[Music] [Applause] good morning good morning good morning how are you guys doing right isn't this beautiful wow this is really just gorgeous and Salim it's not been eight or nine years it's been 11 years dude 11 I know what time goes fast when we're together so it's a pleasure to be here I want to talk to you we have an hour and 15 minutes together and I want to talk to you about the extraordinary excitement opportunity world we're about to inherit and that the world is going to be very different in the next 10 years we're gonna see more change in the next decade than we've seen the last century we're at a point of accelerating change and I want to give you a sense of where we're going and what the implications of these technologies are so my goal is to give you an overview you're gonna dig down deeper over the course the next two days and at the end of this my hope is that your nautical about the future but you're excited by it ok all right so let me jump in the first thing is to realize that we all as humans have a disadvantage the hundred billion neurons in our brain and the hundred trillion synaptic connections that are the wetware and hardware of how we think evolved on the savannahs of Africa hundreds of millions or hundreds of thousands and millions of years ago so we think and our brains respond to a world that was very different back then back and the savannahs of Africa the world was local and linear right nothing changed over century to century nothing changed millennium to millennium and so we had these cognitive biases that are local and linear but it today the world is nothing but that today the world is global and exponential something happens in China or India you know about it seconds later computers about microseconds later things are not changing you know century to century or decade to decade they're changing year to Europe and it's a challenge for us if you plot the way humans have grown cognitively over the last you know hundreds of thousands and millions of years this is us we haven't actually changed we haven't had our hardware a software upgrade and two million years since our prefrontal cortex grew but the technology that we're here to speak about at this incredible summit computation sensors networks AI robotics 3d printing blockchain synthetic biology augmented virtual reality all of these technologies are doubling every 12 to 24 months and it looks like this and the difference between this linear thinking world that we live in and this exponential technology that you're going to be learning about is either disruptive stress or disruptive opportunity so if you're in a fortune 500 company and some kid in the garage comes along with this disruptive technology it's disruptive stress for you its massive Xmas disruptive opportunity for the kid and in my last book I talked about this so let's talk about what this exponential what this concept of exponential means what does it feel like what is exponential anyway so if we think about our linear mind we are great linear projectors you know I take 30 steps in 30 steps I'm in the back of the room 30 meters away and we can all do a great job seeing I'll be there in 5 meters daring 10 steps there in 30 steps I've got two six-year-old boys and they're in the perfect linear phase of their life but if I said to you where are you going to be in 30 exponential steps we're an exponential as a simple doubling one two four eight 16 32 and again we don't think this way but in 30 doublings I'm not in the back of the room in 30 doublings I'm a billion meters away put differently I've gone around the planet 26 times and it's this difference between us linear thinking humans and the exponential growth of technology that is giving both amazing opportunity and incredible disruption right and the challenge is when governments and executives and organizations are taking the past and projecting it linearly when in fact it's anything but that so we're going to be talking about Exponential's over the course in the next few days and to give you a sense of you know what it really truly looks like or feels like let me give you another visualization this is Gordon Moore this is the founder of Intel one of the cofounders of Intel who came up with this idea of we're gonna connect transistors on a piece of silicon and make what's called an integrated circuit the basis for computer chips and for the incredible revolution we're living in and in 1965 he publishes his very famous paper he says at Intel we've noticed something the number of transistors that we can put on a piece of silicon has roughly doubled every 12 to 18 months and then he said it's likely to continue so he noticed that pattern after seven years and said it's likely to continue and it's continued for 50 years and we've given it a name called Moore's Law and so if you look at what this looks like on the photograph here what you see is a horizontal and a vertical transistor about two centimeters in size now fast forward to their first commercial product and this is Intel's you know they're four thousand four it's 2,300 transistors about a buck each now let's fast-forward 45 years to their core i7 product this is fourteen point four billion transistors and it's a three hundred and thirty billion fold price performance increase now it's kind of hard to fathom what 330 billion fold better is right but three and three billion better is expecting to download a 10 megabyte file at 40,000 feet when you're flying across the Atlantic so let's take a little look at this in 1956 this is a 5 mega byte hard drive 120,000 dollars and if you could you know if you had your cargo airplane you could move it from location to location now in 2005 we changed the form factor this is an SD card it's got 25 times more memory and one thousandth of price this is sort of an extrapolation of Moore's law but it doesn't stop here right because now nine years later it's 128 gigabytes for the same price 99 bucks right on schedule on Moore's Law right in 10 doublings you're a thousand times better in twenty doublings you're a million times better in thirty doublings you're a billion times better but it doesn't stop here right because today it's a terabyte Ray Kurzweil and I are investors and advisors to a nanotech company that's working on molecular memory and I want you to imagine all of Google's data centers on a sugar cube so it doesn't slow down and one of the factors we're looking at is the notion that these technologies are not just continuing they're accelerating and making things cheaper better you know more capable more accurate look at this curve you're gonna see it over the next couple days a number of times this is the amount of computational power a thousand dollars could buy you over the course the last hundred ten years it's from Ray Kurzweil book The Singularity is near and I want you to note two things on this curve number one how smooth it is now there is no one saying okay next year we have to actually produce a computer this fast this is a result of using faster computers to build faster computers to build faster computers now Moore's Law is the last segment of that that red segment the fact that we had electromechanical relay you know vacuum tube transistors is what Ray calls the law of accelerating returns that using tools to make better tools make better tools and this has continued since the beginning of life this is the prokaryotic cell result in the eukaryotic cell resulting in multicellular life and continuing on and the other thing you can't see here is you don't see World War one or World War two look at that it's pretty smooth and it's the realization that unless the human race ends it's going to continue that's going to continue unabated and when it continues what you get is this in 2023 what is that six years from now a thousand dollars is now buying you the computational power of 10 to the 16 cycles per second which is the rate at which your brain and my brain does pattern recognition now 25 years later a thousand dollars you buys you the computational power of the entire human race know now your kids homework that's really easy so one of the realizations I've had is that this ubiquitous infinite computation and it really is heading towards ubiquity infinity and 3 it's like the oxygen in the room you know today a child in Mumbai can spin up a thousand processor cores on Amazon Web on AWS I mean it's extraordinary and this faster cheaper computer is enabling all these other technologies so as computation gets faster so do sensors networks AI robotics 3d printing synthetic biology blockchain and so forth and we can be an expert in any one of those on that list but that's not what's interesting what's interesting is the recombination the convergence of these technologies and the new business models that are coming out of that and so on is excited about new business models as I am about the technology so what I'd like to do is take a moment to talk about the implications of these exponential to colleges in different industries in different areas now you're gonna have amazing faculty over the next two days dive down deeper into some of these but let me take a second to actually just give you an overview so one of the implications of these Exponential's is going to be robotics and particular autonomous cars here's one of Google's first autonomous cars it came out of the DARPA Grand Challenge that's celebrating its 10th year anniversary here's Larry Sergey and Eric Schmidt in their fleet of autonomous Prix I and the question is how fast our autonomous cars gonna change our lives so I went back in time and I looked at a historical analog so let's look at this this is New York in 1904 and if you look at this photograph back in 1904 and you look very carefully you'll find that about 10% of the vehicles in this photograph are what automobiles now fast-forward and let's look at New York City the same streets in 1917 and all of a sudden we've got a hundred percent of the vehicles the the car was so much better than the horse that it literally displaced everything an extraordinary speed and the question is when did this happen how fast did it happen well the Model T came out in 1908 as the first mass production car and then by 1912 we tipped to a majority of cars in four years time so when you think about how fast it can happen and when you look at Exponential's displacing linear systems you see this very rapid right the digital camera destroyed photography over the course of just two years Netflix destroyed Blockbuster over the course of just two and a half years you see these very rapid transitions occur on the heels of exponential knowledge ease so one of my best friends is Jeff Holden who's the chief product officer uber he runs ubers autonomous car program and they're flying car program and his projections is we're gonna see autonomous ubers on the road in next two years time now what's interesting it's not just autonomous uber - its autonomous electric vehicles and if you look at the economics these autonomous electric vehicles are gonna be five to ten times cheaper than you owning a car and when something is five to ten times cheaper let me tell you what happens you park your car you sell your car you get rid of your car because you don't have auto insurance you have to fuel your car you have to worry about parking anymore and you get rid of those vehicles that are no longer of value and all of a sudden you're a I will talk about this notices your schedule and it knows that you have a meeting it sees you walking out your front door and without even asking an autonomous electric uber has shown up your front doorstep to take you where you to go and if I hate driving I live 12 minutes from my office and so if I can minimize that time it's gonna change everything but the implications of autonomous vehicles are staggering what happens all of a sudden if no one owns a car anymore well first of all they're no parking tickets they're no speeding tickets so cities have to worry about where their revenue is coming from if you know friends of mine owned some of the largest malls in America and I said you're deploying ten billion dollars of new moral facilities 40% of your footprint is parking lot if no one's driving there anymore you're gonna have to repurpose that we're gonna get rid of parking garages driveways parking areas it changes everything of course you've got Tesla with level five autonomy being built into the current generations with NVIDIA supercomputers eight cameras twelve ultrasonic sensors Don wall cruise here from Magna has a massive program for autonomy into across the board all the brands that are going on my friends at way mo at spun out of Google now partnering with with lyft and Chrysler and Avis we're starting to see incredible progress so the question is what's the end point here and the punchline is this experts predict car ownership dead by 2025 so what does this mean for you if you're in auto finance auto insurance and even in real estate all of a sudden if I don't have to worry about my drive time I could live an hour away from where I work because I get to sleep during that hour or watch videos or meditate whatever the case might be so it's gonna change in fact why people live in downtown cities so that's cars that's what Tana miss cars in transportation we're going to start to see electric airplanes coming in this is just one example of electric aircraft coming online in the next the next four plus years but besides that I know you know Larry Page is on our board at the XPrize as investor my company's is a hundred percent focused on electric flying cars right vertical take-off vertical landing but it's not just Larry Page with the two companies he's backed its Airbus planning these airborne taxis by the end of this year and it's not just Airbus it's uber committing hundreds of millions of dollars for point-to-point so all of a sudden how you get transported location location is about to change so it's not just autonomous cars and flying v tall's it's also a Hyperloop I'm on the board of Hyperloop one one of the founding board members here's our first pod here's our facility test track we're reaching 300 km/h we're looking at connecting Dubai and Abu Dhabi which is normally a two-hour trip imagine being able to do that in 14 minutes right and then throughout the world but it's not just autonomous cars and flying vehicles and Hyperloop you know let's take out this video that just came out from SpaceX last week [Music] [Music] so I want you to imagine a world in which how we move our meat bodies around is about to radically change it's about to become a much smaller world I've even touched on the notion that virtual reality is gonna stop our requirements from actually having to go anyplace and then my friend dr. Harry kloor who's in the audience over here is working on something called the Avatar XPrize in which you're gonna over your consciousness into a robot someplace and never move your physical body so how we relate how we connect what we do where we go is about to radically change this isn't twenty years away that's the next decade we're talking about the next couple years a number of these things are rolling out alright let's talk about the implications of Exponential's on energy so in this past year we've seen that solar and wind is cheaper in 30 plus countries renewables are twenty five percent of the world's power let me just remind the White House that coal is dead and it's never going to recover and and for those of you and I know Canada is very much a fossil fuel petroleum nation petroleum is not far behind and you look at the Middle East in the Emirates and Qatar even in Saudi investing billions into renewables because they've seen this coming right so we're seeing Scotland generating 106 percentage of energy from renewables Costa Rica well over a year we're starting to see nation after nation saying no longer we can allow internal combustion engine cars we're going full electric and we're seeing a number of car companies saying we're no longer gonna be actually manufacturing internal combustion cars there is a wholesale change in process so I'm a pilot and when I fly from Santa Monica Airport to Las Vegas to go and to blue board meetings to go and see our test track over there this is what I see out the window over the desert I see photovoltaic plants I see solar thermal plants and they're popping up all over the place and we're seeing truly an exponential growth in renewables but the challenge is this is great when you're in the desert but what about you know this is my approach pass into Santa Monica Airport when you're over LA or over downtown Toronto where all you see is concrete and and rooftops well guess what we're going to turn all of this into solar collectors as well right last year we saw the first kilometer of solar roads in Normandy France we're seeing at Tesla that deployment now of solar collecting and roof tiles which will be asked cheap or cheaper than the cost of photovoltaics and roof tiles I'm going to be installing this on my house and then you see massive increase in battery production so we're going to be hearing tomorrow from Hermes Nam who's incredible in terms of energy so I don't two skill too much of his thunder but this is one Giga factory and the prediction is that a hundred Giga factories produces the world's requirement for battery storage for going to all renewables and then Ramez will talk more about this but battery prices are plummeting faster than even the most optimistic points of view were all right we've talked about transportation we've talked about energy let's talk about this connected world that were inheriting let's take a look at this we're about to deploy in the next two years something called the 5g Network and this is for the terrestrial connection of your phone these 5g phones are going to have 10 200 gigabit connection speeds this is the equivalent of your phone having a million cell phone connection capacity compared to the first cell phones 10 to 100 gigabits that's insane right that's going to compete directly with fiber-optic to your home but it's not just the fact that you're getting those connection speeds on voice and video it's that any one of these 5g nodes is going to be able to backhaul a hundred thousand sensor data ports per city block we'll talk more about that so besides the terrestrial layer of hyper connectivity Facebook is deploying drones and satellites Google balloons and satellites Richard Branson Paul Jacobs Greg Wyler with 1.2 billion dollars of backing from Softbank are about to deploy a 900 satellite constellation called one web to cover the entire globe and then layer on top of that SpaceX is announcement of a four thousand four and twenty five satellite constellation for broadband and there's gonna be no place on the planet that you're not connected by a gigabit or better so let's look at this in 2010 we had 1.8 billion people connected on planet earth today to update my numbers it's 3.8 billion people connected today by 2022 to 2025 we're gonna connect every single human on this planet eight billion people being connected not like you and I did you know at 9600 baud right these are 4.2 billion new minds coming online in the next what is it six years at a gigabit speed and these people are all gonna have three digital devices why are their devices going to be free why am I is a company going to give kids all over the world a digital device a tablet a phone because if they don't have one they can't buy something from it right so imagine Amazon just making them available to everyone or if I give it to you I want access to your data I want to see what you're buying where you're going what you're doing because the data is that you gold so imagine eight billion people connected with a gigabit now these are eight billion people with access to the world's information on and by do with access the ability to spin up Amazon Web Services the ability to you know call down AI we're about to see an extraordinary world where we have eight billion entrepreneurs inventing discovering if you thought things were fast hold on we're about to get things into hyperspeed as eight billion people are creative agents now one of the things I realized is these eight billion people the 4.2 billion new consumers they're all gonna want banking they're all gonna want insurance they're all going to want education they're all going to want healthcare and maybe clear they're not going to get it by going to a bank branch they're not going to get it from talking to an insurance agent they're all going to be getting this as a digital device on their tablet or their phone and we're gonna see a massive creation of new services serving those 4.2 billion people maybe those services are developed in China of Pakistan or Africa but they're gonna come back here in the United States and we're gonna see this competitive pressure from around the world alright let's talk about health and longevity one of my company's human longevity I'll mention it later is one of the largest genome sequencing companies in the world and my co-founder craig Venter sequenced the first human genome back in 2001 it cost him a hundred million dollars about a year ago this announcement was made by Illumina that their new machines are going to be able to sequence a human genome for a hundred bucks in two hours we're seeing a millionfold reduction in costs in the course of the last 18 years it's stunning stunning and I've seen designed for a ten dollar genome we're seeing CRISPR right hopefully you've not been hiding under in Iraq and you've heard of CRISPR cast nine editing human genomes we're seeing CRISPR cast nine actually used to cure cancers out of China we just saw in human embryos CRISPR being used to edit and cure genetic disease in this case beta thalassemia we're seeing the engineering of t-cells this is one of the things that my lab at hli is done where you take a t-cell if you've got a cancer and your your immune system has somehow not responded to that cancer you're able to take out your t-cells and engineer them to actually say look this is the cancer these are the antigens attack this all of us are constantly developing cancers it's that our immune system finds them and kills them early on and sometimes you don't and sometimes you have to tee up if you would your your t-cells to do that but 50 80 94 percent complete remission rates when you do this cancer is soon gonna be dead is it 10 years or 20 years I don't know but it's within our sights this is human skin tissue in culture on the left is what it looks like for aging skin when you stopped generating all of the collagen molecules like 23 different collagen molecules and on the right is when you turn on the embryonic collagen molecules again now this is being done in culture at Salk but look at what it would look like if you actually did this on a human tissue right it's the reversion back to youthfulness now on to read this this comes from the chief the team at Salk researchers at skull at Salk Institute were able to turn adult cells back into the embryonic like ones in aging mice and in vitro human cells and they also extended the life of the mouse human trial is expected in ten years this is from the principal author dr. Belmonte who said AG is a plastic process and more amenable to therapeutic interventions and we previously thought the point is that people are beginning to talk about aging as a disease aging as a disease and for me I'm focused on how do we add 30 or 40 healthy years on to your life Ray Kurzweil talks about longevity escape velocity that as our every year the human lifespan is getting a little bit longer and there will be a point sometime in the next 20 years where for every year your life you're alive your life expectancy grows by more than a year and that's called longevity escape velocity so stay tuned what's that mean for you if you thought all of a sudden I can live 20 30 40 years I think of my kids as having the potential for an indefinite lifespan I truly fundamentally believe that we just saw recently the award of the Qualcomm tricorder X Prize very proud one of our finalist teams cloud DX is in the back over here and this is a technology that is empowering individual the goal here I was having dinner with with Paul Jacobs the executive chairman of Qualcomm and we said you know that Star Trek tricorder that bones used to have we should have that by now and so we launched the 10 million dollar tricorder X Prize had hundreds of teams around the world brought it down to the finalists and we just don't Ward that but it's the idea of can you detect 15 diseases from a set of digital technologies not for a doctor or a nurse but for a consumer at home at two o'clock in the morning when your kids are sick with dr. Daniel craft who eyes are a bold innovator we're working right now on getting ready to launch a cancer detection XPrize our goal here is ultimately to a hundred million dollar XPrize stay tuned for more announcements there to detect cancer in its earliest stage where it's most curable and then I'm very proud to announce that we just had our XPrize vision aring summit this past weekend we had five teams p-ting and the X PRIZE which was voted up as our priority to launch this year is an Alzheimer's XPrize and Philip Edgecumbe please Philip stand up is our bold innovator come on up top so Philip has got his PhD done and is working on finalizing his MD was he's a graduate of s use GSP our Global Solutions Program he and I ran into each other at Ted and I said dude we need somebody to run this Alzheimer's XPrize effort and pulled him out of out of medical school and you've done an amazing job Phillip thank you so much for your work and we also announced 25 million dollars of funding that stepped up onto the stage Ric Edelman another member of the SU community who stepped up to put the capital against this Alzheimer's XPrize and will be announcing the details that more but if you see Phillip please congratulate him on the work he's done and it's a beautiful merging of the XPrize and SU relationship and he's a Canadian yes alright so the implication of Exponential's is we are going to extend health we're gonna make health available to everyone around the world I view a moment in time if you think about this right a child on a smartphone in the middle of Tanzania and Larry Page the chairman of alphabet have access to the same information right this complete democratization of access to information Google is the same independent of where you live how rich or poor you are it's incredible it's the dematerialization D monetization and democratization of information but that same process is gonna happen to healthcare that same process is gonna happen to education let's talk about the implications of Exponential's to what we call moonshot so we talked about moonshots a lot at singularity University I encourage the entrepreneurs I back and I tell them listen the world's biggest problems are the world's biggest business opportunities it's a beautiful situation want to become a billionaire helped a billion people so what is a moonshot and what is moonshot thinking Astro teller who's the head of X it used to be called Google X and Google sort of skunkworks operation talks about a moonshot as being that place where you go ten times bigger when the rest of the world is trying to go ten percent bigger now all of you can get 10 percent and we all as CEOs as executives we try and get 10 percent by working harder by working Friday and Saturday at night by hiring that really smart woman a really smart man or making that small acquisition and that's gonna really just move our margins 10% but think of this if you want to go ten times bigger like a hundred times greater than what you're doing there's no way in the world you're gonna get there from working harder it just isn't going to happen you literally have to start with a clean sheet of paper and reinvent in your mind what you're gonna do right digital photography was how we went and went a thousand times more photographs taken per day than before it was reinventing photography you know Netflix reinvented blockbuster you know SpaceX is reinventing launch capabilities Google reinvented how you get accent information again a moonshot is not taking and doing what you've done and just doing a little bit more of it you can't get there from there it really means trying crazy ideas right let me just remind you the day before something is truly a breakthrough it's a crazy idea we said that again the day before something was truly a breakthrough it was a crazy idea so we're inside your organization's are you trying crazy ideas what's your crazy idea Department if you don't have one if you're not enabling your employees your entrepreneurs your partners to try crazy ideas you are stuck in incrementalism are you with me on that it's really important I mean I can't tell you how impactful that was to me when I finally got that if you're not allowing yourself to explore and say okay how in the world do I make a flying car and what does that mean and and and ultimately a crazy idea and then you have to say okay okay I know it's crazy but how could it possibly be possible and then I'll tell you a story it was a during the founding conference of of singularity University I had a chance to meet the founders of series 3 guys who had created Siri and they had this vision of what Syria would be and they realized that technology to create Siri didn't exist yet but they could project where was gonna go they could see where computational speed was going and bandwidth was going and and we're cognitive work sort of where the computation convergence of voice was going and so they projected for where would be in three years and they built the product to intercept those technologies right there were skating to where the puck was going to be and if you build a technology based on what exists today by the time you come to market it sold and so it's really hard to think about okay let's I don't know how we're gonna do it I don't know where it's gonna come from but at the current rate of growth the technology is going to be here in three or four years let's build our product or service to intercept that technology really important point I can't stress that enough so I'd like to do is share some of my moonshots with you so two moon shots one is I am absolutely positively firmly convinced that we are going to significantly extend the healthy human lifespan the goal is to make a hundred years old and you 60 how do we give you the cognition the aesthetics and the mobility 200 that you had at 60 so I'm working on this in two different ways one I co-founded a company called human longevity that is partnered with Bob Murray and craig Venter we built the largest genome sequencing facility in the world but that's not what we do what we do right now is you come to our facility in La Jolla and you go through a six-hour process and we digitize you we sequence all 3.2 billion letters of your body we sequence your microbiome we do a coronary CT we do full body MRI brain brain quantified MRI vasculature measures we look at 2300 chemicals in your bloodstream and our goal in that six hours is there anything going on in your body right now you need to know about and it's a health check because when you end up in the hospital sick let me tell you it didn't start that morning it's been going on for some number of months and so imagine if every year you had a complete hundred fifty gigabytes of data about your body collected and then the next year you do it again and the next year you do it again and so you can find out is anything changing you know I have a model as to the Model X I love drawing though driving those vehicles they've got two airplanes all of these vehicles have hundreds of microprocessors hundreds of sensors measuring everything all the time for most of us our refrigerators are better wired than we are and so we're gonna move to a point where you're understanding what's going on your body and it's a health check so that's one part of what we do at the health nucleus the second is based on your genetics what do you like me to die from at least until we solve that problem called death right what are you likely to come to to succumb from and is it a particular kind of cancer your genetics are your medical future and then can we in fact then say it's likely to be these areas let's check for those more frequently so I call human longevity my don't die from something stupid company and we're in the process we've dropped the price from 25 thousand bucks to 75 hundred bucks for that annual process and I'm gonna try continue to dematerialize and D monetize that the other area I'm focused on is stem cells stem cells are the means by which we rejuvenate our body and when you're child you've got a hundred to a hundred thousand more stem cells coursing through your body than you do in your adult and those stem cells go and repair every tissue so aging is a process of your reduction of your stem cell populations and actually the functionality of those stem cells coat Canty rejuvenate that amazing company that my friend Bob Murray is a CEO i co-founded with him called cellularity alright my next moonshot insane idea we think about resources on this planet our planet is a crumb in a supermarket filled with resources and what we're doing at Planetary Resources is well going out to near-earth asteroids to mine these asteroids for fuels and metals and precious materials these are trillion dollar assets so you saw Elon Musk's announcement of his Mars mission by 2020 to 2024 his mission Jeff Bezos his missions everybody's missions are dependent upon refueling their spacecraft in Earth orbit and so our mission is to go and extract the liquid oxygen and hydrogen from asteroids and deliver that twenty times cheaper to them in Earth orbit then they can take it from the ground because right now every space mission brings every ounce of fuel from the ground my third moonshot is in solving Grand Challenges and here is the XPrize we've launched 150 million dollars worth of prizes and we're on deck for launching another two hundred million dollars worth of prizes it'll be hearing soon about the Avatar XPrize that dr. kloor is running you'll be hearing about our cancer XPrize or Alzheimer's XPrize X prizes for girls and women's safety X prizes for water x prizes for food so we're asking the question is where is their Grand Challenge it's not been solved where we can set up a large cash prize and challenge the worlds entrepreneurs eight billion of them to say I don't care where you went to school we're done you solve this problem you win the cash could be a 10 or 30 million or 50 million dollar prize and the world benefits so I'm very proud another Canadian Kristian kata Cheney is the CEO of Hiro X we've spun this out of out of the XPrize and this is a platform where you can go now and actually create smaller prizes so this is from their website they just announced a two million dollar go fly XPrize being funded by Boeing they have a million dollar prize funded by coca-cola and they've got $25,000 prizes in $10,000 prizes and you can create an a hero X competition in your community in your town in your company so it's a means by which and by the way it's free you only pay ten percent if the prize is successful in back end it's an amazing business model take advantage it's hero X H ero XCOM it's based in Vancouver but it's a virtual company amazing what they're doing so the question is what is your moonshot right what is your moonshot what are you working on where do you want to change the world where are you going ten times bigger when the rest of the world is going ten percent bigger because you can because you can all right we're heading towards the end and I want to focus in on this concept of abundance so one of the implications of Exponential's is that we're heading towards an extraordinary world of abundance and I'm gonna ask you guys to think in your own mind right now do you think that the world is better today than it was 10 years ago or 50 years ago or 100 years ago we'll come back to that question at the end so I'm very proud I had a chance to write a book if there are two books or there are three books that are sort of the core of singularity University it's Ray Kurzweil book called the singularity is near abundance and then what Salim wrote I had a chance to help him with called exponential organizations and I'm very proud I was the closing speaker at the last Clinton Global Initiative and when President Clinton was introducing me he said this is where my favorite books and he quoted from the book and then at the end of introducing me he said Peter why are you so damn positive about the future don't you watch the news and I said President Clinton I'm proud about the future for two reasons one no I do not watch the news and second I look at the data so let me talk about the first because I want to encourage you all to take a news diet I want to encourage you to get back two hours per day of your life in the morning when you're at the hotel or if you're out of town step over the newspaper when you get tempted by it the crisis news network CNN you know change it to something useful like you know The Simpsons or something the fact the matter is that is that the news media is a drug pusher and negative use is their drug we evolved on those savannahs of Africa hundreds of thousands and millions of years ago in a world in which if you missed a piece of negative news your genes were out of the gene pool and so we paid ten times more attention to negative news than we do positive news and if you think about it what's the business model of any news organization it's to deliver your eyeballs to their advertisers that's how they make business and if you're glued to negative news then that's what they're delivering if you open the newspaper just do an experiment and count the negative news stories versus the positive you story it's at least ten to one and so I'm not saying that they're not true but I'm saying it's not a fair and balanced view right there's no one standing outside the Toronto Airport saying there was no airplane crash here today all right no one's standing outside the local school saying no school shooting here today so all you hear is the negative views over and over and over again from around the world in high-definition from these devices it's no wonder we are just scared shitless about what's going on in the world but we don't see all the amazing activities going on and so we're bombarded and your mindset the way you think is so critically important so critically important and we just give it up to the news media to say okay do with my mind what you want never ever ever okay so let's look at the data over the last hundred years the per capita income for every nation around the world has more than tripled the lifespan is more than doubled or about to double it again the cost of food has dropped twenty fold the cost of energy is hundreds of all transportation thousands phone communications billions of fold cheaper so the question is why do some people think the world is worse today you know we romanticize the past we forget how short and brutish life used to be so let's take a look at some of the data on famine and plague and war so why should imagine this living in France 300 in the course of two years three million died 15 percent of the population died from famine and starvation could you imagine what it would be like to have 15% of any nation's population starve today take a look at this back to the Black Death in the 1330s 40 percent of a nation wiped out 200 million people killed globally we talk about a pandemic now and we talk about oh my god thirty people died or a hundred people died if you look at homicide our chance of dying a violent death today are somewhere between a hundred and five hundred times less than they used to be this is on a log scale you can look at the reduction of homicide in Europe alone we forget how Moorish how brutal we were as peoples so let's look at some evidence for abundance this is over the last two hundred years the number of people living in extreme poverty dropping from ninety five percent down to under ten percent this is the percentage of literacy around the world going from fifteen percent two hundred years ago to near eighty five percent today and by the way we in trials right now in Tanzania with a global learning XPrize Elon Musk put up fifteen million dollars twenty robins a million dollars the DeVos family there were seven million dollars and we've asked teams around the world to build an Android app that can take a child from illiteracy to reading writing numeracy on their own no adults no schools no nothing we had 700 teams enter that we got it down to the top five finalists Google gave us 8,000 tablets we've deployed those tablets into Tanzania and we put the five finalists on those tablets and we're measuring the impact on the child their family and the villages and we're running that experiment in Tanzania right now over the next 18 months and the winning software wins the cash the 15 million dollars and then we open-source it and so the notion is imagine if when we build a billion of these devices per year every one of these becomes a teacher rights we're building a billion teachers per year so we get that literacy rate up to a hundred percent this is global vaccination some people are finally getting the idea that my god it's science vaccinate your kids as a parent I think about this one in particular imagine 200 years ago where the chance of your child surviving to the age of five was a coin toss 45% mortality rate on your children how do you have a respect for life when half your kids are dying alright so we've gone from 45 percent down to four percent mortality rate below the age of four and that's still too high before the below age of five used to be dangerous to have a child this is Mort at a mortality rate for pregnant women plummeting we're seeing life expectancy explode so this is the story about life expectancy a hundred thousand years ago at age 13 you would enter puberty and you'd have a child right and then by age 26 your child is now having a child and you're a grandparent and when food was scarce before there was McDonald's and Whole Foods if you as the grand parent were taking food out of the mouths of your grandchild that was not a good way to pass your genes along in society and so the best thing you could do for The Selfish Gene theory was to die and give your bits back to the environment and so that's partly what happened but now in the age of abundant food you don't have to worry about that I love this chart this is looking at the number of children per country in different years so in the 1950s around a hundred nations had six or more children per family two things reduce the population growth rate pressures of a nation you make that nation healthier and better educated and the number of children per family plummet a number of my friends in Silicon Valley are worried about underpopulation of planet Earth not overpopulation of planet Earth right we're seeing negative growth rates in parts of the u.s. parts of Canada parts of Europe and throughout Japan check this out this is the death rate from cars and airplanes that orange line is the death rate from airplanes and at the end of the day what we're seeing is it is the safest means of transportation around the world on your less you're watching an airplane crash on CNN over and over and over and over again and then when autonomous cars come online that 1.25 million deaths per year is going to drop to zero as well we've had earthquakes in Mexico we've had terrible hurricanes in the Atlantic and in the United States this is the global death rate from natural catastrophes and what you see there is this plummet that occurred in the 1950s 60s and 70s what's going on there why is this death rate dropping it's the result of better sensors better predictive models satellites in orbit imaging and giving warnings one of the things I'm excited about is we just greenlit one of the prizes entering our Visionnaire summit next year is going to be a disaster prediction XPrize now can we use better data science and then the hundred trillion sensors will have by 2030 to actually predict earthquakes sooner or to predict where hurricanes are actually gonna go because we take guesses to a large degree and so for me this is one of the most telling this is the waning of war this is from the work of Steven Pinker or friend a professor at Harvard who says we're living during the most peaceful time ever in human history and the question is why is this all happening why is it happening now it's not that we've gotten smarter we don't have better politicians we haven't had a hardware software upgrades this extraordinary improvement in life this world of abundance that were creating is uplifting of humanity is a result of these exponential technologies that you're here to learn about so if you'd like a copy these slides they'll be up for the next couple of hours if you just go to that website and plug in your email you'll get these slides downloaded to you I also put out a weekly tech blog that you'll have access to and let me say thank you thank you to the founders of the summit thank you to all of you for coming here today it's a truly an honor and a pleasure we're on a mission we're on a mission to educate people about the extraordinary world ahead it's one in which it's better to be forewarned and to be excited to figure out how to use these technologies to positively impact the lives of a billion people and how to transform your country your nation and all that you're doing so tonight I'm going to actually be doing and ask me anything along with Saleem so if you have questions from today I think it's gonna be about 7:30 please join me we're gonna have a vibrant conversation I would love to answer any and all of your questions and with that I'll turn it back to to Saleem thank you all have an amazing summit [Applause]
