Therefore, the United States has such a great influence on the political situation of other countries around the world. The United States itself will have an election next year . Of course, if they want to benefit the election campaign, they will affect other countries. The latest news is that the U.S. House of Representatives has launched an investigation into the impeachment defeat with 221 votes. What are the 212 votes investigating? Of course it is whether his children and family members had improper business interests during his tenure as vice president. Biden just said that Republicans did not do anything to improve American life and focused on attacking me for wasting my time on baseless politics. Of course that's the trick , because Trump is still ahead of him in the current poll numbers. Of course, the Israel issue is a very heavy pressure on the Biden administration. Blinken has been to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict three times, and US National Security Advisor Sullivan is scheduled to be 14 I will visit Israel again on the 15th , but there is still no way to end the Gaza War. The United States wants to end it , but with its attitude of supporting Israel , is there any way to make the disputes in the Middle East really ignored by Israel? There is no way to really end it. The question is that There is no way for Biden to forgive or accept such a direction and trend in the United States . For example, we just saw that there is no progress in the F-16 fighter jets that Turkey wants to purchase , so they turned to the Xiaolong fighter jets jointly developed by China and Pakistan , etc. It seems that there are more and more countries around the world that ignore the United States , including the South China Sea. There have been some constant small-scale conflicts in the South China Sea recently. The United States and China are talking about fighting but not breaking up. China and Vietnam issued a joint statement. After Xi Jinping reiterated his trip to Vietnam, Vietnam emphasized the pursuit of one-China policy. If both sides implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, maritime differences will be well controlled and more conflicts and disputes will not expand and maritime stability will be maintained . There will be no such conflict between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea because there is no way to be so stable because Canada has also joined in the condemnation. The Chinese ranks criticized each other and the Chinese Embassy accused him of confusing right and wrong. Canada accused China of failing to comply with the relevant 206 International Court of Justice rulings. Therefore, when Indian warships visited Manila, the Philippines and India were still developing maritime partnerships in the South China Sea. During the exercise, India, the Philippines and Canada are obviously involved in the possible Sino-US conflict in the South China Sea . The Financial Times reported that US and Chinese defense officials have been breaking the ice since the Xi Jinping meeting. The ice-breaking contacts have resumed dialogue , so a series of high-level military contacts have been carried out . During the negotiations, it seemed that the dialogue between the Chief of Staff, General, and other levels had resumed. After that, he emphasized the possibility of dangerous actions such as several approaching land fighter jets, and then responded that it seemed that we had already cooled down , but it might cool down again . Operations like this have been accused of espionage. Both sides claim that they are legal airspace, etc. It is not just the situation around the United States in the South China Sea, but also in Japan. The poll numbers have repeatedly dropped. Kishida Fumio wants to reorganize the cabinet. We need to change to see if we can get the polls to rise, so Lin Fangzheng will be the Chief Cabinet Secretary. But as soon as the latest survey came out and the list of cabinet changes came out, it was found that all the Abe faction was wiped out. So this time, because the Abe faction has this Being searched and investigated related to the fraud case is equivalent to clearing out all the Abe faction. Will his polls be saved? Or will he be ready to step down after the polls fall below 30%? Brother Liang, from the perspective of international relations, the United States is about to have an election. The anti-China card has always been played in this way at home, but its influence in other countries , especially the endless conflicts between Israel and Palestine, is too great for Biden. The impeachment investigation launched against Biden this time is not about China. Regarding his son, his son, in fact, someone in the Republican Party wrote a report during the last election . I think it should be fine because his son did do illegal things . But it is impossible for an old fox like Biden to leave evidence and say what he said. I don’t think it’s possible to use his son to make money because it couldn’t be found out last time, so Trump was still defeated, right ? So this is just a fuss , but this fuss depends on whether Biden can keep his composure or whether he will be energetic. It was chaotic and then he did amazing things. I think Biden’s biggest problem now is that his physical and mental condition must remain normal until at least March next year . Otherwise, the Democratic Party really has a lot of power to replace people . It’s really like this. Strength , but if it is an impeachment inquiry, I think it will not succeed because basically the Senate needs 2/3, so it is impossible to pass. I just said that during the investigation, you will be humiliated and humiliated like this, so I said that his mental state must be strong enough . I think Like this, Canada is here to disrupt the situation. In fact, there is nothing we can do about it. Let me tell you what the current problem is. The current problem is that science and technology have advanced too fast. So even though you are 24 nautical miles away , I have not entered your territorial waters and airspace . But I In fact , the technology can already receive intelligence. The problem is here . So you see, all the major countries want to establish territory. That territory is definitely not defined by territorial sea and airspace , because the current technology has long surpassed that capability . If you say that American aircraft are really It flew to 24 nautical miles and did not enter Chinese airspace. Whether it was a reconnaissance aircraft or a bomber? Last time, a B1 came. B1 can be loaded with nuclear bombs . Nuclear bombs can be fired hundreds of kilometers. I will be near you. What should you do? I have not entered. Doesn’t the United States also use a concept called free navigation in your territorial waters ? I can come to these places from mainland China. It’s not that far away yet . Otherwise, sooner or later , I will retaliate against you. I will drive to you near Guam, near Hawaii, and then directly to the holy land of Alaska. Can you bear it near Ya Ge ? Because the nature of the current weapons is no longer the 24 nautical mile airspace and sea area that can limit the movement of the missile. It can shoot hundreds of miles and hundreds of kilometers , and it also has nuclear warheads, right? As for the so-called radar This is even more true for the equipment used to spy on your military intelligence. That’s why you, the United States, always use the concept of territorial sea and airspace . Why don’t you fly to the Kamchatka Peninsula to see what I said about Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula ? There are Russian nuclear submarines in the Kamchatka Peninsula. Go and take a look at the base. I guarantee you that you will probably be shot down when you reach 50 kilometers today. This is a political and military result. Now when you are facing China, you are talking about the concept of sea and airspace in international law. Frankly speaking, in this situation, you How to establish communication channels for the military is useless . To put it bluntly, it is a matter of territory. Do you want to respect me as a big country? Do you respect my territory? You also know what your technology can detect or create threats. That's because I'm not old enough. I can probably go for a walk around Guam now . Now I've started to go to Hawaii for a walk. I think this is the model in the future. If the United States is coming , then I will go just to see what he can do. How far do you go ? Like Russia, just go directly to Alaska, because it is Alaska as soon as it passes. The United States and Russia have long said that we should not engage in such things with each other , so the rules over the Bering Strait have determined that it has nothing to do with airspace and sea. It is a matter of strength. Because Asia is more complicated, Taiwan and Japan are so close, and the United States can fly here every now and then and fly warships. But sooner or later, it will hit the critical point, so I think this is the muscle to compete with others in the end. It’s really good to have a big fist . Let’s take a break and have a more in-depth discussion. We’ll be back soon in November. So now it’s time to start an offensive and defensive battle again . The House of Representatives has launched an impeachment case against Biden. Mr. Yuan , this impeachment case is really going to pass. Impeachment is difficult , but I will definitely not be as easy as Brother Liang said. The most important reason is that I have three reasons. The first one is that the timing he chose is very special . That is to say, if Biden fails , it will be next year. We are about to face you. Look at that Trump who is angrily saying all day long that what he said about Sleepy Joe is terrible, right? Then he finds it very troublesome. And the second thing passed yesterday is to give you the power to investigate. The vote will only be based on the results of the investigation whether to impeach you or not. This is what is called authorize in English. In terms of the matter itself, the reason mentioned in it is that Biden’s son Hunter Biden said that I will listen to what I said this morning. When it comes to Hunter Biden talking about business with people outside, he has not done anything illegal, but one of his actions is that every time he talks about it, I have to talk to my dad on the phone to say this is terrible. This makes people imply that you have to pass anything. It was during the time when my father was the Vice President. This was an excuse. I'm telling you. You have to listen to me. Don't forget that the United States is a religious country. Americans attach great importance to morality. There are huge moral flaws that make people think. There is an incomparable moral association , because the main reason for punishing someone is because you doubt his motives. Maybe you are not breaking the law , but you are violating good morals and customs . And another important thing is that no one knows. After this series of careful investigations, Do you know what evil moths will emerge as a result ? When Clinton and Hillary Clinton said that the email incident was under investigation ? It was only after the Libyan ambassador was murdered that her email incident became more and more serious , and even the president was This is a very serious matter. In addition, everyone’s interpretation of the situation in Vietnam is that not long ago, Biden gave Vietnam enough face, such as comprehensive partnership and so on. Suddenly, now he is getting very good with Xi Jinping. Everyone needs to understand that Vietnam itself has the longest coastline and the deepest relationship with the South China Sea. But the first one is its geographical relationship with China. Then the second one is that their institutional relationship is exactly the same . The third one is his original one. Our living habits are very similar to ours . I burned paper when I went to Hanoi on the first and fifteenth day of the Lunar New Year . So you have to understand that if Vietnam and China are good, this relationship is very normal . We must pay attention to international relations and emphasize that it is normal to have both sides. Good for us. Take a break and be back soon. Now it has become an important problem for Biden. He is about to send National Security Advisor Sullivan to visit Israel. Is there any way to solve this big problem? I think it is very challenging and very difficult because from the war to now we have seen countless Biden administration officials. I have been to Israel more than once. Now this time I am Sullivan's national security adviser. Secretary of State Blinken has been there at least three times before. Biden himself has been there. Even Secretary of Defense Austin has been there. The United States is doing many things, part of which is shuttle diplomacy, but this matter Now that the Israel-Kazakhstan war has started, I feel that the attitude and position of the United States is actually very clear, that is, it supports Israel to the end . You can see that in many diplomatic situations , for example, in the United Nations Security Council, the United States has used the veto power of the five permanent members more than once. Even in the General Assembly, the situation is the same , because the General Assembly is a 193 member state of the United Nations. Even though the number of countries supporting Israel is still relatively low , the United States still defends Israel here . In fact , it includes a lot of weapons and ammunition . Directly because of the Israeli-Kazakhstan conflict, the Israel Defense Forces have been conducting offensive operations in the Gaza Corridor for a long time , so the consumption of ammunition is a top priority for Israel. Of course it needs the unreserved support of the United States , so we see a steady stream of people on the way. However, Israel is more of a purchaser than Ukraine. What it wants to send is different , and what it wants to send is still different, right? I think, but on the other hand, In fact, this matter is also a major challenge for the Biden administration , because supporting Israel I think is already a very clear policy of the Biden administration. Let’s take a look at the poll numbers. TVBS poll tells everyone that 36% of the people believe that Hou Youyi can handle it. For cross-strait issues , Lai Ching-tak's support for this matter is only 26%. This topic is obviously relatively trusted among the blue camp. Ke Wenzhe is 18% , and among them, Ke Wenzhe has no opinion. In fact, about 20% said that he cannot express his position and cannot judge, so he is in power. When a college student asked about the cross-strait policy , what was the direct confrontation that the professor just talked about? He specifically said that Hou Youyi and I are actually not that KMT. In other words, it is different from the traditional KMT of LKK that you think. For example, he himself said in the media host I didn’t like the Communist Party when I was a child, and I was persuaded not to publicly talk about hating the Communist Party. Is this also a so-called consensus or topic with young people ? The issue of unification and independence is China’s big foreign propaganda , which Lai Qingde continues to fight now. Of course, the anti-China card means that the CCP is very dangerous, and then it says that there will be no fight now, it is very peaceful, and there is no fight. Lai Qingde just said on November 18 that he denied that Xi Jinping denied that there would be an armed attack on Taiwan in 2027 or 2035. What was he doing? It was a slap in the face. What the Kuomintang says about danger is a slap in the face. Tsai Ing-wen said on November 29 that it was currently impossible for the CCP to invade Taiwan on a large scale. However, when she was interviewed later, she changed her statement again. It is not any political party who has the intention of China to invade Taiwan. It was not me, Lai Qingde, who caused the CCP to invade Taiwan. She said that it was not a political party that would stop if it knelt down and accepted China. So the war for unification, independence, and peace issues were actually China's big foreign propaganda. He would not stop invading Taiwan, so he said it all at once. He will invade Taiwan and suddenly say that he will not stop violating Taiwan. In fact, this has become a verbal operation. Who should the people believe? Is the Tsai administration in a state of war preparation ? There are several things to observe . This is from Xu Qiaoxin today. In the press conference they held, the main text in the bill passed by the U.S. Congress mentioned Taiwan, which required Taiwan to prepare for war , including sending relevant personnel to Taiwan to assist in military training exercises, etc. Who did they accuse Xiao Meiqin at this press conference? She once had a secret meeting with an organization. This is SOA , a right-wing organization closely related to military warfare. She said that when she was stationed in the United States, she worked with SOA to develop overseas militia organizations and introduce them to various departments in Taiwan to cooperate and contact them . What did SOA include in the past ? In order to support Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, it is the same, so Xu Qiaoxin questioned the list of fact-checking centers introduced to Taiwan by Xiao Meiqin and the National Mobilization Agency of the Ministry of National Defense. These contacts mean that we must also prepare for war in the same way as Ukraine, Syria and Iraq. You Shuhui said that among the units under this introduction, there is also the Fire Department and the Ministry of Health and Welfare. It has been revealed that the purchase of a large amount of strategic materials for trauma has been carried out in March, so they are already secretly preparing for war. Is there any so-called situation? I don’t know the KPI? Is it the purpose of funding or to achieve a required consumption amount ? When you are questioning this matter, does the DPP really take into account Taiwan’s interests or is it cooperating with the US government in various mobilizations or It's the purchase of related supplies. That's what everyone is questioning. The spokesperson responded by saying that this kind of gathering is just an ordinary gathering. The Kuomintang has repeatedly smeared and fired guns indiscriminately , which is not what a mature society should do. It is regrettable. Did she answer ? In essence, cooperation with our Taiwanese units has been introduced to official organizations for cooperation or procurement. It is not just an ordinary gathering. Therefore, in the past records of the United States' intervention, there are countless records of possible wars in the country's internal affairs and then running away. For example, after the Vietnam War in Saigon in 1975, after the evacuation of connecting personnel in Saigon, everyone knows what happened in Vietnam, and it is even more impressive. What everyone will never forget is that on August 16, 2021, the US military hurriedly evacuated overnight. The Afghan people were so frightened that they climbed onto this The landing gear of the plane ended up being smashed to death . So, do you want this scene in Taiwan to happen? Then Xiao Meiqin had a secret meeting that was described as the white gloves of war. Did Lai Qingde know about the China Security Conference ? Did Lai Qingde know that in the released scene in the past , whether it was squatting? Lai Qingde was never mentioned in the national security briefings on the ground . Did Lai Qingde know these things? And judging from the development trend of Ukraine in the past, Zelensky has lost the support of the United States. Parts of Congress are unwilling to give him a continuation. In addition to aid, Biden also revealed a change in his stance in one sentence . For example, in the past he said that the United States would support Ukraine and Russia no matter how long he would continue to support it. But today he said that the United States would support Ukraine for how long. How long is the English translation ? So one is No matter how long you support one, you can support it for as long as you want. It may be obvious that there is no way for the Congress to obtain budget and support, and there is no way to continue to support Ukraine. The aid to Ukraine has bounced. The Washington think tank laments that you are like this. If Zelensky repeatedly provides aid to Ukraine and fails to get what he wants because of Zelensky’s third visit to Washington , think tanks say you do this. What will Taiwan think? What will Japan think? What will Congress think? What will South Korea think ? So what Congress is destroying is the global leadership of the United States. What does Brother Liang think about the issue of cross-strait war? If SOA really represents the cooperation between Taiwan and the United States, Taiwan is also preparing for war. If you look at the national defense budget , for example, our military hospitals are being expanded. If you look at the Neihu Third General Administration, you will know that the military medical office is also expanding. What is it for? It is because we think that more soldiers will be injured in battle. In fact, SOA is the Spirits of America . It is originally composed of retired military personnel and local participation in various aspects. It is composed of some non-governmental organizations and people to assist in various war zones to provide rear support , especially medical evacuation , and then organize something like this. Why does the Black Bear Army do logistics and civil defense ? So you said that Xiao Meiqin contacted SOA. In fact, I am not surprised at all. Because if you look at this year's defense budget, the military hospital is expanding , so we are preparing ourselves . But he didn't tell you loudly , but he understands war. Everyone knows what you are doing. You are just preparing in advance. You are afraid that there will be a large number of casualties and they will be evacuated to somewhere, right ? He also said that everyone hopes that more people under the age of 40 can invest in the civil defense because I myself I know about the election. When I go to the civil defense stalls , most of them are over 55 years old. There are very few young people participating in the civil defense. That’s why the Black Bear Army was established, and Shen Boyang was picked up by Lai Qingde . That’s how they want the civil defense organization. If younger people can be involved , they are doing logistics and medical evacuation during wars or education and training of necessary personnel , which is probably this kind of work. SOA is the most representative organization in the United States , so think about us. All the reserve soldiers are connected with the US National Guard , so we need to strengthen the civil defense and connect with SOA. Is it any wonder ? This is the same logic, that is, everything is connected. To put it simply, our country is indeed rapidly building itself into the second country. This is how Ukraine took the initiative to build it... It should be said that when the United States and the United States had such a proposal, we accepted its idea. As the representative to the United States, Xiao Meiqin must of course fulfill her mission and be prepared for war. This must be assigned by the Presidential Office of the National Security Council . So this is what you can see. In fact, the information they disclosed proves that the civil defense organizations are also in contact with the other party's logistics- related units in the United States , and our reserve troops are also in contact with the other party's national militia. Then the training officer and soldier training instructors from the United States also came to the first level of 200 compulsory service next year. You will know then that the training of American soldiers is not a joke. They are all serious. In fact, I have seen the 54-week course. It's really hard enough. Let me tell you, it's really hard enough. It's very hard. Students and classmates, you should be mentally prepared. I am a Marine Corps... Marines. We have been training for 3 months, which is relatively hard. 8 weeks is the beginning, and then we continue. Come down and join the army. It has army training, base training , joint training, and specialized training. After that , there are 8 weeks, 54 weeks , and 46 weeks. 46 weeks are waiting for you. It’s very hard, so I’m very happy that we will have a group of strong men in Taiwan soon. Rigorous training is about to begin, but does it mean that Taiwan is moving more and more towards a possible war state? Professor, I completely agree with what Brother Liang said, because in fact, I just heard this morning that the BBC recently had a podcast that interviewed two people on the road. A young man and a woman were asking about those people . His initial introduction was that there was a post-war temporary evacuation facility somewhere in Taipei, and everyone was asked to participate in the exercise. When I heard it, I felt like it was talking about Beirut. Later I realized that it was. When talking about Taipei, I will tell you everything in fact because I participated in a program this morning with a well-known old man , Ross. When he said that Americans have no fighting power against Taiwan, he felt that The Americans were very disappointed , and they told a joke 20 years ago that when American advisers came to Taiwan, they thought that Taiwan's troops were like Israel before arriving in Taiwan, and then they discovered that it was Panama. This was his metaphor . This analogy is very accurate, because Panama collapsed in less than a day after the US invasion, right? So for the United States at that time , when you wanted to buy weapons for me, you couldn’t just buy them yourself. You can't train yourself. The United States has no confidence at all. If you say this, the military will be demoralized. The United States will not allow this. So in this case, why do I agree with the first one? I agree very much. It is Xiao Meiqin who represents Xiao Meiqin. What does it have to do with her to let others die in a war , right ? Then the second thing is that the United States will think that you want to provoke it, but everyone can see that including Israel in the Middle East, Ukraine, not to mention that the Americans have not sent troops at all. You have to remember The Americans themselves know that once the United States sends troops, they will not be able to stop, so the lessons Afghanistan taught them and Vietnam taught them are very, very profound. Therefore, the United States basically never fights a war that it is not sure of winning. So in this situation On the Taiwan side, let Taiwan continue to provide you with weapons, so that your side will be a scorched earth. Then the third part, I must emphasize, is that we usually had a song in 1969 by John Lennon , which was All we are Saying : Give peace a chance . We have said so much. Please give peace a chance. Look at what Lai Qingde said. His own words, you have to emphasize them. I suggest that all the DPP , including Lin Feifan, sign them. If everyone is the first batch to enlist in the army , then what are the 54 states in the United States? Is it 54 days or 54 weeks ? If the training is harder, he will join immediately . Why? Because I made it clear and said not to fight . Just kidding, I think there is nothing wrong with being a Panamanian. Okay, I am willing. In order to have peace, I don’t want to be like this, right? So what you said today forced the Taiwanese to go to the battlefield. Why do you have the qualifications ? How can you fight like this ? And you don’t tell the truth like the BBC. Where is this kind of thing in Taipei? You just talked about the expansion of the military hospital . And the remaining people , basically, if they are sent with broken arms and legs, they will be a useless person, right? If you are like this, you Where is your conscience ? What ideals do you have that make you think like this? You have to understand clearly in your heart that this is the flesh and blood of others. What do you say ? Let’s talk about it now. If it turns out that Lai Qingde said it very well , the conscripts don’t have to go to the battlefield , right ? You can Take Lai Qingde's words and tell the Americans, " Don't do this. Tell the Americans to go away. Why are you telling me to go to the battlefield? Our presidential candidate and his candidate said that there is no need to go to the battlefield for compulsory service . You volunteer service deserves it, right ? And you are willing to do so." Fighting rationally and so on, I think this matter is really ridiculous to talk about. You lied and then bluffed. You want to flatter Americans and lie to your own people. What kind of thing are you, right ? So you are in this situation. Xiao Meiqin is now her When she did this kind of thing and came into contact with the Spirits of America , her only goal was to show in front of Americans that Taiwanese people are brave and dare to fight. When will Taiwanese people be brave and want to go to war ? I don’t know where you got the information from. You don’t know much about Taiwanese people, right ? Obviously, many polls in Taiwan show that Taiwanese people think they won’t go to war because the election rhetoric is like this. Lai Ching-de and Tsai Ing-wen told everyone that if you elect me, I will not bring war, I will bring peace , and The old Communist Party is unlikely to attack Taiwan at the moment, but what it actually does seems to be a different story. I think it is a god and you and a ghost. How can you say this? Because I remember that not long ago, a lot of information from this government said that the Taiwan Strait was very dangerous and there were many dangers. There is a big possibility of some conflicts , so everyone needs to be prepared for this and that. But in the past 1 or 2 months, there has been a new statement, which may be related to the election. It wants everyone to feel at ease and not be so nervous. Which one is true? You can't cut tofu with a knife. Is it right for both sides to always move in the direction that is beneficial to them ? There was a poll just now that showed that 36% of the voters believed that Hou Youyi is the best able to handle cross-strait relations . To be honest, I think the results of such a poll are not correct. It’s not too surprising, it’s reasonable, because in fact, if you look back carefully, Hou Youyi had a very clear policy in this foreign affairs journal in September. Everyone is already familiar with it, right ? And the order is very important . One is to intimidate , only with strength can there be peace. Many, many things need to be done. The second is the dialogue between the two sides of the strait. Because we always have to stabilize cross-strait relations , we must make some efforts , and it is from a functional perspective, from people to people, to improve the atmosphere. Only the third one can reduce risks. This 3D explanation is actually very, very clear , and it is quite comprehensive so far. In addition, there was an explanation of the so-called defense and diplomacy policy on Monday . I think it is basically very, very comprehensive . Of course You can also see that there will be some criticisms from the other camp immediately . It is almost seamless. But if you look closely, I think there is one biggest key. How he said it is because Hou Youyi proposed that the national security strategy should be presented 10 months after taking office. Another result This camp will talk about the fact that we all have the 2017 QDR. The 4-year general review of national defense has talked about the planning of future strategies and national strategies. But how can QDR be equal to the national security strategy ? The national security strategy is the highest-level guiding principle and is unified. Defense, diplomacy , economy, energy, etc... QDR is a plan and a vision for the national defense policy for the next four years after the president takes office . If the two cannot be clearly distinguished, how can we criticize what I think is the most complete statement on national security so far ? There are strategic candidates , including national defense and foreign affairs, international and domestic issues. The first guest is Guo Zhengliang, a PhD in political science from Yale. Brother, everyone is safe. Professor Yuan Juzheng, Department of Philosophy, National Taiwan University. Teacher Qianqiu. Hello, audience friends. Hello , Dan Da . Professor Li Dazhong from the Institute of Strategy. Hello everyone. There are many polls . Let’s quickly take a look at the polls of various companies. The recent numbers have been announced. Among them, the TVBS poll was just announced yesterday. This number shows Lai Qingde in the lead , but the gap with the so-called Hou Kangpei has been narrowing. Among them, Ke Wenzhe’s 19% was 36% to 32% in ETtoday’s poll, a gap of 4 percentage points . If we look at the numbers in another poll, the gap is about 3 or 4 percentage points, all of which are between 3% and 4%. Sorry , the first is Formosa and the second is TVBS. So in the trends of the three polls, we found that the gap between the two groups, namely Lai Xiao and Hou Kangpei, is slowly narrowing, and of course it is less than 5%. There is also talk of internal polls. Zhu Lilun said that our internal polls have now won the Golden Cross over the DPP , but Zhao Shaokang described that the party will do 1,000 copies of local calls and 500 copies of mobile phones every day. The trend seems to be good, but young votes are being lost anyway. Considered to be the key to victory, in the poll numbers of the beautiful island of young votes , Lai Xiaopei rose and Hou Kangpei fell. Ke Yingqi is rising , so between the rise and fall, there is probably a trend in these polls , which is that the blue camp has the worst support among those aged 20 to 29 , and the transfer seems to be between these two groups of candidates. If Ke Yingpei cannot get it, it will be given to the DPP. If the DPP cannot get it, it will be given to Ke Wenzhe. Is this a trend? And if political parties are to rotate and vote for the opposition party in 2024, according to the figures from the Formosa Island poll, we can tell About 40% of people hope that the political parties will change and they will switch to vote for this reason. The polls are high , which means that the bail-abandonment effect will happen. 40% of the polls are like this. Wei Han just left. This photo is very cool. He said he opened When calling in, almost 8% will choose to abandon the guarantee at the last moment. Of course, many people have spoken for him in the past few days, saying that he will stand up at the last moment. The key is who to support. Is he helping Hou Youyi? Of course Ke Wenzhe described it as no one. Ke Wenzhe hates Zhu Lilun, so who should win is who he supports. It is also the so -called abandonment effect mentioned above. When Zhao Shaokang went to campus to give a speech yesterday, he especially emphasized that if he is elected as the vice president, This is his guarantee to promote the cabinet system . If he does not promote the cabinet system after one year in office, his vice president can resign. I think this is because many policies now have been proposed but have been rejected after eight years. Emphasizing that what he said is true, this is one of his statements and the guarantee he made to the students. So what is Ke Wenzhe doing? He is playing left and right, almost all blue and green , and among them, he asks a lot of questions every day. No one responded. Is it because Ke Wenzhe feels guilty or is he unable to answer the questions in people's minds? As for the illegal construction, of course the fight was very fierce. The blue and white people were all attacking the choked Lai Qingde. He thought that if he illegally built the building now, he would not even agree. If handled properly, it means that this person will become a dictator when he becomes president because he has no ability to reflect at all. Let's continue to look at the polling numbers and see what the political party polling support shown in another poll means . How many seats may a district be divided into ? If the support of a political party is higher , of course the seats in the Legislative Yuan will be different. This trend is interesting. Almost in terms of support for this political party , the Kuomintang leads the DPP. With this gap, It is almost consistent with the current single polls conducted in various regions. That is to say, the KMT's regional legislators to non-district legislators seem to be relatively optimistic about the election , including the survey conducted by Youtai Mirror TV. In the regional part of the legislative polls, the Kuomintang is also in the lead , while the People's Party may be as low as 20%, or as low as 8.5%, etc. So now the Congress is becoming the so-called split vote that the DPP is most worried about. The question is: Will DPP supporters vote for one political party for the President and Vice President ? If they vote for one of the legislators, they may not all vote for the DPP . Will the DPP become a minority party in the Legislative Yuan? Secretary-General Xu Limin is very nervous. I quickly said that I am worried about Han Guoyu 's pro-China attitude if he is elected as the Legislative Yuan. How to attack South Korea with all his strength is actually to deal with the trend they have found in the current polls . In terms of party proportional votes, regional legislators are a little bad. Among them, Lin Feifan also beat Lin Feifan. The first person to reject Han Kuo-yu and so on. These are obviously all directed at Han-Kuo-yu. How did Han-Ku Yu respond ? Listen to his talk and poll numbers . Brother Liang , there are so many people. Does it look like the DPP will have a nightmare? The current polls It is roughly divided into two categories. One is the T station, Beautiful Island , and the Youtai station. Youtai also released a poll today. They are two majors and one middle school . It is obvious that Lai Qingde and Hou Youyi are competing for this. Ke Wenzhe probably has not reached 20%. It is probably like this. But if you go to the Confluence and Mirror News, it will become two or three twists, one in two, one in two, and one in two. In fact, this is the situation that Lai Qingde hopes to see most. Yes , but I believe that the former category is The DPP will be more troublesome if it is not the DPP, because it will always be on guard until the end. Just now, you just said that Huang Weihan said that there is a problem of switching to voting , or we are talking about split voting. There are some people who are still legislators and support the People's Party regardless of district. They will run to support what we call the majority of the opposition party. This majority of the opposition party. In fact, if the polls conducted in Formosa Island are only 38% to 39% of people are willing to do so. In this way, 38% to 39%. If you use Hou Youyi's poll to look at Hou Youyi's poll , because in today's latest poll, he dropped again , only about 29%, close to 30% . Anyway, this is the number. Of course the DPP will go Even if Lai Qingde is about 35% so far , if 38% or 39% of people are willing to make a choice at the last minute, he will be very tired. I also heard another voice that there are some legislators in the local area , especially in the south. I want to vote for the Democratic Progressive Party , but his president may not vote for Lai Qingde. There are two kinds of split voting... In fact , there is a very strange phenomenon in the current polls . In fact, no matter which party it is, we must pay attention to it. There is not a huge lead gap. For example, Tsai Ing- wen opened 67% in Tainan in 2020 , and then almost all in the south such as Yunjianan exceeded 60% . This phenomenon will definitely not happen this year. I think Lai Qingde Now Amitabha is probably doing well in the high-screen conference. The high-screen is probably only about 50%. In Tainan, Lin Junxian helped him brag that he would open to 60% . But think about the mayor election between Xie Longjie and Huang Weizhe. 43% to 48% of the votes were so close. Then Huang Weizhe’s first selection was only 38%. You can know that Tainan’s handicap has been changing and has been broken . It is not an iron plate . Because it was Huang Weizhe who encountered a lot of opponents for the first time, so he It’s only 30% . Because if you are strong enough, how can anyone dare to challenge you? It means he is not strong enough. But it has been a long time. It has been so many years now. It has been about 5 or 6 years . Tainan has become broken one by one. So for example, Wang Dingyu , the district chief of his district jumped out to challenge him, so Chen Yixin didn’t have no chance at all. It became like this, and it became a three-strong alliance. I think the Democratic Progressive Party. In fact, this time I went to see the legislators from various places. I think the competition is within about 5%. I think there are about 14 districts. It's very scary. It's so accurate. It 's very scary. It's very close. I know... I know what you mean. It's gone as soon as you turn it over. So the atmosphere in the last week became It is very important, but Hou Youyi also has one thing that he should pay attention to , that is, he won very little in New Taipei City and lost greatly in Taipei City. Both places are governed by the Kuomintang . Huang Lv Jinru said that if you win the internal polls, go to the polls and it will be different... Based on the polls , I tell you that Taozhumiao is obviously the winner. No matter which poll, Taozhumiao is obviously the winner. But it doesn’t make sense that Taipei City is losing. I think this is the chairman of the committee, Jiang Wanan or Huang Lujinru. It may be necessary to supervise the army to fight. The grassroots troop drills must make a final effort. Hou Youyi Hou Youyi, New Taipei, if there is no big win, how can you make up for the votes lost in the south ? So he must go to New Taipei to drill troops because there are many people in New Taipei. The votes issued by New Taipei plus Taipei are incredible. In fact, if you don’t win a certain amount here, you will not be able to beat the high screen, especially in the Jianan high screen places. The voting situation you lose changes rapidly, especially the difference in the numbers of each poll actually depends on There may be a reversal and changes at any time now. Everyone is paying attention to the trends of so many different polls. I major in philosophy and I prefer to do qualitative research. I have some doubts about the polls , but we, Brother Liang, He basically studies politics, which is quantitative research. I feel like listening to the content of his speech, I think I can talk about it here because I usually have more contact with young people in classes. I myself am a I am a relatively iconic figure in National Taiwan University because I have a clear stand, right? Brother Liang still remembers it, right? So in this case, I feel that I have not encountered any challenges or any differences from students so far this semester. I have never experienced the idea. Sometimes , you should make a choice after you know it. Sometimes, I deliberately create something like this in words , because I think that among young people, I have observed an important result myself , which is that now The quality of young people is very high. All of them are based on urban people's self-expectations . Their words cannot be asked in the polls about their tendencies. They will definitely have a bailout effect after a period of time . It is very likely that they will simply not vote and not be able to make a decision , or if so, the influence of home schools is almost non-existent nowadays, and the influence of peers is very large, so you can actually ask this, I think it is best. Zhao Shaokang's method is to go to campus and talk to students directly face to face. If you have any problems, you can tell them. For students, 1/3 of them will believe that in the past, the Kuomintang was hiding and only engaged in power deals. Now, there are When Zhao Shaokang came out, I think this method, although I think the effect is limited , he can basically face it directly because when Lai Qingde came to give a speech at National Taiwan University, he was asked by students that he was in a mess, right? Then when Ke Wenzhe gave a speech to the students, the students liked him talking very much. But can the country be governed by talking nonsense ? Are you kidding ? There is another point that I think is very important because what I said originally was full of worry. After all, we and Brother Liang cannot compare to Brother Liang. We span the whole of Taiwan. We are a small ethnic group, right? So in terms of feeling. But when you mentioned New Taipei City and Taipei City, I can guarantee you that Hou Youyi is indeed in New Taipei City . Because I recently went to the New Taipei City government to handle some matters, his influence is indeed true. I have always thought that his New Taipei City is. His foundation is actually the same, right ? And in Taipei City, the people I recognize in Taipei City include people who belong to this category. Among the entire urban population of Taipei City , basically people like me who return from the blue camp make up the majority. Most of us, at least our colleagues in the Department of Philosophy at National Taiwan University, behave the same way during meetings, whether they exchange glances , pass notes , or express their positions, so you can see this here. Yes, it is indeed a chance to win. Because just now Teacher Li asked me what I thought about it. I said that it is not simple to have a chance to win. I used to think there was no hope at all and now I feel that every day We all live very hopeful, right ? Why do we live very hopeful every day ? I feel my morale is rising. I have never seen the concentration and unity of opposition forces in my whole life . And we have to thank You Xikun very much because we are still talking about it here. Why can't Hanguo Yu be the president of the Legislative Yuan? You Xikun of the Democratic Progressive Party's Legislative Yuan. Don't be shameless. Do n't be shameless. I'm happiest living like an animal, right? I've been looking forward to living like an animal for a long time. You're calling me a pig. You're calling me a dog. You're a pig. What a dog can do can also be done, right? What You Xikun said has basically offended the basic values of our entire culture. I believe that no one in the audience in front of the TV would dare to say what You Xikun said. What kind of words are there in the democratic era? Sovereignty is the natural right of the people . What do you know? What books have you read? Have you ever said anything more about moral consciousness ? You don’t even have basic human intuition , so this is already a challenge to basic values. Have you said that there has been a big qualitative change in the support of some political parties among regional legislators ? I think party support is also a very important observation point. This also involves what I think is the general list of non-regional lists proposed by the Kuomintang this time. It's really not bad , especially compared to the professionalism of the candidate proposed by the Democratic Progressive Party and the lack of the so-called feeling of dividing the spoils. It's not bad. I will add the young group I just mentioned because it feels like it is a battleground for military strategists. I personally think that observing from the side, Hou Youyi and Zhao Shaokang probably have a good tacit understanding and mutual trust in the division of labor and cooperation. Hou Youyi probably has thorough grassroots contact in Taiwan and is able to propose a series of policies. As for the important tasks assigned by Zhao Shaokang now I probably entered the campus and will be admitted to National Chengchi University yesterday . I also went to National Taiwan University and Qingdao University today. I think I probably read this. My feeling is that I can tell everything in about 16 words and answer all questions . I think this is full of straight-ball duel . It's important because the Kuomintang does include candidates. Young people may have a stereotype of being conservative or old. Did they answer students' questions well ? I think they are very sincere. And I think young people actually don't need to please you at all in their words. Tell him what you think sincerely. Now if I am elected, what will be different in the future is that I have a completely new menu. And I tell you that if I are elected, the menu will be different , and I have the ability to prepare this dish and serve it to you young. People will make their own judgments and don’t force it , but there will be some peer effects that will spread. Of course it will take time , but assuming there are more events in the next 20 days, I think the effects will come out slowly. I will add that the second point is of course this time. Many people regard the election campaign as war and peace , but I think it is much more than that. Basically, I think it is a lifeless 8 years in power and a promising future with reversal and change , because after all, 8 years in power will be somewhat satisfying. There are many places where the sun cannot shine . They need to be tested and reformed before we can do better by exposing these bad things to the sun. I think this point is actually about resorting to change. That possibility moved me. I think this is the second important indicator besides war and peace. We have talked about economics and politics too many times before , as well as economics, people's livelihood, politics and security. What have we gained in the past 8 years ? Are we still willing to come back in another 4 years? 8 years? Whether it is the gap between the rich and the poor in housing prices, wages are getting smaller and smaller, and politics and democracy are regressing . I think the most criticized thing may be that after all, in 8 years, the arrogance in the mentality of governing has slowly appeared. I don’t think we often see it in people . When the Kuomintang was in power, there would be a situation where officials would question legislators. Otherwise, what would you do and seal up all state secret information for 30 years ? No matter what, you have never seen the news channel , but you have never seen these things that claim to be independent. The independent agencies do not feel independent at all , so there is also Taiwan Strait security. I think they are doing a lot of internal propaganda. Our next topic is to discuss Taiwan Strait security.
