Chris Davis’s Streak Was a One in a Million Life Lesson | Baseball Bits

this video is brought to you by nordvpn right now you can get a deep discount on a two-year plan at nordvpn.com foolish baseball [Music] it's september 14 2018 and chris davis is slumping in fact he's o for his last 16 at bats and with both davis and his baltimore orioles in the dumps there isn't much to cheer about at camden yards but davis musters up something in the second inning he hits a double off james shields just over the glove of a shifted juan moncada he stands at second base blissfully unaware of what will happen next chris davis would go hitless for his next 54 bats 62 plate appearances and 210 days now that it's been a couple years since this unfortunate streak we can view it with a newfound perspective after all davis's over 54 was one in a million and you'll soon find out why that's no exaggeration chris davis struck out 30 times over the course of his streak that's a 48 k rate but we're not gonna focus on that strikeouts are bad but they're an understandable type of bad you can't get a hit if you don't hit the ball that's pretty simple so let's focus on everything else to see where it all went wrong september 17th bottom of the second versus the blue jays chris davis bounces one off the pitcher ryan borrucki who recovers to throw out davis by a step september 18th bottom of the fourth aaron sanchez bounces one off the toe of davis he reaches base safely on a hit by pitch revealing that davis does in fact have a solid corporeal form he is not some sort of spirit unable to physically interact with the world if the baseball can hit him he can hit the baseball september 22nd versus the yankees i forgot lance lynn was on the yankees anyways davis crushes a line drive 109 miles per hour but it's caught by gleber torres it's a tough break with the ball being so well struck the streak could have ended right there but it didn't top of the 10th base is loaded chance to be the hero and luke voigt makes a diving catch another tough break that was the last game davis played in 2018 he finished with the lowest qualified batting average in modern mlb history and he got paid 17 million dollars to do it fast forward to baltimore's opening series in 2019 davis starts his second game of the year on an 0 for 21 streak but makes good contact in his first at-bat sadly brett gardner hauls it in on the warning track a few more feet and it would have exited yankee stadium resulting in a much needed hit the streak could have ended right there but it didn't in his next at-bat chris davis does something that is usually good for the old babbitt luck he hits an opposite field ground ball against a shifted defense unfortunately it rolls to third baseman miguel and duhar who makes the play in the orioles next series versus the blue jays davis walks with the bases loaded it's not every day someone who's over 27 gets an rbi but what happens the next day is even more uncommon with a runner on second and no ounce the blue jays elect to intentionally walk davis once javigara falls behind in the count it's not every day someone who's o for 30 gets intentionally wanked bad luck struck again on april 3rd as davis crushed a 105 mile per hour line drive right to billy mckinney no seriously right at him he took one step the streak could have ended right there but it didn't then came the home opener the first time davis would face the orioles crowd that year in the sixth inning davis pushes james paxton to a full count but he strikes out and the fans begin to boo him well they were in baltimore so i guess it sounded more like boo boo get it because of the accent [Music] april 6 bottom of the 8th base is loaded surely this is the moment davis makes good contact and it's fielded cleanly by greg byrne that had gotten past them it might have been scored as a hit instead it's another out april 8th versus the a's you like lineouts to outfielders can i interest you in this one not your style alright how about this bad boy no still not good enough okay here's my favorite 103 off the bat 346 feet and caught by robbie grossman look at davis's reaction that's a man that just cannot catch a break two days later davis just got under one sending ramon loriano close to the warning track in the series finale davis crushes another ball this time 105 miles per hour but it's caught by l'oreal 382 feet from home plate the reaction is incredulous at this point sure he's striking out nearly half the time throughout this streak but something's gotta give with these batted balls of course defensive positioning is a factor marcus simeon demonstrated the value of the shift on the very next at bat april 12th in fenway versus the red sox and davis has a pinch-hit opportunity in the top of the ninth again the shift works against him as eduardo nunez catches a weird knuckling liner ending the game there it is that's a small slice of what it's like to go oh for 54. the streak was vanquished the very next day davis is going to get one face it into right field and for chris davis it's over baby we're not talking about it anymore at long last he found the outfield grass collecting a two-run single off rick porcello the offer was over davis didn't shy away from the moment either he asked for the ball why because he'd made history even if it was the dubious kind his o for 54 was the longest hitless streak for a position player in mlb history he'd suffered a lot to reach this point he wanted to at least save her the moment it finally ended davis added two doubles later in the game finishing the day three for five he also went yard in the series finale ending a 35 game homerless stretch by breaking down some of the noteworthy moments we can appreciate just how remarkable this streak was but now it's time to dig deeper now it's time to prove just exactly why the streak was one in a million [Music] chris davis's over 54 can be broken down into 30 strikeouts and 24 batted balls one of those batted balls was a fielder's choice he reached safely on so we'll toss it out that leaves 23 hit opportunities to be examined according to statcast the top 5 most likely hits from this stretch were the ground out to greg byrd which had a 600 expected batting average the deep fly out to brett gardner which had a 667 expected batting average the line out to billy mckinney which had a 680 expected batting average the line out to gleber torres which had a 913 expected batting average and finally the weird knuckling line out to eduardo nunez which had a whopping 960 expected batting average i know it might not look that way but that's the type of batted ball that almost always lands behind the infielders and in front of the outfielders for a single already the odds of missing out on all those hits are low but when all 23 batted balls are integrated it produces an astonishing result every time chris davis shook his head after an unlucky out has led up to this moment according to expected batting average the odds of davis smacking those 23 batted balls without a hit was .0001 percent aka one in a million even though he spent much of the streak striking out the total absence of batting average on balls and play luck is what made the 0454 possible so how does this expected batting average business even work the two main components are launch angle and exit velocity for example the line out to glaber torres was hit 109.2 miles per hour with a launch angle of 12 degrees in the statcast era this combination of launch angle and exit velocity produces a hit about 91 percent of the time so statcast decides an expected batting average of 0.913 and here's the key to the puzzle expected batting average does not care about how the fielders are positioned and their proximity to the ball see the best hitters are the best because they can manufacture their own luck whether it's a high babip high homer to fly ball rate or a high walk rate powered by a lack of pitches in the strike zone they consistently succeed in metrics that have an element of luck but davis couldn't manufacture babbitt block in fact defenses were manufacturing babit luck against him with the shift here's a fact chris davis is the most shifted against hitter of the entire statcast era the logic behind it is pretty simple if he's gonna hit a homer he's gonna hit a homer but if he's gonna hit a ground ball he's probably gonna pull it chris davis has hit 560 ground balls since 2015 and 58.5 of them were pulled he's a shift victim no doubt about it he goes to a support group meeting every tuesday with ryan howard it wasn't all shift all the time though the most unlikely defensive play made according to inside edge was actually the ryan borrucki recovery and throw and how about that warning track fly out to brett gardner about two-thirds of batted balls with that launch angle exit velo combination leave the yard you can play the if game all day if he pulled it a little more if the wind was blowing out if it was warmer outside but none of these ifs ever happened not for 54 at bats see what made the streak of futility resonate is that we've all been there we've all been down on our luck and eventually the same baseball fans who booed him during the opening home stand began to cheer instead [Music] at some point the jeers turned to cheers don't believe me check out the noise level on this jonathan vr fly out down the right field line there's left center field this ball has a chance in the gap but running it down is grossman nicely done and for a fourth straight a little bit of intrigue now watch chris davis do the exact same thing center field l'oreal is back on it appears to have a play he does and he's got it for the out see the baltimore faithful began to experience the same babit frustrations as davis and a little empathy can go a long way it wasn't just orioles fans either the best thing to come out of this stretch was a nine-year-old red sox supporter who pinned davis a letter of encouragement writing the way you play baseball has absolutely nothing to do with how good a person you are everyone goes through a slump don't give up we're rooting for you months after the streak ended davis finally got a chance to thank his young pen pal in person when the orioles returned to fenway truth be told the stakes weren't very high davis had already hit his guaranteed payday and his organization was uncompetitive with or without him he began the streak on an orioles team that won 47 games he ended it on a team that won 54. when you think about it he'd already bought himself plenty of goodwill with the fans in baltimore after all he had been good in an oriel's uniform before which is something that couldn't be said about much of their roster davis sharp decline mirrored the sharp decline of the franchise itself the orioles thrice made the playoffs in the early 2010s only to begin a total rebuild at the end of the decade davis meanwhile led all of mlb in home runs for a five-year stretch between 2012 and 2016. ultimately chris davis is what i would call a tightrope player these are players that embrace their extreme profiles to great success which becomes a death-defying balancing act and there's no shame in being a tightrope player davis is no different from the reliever that's elite when he throws 101 and bad when he throws 98 but when a tightrope player stumbles just a little bit they fall a long way the three true outcome approach from davis is hardly unique in the modern game but his inability to hit velocity was an interesting wrinkle davis has been below average against 95 fastball's per hour or higher throughout his career even the seasons when he led the league in home runs the fact that the previous orioles regime chose to give a 161 million dollar contract to a tightrope player can't be held against davis but thanks to the magic of deferred money he'll be getting paid until 2037. yet throughout the over 54 nobody questioned if the slugger had given up nobody wondered if he was resigned to collect the paycheck and never get a hit again baseball fans all over the world experienced the cruelty of the game nay the human condition through davis and because of this his legacy will be defined not just by his greatness on the baseball diamond but also by the grace with which he handled hardship so here's to you chris davis whether you're over 50 or hitting your 50th home run you made our lives better you know what else will make your life better nordvpn that's called a segway folks hey baseball fans sick of those local blackouts on mlbtv let's say you're a dodgers fan in los angeles simply choose a server in new york and you can watch the home team in fact their virtual private network has 5400 servers in 59 countries so why not use nord to expand your other streaming capabilities field of dreams is on netflix canada and the naturals on netflix netherlands but nordvpn lets you surf the web without borders it also lets you surf securely behind a wall of next-gen encryption and that goes for six devices whether it be your laptop tablet or phone if any of that sounds good you can get a deep discount at nordvpn.com foolish baseball not only will you get free bonus months on a two-year deal it's risk-free with nord's 30-day money-back guarantee again that's nordvpn.com foolish baseball [Music]

Channel: Foolish Baseball

Views: 527,340

Keywords: chris davis, chris davis orioles, chris davis streak, chris davis hitless streak, chris davis 0-54, chris davis 0 for 54, chris davis slump, what happened to chris davis, mlb the shift, mlb shift, statcast, statcast mlb, baltimore orioles, chris davis baseball, chris davis contract, baseball, mlb, foolish baseball, baseball bits, Chris Davis’s Streak Was a One in a Million Life Lesson

Id: Mwk3a3nhJfw

Length: 16min 5sec (965 seconds)

Published: Wed Jul 28 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/cabose7]

One in a 150 million

[u/gingerzilla]

[Foolish Baseball] Chris Davis’s Streak Was a One in a Million Life Lesson

Or how Bailey tricks you into his xBA TED talk

[u/TigerBasket]

Oh Jesus I think I'm good

[u/thewick_39]

Bailey's amazing, this video was great too! Went in depth about how much bad luck factored into the streak and how everyone eventually realized how much Davis was getting screwed over

[u/TrapperJean]

If a lesson is one in a million is it worth learning?

[u/godly_mercs]

I’m a simple man. I see Foolish Baseball, I upvote

[u/Noy_Telinu]

Very unlucky. Also bad but also unlucky

[u/comradequicken]

The amazing thing to me is that he did this and did not at any point while it was going or since change his approach at the plate. He doesn't so much struggle at the plate so much as he surrenders.

[u/kyotemoon]

Very similar story to the movie "Limitless" without the Hollywood ending.