The United States, the world's premier military
power. China, a rising power that may one day be
able to challenge the US's own, but today cannot. What if these two military giants went head
to head though, and the conflict played out on China's own shores? What if the United States decided it needed
to invade China, could China defend from a US invasion? First though, is conflict between the two
even probable? The short answer is yes, and the possibility
is frighteningly real and seemingly only growing more realistic by the day. Today these two great powers find themselves
locked in what historians have come to term Thucydides's Trap. Thucydides was an ancient Greek historian
who commented on the rise of Athens and the fall of Sparta. For a long time Sparta was the reigning power
of the Greek world, until the city-state of Athens began to rival it in terms of economy,
wealth, and military power. The end result was an inevitable war between
the two city-states and their allies, as one side- Sparta- sought to hold on to its spot
as the number one power, and Athens sought to dislodge it. If you think that's ancient history, then
consider that out of 16 instances in just the last 500 years alone of a rising power
supplanting a pre-existing great power, war broke out 12 out of 16 times. Clearly, the odds are not good that the US
and China can avoid war. To make matters worse, the seeds of conflict
between the two nations already exist in a variety of potential flashpoints. The biggest of these are Taiwan's continued
independence and China's aggressive- and illegal- expansion into the South Pacific. Eventually- most likely due to the matter
of Taiwan- a conflict between the US and China is likely, especially if China wants to prove
it really is a great power. As long as the US Navy reigns supreme in the
South Pacific, China cannot claim to be a great power and cannot influence its neighbors
the way it wishes to. For China, conflict with the US is all but
inevitable, not just a matter of national pride, but one of continued political survival
for a Communist party that finds itself increasingly isolated from the outside world by growing
democratic movements along its borders. So what if the worse came to worse, could
the US successfully invade China? The US's greatest asset is the presence of
its forces all around the world thanks to defense agreements with partners and allies. This is a mutually beneficial arrangement,
as it provides a boost to the hosting nation's economy and ensures its continued defense
in the case of war. For the US though, it has the added benefit
of allowing it to stage forces all around the world and quickly react to a conflict. American forces with their wide network of
military installations and partnerships with nations all over the globe allow them a degree
of flexibility and mobility that no other nation can even come close to matching. In a war against China, the US would rely
on its Pacific bases to prosecute the conflict. Spurred on by China's growing aggressiveness
against its neighbors in the South Pacific, President Obama launched a strategy of encirclement,
much like that employed so successfully against the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Today this means that US forces are deployed,
or can deploy, from bases in Japan, the Philippines, Guam, South Korea, Singapore, Australia, and
even Thailand. Plotted on a map, this clearly shows how American
military power is posed to contain China no matter in which direction it attempts to move
its own military. The reverse is also true. The wide dispersion of US power in the South
Pacific allows it to use military force against China from multiple avenues of approach, forcing
Chinese defenses to spread out amongst a host of potential threat vectors. However, the primary purpose of US encirclement
is not to start hostilities, but rather to respond to them or prevent them altogether. China's chief strategic problem is that it
relies on overseas routes for most of its trade, with up to 60% of all Chinese trade
passing through the South Pacific. Current US force predisposition has the foot
of the US military poised straight on the jugular of Chinese trade, and it would not
take much pressure to shut that trade off and send China into an economic collapse. In case of war, this is exactly what would
happen. US forces would immediately begin a naval
and air blockade of all Chinese trade, boxing in the Chinese navy all the way from the Malacca
Straits to the Sea of Japan. While the Chinese navy now for the first time
in history outnumbers the US's own navy, it largely lacks a capability to operate far
from its own shores and is best suited for coastal defense. This would make it impossible for China to
send a naval expeditionary force to the Malacca Straits and secure them for its trade ships. Then there's the added complication of US
allies and partners in the area, who would indubitably join the US side in the conflict. Chinese ships trying to leave their territorial
waters would find themselves threatened on all sides, on top of having to deal with the
formidable American Pacific fleet. At the same time that US ships are blocking
off Chinese trade though, the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force would saturate US bases
in Guam, South Korea, Japan, and possibly even the Philippines. These attacks would overwhelm american missile
defenses and cause considerable damage, requiring weeks of repair to bring them back into operational
status. This huge missile volley would greatly delay
US offensive operations by both its air and naval fleets, not to mention the preparation
of any sort of invasion force. However, it would also greatly anger the nations
that host US forces, as missiles like the DF-21 ballistic missile have a margin of error
that can be as much as several hundred meters. Missiles would be destroying not just US forces,
but also Japanese, South Korean, and Filipino military assets and even civilians. This would further cement support for US action
against China. The Chinese missile stockpile numbers in the
thousands, but it is ultimately finite, and military facilities can always be repaired
faster than that missile stockpile can be replenished. Not to mention that long before a second volley
can be fired, US forces would have moved to heavily damage China's command and control
assets. In the opening of the war, American stealth
bombers would strike at Chinese long range surveillance radar, command and control nodes,
and precision missile systems deep inside the country. These attacks would be mirrored by a missile
barrage nearly as large as China's own being launched by America's large submarine fleet,
most of which are capable of carrying long-range land-attack cruise missiles. While China may be able to hold the US surface
navy at bay with its rocket forces for a few weeks- possibly even a few months- the US
submarine force would be impossible to target with those same rocket forces, and given China's
extreme lack of anti-submarine warfare assets, the American silent service would all but
have the run of China's coast. American stealth aircraft and submarine forces
would continue striking deep into China, destroying air defense networks, satellite communication
nodes, and other vital facilities for coordinating China's ability to threaten the American navy. US stealth bomber losses would no doubt be
very high, potentially knocking the entire fleet of 20 US B-2 bombers out of commission
within the first few weeks. Air attacks would then have to rely on unmanned
drones supplemented by submarine cruise missile strikes, but eventually Chinese defenses would
be eroded enough to allow B-1 and even B-52 strategic bombers to begin to soften up Chinese
coastal defenses. Going any further inland would likely be fatal
for B-1s and B-52s at even this stage of the war, with the Chinese Air Force suppressed
but very much still capable. Escorting those non-stealthy bombers however
would be American F-22 Raptors and F-35s, which would operate from repaired facilities
in Japan and South Korea. While the US would suffer losses to both its
F-22 and F-35 fleets, the loss ratio would be extremely favorable. After a few weeks of air operations, enough
of China's air defenses and most formidable of its fighter aircraft would have been thinned
out to allow non-stealthy US Air Force F-15s and Navy F-18s to join the fight, considerably
boosting the presence of American combat aircraft. American air forces are not just more capable
than China's, but considerably larger as well, with 13,264 total aircraft versus China's
3,210. Of those aircraft, the US operates nearly
double as many combat aircraft as China, at 2,085 versus 1,232. To make matters worse for China, US aircraft
are overwhelmingly more modern and capable, and its pilots more experienced. China may have the homefield advantage, but
the US would dominate the air and sea war within a few months, putting a stranglehold
on China economically. In the real world, this is the limit of the
US's plans for a war with China: destroy its navy and air force and strangle it economically
into submission. In today's scenario though, we're taking this
a step further. Preparation for an invasion of China would
take many months, and require the mustering of most of the US's amphibious forces. If the US wanted to gather an invasion force
and maintain its global commitments as they stand today, it would need to institute a
national draft, which could potentially see it add up to 145 million additional personnel
to its military. However, China's 1.3 billion strong population
could muster up a defensive force of 753 million, though with its much smaller military budget,
a floundering economy due to the US's stranglehold on its trade, and damage on its infrastructure
caused by American air and naval attacks, China would only realistically be able to
train and equip a small percentage of this number. Likewise, the US would only be able to equip
a small percentage of its own reservists, leaving the numbers advantage firmly in Chinese
hands. The US has always had the capability to move
forces around in large numbers relatively fast, but in recent years it has greatly increased
its expeditionary capabilities, adding a number of mobile landing platforms, afloat forward
staging bases, and amphibious assault ships. Today, the US maintains three Marine Expeditionary
Forces- it's primary force dedicated to kicking down the door on hostile beaches all over
the world. Each Force can bring to an enemy's shore between
20,000 and 90,000 marines and sailors. These would quickly be supplemented by US
Army expeditionary forces, though they would require longer to assemble, prepare, and transport
to a hostile Chinese beach. Initially, American Marines would be forced
to hold the beach alone, though they would not be able to land in their full numbers
all at the same time. Not wishing to spread themselves too thin,
and with US air and naval power only capable of carving out a very small slice of safety
on hostile Chinese beaches, US forces may at best approach the numbers of the amphibious
assault in Normandy, averaging between 15,000 and 20,000 personnel per day. This would require a full three and a half
days for an entire Marine Expeditionary Force to make the beach. This would leave 20,000 Marines with the unenviable
task of holding a narrow strip of beach against a People's Liberation Army of around 975,000-
not counting reservists and conscripts. Even with air superiority achieved, US and
allied aircraft could not hope to hold at bay the vast numbers of Chinese ground troops,
and it's likely that even before the first Marine Expeditionary Force could completely
offload onto the beach, the Marines holding them would have been thrown back out into
the ocean. Sheer numbers alone make an invasion of the
Chinese mainland completely impossible for even the technologically superior US, and
it would require the unloading of an entire Marine Expeditionary Force in one single landing
to secure a foothold against the vast numbers of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. This is precisely why the United States has
no plans of invading China, and instead plans on simply destroying the Chinese navy and
air force while blockading it economically in the case of war. Want to find out how the US Navy plans to
defeat China? Watch US Navy Must Do This To Defeat China
In War! Or check out this other video instead!
