Fortunately, in fact, in the international community, in addition to paying attention to the visit meeting that will be held tomorrow, everyone is also paying attention to the current situation of the Israel-Kazakhstan war. Now, people in this Western hospital are beginning to ask why a hospital in Israel is like this . They said that we must attack it and now they are saying that because it is all Hamas , we must destroy it before we can really fully control Hamas. Basically, so far they have I just said it directly. Because people are now required to move directly to the south , the original human shields are gone. Currently, their second person, called Sinwar , is already under the tunnels. Now the Israeli military has completely controlled these tunnel corridors , so now they are also He is trapped in the tunnel, and it sounds like he is already trapped. But so far, Hamas has begun to make some kind requests for a ceasefire. The reason is because they said that there are 70 hostages currently with them. They have women and children on their hands , and they hope to release them. They ask Qatar , the third party that has been coordinating whether a ceasefire is possible, to tell Israel that if they ceasefire for five days and it is a comprehensive ceasefire, it is not a stop here. If there is a complete ceasefire for 4 hours and 5 days , we will let all the 70 hostages go home. But the Israeli side directly said that we can't stop it now because we have just mastered it. At the same time, we must Pushing them into a desperate situation in one breath , they have already begun to prepare for the second stage of the attack . This is reported by the Washington Post, saying that they actually include the West Bank of the Jordan River and other places . Related preparations are because local Palestinians have said that even the West Bank has a feeling of suffocation in the West Bank . The reason is that not only have restrictions been raised , but even violence has become more rampant. So far, they are comprehensive on the Israeli side. The ground is under siege. Even Hezbollah said that it was speaking for them through the Arab channels in Lebanon , so they directly banned them . To what extent? Some articles including those in support of Palestine are now said to be banned in social media. Deleted article , so if you have seen the watermelon article recently, the reason why it appeared is because its color scheme is the same as the flag of Palestine. What they want to support is the unfair treatment of Palestine. Basically, so far , this world The good reason why the situation has been changing during the war is because many people in the US State Department have jumped out to support Palestine. Blinken has now responded by saying that he respects but still supports Israel's self-defense. Biden has also spoken now and said, in fact, you Western hospitals should protect the hospital. Some people said this. Is it because Israel is telling them not to move ? Later, the White House immediately clarified and responded, saying that they only hope to protect and reduce civilian casualties. Biden will also promote it now. Indonesia has come to help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but the question is whether the United States has taken any action in this entire war. The good reason is because now everyone has been saying that hospitals cannot be used as human shields , or Biden has also said that hospitals should be protected . Hospitals , but the US side previously said that a plane crashed involving 5 soldiers in the Mediterranean. The 5 soldiers were killed. At that time, they said they were doing aerial refueling training . But now it is said that the 5 soldiers on the plane were killed. The US military is special operators. So why do special operators and their helicopters fly near the Mediterranean? What are they doing ? In this battle, Biden is talking about this and that. Is there any hope of actually preventing civilian casualties ? What is his attitude? Why go back and ask Commissioner Zhengyuan how to look at it? The Israeli army has already said that the Western Hospital must be attacked because it is the headquarters of Hamas. Judging from yesterday's information, Hamas has reached the point where it has run out of ammunition and reinforcements. Hamas is an armed political party. This party has a total of 20 Politburo members. As of yesterday, 12 Politburo members were killed. Now its number one and number two are actually commanding the number two or so. Figure 3 is currently locked in the tunnel, so for the Israeli army, he wants to blockade these leaders to negotiate for the return of the hostages. He has reached this stage because Hamas has lost energy in the ground operations because he Without foreign aid and supplies, an army without foreign aid and supplies will naturally easily lose its fighting power. For the United States, its international reputation has plummeted this time , especially in Muslim countries. The third world and southern countries are basically except for the G7 . His energy reputation has plummeted , but he still has strong support in the G7. Take yesterday as an example. Yesterday, German Chancellor Scholz publicly said that he does not agree with the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine. He believes that if you have a ceasefire now, Hamas will come back and there will be enough. If the war starts again with ammunition , it will continue to prolong, so his position is to oppose the ceasefire with Israel. Even Xiaoz said so. You can imagine other countries such as the United Kingdom, etc. So if there are big and wealthy countries like the G7 supporting Israel, what will happen to Israel? It's like a protective film. So even though there are so many people who are dissatisfied, Israel has successfully opened several so-called designated paths of the catwalk in the past two days to evacuate civilians or so-called refugees. There are only a few hospitals left . Israel said that it would evacuate the people in the hospital itself when necessary. What does that mean that it wants to fight the final battle ? Hamas has no chance of winning. When the war first broke out, I judged that the war would end in about 1 to 2 months. However, many netizens disagreed with me and said why I did not sympathize with the Palestinians. I am judging now rationally and calmly. The outcome is indeed going in this direction. What remains is how to clean up after the war. So of course the United States has to ask Indonesia, the most populous Muslim country in the world, to help see if it can deal with the aftermath. Because Indonesia has a very special role. Although it is a Muslim country , It reacted relatively mildly when it came to Israel, Palestine or Russia and Ukraine, so it has enough role to play the possible arrangement of a two-country system in the future or some kind of arrangement that can assist the United States or even appease other Muslim countries. It may not necessarily directly help Israel and Palestine. Of course, Biden's most urgent thing now is to hope that some American hostages can be released smoothly, which will be helpful to his re-election campaign. If these American hostages die, people will think This account is settled on Biden's head. This is Biden's true state. Biden will not care at all about what will happen if Israel continues to fight . The results of Israel's fight are probably already foreseeable. Hezbollah in Lebanon will not really follow. There is too much conflict in Israel because Hezbollah in Lebanon must show that it has enough weight in the Muslim world, so it sends one or two words to symbolically hit Israel. Israel knows very well that it is not hitting an important place, so of course Israel will In terms of propaganda, we should restrict its channels or respond to force. But it seems that Hezbollah and Israel have a tacit understanding and they are not really going to start a war. So this is related to your opinion on whether the Israeli-Palestinian war will expand. I will be the first to judge. It is consistent to say that it will not expand and will not affect oil prices. As for the Palestinians in the West Bank, it will be harder during this period, but in the future their ruling power may also enter Gaza , because Gaza and the West Bank have already changed. The two sides have almost no contact with each other. Now in the future, it may be better to hand it over to Abbas to rule the Gaza Corridor. In fact, Biden has jumped out to speak about the West African hospital . Of course, this is the reason, because everyone is We say that civilians should not be harmed , but everyone must also ask what role the US military played in this war . Because there are now reports that a US military plane crashed near the Mediterranean Sea, and the five people on it were actually It was the personnel of the U.S. Special Forces who told me they were doing refueling training, etc. Is this really true? Come on, Commissioner Yu Fang. When the war broke out in the United States, the United States immediately shipped weapons to Israel. The first batch of weapons included precision bombs . I think where did the bombs used to blow up the buildings in Gaza come from ? So of course the United States played a role in it. In the operation against Gaza, the United States also sent personnel. Their external statement was that they wanted to help rescue the hostages because the United States Where are the hostages being held ? But with the close relationship between the United States and Israel, think about it. What is it doing by sending so many ships to the waters near Israel ? The missiles launched by the Yemeni rebels are aimed at Who intercepted the Israeli missile ? The one that came from the sea was an American warship that intercepted it. So this also shows that the United States, of course, must help Israel. Frankly speaking, this war is worthy of our observation. The reason is because the United States has been telling us to prepare for urban warfare and street fighting, but it has not mentioned tunnel warfare. This is an observation point for us , because many so-called professional scholars were also analyzing and talking about this war beforehand. Because Israel also fought so-called tunnel wars in this place 10 years ago and suffered losses, they believed that after such a long period of time, they were more capable of operating these tunnel wars. These were Hamas , but in fact the war was going on . Which side wins or loses, and what is the real key to victory or defeat? In fact, when studying war, there is a very cruel but very effective method , which is to count the bodies. You know that as of last night, the Israeli army was in Gaza on October 27. It has been about 17 days since the war began . 16 17 days later, the number of people killed is 45. It turned out that the Israeli military estimated that they were preparing to enter Gaza to fight. The maximum number of deaths would be 700 to 800, and the minimum number would be 600. The results so far . I think most of this war has passed, maybe about 1/3 of it is left. Only 45 people died during this war. Do you think that’s a lot? Do you think Hamas is really that powerful? Because Israel has not done so in the past 10 years. He was carefully studying what kind of weapons and tactics they would use to deal with them when they return to Gaza one day to fight. So you see why he so brutally blew up 10,000 people in buildings one by one. Many Palestinians believe that in order to deal with the so-called Hamas people, they must blow up the building and cover the exits and entrances at the same time. This way , the troops you attack will be less likely to be affected . Ambush , so this is what I am talking about. He has always told us to prepare for urban war. So if this urban war really breaks out in Taiwan, the old Communist Party will learn something here. He will definitely be very cruel if he wants to enter Taipei. Destroying many buildings in Taipei first is worth learning from. Can Hamas survive ? To be honest, it is because he has tunnels. How can we dig tunnels in Taipei City? You tell me, right ? So this means that we have to be very cruel , but we must refer to the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza. What does it mean to us in Taiwan? What can we learn ? But I am very unfavorable to Hamas. I sympathize with the poor Palestinians , but the cruel side of this war is that they have already lost this war. Please ask Mr. Lai. Gaza is about the size of Taipei. If North Gaza is north of the Gaza River, then what do you think? Cut off 1/3 of Taipei. This war has been fought on 1/3 of Taipei. It has been going on for more than two weeks and three weeks. If we start counting from October 7, then it has been 20 years since Israel started bombing. It’s November 14th , which means the fight has been going on for a month and a week. So far , since the information from Hamas and the Gaza area has been basically cut off , the information that can flow out is very limited in Israel. The news that can be released is relatively complete and rich . In the propaganda war itself, the news war will produce two different statuses. This situation is also very similar to the war between Russia and Ukraine . Once a conflict breaks out, we see that most of the news about Russia is released from the United States. Russian news agencies, including Russian news agencies, are basically blocked by European and American countries. So at the beginning, everyone thought that this was like a war. The results are different. In a short period of time, we have seen that Russia has occupied more than 120,000 square kilometers of land, almost 130,000 square kilometers. So far, it has controlled about 120,000 square kilometers of land. Taiwan is three times as big as Taiwan, which is not Taipei City . It has been controlled three times as long as the Uzbek army's counterattack has been ineffective. In June this year, the European and American media also publicized that the Uzbek army's counterattack was very powerful. As a result, we saw that the entire Uzbek army was stuck in that place and stagnated in that place. How long will it take to fight? I don’t know what day it will be. The current situation is like this. There is an outbreak in Gaza. The hospital you just mentioned in Western France is a very big hospital. There are currently more than 2,000 people in the hospital , including the vast majority . Some of the staff, doctors and paramedics, refused to evacuate. They believed that they were unwilling to leave until the injured were evacuated. Israel accused that there was a Hamas command center inside. Hamas denied it, and the local doctors also denied it, but we also We are not sure if Israel will find its command center after it infiltrates. We are not sure because this news is basically supplied by Israel. Israel also supplied another video saying that they saw it when they infiltrated a children's hospital. There is an underground tunnel and a tunnel that is said to be the command center of Hamas. However, many people doubt that it should be an emergency shelter and not like a command center. Anyway, basically all the information is on the Israeli side. Therefore The place we can be sure of is where it is so far. It is one-third of the size of Taipei, one and a half months, one month and one week. Israel has not been able to completely control the news. What the artificial satellite detects is Israel’s original deployment in Northern Gaza. There were more than 300 tanks, and now there are only more than 200 left. Where did the more than 100 go ? There is news that these more than 100 were brought back for repairs . In other words, these more than 100 are very likely to enter the country. In North Gaza, some were attacked and some were paralyzed and then pulled back, etc. But at least there were only more than 200 vehicles left . This is the objective information we have received. What does this mean? It represents the end of this melee. Frankly speaking , Biden in the United States is not sure, and neither is Netanyahu. In fact, this war has so far been held at the Xi Jinping meeting tomorrow. Everyone said that the situation in this region will be mentioned , and the other aspect is now. Yellen has already met with Lan Foan today . During the meeting with the Treasury Secretary, everyone began to ask the United States how they will face China this time. The reason is that in the past few years they have developed a term called friendly shore outsourcing. At that time, 2022 What Yellen mentioned for the first time is friendly shore outsourcing, which is to bring my friends in to compete with China. Who was the winner at that time? Who did they go to? India and Vietnam. So what is the current progress of these things ? For example, let’s take India ’s foreign direct investment figures. In 2020, the United States accounted for 22%. It is now ranked second. But is there really a comparison ? Look at Vietnam. Vietnam now has a new figure to provide you. They The Prime Minister has admitted that this year's economic growth can only maintain 5%. Even in Q4 , which is the fourth quarter, Ho Chi Minh City may increase the number of layoffs . As for why this part of India was previously The reason why it was brought in is because the Chinese side of Apple's supply chain can move it all over . Now Apple tells you that everything we sell in the mainland will be assembled in the mainland. The reason is because the mainland side has said that our side If the product is assembled in India , then we won’t buy it. Now Apple is so scared that it has to clarify that it has something to do with the market , and of course it has something to do with sensitive diplomacy, national conditions and national sentiments. In fact, at this Xi Jinping meeting, everyone has been talking about how difficult it is for Xi Jinping to appear. When he returned to the United States, he said that what he wanted to see was a 31-year-old friend from his youth. At that time, he visited Iowa and lived in an American home. Now this group of friends has been invited to come to San Francisco, California. Let's have dinner together and you will find out who is the first American you have met since the beginning of the year. Didn't he meet Bill Gates for the first time at that time? Later, he met Kissinger , met the Flying Tigers , and now An old friend from Iowa even said that when he came to the United States this time, he originally wanted to meet his old friend first, that is, he wanted to attend this business meeting and then meet with Biden. However, he was immediately yelled "NO" by the White House. What 's the reason? Look at Ge Lai. Yi directly talked about who can handle the dominant position in every important leadership summit. Both sides will actually care about these details and methods. Of course, since they meet, there must be some goodwill. For example, Bloomberg reports that the greatest goodwill may be this . This time, it is possible that the Boeing 737 MAX can be pushed back to the Chinese market . Because the aircraft purchased previously were not even delivered , what else is there now ? There is also the problem of the US debt. In fact, the US debt will not be repaid this year. I will post again. Is it possible to talk to the Chinese side now? The reason is that their credit rating outlook may be downgraded because the government will face the crisis of shutting down again on the 17th. Yellen has already said it directly. She does not agree with this part. As for the technology or supply chain issues that China has already talked about, Raimondo will now meet with Wang Wentao during APEC. Everyone started talking about it when Raimondo visited China. Huawei has just launched a new machine. What will they say this time? This meeting is very important for the relationship between the United States and China because this is the second time to see leaders meeting after the Bali meeting. Japan finally looked forward to an occasion. I was present with Xi Jinping , so now I directly talk about whether I hope to have a sideline summit between the leaders of China and Japan because the current situation is not good. For example, the price of this daily cosmetics product in mainland China has plummeted . Nowadays, a Japanese man has been accused of violating the Counter-espionage Act and was sentenced. These are issues related to people's private enterprises, etc. Fumio Kishida hopes to meet with Xi Jinping and have a direct face-to-face dialogue to clarify the matter . But what about going back and asking Commissioner Masamoto? The reason is that for the United States, the relationship between the United States and China is of vital importance. What is the current status of the friendly-shoring outsourcing that was proposed back then? When the United States talks about friendly-shoring outsourcing, it actually means offshore outsourcing , which is the United States. To reduce economic, trade and investment exchanges with mainland China, we hope that American companies can move to other places. But the first thing is that it is pursuing the so-called Indo-Pacific structure. India and Vietnam are the targets of wooing, so India has American investment funds here 1 2 It is true that there will be an increase during the year , but there is a very strange phenomenon that many American factories in India have opened up , but India's imports from mainland China have increased rapidly because they have to buy a lot of upstream raw materials or components, which can only be purchased from mainland China. India does not have a very complete supply chain or manufacturing foundation. Vietnam has the same situation. Vietnam is short of electricity to such an extent that it has to buy it from China. Otherwise, there is not enough electricity , and the shortage is very serious, so there is no way to grow economically as before. The rate is more than 5% , but the economic growth rate of 5% is already good in Vietnam. So some people say that Vietnam is not good compared to the past, but because there is not enough electricity now, including Intel, which was going to build a packaging plant in Vietnam, withdrew 1 billion US dollars. Why ? You can't do it without electricity. And the electricity needs to be highly stable. It doesn't just have electricity . It can't be shut down. It can't be like Taiwan's voltage reduction and frequency reduction. That won't work. As for Xi Jinping, I think he has a Characteristics: The harder his governance style is, the harder he becomes, and the softer the softer . For example, the same applies to Taiwan. His measures for peaceful reunification and benefiting Taiwan are all at once, and cross-strait integration will give you as much as possible . However, military aircraft continue to establish a very clear situation in Taiwan. The situation is very clear when he crosses the central line of the strait, crosses Taiwan , and is even very close to Taiwan's so-called 12-nautical-mile coast. So he is basically like this with the United States. His flexibility is like that of Chiang Ching-kuo. I want to have private friends to interact with the United States , and it was when he was young. After having a meal there, he will keep it in mind . This is a very successful approach to people-to-people diplomacy. If you say that he will be soft when Biden talks to each other, then he will not , especially He cannot be soft on the Taiwan issue. As for other issues, he may be able to say whatever Biden says. But on the Taiwan issue, one of his red lines is impossible to cross . As for Glacier, he always discusses who is in the dominant position . Lai Yi is bored. China went to Europe to take the dominant position in the Russia-Ukraine war. Why did he go to the Middle East? As long as China has a dominant position in the Western Pacific and within its own legal rights , especially the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, it is natural that he will go and say Are you going to fight for dominance in the Sea of Okhotsk ? If you don't know the Pacific Ocean, he won't go to Guam or Hawaii to compete with you for dominance. This is the kind of color that Glacier always has . She has something in her heart. It's the United States and I'm everywhere in the world. How can you be missing one piece when you have to dominate everywhere ? I'm sorry for the rise of China. This piece is indispensable and must be missing because you no longer have the strength to deal with this kind of highly significant friction and possible war. You have exceeded your strength. There is no other way. If Raimundo wants to meet with Wang Wentao again, it will really be a no-brainer. But economically, China is just asking for justice in this regard. There will not be any major friction. If you consider placing an order to buy a Boeing 737, it is really a good idea . Boeing's stock price will rise sharply because Boeing has been holding back for too long. As for the Prime Minister of Japan, I think forget it and continue to discharge nuclear sewage. It’s strange that Xi Jinping will meet you. Let’s go ahead and advertise. When advertising comes back, we will continue to ask experts to comment. Perhaps the most anticipated one at that time is Boeing , because now it is said that Xi Jinping is considering placing an order for the Boeing 737 Max again. I think between China and the United States I think the relationship between Trump and now Biden, I think the mainland should have analyzed and judged the line very clearly. In other words , the atmosphere in the entire Washington is now , whether it is the House of Representatives, the Senate, the executive branch, or the White House. Or the legislative and executive departments of the executive branch of the State Council are very unfriendly to mainland China , and the entire atmosphere is unfriendly, so it is very difficult for them to pass a policy or repair the relationship between the two sides through the federal government , but It can’t get any worse , so the current tone is to stop falling and stabilize. This is already a very basic threshold. Don’t go any further. Just stop. But I personally think that once you stop, it will slowly float upwards . It will not continue to go down. Why? Because the mainland has now transformed its entire strategy from the central government to the central government in the past. It has become a central government. The mainland and its local governments are facing the American private business community and local governments. The government , so you see, when meeting the governor of California this time, they added another sentence called vitality in the local area. This involves a problem. The purchasing power of the mainland is indeed very strong. So far, it is still very strong. Everyone, what do you think if Boeing wants to sell to China? From China, where is Boeing's headquarters ? Boeing's production base, Seattle, seems to be very important, right ... Then think about it, if you say it's a local governor, the governor brings his House and Senate to these states . The elected congressmen visited mainland China and got some orders. This will help improve the relationship between this state and mainland China. If Iowa, an agricultural state and a large agricultural state, wants to sell things to mainland China, they will The governor took these members of the House of Representatives and the Senate to mainland China , and then more orders came from both sides . Even these big oil states began to use this way to communicate with the mainland. Maybe the atmosphere will gradually change because the senators elected by the state or the federal representatives themselves may have a little adjustment in their original anti-China attitudes because of their own electoral interests and the interests of the state . Then local changes will have such an impact. The ecology of the entire federal government in Washington is a long-term task , but it is possible to achieve. Otherwise, it would be too difficult for you to change it from Washington. Moreover, the attitude of the local governments of the US federal government is not necessarily the same as that of the central government. Isn't it possible to approach it from other angles ? When the commercial comes back, we have to ask Teacher Yu Fang to help us summarize. There is a saying in English called Money talk, which means money talks. Although the United States and Russia can almost be said to have broken up now , the relationship between the United States and mainland China is actually The past few decades have not been smooth, but why are there no conflicts? Economics and trade are a very important factor, so Boeing is bound to be like this in the end. Boeing is a bargaining chip in negotiations to some extent. The Chinese mainland market is so big that you can't lose Boeing. The mainland market is why Sino-US relations are so turbulent now. Of course, Boeing will use all its strength to ask the Biden administration to make some adjustments, that is, reconciliation. You see, this recent one is also a good example , because I just talked about Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the end of March. At that time, because Japan successfully reconciled with South Korea, Kishida Fumio was very brave and suddenly visited Ukraine, so his poll at that time was very high at 48% . You may say that this does not seem to be very good , but you have to know that there are many For the first time in a month, people have more approval for him than disapproval for him. The approval level is only 44%. For the first time, the approval level has surpassed him at 48%. However, it has plummeted recently because the Fuji News Network has cooperated with the Sankei Shimbun. In a poll, I saw that his disapproval rate has reached 68.8% , criticizing Fumio Kishida for not accepting him. The overall performance of the government is mainly about economic and trade issues. You have to listen to all the domestic and foreign matters. Let me tell you what you understand. Let me first introduce the guests for this hour. The first thing I want to introduce is Mr. Lai Yueqian, an expert on international politics. Mr. Lai Yueqian, the host. Hello, audience friends , and Mr. Cai Zhengyuan, a doctor of law from Tsinghua University in Beijing . Hi, everyone. Mr. Lin Yufang, an international strategy scholar. Well everyone, what I want to show you at the beginning is that now the United Daily News has released a poll , and everyone has begun to ask questions about this poll. Hou Ke and Ke Hou both won against Lai Xiao , but you don’t know this part. Have you noticed that now everyone wants to replace the Democratic Progressive Party ? How do you interpret the poll numbers ? Because he asked who he didn’t want and least wanted to be elected president . Then he found out that Lai Qingde was in first place with 30%. The last person who did n’t want him to be elected president was the rebel. That is to say, Hou Youyi did n’t want him to be elected president that much. On the contrary , there was no such strong opposition among this option. Everyone started asking Lai Qingde, who said that he would be president of both sides of the Taiwan Strait . The probability of war is the lowest. Is it true that public opinion disagrees ? In fact, why do people feel so strongly about such an atmosphere ? The reason is because the Xi Jinping meeting between the United States and China is about to take place. Many people are here. Worry We Taiwanese people say it is a red-line issue. Will we be traded there? Some people are starting to have such concerns. Well, the government is telling you very directly. Look at the reports. It is said that Biden has signed a name to speak against Taiwan independence. Again, the Financial Times quoted a report from a White House official saying that he clearly stated that he opposed Taiwan independence, which was the position of the other side of the Taiwan Strait. However, they did not intend to change their words now. They also said that they would clearly tell Xi Jinping not to interfere in the Taiwan election. Lai Ching-te also jumped out and said that the United States would want China. Don’t interfere in Taiwan’s elections, oppose China’s support of a pro-China regime, Joseph Wu, speak directly, don’t doubt Americans’ support for us, even Qiu Taisan said that our Mainland Affairs Council has sent people to obtain relevant information this time , and there will be no new information this time. Sullivan ’s statement is that the government has begun to provide guarantees for the United States, but do you want to listen to what American officials say ? He said that we will indeed talk about some key issues , which will include the Taiwan Strait. But when people ask whether it is true that Biden will When Xi Jinping asked him not to intervene in the Taiwan election, he refused to confirm it. Then everyone has to ask whether the United States that Taiwan understands now is really the same as the actual United States. The current South China Morning Post report is that basically in 4 We can see clues in the month of September when Lai Qingde was transiting the United States. The United States actually showed advance notice to the mainland, saying that this was an expression of goodwill. This was something that had never happened before. People began to ask whether it was true. The attitude of the United States is also true now. In fact, the attitude change of some U.S. allies may be more clear. The good reason is that now when Tsai Ing-wen tells us that the world is preparing to put Taiwan on the shelf, Lai Qingde said that he has successfully put Taiwan on the international shelf. At the same time, what are the British doing now? They changed to a foreign minister who was not so familiar with China before. Now they have changed to Cameron , who is their former prime minister. Who is Cameron ? When he was the prime minister at the time, his relationship with the other side and China was called It was the golden era of cooperation in all aspects, with Xi Jinping's mutual exchanges, and the relationship between the two countries was at its peak at that time. In addition, who started at the end of last year, Germany's Xiaoz, Macron, who just went to China in November this year, Prime Minister Bennis of Australia has repeatedly seen that these are basically very strong brothers of the United States. Why do they seem to have contacts and interactions with China recently , let alone the White House itself ? The reason is because the meeting with Xi Jinping is about to take place tomorrow . Now Sullivan directly said that they want to rebuild military relations with China because they are worried about a so-called miscalculation or conflict. Why does the United States care so much about such a request ? Because now this news tells You know, the J-16 said that in fact, they have also been thrown interference bombs. First, let’s listen to the CCTV report. A pilot of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force directly told everyone that the situation is good. Basically, both the United States and China have been in trouble in the past year. In fact, you can also watch it. Basically , they came to China's coastal areas many times to do reconnaissance. Of course, they were just reconnaissance aircraft. But if they were so-called military aircraft and fighter jets, it would be a scene like the one just now. At that time, the two of them were in the air. Why is there a rear-end collision ? Because if you drive behind him, you may take an offensive against him at any time . So the situation is urgent. Now we are worried that such a situation will lead to miscalculation. So the US side is trying its best to have a dialogue with the Chinese side. Tomorrow Xi will pay a visit. Of course , everyone will be more concerned about what they talked about. I want to ask Commissioner Yu Fang how to look at it. The reason is because the relationship between the United States, China and Taiwan is actually very important for the election early this year and next year. Many people will take this into consideration. Currently, 31% of the polls say they do not want Lai Ching-te to be elected president, which is the largest number. This is mainly about the choice between war and peace , because indeed Lai Ching-te has said that there is a chance of war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait when he is president. At the very least , the people will not forget it. That is to say , none of the previous executive presidents have stated in the Legislative Yuan that he is a Taiwan independence worker like Lai Qingde . Therefore, Americans are very uneasy about him. That is why he was received at the level where the United States received him last time. In fact, it was suppressed. You know that when Hou Youyi arrived in the United States , he met with a dozen such congressmen, senators and representatives. But you, Lai Qingde, just couldn't help it. This proves that the Americans deliberately want to suppress him. If he is like What Lai Qingde said , Wu Zhaoxie and Qiu Taisan also said that the whole world is paying great attention to Taiwan , and if the United States is also very friendly to Taiwan , then it would just be fine to just establish diplomatic relations and restore diplomatic relations . Then there is no choice between the United States and the United States . All countries are very realistic, and the United States is no exception. Their choice. The United States’ choice, of course, is that it thinks that it will be more beneficial to deal with mainland China and establish diplomatic relations than to establish diplomatic relations with us. Of course we are very dissatisfied , but this is the way it is and we have no way to fight against it . So I think this thing will be diplomatic . The issue of war and peace will continue to ferment. So this is why so many people, as high as 31%, are Taiwanese voters who do not want Lai Ching-te to be elected. As for the issue of Cameron, I think the British People have seen the situation in Australia He learned something from Australia, who was also a foreign minister and changed the relationship between China and Australia. The foreign minister's name is Huang Yingxian. She was born to her father. In fact, the place where she was born when she was a child was a Hakka family in Sabah, Malaysia. After she went up , Australia and China The rapid improvement of relations with the mainland is of course related to Albanese, because Albanese can speak Chinese. He is completely different from the previous Australian Prime Minister Morrison. Morrison is hostile to China , and he is the most hostile of all previous Australian Prime Ministers. The views of Albanese in China are different , so during the election campaign, the Australian people actually made their choice. During the election, Albanese in Australia was a member of the Labor Party. The Labor Party was portrayed by Morrison as a pro-China party, but this pro-China party The political party was elected , so of course Albanese appointed Huang Yingxian as the foreign minister. Huang Yingxian also said that we should reconsider our China policy in the future and adopt a more thoughtful foreign policy . So after she came up, she took office on May 23. Under the new government of Australia, if you look at the entire iron ore and coal mines in mainland China and Australia, including red wine, lobster, cotton, etc., mainland China has become Australia's largest exporter. So this means that what we need to pay attention to is the things around us. When the country is a very big country and they change the direction of their diplomacy, we should keep it in mind, understand it , and respond accordingly. I would like to ask Commissioner Zhengyuan what he thinks . Lai Qingde said that he has the lowest probability of war. It may be different from the American view . One time, AIT Chairman Rosenberg came to Taiwan. She loudly said that the United States did not support Taiwan's independence. Who was she talking to? It was Lai Qingde. So of course Americans knew about Lai Qingde's political stance and were worried about Lai Qingde's politics. What will the position bring to the greater cross-Strait relations ? The two sides of the Taiwan Strait are small cross-straits and the two sides of the Pacific are large. It will bring too much impact to the greater cross-strait . But the current situation we are facing in Taiwan is even the democratic reform that has come out in the past two days. Although it may be said that Ke Pei, Hou Ke Pei will be slightly higher than Lai Xiande 's Lai Xiao Pei , but don't forget that whether Lai Xiao Pei is more popular or Lai Xiao Pei is more favorable, this is an objective question we must face, that is, most Taiwanese voters may think that Lai Ching-te has a high chance of bringing about war. However, there are still many strong supporters who want to support Lai Ching-te's election. However, most of those who oppose him are divided, so everyone thinks that Lai Ching-te's election rate is relatively high , so some of the other opposition parties Candidates may want to think carefully. If Lai Ching-te is elected if this dilemma cannot be overcome, it means that Taiwan continues to move in the direction of the probability of war. The United States certainly does not want a war in the Taiwan Strait , because the United States has learned from the recent Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine war , and The strength of the United States is really quite limited , so in the face of the more powerful People's Liberation Army of mainland China, the United States cannot get much advantage . The United States can always send reconnaissance aircraft and military aircraft to the Taiwan Strait . But if the People's Liberation Army really wants to The U.S. military cannot take advantage when it takes action . Although the title says that throwing interference bombs is not a problem , because after all, your People's Liberation Army base is close to your airspace, and this U.S. military base is too far away from your airspace , so of course for the United States In order to find a way to control the conflict between China and the United States, he still hopes to maintain the ability to display his military power near the Taiwan Strait. Whether it is 1,000 or 2,000 times a year , the People's Liberation Army crosses the Taiwan Strait and the so-called ADIZ to the Eastern Pacific or the Philippine Sea in the Western Pacific. The number of sorties is more than 2,000, and the number of sorties is more than 2,000, which is extremely high. So we have already seen the outcome of the two sides. Of course, the United States is very anxious . Can we both reach a compromise on the Taiwan issue ? The United States will repeatedly say that I don’t. It supports Taiwan's independence , but does the United States oppose Taiwan's independence ? Mainland China also says it opposes Taiwan's independence, but China also talks about peaceful reunification , which will form a long-term deadlock of ups and downs , because for the United States, Taiwan has an independent Power is a bargaining chip that he can use. As far as the mainland is concerned, he only needs to get a considerable bargaining chip by saying that the two sides of the Taiwan Strait are peacefully reunified. Then there is hope that he can appease the people of the mainland and maintain the smoothness of other projects of his administration. The remaining two countries are the so-called China and the United States. The competition issues are all focused on technological or economic issues. Mainland China can easily break through. The only decisive point is still to hope that everyone will push back the probability of war in Taiwan. But if the fundamental problem is not solved, how long can it be pushed back ? No one knows . Especially if the DPP is in power again in 2024, it is obvious that the cross-strait relations, the small cross-strait relations, will have many obstacles that cannot be overcome. The big cross-strait relations will have to be busy dealing with the small cross-strait relations. You can Knowing that the chance of a misfire is greater than before , if he waits until everything is ready in mainland China , and he really can't bear the small cross-strait relations that will lead to conflicts like Russia-Ukraine or Israel-Palestine, then who will be the unlucky one? We , I want to ask, why do we Taiwanese choose Lai Ching-te, who has the highest probability of war? I am here to ask Mr. Lai. The reason is because between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait , of course, we all hope not to have war but to have peace , but the problem is that basically the United States now has them Want to talk to Xi What we are talking about is the re-establishment of military relations , because there has really been an incident like a tail-end collision and then a fight . The United States is increasingly worried about what happened with the mainland in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait or even in the northern East China Sea. The military friction evolved into a military conflict between the two countries , then escalated , or suddenly interrupted the normal economic and diplomatic relations between the two countries . He became more and more worried, so he always wanted to restore this so-called military relationship. Hotline or restore normal military communication channels . However, because the United States established a theater-level military hotline in Shangri-La just last year, it was equivalent to the theater commander- in-chief and minister-level establishment. As a result, Pelosi came, so we played a game. In such a situation, the military trust between the two countries has been broken. Now the United States must pay a price if it wants to rebuild the United States. The so-called price to pay is that the mainland will definitely put forward conditions and thresholds . The United States must meet these conditions and thresholds. It is possible to restore it because the purpose of setting up the threshold is that once you touch it, these communication channels will be closed immediately, so it is difficult to open and close quickly. I personally think that the United States is in the South China Sea, the Taiwan Strait, and the East China Sea. Part of the United States will definitely restrain itself and restrain itself , that is, it will no longer be as arrogant or take risks as it was in the past . It should restrain itself, that is, establish thresholds and establish some rules. Another part of the article is that you mentioned about the people. I think this is a very interesting question. People in Taiwan think Lai Ching-te is the most likely to be elected. That’s because he clearly knows the disunity of the non-green camp. Because of the disunity of the non-green camp , Lai Ching-te is the most likely to be elected . But Taiwan’s The people least want him to be elected and are most afraid of him being elected because once he is elected, the people in Taiwan may become like the people in Gaza , either preparing to flee or leave this so-called immigration unit. In the mobile phenomenon, there are many wealthy people in the green camp who are the sponsors of the green camp . However, the people of Taiwan feel that Hou Youyi’s chance of being elected is relatively low among the non-green camp, but if he is elected , it will be the safest and most reliable , that is, if he is elected as Taiwan’s The people are least worried about what it means. Hou Youyi is the most reliable in stabilizing cross-strait relations or preventing conflicts between China, the United States and Taiwan. So why did Hou Youyi not make good use of this advantage? If he did not make good use of this advantage, he was afraid of democratic advancement. If the party discredits you , no wonder you will play yourself like a pollster. If your support keeps rising and you are afraid of being discredited, you will become even more miserable. Isn’t the last election an experience and lesson? The last Qiu Taisan , if your prediction is wrong Do you want to step down responsibly ? If you say that the Taiwan issue between China and the United States will not change, just step down . Wu Zhaoxie, don’t talk nonsense. May I ask where Xi Jinping and Biden will be in the morning or afternoon of November 15th? Tell me clearly who is going to whom at the hotel . If you really have such an accurate grasp of the situation, then you should announce it directly . Don't make it public yet. You are just talking big words .
