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way to victory right now! Hour 1 (Have this always appear as a full-screen
slide in big red numbers over a black background) In the Pacific, a Chinese amphibious invasion
force steams out of civilian and military ports along the eastern Chinese coast. The massive fleet is a mix of military and
civilian ships, including commercial ferries with reinforced ramps to allow them to on
and offload heavy military vehicles. This first wave of invaders is 35,000 strong,
and many more tens of thousands of soldiers are waiting for their turn to make the 100
mile journey to Taiwan. Chinese frigates scour the waters of the Taiwan
strait on the hunt for American or Taiwanese submarines- a formal declaration of war against
Taiwan is being declared as the ships cut through the waves, and though no declaration
of war against the United States is prepared, it's fully expected that the United States
will honor its commitment to defend Taiwan from invasion. Any sub in the Taiwan strait that doesn't
belong to the People's Liberation Army Navy will be considered hostile and fired upon. A world away, Russian forces staging out of
Belarus and the Western military district launch an offensive into the Baltic countries. The featureless, flat plains of East Europe
are perfect tank country, and favor the attacker, with few natural features to build defenses
on. Overhead, a barrage of missiles preempts the
crossing of Russian troops into NATO territory. Hundreds of ballistic and cruise missiles
fly across Eastern Europe, aimed at NATO airfields, supply depots, and troop staging areas. AEGIS ashore facilities and other anti-missile
defenses begin to light up the sky with their own counter-fire. The average success rate of missile defense
systems averages between 50 and 60%, but that still means over a hundred missiles find their
targets, cratering air fields, destroying fuel depots, and killing hundreds on the ground. But NATO hasn't been blind to the buildup
of military troops by Russia, and the moment the first wave of missile strikes are detected
and still in the air, NATO responds accordingly. The skies are so crowded with missiles for
a few minutes that it's unsafe for NATO or Russia's combat air patrols to operate in
the region, and they take to low altitude for safety. NATO's missiles have better precision than
Russian missiles, but Russian missile defenses are slightly more effective than NATO's. In the Pacific, China launches nearly six
hundred missiles in the span of an hour, the largest missile barrage in human history. These missiles target Taiwan's military and
civilian airfields, hangars, command and control nodes, and electric power plants. However, a significant number of them also
target American air bases in Guam, Japan, and South Korea. American and Taiwanese missile defenses put
up a brave fight, but the overwhelming fire is too much and many of the missiles find
their marks. Guam is cratered by ballistic missile strikes,
and America's largest military base in the Pacific is temporarily knocked out of commission. Thousands die on the ground. Further missile attacks target American naval
vessels operating in the Pacific. China has needed four months to prepare its
amphibious assault fleet, giving the world plenty of time to prepare for the coming war. The US now operates four carrier groups in
the Pacific, with a fifth in reserve along the American west coast. As American satellites detect the start of
the Chinese attack, a warning is sent across the entire American Pacific fleet. The carriers now move at full speed, taking
random and aggressive turns- all in an attempt to throw off the targeting of China's missiles. American cyber and electronic warfare operations
however are already underway, targeting China's recon and targeting assets. They succeed in degrading the accuracy of
China's missiles, but the sheer number of them still make them a serious threat. As the missiles re-enter the atmosphere at
several thousand miles an hour, American missile defenses put up a wall of lead and steel,
with escort cruisers knocking out Chinese missiles with their own SM-3 missiles. When the smoke clears, one American carrier
has been sunk, two have been seriously damaged. The third has suffered only minor damage. Many of the carrier group escorts however
are severely damaged or sunk. The US Navy has just experienced the largest
single day loss of life in its history. Hour 2 On the ground in Eastern Europe, Russian forces
are making contact with the first line of NATO defenses. The NATO Rapid Response Force has dug in best
as it can along the eastern flank of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, but the flat ground doesn't
give much defensive advantage to NATO. NATO tanks are on the whole more modern and
more capable than Russian tanks thanks to crippling sanctions imposed on Russia after
its annexation of Crimea in 2014, and additional sanctions in 2022 after its invasion of Ukraine. Other than destroying the Russian economy,
the blockade of computer chips from major manufacturers such as Taiwan have been a devastating
blow to a military already suffering from worn out and poorly maintained equipment. This has had a cascading effect across the
Russian military, as much of the smart tech of modern militaries relies heavily on computer
components which Russia is now forced to manufacture domestically. Everything from modern anti-tank missiles
to air-to-air missiles, and even fire control radars have a limited reserve supply, and
must be applied judiciously. The T-72 still makes up the bulk of Russian
forces, though in preparation for war several thousand Cold War era tanks have been activated. These tanks suffer from serious deficiencies
against modern weapons, and are largely used as cannon fodder by the Russians. Scores of T-55s, T-62s and T-64s smash into
NATO defenses, soaking up anti-tank fire while more modern T-72s, T-80s and T-90s mop up
exhausted defenders. Casualties are horrendous for the Russians,
but they have plenty of outdated equipment to throw into the fight. NATO's tanks are far more capable than most
Russian tanks, but they're also more expensive and significantly fewer in number. The United States is still in the process
of shipping the bulk of its armored forces to Europe, but it'll be several weeks yet
before significant amounts of American armor is ready for combat. For now, Europe must hold the line long enough
for the US to bring its full firepower into the fight, assisted ofcourse by a few thousand
advance American forces stationed in Europe. Combat in the air is just as intense as on
the ground. Within minutes of the war's start, both side's
air forces took to the skies. Russian Migs are capable aircraft, but again
facing serious modernity problems from a lack of funding. However, while the Russian army has a reputation
earned in Ukraine for poor tactics, communications, and performance, the Russian air force remains
a competent and credible threat to NATO. Both sides are unable to bring the full power
of their air forces to bear against each other. For NATO planes, the threat comes from Russia's
numerous air defense batteries, which operate close to the front lines and can even threaten
NATO planes from within Russia's borders. The S-400 system ranks amongst the best air
defense systems in the world, and is lethal to NATO's 4th and 4.5 generation fighters. At intermediate and close range, numerous
self-propelled air defense guns shore up S-400 and older S-300 defenses. NATO on the other hand relies heavily on fighters
and interceptors for air defense, whom themselves are at risk from Russian ground-based defenses. However, NATO enjoys one distinct advantage
over Russia- the F-35 stealth fighter and America's fleet of F-22 air supremacy fighters. Unfortunately, only a few hundred F-35s are
capable of combat operations across the NATO alliance, and most of those are from the United
States. The vaunted F-22, most capable air supremacy
fighter in the world, is also in very low numbers- and most of them are being diverted
to bases in the Pacific for the sea and air war against China. Entire fleets of American aircraft are already
making the Atlantic crossing with the aid of tanker planes, but it'll be a day or two
yet before they're ready for combat ops. Europe's lack of stealth fighters means they can't
safely operate near the front lines, temporarily giving the air advantage to Russia. Russia presses that advantage as best it can,
but carrying out strike missions over the front lines is still hazardous business for
its air force. Russian bombers devastate NATO defenses, but
take casualties of their own. Long range stand-off attacks via air launched
cruise missiles help keep Russian pilots out of harm's way. NATO responds with its own long-range strikes,
but for now the air over the front belongs to Russia. Attack helicopters from both sides fight ground
defenses and each other all across the front. It'll take time yet for NATO to gather its
forces, and the numbers advantage is once more in Russia's favor. Still, both sides suffer heavy losses of air
cavalry to man-portable air defense weapons and traditional air defenses both. As the second hour of World War III comes
to a close, a massive offensive out of the military enclave of Kaliningrad pushes into
NATO defenses in southern Lithuania. Further cruise and ballistic missile attacks
rain out of Kaliningrad and into it from NATO return fire. The overwhelming amount of NATO firepower
aimed at Kaliningrad quickly shuts down any hope of conducting air operations out of the
enclave, but it is still a strongpoint of tens of thousands of Russian troops and armor
who are manning defenses along the Polish border while a separate thrust north into
Lithuania seeks to destroy NATO forces there. Russia's hope is to sever NATO from the baltic
countries, and there's little the alliance can do to prevent that at the moment. Hour 3 In the Pacific, the Chinese navy has begun
bombardment of the Penghu islands, silencing naval defenses there. The massive amphibious assault force has crossed
most of the Taiwan strait, and the island fortress nation is now in sight. Overhead, Chinese fighters battle Taiwan's
rapidly diminishing air force for supremacy, while other strike aircraft carry out SEAD
operations- or suppression of enemy air defenses. Taiwan is equipped with very robust air defenses
courtesy of America, and they take a heavy toll on Chinese aircraft. China has over 2,000 combat aircraft however,
and is easily able to absorb the punishment. Lurking under the waves though, the Chinese
fleet runs into a coordinated Taiwanese and American ambush. US and Taiwanese subs have been powered down,
lurking silently and awaiting the fleet's approach, and now with the lead ships in range,
they begin to open up on the Chinese navy. Each submarine acts independently, but with
attacks coming from multiple direction there's little the Chinese ships can do to avoid destruction. Chinese anti-submarine warfare aircraft have
been patrolling the strait for hours now, but the Chinese navy's anti-submarine warfare
capabilities have serious deficiencies. Their biggest problem though is that they're
up against American Virginia class submarines and Taiwan's electric-diesel boats, both extremely
quiet craft. Multiple Chinese vessels are sunk or heavily
damaged, and in the chaos the invasion fleet spreads so as to avoid becoming an easy target-
and that's when they run into hundreds of anti-ship mines deployed in advance by the
Taiwanese navy. The cost to the Chinese navy is staggering,
a satisfying payback for the losses the US navy suffered during China's ballistic missile
barrage, but the sheer number of Chinese vessels means the invasion will carry on. Exposed by their attacks, the submarines make
for a quick exit from the strait- they won't all make it, as Chinese destroyers and ASW
aircraft score several hits. Hour 4 The air battle over Eastern Europe intensifies
as both sides continue carrying SEAD operations against the other. For NATO, establishing air dominance is of
critical importance as it's the best way to support outnumbered troops on the ground. Keeping NATO aircraft off the front is just
as important for the Russian military to ensure the success of their ground forces. Without air superiority, the advantage is
in Russian hands. Knowing that they couldn't guarantee the safety
of strike aircraft against NATO's technologically advanced military, Russia has placed a focus
on ground fire support platforms over air platforms. Russian infantry is typically supported by
far greater amounts of artillery than a comparable NATO unit, allowing them to bring far greater
amounts of firepower to support their advance. In an environment currently lethal to strike
aircraft, this gives Russia a sizable advantage at the front. However, this strategy also comes with serious
limitations. Russian forces are unable to exploit openings
in the enemy's defenses for fear of outrunning their ground-based fire support and air defenses. As NATO forces reel from the Russian assault
and fall back, NATO war planes patiently wait for any Russian forces foolish enough to advance
too quickly for their air defenses to protect. The Ukrainian war highlighted serious command
and control issues for the Russian military, and while steps have been taken to correct
the problem, Russian forces facing full on electronic warfare from NATO and often out
of contact with leadership for long periods of time, occasionally move out of step with
the rest of the advance. Those that do are immediately pounced on by
NATO ground strike aircraft, who circle behind the front like hungry sharks. The bulk of the Russian force however maintains
operational integrity and moves at a predetermined maximum advance rate so as to keep under the
protection of their ground-based fire support and air defenses. This makes the advance slow and predictable
though, a fact that the vastly outnumbered NATO forces take full advantage of. Heavily damaged NATO units are able to withdraw
and avoid full destruction, allowing them to regroup and redeploy. However, NATO has its own issues. Russian electronic warfare capabilities are
wreaking havoc on NATO communications, and the fact that the alliance speaks over two
dozen different languages creates great difficulty coordinating the various components of the
NATO defense force. English and French are the official languages
of NATO, and most senior officers know one or both of them to ensure continuity of operations-
but as communications are degraded and casualties mount, a lack of understanding makes it difficult
for smaller units to operate together on the battlefield. The alliance is reeling from the onslaught
and slowly but steadily losing ground. In the Pacific, American air power has yet
to make an entry into the fight over Taiwan. Runways across South Korea, Japan and even
the Philippines face ongoing strikes from long range Chinese missiles. The attacks have largely grounded US air forces
in the region, but they have come at a high cost by galvanizing Japan to join the fight. South Korea maintains neutrality despite attacks
on two US bases in its country and the death of some South Korean civilians and military
personnel in the strikes. They are too preoccupied with a possible North
Korean invasion instead. The Philippines remain similarly neutral despite
their defense pact with the United States, wary of joining the US against China. Countries all across the South Pacific are
delaying their decisions on which side to back, as confidence in a US victory is shaken
by the losses incurred by America in the opening hours of the conflict. There is growing doubt that the US will be
able to effectively fight off the Chinese assault as China's navy and rocket forces
keep US forces at bay indefinitely. Backing the US now could have disastrous consequences
in a new world order in the Pacific led by China. Australia however is fully committed to its
mutual defense pact with the US, and its forces prepare for deployment into the South Pacific. However, neither Japan or Australia undertake
any major air operations against China, instead ensuring territorial integrity and patrolling
against any Chinese aerial incursion. Despite fears China would attack disputed
Japanese islands though, there is no attack as the nation's focus is strictly on its pending
invasion of Taiwan. Hour 5 Shore-based defenses rain hell on a swarm
of Chinese amphibious assault vessels. The battle for Taiwan is on. China has decided to hit three different beaches
simultaneously, two in the north and one in the south of the island. Because of the difficult undersea geography
and suitability of the island's coast, there's only a few beaches where an amphibious assault
is possible- and Taiwan has invested billions in their defense. Chinese forces first hit Gold beach- the codeword
for a landing site outside of Taoyuan City. Shore-based batteries and mobile artillery
open up on the approaching landing craft. Missiles streak into the sky, targeting the
amphibious assault ships and their escorts over a dozen miles off shore. Landing craft and amphibious vehicles are
being sunk by the dozens before the first finally makes it to the beach. By the time the first Chinese soldier steps
foot on the Taiwanese mainland, six hundred of his compatriots have already been killed
or drowned. He doesn't fare much better, almost immediately
gunned down by a hidden machine gun nest. A barrage of grenades destroy his landing
craft, and all the men inside it. But there's many more landing craft coming. Gradually the lead elements of the assault
make successful landfall, but as the bulk of the assault force crosses an invisible
line, the ocean suddenly erupts in flames. Hidden along the seafloor are long pipes through
which the defenders pump raw oil. The oil floats to the surface before being
set on fire, creating a raging inferno that floats along the top of the waves. The heat kills dozens of Chinese soldiers
even from inside the protection of their landing crafts. Large, fan-powered landing ships carrying
armored vehicles catch on fire and begin to sink as their rubber skirts deflate. Losses are horrendous, but still the assault
keeps on coming. Overhead, Chinese strike aircraft do what
they can to neutralize the island's defenders, wiping out artillery positions with precision
guided weapons. However, many of these planes don't survive
their attack run, blown out of the sky by Taiwan's robust air defenses. But the Chinese military has more planes than
Taiwan has air defenses, and inevitably air defense sites are destroyed one by one through
a combination of missile strikes and bombing runs. !!!РАЗРЫВ!!! (16.01)
Taiwan's best defenses are its mobile defenses, self-propelled artillery and short-range air
defense batteries. These prove difficult to track and pin down,
and are a deadly threat to scout aircraft trying to sniff them out. Taiwan's own air force rises to the occasion,
but it's hopelessly outnumbered. Regardless, the island's defenders continue
to put aircraft into the sky, operating from highways as most airfields in the country
have by now been damaged or effectively shut down. A half hour after the assault on Gold beach
begins, the Chinese open a second front directly north of Taipei. This assault meets with equally intense resistance,
and huge Type 072 landing ships with bellyfulls of tanks and infantry fighting vehicles race
to the beach. The second assault forces Taiwan to split
its reserves as it rushes to ensure the Chinese can't gain a foothold, but Chinese air strikes
are making it difficult to quickly move troops around. A volley of missiles fly out from the beach
and smash into the lead Type 072, causing massive damage to the ship and sinking it. The wrecked ship, heavily laden with troops
and equipment, sinks quickly in the shallow water, and a second landing ship runs straight
into the wreck, tearing its hull open. It too will sink in less than a minute, creating
an artificial barrier for other ships. Regardless though more ships continue the
assault and despite the withering fire, manage to make it to the beach. Ramps at their front open and Chinese tanks
and IFVs begin to pour out, to be immediately met by a flurry of American-made Javelin anti-tank
missiles. Reactive armor on Chinese tanks tries to deflect
the incoming warheads, but are largely unsuccessful against one of the most sophisticated tank-killing
weapons in the world- and the US has provided thousands to Taiwan in anticipation of this
invasion. A dozen miles away, Chinese air assault forces
zip towards the coast in assault helicopters. To avoid air defenses, the pilots are flying
at just above wave top height in a daredevil sprint to get past the beaches. The moment they near land though they're forced
to pull up to clear trees and buildings, which makes them easy targets for shoulder-fired
air defense weapons. Numerous Chinese helicopters are blown out
of the sky, but many make it to their destination- public squares and large parking lots predesignated
as air assault zones before the invasion. Chinese troops rush to secure defensive positions
and coordinate. Their job is to seize key infrastructure across
the invasion front and put pressure on the defender's flanks. Taiwan counters with its mobile reserves,
specifically kept out of the fighting for just this reason. At several landing sites, Chinese troops are
slaughtered as they're quickly overwhelmed, but the Chinese air assault manages to hold
on to a few of its landing zones. The surviving assault helicopter fleet is
already well on its way to the mainland and amphibious assault ships offshore to pick
up more reinforcements. Taiwan holds the beaches, but under intense
air attack they will be unable to fend Chinese troops off for long. Hour 6 Somewhere deep behind Russian lines, a series
of explosions lights up the early morning sky. Critical air defense radar immediately goes
offline. More explosions thirty miles away eliminate
a Russian command post. Flying at tens of thousands of feet over war-torn
eastern Europe, two American B-2s secretly forward-deployed to Europe make their way
back to friendly lines. They've flown a zig-zag course to their targets,
always presenting their stealthiest sides to enemy radar. Russian radar technicians picked up intermittent
contacts of... something... but were unable to provide a firing solution to air defenses. On the way back to friendly lines though,
the B-2s are slightly more visible to ground and airborne radar, and several interceptors
are vectored in on their approximate location. As they near the B-2s their radars struggle
to get a weapons quality lock as the B-2s take evasive actions and defeat enemy radar
by angling away from it. Still, it's only a matter of time before Russian
Migs have sniffed out the general location of the bombers and closed in enough that no
amount of stealth technology can prevent a good lock. Suddenly the lead Mig picks up a missile lock
warning. Instinctively, he dives his plane, picking
up speed and hoping to confuse the incoming missile with ground clutter. There's more warnings across the fleet of
incoming interceptors as the Migs attempt to scramble. The diving Migs desperately try to outmaneuver
or outrun the incoming missiles, but the short detection range spells doom for many of the
pilots. One by one Migs are blown out of the sky,
with a few surviving and backing off the vulnerable B-2s. Somewhere in the dawn sky, a formation of
American F-35s wheels to cover the B-2's retreat. They are some of the few operational F-35s
NATO has in service, and though deadly to Russian air defenses, are too few in number
to significantly alter the air war. The B-2s must also be used judiciously, they
too are too few in number to significantly damage Russia's ability to fight. Hour 24 It's been one day since the start of the third
world war. The Sino-Russian alliance has pushed NATO
back significantly in the baltic states as America rushes to recall troops on leave and
prepare to embark reinforcements to Europe. It'll take weeks for the US to be ready for
ground operations, even with the world's largest logistical fleet preparing around the clock
flights to Europe. NATO is rushing to marshal a response force
in Poland as the Polish military reinforces its defenses on its border with Russian-held
Ukraine and Kaliningrad. After a day of fierce fighting, it's not expected
that NATO will hold on to its Baltic allies for long, though that was always expected. NATO navies have initiated a string of anti-submarine
defenses that stretch from Greenland to Iceland and the UK to help safeguard US troop ships
as the first rushed reinforcements begin to load onto ships on the US east and Gulf coasts. In the Baltic sea, fierce fighting between
NATO ships and the Russian navy has kept Russian naval firepower at bay. As it has so often found itself throughout
history, Russia is unable to put its fleets to sea, outnumbered and outgunned by superior
NATO navies. French and Spanish aircraft carriers have
moved into the Mediterranean and are steaming towards the Black Sea where the Turkish navy
has been securing the Bosphorus Strait and cutting it off to Russian trade. From the Black Sea NATO ships can harass Russia's
southern flank with long-range missile and air strikes, though they face stiff defenses
based out of Crimea In the Pacific, the US Navy and Air Force
have yet to stage a counterattack against Chinese forces. Ongoing missile attacks have kept the US fleet
far out at sea and out of range of launching their own attacks. Losses continue to mount as Chinese land-based
missile strikes seek out American ships and sink or cripple them. However, the number of missiles in the Chinese
inventory is rapidly diminishing. On Taiwan, the first two beach assaults have
failed, leading China to cancel the assaults. Over five thousand Chinese soldiers lie dead
on or just off Taiwan's northern beaches. Chinese air assaults have met with similar
failures, but thanks to fierce air support two of the landing sites remain in Chinese
control. It's cost the Chinese air force dearly though,
with over 50 aircraft destroyed in the first day of fighting alone. Across the island, Chinese special forces,
inserted secretly onto the island prior to the invasion, have struck out at Taiwanese
political and military leadership. Several prominent politicians are either under
arrest or dead. Efforts to evacuate senior Taiwanese leadership
to the mainland where they can be used for propaganda purposes have ended in failure,
and Taiwan's president remains out of grasp of Chinese kill teams. Rather than allow Taiwan to recapture officials,
Chinese special forces execute them. Hour 48 Tankers have been escorting US fighter and
bomber aircraft across the Pacific non-stop for the last two days. The bulk of the US air forces are now stationed
in civilian and military airfields across Japan, as the Japanese self-defense forces
successfully fend off the worst of China's continued, but diminished missile attacks. Losses to US aircraft on the ground remain
significant, but enough aircraft are operational to begin offensive operations. The Chinese fleet has re-initiated amphibious
assaults against Taiwan under the cover of a vicious air campaign. Most of Taiwan's air defenses have been neutralized
by now, including the majority of the Taiwanese air force. However, as the assault commences, Chinese
airborne radar detects a massive air assault of F-15 and F-18s, backed up with multiple
tankers and EWACS for support. The F-18s have been launched from the surviving
Pacific carriers and ferried to their destination with the support of drone tankers. The US Air Force's F-15s have been flying
for hours from Japanese air bases, accompanied by their Japanese allies. The US and Japanese tanker fleet has remained
in orbit around the seas south of Japan, topping off the massive air fleet and ready to help
fuel-starved combatants to return home. The largest air battle of modern war is about
to begin. Chinese interceptors move to defend the amphibious
assault from both the northern and eastern air assault. China's lack of aircraft carriers forces the
fighters to remain close to Taiwan's shore, which exposes them to surviving air defense
units, forcing the Chinese to turn on afterburners and try and meet the American and Japanese
forces out at sea. There's another reason for trying to close
the distance as rapidly as possible, and it becomes apparent as the first missile lock
warnings ring out across the cockpits of Chinese fighters. Stealthy F-22s and F-35s are leading the assault,
launching new generation long-range air to air missiles at the Chinese jets. The result is dramatic, as Chinese fighters
are forced to dive and try to juke off the American missiles. With two missiles fired at each hostile, many
Chinese fighters fail to shake off their missiles and are splashed. But stealth fighters have one inherent weakness-
they have a very low missile capacity due to the need to carry all weapons internally. Spent even before making visual contact, the
F-22s are forced to turn around- but the F-35s press the attack. Their data link capabilities allow them to
guide non-stealthy fighter's weapons to targets, while keeping the vulnerable 4th generation
fighters away from enemy jets. Another wave of missiles scream across the
sky, guided by F-35s that the Chinese are having difficulty picking up on radar. But the Chinese have an improved air to air
missile with a range in excess of 200 miles, and they launch their own volleys back at
the Americans and Japanese. They can't target the F-35s yet, but the f-18s
and F15s give off massive radar returns, and are easy prey for the improved Chinese missiles. Friendly aircraft tumble out of the sky as
the Chinese press into visual range of the attack. The F-35s immediately break off, they are
not built for close quarters combat. The F-15s and F-18s however are. Chinese J-10s, J-16s, and Su-30s are fine
aircraft, but the F-15 fighting eagle has proven it is the superior machine in conflicts
around the world. For every F-15 downed, four enemy aircraft
are splashed. The battle is far from decisive, but American
and Japanese strike aircraft are able to penetrate Chinese air cover and deliver devastating
blows to the assembled Chinese fleet . Air defenses have a difficult time taking out
the attacking aircraft thanks to their use of long range stand-off attack munitions. Missile defenses do their best to fend off
the attack, and succeed with a kill rate of about 60%. However, many Chinese ships are still struck
and either sunk or rendered combat ineffective. By the end of the second day of fighting,
America has finally struck back in an inconclusive air battle that saw both sides take steep
losses. It's fleet of stealthy F-22s and F-35s however
remains largely intact, but it's feared that there are simply too few to carry the fight. Conspicuously, China's Chengdu J-20 has yet
to make an appearance on the battlefield. Despite its setback in the air, China has
managed to secure a beachhead on Taiwan. Now the unloading of the massive Chinese army
can begin- but Taiwanese resistance is far from broken. Over in Europe, NATO forces in the baltic
states are exhausted and overwhelmed, with many surrendering to the Russians. It'll be a few days yet, but Russia is on
the verge of reclaiming lost Soviet territories. However, the war is far from over, and NATO
will quickly be capable of launching massive ground assaults against Russia, starting with
Kaliningrad. Hour 72 Fierce fighting rages in the major cities
of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, but NATO's 40,000 strong response force has been neutralized
by Russian forces. The cost has been steep, but with conventional
forces largely defeated in the Baltics, the massive Russian war machine begins to swing
south towards Kaliningrad, which has been decimated by ongoing missile attacks. The battle for the heart of Europe will commence
in days as NATO uses Poland as a staging ground for its counterattack. In the Pacific, US losses of ships and aircraft
are steep, and additional material from the US's other global commands is being rushed
to the Pacific. However, Chinese losses are even steeper. In a race of attrition, China will ultimately
lose- hence it is vital that Taiwan be captured as quickly as possible. US forces however have begun a naval blockade
of China, cutting it off from its naval trade routes. Sensing an opportunity to seriously weaken
its regional rival, India joins in the blockade, sealing China off from importing the oil and
natural gas it desperately needs. Land supply routes to Russia are still available,
but the steep drop in supply causes energy prices to skyrocket. Like Russia discovered in Ukraine, Taiwanese
resistance to hostile invaders is stiff and deadly. Chinese troops are engaged in fierce street
fighting, with civilian militias taking up arms provided by the government against the
invaders. The Taiwanese people have no desire to be
a part of Xi Jipning's China, and they make the People's Liberation Army pay dearly for
every inch of Taiwan they take. Hour 168 Across Chinese social media, images of the
ghastly cost of the Taiwan invasion are being spread. Taiwanese and American cyberwarfare agents
have managed to penetrate the Chinese great firewall, and now photos and videos of the
devastation in Taiwan are being spread faster than Chinese censors can stop it. The Chinese people have for generations been
told that a conquest of Taiwan would be easy and bloodless, but the high cost in terms
of human lives is now clear for all of China to see. The Chinese communist party has used the state
media apparatus to lie about casualty figures, reporting only a trickle of casualties each
day hoping to keep public outrage down. Anger and outrage quickly builds. In Europe, NATO's second response force has
engaged Russian forces across the length of the Polish border. Russian air defense batteries have been greatly
attrited through ongoing strikes against them, but the cost has been high for the pilots
of Europe's air forces. American stealth aircraft are badly needed
in the Pacific, and the job of suppressing Russian air defenses falls on Europe's largely
non-stealthy air force. The outcome of World War III will be decided
in Poland and Taiwan. Hour 336 Two weeks after the start of World War 3,
the momentum of the Russian war machine has begun to stall out in light of stiff and well
organized resistance by NATO forces. The invasion of Ukraine has proven that the
much feared Russian military juggernaut is a clumsy giant, defeated more by its own ineptitude
than foreign military power. While western armies place a strong emphasis
on logistics, Russian military forces have approximately 25% the logistics personnel
of NATO militaries. This means massive convoys of Russian vehicles
stuck on the side of roads and highways, starved of fuel and ammunition. Russian troops, especially its conscript force,
is suffering from catastrophically low morale as they come under fire from advanced NATO
weapon systems. Surrenders of entire units are growing increasingly
common, and the high casualties are causing massive political dissent back home. Strong-handed police tactics against anti-war
protesters can barely restrain the tide of malcontent sweeping Russia, and Vladimir Putin's
hold on power grows more tenuous by the day. While the Russian attack hasn't been repelled,
it has been ground to a halt just inside Poland's borders. The arrival of large American army units on
the continent marks the beginning of offensive operations for NATO, and the future looks
grim for a Russian military suffering from bad equipment, low morale, and terrible logistics. The Russian air force however continues to
perform well, though equipment and maintenance short falls have begun affecting it as well. Slowly but surely NATO's European air forces
have wrestled control of the skies away from Russia, and over the coming day Russian front-line
units will be exposed to the full wrath of NATO air support. In the Pacific, China has maintained its hold
on the western half of Taiwan, but at a staggering cost. Over 15,000 Chinese troops are dead or wounded,
but the Chinese Communist Party works hard to keep these figures hidden from an increasingly
angry Chinese public. They were promised a swift victory over the
tiny island, and that the United States could be defeated in the Pacific with China's advanced
missiles and aircraft. Neither of these have proven true, and while
the US has suffered massive losses of ships and planes, it is able to replenish losses
faster than the Chinese navy and air force. Taiwan's defenders have so far repelled China's
attempts to push through to the east of the island, and now American marines are arriving
in force. To the world's great surprise, US Marines
are backed up by Japanese troops, who have revoked their pacifist constitution in the
name of regional defense against an aggressive China. But it's not just the Japanese joining the
US in defending Taiwan, as the Australians join America in defense of the Pacific. China, alone in the region with no friends,
is now facing the monumental task of defeating three major powers simultaneously. As losses mount for the Sino-Russian alliance,
both presidents Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin consider their final option. Nuclear power is the great equalizer, and
the one way that Russia can overcome NATO's overmatch of its own military forces. But for every one strike that Russia or China
may undertake, NATO will respond with two in an escalatory ladder that will end with
the world in ashes. Thanks again to our sponsor Conflict of Nations,
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Let's find out in October of 2022.
Just my opinion, but:
Minute 2: China can't declare war on Taiwan as it considers Taiwan to be part of china, hence they would consider this an entirely domestic operation. This means they need a pretext to attack what they say is one of their provinces. Also, it's not just subs, US surface ships would be nearby and ready to jump in.
Minute 3: Nagorno-Karabakh and the invasion of Ukraine have shown how bad an idea it is to roll tanks over ground with no cover from shoulder fired anti tank missiles, and to use tanks against opponents capable of deploying loitering munitions. The current war is also demonstrating that without rail support, Russia is unable to stretch its logistics to support tank operations.
Minute 3: China pre-emptively targeting US territories doesn't seem plausible. Since they'd be trying to sell a Taiwan invasion as an internal matter, attacking the US wouldn't make sense. Since Japan wouldn't provide support to Taiwan outside of hosting a US military base, it would make no sense to drag Japan into the fight either, though given their history it's a toss-up as to whether China would declare war on Japan regardless of the Taiwan matter.
To further cast doubt on the possibility of a pre-emptive attack on Guam, consider that Guam is a US territory for military purposes and an attack could well trigger Article 5, dragging all of NATO into the fight. If China decides to engage the US over Taiwan, it'll be on the waters and non-NATO islands around the immediate area, probably stretching into the South China Sea.
Minute 6: Again, I wouldn't expect much tank on tank fighting to happen at all. The 2003 invasion of Iraq matched the M1A1 against T-72s, with devastating results for the Iraqi side. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict demonstrated the infeasibility of using tanks against an opponent armed with advanced anti-tank weapons. Iraq didn't have Javelins, NATO does. Iraq didn't have an equivalent of the Bayraktar drone or Harop loitering munition, Azerbaijan did, and NATO will have various equivalents such as predator drones, with Turkey and Poland recently producing their own divine wind drones. There is no realistic scenario where a sizeable tank force on the russian side will be effective at anything more than providing a field test to these new systems.
Minute 7: Don't discount the Rafale when it comes to defending the skies over Europe. It's possible for the Rafale to counter and destroy an S-400 system when aided by proper support and electronic warfare equipment. Any S-300/400 system brought out of russia's borders will be inactive in transport and can be hit despite ostensible cover from their currently active systems. The Rafale can fly low enough to avoid detection and would be well capable of carrying out precise strikes.
Minute 8: Helicopters. I'm having trouble believing there would be significant use of helicopters by russia due to the availability of MANPADs and the relative ease any modern AA system has in taking them down. They would also risk their own AA systems targeting and destroying their helicopters since it would take good intelligence integration to avoid friendly fire. For similar reasons, I can't imagine Europe would use helicopters in combat on a front, they're just too big and expensive a target.
Minute 9: Yes, ship guns and missiles will devastate static Taiwanese defences, both anti-air and anti-ship. It would have to rely largely on American ships by the coast to cover them with CIWS and anti-missile weapons. It would also put heavy stress on Taiwanese AA as they try to intercept cruise missiles from both ships and the mainland.
Minute 10: I'm not sure about widespread deployment of anti-ship mines. They're effective at guarding harbours, but can pose a significant threat to your own ships, as well as having dubious effectiveness in open water.
Minute 14: Various countries dawdling and refusing to jump into the fray is spot on, though many have been harassed and had their sea borders threatened by China. Australia being ready to jump in is a dream. Aussie leadership is terrified of losing a buyer for their coal.
Minute 21: "Russia-held Ukraine"? This remains to be seen. If russia would really be able to hold Ukraine long enough, russian logistics would not only suffer their own lack of preparedness, but a LOT of sabotage from the local Ukrainian population (assuming they didn't successfully genocide the tens of millions of Ukrainians living there.)
Minute 26: it's damn hard to even try to predict what an air battle like that would actually look like. It's not enough to compare numbers and official capabilities, this isn't a video game, there's a ton of factors nobody's even aware of. All I'll hazard to say is that all engagements would be beyond visual range, with countermeasures being a large factor in fighter survivability. Another huge factor is detection, if you can fire and forget a missile before the enemy can lock on to you, you can turn tail and run, hopefully remaining out of their range. If you have a nearly invisible jet feeding you target data, you don't even have to get close to hit the target. The F-22 is an enormous advantage IF the communications suite is operating and utilised fully.
Minute 28: NATO force is neutralised. Somehow. I'm not buying it.
Minute 29: Yes, India would jump in. They have a disputed border with China, though I don't expect major fighting on that border as it's all mountains. I think India would help a blockade of China, mainly for economic reasons to reduce Chinese push for controlling global ports (look it up).
On the same minute, russia has shown how immune a propaganda-raised populace can be to facts when nationalism is involved. Literally anything negative will be dismissed as foreign propaganda, and any actual protest will be brutally put down.
Minute 30: Again, I expect most of the work to take out russian AA to be done by unmanned vehicles such as guided missiles or drones.
In summary, I don't see a future where russia is able to push into NATO significantly. I do foresee a lot of political weaselling if they do try. Whether or not NATO agrees it's an Article 5 issue, many NATO countries would instantly respond to a russian advance, stopping it dead. Russia, especially now, doesn't have the resources to push into Europe.
Summary 2, opinionated buckaroo: russia and China won't ally for a world war, each would try to spin some political angle instead. They simply have no common ground, and China is just as likely to annex a huge part or the russian far East as it is to help russia.
Summary 3, return of the 'just an opinion, bro': China wouldn't make a first strike against the US over Taiwan. They would much prefer the invasion stay as small an affair as possible. They'd "defensively" attack US military vessels entering the "zone of operations" in an aggressive and hostile manner, but I'm predicting they would try to keep the combat zone as small as possible rather than turning it into a Pacific war like Japan did. They also wouldn't try to land on a beach until it was thoroughly tenderised by ship and land based artillery and missiles. Depending on how successful that is, and on the US response to it, China will then decide if they need to land troops to take the island or back away with a pre-planned political message about having 'successfully freed Taipei from imperialist US influence' via precision targeting the entire leadership even before the massive artillery campaign starts. That would be followed by a rigged election and a move by the new government of Taiwan to reunite with the mainland.