the 2016 election, we need to have some agreed plans for how to prevent that from happening in 2020 it will happen in 2018, no one's on guard and why, wouldn't the russians do it again, and we need i Say this with, some sadness but, some things that, had always been understandings have to be formalized, them we're going to need A law, requiring the president to release his tax returns the vice president actually it should be the Major, party to the moment you accept secret service protection You should have to release your tax returns that seems that seems a, fair trade you you know. Taxpayers paying to your safety What would you where would where would you place the odds of a republican congress passing them? i i think it will pass Sometime in the next one or two administrations and i think by That point i think the republican party is going to be a very different i think it's going to go through a lot of pain And a lot of disgrace and i think what's going to come i think, we have a very different party, system in general actually Here's a way to think about this was in a room of people of some historical memory If imagine someone standing on a timeline with 1990 is the center year and they move 25, years to the right to 2015 and They, wake up under the rip van winkle dough's and say who's running for president and they told bush and clinton And what are they talking about iraq and healthcare What are people worried About the deficit nothing's changed The country's changed i mean there's no internet in 1990 china is a poor country in 1990 but the political system has been frozen Now you? Do the same thing going backwards 25 years from 1990 here in 1965 the cities are on fire the most powerful man in washington's the head of the afl-cio They're, you know southern segregationist democrats they're? Conservative their liberal republicans it's a different world i think what happened between 65 and 90 in a dynamic country Like this is normal and what happened between 1990 2015 in this country is aberrant and i think that the politics i think if you go ten Years from 2015 it's going to look It's going to be a very different kind of landscape and the parties are going to look much more different from their previous Selves than they've looked over the past quarter-century better or worse different They're, going to attract different kinds of constituencies and different in ways that are hard to predict i mean if the democratic Party continues to move as far to the economic left as it's moved in the past years i mean you May, see this idea that republic. There's remember i said there are a lot of economic conservatives whose grandparents we're not Part of the local ethnic Majority, who are the democratic Party, for that reason it may be that they leave anyway, and they put up with the thing the you know Bad manners from the republicans because at least the republicans will you know are not going to Impose a wealth tax on them yeah that you can i don't know i thought of it depends on how We handles one last thing with that i'm very much not in the prediction business and not just because i predicted that hillary clinton would Win the election Because making predictions requires you to think like it requires you to believe that the future is fixed and This is a moment in the future is more plastic and depends more on? Good or bad decisions that individuals make than at. Any point i can remember so don't make predictions, make the future You mentioned the carbon tax earlier and we're talking, about the tax bill and of course president obama signed the paris accords oh? Trump is cribbing critical of those, wants to pull out of those May, have already pulled out of those eyes he's just, yeah he's Also undoing a lot of the regulations he's think the tax bill removes tax credits for green energy All kinds of things that many people, who believe in data and science would say are taking the country in the wrong direction Why, what's your speculation, about, why? Assuming i mean there's a lot of climate change deniers and there's some who just vote for various things for some reason or another their Donors want them to i don't know, what your position is on climate change but You could, argue that that is an existential threat not just to the united states yeah, but to the world and so what you know, these private conversations that republicans have over martinis or whatever What how, do they, what do they think, about that future, well they, that's remember the International climate negotiation process began under president, george, hw Bush, the first important round of conversations took place on the subject Occurred in during the bush administration the first, world leader to speak seriously About this, issue, was margaret thatcher back in the nineteen middle 1980s so The climate change issue is an example of how Issue one of the ways the american political system goes wrong which is you take issues that are Outside the historic thing that parties are arguing, about and that they become seized as shibboleths by one party or another and they become party touchdowns and And then and then they become a way of organizing the party, system even though they Don't have to be and there's often a lot of randomness, about that there's often a lot of corruption that somebody Who has an interest in this issue Will pay a certain number of decisive actors not members of congress but people just outside, and they then inscribe this element into party dogma and their democratic versions of this as, well and So the problem is not just that the that, we tend to? ignore facts democrats have their, own versions of that But that we live in a system of what a? Political scientist is aptly called a system of weak parties but, strong. Partisanship So that people let, their party feelings dictate Their beliefs about a lot of issues that have nothing to do with party politics But but again I mean though there are consequences for those things you know i mean we're here now in california The wildfire season is pretty much year round yeah the floods wildfires You know there's all kinds of weird weather going on? so there are concepts i mean So i'm a real consequence so i mean aside from it goes beyond partisanship right i mean it affects. People's lives yeah, it's a subject i worry about a lot and i Worry, especially after is that they're a, couple, they're two Books one on the 17th century one on the end of the roman empire that that, deal with these climate issues that both Make, their, own this point that The most important and most alarming question, about climate change is not is it man-made but, does it happen faster slow And one of the one of the most of the climate models, assume that what happens is you have a, gradual path and What has actually happened in past periods when the world's climate now, both these cases for natural reasons In the 1590s in the world got suddenly dramatically colder and so it did in the five 40s and in both those you had huge Civilizational consequences just because the change happened faster then the societies of the time could cope And we have more resilience because we're more technologically advanced we also a lot? More people on this planet and many of them in very marginal situations So yes this, is the press and to have a president, who doesn't think seriously About things is a problem it's a problem for our foreign policy but it's Not just the president i mean you know. The whole war on coal we've been hearing, about that for eight years ten years The war next ten, years the war on coal is very driven By, regional, politics it's worth keeping in mind that the entire coal industry, not the miners but, ever the bookkeepers Everybody, the the total employment of the coal industry is less than the total number of registered yoga instructors in the united states but They're, very important in the upper midwest And so it's kind of like an ethanol in in reverse My, favorite phrase from the president's state of the union speech was clean beautiful coal But, also to remember there and this is one of the things, is that's donald trump trump, mean he just Also has this habit of if i know That large numbers of people that i don't like care About something i'm just gonna go break it and not because i cared about that thing myself ten minutes ago i just like to break things that people care of it i like to hurt people and You know that you'll remember that exchange he, had with andrew. Mccabe where He said that they, oh, by the way how, does it feel that your wife is such a political loser he did that That's just that desire to give pain, gratuitously it's such an important part of his personality doctor think he'll get his id i don't I'm not so worried about Iii have bigger fish to fry i i don't know, and also i think one of the things? about bad people is They're, also always pathetic. People and when they When and if and i'm not making any comment, about the president but wondering if in general when Bad people get their comeuppance it's always, sad to see and that's one of the reasons it's important just to keep them Away, from power because what you're you what you don't, want to do is have like you know If we all got our deserts who, among us would escape whipping as shakespeare you know, we're all very flawed What you, want to do, is make sure the people in power are the Conscientious people with, a view to history and they're bounded, by, systems because even the best people will abuse power Alright let's take, some more questions from the audience you folks have a lot of questions By the way it's good what role do you think fox and the far-right Media and far-right evangelicals play in conditioning the gop, base to trump rc. Uh Media systems have been tremendously important i talk a lot, about that Donald trump began, along the way donald trump broke fox and they began By treating him as kind of a Joker they, let played him for ratings but at the first debate you'll remember they sent up their three most Professional journalists chris wallace megyn, kelly, and bret baier to ask Donald trump very tough questions you read the transcripts those are tough tough embarrassing questions And he went wild with rage concentrated His, way rage on the, woman, is he has characters, who, do although wallace's and bears questions were just as searching as making kelly's and Fox discovered with the republican party discovered which, is that their, base like Donald trump better than it like their talent and he brought them to heel i mean that And that's as i said when you do not underestimate his will to power don't let michael wolf mislead you about that All right here's another question, but but i'm gonna, skip the first part of that question Has anything changed or evolved with regards to your conservatism more compassion, any more liberal thoughts she said hopefully in parentheses i I don't think you should, assume you know there's a lot of research on how Conservatives this, is pre trump give more money to charity than liberals do i don't think you should, assume that they, also have more money No, they're, more religious and more religious that's the deputy's liberties liberals are more educated know the it's it's religious affiliation that makes the difference So, iii just don't think that one should pat oneself on the back so hard so yeah and i have i changed My mind about a lot of issues over my lifetime and i've tried for those Who are just to give accountings for it when i have and i've written About it on my website if you care there's a button called second thoughts Where you can read but there we've got about a dozen issue Collected essays, where i've written, about things i've changed, my mind about But what i think is more to the the thing that i am more conscious of is? That the world changes i mean you'd better change your views, about things, because they Keep changing the exam questions and if you give the same answers You're, going to be worse that you're just going to be irrelevant not, gonna be able to be of any use to anybody All right another question, what advice can You, offer for never trump republicans Who are swimming against the tide of their party and who want the gop to return to conservative first principles keep the faith your party needs you and First remember, why? You are a conservative and a republican and and second remember this that it's no good at all for a Political system to have one party that accepts democratic norms and one that isn't so sure you need to And people who are committed to democratic norms arm should, go Where they are most needed and where they're most needed is inside the republican party You, think i get emails from john kasich not personal emails but you know. His organization Several times a week, is letting me know, what he's up to thanks appreciate that governor What what is he up to and do you think there's a chance that a republican such as john kasich will challenge Donald trump if he's in fact running for he's obviously contemplating a primary challenge i don't think To term governors of states launch themselves into quixotic Adventure so i think he's, also taking the temperature on whether it would go somewhere i think mitt romney, who looks like He will run for what maybe an open senate seat is getting ready to you know i think We will see some of these voices these, voices jeff flake, jeff flake, and whatever he doesn't he, may be at 20:20 Primary, challenger i think you people will be heard from at. This point they're all exploring mm-hmm yeah All right let's see crisis time for our democracy are you do you see a role for all living Ex-presidents to speak out as a bipartisan, body we've seen, we saw that extraordinary, day a few months ago with both W and obama speaking on the same, day i'm sure that wasn't a coincidence not a coincidence so Jimmy carter and george. Hw. Bush are i mean jimmy carter is in great health george, w bush, was in bad health but They're, both obviously You know in the in the late later phases of life, for the three presidents, who may, be with us for a. While I am putting a commercial for it's an interesting thing that the that the bush-clinton relationship is extremely cordial They, say that it's actually it's truly friendly they're, their two friends and the bush-obama Relationship is extremely cordial with w or with, w i'm sorry i talked, about the three younger presidents The clinton obama relationship is more complicated And so who's that on? All complicated a phase iii one of the thing one of the themes i think there's i'm not a Bit i'm not i'm not hugely interested in questions like, whose fault is it or who's right? Because especially i mean it's, both it's that That you just it's just a fact you have to integrate into your into your thinking so Georgia insured george w bush, bush's role here is especially crucial because he, is the he is the pivot the intermediary the person Who can, actually Say to clinton and obama This is a time when three need to speak out i don't think either of those two could Ever have that kind of impact so the w there w bush and it's not possible it you know He may, not have played the last act in his political career yeah it is interesting how Former presidents i mean they are members of a very small club And they do seem to bond in some ways and it seems like that's yet another norm that donald trump is blowing up they also, they, also receive a redacted version of the president's daily intelligence briefing and So, while they, don't see quite what the presidencies That ex-presidents know a lot About the dangers the country faces and they retained deep relationships and i believe they all owned phones yeah you mentioned of course Your, old boss george w bush and it is interesting to hear so many democrats thinking about him nostalgically Not to mention reagan and nixon but You, you as, we said at the very beginning helped coin The phrase, axis of evil was at iran north korea and iraq i think we're the three That became part of the pretext for the war in iraq you have any regrets, about that i I've written about this a lot And it's a i have complicated feelings, about it because obviously the war was not a success Was it a mistake though could it have been, amiss it could have could it have been a success Could it have been a success This, way? Once you discover the the since the reason for the war, was to stop iraq from getting a nuclear weapon It could not have been a success because you would not be able to fulfill the stated purpose of the war But i believe that was a good faith mistake certainly on the part of president george w Bush he sincerely believed it i certainly believed it everyone i knew sincerely believed it Could it have been a success in that could, we if we'd sent if george w bush had said Okay, we're gonna send half a million, men from the very start we're. Gonna, make the kind of investment in iraq Then iraq might have, had more of a chance but the united states would never have Done that that if they've confronted with the true project i don't think the country would have agreed to do it So it began on him where there was a threat and then there was a false idea about how Easy, this would be and so it careened into failure On the other had to have to look back and say Well and this is a subject that obsesses mean my political thinking there's always the other door and you don't know What's down, that other door? down the other door is The unites states does not invade iraq The price of oil, goes up in 2005 saddam hussein, who is poor from 1995 to 2005 becomes very rich again What does he, do with that all of those oil from up to 1995 he's an incredibly aggressions regime is crumbling they, were not going to be sanctions on iraq for very much longer than the important sanctions were gone and The, whole arab middle east is in the throes of this malthusian. Crisis you know Populations doubling, no work water running out the climate changing in ways that are adverse, them like as in syria We have the three worst harvests in syrian history and the three of the five years before the syrian Civil war breaks out iraq's even drier than, syria What, was what's down? The other, door, we can, never know, um but i i don't i don't know that? We face i don't know that, we face some real the attractive options there one last thing, about it it wasn't like We were at peace with iraq, we were we had been at war with iraq non-stop since 1990, we had an armistice But the second biggest use of american airpower since the end of the cold war, is bill clinton's air campaign in iraq in 1998 Had al gore been elected i don't think you'd have seen american ground forces In iraq what you would have seen more rounds of aerial combat with iraq i mean i don't talk, about this much longer but the you know iraq was, also the major check on iran i Don't think that, was going to but iraq i think iraq, was heading on a path because Because the place i think the place was going to blow up one way or the other i don't know That it was only a check on iran so long as the saddam hussein regime not only held together but deployed real military power yeah All right let's see we've got time for a little maybe a couple more questions In today's atlantic there is a call to boycott the republican party, yeah i haven't read the article but What are your thoughts i've read there so the art is written by Two people jonathan roush and ben witness jonathan roush has been one of my closest friends since 1977 a nine seventy eight and then when it witness is a very good friend i So i read attentively, and with enormous respect. Everything. They, they, say i Think, the article would have benefited from the emission of some words because They, they, wrote the article not just about federal politics but also about state politics and While there have been i think that i write in the book i'm very concerned about the republican Despair leading many state republican parties to Engage in voter suppression i think the united states, also has i mean in its most dynamic most advanced Most important he said sucking up to the hometown crowd state you, would benefit from two-party politics in california and but i have to say whose i Know you, don't like, say whose fault is it but i mean it would you know? Yes i was mad about it who? Loses the republic it's not the republican party that is the loser from the absence of two-party competition in california it's the voter and tax payer in citizen of california the because what happens you don't have to party politics of course as you get factional politics and factional politics are almost always, less productive than two-party politics yeah, well yeah i Regret, we haven't? We didn't have, more time to talk about immigration because that's a, big part of all that Let's see maybe i can, slip in one or two more Has the republican party lost its sense of patriotism i Think, the republican party is a lot of people in a lot of places i i would Say, that obviously donald trump cares about nobody but himself. And that is true, about his family and they are willing to Pay a very very, high, moral price for the presidency confronting that They, have put a lot of republicans in a patriotic quandary, some people have very eagerly Jumped after donald trump, some people have been dragged, after him i don't want to impugn any large group of people but we it we need to re-establish The, strong, principle that it is absolutely unacceptable to work with A hostile foreign intelligence agency without being, by the way extremely Because it's obviously i mean it's obviously been true that america's friends have opinions, about america's elections i mean they're there that the french and germans gearheart i should speak of people i mean Get schroeder and chirac made no secret in 2004 they could not wait to see the back of george w bush benjamin netanyahu Obviously preferred mitt romney over obama in 2012 that's that's Inevitable and so long as this is done through non? Clandestine, means it's a normal part i mean actually you kind of want to know i appreciate knowing Which president is going to, do be more welcomed by america's friends yeah? i think that's that's useful information for me as a voter iii if they carry out a campaign of disinformation And corruption in american soil that's a different different matter but And that's what, is that is what is unique but i don't want to suggest that? It's inherently wrong for foreign governments especially our friends to make clear that they, have views of course they, have views Well we've reached, that point in our program We have last question i want to give you an opportunity to leave it on a Hopeful note and in fact i think the last chapter of your book, is titled hope Where do you find it Well let me start in this room that the level of civic engagement We have seen across the united states in the past year 2014 Is the lowest turnout election since 1942 when millions of american men were overseas? 2016 was an election conducted in a strong mood of looking for the lesser of two evils i Was really, worried, when donald trump took, office that what? We would seize it to 2017 would be a year of occupy wall street times a thousand Unproductive gesture politics aimed at speaking to tiny little factional segments of american life Flag-burning, carrying the mexican flag at demonstrations instead what, we have seen is people buying subscriptions to the, new? York, times the wall street the washington post to the atlantic our readership is up npr came to young people people seek understanding The danger of disinformation and responding it By seeking, by, not taking the i said Well i'll read you know there's a lot of liberal leaning and disinformation of them i know i'm gonna, go i'm gonna Go, to the source i want quality information about public Affairs that's tremendously hard me i find it heartening that so many people are so shocked, by the president's line And not just as big purposeful lives by his casual lies Mightiest truth and destined to prevail as the Is that old latin saying and i think a lot of americans are just asserting that for themselves i see encouragement in Are i willing 'no stoop a attention to a lot of issues that got short shrift in 2015 the drug epidemic what is happening to? The economic prospects of americans between the two wealthy coasts and even on the wealthy coast not everyone is doing so Well i mean that that tended to we tended to lose sight of that you know In some past moments that's at the center of the national conversation, again Where where it needs to be i think the discovery of so many american allies who have often Shaped an american world leadership that they like it less when america is at The discovery, among people on the political left, who would once have made heroes of the julian Assange's and the edward snowden's that you threats come, not only in the form of tanks and rockets but Also in clandestine forms and you need the fbi the cia, and the nsa to do their work and on the political right Among the trump dissenters to understand that a lot of the the casual cruelty that you know We on the writer to attempt to shrug off is just the way it is together they Add up to very large cruelties and they can enable very large and cruel Presence at the very center of american government all right Well i'd like to remind the audience that david will be down or maybe gets back there i guess so with his copies of his new, book trump ocker see they're available to buy he'd be happy to sign one i believe Our thanks to david fromm for joining us today at the commonwealth club And thank you to our? Travel partner united airlines for making this program happen i'm scott shafer and now this meeting of the commonwealth club of california The place, where you're in the know is adjourned?
