This is the European Union’s border with Ukraine, an 863-mile-long frontier, dominated by an ongoing friction between Russia and the West. The recent conflict with Russia
has turned the Eastern European countries into a litmus paper of Europe’s external strategy, violently exposing all of the EU’s internal weaknesses inside a status quo increasingly challenged by China and Russia. In this video we will analyze EU weaknesses
encompassing its 5 major peripheries: Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, the Middle East, Africa, and the Arctic. If in reality, Europe faces a plethora of challenges, you can also try your strategist skills online thanks to our Sponsor, Conflict of Nations. Conflict of nations is a real time grand strategy game that lets its users take control over a country
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and let’s play together in the game! Find my ID down in the description. And now back to Europe. Ukraine should be seen as the latest in a series of wake-up calls of Russia’s role
in undermining European security. From the invasion of Georgia in 2008, to meddling in elections across Europe and in America, Russia is exposing and exploiting
the cracks in the European project. A critical issue that the European Union faces is that it does not have a major strategic
interest shared among its members. Loosely based around the goals and values of its core, namely Germany and France, the Union’s main focus up to now has been
on fostering close ties to the United States. However, the Union's interests
become increasingly murky the further from the centre one travels. 1) Eastern Europe Eastern Europe and the Balkans have always
been the largest strategic threat to both the EU and Russia. The region's critical importance
can be explained by its geography. Continental Europe can be broadly split in half, with mountainous terrain dominating the southern region, namely, the mountain chains of the Pyrenees in the West, the Alps in the South, and the Urals in the East. In comparison, the northern region of
Continental Europe is dominated by lowlands. Here is the most important
geographical feature to Europe’s core: the Northern European plain. This is essentially an uninterrupted expanse of flat land stretching from France’s border with Spain, all the way deep into Russia’s central Asian territory. Historically, this plain has been featured as the
prime invasion route between Russia and Europe and has played decisive roles in the outcomes
of some of the region’s largest conflicts, most notably the failed conquests of Russia
by Napoleon in the 19th century, and the Germans in the 20th. Important battles that shaped the balance
of power in Europe have been fought here: From Teutoburg to Agincourt,
Waterloo to Operation Overlord. In our modern world, the area has an
equally important role in shaping Europe. The flatlands that previously saw countless battles now enable large-scale production of crops and the movement of vast amounts of people
and goods among the EU member states. These plains now contain some of the region's
most important population centers. From Paris to Warsaw, this area holds
the majority of the EU population and GDP. This map shows the population density of Europe, highlighting how strongly aligned it is
with the North European Plain. These plains are at the forefront of all strategic
planning for the major powers on the continent. Since the end of the Second World War,
the western plains between France and Germany, once the battleground of thousands
of years of countless conflict, have experienced unprecedented peacetime
now that it is firmly within the EU. However, the eastern side of these plains
remain at the forefront of the strategic concerns and considerations for the region’s heavyweight players, with Eastern Europe quite literally caught between them. In 2004, ten new member states joined the EU,
of which 80% were Eastern European countries. Militarily, this decade also saw a large expansion
of NATO influence in the region. Following the fall of the Soviet Union,
the EU and NATO pushed their boundaries east of their 1980s frontline. In 2004, several new Eastern European members joined NATO, including all three Baltic States. This brought both EU and NATO borders
directly in contact with Russia, which was too weak to pose any resistance at the time. From Russia’s perspective,
the expansion of Western influence in the Eastern European region
is the realization of centuries of fear and anxiety about
the security of their Western borders. Since 2004, Russia has grown considerably more influential. In the early 2000s, the US turned its
focus away from the European region following the 9/11 attack. At the same time, the EU was rocked by
internal division over foundational concepts like its shared currency, values,
and borders, and for the first time ever, its territory shrank following
the departure of the United Kingdom in 2020. These events have not passed unnoticed by Moscow. The recent invasion of Ukraine starting
in 2014 with the occupation of Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine showed Russia's intent on halting the expansion of Europe’s and NATO’s influence into the East. Ukraine is but the latest episode
of Russia’s renewed assertive agenda. The situation in Ukraine has highlighted
that EU member states, especially France and Germany, all have different and sometimes contrasting interests when it comes to the definition of common European security. These differences have primarily focused on
the perception of the threat posed by Russia. At best, this has led to complacency
that only stokes Russia’s boldness, such as the 2014 annexation of Ukrainian territory, both directly and by proxy, which followed the annexation of
Georgian territory by Moscow in 2008. At worst, these differences lead to complacency
that gives Moscow more direct power over Europe, as has been seen in European countries failing to distance themselves
from reliance on Russian gas imports. Eastern Europe was also really important for the Soviet Union, and for Russia now, in the supply of critical raw resources. However, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine could
mark a watershed in the EU-Russian relations. What Russian President Vladimir Putin achieved
was to unite EU members' interests by boosting the perceived threat of Russia, and turning the decades-long suspicion of Russia into hard action. In addition to this realignment of military strategy, Putin has re-kindled Europe’s values system, an issue that has driven continuous turmoil
within the region over the past few years. 2) The Caucasus and Central Asia Since 2003, the EU has started to seem
increasingly interested in the Caucasus. This region is a borderland, sandwiched
between Asia and the Middle East, and has access to two major bodies of water;
the Caspian and the Black Seas. Much like Eastern Europe, the region traditionally
has been a much-contested area for its strategic geography, namely access to those two waterways, and the Caucasian mountain chain, which define Russia’s southern border. In the modern era, however, it is equally as important for the
vast natural resources it possesses. Unlike Eastern Europe, Russia is the
sole dominant figure in this region, but similar to Eastern Europe, this has much to do with Moscow's
constant anxiety about securing its borders and giving the Russian state as much strategic depth to buffer the geographically vulnerable Russian heartland. This has long informed the major conflicts in the region, which are as alive today as they ever have been, exemplified by the conflict
still raging over Nagorno-Karabakh. From the perspective of the EU, making friends
in the Caucasus’ affords two great benefits. The first comes as a containment policy for Russia. Historic and modern conflicts with Moscow have made the region far more receptive to cooperation with the West. Second, it allows Europe to expand its influence into Central Asia, gaining access to lucrative trade routes with this resource-rich region, and further east into China. This is important for the energy sources
presently used such as hydrocarbons, but more importantly for minerals, that Europe requires to drive the transformation
of its transportation and energy production sectors. These minerals are required for the development of products like solar cells, wind turbines, electric vehicles, and batteries. These technologies would effectively allow
the EU to divest itself of its reliance on Russia, and regain leverage in future negotiations with Moscow. The same logic should be applied to oil and gas. Europe depends on Russia for
the majority of its energy imports, supplying around 26.9% of oil, 46% of fossil fuels like coal, and around 41% of gas to the EU in 2019. As was highlighted in the diplomatic fallout
around the invasion of Ukraine, energy independence from Russia
is a key strategic priority for the EU The Caucasus region may hold the key to this independence. The Caspian Sea Basin and Central Asia in
general hold large hydrocarbon reserves. Geologists have estimated that the region
might hold anywhere between 50 to 160 billion barrels of oil. Theoretically, these reserves alone would
be enough to meet Europe’s current oil demands for more than 20 years. This is even more applicable to natural gas. Central Asia holds an estimated 7% of the global reserves and has shown a great deal of interest in tapping markets outside of the traditional Russian exports. 3) the Middle East In a similar vein to the Caucasus, the Middle East may hold some key elements in fortifying the EU against Russian coercion through energy markets. For example, in 2019, Iraq and Saudi Arabia contributed 9.0 and 8.0%
of Europe’s oil supply respectively, but with Russia’s vast 27% of
the European oil supply up for grabs, there is plenty of room for further
supply from Middle Eastern nations. At the same time, the EU has been a vocal
critic of human rights abuses in the region, and is itself struggling with waves
of nationalism within its member states, largely driven by EU border policy flaws exposed by decades-long refugee crises, such as those of Syria and across
sub-Saharan and northern Africa. This already complex relationship is only further complicated by external relationships on both sides. For the EU, its relationship with the Middle East is dominated by the expectations of the United States. Washington’s decades-long stagnation in the region, defined by an ever increasing web of
war, negotiation, secretive deals, and often time swapping stances on whole countries, has only further restricted the EU’s ability to
carve out stable relationships that serve its needs, especially if they conflict with those of the United States. For example, Iran supplied around 5% of EU’s oil needs in 2015, a figure that could theoretically
rise to 15% with minimal investments. Relations with the West were warming as a
2015 deal allowed Iran sanction relief in exchange for discontinuing its nuclear programme. That was until 2018 when the Trump
administration pulled the United States out, effectively tossing the entire deal away. The EU attempted to maintain relations and
keep negotiation going regardless, but its hand was forced when the
United States threatened to increase tariffs on European automaker imports. Perhaps most luckily for the EU, its increased need for friends in the region
has coincided with a recent breakdown in relations between Middle East heavyweights and Moscow over the same oil the EU is so keen to access. The Middle Eastern dominated Organisation
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC, had in recent decades forged
extremely close ties with Russia to expand its influence over the global supply. This amicable relationship existed until arguments
broke out at the start of the pandemic on how oil prices would be manipulated
in response to the falling global demand. This disagreement eventually led to a breakdown
in the relationship to the point where Russia and Saudi Arabia started a short-lived price war in an attempt to flood global oil markets and inflict damage to each other's economies. 4) Africa Much like the Middle East, Africa has a long
and complex relationship with Europe, and may also hold the keys to diversifying
the EU away from its reliance on Russia. In the era when Europe was the literal end of the earth, Africa was the gateway to the Arab world, India, and most importantly - China. African trading posts have had
a significant influence ever since, helping to shape European colonization of the Americas, Asia, and the African continent itself. After the wave of independence in the mid-20th century, many of the new African states
were wary of their former colonizers and had been left in extremely poor condition by the asset stripping and
underinvestment of the European powers. With much of the West’s attention focused
on the Soviet Union, Asia, and then the Middle East, Africa has been largely overlooked and most interactions have been via extractive business like mining, or in the form of military intervention
to keep sympathetic leaders in power. Today, Africa is seeing a resurgence in global interest as its resources and strategic location
are again becoming the focus of large world players. The lack of attention to Africa from
Western powers has allowed other countries, particularly China and Russia, to increase their influence in the region,
moves of which the EU has taken note. These two countries have dramatically
expanded their influence in the continent, especially in the military realm. China opened its first military base in Djibouti in 2016 and accounts for 13% of arms sale in the region. Russia has over the years become
Africa’s largest weapon supplier, far above the US and France, accounting for 49% of total arms
exported into Africa in 2020. Further, Russian contractors, like the Wagner group, have deployed to various African countries such as Mozambique and Mali in support of their regimes. China itself is also Africa's largest creditor and investor, with promises to invest even more into the country with direct trade amounting to $200 billion in 2019. France retains major assets in sub-Saharan Africa, through a complex web of alliances,
military presence, and a business investment called the France Afrique region. This region, and Africa as a whole, is essential
for Europe for three different reasons: First, colonialism has created cultural ties with Europe, including shared language and religion, but also more clearly through
immigration between both continents. Many pockets of Africans exist throughout Europe, and many Europeans also live across Africa. Second, with some of the highest
fertility rates in the modern world, African countries are set to become some
of the biggest markets across the globe. Especially as development in these
countries continues to pick up the pace alongside this baby boom. Finally, these countries hold some of the
most abundant raw material deposits on Earth. Africa as a whole is home to 30%
of the world's mineral reserves, including 40% of the globes gold and diamond mines, and up to 90% of Chromium and Platinum, essential for the creation of Stainless steel and hydrogen fuel cells. Some individual countries control almost the
entire reserves of some of these materials. For example, the Democratic Republic of Congo
has around 65% of the world's known Cobalt, essential in the production of batteries, and together with Rwanda, they extract half of the Tantalum on Earth,
used in the production of electronic equipment. Nigeria is already the third-largest supplier of oil to the EU, and perhaps most famously, South Africa produces vast amounts of gold and diamonds, and also supplies a majority of the world's
Platinum, Iridium, Rhodium, and Ruthenium, resources used in the defense sector. While these resources will become increasingly
important for advanced manufacturing in Europe, perhaps the greatest asset of all will be
the African people themselves. France has already begun to appeal to
the value Europe can give Africans through education and work opportunities, and perhaps this will be the area
where the EU can most capitalise on to increase its influence in the region. However, European countries are not always
able to cooperate and find a common stance. Libya is a case in point of this. The North African nation, which spoiler alert,
will be the focus of the next video, has been divided by a decade long civil war, where opposite parties are supported by Italy and France. For Europe, it is important to find a common solution
in order to maintain its influence in the region, where its influence is already
challenged by Turkey and Saudi Arabia. 5) Arctic Perhaps the most strategic of all regions
in the near future will be the Arctic, where the EU is directly involved through Scandinavia, and indirectly through its interests in curbing Russian influence, a sentiment shared by its North American allies. Geographically, the Arctic has always
represented a relative backwater area, with most of its valued resources and potential trade bound up in ice and extreme isolation of the region. The Arctic has traditionally been used only
for extremely rare and sparse military uses, such as the early warning systems installed
by the USSR and the United States during the Cold War. Today, that is no longer the case. The Arctic is heating up, both literally and figuratively. As climate change advances the ice
continues to diminish year after year, and lucrative new trading routes are literally being carved out. Less ice also means more habitable environments, which could be utilized by civilians caught up
in the economic battle for the region, but also poses significant potential
for increased numbers of soldiers. Over the past few years the region has become
increasingly important for two main reasons: First, the abundance of natural resources, like hydrocarbons, fisheries and minerals; and second for the shipping lanes. A US Geological Service study estimates that
the Arctic region holds around 30% of the world's undiscovered gas and around 13% of its oil. This has set many countries, primarily Russia and China, on a hunt for these resources, pouring in hundred of billions of dollars worth of infrastructure, such as Russia’s new massive gas plant, the Kemal project. The region will also see an increase in shipping activities, especially those connecting Asia with the EU, new Arctic routes will shave huge amounts of time, and therefore cost, off what may be the world’s most strategic trade routes. For example, given estimates that Arctic ice
is expected to retreat by 10% every 10 years, a newly opened route from Yokohama, Japan, to Europe, using the Northeast passage along the Siberian coastline, would help decrease shipping times by 40%. The EU faces two main issues here: First, despite the ice melting, icebreaking capabilities are required to operate year-round in these waters. Second, these ships will rely on passage
through both a major chokepoint: the Bering Strait, and a majority of their journey
will be through Russia’s vast territorial waters. There is potential for the passage
to be considered an international strait, allowing free and unencumbered passage, but with this fight already heating up over
Canada and the US - two of the world's closest allies, it’s unlikely that Moscow will be accommodating to such a proposal. Collectively taken, EU members have the second-largest
icebreaker fleet in the world at 29 vessels, though a bit less than half of these are used in the Baltic. However, that fleet is far outnumbered by Russia’s 46 ships. The main weakness here, as with many flaws
in the EU’s stance against Russia, is its lack of cohesion. EU maritime policy has traditionally
focused on the Mediterranean, with Scandinavia, and especially the United Kingdom, doing much of the heavy lifting up North. Russia has been spending significant
amounts to secure the region with huge new commercial and military ventures opening across the entire Siberian coastline, most likely in an attempt to secure
as much as possible, as quickly as possible. One thing that is for certain, the EU, even
with the UK and US standing behind it, is both vastly out-tooled and outgunned
by Russia in the Arctic. Whether you are a head of state or a gamer, if you don’t want to find yourself outgunned as well, be sure to invest in your strategy. Claim your exclusive gift of 13 000 gold and 1 month of Premium Subscription via the link in the description! Conclusion Europe’s strategic diversity is like
a kaleidoscope of national interests, with different border regions dictating
the priorities of each member in different areas. Eastern Europe and the Balkans, the Caucasus,
Africa, the Middle East, and the Arctic are all strategic regions which all pose their
own challenges, and opportunities for the EU. The invasion of Ukraine has become a watershed of promises to realign European strategic thinking. The imminent threat of a conventional military invasion has united the majority of European powers
against one common enemy: Russia. All in all, we might now see a shift in Europe’s strategic posturing following the events in Ukraine,
snapping itself out of its internal squabbles and reasserting itself as a truly global player. Be sure to like and subscribe! Thanks for Watching and have a nice one! XD
