Hello and welcome to this virtual Commonwealth Club program, my name is Dan ashley co-anchor of ABC 7 news in San Francisco and a member of the Commonwealth Club Board of Governors Presently the Commonwealth Club has suspended its in-person Programming because of the corona virus and the shutdown but hosting special virtual events like this one You can learn more about our upcoming virtual events or become a member by visiting Commonwealth Club dot org We are grateful for the generous support of our members and donors and hope you will consider making a donation online or text Donate two four one five, three, two, nine four, two three one. We also encourage you to like Subscribe and share videos like this one with your friends and family During our program we will have time for your questions Please submit those in the chat box because we'd love to hear from you now It is my pleasure to introduce. Today's special guests Jonathan Karl and dr. Nasir gommi Jonathan is the chief White House correspondent and chief Washington correspondent for ABC News. And author of front row at the Trump show Throughout his career. Jonathan has covered every major bead in Washington including the White House Capitol Hill the Pentagon and the State Department he's been with ABC News for more than 17 years and conducted Donald Trump's first Network interview during the 2016 presidential campaign Jonathan has won numerous journalism awards in his remarkable career including an emmy the Walter Cronkite award for national individual achievement and the National Press Foundation's Everett McKinley Dirksen award. He also serves as president of the White House Correspondents Association Dr. Nasir gommi is a professor of psychiatry at Tufts University School of Medicine and a lecturer at Harvard Medical School he has published more than 200 scientific articles and is author of a first-rate madness uncovering the links between leadership and mental illness We hope you enjoy tonight's program with Jonathan Jonathan Carl. And dr. Nasir gummi Thanks Stan Jon it's a pleasure being with you to have this conversation together It's great to be here with you. Thank you for doing it this year. Thank you And I appreciate all the people who are joining us online today One of the reasons you and I are having this conversation is because your book makes a surprising discovery that my book was required reading in the West Wing and we're going to come back to that in a little while, but that's a that's the link here and We'll get into that, but I want to start by Talking to some about your book in the first part of our conversation for those who have not read your best-selling book Can you give a little background for our viewers about? how long you've known Donald Trump and what led you to write the book I I wrote this book in this year because I I just I had a story I mean just an unbelievable story that I had been compiling For years and as I covered the 2016 presidential campaign And I covered the transition and Donald Trump becoming president. I was just so consumed with day-to-day news I mean every day seemed to have three or four stories that in the past might have dominated for a month News coverage and they were all happening one after another and it was hard to keep up So I knew that ultimately I wanted to come back and tell this story. I first met Donald Trump back in 1994 um, and I had a number of Interactions with him dating back to that time Until before he started to run for president as he as was mentioned in the introduction that the first interview with him of the 2016 presidential cycle and I had a relationship with him and I had a series of experiences that made good stories, you know back when he was just a developer, but Now he's president of the United States so I wanted first and foremost to tell this story not this is not my book was not meant to be written as An indictment of Trump or you know, and certainly not not in praise of Donald Trump. It was to tell the story of this unbelievable journey that I to the White House and Donald Trump took to the White House and I my goal in the book was to Write something that would kind of You survived the news cycle because it's there's like a so rapid it. You know, it book books on Trump come out one afternoon We'll know their stories big stories big news big news developments, but I don't want it to write something that if you came from another planet in twenty or forty or fifty years and He came down. He said what and you ask the question. What was that? Donald Trump stuff? What was that all about? I would hope that somebody be able to hand you my book and say this gives you a little bit of a sense of how It happened and what it was like Mmm, yeah. Well, you definitely do that. You definitely do that. And I think you have a unique perspective because you knew Donald Trump twenty years before he became president and Afterwards what what's your sense of that? Do you think he's the same guy before and after was he just as you wrote? You know a guy who exaggerated things But it was all in fun and people liked him before it and now it's not so much fun It's sort of dangerous. And is he the same person? Is he a different person? What's your take on that? I have two meetings that I described one at the very beginning of the book and one at the very end The one at the very beginning is the first time I met Donald Trump, which was back in 1994 and I was a young reporter for the New York Post and I called him Really cold called him. He had no idea who I was at all and I just called the general number at the Trump Organization and said hey, I want to talk to Donald Trump Hey, and I got turned I'm actually quite quickly, even though I was a total nobody at a tabloid newspaper in New York. I got through to him It was a crazy story Donna Michael Jackson and Lisa Marie Presley had just gotten secretly married and they were standing at Trump Tower and I wanted to do a story about why the most famous newlyweds in the world would begin their honeymoon in Trump Tower And he loved that story obviously and I spent an hour with him running around Trump Tower. He showed me everything. He showed me where Where they were staying introduced me to their bodyguards secret passageways underneath Trump Tower where they could leave to avoid the crowds outside Where all the other you know famous people that had apartments in Trump Tower lived All this stuff his own apartment and I spent like an hour with him I still a photo it's in the block of that. Right favorite part of the book is actually I went through and collected all these photos over 30 years but at this photo from 1994 me and Donald Trump in his apartment on the on the 60th floor of Trump Tower and It's a striking how much he looks the way he does now same expression You see in all the photos. He takes with people now at the White House behind the resolute desk The same long tie a little too long dark suit, he's you know, he weighs more now the suits are a little bigger now But but same everything about him seems the same So there was that meeting and at the end of the book I described a meeting where I was Basically summoned to the Oval Office by it by Trump Just last September because he was really upset about a story I had done and I ended up having a meeting that lasted nearly an hour with him in the Oval Office and it's it's a while surreal meeting that I described for the first time in the book, but as I'm Talking with him and he's sitting on the rim, you know at the resolute desk He's the President of the United States, by the way, there's all kinds of things happening. That world North Korea I started testing missiles again at the time of this meeting. It's it's it's just after the shootings in El Paso And Dayton US you have all the concerns about that There's a hurricane bearing down on on on Florida five category five hurricane and Here I am Spending nearly an hour because he's concerned about one line and my story that ran the night before you know and but but you know this the Conversation goes in a thousand different directions and it just struck me As I was sitting there looking at him sitting at the resolute in the Oval Office This was the same guy that I was with in 1994 running around Talking about Michael Jackson and Lisa Marie Presley and the way he's talking The his entire approach to everything is almost exactly the same. It's cereal exaggeration and he's you know Concerned above all about making himself the center of the story. Um, He's the same guy But the stakes are entirely different. It doesn't matter if you are not telling the truth for instance and you're you know Just a guy that wants to get in the papers and you know, you're trying to sell apartments or buildings you know, it's one thing but if you're President of the United States an entirely different situation, so that that Really? Struck me And I did to think back and that's kind of what the books about to be there in 1994 I'm like a young tabloid reporter one of the most junior reporters of the New York Post which is the 4th largest circulation paper in New York City, so, you know means and to think that I would ultimately end up at the White House was pretty inconceivable And then I would end up at the White House at the same time that he would end up at the White House is President But same guy ultimately the same guy. Yeah, that's a really interesting observation I mean that firstly there's this parallel rise on both of you which is an interesting thing in the book But uh the fact that he's the same guy is interesting, you know Lord David Owen who was a British foreign minister in late 70s and as a neurologist Wrote a book called the hubris syndrome after he observed that Tony Blair completely changed he felt in his personality before and after power before he was very rational and listened to lots of opinions and so on and afterwards he just didn't do that anymore and just went his own way in the Iraq war for instance and the same thing with George W Bush, so Lord Owens perspective was that power corrupts in this way? Some people their personality changes, but sounds like maybe in this case president's case He already had the hubris to begin with and then maybe there wasn't much room for change He certainly had the hubris I think there is one thing that did evolve as he as he was pret when he first came to Washington He was somebody Donald Trump was somebody who had barely ever visited Washington let alone have any experience in Washington so he created this, you know, he hired this staff around him and you remember Reince Priebus was made chief of staff, but The day they announced Reince Priebus. He was third person mentioned in the in the press release because he was also announcing that Steve Bannon was his chief strategist and You know Jared Kushner was gonna have an elevated role in the West Wing as well. But he had these people around him and He I think even though yet the bravado which he always always had. Um He felt he didn't know Washington. He needed to lean on somebody like Reince Priebus Who by the way it actually didn't have much washing experience either? he'd been the chairman the RNC but before that he was a guy in Wisconsin, you know, local party guy mom, but He asked he sought advice he didn't always take the advice But he felt that he needed to and now I think and I described this self evolution in the book I mean, he's at a point where? He thinks that He doesn't need any advice. Uh every time he looks at somebody was gonna give him advices and when you were the same people Especially experienced people's most experienced Republicans You were the people said I was gonna lose you were the people that said I couldn't cloning us all the hell with all you know he just Did there I've got a chapter in the book called no guardrails there were some guardrails in the beginning those guardrails were completely gone Within a year and a half of the Trump presidency now the remnants or even basalt So I'm wondering went away. Maybe he is adhering to the pattern that Owen in some ways so, I mean I think Let's let's take step into it a little bit more. But this a Standard question always is with this president How did he get elected to begin with and and you have a chapter in your book about a black called Black Swan about how? This is that kind of unusual rare event with major Consequences and you talk about how the Republican National Committee had this meeting with That was not on the record at the time where they were predicting he would lose badly but that one of the posters that you that was I guess at ABC News that was Doing a unique statistical analysis actually got it. Exactly, right So maybe let's start with your your description of how was it that he actually got elected? Well, first of all I think nobody thought he was gonna win and I think that included Donald Trump two days after the election I described in the book I happened to be in the Oval Office when Donald Trump first met uh Brocco bomber and this is the one great exception. This was the one time I saw Donald Trump where he actually did appear and People are surprised when I use this word pretty hippie He appeared humble he appeared like He was a little blown away by his surroundings and about Responsibility he was about to an area. We were brought in with the press after he had met with Obama for a full hour and It was Obama's meeting Obama was in charge, you know three days ago I think Donald Trump never thought that this meeting was ever gonna happen anything like it and here he was realizing he was about to get the keys to American democracy and I took photos with my With my own phone, there are some photos that other, you know, obviously had a lot of photographers in there But I go back and I look through these these pictures and his posture is different. The look on his face is different he's it's the one meeting where he's But I I think that he that I've ever seen him in where he wasn't in charge because it was Obama's meeting Obama still president but that quickly changed but in terms of how You know how he won we did Look, I think that it was the grits. It was the greatest upset in American political history and I called it a Black Swan event, which means incredibly rare events I it was a combination of Hillary Clinton's weakness as a candidate. I the Combination of the combined with the fact that nobody really thought he was gonna win. So a lot of people who would Vote against him and but didn't like he'll already very much decided just to stay home. I mean, why bother she's gonna win anyway, um, he won the you know, bye-bye narrow margins in states that I You know, nobody thought he really had a chance, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania He There were there were series of events at the very end of the campaign including you know the the famous case of James Comey reopening the email investigation because of what was found on Anthony Weiner's computer But that the one person you mentioned and I'm glad you bring it up because it hasn't gotten enough attention there we had somebody in our polling unit who was Experimenting with an entirely different way of analyzing the polling data And and the first thing I'll say is that virtually every news organization in America was doing it wrong Including ABC all of us. We were measuring the wrong thing major networks major newspapers had what they call tracking polls Which meant we would we would every day we would You know do another poll and we would average three or four days together drop off the last day at the new one and he could see how the race was evolving and But these were national numbers like how many you know where the standing was across all of America? Registered likely voters that's a meaningless stat. I mean Donald Trump lost the popular vote and he's in the White House So it means nothing to tell you who is winning Nationally, but that's what we're all measuring because a lot harder to go in and do who all the states and do it So what this guy did though is? Because the tracking poll takes place over two weeks It's got a lot of interviews and we know every person that's interviewed the pollsters get all the you know Where are you from with so what he did is he went through and he extrapolated all the polling data? from each of the states so every time somebody in you know voted for Michigan he had ad word in Michigan that you know Maybe Iowa voters are here. They get Florida and then at the end of it all the tracking poll ends, right? you know, they goes two days before the election or the day before the election he Puts it all together and say where do all the states? stand and He had every state right except for one and it added up to a victory for Donald Trump. That was experimental It was not proven. We did not publish his data Uh-huh, but I haven't I saw it. I was at the briefing and Trust me, they'll be looking a lot more its analysis Sounds like which one we need to next time. Yeah, yeah Well before we get to the re-election I want to just discuss one Dean seemed to me like a main theme of your book which is This question of truth and you called it the assault on on truth and this fake news type of this topic discussion maybe you can share with us your general thoughts about that as its kind of a general idea that that you have Well, I I found this old interview that Trump did when he was 37 years old with a sports writer for The New York Times named IRA Bercow and he said Creating illusions is to a certain degree What we must do that was Donald Trump as a 30 something year old person and that's continues to worry what he does I mean he You know, I talk about Trump Tower itself. It's kind of a case study because I Told you I was in his apartment on the 68th floor Trump Tower only has 58 stories It's an illusion now the fifth floor Ends and the floor above the fifth floor is the 14th floor voila You suddenly have 10 more stories, you know tent you're your your tent your top story. Looks like it's it's still the same building. Um, so, you know, he's been Exaggerating he's been you know, I talked about Donald Trump is somebody who will lie for almost any reason I another story rick reilly a Legendary sports columnist was with Sports Illustrated at the time and he went to do a profile on Trump at one of his golf tournaments and Trump kept on introducing and there's the president of Sports Illustrated and Riley which leaks away. I'm not why do you say that? No, I'm not the president I'm a columnist and then finally while you pulled him aside say why do you keep lying about me? And Trump said it sounds better sounds better. He'll lie. If it sounds better he'll lie to make you feel better He'll lie to make himself feel better He'll lie to you know, make everybody in the room feel like they're part of something bigger and larger than it is He'll lie to make a deal. He'll lie to win. All right. Yeah doesn't matter. Um but what I worry about is He's done that on one side. And then the other thing he's done with these relentless attacks on Press Calling real news fake news He once said in a speech to the Veterans of Foreign Wars He told supporters he said Don't believe what you are seeing in the newspapers don't believe what you were watching um You know, he's literally telling them don't believe your own eyes So he's he's relentlessly waged this war against real solid, you know Against an independent free press which is fine. Every president complains about the press, but this is different. He's undermining He's calling things that are true False he's calling things that are real fake and he's convincing about a third of the country Maybe maybe more than a third of the country that they really can't believe anything. They see in a newspaper and and then at the same time because he himself is saying so many things that are untrue you have maybe Nearly half the country that won't believe anything that comes out of the White House so you have a situation where There are different realities. You know it Daniel Patrick Moynihan said you're entitled to your own opinion but you're not entitled to your own facts, and now we have a society where People don't agree on day and night I mean it's like totally different versions of reality. I think that's really dangerous Right, right, and it's interesting to think about how much of that is I see a symptom of a larger cultural problem as opposed to being the problem as you know, there's been debates in universities for instance a lot over the last few decades about Facts versus social constructions of reality that kind of thing and a bit of relativism that's gotten in there. Yes Post-modernism it's like a didn't want to say the word. I was missing This is stuff that I was dealing with in my in my college literature classes, you know Not not not at the white house now. It's now it's not in college lyrics right? Yeah but You made the point in the book and this really struck me and in beginning you made the point that yeah Trump has a lot of support among people who will look at these little lies say on Twitter these little tweets and say Yeah, but put that in the context of all these prior presidents who didn't do all that but failed in various ways So it's not as bad as say george, w bush telling the country that there were weapons of mass destruction in iraq and taking us to war when there wasn't and so they they give the current president a pass for these little lines and when I read that I Struck me because I know the book was mostly written and came out before the pandemic and before the current Massive social racial change that's going on and With the pandemic in particular we have over a hundred thousand deaths now So can we really say the same thing as? We might have been able to some supporters might have been able to say before I wanted to raise that question - yeah I know it's it's a really good question because until the pandemic Donald Trump had actually benefited from something that not many presidents get this luxury Three years of no major crises. I mean there were a lot of crises in the White House But they were self created either by the President himself or by his by a staff and the investigations need a lotta you know all of that all the all the stuff the the stuff surrounding for instance the child separation policy at the border or the Travel ban, and these were these were crises, but they were created from within With the pandemic for the first time you have a major crises, perhaps the one of the greatest of our lifetimes if not Maybe the greatest Fall on his lap and then follow it on with all we have seen since the killing of George Floyd so now suddenly Trump has to deal with crises that are not simply self-created right, but what what I was trying to explain, is that a Lot of people who support Donald Trump will look and they'll watch and actually the watch say the cable Channels two or two of the three cable channels and they'll say look All the coverage is about all the horrible things Donald Trump did today. They never once paused to talk about anything that he's actually accomplished Until recently you would say, you know the economy You know some of the stuff he did on on criminal justice reform, you know You know bill that had been you know long advocated by people on both Democrats and Republicans and didn't get anywhere Trump signed it into law You know you focus on these on these things, you know Trump's done a lot of stupid things Maybe there's some channeling some of the people that would support him. Sure. He says law I wish you wouldn't wait He says things that are outrageous. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, but, you know, did he ever like get us into a war over false intelligence? That's the only thing that as really as damaging as what Donald Trump says What's a George Bush did or some of the colossal mistakes that some of his predecessors did Vietnam? But now the quote that in the book but now the question is well has he with this now I don't you know, I don't know. I mean he didn't a hundred thousand people didn't die because of Donald Trump, but you could certainly Raise really serious questions about the way he you know, the way he handled it the way the way he's handled this crisis, obviously there was that really but There was that recent analysis from one of the UK medical groups which said that if they had Started the quarantine about a week earlier They would have saved half the lives who died if you apply that to the US you could argue, you know This is a person who was in denial from January to March You know that's hat 50,000 lives were more potentially You know, but this brings me to I think that may be a segue to talk about About the question of whether he's a good crisis leader Which is what my book was about about what makes for a good crisis leadership and let's let's describe You know, what you discovered which was that when chief of staff Mick Mulvaney took over? after John Kelly and and Prior folks that were there. He had the White House staff go to Camp David and gave him my book But I let you tell the story. Yeah He had just become chief of staff and He figured the best way to get started was to invite all the senior advisors to the president to Camp David for a weekend retreat And he and he held your book up. I'm told And read some passages you read some of what you wrote about About FDR It goes a scene in your book that he reads from describing FDR to talking to uh to some of us top advisors after Pearl Harbor and he's kind of blundering in his discussion all over the place and he's like it doesn't seem focused and um and Any did any? describes the way the way he kind of summed up your your book is Some of the the best leaders in times of crises some of the best leaders have been people who had mental illness McClellan was a perfectly sane individual and a horrible general But Sherman Who mentally ill? Was a very successful civil war general Winston Churchill was you know all over the place Neville Chamberlain perfectly sane guy who was the better leader? for For the UK dealing with with the irrationality of Nazi Germany So he's he's making this case and would would blew me away about this finding was firstly you wrote your book in 2011 So you wrote your book before Donald Trump? Before Barack Obama was reelected. I'm you wrote a play before Trump's running for president. You don't mention Donald Trump But the point that Mulvaney is making clearly is You may think the Trump is crazy that the guy we're working for is insane. It is mentally ill forgive me for using mentally ill um But Maybe is and maybe that's the good thing and what you think is Is is crazy is actually genius and the corollary to that is This is the new chief of staff acting chief of staff is Don't try to channel the president follow Don't try to like because they cuz the previous chief of staff John Kelly was always trying to keep Trump within those guardrails I was talking about and how Mulaney was saying Sounds nuts to you, but let me tell you It's genius. So so Let me ask you. Um Well clay before we get to Donald Trump grinders to ask a very basic question first always Is that summary of your argument kind of close too close to accurate? Yeah, definitely. It's accurate. I can I can flesh it out a little bit more for you to viewers who haven't read my book the Idea, I had was that there are some benefits to some psychiatric conditions. I see it in my own patients I treat a lot of people with depression and manic depressive illness bipolar illness for businessmen entrepreneurs politicians Successful people and so I know that it it's helpful to them I see it in their lives and when I got into researching it I realized that there's this research in psychology and psychiatry that shows some benefits for instance people who have depression are more realistic Than people who are not depressed It's part of normal mental health to overestimate yourself to view things somewhat optimistically psychologists call this mild positive illusion And that's a good thing in normal life but if you're a Crisis leader and the slightest lack of realism could lead to a war or to a pandemic or whatever that could actually be a problem Even having normal mental health could be a problem People are depressed or more empathic Towards others than normal mentally healthy persons People who are manic and and we all know what depression is mania is the opposite it's the state of being sped up and fast and you're thinking movement and feeling People like that don't sleep a lot. They talk fast. They're distractible They have high sexual drives that high physical energy their make rapid decisions. Sometimes impulsive they have high self esteem That sounds familiar. I'm familiar. Yeah, and It's very obvious. In fact sin, and it's very common in entrepreneurs and Because they are creative manias associated creativity It's also found a lot in writers artists poets and so on And there's also research that shows that people who are manic or more resilient to trauma or stress than normal people They bounce back more easily. So if you're a manic depressive leader, you're Realistic empathic creative and resilient and that makes you Winston Churchill or maybe Franklin Roosevelt or maybe General Sherman, he also could make you Ulf Hitler who also had bipolar illness. It's not a sign of Good leadership in the sense that the beliefs of the leader necessarily would be something you someone might agree with we all have different political views, but For the purposes of that leader, these traits can attract followers and make them effective That was the idea. But the idea it was also had a corollary, which was that that was the case in crises Is that when you're in a crisis you need realism and creativity and resilience? But in the average normal daily life, you don't need all that, you know when things are going fine And there's peace and prosperity and the trains are running on time and the economy is doing great You just need a manager who isn't gonna rock the boat and the past will predict the future He needs to get along with people. That's all people want and that's normal That's what normal mental health gives you and so my point was then in times of peace and prosperity normal mentally healthy People are better leaders than people with Manic-depressive illness in particular, but in times of crises actually when you look at the great leaders They tended to be a manic-depressive that was the idea so, how do you Which is one basic question before we turn to Donald Trump in your assessment of him when you're when you're looking at Churchill you you also talk about Abraham Lincoln. I assume that the Adolf Hitler chapter was one that That Mulvaney might have glossed over But how do you how do you make that assessment that for instance that that Winston Churchill had some mental illness Yeah, and that's kind of a central issue with this kind of it's called psycho history. Yeah, psychological psychiatric ideas for history there are different ways of doing it and I think there are better and worse ways of doing it the worst ways are to take For instance Freudian speculative ideas and guess about it in someone's psyche I mean that's hard enough to do with a patient who's sitting in front of you on a couch for hours on end for years On them as a as a therapist. It's really not something at once you can do at a distance for somebody else and that's probably a lot of what's behind some of you know, it's what's out there in the profession which is There's a thing called the Goldwater rule that after goldwater ran for president. He sued some such Magazines that had done poll of psychiatrists who said they thought he was an unfit to be President mentally Because they really couldn't make that judgment at a distance Some of them said he had schizophrenia for instance with the current president's a lot of people will say he's narcissistic he's Psychopathic they come up with these labels Which really are about interpreting the internal psychological experiences of someone and that is hard to do and I'm not supportive of that but way and you don't like the term narcissism I Don't because it does imply a psychological interpretation of somebody's mental Internal mental state like I'm not gonna guess how you feel internally in your mental state, you know Generally, I'll know you well enough for that and you can't guess me That kind of thing is really something that is clinical. It has to happen in a private psychiatrist or clinicians office, but what is not Limited to the doctor's office is if somebody is severely depressed they stop eating and sleeping. They don't get out of bed. They don't laugh They get suicidal and they might kill themselves that doesn't take much interpretation. That's those are really objective physical signs And when someone's manic as we talked about they're the opposite they're hyperactive don't sleep and so on If he's sleeping for hours a night that's a manic symptom you no need to interpret anything. That's more objective. And that's why I think not all psychiatric illnesses But some like manic depression can be diagnosed and this I disagree with the American Psychiatric Association's principle on this and I've had I'm part of the always Association we've had symposia professionally about it We debate it, but I think it's it's not a limiting factor If you're if your diagnosis based on more or less objective criteria, that can be proven So so Bill Clinton famously slept like no more than four hours a night and some of those those other other characteristics you described I Did how does he fit into this? Yeah, I so the there's a couple ways you can have this these symptoms I call it the Goldilocks principle where if you have a small amount they're helpful to you you have too much of these symptoms they're harm and if you have when you're mentally It's also harmful in terms of leadership. So You know Mostly people think about these symptoms in terms of patients who may have very severe symptoms and I treat a lot of patients for 25 years May have severe depression severe bipolar illness. They often are not very functional But people that have mild depression and mal manic symptoms can be quite functional And in fact, some people have them all the time as part of their personality So we know about some people are a little down all the time. We call that this time yet Some people are up or a little manic all the time high energy high sexual drive. Charisma creativity. We call that hyperthermia, which is the kind of What's what I see is is consistent with what you see in The case of President Clinton and also the current president and it's really common like I said among leaders and entrepreneurs for instance when I wrote first rate madness in 2011, I Wanted to write about an entrepreneur in addition to the political military leaders And if I had picked Donald Trump, I would have been a genius I suppose Perfect. I just so so I assess Donald Trump Ted Turner, it's an order right that is my view more or less the democratic Donald Trump. I mean personality-wise are very similar, but good So so let me just ask point-blank assess Donald Trump does he have does he have mental illness? I said I don't wouldn't use the phrase mental illness because You know, there are mental illnesses are very severe like schizophrenia, we're not talking about that and Personality traits really are not illnesses. There are variations on the norm Hyperthermia for instance being mildly manic all the time is a temperament We call it and it's related to manic depression, which is an illness. It's biologically related That's not the same thing is just i'm just going from from your book which with it with the subtitle Mentorship and mental illness. I know the subtitle is not my favorite But it's it's it's not a yeah, it always required a little clarification right right, right To an assess him. What do you how does Donald Trump fit into your based on what we tell and we have to go by what we know because There may be something that he hasn't told us where he's hidden from the public But from what we know he has mild manic symptoms all the time as part of his personality decreased nature asleep talkativeness racing thoughts Etc impulsivity distractibility - energy. Those are all manic symptoms high self-esteem as part of your personality now he Doesn't appear to get into episodes that last for months on end where they get really severe and out of control He also doesn't appear to have periods of severe depression where he's non-functional for weeks or months on end That's and at least we don't know of that and that's what you would see in full-blown bipolar illness or manic-depressive illness But what we have now is just the manic symptoms and I think that the way that relates to his leadership is that having? Manic symptoms but not any depression actually only makes you half of a good crisis leader It may make you creative and resilient but it actually makes you on empathic even less empathic than normal people and much less than depressed people and unrealistic even less realistic than normal people and much less than to press people and The kind of crisis leader you need when you have a pandemic where? You really needed to be on the ball that's to start that quarantine a week earlier to save 50,000 live is someone who's highly realistic and Someone the kind of leader you need when? One more black man is killed by police under their knee is a highly empathic leader And those are exactly the two traits that his hypothermia denies him So if you were to do that chapter now What would you say about him? I would say that I would say that that hyperthermic part and I would just add a qualifier that As far as we know that's the case if he's ever had a depressive episode 20 or 30 years ago you know that might change a little bit of the interpretation but As far as we know that's the case. I fact recently. I tried to Have written this some in some places In various places online some some magazines But it's been hard to publish these ideas in major media and I have the same reaction from some psychiatrist colleagues partly because there's a reluctance to Address this issue of psychiatric or medical interpretations of a leader Related to the Goldwater rule for instance or other reasons and recently for instance I wrote up these ideas and got to the last stage of a near publication and a major media Outlet and in the last stage of editorial review it was rejected And the reason it was rejected was because I couldn't prove that the President had never been depressed Mm-hmm. So the claim was well, okay, he might be manic, but you can't prove he wasn't depressed therefore We really don't know. You still don't know what his situation is and that's no proving A negative is almost impossible, but you have to go with what you have and I think you know It's consistent with what we see. We've had three years of him If he had depression we probably would have seen it in the public light by now So yeah, I mean when you when you told me about the book in Macmillan and you didn't mention McClellan a-movin, yeah Yeah, the White House had the book and you asked me what I thought by email This is what I wrote to you and you put it in the book and I appreciate that. You put my interpretation because You know it could the perspective I have could be misinterpreted It could be taken in vain as my editor said when I told him about all this because What I'm not saying is if you have manic depression of some variety, you're gonna be a great leader no matter what right? there are provisos and qualifiers to it and you put that qualifier in the book for instance if it's very here in the case of Hitler it's not it's very dangerous and if in and the proviso I'm getting now is is if It's just part of it if you just have the manic side and not the depressive side You really suffer from not having the empathic realistic leadership and that could be dangerous in your view and dangerous yeah, and the other thing that has come up is People used to say well, he's a good Christ. He's gonna be a good president because you know, we have crises but as you said, Turns out those weren't crises This is what a crisis feels like today you and me on zoom' instead of being in the same room in San Francisco With a hundred thousand people dead and with riots happening on the streets every night for the last few weeks This is what a crisis feels like and this is one we're going to know if he's a good crisis leader or not. And and That'll lead us to this reelection Well, we should probably get on an alert there are number of questions that have come in let's see what we got here Yeah, we have questions and and the number for you. So if you don't mind out, I'll read one or two for you. Um so Would you say what are three adjectives you would use to describe Donald Trump? That's a tough one, can we get we could we come back to that? Okay Here's another tough one. I'm sorry. Yeah Even lets you observe on a daily basis. Do you believe our country and democracy will survive the Trump presidency? Yes and I I think the maybe the most important part of My book and the part that I struggled the most with Is my very last chapter? where I described Why I believe the current situation and it's not all Trump's doing is Perilous at this moment was perilous Perilous because we have become so deeply divided That we don't agree on basic facts anymore and if you don't agree on basic facts and on the nature of It's hard to overcome those divisions. Maybe impossible Trust trust is a Part of everything that makes our System work We Star ability to go out and vote and elect leaders and that if they are terrible leaders that we can have another election and both them out we we trust that this piece of paper we hold in our hand is worth something because Well because of the government that's backing it, you know dollar bill was a dollar bill We we need to have some element of trust to make this system work and to do that you have to have some kind of an agreement about I think the nature of truth and I think that that is It's in danger right now and Trump's a big part of it He's not the only part of it, but he's a big part of it but I also um, I I Have tremendous faith in in our institutions and that faith gets challenged every day. I'm not saying it doesn't But if you look at what happened with the president's talk of invoking The insurrection act and sending active-duty military into American streets I Think it's notable that our very military leaders stood up against that and Wouldn't I don't think would have carried out those, you know convinced him not to do that. And I think made it pretty clear They would they would resign rather than carry out an order like that I get a lot of variation a variant of that question is what happens if Trump loses will he will he go voluntarily? Um Actually back Joe Biden was asked a variation of that question by Trevor Noah And basically said look the military We have good people who will go in and calmly carry him escort him out the door I had somebody who worked for Donald Trump in a very senior level tell me the same thing when I asked the question Which makes me think by the way was Joe Biden talking to the same person I was talking to but the person I was talking to I added another Very vivid imagery. He said Donald Trump could chained himself to the resolute desk And people would very calmly Clip cut the chains and walk him out the door so I don't think that's gonna happen and I and I believe that Donald Trump's You know he I Called the Trump show cuz that's the way he sees that he is Pia's Broadcasting the greatest reality television show the world has ever seen. He talks about the ratings. He talks about the reviews That's what he talks about when he's talking about media coverage. He consumes more media than the newer I have never dreamed of consuming. You know, he told me at one point the TiVo the first DVR was the greatest invention when the greatest inventions ever because he can watch all the shows You know he could and I've gotten calls from him maybe like a delay after something I have done on on Good Morning America Maybe one here. It goes on at 7 o'clock I'll hear for him at 10:00 because he's watched all the other shows First and then he got around to GMA and they need internet calls. So he he consumes news. He sees it like a show and I don't think he wants to actually be the big strong leader. I think that he wants to play the big strong leader So, uh look if if he loses He'll it'll do what every other president is lost before him I believe yeah, so I that's It's it's interesting. We have a lot of questions coming in about different Characteristics of the president let me just take one and then I'll ask, you know one of these but only take one on Comment on Trump's mother and her thinking that he could never do wrong Yeah, I'll just comment on that and then you can also but I think one of the points I would make in relation to that question that question is you know my perspective on say how manic or depressive symptoms which are mood states affect a leader is Not that it's the whole story. I think it's an important part of the story, but it's not the whole story There are other aspects to a person that are relevant Some people grow up in very religious families some people grow in very secular families Some people grow up wealthy some people grow poor there all social cultural variations Education, so there are lots of things that affect Who a person becomes not just the magnet precedent, but I do think the manic-depressive traits are necessary for great crisis leadership, but if they're not sufficient There's other things that may also be needed or that may explain the person and one thing that I think is relevant to this president that you brought up many times is the issue around truth and lying and And and if someone's manic that doesn't tend to make you lie people like that, don't lie It's not part of the mania to line. There's that's something else that may have to do with whether his mother You know built him up so much that he felt that way or coming from Queens versus Manhattan and having a chip on his shoulder There are other aspects but I thought I'd mentioned that and and see if you had any comments as well John yeah, I honestly don't know I mean Trump very infrequently talks about his parents, but he does on occasion and and talked about his brother Fred who died As the main reason why he doesn't drink because because fred was an alcoholic But I Maybe because it's not my area I've never really I've never really tried to dive into what we could learn about his upbringing and how that tells us about where he is now, although It's very interesting. I sent you that I sent you an email about this today. I think right there's a UH There's a book coming out By Donald Trump's knees by his brother brother Fred's daughter III believe coming out later this summer. Um, and It's not looks like it's gonna be quite an interesting book It's gonna talk about their upbringing in Queens because she was she witnessed a lot of it So maybe we'll learn a little bit more, but I think that's one I think that Donald Trump in some ways is the most transparent president we've ever had I mean we know kind of his day-to-day minute-by-minute thoughts through Twitter among other things But he doesn't he doesn't reveal much about about his upbringing it really doesn't yeah it's a big black box Yeah but it'll be interesting to see if if his niece fills in some of those holes or what what not relationships like I mean, We don't know I mean and I'm kind of fascinated about Donald Trump's sister the judge, you know You just don't you just don't Don't he I mean, I don't know you know, one of the things that I learned in my research was a Fifty year rule which is it seemed to me that it took about 50 years for the truth to come out about a leader Usually after all the people who were that leaders peers and family and so on passed away The oral history archives would get open. The medical records would get open at the case of John Kennedy for instance His medical records weren't open until 10 years ago or so And it made it clear that he did have Addison's disease and he did have severe depression and he was suicidal He was even treated with antipsychotics in the White House. None of that was known It took a decade or two to a church ill with after Churchill's death that his depression is dr Published memoirs about Churchill's depression and even then he was I think he was sued by Churchill's family so it takes a while for things to come out and and so it's not surprising that we don't know a lot about current presidents childhood and a part of the problem is that you know by the time you find out about somebody it's irrelevant to in terms of right, right political This is American, but it will be interesting to see because if I'm right about The manic depression if there is an aspect of this in him, it's a highly genetic illness So there should be other people in the family who have it too Some will have it more severely so you might have cases even of suicide or such And you see that in the case of all the most of the leaders that I wrote about And that's what you would expect. But again when you find out about it can be can be quite delayed So we'll see. It's interesting another question You talk a lot. I think this will get into some detail and you're from your book Can you talk about Trump's inner circle you talk a lot about different people in the White House who tried to work with him? What would you want to summarize about Trump's inner circle? Well? there's there's a I think the big thing about his inner circle is that they spend much of their time trying to keep up with him You know Trump is the big decision-maker He is You know, it's a micromanager but he doesn't really micromanage is more of like the big alter macro mentor he he swings in He makes decisions very quickly and and and those around him trying to catch up and I think that sometimes people make a mistake in analyzing some of the people around Donald Trump for instance his immigration hardline. They'll say well that's Stephen Miller You know Stephen Miller is the one that does all that. Well, Stephen Miller didn't come onto the Trump campaign until January of 2016 What did Donald Trump do in his first speech when he announced he was running By the way, five years ago today when he came down the escalator the Mexicans they're rapists their drug is they're bringing it I mean that best that was way before Donald Trump had any idea who Stephen Miller was so You know people thought it was all Steve banning. This is all Steve bandhans ideas all this hyper nationalism No, Steve banning was there and then he was gone and Trump remain the same So it's what he is in a very real sense his own chief of staff his own national security adviser his own communications director his own press secretary that said, Um as I described the evolution of his inner circle because it has changed over time There there were people in the very beginning who perhaps you know we're trying to get a hold of all this and trying to steer him and he was listening to that was the kind of banning Priebus You know Jared Kushner you're where they're all kind of at war with each other and trying to influence him that was like the first part of the Trump presidency and then john kelly comes in and John, kelly who has a very tight relationship with with with Jim mattis? And also with with Rex Tillerson, by the way the the Secretary of State They kind of have a view that look, there's a lot of good that Donald Trump can do but he's also got a lot of self-destructive tendencies, and what we need to do is just try to like Him from doing the bad stuff and allow the good stuff to to go forward so they didn't necessarily Challenge Trump to his face on a lot of stuff. I say that one of the things that that mattis said to people privately was the Trump was in period impervious to fact so you Couldn't convince him of something if you had a wrong idea there was like no way to get it out of his head so instead you would just You know if he says something we kind of buried that somewhere, you know, don't follow that order So I described this scene now HR McMaster who was the national security adviser at that time? I had a very different view which is he asked it's his job to carry out the orders the commander in chief and it's also his Job to challenge the commander-in-chief to his face if he thought he was wrong and if he couldn't carry out the order resign if not you carry on ultimately or Nobody elected the National Security Adviser. They elected the president So I described a scene in the book where? There's a meeting in the Oval Office about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela An HR McMaster is the one there to brief the president an HR McMaster three-star Army General brilliant guy, but somebody whose style Trump just really didn't like, I mean, he was like a Trump's almost like a drill sergeant. He came in and had that briefings and Trump doesn't like that you know he wants to he wants to do most of the talking so HR is giving the rundown of what's going on in Venezuela on some of the options to put on additional diplomatic pressure to force Maduro to step down and Trump just gets in his head. Well, what are our military options and Hcard Explains, you know, they really aren't, you know, it's not really a military option for ravenna Suellen We've got a whole range of diplomatic tools that we can use economic tools and Trump Continues to like steam and get get more and more angriest as the meeting goes on. What are our Millah? I want military. I want to know what the mill what can we do militarily. Can we do an embargo? could we do that and and The meeting ends rather abruptly and HR says, yes, sir, and he goes out Leaves the Oval Office and walks down that hallway Towards where the you know tends to go down one way take a right to get to the national security Advisors office and John Kelly hustles after him and says, where are you going? What are you doing? And he said well, I'm going to carry out an order of the commander-in-chief I'm gonna tell the Pentagon to work up some plans some options And Kelly said don't do that Be crazy that's gonna create a hole that it'll get out in the Pentagon and people think we're actually get it We're not going to war with Venezuela. It's insane. Just forget you heard that don't do it and It's wild I mean I actually talked to HR McMaster about that incident and he told me Well, I can't really recall that very specific thing but things like that happened all the time Can you imagine happened all the time? And you know John Kelly. I didn't need John Kelly to tell me how to do my job. It's extraordinary actually a bit of of A response from from McMaster but that kind of stuff did happen. He you know you had These these advisers around him. We thought that they and I can't tell you how many times I hear that I had people tell me over the course of the first really two years of the Trump presidency. You think it's crazy? What's going on now? You should see the stuff that we stopped and That was what people like John Kelly thought was their rawest it was to stop Trump's destructive impulses It's the whole point of the anonymous op-ed and in book, you know the resistance within the Trump administration You know, we're here we work for the president, but we're stopping him from doing things that are really bad Well, I don't think there's any resistance anymore and while it was there, I'm not sure it was really that effective but when it's not John have you had time to think about the three adjectives you would use to describe me and I'm gonna I'm gonna add a little Twist to it. Someone asks, do you have anything positive to say? Sure? So Look I'll do words Charismatic you cannot say he's not charismatic and he's got that you know the world looks to what he's what is going on and they may look because I think he's ridiculous or because they think he's brilliant but people Are watching and they're paying attention. He's impulsive. He makes decisions based on the gut. He told me Actually told Barbara Walters back in 1987 I mean he is this something he's been thinking about for a long time. Barbara Walters said what is your plan for life? What are your big goals? He's like, I don't have a plan. It's like the prizefighters He said he going when the prize fighter goes into the ring They say go with the punches and Trump's been going with the punches all along He doesn't have you know, a ten-part plan and what he's he he goes with his gut and The Third is he got a single adjective. It's not something to do with the fact that he just loves the spotlight I mean he wants to be the center at center stage at all times Mm-hmm okay, so What about the big picture question that are you? Willing to hazard a Not a prediction But a guess about the re-election and and a question related to that is what you think. He will do post presidency okay, so I I think that first of all we should be we should have great humility when trying to figure out what's gonna happen in the 2020 presidential election because Everybody got 2016 wrong So that's my caveat, but I will say as I mentioned to you earlier I think that Donald Trump's victory in 2016 was the greatest political upset in the history of American politics I think that his reelection Would be the second biggest upset in the history of American politics. I think he has a lot going against him I'm not saying he cannot win But he has done virtually nothing to expand the group of people that would support him he has You know governed almost entirely focusing in his rhetoric and his actions On those people that already were fervently supportive of themselves. So yes, he still has most of those people in his corner But The populations change the demographics have changed and just from a demographic perspective the groups of people that more Likely are to support Donald Trump I've gotten are growing smaller and the groups of people that are more likely to despise the whole Trump have gotten bigger So I think that he and look all the polling and I wouldn't want to get you know too dependent on polling but all the polling would suggest the same thing, which is he faces an Incredibly, you know tough tough reelection fight now people the answer to that is oh well You know the polls for years ago showed the same thing. Yeah, and he won the greatest upset in American history I don't know if you do that twice. I mean Gonna be a tough race. He's got some advantages He didn't have he's got all the money in the world, which he did not have last time He has the total and thorough support of the Republican Party, which he really didn't have last time And if he doesn't have an Access Hollywood situation in the last week of the campaign You'll have that going for him too but it's gonna be a tough real luxury Well this time around I hope we get that statistical analysis by that. Yes Right. I hope you make sure we all hear about that John so I think it's time for our last question and I Think I'll just make it the last aspect of that prior question. What do you think that President Trump will do post presidency? What's his future after the White House? look I I Think the Trump will probably really enjoy himself post presidency. If it's he's still healthy and everything else because he can He can camp out at mar-a-lago He will still have the megaphone of all his social media following You know he could he could start his own television network I'm not sure he'll actually want to do that But it's certainly an idea that he'll that he'll look at it's hard for me to imagine. What a Donald Trump presidential library Looks like but I'm sure it'll be unlike any other presidential Ibraham we've ever seen But I think that Trump will actually You know he Won't go quietly This is not gonna be a case like george w bush or brock obama kind of like trying to like fade into the background and not you know not interfere he'll he'll be It'll be a loud post presidency. That's what I would say I don't know if that's good or bad. But I guess I Think we reached the end of our program time. Thank you. John And speaking to the audience our thanks to jonathan karl Chief White House correspondent and chief Washington correspondent for ABC News an author of front row at the Trump show Which is an excellent book and we encourage you to order your copy today for your local independent bookstores We also want to express our appreciation to all of our viewers joining us online The Commonwealth Club has a wide range of virtual programs coming up. So please visit our website for more information Thanks again, John. Thanks for including me in this program. And it now sir Let me just say thank you. And I really enjoyed your book I would not have known about your book if it weren't for Mick Mulvaney. So that's that's one good thing. That's Come out of all of this, but I really I really enjoyed your book and I enjoyed by talking to you You know after as I was writing the book and continuing that conversation now So I so I hope to hope to see you in person Before too long and I highly recommend everybody also to read a first-rate madness. Thank you I really appreciate that and thank you to everyone who's online with us. I'm dr. And Burns this program Thank you You
