China's Next 10 Years

this is Xi Jinping with his confirmation as Secretary of the Chinese Communist party for an unprecedented third term he has broken 40 Years of term limits into booze making him the most powerful leader since communist China's founder matsdong breaking of tradition she overturned deng's Adagio of hide your strength find your time and has turned it over to a Showcase of strength and assertive rhetoric in doing so he is leading China and the world into Uncharted Territory from the South China Sea issue to Hong Kong she has drastically overhauled China's peaceful rise policy ushering in a new era of tensions in the world increasingly confrontational relations with U.S administrations technology ban exports in increasing International condemnation of human right abuses in xinjiang and the vaporization of one country two systems in Hong Kong and its consequences for Taiwan make xi's next 10 years so critical to understand among the many four main areas deserve a major Focus first China's internal politics and she's oppositionless control second Foreign Affairs and The Sovereign relationship between China and the US third military Affairs and the acceleration and the strengthening of the people's Liberation Army and lastly pursuit of technological Independence in the military field foreign Congress of the Chinese Communist Party the CCP I Jinping was re-elected for a third consecutive term this is a big deal it ends more than 46 years of political reforms inside the CCP started in 1976 with Mao's death modern China's spiritual father Deng Xiaoping used his political influence to have the two consecutive term rule enshrined in the CCP Constitution the goal avoid Mao's era cult of personality and political violence for more than 40 years this rule ensured the different ideological factions could co-exist inside the party and find their way to power bringing new ideas and preventing the over concentration of power the so-called Democratic dictatorship with his third term she essentially dumped away deng's political Legacy and any Democratic residue with it cementing his own personal power effectively reconnecting with ways of the prc's founder Mount zadong she's third term main political Victory is the ousting of any opposition from the party's main control room the political Bureau or politburo until she's second term the seven men politburo standing committee the PSC the 25 men and now 24 with no female representation in large politburo and the 400 men Central Committee had three main competing factions linked to powerful figures within the Communist Party the so-called XI Jiang Army United around she a Shanghai gang close to former secretary Jiang tumin and the town pie faction close to xi's direct predecessor hujin town this ensured the balancing out of the secretary's power for example a key political figure like Lee kuchong whose Protege acted as Premier under xi's first and second term and was the second highest member inside the PSC now also thanks to the facade of anti-corruption policies both Jiang and whose factions almost completely vanished from apical positions she is pervasive rule of the party and the state has broken 40 Years of the faction systems concentrating all the power to his person as the party Charter recites government the military society and schools north south east and west the party or better said she leads them all the lack of opposing voices inside China control rooms might also be a factor of an increasingly assertive International posture the militarization of the South China Sea the territorial disputes with India Southeast Asian countries Japan and Korea and the Crackdown in xinjiang and Hong Kong and the consequent breaching of one country two systems are all examples she's aggressive foreign policy but what about the future before diving deep into that a quick word from our sponsor have you ever looked for a gift that is both ecologically sustainable original and sophisticated we'll look no 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to the video despite she's Bolder foreign policy China is not ready for a full-blown confrontation of the West not yet however she is accelerating to get the country ready for it there's a new Milestone mentioned by she in the 20th Congress opening speech that depicts a short-term strategy 2027. this year not only marks the end of xi's third term and possibly the start of his fourth but also the pla centenary in xi's words 2027 will forward China's goal of elevating our people's Armed Forces to world-class standards the clear recipient here is America which unarguably represents the global Military Benchmark however this shouldn't be seen as China trying to blindly emulate U.S military capabilities rather to be able to field a similar or better force in its own area of Interest China doesn't need the global Force projection that America has it is more interested in its immediate surroundings from protection of Border areas like Tibet xinjiang and the South and East China Seas to perhaps more immediately the reunification with Taiwan this last one is closely linked to another paragraph of xi's speech when he says we will become more Adept at deploying our military forces on a regular basis and in Diversified ways this will enable us to shape our security posture and manage crises and conflicts and win local Wars in regards to Taiwan it doesn't get more local than that it is also interesting to read this in light of China's confidence in winning local Wars against the U.S on the 2022 Taiwan white paper we can read how shortly after the PRC was founded China and its people won a resounding victory in the war to resist U.S aggression and Aid Korea 1950-1953 we defeated a powerful and well-armed enemy through gallantry and tenacity what seems only a historical reference to the Korean War actually seems to hint at how China believes itself capable of winning a close war against America if China was able to do it then when it was still battered from the Civil War and poorly equipped what about now that it possesses an almost world-class military realistically speaking shorter logistical lines and minimal Force projection would drastically help China in successfully invading Taiwan even in the midst of a confrontation with the U.S what is clear is that she is hitting the gas for pla modernization as previously mentioned she framed 2027 to be the year when the pla will take a step closer to becoming a world-class Force but how should this goal be implemented a Ministry of National Defense spoke person Ren gwuchong described the following four elements as critical milestones in reaching this achievement these vary from AI to Doctrine modernization however two main points are useful to our analysis the first one sees an acceleration in the intelligentization of pla operations intelligentization is seen as the integration of artificial intelligence and related Technologies in the operational capabilities of the pla AI is seen as a force multiplier in pla Doctrine thought to enable China the achievement of military superiority over stronger militaries like the US the second one expands on a major tenet of xi's ideology the military civil Fusion ji-min wrong Hua in Chinese the military civil Fusion mcf is embedded in Chinese strategy and the U.S Department of Defense describes it as a nationwide Endeavor that seeks to fuse China's economic and social development strategies with its security strategies this last one is a major Concept in both operative scenarios like in building logistical and supply lines for the invasion of Taiwan but also in supporting the development of new technologies like semiconductors and AI in xi's view the mcf is a major factor in strengthening the PLA and thus achieving China's foreign policy goals similarly to Western countries industrial defense policies China's mcf is based on mutually beneficial relationships between the state and private defense firms for example big companies like Raytheon in the U.S or Talis and Leonardo and Europe have developed symbiotic relationships where the state relies on the domestically produced technological know-how and the companies rely on National procurements in the Chinese case mcf adds another step to this the governmental fundings is used not only to explore new technologies like DARPA does in the U.S but also to help companies obtain commercial viability this makes up possible for these to elude the markets and not compete directly against more mature players giving them a chance to fight and become viable this is also important as the state can direct these companies production in spite of their commercial viability and this is a major factor in a possible war with the U.S China's leadership can direct the production volumes of specific weapons and can leverage on a large basis of semi-statual Defense firms U.S companies instead are more reliant on Commercial viability and the pentagon's bureaucratic and budgetary constraints the Chinese industrial defense base can quickly adapt to support a conflict end is large enough to supply both China and Russia at the same time for example China possesses a three to one ratio of shipbuilding capabilities compared to the US America's industrial base is now optimized for peacetime and emphasizes r d rather than procurement however the war in Ukraine is showing that the US is running low on its Armament supplies like the javelin and ammunitions and Chinese technological achievements in the fields like supercomputers AI space exploration Hypersonic weapons shows that China is not as far behind as we might have thought indigenous Innovation is a fundamental step in view of a possible confrontation with Washington as it makes it possible for China's Armed Forces to reduce their Reliance on foreign technology this is because of two reasons first the replacement of foreign Parts with domestically produced ones is relatively easy to obtain with current Chinese manufacturing capabilities length the development of weapon systems means that state-of-the-art Technologies are rarely used for example much of the domestically produced chips used in night vision goggles or navigation systems still uses old 40 and 20 nanometer chips for comparison modern Apple computers use a 5 nanometer architecture also Chinese manufacturing capabilities that Supply Global markets can easily cover the smaller military production volumes second technological Independence holds the advantage of making China capable of pursuing its foreign policies without fear of supply blockades the example of the Russian invasion of Ukraine lays out a clear scenario for China Russian equipment relied too much on foreign made ships and sensors used in their jet avionics and tanks and the bands on the export of such materials caused significant performance drops in the case of an invasion on Taiwan China would face a similar situation with sanctions and Export bans being thrown its way technological Independence frees she to pursue its assertive foreign policy objectives in spite of the international community's possible disagreement and in the next decade we should expect an acceleration in the development of domestic military technology China has already shown the world that it is capable of achieving such independence fast and with impressive results a major example is the development of the JM 5400 GPU used in the pla drones and aircrafts which starting back in 2018 replaced the canadian-made M9 GPU another instance is presented by supercomputers used in developing and testing of new technologies such as Hypersonic missiles and new Wing design in 2015 the Obama Administration halted the export Intel Xeon fee processes to China and just a year later in 2016 the Military jiangnan Institute of computing technology in cooperation with semiconductor manufacturing international corporation smic completed the indigenous Sunway tahu light which briefly held the title of the world's fastest supercomputer in the next 10 years we should expect an even stronger push towards technological Independence in China which she aims at making a SNT Powerhouse China will undergo many changes in the next 10 years the main Trend will see a further push to diminish the country's Reliance on foreign Technologies and products a strengthening of its Armed Forces capabilities and a more independent foreign policy we should also expect a more combative rhetoric with the U.S over issues like Taiwan Hong Kong and xinjiang if you like this video please leave a like share and subscribe if you particularly enjoyed it then check out the patreon page in the super secret Discord Link in the description in any case thank you so much for watching and

Channel: Kamome

Views: 120,329

Keywords: documentary, narration, geopolitics, science, map, map animation, international relations, strategy, narrated documentary, geography, politics, China, Taiwan, US, Japan, geopolitics of asia, Taiwan politics, Taiwan strategy, infographic, narrated video, China-US, Xi jingping

Id: pV-QCV-ctJc

Length: 15min 43sec (943 seconds)

Published: Sun Nov 27 2022