Andrelton Simmons Is Having a Hall of Fame Career | Baseball Bits

this episode of baseball pits is brought to you by the athletic that's nice of them you can use my link at the athletic comm slash foolish baseball for a 30-day free trial as well as 50% off your annual subscription before I get started just watch this play this might be blasphemy but I think there's only one defender in baseball history who could make this play his name is Angela and Simmons he has never been an all-star but I think he could one day reach the Hall of Fame hot takes we all have them those deeply held convictions to everyone else there aren't landish but to the holder of said spicy take it is indisputable truth this is my number one hot take Andrelton Simmons will make the Hall of Fame my number two hot take Quan Soto is the next Ted Williams and of course there's number three which is that the sigh you award should be renamed to the old Haas award it makes sense it's an award for pitching excellence in a single season why are we naming after a filthy stat accumulator back to Simmons when you watch today's Major League Baseball some players just immediately stand out as being future Hall of Famers some of them have already made it like Albert Pujols while others just seem to be on a good trajectory like Mookie Betts the Angels themselves have another obvious Hall of Famer and trout who will reach automatic status the moment he steps on the field in 2020 as that will represent his 10th season in the big leagues Anthony Rendon still has much to accomplish but it's not impossible for him either even someone like Shohei Otani could reach baseball pioneer status for his two-way prowess like the 19th century pitcher candy Cummings who is inducted for inventing the curveball yet of all active players in Major League Baseball Andrelton Simmons is creating a Hall of Fame resume that's as sneaky as they come keep in mind that for every obvious hall-of-famer like pool holes there's guys like Harold Baines who are surprised veterans committee inductions there are multiple paths to election and I believe the future Simmons candidacy has the potential to appeal to new school analytics types old school voters and former ballplayers alike and it shouldn't be a surprise that these arguments are centered around his standout quality defense defense Andrelton Simmons might not be a superstar with the bat but as Benjamin Franklin once said a run saved is a run earned which is to say that a run prevented by good defense is just as valuable as one created by good offense and this nugget from a founding father is the foundation for an joltin Simmons Hall of Fame candidacy to understand just how special Andrelton Simmons defenses let's first do a quick primer on defensive metrics we're doing this because of the wisdom of Benjamin Franklin but if you're already pretty well versed in your total's own DRS and uzr you can skip to this point in the video where I talk about Simba's defense in particular just don't get mad at me in the comments if you don't know what's going on let's start with fielding percentage great there it is do you know what we should do with it time's up the correct answer was C throw it in the trash well is is that the trashcan from never mind there's a couple good reasons why feeling percentage is not to be trusted number one being that airs are decided by people in this case the scorer's a home run is a ball that travels over the fence a walk is for balls these are concrete facts errors are whatever a scorer feels like is an easy play not made it's a judgment call and often an inconsistent one the second reason not to trust feeling percentage is that great defenders actually create more opportunities to produce errors after all they have the range to make place that other defenders simply wouldn't get to airs and fielding percentage tell you the rate at which the defender makes routine plays but it's the rate of Unruh teen plays made that separates the good defenders from the not-so-good here's range factor of Bill James classic it's not newfangled in any way but it simply gives you how many plays the defender made per nine innings versus the league average at that position for example as a center fielder Willie Mays made two point six seven plays per nine innings against the league average of two point five five for his career we can use those numbers to estimate that maze made plus three hundred twenty four more outs than the average centerfielder throughout the course of his career that's about fifteen Percy's in the idea of measuring against the league average defender is the backbone for most modern defensive metrics but the current stats we used to evaluate the offense aren't based on outs they're based on runs enter the big three total zone aka T Z defensive runs saved aka DRS and ultimate zone rating aka UCR they're complicated the FanGraphs primer for UCR is six thousand words long and comes with an index and it's a similar story for defensive run saved on Baseball Reference even I don't really feel comfortable explaining them especially in video format where I'm supposed to just be talking about Andrelton Simmons total zone can be used throughout baseball history while they use er era begins in 2002 and DRS a year later DRS and uzr are more refined than the archaic total zone and are thus the two metrics that dominate defensive analysis today if you're a fielding percentage traditionalist worried not as UCR includes an adjustment for errors but the reason I grouped them together is that they're scaled the same zero runs his average negative 15 is terrible and positive 15 is elite and I think you can figure out what everything else in between means the vast majority of defenders will fall in this range for a single season so do they work well the top third baseman by UCR last year was Matt Chapman the eye test would confirm that he's obviously great and he's a Platinum Glove winner the worst third baseman by you see our flag Guerrero jr. a rookie who many feel projects as a first baseman toward eh long turn he makes sense in this spot too statcast likely represents the future of defensive metrics as it comes with ball and player tracking abilities that we previously didn't have it's still in its infancy but outs above average is definitely worth looking at it really is just a high tech range factor let's keep talking ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved where does Simmons rank in these categories here's a comparison of Simba versus other shortstops from 2002 onwards aka the DRS uzr era DRS loves him he has 79 more than the next guy Adam Everitt interestingly enough the defensive run save formula just updated this past offseason and those numbers are available on the fielding Bible website Simmons has a plus 193 with the update so not a big change UCR has them at number one as well but the gap isn't nearly as large keep in mind these are cumulative stats so playing longer is key to accruing good numbers JJ Hardy has 4,500 more innings at shortstop than Simmons while Jimmy Rollins has nearly 8,000 more so Simmons will certainly build on these leads as he's only entering his h30 season in Simmons case I think the eye test also confirms his dominance he makes some unbelievable plays let's look at Simmons against all other shortstops in MLB history in this case we'll be using DRS and UCR when available for modern players but otherwise it's total zone time when it comes to total zone slash defensive runs saved Simmons currently ranks third all-time among shortstops and could become number one in the next few seasons hey if a metric says that Ozzie is the best defensive shortstop of all time it's probably worth your time unfortunately fielding percentage would insist that Ozzie Smith is actually the 24th best defensive shortstop of all time just behind Stephen Drew throw it in the trash if we use Simba's use er instead he rakes it 15th but given his age there's still plenty of time to chase the rest of these guys down if he stays healthy and remains an everyday player for the next five or so seasons he could easily end up in the top three there's clearly a big gap between Andrelton ultimate zone rating and defensive runs saved we'll talk about it later I thought it would be fun to look at his career on a season the season level we can see that he has three of the top seven shortstop seasons by UCR as well as four of the top ten by defensive runs saved including number one in fact if you look at the 2020 DRS update 2017 Andrelton Simmons is the best all-time among players at any position the end result paints the picture of a shortstop who will go down as the 1b - Ozzie Smith's 1a it's difficult to say who's better but I'm comfortable asserting that the pair of Ozzie Smith and Angel today Simmons are just a cut above all other shortstops in terms of Raw defensive talent and here's a funny thing about Ozzie Smith he wasn't a particularly good hitter yet he's still in the Hall of Fame it's time to talk hitting position players typically hit their way into the Hall of Fame either by exhibiting elite offensive prowess or sticking around enough to accumulate impressive counting stats but there are some Hall of Famers who rated as below average hitters angel tone Simmons currently has a 91 career Oh PS Plus and there are five Hall of Fame hitters who retired with the worst Oh PS Plus than that you have the defensive shortstop Wizards Ozzie Smith and Luis Aparicio head scratchers rabbit Moran Ville and ray Schalk both of whom might be the worst players in the Hall of Fame and there's Bill Mazeroski one of the best defensive second baseman ever but likely only in the Hall of Fame for walking off the 1960 World Series the obvious comparisons here are Smith and apareció and I want to throw 82 o-p-s + Omar bisque Allen as well if you look at seasons with at least 100 o-p-s plus meeting at or above the league average hitter Simmons and fiscal heft to Ozzie Smith has four and aparicio yes Appa Ricci oh I looked it up has only one but all of those came in the h30 season or later now here our Simba's hitting numbers through 2018 he appeared to be on an upward trend culminating in those back-to-back stellar seasons in 2017 and 2018 which were driven by a high contact approach but things went very wrong in 2019 Simmons suffered a severe ankle sprain on May 21st in a footrace to first base up until that point he had put up very similar numbers to his previous two seasons but the offense slowed down and he slumped upon his return he also missed most of August with yet another ankle sprain if Andrelton Simmons is the 2019 version of himself from here on out he won't be a hall-of-famer but the league average hitter from previous seasons would make it the glove will be there even in the season studied by ankle injuries he was still on a lead defender at shortstop and I think this is something Simmons can maintain for a while as his actual foot speed isn't impressive his defense is a result of good instincts quick reactions and a powerful arm not freak out lettuce ISM that will disappear on the wrong side of 30 let's finally combine often sand defense to talk about overall value you might be surprised where Simmons ranks war who yeah what is it good for absolutely something sing it again with 36.9 baseball-reference Wins Above Replacement simmons ranks basically middle-of-the-pack among Hall of Fame shortstops through their age 29 seasons just ahead of Barry Larkin and well ahead of Luis Aparicio and Ozzie Smith another metric we could look at for a Hall of Fame case is wins above average which is a measure of one's career against the average player rather than a replacement level one if Wins Above Replacement is a measure of goodness wins above average is a measure of greatness and once again Simmons is in a pretty good spot ranking you ahead of 14 Hall of Fame shortstops at this point in his career you may be surprised by these results but let's break down war into its three main subcategory battling runs fielding runs and base runs here's Andrelton Simmons and Derek Jeter you can probably guess where this is going but they actually generated the same amount of wins above average from age 23 to age 28 yet the distribution of batting fielding and base runs is completely different Simmons is a slightly below average hitter but an unbelievable defender and Jeter is the opposite yet when you add up these different types of runs it reveals the same overall value above the league average it just goes back to the wise teachings of Benjamin Franklin a run saved with the glove is just as valuable as one created by the bat here's another nugget of wisdom from Benjamin Franklin I think he was intoxicated when he said this one but he said the best version of war is the one that supports your argument and he was absolutely correct f4 otherwise known as FanGraphs war does not support Simmons as much as reference war this is mostly because FanGraphs war is based on news er while baseball reference is based on DRS Simmons has significantly less use er and thus gets less love from fan graphs why use er is more conservative remember this graphic it shows that DRS take some extreme stances while use ER plays it pretty safe and ultimate zone rating is probably the superior defensive metric for that reason alone as the baseball intelligencia aren't yet able to measure defense as effectively as they can measure offense don't worry folks we haven't soft baseball yet it surely won't hurt the jaws a metric created for Hall of Fame candidacy based on both peak and overall value is based on our war rather than f war let's talk about how simba can navigate the tricky Hall of Fame balloting process it's probably time we talked more about Omar Vizquel who currently sits on the Hall of Fame ballot and projects to get about 47% of the vote in his fourth year that actually puts them on a decent trajectory to get in as close calls like Tim Raines Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker please Larry Walker get in the Hall of Fame please please please please had not yet built as much support at this point in their candidacy fish-scale like Simmons is a top-tier defensive shortstop but his greatest weapon is not his peak it's his longevity if Simmons plays into his 40s like Fisk L he's a no brainer but that seems unlikely because so few ballplayers pull it off still the skeleton again would help Simmons as Omar was a great defender but a well below average hitter under the current rules Simmons probably won't hit the bat until the 2030s and the electorate will be more sabermetric friendly than they are now this leads to my invention the BB waa crash the old man index on the near end of the bell curve you have maximum crocheting this these are the oldest of old school voters they might respect elite defense as they did with Ozzie Smith or it's possible they only respect highlights and dubious Gold Glove awards it's tough to get a read on these guys then you have the opposite of crotchety old men smug sabor patricians these skeptics will know that defensive metrics can be suspect and may judge Simmons on f war rather than its are war or even as forp they know too much the hope is that enough voters will lie in the middle the Simmons sweet spot the perfect amount of ignorance just smart enough to look at jaws and understand defensive metrics this is also where I stand as far as the future of his career I already stated that I think the defense will hold for now it's predicated on his free gar more than his foot speed if he can get back on course with the hitting he'll potentially put down some of his best offensive seasons in his 30s similar to his peers Ozzie Smith Luis Aparicio and Omar Vizquel he could even transfer to third base in his twilight years if the bat sticks around long enough I hope that Andrelton Simmons has plenty of baseball left to play beyond the metrics he is one of baseball's most entertaining and unique players not only is he capable of freak web gems but he also routinely makes plays that show off his ridiculously high awareness and baseball IQ and that makes him a great role model for younger ballplayers so hats off to you Simba may your defensive reign of terror continue and may you one day shock us all by making it all the way to Cooperstown this has been my angel tense in men's Hall of Fame hot take until next time foolish baseball signing off I still don't know where the Braves traded this guy this episode of baseball pits was brought to you by the athletic the athletic provides his readers with the best baseball coverage and storytelling available they employ a world-class team of writers that for all your favorite organizations at the local level as well as at the league level and that goes for almost any sport you can imagine on top of this the website nap are completely app free so no more annoying pop-ups you can use my link at the athletic comm slash foolish baseball for 50% off your yearly subscription as well as a 30-day free trial once again thank you to the athletic for sponsoring this episode of baseball bits [Music] [Music]

Channel: Foolish Baseball

Views: 459,528

Rating: 4.9435639 out of 5

Keywords: andrelton simmons, andrelton simmons angels, andrelton simmons braves, mlb defensive metrics, mlb analytics, defensive runs saved, ultimate zone rating, statcast, statcast outs above average, hall of fame, mlb hall of fame, cooperstown, best defensive shortstop, best defensive shortstop all time, hall of fame voting, omar vizquel, omar vizquel hall of fame voting, baseball bits, foolish baseball, Why Andrelton Simmons Is Having a Hall of Fame Career | Baseball Bits, mlb, baseball

Id: SXvrppeIIes

Length: 17min 15sec (1035 seconds)

Published: Sat Jan 18 2020

Reddit Comments

[u/foolishbaseball]

Thanks for sharing! A little background, I uploaded this early in the afternoon but had technical difficulties. It should be all fixed now. Sorry for the confusion. I hope you all enjoy finished video! /r/baseball has been such a great supporter of what I do, I cannot thank y'all enough.

[u/MartOut]

I have faith in him to have a decently long playing career. He has had several small nagging injuries but seems to recover quickly from the big ones. The video mentioned his average speed, but that could also be a result of always having his ankle injured lmao.

There's no doubt that Andrelton is one of the best defensive shortstops the game has ever seen. I think that if he plays through 2025, maintains his low strikeout rate, and stays relatively healthy, he's in.

Side note: IIRC it was July of 2017 that Andrelton was our rWAR leader just ahead of none other than Jose Altuve.

Edit: Correction, it was AUGUST of 2017 https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/6t8dkn/andrelton_basically_mike_trout_simmons_63_has/

[u/AllOfTheDerp]

new baseball bits

it's about Andrelton Simmons

Finally, some good fucking food

[u/Name99998965]

The main problem with Simmons getting in is if the small hall thing gets bigger

[u/lyin_reaf]

Still heated over this trade even to this day. Return hasn’t been worth it AT ALL

[u/fawkesmulder]

Simmons is miles better than Vizquel who has gotten some HoF votes.

I actually think Simmons has something like a 50/50 chance to get in, all said and done.

[u/USCplaya]

Angels could have 5 hall of famers on their roster this year... If Jo Adell lives up to his hype (Gigantic "if") it could be 6.....

God I hope they make the playoffs

[u/Ironamsfeld]

One of the most underrated players in the game today.

[u/Woggums83]

I miss him so much. I love Dansby as much as someone could but I just absolutely loved Simba