Russia Strategic Weaknesses in Ukraine

ukraine is a critical piece on russia's chessboard a bit like the rook protecting the king ukraine protects moscow for russia when the rook is lost the king is exposed to what it considers a dangerous queen nato and the west so when russia looks at ukraine it sees a land buffer against europe however ukraine's critical strategic value from moscow resides not only on land but in the crucial role it plays in controlling the black and dissolved seas [Music] russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma churchill's 1939 maxim evokes a familiar feeling people across the western world were shocked at the news and many analysts considered an attack unlikely and illogical but yet it happened albeit seemingly irrational there is a key that might help decipher russia's cryptic intent and that is geography geography imprisons countries and their leaders constraining their choices and actions this geopolitical principle is important for all countries but it is even more relevant for russia as its main geographical characteristics lies in its own indefensibility this explains russia's centuries-long aggressive expansion towards siberia the caucus and europe expansion dictated by the country's lack of defensive alternatives its leaders aimed for in lack of anything else to create the widest buffer between its core and its enemies this nightmap shows how vast and sparsely populated the country is russia's center of gravity roughly corresponds to the medieval grand principality of muscovy this is not only where the majority of russians live but it is also russia's least defensible region not a single mountain lake swamp or river sits between moscow and the rest of europe historically russia's enemies have used two main invasion paths from asia the flat and arid step that led kubli khan and his golden horde to invade all the way to kiev in the 13th century the second route is the european northern plain this vast flat land is like an invasion highway extending for much of the length of the european continent from northern france to the urals region historically this route has been used by numerous invading forces from the teutonic knights in the 13th century to the nazis in the second world war from napoleon's invasion in 1812 to 1945 russia has been invaded along this route around once every 33 years if under the soviet regime the ussr achieved the greatest level of security by pushing its boundaries all the way to the elbe river in germany where the european plane reached its narrowest point its dissolution in 1991 meant that this strategic advantage disappeared overnight russia's federation's border retreated east giving up in the proceeds around 1 300 kilometers of buffer territory now nato has a direct border with russia in the baltic states roughly 600 kilometers from moscow ukraine is therefore an essential piece on the russian chessboard on land kiev provides strategic depth against nato keeping the russian border far from the alliance's eastern front she also anchors russia to the caparthian mountains the only relevant geographical feature that interrupts the northern european plane in the region as many other great analyses pointed out the lack of geographical features along the northern european plain is like an open door for any invader into russia thus it is in russia's national interest to put as much buffer between its core moscow and its historical enemy europe however ukraine's value is not only on land but perhaps most importantly on the sea as alexander dugan's influential foundations of geopolitics postulates coastal ukraine is essential as the northern coast of the black sea could be exclusively eurasian and centrally subordinate to moscow ukraine's critical strategic value for moscow resides in its key role in controlling the black and dissolved seas ukraine's coastline on these two seas connects russia and romania and nato member and as such remains a key objective in securing russia's national interests this can be seen in what seems to be the directives of russia's 2022 invasion military operations have focused on controlling kiev the capital and in securing the coastline with battles happening around the major ports of mary upon kirsten and odessa logistics dictate war and the control of the azov and black seas allows russia to extend the necessary logistic and supply lines for supporting the invasion further south and through the nipper river allow the country to supply its troops further inland at the same time russia can effectively stop the seaborn supply of foods and weapons into ukraine disrupting the invaded country's fighting capability however strategically speaking russia's major interest in controlling the black sea is to secure the flow of goods in and out of russia's core but first some context despite possessing the third longest coastline on earth russia is essentially a landlocked country and that is for two main reasons first the country suffers from the chronic lack of warm water ports apart from tartus in syria the ports in the black and white seas and in the cola peninsula all of russia's ports freeze during the winter months meaning that both civilian and military ships halt operations from these ports because of this russia can only count on a handful of operational ports during the winter and these ports are all concentrated in a fraction of its vast territory around myrmansk in the north and sevastopol in the south consequently this reduces its navy's deterrent and surprise capabilities the freezing waters are not the only issue in order to gain access to the open seas russian forces need to pass through choke points controlled by nato allied countries the skaggarak straits between denmark and norway and the baltic the turkish straits guarding the access between the mediterranean and the black sea the gibraltar strait between morocco and spain and finally the english channel and the guik gap from the arctic sea into the northern atlantic ocean these choke points have meant that if any major russian navy vessel wanted to steam from one side of the country to the other it would have to sail straight through the enemy's crosshairs imagine now if panama were in an alliance with russia and the panama canal was the only way to move the u.s navy's 10 billion aircraft carriers or state-of-the-art submarines between the pacific and the atlantic this would be a huge concern for america's national interest and could potentially be a major source of conflict for washington and in fact that's exactly what caused the invasion of panama in 1989 but let's stop digressing and return to russia there is one often overlooked factor that can ensure russia unfettered access between its northern and southern ports and that is the unified deep water system of european russia this system is the shortcut that connects all of the european seas safely within russian territory made up by the volga europe's longest river the dawn the moscow and a series of smaller man-made channels it extends for almost 6 500 kilometers with a guaranteed depth across its course of four meters in 1988 right before the soviet union collapse these waterways served as the country's circulatory system moving around 580 million tons of cargo and some 30 million passengers annually this waterway acts as a major transport artery connecting russia's core with its peripheries the commercial ports in the baltic and white seas in the north the industrial and mineral hubs in the ural region and the oil and gas rich caspian and black seas additionally these waterways connect russia's three largest seaports of st petersburg murmansk and novorossiysk with russia's largest urban area moscow these ports guarantee that the majority of russia's sea imports can arrive into the country from there goods are then transferred into barges fitting the limits imposed by the locks and then dispersed throughout the volca in the north these exchanges happen in saint petersburg and murmansk in the south the most important port is rostov-on-don and here again is where ukraine's strategic importance comes into play this port is the poor man's version of new orleans in the united states they both connect the continental heartland with the sea and vice versa transporting the inland produce like crops mineral fertilizers and timber to the sea and then steaming upstream with fuel gas coal and semi-refined metals the two ports also share another key similarity these two trading hubs are geographically threatened by choke points if new orleans is reliant on the choke points created by cuba at the gulf of mexico and by the way check out my video on america's geopolitical weaknesses to know more about this rust of on dawn is dependent on the cursed strait connecting the sea of azov with the black sea this choke point is at the center of conflict with ukraine and is one of russia's major strategic interests in the region along with crimea and northern ukraine russia's 2014 invasion looked to secure not only sevastopol one of its largest warm water ports but also to directly control the dawn base and luhansk regions limiting ukraine's access in the sea of azov from moscow's perspective control over the black sea is essential in securing its southern border and the way to achieve and maintain this control is through crimea in the sea of azov for russia sevastopol is the one ring to rule them all sevastopol also acts as the home port for the black sea fleet born in 1794 with the goal of becoming the guaranteer of safety of the southern borders of the fatherland the port is as essential to russia as pearl harbor is to america one protects russia's southern border while the other oversees america's pacific coast from the perspective of a potential aggressor attacking russia from its southern flank could solve the logistical problem that meant defeat for napoleon nazi germany and many other invaders before them as russia already uses this route to move goods and people in and out of moscow the same waterways can be used by an invading force to move their supply lines further inland in the case of nato bases close to crimea these could be used to quickly seize the kirsch strait and rostov-on-don and could essentially take control of the flow of military and civilian ships moving throughout the southern end of the volga river this is a major weakness of russia's geography and one that a ukraine inside nato would critically threaten from a russian perspective ukraine is the key to russia's security of its southern and western borders therefore any move by ukraine to get closer to nato could be considered as an existential threat to russia militarily speaking the sea of azov is not only essential in guaranteeing access from medium-sized military vessels to travel from the north to the south via the volga waterways but also from the east to the west of the country the opening in 1952 of the volgadon canal connected the caspian port vastracon in the volga river's delta to the sea of azov this represented a major step in securing russia's southern border this is the only channel that connects the landlocked caspian with the black sea ukraine's role in the sea of azov is compounded by the strategic role that the unified deep water system and the caspian sea have for russia albeit seemingly irrelevant to the world's affairs for the strategists in moscow the caspian and black seas are militarily relevant for two main reasons first the caspian sea allows russia to set foot into the middle east and central asia's regions expanding its political and military influence there and second control over the black sea pushes russia into the mediterranean and the eastern europe as an example in 2015 russia launched 26 caliber medium-range missiles from its corvettes in the caspian sea against anti-assad forces in syria flying for more than 1 800 kilometers these missiles signaled russia's strike capabilities to the whole middle east with a reported range of 2500 kilometers these ship-based missiles could theoretically strike the majority of central and south asia and major urban centers in the middle east from the caspian sea ukraine is russia's main and most present security concern as long as kiev shares a border with russia she will be under the kremlin's gaze and presumably russia will not leave the country without a promise that ukraine will not join nato or the eu if you enjoyed this video please subscribe and leave a like thanks and have a good one [Music] kamome stands with the ukrainian populations against this conflict part of the proceedings of this video will be donated to unicef [Music]

Channel: Kamome

Views: 456,274

Keywords: documentary, narration, geopolitics, science, map, map animation, international relations, strategy, narrated documentary, geography, politics, US, geopolitics of asia, infographic, narrated video, voiceover, animated map, Ukraine Conflict, Russia Conflict, Ukraine Russia, Crimea, Invasion, Azov Sea Strategy, Black Sea Strategy, Russia Strategic Weakness, Russia Geography, Educational, russia ukraine war, ukraine news, ukraine war

Id: l5KXeFdpyaE

Length: 16min 28sec (988 seconds)

Published: Mon Mar 21 2022