Will Israel and Hamas accept President Biden's ceasefire plan? | Inside Story

it's a US ceasefire plan that has stirred heated debate in Israel Benjamin Netanyahu is warned by his allies that their Coalition will collapse if he accepts it Hamas said it's positive but work still needs to be done so could President Joe Biden's proposal end the war on Gaza this is Inside Story hello and welcome to the program I'm Sarah vaner another proposal to end the war in Gaza US President Joe Biden has announced a three-phase plan he says paves the way for a ceasefire in the strip but the challenge now is how to get both Israel and Hamas to accept it the White House argues that if the group accepts this deal then Israel will too but as soon as it was announced prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu allies threatened to quit his government if he treated it positively and Netanyahu himself has reiterated what he's been saying since October 7th that Hamas must be destroyed and the Israeli captives in Gaza returned so does Biden's deal stand any chance of success we'll talk to our guests in a moment first though this report by IPM genud it's time for this war to end a firm declaration from US President Joe Biden putting forward what he says is an Israeli proposal to end the war the three-phase plan includes the withdrawal of troops from populated areas of Gaza the release of Israeli captives in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and deliveries of a into the strip on the streets of Tel Aviv protesters calling for the return of 125 Israelis still held in Gaza had a clear message for their government I'm here to support my government in taking this deal the deal that Netanyahu suggested our prime minister that we'll get all our people back home Hamas officials have signaled they're viewing the proposal favorably but not so Israeli leaders Benjamin Netanyahu called it a non-starter saying Hamas needed to be eliminated before the war can end farite ministers have repeatedly refused any ceasefire and threaten to quit his coalition government something the Prime Minister wants to avoid but Washington says hamas's military capabilities have been reduced enough to avoid a new October 7th scenario and the moment has come for a six- week pause in the fighting followed by negotiations and the Reconstruction of the strip Israeli soldiers have destroyed 50,000 homes in gaza's north and left its largest refugee camp in Ruins during the first Israeli incursion my shop was was destroyed and we managed to reopen it after some repairs now after the second incursion as you can see there's nothing left even if they demolish the shop once more I'll stand firm and won't leave the US says if Hamas takes the deal Israel will too a similar plan was accepted by the Palestinian group last month but rejected at the last minute by Israeli leaders between delays and contradictory statements more work is likely to be needed before any ceasefire can be agreed until then Palestinians can only hope that if that happens there'll be enough left in Gaza to salvage iptm genford Al jazer for Inside Story all right let's bring in all our guests in Tel Aviv Alon leel is a former Israeli foreign Ministry spokesman and Ambassador in Montreal muen Rani is a non-resident fellow at the center for conflict and Humanity in studies mu is also co-editor of the online magazine Jalia in Washington DC Akbar Shahed Ahmed is the senior diplomatic correspondent for huff post welcome to Inside Story to all of you I want to start with a very quick uh um uh temperature take on on this following question and I'm hoping for now just for a yes maybe or no answer do you think the moment that we're in now is ultimately going to lead to a ceasefire Alon will not end the war M probably not abar maybe and probably no okay so that was useful so not a great deal of optimism as as far as this ceasefire plan is concerned let's get into the details of it Akbar what was the play for Biden on Friday he delivers this surprise speech I think it was a surprise for many he presents what he says is in his plan but since then we've understood there's some daylight between but he's the one who's presenting it which first of all is a little strange and secondly we've understood there's daylight between him and the Israelis on it what was the play for the US president so important to remember for the Biden Administration we're still working on persuasion right they're not thinking about American leverage over Israel in terms of military military diplomatic support other forms of support that the US provides that make the Israel offensive possible right so Biden is not saying as he did a few weeks ago I'm withholding bombs unless you do this what he's done with this with this as you're saying in this play is rely on the Biden administration's preferred Battlefield which is a battlefield of narratives right so they want to say look at us we are reasonable and in fact we are still with Israel we're telling you this is the isra proposal obviously that's very hard to do when you haven't cleared that with the Israeli side first but that the hope for the V Administration was by saying where with Israel we are aligned on this the ball is in hamas's court they're creating an Avenue in their view for Israel to come to what they see as The Logical conclusion here right which is ending the fighting for now allowing in humanitarian Aid easing the crisis all of that to say so I mean if it's not backed up with a real push from the US side it's really hard to see if that's anything more than spin right or drama I was talking earlier today to a state department official quite well informed who was saying look Netanyahu has already told us this isn't going to matter unless there are consequences so now for a lot of people in Washington including people in the administration who were involved in creating this right uh there's not a huge amount of optimism and in a way we're waiting for the next shoe to drop so the first shoe was the president announcing this sudden speech and now it is Will Biden create any consequences for n me Alon as we mentioned in the intro you headed Israel's foreign Ministry previously how do you read this moment the US president saying here's a deal and by the way it's Israel's deal yet he's the one presenting it and Israel doesn't completely agree with it it seems yeah the mere fact that Biden had to expose the deal and not Israel is H saying that uh he was very worried that uh Nan will chicken out he put him in front of a a certain mirror and said this is what your cabinet approved now go ahead and netan is already partially denying it which was expected H Biden tried to go directly to the Israeli public above the head of Netanyahu and tell this is what your prime minister agreed I think it's the best plan you can get and I agree with it go ahead put the necessary pressure in a way is also telling the world H go ahead and put pressure on the sides to move on I personally think that the big mistake the big American mistake here is that simultaneously without netan confirming public the plan he was invited to address the Congress for who is it's his fourth invitation it's a world record Churchill is the second one with three invitations to address the Congress It's a Wonderful excuse to postpone things and say I will explain to the American people and to the Congress what I'm about to do mine uh so Alan mentioned something that Netanyahu has been invited to speak before a joint session of the US Congress and he wasn't invited just by one Congressional leader or just by the Republicans no he was invited by the senior all the senior Congressional leaders Senate House of Representatives Republican and Democrats even by the way for our viewers who know this in some detail this story even by Chuck Schumer the Senate leader right who has been extremely critical of Netanyahu and called for election so they all called for Netanyahu to come um how do you read that how does that uh play how does that factor into this well based on what what Mr leel just said I think it's clear that if Biden thinks he can go over netanyahu's head and appeal directly to Israeli public opinion it's in fact Netanyahu who can go over Biden's head and appeal directly to us political Elites and and US voters I I think the background here is is quite strange as the other two speakers have indicated it was a US president who publicly presented what he claimed is an Israeli offer or something Israel has already agreed to then the Israeli Prime Minister suggests actually what Biden presented is somewhat different than what Israel had agreed to then a senior Us official says in fact um the Israelis uh proposed uh formulated this proposal but did so in confidence and asked us not to make it um public which Biden of course did putting the ball squarely in the Palestinians court and now you have very senior Israeli government Minister saying they know nothing about it and that if Israel agrees to it um they're going to collapse the Coalition who's lying probably all of them um and um this is It's just uh too much it's too much for words and I think failure is being set up to once again um place the blame on the Palestinians and the second point I would make is is that um Biden has repeatedly engaged in such Maneuvers where he's seeking to exercise pressure on the Israeli leadership but the moment the Israelis uh refuse to bend to such uh pressure or push back um us pressure collapses and it ends up being pressure on the Americans rather than on the Israelis to that point Akbar you're in Washington DC you're talking to your sources in and around the administration in the political orbit right of the Biden administration were were three days removed from the speech how do they feel about their move three days on do they think Master move we've kind of pressured you know the Israelis they're going to have to do something or do they think uhoh we might find ourselves with egg on our faces I I would add again I think there's still a degree of confidence it's not a high level of confidence but there is a degree of confidence they can get somewhere um I think Mo's point was in STO one about American political Elite opinion right one thing that this Administration has been afraid of since October 7th given the historical scale of the attacks and and the trauma that not just isres felt but many many people in this country with ties to Israel Jewish Americans and others the Administration has been extremely anoid about looking insufficiently close to Israel and they that may sound to people who are saying look 36,000 Palestinians dead the war is nowhere near over famine is underway have you really not been close enough to the Israelis for the Biden team that's still a dominating team right so that's still very much going to be part of their calculus as Netanyahu comes to Congress on the flip side this was also a political speech that they devised not just with an eye to gaza's suffering and an eye to Israel's security but with an eye the November presidential election right and so they're thinking from a master stroke perspective maybe we can make all sides happy right now the Israeli side isn't happy you've also seen Arab and Muslim Americans who have been really critical of Biden come out and say precisely what a little bit of what n is saying you're putting the ball on the Palestinians are going to blame them and also saying how is this where we are this many months into the war and with Biden's own sort of seed limit on Rafa being crossed right as these as all these talks have been happening let's just zoom out and remember there have still been Israel strikes with Gaza right there's still on a went now close to a month of no Aid being allowed in medical or food or any of that and so I don't see who the administration is making happy but they are a group that sees themselves PA for a second on on this issue I want to pick you up on a point you just made that the US administ the Biden Administration is quote paranoid that they might appear insufficiently close to Israel that's what you said so we I I want to make sure our viewers understand this the Biden Administration for as much as they've tried to Plate the um Pro Palestinian demonstrators on campuses they've tried to show since the beginning of the war that they care about Palestinian suffering and they've come out often often belatedly but they' they've come out with statements in support of Palestinians Etc you're saying that the bottomline political calculus for them is they need to be close enough to Israel I think there's there's two aspects to that right one is that fundamentally the political Elite in this country across both bodies is overwhelmingly pro Israel right they may not be Pro Netanyahu but they believe in the US Israel Alliance it's a long-standing relationship and that includes people in Democratic party right so when you had leader Schumer come out and say I don't want that n yahu the subtext to all that is not maybe we should read I'm in this relationship the subtext is I don't like dealing with this guy on the other end of the phone get me someone else on end of the phone and then there is a question of Jonas there's a question of how is this going to affect Biden's re-elections so when Biden for instance held up bombs for Israel in May you saw Heim Saban a major Democratic party donor directly reach out to some of Biden's top political advisers and say why is the president doing this this is a billionaire right who's given tons of money to Democrats and he he felt not just comfortable reaching out to the president's to political advisers he then leaked that to s reporters so there's huge political pressure continuing yes there's some more more concessions to prop Palestinian side but the Instinct particularly for an old school politician like Biden is am I doing enough to make the pro Israel side happy okay so Alan let's so that was the US political calculus let's talk about netanyahu's political calculus and whether it has changed in the last three days one thing is not a surprise at all is that the farri right his far-right ministers have said we don't want this deal because what they don't want to end the war right they want to keep fighting against Hamas that's not a surprise we know that they haven't changed their view however y Leed head of the opposition has said to Netanyahu if you lose the far right by accepting this deal if you lose their support you've got our support we'll have your back and you'll keep some form of Coalition in Parliament and therefore you'll keep your job do you think Netanyahu would do that look what Biden's speech did it sharpened the division inside the Israeli public between the right and the center left and the as you said No Surprises with the right also no surprises with the center left that is allhe heartedly welcoming this plan what it also did in addition to sharpening the division here it put netan exactly in the middle in a position that he can choose he personally can choose any time if he wants to go with the right or with the center he has the two options so it's it's up to him completely if the two rightwing ministers will leave one of them by the way said today that netan is not showing him the plan he didn't see anything in writing so netan is kind of hiding it but if they decide to leave he will immediately get the support of the becking but this will mean that he breaks his historic alliance with the extreme right and the religious parties and uh it might be the end of his political career so he he can choose and I think this is the reason that he will try to delay and until he comes to the Congress formulate his view to the American people and and explain exactly what he's doing I'm almost sure that as in the past he will have a standing oion will come back as the hero and still do nothing well still now he would be you think he would be welcomed as a hero by a joint session of the US Congress even under the present circumstances a reminder this this he's been invited it's between now and the next eight weeks I Believe by then by then arrest warrants may have been issued against him by the international uh criminal court for crimes against humanity we don't know but that seems very possible at this point look we have has so much experience in Congressional speeches and un speeches he is a profession he arranges pre- arranges this the support inside the Congress the pla inside the Congress and he is a fantastic speaker and again he will come back to Israel supported by the Congress also here it will be about four months before the American elections all all the considerations in American politics ICS are the elections and they probably do not want to show that if he dropping him and dropping the Jewish State and dropping the friendship with Israel so I think if he will not make up his mind until the trip to the United States if the Americans will not force him to make up his mind before the trip after the trip it will be easier for him to just forget about this plan M we started this conversation about uh the driving question was whether this moment might compel both sides Israel and Hamas to accept a deal we've been talking a lot about Netanyahu I have a better understanding of the political calculus on the US side the Israeli side no one has said so far yes Netanyahu is now under the gun to accept this deal do you do you agree with that there's no particular pressure on him that there was no already to accept the deal I I think that's a fair characterization as as you've seen um Netanyahu has come out with public statements about a deal that he um appears to be the one who formulated it saying that yes we will agree to a temporary ceasefire um during which we um engage in a exchange of uh captives and then six weeks later our genocidal assault on the Gaza Strip will resume and will continue until um uh Hamas is destroyed look um I do believe that um both the US Administration and the Israeli government are operating on the basis of um uh narrow partisan political calculations but I also think it's much more than that even if there were no us elections this year um Biden and his most senior officials have had a lifelong passionate attachment to Israel for throughout their political iCal career they have seen Palestinians as less than human and essentially as irrelevant and Expendable human scum so they really have no problem with what Israel is doing to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip in terms of reducing also the entire territory to Rubble as far as Netanyahu is concerned yes of course he would like to remain in power um in order to avoid the consequences of the various um legal cases that have been directed against him but it also goes far beyond that um October 7th was for the Israeli political and security leadership a failure of historic proportions and the primary reason they're continuing to prosecute this war is so that they can make some kind of strategic achievement so that when they have to take responsibility um for their failures afterwards they can claim that they compensated for October 7th by for example eliminating the Hamas leadership expelling the population to Sinai destroying hamas's military capabilities and so on and what I think the US is doing now is basically telling the Israelis you have failed for eight months you're not going to succeed in the next eight months and it's really time to put an end to this before the entire region blows up um uh but again um when advice and persuasion is not backed up with pressure and leverage it's just empty words Alana I have a a wide question for you A big picture question for you on Israel's strategic Vision because I haven't heard a strategic Vision being articulated whether it's by Galant whether it's by Netanyahu none of the leaders have said this is what we want for I you know it it's inv to say the day after but even before this war there didn't appear to be a strategic Vision by Israel on how do we live with Palestinians right if you take Gaza West Bank and Israel they're about 7.3 Israelis 7.3 Palestinians so there's an acute question of how do we live together or side by side what's the arrangement and Israel has done uh annexation settlement occupation blockade and regular Wars with Gaza you were someone who you were director general of the foreign Ministry how is that question sort of tackled within the The Diplomatic Community look historically until 10 years ago there was an Israeli vision of two states 10 years ago this Vision was shoved aside and the government repeatedly said no two states no Palestinian State and was a TR trying to lead to an annexation of of Zone C in the West Bank so the policy before the 7th of October was very clear no Palestinian State the the issue of a Palestinian state had a comeback because of the war an international comeback and now what netan is saying look why should I speak on long term we are in a in the middle of a horrible war in which we lost already, 1600 uh people ER let me finish this war let me eliminate Hamas and we'll speak on the day after after I see Hamas eliminated so at this point I agree with you at this point Israel doesn't have a long term Israel has a wish to eliminate Hamas and to maybe decide on the future afterwards abbar and I think this is probably going to be the final question do you get a sense what is your sense of the Biden administration's next move they have they have laid out a plan they are daring both sides to accept it what next well I just want to quickly pick up on something alanso because I thought it was quite important that the Israelis have very clearly even pre October 7th moved away from a two-state solution framework and for the Biden Administration and the US that's been the Touchstone right that's been the cover for decades of allowing and supporting occupation and and devastating you know Israeli campaigns and alleged war crimes has been well one day we're going to got to two State prior to October 7th the Biden Administration essentially was saying we're okay not even ever talking about that again right so this is now back to the four I think that that gets to this question of what's the next move for them because they have not shown an interest in a long-term solution and settlement for Israelis and Palestinians that's never been their priority some of them you know pointed out have had a long-term kind of opposition to Palestinians um I think they don't know where to go next I think they're really really hoping that the mediators uh the Egyptians and the CES can play a big role here important to remember that Egypt has said our peace treaty with Israel might be at risk that's something Israel might care about and might shape the calculus but I don't think you've seen the bid Administration reach a decision on we'll pull this back and because the military operations are ongoing and they're not stopping the military support they're in a corner of their own making right they don't really know how to get out and so their reflex is unquestioned largely Full Tilt support for Israel the more Israel can say we're being persecuted ICC warrants you're pushing our Center Corner the Biden Administration will say oh my gosh but sorry we have to show you even more support despite everything we've seen over all these months okay thank you that's all the time we have for today's discussion but I want to thank all our guests Alon leel mu Rabani Akbar Shahed Ahmed thank you too for watching the program you can see it again anytime by visiting our website alo.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com/ AJ insidestory and you can also join the conversation on X our handle there is AJ insidestory from me Ser van and the whole team here in Doha bye for now [Music]

Channel: Al Jazeera English

Views: 128,410

Keywords: Al Jazeera, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden Gaza ceasefire deal, Biden Gaza ceasefire proposal, Biden ceasefire plan, Egypt, Gaza, Hamas, Israel, Israel War on Gaza, Israel gaza war, Israel hamas war, Israel war cabinet, Israel war on hamas, Israel-Palestine conflict, Israeli army, Israeli cabinet meets on ceasefire, Israeli captives, Israeli hostages, Israeli hostages in gaza, Palestine, Pressure growing for ceasefire, Qatar, United States, gaza war, gaza war mediators, joe biden

Id: V7Ks2JBp7e8

Length: 28min 5sec (1685 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 03 2024