Hello everyone and welcome to today's virtual program at the commonwealth club, my name is quentin hardy I'm the head of editorial google cloud and i'll be moderating today's program This program is part of the commonwealth's club virtual series and we like to thank our members donors and supporters for making this And all our programs possible, we're grateful for their support and hope others will follow their example and support the club during these uncertain times Today i'm excited to be talking with david frum senior editor at the atlantic and author of the new book Trumpocalypse restoring american democracy. I think you'll agree the state of our nation could not be a more timely topic David comes to it with a well-defined point of view as a former speechwriter for george W bush and a popular political commentator. He has been one of the leading anti-tribe trump voices on the right in trump apocalypse He looks at many of the structural issues that undergird our present political impasse and offers a path forward in a post-donald trump. America Huge swaths of the country voted for donald trump and david argues that a post-trump country Will have to find a way either to reconcile these people to democracy Or protect democracy from them If you're watching along with us and have a question, you'd like me to ask david Please put it in the text chat on youtube and i'll be asking them later in the program. Excuse me on zoom David thank you for joining us the other day I was looking at the calendar and I realized the republican convention is about 12 weeks away Then I looked 12 weeks back and saw that the u.s. Unemployment rate back then was 4 And there had been 26 deaths from covet 19 12 weeks ago I realized I couldn't really confidently imagine the world 12 weeks from now Which brings me to my first question? What's it like to publish a book where everything's changing so quickly? Well, this has been an issue all through the trump years, um that we're like people moving through a wind tunnel with chairs and stools and Bar, um doors flying at our heads and that has been it's been a constant problem when I i've now written two of these books one at the beginning one at I expect the end of the trump presidency and in both cases, there were things at the very last minute so the challenge when you write it is To be current but also to talk about something deeper because You're going to publish the book at some time. And then there will be some astonishing event that will happen after publication date no matter what that is and although there was time in tranpocalypse to talk about the very severe onset of um the coronavirus and the and the lockdowns, of course, it was written before this spasm of Civil turmoil that we've had after the killing of uh in minneapolis of george floyd so You try and focus I think and what makes the book durable to me and successful overall. Is it focuses on various structural? and political weaknesses and also cultural weaknesses or a kind of cultural impasse we've reached And there's an awareness of the interplay between the politics and the culture That evolved to create this moment. I want to get into both of those but Let me begin by asking you what are the key elements that you explain the election of donald trump? In the first place back in 2016. right? I think that it's not hard to explain his election what is hard is to explain his nomination donald trump won election because of The unrepresentative quality of the american electoral system. Um, he got A little over 46 percent of the vote less than al gore less than john. Kerry less than mitt romney He got barely more than john mccain barely more than michael dukakis About 54 of the american public voted against donald trump and in any other democracy, that would have been enough to um condemn his chances He eked it out in the united states because of a series of of flukes Lucky breaks for him. Um, the fbi the russians things like that The thing that really has to be explained is the whole america the elaborate american political system the party system the primaries All of it is designed precisely to screen people like donald trump from getting close enough that it could be that they could benefit from the uh, unrepresentativeness of the american political system And so you have to ask what happened? What went wrong and the argument and I laid this out in a previous book trumpocracy is that basically After the and the bush presidency, um, that was it iraq was a trauma for the republican party the financial crisis was a trauma for the republican party and it responded to those things by veering off in an ideological direction not reconnecting with not using the time in opposition to reconnect with the country which is what a successful political party does but Chasing off after an ever more extreme ideology the tea party that pulled republican leaders not only away from the country but away from even their own voters and I wrote i've written a lot about this I wrote a lot about this in 2014 2015 That republican voters also were suffering loss of health insurance after the financial catastrophe. They were also feeling the stresses of mass immigration too much too fast They were also worried that too much wealth was concentrating at the very top and not enough was reaching the middle class And their party ignored all of those things. I had this joke and that the republican base was signaling We want more health care less immigration and no more bushes and the party offered them Less less health care more immigration and one more bush and donald trump stepped into that gap and then once he was the nominee of the republican party, of course the the Unfairness of the american electoral system and the russians and the fbi they put him over the top right, so in a sense You're portraying A world where it's a failure of cultural elites in a sense that what you call Trump's delusions of grandeur and his fantasies of revenge are enabled by the deficit-happy Short-term-minded media addicted culture that rewards the most privileging Privileged people in society while asking very little of them and chooses solipsistic yelling over thoughtful discourse Is that a fair diagnosis? You're putting your finger on something very important. And um Something i'm going to need to confess and not everyone's going to like what i'm about to say but my view of politics is it is very much driven by elites that it always has been and always will be And we need to understand what it means to to be a member of an elite It's not a question of moral superiority nor is it entirely a question of wealth that there are people who? Are positioned in ways that they have more? Clout in their society than others do and that is just inherent in the nature of human society and the test of a system Celebrities out nowadays. I mean there is a hierarchy of attention. Yes, right. It's just the way it is um, and uh Some people pay more attention to things and some people pay less some some more cultural power And in every kind of society that will always be true What has defined? Um? american society has made american society successful and and healthy has been first that uh American elites are close closer to most people than elites are in other kinds of societies. They are not a Hereditary aristocracy. They didn't used to have enormously more wealth than other people Um, they had uh, they uh, they knew that their children and grandchildren would not enjoy a permanently advantaged position uh that we rotated people in and out of that elite, um, you know, The great grandchildren of the founding fathers were not themselves. Um, Ruling the country in the 1850s and 1860s Uh, and and that and the other test was this was supposed to be public spirited and this was really true in the years after world war ii institutions like the commonwealth club itself reflect this the sense of you know, You had had some success in business and politics and the arts you owed something you had to give something back You couldn't just look out for yourself. Um And we lost uh, we developed an increasingly plutocratic hereditary out of touch Irresponsible and selfish elite and a lot of what has happened donald trump is sort of the punishment that our society got because of the failure of of those elites to Be more attentive to the country that benefited them so much Now as someone who wrote a book about the 70s, would you lay this on the boomers? No, I I wouldn't make such a genuine. I mean I think things happened in the 70s The the that that made it possible the thesis of my book on the 70s was that um I I was born in 1960 that the years from 1917 to About 1980 were a period where because of two world wars a cold war and a great depression. American society became developed a stronger state Greater equality and a stronger sense of nationhood than it had ever had before And that we could see from the point. I wrote that book in the 1990s and 2000s For and that it would have later that we sort of un we undid all this so the changes came. Um, I think because of basically because of peace because of the end the the uh, the end of the great wars the end of the cold war the end of uh, Tending toward the end of the cold war Um the end of the great depression and so we got this incredible concentration of wealth We got a return to greater diversity in the country We saw a weakening of the central state and that was both a good thing and a bad thing I don't think anybody wants to go back to the world of 1965 with one phone company and the government regulating checking accounts But we also lost something and the challenge and this is the thesis of trapocalypse is to find some way To restore that sense of nationhood and cohesion and mutual responsibility While still benefiting from having more than one phone company This is funny because it well not funny. It's Deeply resonant. Um But it's odd because while reading this I said to myself This sounds like the story of a great power that has grown so weak and uncertain about itself That the only thing it can believe in is its own power? right, but that the Trouble is and the danger is and this is one of the reasons the trump Presidency is so harmful is america's power in relative terms is fading That's just that's just a fact when I worked Um in the bush administration and that wasn't so long ago not even quite two decades ago The american economy was then approximately three times the size of the chinese economy and russia of course was no kind of major power And india was still barely beginning to get its act together as a great power great economy Today china is if it hasn't yet caught up to the united states Very soon it will uh india will probably do so soon after um, and russia is back in a mischief making way The united states cannot impose itself on the world the way it could after the cold war And I think donald trump's presidency is a little bit of a scream of rage against that donald trump's whole idea. I Talk you listen I give orders you all obey but he's doing this in a climate in which the united states needs friends needs partners more than ever before And he's alienated yes, and when you only believe in your own power, um You have a tendency to nostalgia and how great that power was make america great again project power It's not really projecting an ideology other countries can understand or Attach themselves to I have a section in trump apocalypse where I talk about. Um Donald trump's fourth of july speech that he delivered at the lincoln memorial. Uh, latin just last last summer. Um, He'd wanted a military parade and the military as is quite good at Finding ways to evade things that donald trump wanted it to do Um, he wanted to have a giant military parade down pennsylvania avenue like they have in paris The military didn't want to do it for a lot of reasons Expense, uh, it's burdensome on the troops. These are Well-paid professionals they have real work to do Um, this is sort of the equivalent of gary cohen taking memos off his desk only with tanks Right, right well and so, in fact, they ended up having two park tanks on either side of him and you know We were promised a parade We got two park tanks and then a fly past But the thing that was striking with that speech and I talked about it a lot in apocalypse Is it was a speech which donald trump talked about the america the power? Of the american military all the wars. It had won and never once referred to any of the ideals for which the united states had fought power worshiped power for its own sake and that has never Never been the american way the whole point Even america always justifies sometimes untruthfully By the way to be we have to face that but often enough truthfully that there is something more at stake here than just being bigger and stronger I mean the united united states Has fought wars to seize land and seize wealth from other people that's part of american history. But at least in the 20th century And and in the civil war it fought wars for something more and that's part of the story and he just couldn't reckon with that and it was the kind of imperial boasting that could fit in the mouth of any Warlord It was un-american and that's what he's doing. He's making this country on america and you know, I have my share of grievances with certain american wars, but it must also be put in the balance that the us military is possibly the world's largest humanitarian organization in terms of infrastructure building coming to the aid of certain people Um without the violence just as a certain ruling institution and none of that is in this this vision of american power No, there isn't there is little important message here. It is a a culture of fear just as you say and of course the uh, the fear comes from trump himself that I I talk I Try in both the two books not to get too much into donald trump's head. Um, I do a little bit Um, but i'm i'm interested These are books. I want to remain relevant after donald trump personally is gone But it is important to understand that as a person that donald trump Um is driven by fear and hate I say in trump apocalypse. He loves nobody and nobody loves him and I say in trump apocalypse and this is very relevant I think what we see in the streets of our cities now that the only the only thing he feels is Pain, and so the only thing he can give is pain. He cannot give comfort because he has not and uh, it is his um, it is his lack of those kinds of essentials that make him such a strange president every one of his predecessors everyone Had something outside of himself and someday herself to lean on Often the love of a wife often the love of their children. Um Uh many much of the time of faith in god, um certainly a sense of history and connection to the past maybe even the love of internalizing reversals Yes, or or even the love of a pet a dog or a horse or even a cat they had something you the idea of This completely solitary person. No one loves him and he loves nobody It's very transactional. It's Well, it's a man who's educated by roy cohen, i'll put it that way Yeah and look it's and even the transactions, you know, one of the things that transactional people learn especially when they get to be you know older than teenagers is that um your the transactions have a long lifetime if you ever acquire if you gain, an advantage in a transaction by lying to the other person or by Um cheating them They'll remember it and they'll tell other people about it and that will inhibit your ability to do future transactions I mean when we say honesty is the best policy Honesty is also a policy It's a good way to behave yourself because it's valuable to have that relation that reputation and so it is for countries and one of the things that you see and I talk about this a lot in trump apocalypse is one of the reasons That the united states finds itself now in such a dangerous position in the world is because he has given the united states a reputation for bad faith, you know, I think and I offer paths and trump into apocalypse Much of the harm that trump has done at home can with time and with money be repaired But the damage that trump has done to the united states in the world that will be much harder because america's friends partners enemies um and the skeptical world They know if you did this once they know it's now added in the list of things that are possible Things that people thought were impossible are now possible and if something is possible once it is possible twice well One of the Logical Truths of this is the rest of the world will look at us as a country that can elect a donald trump, right? We'll never get past that Right. I I had this acute feeling early in the trump. I mean I think about this A lot. I take this very much to heart. I remember on the night of the 2016 election. I was on a television program and and I was just You you there's nowhere where you know less about what is going on than when you're on tv you're sealed in a box And you're talking and only you know, only in the commercial breaks and you look at your phone and find out anything It's a quite a perverse way to to observe an election you're cut off from information while you're commenting on it Um, anyway, i'm very very late and um When I finally was able to call home. My wife was asleep. Um My older kids were at college. Um, but my I got my youngest girl on the phone, and I just I just I was so I said we failed you. We just I i'm so ashamed i'm so sorry I'm, so disappointed we we failed you and then soon after that we were on a trip to california We we went to see the reagan library in the simi valley And if you've ever done it, there's this winding drive up the hill and there are banners with images of all of the past presidents and Barack obama's image was there and you realized My god in in just a few months This is between election and august. Donald trump's image is going to be there. That's incredible How is that? How do we How do we fit this into our national story and of course we can't deny it because it's true It is also part of who americans are If we were to deny it, that would be part of the problem That'll be part of the problem, you know surfacing Unpleasant truths has been a major theme in On the streets right now And with that in mind i'd actually like to turn to a question from our audience What impact do you think the rioting and trump's response to it will have on the election in november Will his law and order characterization gain him votes to win in this climate Well, thank you for asking This is a question much on on people's minds clinton and I were talking about it just before the podcast. Um I Have written in the atlantic. I I do not Think the easy analogy to richard nixon in 1968 holds at all and for many many reasons, um First the obvious one richard nixon in 1968 was the challenger. Not the incumbent so if there was disorder that was the fault of the incumbent that richard nixon could say Look, there's disorder everywhere fire the people who brought you the disorder hire somebody else Donald trump is presiding over the disorder, but there's something there are more things that are going on than that next Forget the richard nixon that you know The richard nixon of watergate richard nixon of the tapes if you're an american voter in the summer of 1968 The way you knew richard nixon above all was as the former vice president of president dwight eisenhower the most popular living politician in the united states Um, he's still alive in 1968 and a person whose two terms were synonymous with peace order tranquility stability Nixon was in many ways in the joe biden position nixon's offer was I'm, the eisenhower guy, you've had all this excitement and drama with john. F kennedy then all this turbulence and War and rioting and civil commotion with lyndon. Johnson vote for me I'm bringing back the eisenhower era of tranquility and calm and you know that war we're fighting in vietnam right now Dwight eisenhower also inherited a war a frustrating war from his democratic president His democratic predecessor and he ended it within six months With honor, I think I can do the same thing and that seemed history speaking of history repeating itself to a voter That seemed like applause. Yeah, well, we want eisenhower back last thing We now with um Racial trauma so much on our mind when we think of riot. We think of disorder We think of the phrase law order we assume that nixon was talking entirely and exclusively about the urban riots of the 1960s watts in 65 and detroit in 67 and the other in newark and and so on But when you look at richard nixon's ads, I i've got a link to them in the article. I most wrote most recently there is not an a noticeably African-american face anywhere that I maybe there's one lurking far in the background of one of the shots But in all of his news footage everyone is non-black And they are students They are police and the ad is about student upheaval And what is really striking about the ads is the students aren't always the villains because in about half the frames what you see are clean-cut Young typically young men, uh covered with blood having been clubbed by mayor daley's police. Remember mayor daley, of course was A crucial political ally of both. John f kennedy and linda johnson so what nixon's law and order message was not only will I bring back social peace, but Look at this Mayor daley, look at what he's doing. He's the he's of them. He's on their side He's the one who clubbed your college student children, and I we don't like the radicals and hear pictures of them But here are the pictures of these other and the police are shown in very unflattering ways In the ad here, are these out of control police last thing? One difference 1968 was a three-way race. Not a two-way race nixon was endlessly triangulating not only against What he would portray as the excessive liberalism of hubert humphrey, but against the outspoken segregation of george wallace and lin nixon's speeches about law and order always balanced the importance of Order and the importance of justice he would say again. And again, he said it in his nomination acceptance. Speech There's no there's no order without just there's no justice without order, but there's also no order without justice We must respect the law But if we want the law to be but to respect the law the law must be worthy of respect He would say that over and over again contrasting himself with wallace. Trump is daily. Trump is wallace Trump is the incumbent the riots are hurting him and we can see that in the polls already okay, i'll take another question to the audience and Tweak it a little bit Uh, the question is will trump continue to be influential even if he does not win which I think is a comment on you know, whether the character of donald trump and the trump family if they lose but also Let me add to that. What do you think? Will be the enduring result of donald trump. This is not just a blip in judges alone He's had a profound impact and we have a heavy deficit good and bad. What will be the legacy here? so two questions Yeah, the two questions are the two questions are very very different and I think the second question is more exciting to me forgive me than than the first um as to the personal and enduring consequence for donald trump, uh I'm originally from canada and what um I attended college the united states and A professor friend of mine who's explaining the difference from the american and canadian character to me once said a very memorable thing So the thing to understand about the united states is americans love underdogs, but they hate losers and if donald trump Leaves he will be a loser and he's probably going to be quite a big loser He probably will take down the senate with him So I have pinned at the top of my twitter feed a slogan i've been using when this is all over Nobody will admit to ever having been for it So I think there will be people who will try to find some ways to rationalize donald trump But he's going to fade real fast, and he's going to have enormous legal problems after he leaves the presidency both federal and state And and his business is going to be a wreck And he's not going to be able to direct public money toward it anymore He's not going to be able to extract benefits from other foreign power. So he's going to be consumed with those problems So I think his post-presidential future if that's what happens in 2020 Is going to be preoccupied and grim and no Example but it is true that his legacy will be enduring and that we have um what he's shown us things about ourselves Many of them dark, but this is the thing. I really want to I really do believe this and this is the hopeful thing one of his legacies has been um, a reactivation of the american conscience in a way that um seems once would have seemed extremely unlikely, uh donald trump Without donald trump. I don't think there would have been a metoo movement because What and I don't want to say just speak about that movement but there so much of life is Is petty injustices That seem very large to the people who suffer those injustices, but that are easily rationalized by people on the other end It is easy as a man to shrug off many of the complaints that you hear about me You know rude remarks in the office or demeaning or not taking somebody seriously or you know? Asking them out a few one too many times and not in a way they like I mean how big a deal is that? Really and if you're a man, it's easy to say not such a big deal. Um or um, Or the police abuses that have triggered these uprisings I mean how many as you you know? the the number of people unarmed people killed by police of any race in the united states in a year is really Is is not that big I think it's a couple of dozen and it's oh and it's dramatically smaller than it used to be So if you're someone who's in no danger of suffering that you can say, it doesn't seem like such a big problem It doesn't seem and seems to be getting better So why should we make such a fuss over the few cases that that haven't been resolved? but donald trump and there's so many other examples I mean casual Attitudes of neglect or disrespect were the disabled. Um, donald trump took those things And he put him on a jumbotron Times a billion the president on his twitter feed every day And he made it so big and so present and so assertive you couldn't not see it And when you saw it you had to say, how do do you like it? How do you like it? you can't let's close your eyes and And people said many people said who'd never thought about it before I don't like it at all. I asked change And I think In a strange way, there's another dimension of that which is when it's on the drum jumbotron and you're experiencing This noise machine that the president appears to revel in um You're getting a sense of something that's at the heart of both the metoo and the racism uh, which is It's not so much the particular case it's waking up Every day inside that world as someone who might experience it. That's your american reality And there's a broader sense of that now and that it's happening under trump may not be entirely coincidental Look, I think one of the secrets of trump's appeal uh has been that for some people um typically men, uh, typically white men typically men about my age but not only but typically that group and typically those who are um, not Super advantaged but who have rather more advantages than most there's something powerfully emancipating about donald trump I mean he's being just the kind of jerk that you've always wanted to be and maybe that you are but you feel inhibited socially inhibited before donald trump and he's given you permission and that I think There are people find that emancipating and exciting and thrilling and at last last someone is saying it like it is Um, but when you say well, let's go back to the most really decadent thing. I've heard in this Conversation don't don't, you know people like that. Well you live on the west coast Maybe you don't I i'm sure I know people like that But you know their mom has raised them not to do that stuff I mean, it's a we all have the devil in us and that's as old as history, but You know people And i'm sure i'm sure many people watching us will know people who Like trump a lot and when you press them on what they like about him, that's what they like that. He's uninhibited He says it like it is and So the when you say what is the legacy the legacy is okay Right. That's how It is or has been does it have to be that way and we are going to have and I think what we have seen as a majority of american society and a pretty strong majority saying If that's the way it is, it has to change and now that this has been brought so forcefully to our attention I think We are poised and this is the second half of trump apocalypse on the age of one of those periodic moments of american Social moral cultural political reform. Um I think that may be a big theme of the 2020s and I offer In the book some paths as to what those reforms might look like that is the hinge and let's turn to that for a moment because You talk about some structural things that are very direct electoral college gerrymandering Things you'd like to see changed in the system Why don't you work through those for a couple of minutes and then we'll handicap their chances? okay, so I am very focused on the achievable the deliverable the realistically doable. Um I wrote the book assuming the democrats would probably win. Uh The presidency in 2020 and very possibly win the senate in 2020 I also wrote the book and I don't exactly say this. But under the shadow, I believe that a recession was coming. This is before Um coronavirus I thought it would be caused by trump's trade policies um, and so And the recent history that recessions when they come american Recessions in recent years have tended to be very hard to they last a long time which it takes a long time To get back to full employment. So It occurred to me that 2022 might be a bad year for the democrats because the recession probably will still be with us 2022 So you've got 24 months use them wisely. What can you do? So I don't talk about the electoral college because that's not feasible what I do talk but is Reforming the senate by getting rid of the filibuster which can be done in half an hour. Um, it just takes the willing to a senate majority that's because it's not You don't even need the signature of the presidents. The filibuster is a rule of the senate. It's not a law It's certainly not the constitution And it's been tampered with before get rid of it. It's already been got rid of for judicial appointments get rid of it um And although you'll hear people say well what happens when our side is out of power The fact is the only way senator has become so extremely lopsided The only hope that the american majority has for ever being allowed to govern itself Is say if you can get 50 senate seats, you get 51 you got to pass laws like it is in any other democratic body Uh, then once having done that the next step is statehood for the district of columbia Which takes a vote in the house a vote in the senate a signature by the president and that adds two senators who are likely to be urban, possibly democratic and probably people of color because this this is a uh, The district columbia will be have a slight majority of people of color over uh others um, I talk about the importance of developing a new voting rights act to replace the voting rights act that was Changed in 2013 the supreme court struck down not the whole of the voting rights act but important sections of it for reasons that by the way weren't crazy the supreme court said the sections of the voting right act that we are dealing with said A jurisdiction gets special voting scrutiny. Um according to its voting practices in the years before 1965 The supreme court said how is that a basis for special scrutiny under the voting rights act hawaii gets special scrutiny and wisconsin does not But why is a good actor uh, um in voting rules and wisconsin is the worst actor north the mason-dixon line So how does it make sense to have wisconsin get away with everything scot-free? So I talk about those in other Reforms of the political system to open the way then to some more challenging social and economic reforms that are also necessary If we are to as you said in the introduction either reconcile more of the country to democratic norms or minimize The anti-democratic minorities ability to do harm to democratic norms You're right to call me out you did not talk about changing the electoral college, but you do see it as a problem that you say rural america is disproportionately represented Yes that a lasting problem for the country and the culture um, it's a I I have a section in the book where I talk about the silent majority a phrase the president tweeted again this Morning and point out that American majorities tend not to be the majority that that was a phrase It was coined back when you could imagine that the suburbs and the small towns in rural America were united against the cities and they were the majority But the american majority today is urban Lives on the coasts, um and it and it is the country is governed by a self-congratulatory Minority I quote in in the book. Sarah palin's speech at the democrat. Sorry the republican convention in 2008 where she she had this Very eloquent tribute to small town. America god bless them I said Can you imagine a candidate at a democratic convention standing up and saying? We raise good people on the upper west side of manhattan and on the streets of west hollywood They're they're they're imaginative they're creative they're The mind reels you could never say that it would be people would be astonished the people of west hollywood and new york would be astonished like that's not how america talks but University campus here in berkeley are good people exactly And you know and and and look and we small town. America. We pay your bills. You're welcome But When you were speaking earlier Um, let's talk more about the the social change that has to take place. You were speaking that eventually um No one will have supported trump This is in in the future sort of the way. No one's granddad was in the clan, basically um, it's gonna feel like that but Is that really the case I mean today? lindsey graham is Investigating the russia investigation. We're looking forward to a summer of investigations of the bidens Yesterday I think 20 or 30 senators were asked what they thought of trump's photo opportunity and they all were on their way to lunch couldn't comment Do you really see people pulling away? Or is this something? of the mystery and charisma of politics that when it goes away everyone disavows you Let's just bookmark this and people can check In two years three years, it'll take about that long whether I was right or wrong, but here's what will happen um if trump loses and if he especially if he loses big And if the republicans especially if they lose the senate and suffer losses at the state level Uh, what you're going to hear is people saying look I was never for trump I mean, obviously he was a big spender. He was very liberal on a lot of issues I I never liked the deficits I was concerned I Just thought the media was so biased I wasn't For trump. I was against the I thought that people had trump derangement syndromes and were unfair by standing up against media bias Um, they will never say they will never acknowledge that you know, I thought he did a great job with handling covet I mean just notice in the past 10 days how quiet all of his normal supporters are um that the um The pro-trump the most noisy pro-trump talkers Are happiest not when they're talking about trump but when they're attacking the new york times or who or democratic or um or democratic women at that so We're going to be in a position where two years from now. It's going to be great because trump will be gone They don't have to defend the crazy things. He says and does and they can spend all their time um explaining how democratic uh how this democratic woman is a socialist and this one is uh scheming to take away your guns and that one is going to uh an antifa is going to come to your house and Steal your underwear and socks, um, and that they'll be perfect. They'll be so happy. They can go on attack uh I think one of the things we've seen in the trump years is Democrats like to govern and republicans like to complain and so we may be in Two years in a situation where both sides get their wish You're uh, you know, a lot of republicans in power. Um, How do they explain this and their participation in it? And how do they react to your ideas in trunkpocalypse? well I I think um I I have to tell the story carefully but um a friend of mine, uh Was put up for an important job by an important elected republican who was a political Pa as was my friend's political patron and uh my my friend said as my sort of the political patron said to my friend, um, you know, I'm putting you forward for this thing, and I think it's good for you I I and I would benefit from having you in this important job. Um, so I really hope you'll keep it take it my friend who was in the private life said well, i'm i'm honored and i'm excited but You have to understand. I mean i'll be in trouble at home But my wife just hates president trump and the power broker said your wife hates president trump Like he's not I mean there's a lot of You know when he goes down there are a lot of people who will be happy that he goes down. Um uh but how do they rationalize it people right people rationalize it my Atlanta colleague ann applebaum had a fantastic piece in the atlantic two days ago, but how do people rationalize it? Um, they rationalize it by saying it's so important that I be there i'm protecting the country from him They rationalize it by saying well, the democrats are worse That's that's the most common thing you hear is that you know, yeah, I don't like this thing I don't like that thing. But you know, do you really want um nancy pelosi deciding on taxes? You know, that would be intolerable Um, so there are series of coping mechanisms Right well Trillion dollar deficit that that now looks like that if we get the day we get back to a lousy trillion dollar deficit That's going to be a huge win, I wouldn't I think we're on the way to a 300 million dollars um Now In the other part of the republican establishment the lincoln project and the never trumpers Do you think that is being effective this process of is it more trolling or are they really pursuing something? Good and useful here so the people these these groups are in many cases friends of mine often very dear friends of mine and I really I salute their work and their courage and many of them have um taken real economic and personal, uh blows in order to do this work um And it's uh, you know, the position of a george conway is obviously not an enviable one My book is dedicated to the conservatives Libertarians and republicans of of never trump and I quote about them the words of an old methodist hymn When all were false I found the true, so I I salute them It's true as you say that for the first two years of the trump presidency that pro-trump republicans derided Anti-trump republicans and the joke that flourished in washington was uh, anti-trump never trump is not a political party. It's a dinner party But here's what happened in the election of 2018. Republicans lost their majority in the house of representatives biggest democratic uh congressional wins since watergate and the democrats won those seats not Um in liberal places because they already had those seats and they didn't win back Um some of the more hard scrabble, um parts of the party that had been democratic a generation ago They didn't win back rural kentucky where they won was precisely in affluent republican leaning suburbs They won districts like texas seven that was That's the district in river oaks houston. That was george h.w bush's district It was republican from 1966 to 2018 through watergate the iraq war everything saved republican. What democrat in 2018 The democrats in 2018 won what had been gingrich's district in affluent northwestern atlanta? georgia six, um had been republicans straight from 1978 to 2018 democrat won it eric cantor number two in the uh, Republican the house of representatives under obama represented an affluent area just west and north of the city of richmond virginia that seat Uh went democrat, um near where I live on the south shore of the potomac river There's a district, um, virginia 10 that has been republican for 60 of the past 66 years Uh democrat won it and by the way in all four cases, the winning democrat was a woman often with business orientation or national security credentials Not an aoc type figure at all and That they demonstrate and they won those seats by flipping republican votes and especially republican women votes So do anti-trump republicans matter they change the house and they are probably the seats in the senate If the democrats win in arizona if they win in north carolina Uh, both of which are possible they're going to win by moving anti-but republican-leaving leaning women away from Trump's party to a non-trump party And um One of our viewers wants to Have you take out your scary crystal ball in the case of a loss in november? Do you think trump will cede powers? Yeah, um There are there are a series of important moments between um a voting day And inauguration day remember inauguration day is in the constitution. There has to be an inaugural on the 20th of january of 2021 I have to inaugurate somebody um the people vote on the first tuesday in november, and then there's a period between the vote and Uh the day that the electoral college meets in the middle of december. That's a formal day There's an event where people gather in washington dc. Um, they're overseen by they'll be overseen by vice president mike pence and that Moment will produce a certified winner of the election once we have a certified winner I think the club it's all over. I mean if trump loses at that has lost at that point on january 20 noon January 20th 2021. He just ceases to be president. Um, and it doesn't matter what he said he may If and if he doesn't leave the white house then we have a squatter problem, but he's not president anymore Um and the guy with the nuclear football the nuclear football just walks away. He's not there Uh this no one does the military don't return his calls and he's just not the president And at that I assume at that point, you know The white house ushers pack up his things and throw them out on the sidewalk But it won't come to that the crucial the dangerous moment is the period from voting day to certification day Where trump may if the election is close It'll be the tr. Uh what we saw in florida with bushwick, but just With so much worse will um so much more rage and so much more dirty practice. Um, so let's hope it's not Close do you realize you just had a long thorough good rational answer about whether there will be a peace peaceful transfer of power in america Yeah, well look, this is the thing I have often written before On inauguration day every year every time there's an inauguration people. Um, The commentators say this is the astonishing thing about american life the people peaceful transition of power I assure you on the day that they Pick a new prime minister in denmark No, dane self congratulates on the peaceful transition of power in denmark. No one says that um, yeah When justin trudeau is in a lot of political trouble in canada right now He's likely lose power at the next next election and you know off he'll go And when he goes no one in canada will say this is the miracle of the peaceful Obviously, of course, we're democracies, um, the thing the the thing that makes america so, um It makes these things So tense is we all understand the pos how close how many times in american life the transition to power has not been peaceful and not just 1861 but 1877 there was nearly violence then and there have been other moments, too Um politics in america is a fraught business and this is a highly this is a country whose institutions magnify divisions And is a country crammed with private arms. So of course we're worried about it Um Let me set you to healing you have been a presidential speechwriter at extremely fraught moments Somebody calls you up in december and says david I need the inaugural speech What would you write? For who? Whoever wins if it is, not trump. Whoever we have it's true if if A leader after trump. What is your speech today? Yeah, because if it's trump I I don't want to say there's no fee, uh, because I can think of some pretty big numbers, but you have to have boards you wanted to go there Okay, I need the you know, I need like yeah new passport new identities for myself and my family Give it. Let's go the other way. It's probably more productive for this conversation. Okay for a for president-elect biden, um Uh Biden it's going to be a very difficult problem because he is he is the candidate of two biden won the democratic nomination because of the support of two different groups as unlike each other as possible in america that he won both with the support of um Uh older african-americans who have really experienced in their own lifetimes the worst of american oppression The violations of rights and the people who have the largest appetite for change and the support of more affluent better educated suburban Non-blacks, mostly white especially women the people in american life who are most satisfied with the status quo and so he has to he will have to have a way of pivoting back and forth through the speech to meet the aspirations of uh, the most discontented people in america who voted for him and also to reassure The people who think there's nothing wrong with this country that getting rid of donald trump can't fix and uh and the art of oratory is being able to be present in both those moments to me and not in a glib way not you know, I I sometimes Talk with a certain kind of politician where they talk and it's like, um certain kind of lawn sprinkler Okay, not like Talk this way talk that way, but actually to come up with a coherent message where you can situate. Um The the need for certain changes to appeal to certain parts of the biden coalition with the deep anxiety um that these it is these and I think that the message I think that you're reaching for is These changes will make us more like ourselves. These are not changes to make us different These are changes to make us more the way we think we are and oratory is You state by As if we're in the aftermath of something We have been through something together and we are passing into something else right we have and we have to be different but we have to um Because there are things that are going to be different but we have to be but this is not a revolutionary experiment. Um and uh we and especially if The aftermath of the election is as frightening as it could be and if we've lived through a period in which never mind Even if donald trump accepts the defeat if he's pardoned a bunch of his criminal associates if he's uh directed a whole bunch of money to his businesses at the last minute, I mean if he's behaved Outrageously in the transition if he's pardoned himself, that's a possibility that he may try um that we will we there may be all kinds of constitutional crises and People will want to feel on that inauguration day. Not only hope and promise but also that You can relax they call me sleepy joe for a reason you're going to be happy You can sleep. It's not me who's going to be sleeping. It's you who's going to be sleeping. That's a problem for the american people Yeah, turn down the noise machine yeah grown-ups back yeah, um Another question from the audience. Do you think the republicans? Um will try hard to stop mail in voting? Is this a real issue for the republicans? I think it will be um, all kinds of voting shenanigans because uh, what the I I think a lot of republicans Will say you know It's not the worst thing in the world If donald trump loses a lot of republicans who could make their peace with that The issue the election that is really going to frighten them is uh, what happens at this? To state legislatures republicans between 2010 and 2020 enjoyed a control over state government Unlike anything this country has seen since the republican hegemony of the 1920s 20 2020 is the census year 2021 is a redistricting year the republican hold on states like wisconsin On michigan on the le on the state legislature in michigan on north. Carolina even on georgia even in georgia It depends to a great extent on the boundaries that are drawn if republicans have a bad 2020 Um and democrats do well in 2020 at the state level Those boundaries through the 2020s for congress and state government may look very very different That's I think the thing is going to be on people's on the minds of many republicans. So they're going to be as concerned about Inhibiting about inhibiting voting at the state level as they are about saving donald trump If they can hold on to the state governments, they might be willing to let him go How long have you been in and around washington culture I've lived in washington. Um since 1996 I've been involved in political and active political discussion since I was a teenager, um I knocked on doors for ronald reagan in 1980. Um, I was here in washington. I didn't yet live there on the night that the republicans won their majority in 1994 and got to hang out with newt gingrich who was accompanied by The mighty morphin power rangers in costume for some reason. I don't understand but there they were Um, the reason I ask is there's a question from the audience that I find quite interesting the incentives for election to public office seem to consist primarily of personal wealth and power Do you think that's true and has it always felt that way for the people seeking the office has that become? well first off do you accept the premise and has it become more so I think it's comp. I think it's a very complicated question. Um I think the subjective experience of most people in politics is that they do not feel powerful and um the and while you can acquire a certain amount of wealth, um in politics It's not as much as you require through other Activities, um, it takes a long time and uh, it it exposes you to risks that are much greater than you would have another uh in other fields Who became far richer just doing the corporate lawyer thing, right? So I think people usually come to politics to spend more often come to politics to spend wealth than to acquire it. Um But I I do think it is. It is the promise of wealth and power but I think Look, I think there are a lot of people in politics for various forms of idealism um and some forms You might not recognize and people who go in to protect their vision of the second amendment are Motivated by a spirit of idealism. It may not be An ideal that you share but that it's real Um, I think they think they can make people think they can make a difference. I think people are attracted by the promise of prominence Um, I think many people are excited by the thrill of competition. It's it's um, You know Politics has sometimes been called. Um, uh, hope uh show business for homely people But it might more accurately be called sports for uncoordinated people Now, um, I want to pick up on something you just said about the second amendment because I think you've Hit another really important theme in your book. I don't want to leave behind which is the Cognitive dissonance in the two parties and in people's minds in many cases where You talk about uh, two parties in congress that can't really even agree on the same facts anymore Yeah, and i'm sure many of our viewers right now are thinking well Yes, that's true for the other people, but it's not true for me Yeah, you know and similarly when you're talking about the environment you talk about. Um Conservatives who fail to admit climate change is a problem and Liberals who feel that climate change is just a springboard to a sweeping uh change across the world in how economics works Yeah, um Is there any way and I think in what you say about healing and part of what you said about? the speech biden has to give is about a kind of rise of empathy or a willingness to understand difference In a way, we haven't been able to and in a way that elevated mr. Trump quite a bit to simply Deny, the cognitive basis of others. How do we get back? That's a very hard problem right now I think a big first step toward getting back is to put an end to voter disenfranchisement The way democracy normally works is in most countries you have coalitions even in uh sometimes two sometimes three sometimes four and but in america you always had two great coalitions and each was trying to steal the votes from the other they had a base and then they were they were taking I always think of it as like a game where you have marbles in a bag and you're always reaching into your opponent's bag And trying to take some of your opponent's marbles and that required the um So long as we competed that way the parties had to be always opportunistically on the lookout for issues that could move people from one side to another It was never because you needed so much of the vote. It was never enough to just huddle in your little Issue ghetto you had to find some way to reach across and uh just for competitive purposes what has happened in the 21st century and especially since um The tea party, uh, the strike down of the voting rights act in 2013 The redistrictings of 2011 is that republicans have said our strategy is to win power by shrinking the electorate So we don't have to worry about moving voters from the other side to our side We just shrink the electorate enough until our voters. However few we have are sufficient to deliver us power Once you take away the option of shrinking the electorate as your strategy Once republicans, you know, we're doing pretty well here with 42 percent of the country. Um, but that's not going to be enough Uh, we have to find some way to add another six seven eight nine ten eleven percent then suddenly You realize that six seven eight nine ten eleven percent It doesn't feel about guns the way our 42 percent does um, you know, we still have to honor our 42 percent We can't, you know jettison them, but we have to modify them Um we have in the same way that um democrats in the 1990s when bill clinton was trying to grow the democratic party I just we can't just be a party of labor unions anymore. You know, we have to understand that There's got to be a place for private sector people in the democratic party. Uh You know on we have to find some ways to make entrepreneurs of certain, you know, socially, you know more liberal entrepreneurs But still entrepreneurs feel comfortable. Um, the republicans will need to do that with suburban women um with uh, you know, non-white business owners, um with different um, you know with with uh gay and lesbian people, I mean that there's you know, Why should you know? What why do they belong in the democratic coalition once their particular set of issues is now sort of absorbed into the national consensus um and That only becomes possible when the alternative of winning with 42 is closed off. So that's just not going to work It is I mean for people who believe in free markets you might think The idea of a huge number of customers you could win over should be attractive But instead we have a more expedient culture than that Similarly, it seems in the book you do call on a level of magnaminity and forgiveness and understanding by the democratic side, which you haven't spoken to but That would seem to be necessary for us to get back as well um I I I'm speaking a little bit to many of my friends here So I know how mad people are especially after the events of the past three or four days And they get mad not just at the president and his grasping family and not just at the worst of the political enablers The lindsey grahams and not even just the typical Cowardly republican senator the tom tillis, but they get mad at like their next-door neighbor who uh shares things on facebook and You can get rid of trump and ivanka, and you can probably get rid of lindsey graham and maybe even tom tillis But you're not getting rid of your neighbor. Your neighbor's not moving and Even if you close each other's facebook accounts You still have to find some way to live in the same street the same town the same country at least So how do we do that? Um and We we have seen Trump work so much by making people frightened of each other. We've seen that, you know, he's trying to persuade people like the people probably watch this video that Black looters and antifa are going to come to their neighborhoods and attack their houses and that's why we have to have a police presence On the streets of washington, it looks like something out of romania under the chowcheskus um because you're in danger and Once we understand you're not in danger And even that the terrible scenes of looting of stores which are done by organized criminals the people who have the criminal know-how uh to rob a store are not interested in your used ten-year-old tv they want a new tv right And they haven't been able to do crime for a couple of months. There's a lot of pent up demand on their side They've all been humble. It's true um, and that is a phenomenon well, uh, I would like to end on a uh a positive note here and What do you think? Would be the best outcome if I had you back a year from now Yeah, where would you like the world to be? I'd like to see us Um through the worst through the worst of the pandemic through the worst of the joblessness in a growing economy Um i'd like to see us with a moderate program of political reform and some economic and social reform um i'd like to see us with some optimism and mutual forgiveness, but above all I hope we'll be able to look back on and say You know, there are some gifts of donald trump that those of us who lived through this experience came out of it wiser more compassionate more understanding people um, uh more Intolerant of abuse of power more intolerant of corruption, but but more tolerant of people who think differently from ourselves You know and recognizing finally that American democracy was in many ways in bad shape before donald trump He showed us Vulnerabilities and fortunately, he turned out to be too greedy too corrupt too lazy and too emotional Uh to be able to use all the opportunities he discovered He showed us where we have to lock the doors where we have to seal the holes Where we have to strengthen the fabric, so this can never happen to us again And so we can be a better country Because it was attempt to make us a work his failed attempt to make us a worse country Than we were before he ever entered public life you know, I was going to say something about um Education, but you're really speaking about attending to the angels of our better nature Yeah Well i'm going to read the inaugural, which would do me well Right. Well, I I end the book by quoting. Um, a less famous speech of abraham Lincoln's um, which I don't have quite by heart, but it was the night He won re-election in 1864 where um and a group came to serenade him at the white house and you would think having won Re-election in icd-4, you would give yourself a pat on the back and say not lincoln. Um, he said He went turned self-critical and philosophical he said in any future national trial We shall find that human nature has not changed and we also find that the people of that time like the people of this Will have wise and foolish Good and bad, um brave brave and silly And so therefore let us understand. Let us learn from the incidents of our times and look at them not as wrongs to be Avenged but as philosophy to learn You came really close that was good On that hopeful note our thanks to david frum senior editor of the atlantic and author of the new book Trump apocalypse for joining us today. We'd also like to thank our audience for watching and participating live. Thank you for the excellent questions If you'd like to watch more programs or support the commonwealth club's efforts to make our virtual programming a success, please visit commonwealthclub.org Online i'm quentin hardy. Thank you and stay safe everyone. Thank you. David. Thank you quinn You
