War in Gaza: Israel ever more isolated? | To the Point

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure to support a new truce and hostage release plan the plan was tabled by the US Israel's closest Ally as an Israeli endorsed road map for an enduring ceasefire to the conflict that has been raging since the 7th of October attack by the terror group Hamas Netanyahu labeled the plan a nonstarter and insists that Israel will keep fighting until Hamas is eliminated today we're asking war in Gaza is Israel ever more [Music] [Music] isolated hello and welcome to to the point it is my pleasure to greet our guests Ronan schanker is a reporter and columnist for the German daily the Su saong Marcus ble heads the security table with a focus on the Middle East at the online in-depth briefing service table media and it's great to welcome Kristen hellberg back to the show she's an independent author and journalist with extensive experience in the Middle East so an all German panel this week to get a perspective from here in the heart of Europe and Ronan if I may let me start with you and ask you to talk a little bit about the current situation as I mentioned Joe Biden claimed that this plan was endorsed and devised by Israel yet Netanyahu has not exactly embraced it what chances would you give this plan of succeeding where so many others have failed well Joe Biden is able to threaten Israel with something very substantial with the um with pulling back the support which is so um well essential to Israel's security so even though Netanyahu is reluctant and many in his Coalition are even more reluctant to stop the fighting they're left with no other choice but to Cave to the pressure from Washington and we want to talk a little bit later about that us uh support and how far it goes kisten International frustration with Netanyahu and with the Israeli campaign uh faced uh a spike after an an Israeli air strike uh hit a tent camp in Rafa and killed 45 uh displaced people what exactly is the current situation now in Gaza and what are you hearing the situation is devastating and we are hearing even more attacks the IDF the Israeli Army saying that they are attacking they are going against Hamas militants and they are killing Hamas fighters on a regular basis but at the same time they are a lot of civilians being killed in these uh attacks we have then dozens of victims uh among civilians and this is the whole question it's about the question how is this war being led we have a hunger crisis that is intensifying because the crossing the Rafa Crossing keeps to be closed after Israel took military control of this so everything goes into another Crossing K Shalom Crossing and we see that even if the humanitarian Aid gets in which has uh dropped a lot during the last few weeks even when it gets in it's very difficult to distribute it due to a lack of fuel and due to a lack of security for humanitarian Aid workers as well so the situation is even more catastrophic and devastating than ever before I think Mar as I mentioned uh Netanyahu has said that he will keep the campaign going despite uh the pressure uh until the terror group Hamas is eliminated in other words he is looking to keep the military option open how compatible is that with this ceasefire plan would it uh allow him some room to maneuver yes it does allow him room to maneuver and his main aim to eliminate M as a military organization and as an organization which is able to rule Gaza uh includes the military option and I think in the long run netan or no Israeli government prime minister whomsoever will not give up the the right to intervene in Gaza at any time of the conflict so even if there is a ceasefire or a peace solution in the long run Israel as in the West Bank will send forces in to fight terrorism let's take a closer look at this three-phase plan it promises an end to the conflict the release of the hostages and reconstruction of Palestinian territory and it comes at a time when as we just heard the situation in Gaza is increasingly dire as is the desperation of Israelis pleading for the return of family members still being held hostage 8 months of war and a humanitarian and crisis in the Gaza Strip the people are suffering and they wish for only one thing it's enough we pray to God for a ceasefire we have lost so much we have lost all of our loved ones we have nothing left we need a ceasefire we have been broken and humiliated then a few days ago US President Biden presented a peace plan for Gaza it's time to begin this new state age for the hostages to come home for Israel to be secure for the suffering to stop it's time for this war to end for the day after to begin the plan has phases beginning with a ceasefire followed by the release of hostages and ultimately leading to the rebuilding of the destroyed Gaza Strip can the Biden initiative bring peace to the region let me put that question to Ronan and also ask you to unpack the three phases of this plan uh if you would briefly and tell us where you see the biggest challenges especially in regard to the transition from the temporary ceasefire to the full cessation of hostilities how workable is that transition going to be given netanyahu's desire to hang on to the military option so I think peace is a very big word let's imagine this plan goes through what is Hamas going to do Hamas is going to be allowed to regroup to retreat to rearm themselves and to Stage the next attack on Israel in another two or three years as they have done in the past in the past 20 years whenever they were defeated and they were allowed to continue to rule in Gaza and to smuggle arms into the Gaza Strip so this is the I would say positive uh Outlook that Hamas can connect to this um to this deal and what does it mean for Israel for Israel this is not a a perspective of Peace this is a perspective of continuing a status quo which is increasingly untenable for the Israeli Society so I can understand that from an Israeli government perspective it's very difficult to agree to this deal what I can't understand and what I think also Bears uh also is is is worth uh highlighting is why Hamas is um not jumping and and and and celebrating this chance because all they have to do to get this incredibly positive deal for them is to let hostages out Children civilians who are in some dark cellers in the Gaza Strip crying for their mothers at night something that is unconscionable to all Palestinians also and that just shows you what kind of a criminal organization they are with disregard to the life of their own population and that of any other country Kristen yeah please react to that uh Biden actually claims that the Israeli campaign has already achieved what it's set out to do rendered Hamas incapable of launching another attack similar to October 7th but Ronan says well they're just going to use this first phase or SEC even first and second phases of the plan to regroup and get ready to act again would you agree with that or do you think Biden is right no I mean we definitely agree on the nature of Hamas there's no doubt about it but we are seeing that this war and the way it is Led does not lead to a defeat of Hamas we are seeing that for eight months this aim of total Victory is not working out because whenever the Israeli Army withdraws from an area within Gaza that had just captured Hamas is regrouping so it's not going to work like this Hamas has to be kept away from power it has to be demilitarized by political means and what Hamas is asking in this deal is a permanent ceasefire an end to this war and this is basically what most of the world wants to uh get this is what President Biden himself says we need an end to this war at this time because it's not working out the plan so I would argue that yes it's time to The crucial point is how do we get from phase one to phase two because phase one says let's uh free the female and children hostages and the elderly and then talk about whether they will be a permanent ceasefire later on Hamas is saying we will not agree to release any hostages without the guarantee by the us to stop this war definitely uh and um permanently so this is the whole point and I think that right now now within the Israeli public and according to the families of the hostages especially the pressure is really mounting on Netanyahu to say okay we have to give everything we have to give in because the priority now has to be the hostages especially given the fact that there have been some Dead uh bodies of the hostages have been found within Gaza so the pressure is mounting and I think the only way to stop this is to agree to a permanent ceasefire and then to dismantle Hamas and find a solution for post-war Gaza how do you dismantle them if you don't we can talk about this you withdraw which is the plan if you withdraw from if the Israeli military withdraws from the Gaza Strip how do you dismantle them an alternative to step in who let me get marus yeah let me get Marcus to weigh in here uh be a tiebreaker as it were is dismantling Hamas more of a political question than it is a military one we've seen that uh Israel says that it has now uh successfully gained operational control of the 14 kilm long I believe it is Corridor between Gaza and Egypt after having destroyed many Terror organization tunnels there would you say that in fact does confirm Biden's claim that at least temporarily for some amount of time Hamas is no longer able to perpetrate military attacks and does that then provide a basis for moving toward a political solution I don't think we're anywhere close to see Hamas dismantled militarily and I think uh the dispute if this ceasefire is going to be temporary or permanent is in the center of all discussions if this three-phase plan can come to a lang longer political solution so I think it's also important to see that the Israeli government is all but a monolithic block and if you listen to some of the voices from the Israeli Defense Forces they differentiate between uh stopping Hamas from being able to govern Gaza and from defeating it militarily completely so I think yes you can reach the point that Hamas will not be able to govern Gaza but uh with the peace plan or the three-phase plan on the table right now you will not reach a complete military defeat of Hamas Ron how monolithic is the Israeli government really we see two right-wing ministers threatening to walk out if Netanyahu does agree to the ceasefire plan on the other hand we also see a somewhat more moderate and very popular politician Benny Gans saying that he uh is going to walk out if there is not a clear plan for how to govern Gaza by June 8th so again very very much uh Netanyahu Under Pressure here also from within own Coalition as usual I would say for Israeli politics look there are two roads that he can go down one road is to say let's not listen to the Americans let's go down the road we wanted to go down and carry on until we uh pleased that we've uh sufficiently beaten Hamas this will take forever this is not something that you can ever reach this is probably what a majority of the Israeli public wants uh it's I think too easy to say it's only the right- Wingers I think it's the majority of the Israeli Society who says we will never be able to sleep we will never be able to relax knowing that there is this terrorist entity waiting for the next chance to get back out our next and the other road that you couldn't go down is um to uh to if you and if if you disagree with the Americans and they will withdraw their military support and then Security will collapse so there's not like there's not one good way to go and given that dilemma I think uh netan and the Israeli public is not not left with a choice if the Americans are going to pull the plug and they're going to stop their Military Support which is a threat that's on the table you have to listen to that otherwise you're going to be completely alone then let's talk about that American Support uh Marcus the table it wasn't a piece by you but one of your colleagues recently attributed gans's uh decision to uh threaten to break uh with Netanyahu to American foreign policy uh and I'd like to know why you see this that context and also how far you think Biden would go clearly Biden is now trying to uh express some disappointment with his very close friend uh BB but do you really think that the current uh disappointment in Washington could lead to a real cut off of crucial arms supplies if you look back at the LA in the to the last eight month the Americans were staunchly supporting Israel there's been a delivery of arms which has not been delivered but ever since then arms kept on going to Israel but of course it's a leverage from the American side to threaten to stop the security support for Israel talking about guns the West including the German government is desperately looking for an alternative to Netanyahu and Benny gun was this man but looking back in the past Benny guns is not that popular in Israel as he sometimes post supposes to be he's been in a government with netan even though before those elections he said I'm never going to go into a coalition with netan so that's a bit the the situation we have on that issue so domestic politics uh suggesting that this moment might be opportune for gun given the fact that there is this Rising pressure on Netanyahu yes but let's see what happens after June 8th I have my doubts that guns will really leave the war cabinet meanwhile gun's condition sorry uh but but perhaps just one point to that gun's condition here a workable long-term plan for governing Gaza is not exactly something you come up with overnight what might a credible governance structure look like you've said the only way to really cut off Hamas is to find workable governance that doesn't include uh the terror organization and this is something that not only Benny guns but the IDF the mosad the security operators within Israel is asking this government to deliver and the US have been asking this for months so this is really the big critical point against Natan to to give us a vision because fighting without a political strategy is not leading anywhere so what the idea is that Israel cannot stay there forever as a military power this is what the radical ministers benva and smotri dream about they want to resettle Gaza but this is not what the military and other political leaders are aiming at so the idea is who FS the vacuum vacuum once the Israeli Army withdraws and it has to be some kind of Palestinian entity there has been a lot of talks about a de of a government of technocrats it has to be without any Hamas um people obviously the pa the Palestinian Authority would be the The Entity that should be yes leading this but it has to be reformed it has to be more credible it has to fight corruption this is where the European Union and the other Arab states come in to forces and there have been talks going on between different countries in the region who try exactly this so the idea is that we have a Palestinian entity taking over that is being supported from outside by a us-led multinational Force consisting of different Arab Nations the Europeans and obviously the US that have to guarantee the security of Israel because Israel will only agree to withdraw whenever the US can guarantee that there will be no danger coming out of Gaza so this is the short-term road map for the Arab to go into this and to work with this they have to make sure that there's a long-term perspective for a Palestinian state for some kind of Palestinian sovereignty otherwise they will not be ready to go in there and just work as the police forces for an Israeli occupation or security control and uh you mentioned uh the countries in the region in fact meanwhile the US is also now trying to revive the prospect of an Israeli Saudi normalization deal Arab countries have in fact been criticized for a response to the crisis that is considered by some of our observers to be largely symbolic and rather feeble could the same be said of other International actors now putting pressure on Netanyahu let's take a closer look Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is coming under increasing pressure more and more countries are criticizing the Israeli Army's severe actions in the Gaza Strip the chief prosecutor of the international criminal court recently requested arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Hamas leaders the accusations against Netanyahu deliberate attacks on the civilian population and using starvation as a weapon of war in the Gaza Strip charges against Hamas include war crimes and crimes against humanity additionally an increasing number of EU countries now recognize Palestine as a state most recently Slovenia Spain Ireland and Norway had also just taken this step in order to support two-state solution in the region domestically Netanyahu is also facing increasing pressure the farri politician and Coalition partner itama Bena threatens to break up the Coalition if Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire opposition leader Benny Gans who is also a member of the war cabinet is calling for new elections and resistance is also growing among the population tens of thousands of Israelis are taking to the streets demanding the release of hostages and the quick resignation of the head of government how isolated is Netanyahu let me put that question to you Marcus how isolated is Netanyahu at the moment and does international pressure really matter to him given that he is fighting for his political survival at home of course he's under pressure of major International un institutions face uh confrontation to Israeli politics you have the ICC which is uh deciding about issuing arrest warrants against netan against defense minister Galant also against Hamas leaders you've had the recognition of the state or so-called state of Palestine by more than 140 states which increases the isolation and um the question how Israel is going to get out of that with the United Nations facing it so directly is uh the one which will be decided in the coming weeks Ronan I know you have a legal background so let me ask you to take us on a deeper dive in regard both to the international criminal court arrest warrants and also the international Court of justices ruling that Israel must halt any military offensive in Rafa that could harm civilians juridically do these char charges and the ruling have Merit um so the question is it's it's doubtful whether the um claim of genocide has Merit the claim of genocide which was um raised by South Africa and brought to the international court of justice in the ha the court of justice has not yet thrown that out they've used this opportunity to um warn Israel from uh disproportionate attacks but they've not decided on the merits of genocide and I think it's very doubtful that they will in the end say this is genocide because crimes against humanity crimes against humanity probably also doubtful war crimes yes and the international criminal court which is a lot more precise and a lot more uh has a higher threshold jurdic has decided to uh level accusations against both the Israeli and the Hamas leadership of essentially war crimes using methods of War which are illegal it's they're not claiming that Israel does not have the right to self-defense in to the opposite they are explicitly reinforcing that Israel has this right but they're saying even if you have a just cause for war this is not justify every method so one method that they're pointing out is hunger whatever your goals are in a war it never can justify letting or stopping uh the shipment of food and water and electricity to uh to civilian population and thus putting pressure on people who it's not not the choice of their own to be in this war zone so uh to to give you just a brief um Outlook the judges at the international criminal court will decide in a few weeks whether they will issue the arrest warrants against both the Hamas leadership and netan and Galant and I think uh it's very likely that they will uh agree to um issue these arrest warrants meaning that netan and Galant will never be able to travel to Europe ever again Kristen um how do you see the political impact of these two uh International uh Court uh uh decisions or at least the the prospect of the arrest warrants on the one hand and the ruling uh about how Israel should prosecute its military campaign on the other are they largely symbolic could they even reinforce the intransigence of Netanyahu and his government well I think what we have to stress right now is what these International courts are trying to do is to change the situation Within Gaza it's not about defining do we have a genocide or not it's about how to prevent that a genocide could possibly happen so this is behind the idea the idea is how to Implement International humanitarian law against whoever breaks it be it a democratically elected leadership be it a dictatorship be it a terrorist group so this is important here to stress it's not about pressuring an Israeli government or um discrediting Israel as a state it's about implementing International humanitarian law as far as the two uh courts we are talking about about the recognition of Palestine this is obviously it's symbolic but I think it comes out of the idea that we saw with the 7th of October these horrible crimes committed there that we cannot go back to a situation before where we just neglected the whole subject we have to understand that without a Palestinian State and some kind of sovereignty a life of Palestinians in dignity in uh in Freedom there will not be a solution to this conflict and the idea of countries like Ireland or uh Spain is to stress this that these people are now these countries are committed to this two-state solution that for a too long time has just been held up as some kind of you know declaration without doing anything to implement this so this is a major step and it's a symbolic it's a signal as well to the Palestinians to not give up hope and to believe in some kind of political solution to prevent terrorist crimes that we just saw Marcus last question very brief answer if you would our title asks whether Israel is ever more isolated would you say increasing isolation will make a difference in getting us closer to a cessation of the conflict I don't think so I think with Germany and the US uh standing so closely on Israel's side I think they will get out of this situation despite the recognition of Palestine and the Court decisions which we have talked thank you very much to all of you for being with us and thanks to all all of you out there for tuning in look at our website and tell us what you think see you soon [Music]

Channel: DW News

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Keywords: DW News, israel, israel allies, israel support, israel news, to the point, netanyahu, war in gaza, gaza war, israel war

Id: iDuSFY-B8uY

Length: 25min 50sec (1550 seconds)

Published: Fri Jun 07 2024