Is Israel on the brink of war with Lebanon?

are Hezbollah and Israel on the brink of War Benin Netanyahu has promised an extremely powerful response to Hezbollah attacks some of which sparked dangerous wildfires this after Iran warns Israel would face a formidable defeat against Hezbollah can this standoff be de-escalated or will Israel's war on Gaza spread to Lebanon I'm Andrea sanki and this is the newsmakers [Music] antagonistic rhetoric between Israel Hezbollah and Iran is not uncommon but in the context of an Ever escalating war on Gaza that rhetoric is more dangerous than ever concerns that Israel's assault could spread to the rest of the region have been festering but with this week's Hezbollah attacks and Israel dramatically increasing its number of reservists are we about to see this war engulf parts of Lebanon as well here's a look now at the volatile relationship between Israel and Hezbollah the Israel Lebanon border is on fire Iran Allied Hezbollah and the Israeli Army have exchanged attacks since the war on Gaza began on October the 7th Israeli strikes have killed over 375 people including 80 civilians in Lebanon and the fighting has displaced tens of thousands of people from both sides this week Hezbollah Rockets triggered bushfires in Northern Israel in response on Wednesday Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited a town affected by the fires and warned that Israel won't sit idly by while hisbah attacks we are prepared for a very intense operation in the north one way or another we will restore security to the north on the same day his government called up 50,000 extra reservists and the farri right national security minister benav ramped up the rhetoric calling for a war with hisbah now idf's role is simply to destroy his bu no way a geographic region has been targeted been hit and people are evacuating no way there is quiet in Lebanon they burn here hisbah strongholds should be burned to destroy them War but hisbah says they won't stop until Israel's war on Gaza ends it's deputy chief shik Naim kasm told Al jazer that Hezbollah is not seeking a wider conflict but is ready to fight any War imposed on it any Israeli expansion of the war on Lebanon will be met with devastation destruction and displacement in [Music] Israel Israel and Lebanon have have fought several Wars the last one was in 2006 it ended with a un Security Council resolution setting a demarcation called the Blue Line Israeli forces would withdraw behind this line and un peacekeepers and the Lebanese Army control the area to the Lani River but over the years both sides have accused each other of violating it now Israel wants to push hisbah Fighters beyond the Lani River while its rhetoric for such a military operation in is growing louder the US says it is still hopeful for a diplomatic solution the statements from the Israeli government saying that they are ready for a military operation if necessary is different than saying that they have made a decision to conduct a military operation we are still in a place where we believe they prefer a diplomatic Solution that's what they've said to us and that's what we're pursuing so far the tit fortat attacks have been contained but as the exchange of words and fire escalates concerns are growing that the fighting could soon spiral into a serious War so is this just continuing but escalated rhetoric or are we acutely in danger of Another War breaking out joining me now to debate that and more are from Beirut former member of the Lebanese Parliament for the future movement Basim shab from Boston distinguished public policy fellow at the American University of Beirut Rami hurri and in New York Senior foreign policy writer at Newsweek magazine Tom ' Conor thanks all so much for being with me BOS I'll start with you you know we've spoken about military escalations recently in fact it was I think 3 months ago Israel hit uh the city of balbec that's deep in Lebanese territory but now Hezbollah is hitting Israel very hard again and Netanyahu is warning of this extremely powerful response so is this more of the same or are we actually on a slow and steady trajectory toward allout conflict well I think it's fair to say we've been in a state of War of Attrition now for a for a while and with a steady escalation but a very measured escalation uh none of the parties are willing to go further than that of note the Iranian acting foreign minister came to Beirut five days ago and he told hasah as I was told that Iran is not interested in escal but Iran will retaliate to Israeli aggression and so what we expect is escalation with hisbah using more advanced weapons more advanced technology and uh Israel also responding but without uh ground Invasion uh there is a consensus here that several factors prevent Israel from launching an allout war on Lebanon starting with the American position and with the fact that Israel is now fighting on two fronts and and and for n months and uh the the mood is that the rhetoric on the Israeli side doesn't really reflect a will uh to to engage in a war similar to the one in 2006 yeah yeah Ramy yes I mean there there have been two Israel Lebanon Wars before this uh one lasted almost two decades with no resolution really and the other as uh bosam was talking about in 2006 finished rather inconclusively as well so I mean can Israel afford a third war with Lebanon while it's bogged down in Gaza with with no resolution in sight there you know Israel is in about the worst possible strategic condition that it's ever been in its whole short modern history um it's bogged down in Gaza it's uh losing massive uh public opinion support all over the world including in the west the US government is pressuring it internally it's very divided it has no real plan for uh the future of relations with the Palestinians um and all Neta who can do is flex his muscles and sound like a cartoon Tough Guy um this is the Strat this is the strategy that Israel has always used and it's always been successful because it had the military advantage to do so uh and the its Arab opponents were not very capable this is a whole different world when facing these groups like Hamas and hisbah and others and the massive massive deterioration in his public position where the two highest courts in the world have basically accused it of of genocide and war crimes so I I don't think there's any way that Israel could realistically fight a full war in Lebanon um and the Hamas hasbalah has sent messages with its as Bassam said the advanced Weaponry it's using it's hit air uh it's hit army bases it's hit uh Iron Dome facilities uh set of fire forest fires uh Hezbollah is way more advanced now than it was in 2006 and the Israelis know that and they don't really have an answer to it so no I don't expect a uh a war but I expect a lot of U sort of warmongering rhetoric okay Tom what you think Israel or what you think Israel's position is right now and how much it can afford to escalate this rhetoric to the point that it would actually expand this war into Lebanon well I certainly agree that there's no shortage of reasons that make these conditions uh far from ideal uh for Israel to conduct such a major war um into Lebanon but at the same time I think we have to remember that this sort of management of escalation that's existed it's been sort of a dance between both sides of course unofficially um as to how far they're going to go um to sort of as as it was said Flex their muscles um without actually engaging in a broader uncontrolled escalation um there's limits to this there's serious limits to this there's a high risk of miscalculation here and this is something that I'm I'm I'm told by Israeli officials I'm told by Lebanese officials um there's a there's a major concern here that um it's a one major attack that goes too far I mean we look at the uh Iran uh Israel uh escalations that have happened over the years now um in Syria in particular and how that qu quickly escalated into a major Iranian missile and drone attack because there was a there was an error there was a mistake in this calculation um how how far Israel could go um in Syria against Iran now um we're looking at the situation um on the northern border Israel's northern border I mean Israel is striking deeper into into Lebanon um Lebanon and and and Hezbollah should say um is striking deeper into Israel using more sophisticated Weaponry um so yes I think there are are are strong reasons for both sides to not want to engage in this major war um but there are limits to how much that they can control the actual events on the ground while it's playing out with such intensity right now right and Tom you've written extensively about Iran's rhetoric in this uh you actually talked about how the Iranian leadership says Israel will face this formidable defeat against Hezbollah I mean how much does Iran's place here truly concern you or are they just saying what leaders have to say to to not appear weak in a situation like this sure well certainly there's a bit of both elements there you know Iranian officials have told me that they do not uh believe they would have to enter a a war um even if Israel were to invade Lebanon they're very they say they're very confident in hezbollah's capabilities to actually conduct that war independently but let's remember Hezbollah is one of Iran's strongest and oldest allies in the region um it views it as a key key Ally um near the Mediterranean and part of its broader axxis of resistance strategy and we've seen how this axis of resistance this uh informal Coalition of militias aligned with Iran um has really come to enter the phy since the beginning of this laa conflict in ways we've never seen it before in Iraq and Syria in Yemen particularly and we should expect that if there is a major conflict that erupts between Israel and Lebanon um then these groups would also enter in their own way and I think that Lebanon the particular risk here that very much differs from Raza is that it shares a border with Syria and really in many ways has supply lines that that connect directly to tan so um certainly these group um and perhaps udon itself would play a role likely in such a conflict that would be very different um than I think we've even seen in 18 years ago as well oh okay uh bosam let me come back to you you know hezbollah's Deputy leader Naim kasum has said if Israel wants a fullscale war we are ready I is there any chance do you think that that Hezbollah and Iran would ever consider just seizing this opportunity to take action against Israel because it sees Israel losing so much International aort now they might not go for an allout attack but something more uh behind the scenes and kind of subtle to to to do something destabilizing to Israel is that possible because they question being do they could they see this as an opportunity has B sees itself in a very good position right now it is the uh it is no longer a non-state actor or a militia in fact it is uh part of the Lebanese government uh the speaker of the parliament is the main negotiator on the part of hisbah even the major Powers consider hisbah the main actor in Lebanon that's a major difference with with Hamas in Gaza and the other is uh the situation on the ground seems in favor of hisbah for the first time there's a buffer zone inside Israel not inside Lebanon and although there's been a lot of Destruction in the Lebanese Villages most Lebanese even those who are opposed to the War uh do know that the economic costs on the Israeli side have been uh much greater than on the Lebanese side sobah has no interest in in escalation it has uh it is it is uh now the main negotiator in Lebanon it's part of the government and in the battlefield it has in the eyes of many won the war of attrition so far they have no interest in escalation so as far as you're concerned the Lebanese Army would never be dragged into this the Lebanese Army uh was not dragged into us and interestingly Israel has avoided hitting the Lebanese Army which is uh now delegated to the role of uh really uh internal security in many areas uh inside Lebanon that are not part of the conflict okay Ramy you know while Israel is making all these these threats and you know of all out attack tell us what what could or would Israel actually ultimately want to do in Lebanon you know they're not going to defeat Hezbollah because like Hamas part if not much of it is an ideology that will likely be emboldened if it's attacked and Israel cannot take Lebanese territory like it has Palestinian land or can it well Israel could probably go into Southern Lebanon for a little bit with its massive air superiority but but it wouldn't stay there I mean in 2006 they had to pull out and and sign a truce uh so what Israel your question long term what does Israel want in Lebanon Israel doesn't know what it wants anywhere in the Middle East Zionism the philosophy that established the state of Israel as a state for the Jewish people which was successful with British colonial support it succeeded and in 1948 Israel was set up ever since then Zionism has continued to drive a settler Colonial expansionist apartheid and now genocidal uh uh strategy to deal with its Arab neighbors and the Arab neighbors today are waiting different than they were in 48 or in 56 or in ' 67 you have now capable military forces um in uh Palestine in Lebanon in Yemen and in other places um I would I'm not at all looking at the Iran to get involved there there's an American obsession with uh Iran American British there's a Mania about Iran uh it's really the indigenous Arab resistance forces supported heavily by Arab public opinion in most Arab countries at all that's the real issue and Israel has to recognize that it's it's losing position right now in the conflict with Hamas and other Palestinian forces should force it to do what the South Africans had to do which is to come to terms with its with its foundational philosophy and change it change it in a way that it can live peacefully with its Palestinian citizens and and Arab neighbors uh so what we need is a is a definition of Zionism and a containment of Zionism and the Arabs have all made offers to live in peace with uh Israel as a Jewish majority State and at 67 borders um and other issues so we the possibility of a peaceful resolution is there the Israelis have never considered it they've never responded to the Arab peace offers so this is this is the problem the problem is is Zionism well and and the problem as well is just Netanyahu because Tom I mean it is actually in netanyahu's interest to draw out this war in Gaza and threaten Lebanon the way it has as if that's the next front to kind of keep Israelis in fear um saying that our enemies are are coming closer look how they're they're encroaching on our borders and we need to keep fighting and there therefore he can keep himself in office well that's certainly a major concern you know from all sides internationally and with an Israel itself I mean we have to we we've seen these divisions emerging between um Netanyahu and some of the military leadership and even some of the other uh political sort of factions that exist there um regarding the course of this conflict how it's being handled you know the biggest um thing that's emerged I think lately is really the just the response to the ceasefire deal that was unveiled last week by President Biden and you know um there's been a lot of controversy over what was presented on stage versus what was actually received in Hand by both Hamas and Israeli officials and the mediators of course um both sides really have said that this is not really what they expected based on that speech so you know this is this ceasefire attempt was also seen White House officials told us as a hope to um sort of U plate the situation on the border as well um but there's no indication right now a week later that this is moving forward anyway and what is moving forward though is the calendar towards uh September which is the beginning of the Israeli school year which has been uh really discussed many times and also in private conversations with me um as uh the date um that uh Israel would like to see some sort of a normaly a semblance of normaly restored on the border now it's very unlikely even if the war were to start tomorrow that that could be accomplished so really um what we have to look at right now is is how is Netanyahu himself responding to these pressure points both domestically and externally um there is reason to believe that when he says that we're going to experience intense North that we could very well see that now there's a few things that could happen one could be obviously the all that war we're talking about is a prize attack which some um Israeli military analysts I've talked to have advocated for others have looked for a more limited precise operation one that um as bam said would continue to avoid Lebanese infrastructure because the biggest concern here is not just the fact that Israel could suffer a a major defeat in Lebanon um perhaps in the short term or the long term but also really the blow to the international image this is not something United States wants to see and um the scenes that we've seen in in Gaza of Destruction certainly is something that um would be very sensitive um to the the eyes of people watching what's going on in beut right so I quickly Tom I mean how far can Israel actually push this Lebanon front and threaten this military action before it negatively affects you know Israel's Partners um and that they will have to stand up and do something about it you know including the US of course but also France and Germany I mean France is very close uh with Lebanon and they want Israel's Army nowhere near uh an invasion Point well France has been going through exhaustive efforts um for years now um to try to come up with some sort of working solution not just to to the southern border situation but also to lebanon's political deadlock um I I I think what it comes down to right now is that Hezbollah as was said um before um feels it enjoys the advantage right now it is established the buffer zone on the Israeli side has been a bit of a reversal of roles right now with Israel really um feeling the economic and social um an addition of course to the military sort of toll of where the conflict is right now um so I wouldn't expect to see um Hezbollah or Iran or the all various allies on that side of the equation really um looking to um go beyond what they've done before there now of course um in the event of further Israeli escalations I think that we'll see again that steady sort of um increase in tempo of of not just the size scale but also the sophistication of these attacks and that again goes back to my first point of the serious threat that all parties have identified of a major miscalculation that could quickly lead to a war um that that that certainly would not be able to be controlled by any side um until um some sort of broader resolution is really found here um to the situation laza to the situation the Border um with the UN SC resolution 17 one um you know there are Frameworks that have been introduced but as of yet they're very far from being realized bossam I want to get your thoughts on that oh sorry Romy go ahead yeah can I just make a thought there Tom said the major miscalculation the major miscalculation that Israel and Zionism made is that 100 years ago they thought as happened in the colonial World they can move into the land of Palestine which was 93% Palestinian owned and inhabited six7 % indigenous Jews they thought they could go in there take it over with Colonial British support and then later with American Colonial support and the Arabs would uh the Palestinians would would turn you know turn over and and lie down and die it hasn't happened I mean it was the most extraordinary uh criminal activity audacious but also failed because you've had this massive resistance from the Palestinians and now from other people around the region even non Arabs like Iran and the turs come in and out and other people get so that's the miscalculation really we have to well let me ask bosome though quickly and I I want to go back to the question primarily with Tom earlier and the International Community Partners let me say International Partners role here because France has been quite supportive of Israel but it also has extremely close ties with Lebanon and if Israel continues to push this front and this rhetoric where would that leave a country like France for example would we finally have to see um some tougher talk come from Paris uh the French so far have been more involved in in internal politics in Lebanon and the election of the president and it is well known that any arrangement with Israel falls under the domain of the United States and and the uh and the and Mr Hawkin Amos Hawkin who previously successfully negotiated a naval deal actually between hisbah and and Israel so uh France has a limited role to play in a in in a ceasefire of sorts between Hezbollah and Israel it's the Americans who will have to do the the heavy work the thing is there are two important dates one is the date that uh Netanyahu addresses The Joint session of Congress and surely he's not going to launch a major war and go to Congress and the other is November 5 the election of a new president uh and Israel is not going to confront the uh either the second term of Biden or uh or Trump's with with a major escalation in Lebanon so I I I do see practically from a Israeli point of view there's a window there where Israel can escalate or maybe pursue a a local uh incursion in Lebanon but after November five the door closes uh Tom 30 seconds final thoughts sure well I'll just say to the point before about uh what bam had said about the sort of the international image of this and the and the cause of the Palestinians you know there were serious indications that prior to October 7 that this cause had really taken a Wayside for many parts of the Arab world I'm talking about the governments not the people of course you know with the Abraham Accords and clearly both with hamas's efforts and and the axis of resistance's efforts and broadly um of the main uh victories here that they can claim on the world stage has really been to raise this file again and of course it's something that's deeply controversial um and troubling for Israel so I think we should also keep an eye out on the Diplomatic front here as well okay Tom o Conor that will have to be the final word for this edition of the newsmakers I'd like to thank all three of my panelists so much for spending this time with us our viewers of course for joining us as well remember you can follow us on X and do be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel I'm Andrea sanki we'll see you next time [Applause] [Music]

Channel: The Newsmakers

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Length: 25min 55sec (1555 seconds)

Published: Fri Jun 07 2024