April 26 Weather Xtreme Video - Afternoon Edition

Douglas cooling and heating serving the Birmingham area for 38 years 9 8 8 3 706 that's Douglas I'm James Spann this is the afternoon edition of the weather extreme video this is for Tuesday the 26th of April a major severe weather event potentially across Alabama for the next 36 hours a lot to talk about many questions to answer so let's see if we can knock them out we'll start with the Skycam shots at this moment things are quiet that's the Birmingham Skycam it's very warm very humid almost feels like we're sitting on top of a powder keg which basically we are will go to the south and Shelby County that's the Skycam coming from Inverness overlooking highway 280 on top of the Windgate in and from Demopolis a beautiful afternoon that's looking down the Tombigbee River now there dew points almost it's 70 down there with a temperature of 82 all right the the lead part of this trough that brought the severe convection to Arkansas last night is lifting up toward the Great Lakes the next piece of energy is sliding into West Texas and accordingly things for the moment are quiet here those are temperatures at two o'clock we've got mid to upper 70s for Aniston and Gant and elsewhere mostly low 80s 81 for birmingham and tuscaloosa cooler back in northeast Alabama because of clouds we'll check the current setup these are instability values surface-based cape convective available potential energy at mid afternoon and the numbers are way up there almost like a summer day up to 2500 Jules near Montgomery and if you go to the West how about a cape of 4,000 to 5,000 Jules over Texas and Arkansas goodness gracious that's a powder keg there's a look at the olicity and the numbers are not that high and we don't expect any major tornado issues this afternoon or tonight that comes tomorrow but having said that the holistic evaluate and then also high back in Texas with the new energy coming in and there's a look at the significant tornado parameter at two o'clock the peak value is a seven that is extremely high anything over a two is very significant so we got that thing near 7:00 around Tyler Texas and also we note the STP is near five not too far from Nashville and of course everybody will have have to deal with severe weather across the southern states over the next 36 hours there's the current watch warning situation what a mess first off a tornado watch way up north for parts of Indiana in Michigan that's with the lead wave lifting northeast we got severe thunderstorm watches for parts of West Virginia Virginia New York in Pennsylvania flash flood watches from northeastern Texas up into Indiana a wind advisory for much of central Alabama and there's the new tornado watch this is a PDS watch PDS means particularly dangerous situation until 10 o'clock tonight for much of Texas then the ark-la-tex report techs are can up to hot springs and we note that lone supercell beginning to form down there below dallas-fort worth in the east of Stephenville down in Hill County Texas near Hillsboro again that's probably going to be the first supercell of the day right there one of many about a high risk for northeast Texas much of southern Arkansas Northwest Mississippi West Tennessee from Mount Pleasant Texas to Memphis those are very rare you might see a high risk on what three or four days a year we've got a moderate risk surrounding that from near dallas-fort worth in Waco to near Jackson Tennessee and then the big slight risk the standard risk runs up into the Great Lakes region all right tomorrow a moderate risk very enhanced risk of severe weather from Mississippi and Alabama North to Ohio the guys at SPC have expanded that enhanced risk farther north and that of course includes most of our coverage area and on to the north a slight risk all the way from mobile Gulf Shores Panama City up to the Canadian border and there's the probabilities and again 45 percent is the peak number within that moderate risk area which means a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a given point and on day three which is Thursday the risk area the standard slight risk well to the east near the Atlantic seaboard as we dry out there's a qpf chart don't forget heavy rain could be an issue here this is suggesting rain amounts at five and a half to six and a half inches from near Paducah Kentucky down to around Texarkana and remember many of these folks have had almost a foot of rain already credible rainfall amounts and for North Alabama the numbers have come up to about two inches and I think a lot of spots will see over two inches of rain between now and the pre-dawn hours Thursday when the stuff gets out of here well check the GFS the global forecast system a lot of new people watch this on prior to big events and we do these twice a day every day of the whole year and this is computer modeling which is what we use in the office we don't show this on television but we do show it here that's why it's called a weather extreme video this is valid one o'clock tomorrow afternoon this level is 500 millibars where the pressure is that level in it's about 18 to 20,000 feet off the ground very intense trough digging west of the state energy coming through the base of the trough highly die fluent flow aloft here helping the buoyancy of the air and down below that a surface low is under a thousand millibars this one is deeper which is problematic just west of Memphis very favorable position for severe weather and again what we've got is a situation across Alabama where I think the morning could be pretty quiet like this morning we'll have a camping inversion but then the cat breaks and we'll have cellular storms that form and those could go severe but the potential of violent long tracked tornadoes there's a projected sounding this is for Tuscaloosa tomorrow evening it's seven o'clock and it's the loaded gun type sounding a classic severe weather look and again you can see the cat there and also notice that the storm relative winds over there in the left you talk about veering of the wind without the to-goodness there's a look at the significant tornado parameter this is valid at 7 o'clock tomorrow evening numbers are almost off the chart running from eastern Mississippi up through Northwest Alabama into Tennessee and the supercell composite same thing numbers are off the chart I could show you these all day you know we've looked at a lot of things clearly synoptic Lee speaking everything is in place for a red-letter severe weather day potential for violent long-track tornadoes but the mesoscale the small-scale stuff really determines the ultimate outcome in that we won't know until tomorrow morning we just look at things where the boundaries where is it cloudy where we got the where's the cap stronger so again we have to be ready for a major event and just be ready get the warnings know what to do we'll be okay all right Thursday look at the trough axis being progressive moving on to the east nice cool stable air dropping in here Thursday should be just a gorgeous day highs drop into the low 70s a nice North breeze and the GFS showing 71 at Friday morning we might visit the upper 40s that's Friday gorgeous day will start the day around 50 we'll see a high in the upper 70s and Saturday looks good the start the weekend low to mid 80s a good supply of sunshine now this the next front is slower here on this run this is the look at Sunday afternoon at one o'clock off the GFS and the ridge is stronger holding the front back and accordingly we're dry on this run on Sunday now it's got the main band of storm still north and west of the state with that deep surface low near Hudson Bay and on Monday finally it eases in here so if this trend keeps up we can kind of leave Sunday dry and now mentioned mainly a chance of showers and storms Sunday night and Monday of next week and again the severe weather possibilities look low which is good with the main dynamics so far north and in Tuesday a week from today we're dry and pleasant we'll check the end of the forecast on May 12 whew Nelly look at this thing here look at the trough over the east you talk about anomalous 540 line almost down to Scottsboro and if that's right that would be very cool for the East but what you bet that thing goes away on the next run we'll see not much consistency out there not looking for specifics we're just looking for trends longtime viewers know that that's it for the weather extreme video this afternoon we'll have notes on the blog running commentary and updates on the severe weather event Alabama WX com we will have the next video here tomorrow morning at 7 weather permitting and way I think we can crank one out then and of course if your local to us in Alabama we invite you to watch us on television this evening that's ABC 33 40 in Birmingham at five six and ten thanks for watching have a wonderful day a wonderful evening and God bless thank you for trusting us to be your number one source for news in all of central Alabama in back-to-back ratings periods more people watched ABC 33 40 than any other station in Birmingham [Music]

Channel: ABC 33/40 Weather

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Keywords: james, spann, abc, 33/40, weather

Id: sP96LvzmJ0M

Length: 9min 11sec (551 seconds)

Published: Tue Apr 26 2011