After Khubilai Khan’s death in 1294, his
successors ruled over the most powerful kingdom on earth, the Yuan Dynasty. A little over
70 years later the Dynasty was pushed from China, their rulers a shadow of the men Chinggis,
Möngke, and Khubilai had been. Today, we take you through the combined
economic, environmental and political, and military factors that led to the Mongols
losing the Mandate of Heaven, and China itself. We want our viewers to feel good, to look nice
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By the time of Khubilai Khan’s death in 1294, he had outlived his designated heir, passing it
instead onto his drunken grandson Temür Öljeitü. In the almost 40 years from Khubilai’s death
to the ascension of Toghon Temür Khan in 1333, nine khans were enthroned: of them, only Temür
Öljeitü reigned over a decade. Rampant alcoholism and assassinations meant few khans lived past 35.
Temür Öljeitü attempted to continue the policies of his grandfather, but within a year the treasury
was nearly empty, almost totally spent in lavish gifts for the princes after his enthronement. He
learned too of the intense corruption of the Yuan court. The quota for court and capital officials
was set at 2,600 persons. In the first year of Temür Öljeitü’s reign, it was found to be over
10,000. A 1303 investigation led to some 18,000 clerks and officials being charged with bribery.
In typical fashion, Temür Öljeitü lacked the commitment to push through with charges, and
most of the accused maintained their posts. While it has been common to attest the Yuan
Dynasty’s economic failings to corruption and lavish gift-giving—of which there was no shortage
of— recent studies have highlighted a greater struggle. The fourteenth century was the start
of the Little Ice Age, a global climatic shift towards generally cooler and wetter temperatures.
These strongly affected the Asian monsoon season, which in the fourteenth century manifested into
a general trend of intense colds and snowfall in the Eurasian steppe, droughts in north China and
unending rains and typhoons in southern China. These began to be felt in the very first years of
Temür Öljeitü’s reign. In 1295, typhoons struck the Yangzi River delta; the Yellow River broke
its banks in multiple places and caused repeated flooding; and a dry spell from the previous years
resulted in plagues of locusts that eradicated crops and continued for the rest of the decade. In
Mongolia, harsher winters starved herds and forced thousands south to seek support from the Khaan.
These ecological problems directly tied to the Yuan’s economic woes. Khubilai continued the
Song policy of huang zheng, government-provided disaster relief in the form of cash, grain,
rice, animals and other supplies. It fit well into Khubilai’s efforts at reconstruction and
relieving the burdens of the lower classes. None of Khubilai’s heirs dared repeal such a
law, for it was a basis of Yuan legitimacy. However, in a century of unprecedented climatic
disasters over a vast geographic area, this was an impossible burden. The detailed Chinese records
and the Yuanshi reveal a dynasty facing yearly crises. From 1272 until 1357, there was a major
famine somewhere in China almost every other year; over 56 earthquakes were recorded;
super typhoons on the southern coast coincided with super snowstorms in the steppe.
Exceptionally cold winters and unexpected frosts meant certain crops could no longer be grown in
the north. The densely populated Yangzi River Delta, home to one of the most economically and
agriculturally vital areas of the empire, suffered annual droughts, flooding, epidemics, starvation,
and typhoons which destroyed towns and farmland, causing thousands more to die in the ensuing
famines. In 1301 alone, a spring drought in the Yangzi Delta was followed by a massive
typhoon; arable farmland was destroyed for 50 kilometers along the coastline, and a 40 meter
high wave pushed 280 kilometres inland. 17,000 were killed during the storm, and 100,000 starved
in the aftermath. Only a month later flooding displaced people in Manchuria; a freak August
snowstorm killed herds in Mongolia in Mongolia; the imperial capital of Dadu was flooded; and a
locust plague struck Hebei province. Survivors needed government relief. Grain and rice shortages
caused the Yuan to cover costs only with cash, and to provide more cash, more had to be printed,
to the point it outstripped government revenues. Inflation was the result, and Yuan paper money
became ever more worthless over the 1300s. With seemingly unending waves of natural
calamities and an ever-more worthless currency, it seemed the Yuan were losing the Mandate
of Heaven, the right to rule China. On Temür Öljeitü’s death in 1307 without surviving
children, factions formed around his nephews. His nephew Qaishan was a man of the steppe with
no love or understanding of Chinese culture. Hoping to rule like a nomad through his noyad
- Mongol military elite, lavish gifts, princely titles, and palaces were spent on his friends
and allies. Four months into his reign, Qaishan found he spent over a year’s worth of government
revenue. In a panic, he spent the rest of his reign trying to address this, increasing taxes
and collecting debts cancelled by Temür Öljeitü. A new currency was put into circulation,
based on an exchange of 1:5 with the old. The volume of currency printed in 1310 was 7 times
higher than the three previous years, succeeding only in furthering inflation. On his death, in
1311 he was succeeded by his brother Ayurburwada. The new khan unleashed a violent purge of his
brother’s officials, reversed his policies, and abolished his currency. Ayurburwada wanted a
more traditionally Chinese-Confucian government, and reinstated the civil service examination
system to choose officials. He promoted the translation of Chinese classics in Mongolian, and
began the codification of the Yuan legal system. Such was the ongoing back and forth with each
new khan, with the top layer of government usually suffering a bloody overhaul and total
reversal of policies with each succession. Ayurburwada died in 1320, aged only 35: his
son and successor, Shidebala spent most of his reign battling Ayurburwada’s powerful
mother, only to be assassinated in 1323. His successor, his cousin Yesün-Temür, was likely
involved in the plot, and after only five years on the throne died in 1328 of illness, also only
35. Yesün-Temür’s eight-year-old son Ragibagh was enthroned at Shangdu on the efforts of
Yesün-Temür’s Chancellor, but the plan went awry when the Central Capital at Dadu was seized by the
head of the powerful Qipchaq Guard, El-Temür, who placed Prince Tüq-Temür on the throne. El-Temür
violently seized Shangdu, and young Ragibagh Khaan disappeared in the chaos. Soon after, Tüq-Temür’s
older brother Qoshila returned from his exile in the Chagatai Khanate. In August 1329 they met
in a warm reunion, Tüq-Temür recognizing his brother’s overlordship. Four days later Qoshila
was dead, and Tüq-Temür returned to the throne. But Tüq-Temür did not enjoy power for
his efforts, for El-Temür of the Qipchaq and his ally Bayan of the Merkit held real
power, reducing the Khaan to a figurehead. The Khaan dedicated his reign to studying
Chinese classics, practicing his calligraphy, and suffering immense guilt over his
brother’s murder. When he died in 1332, he had declared his brother’s son Irinjibal
as his heir in place of his own minor son. An aging and ill El-Temür reluctantly agreed, and
the six-year-old Irinjibal was duly enthroned as Great Khan… only to die two months later. The
court pressured El-Temür to recall Irinjibal’s exiled older half-brother, Toghon Temür, though
not before El-Temür married his daughter to him. Toghon Temür was the longest-reigning
Yuan sovereign after Khubilai, ruling from 1333 until his death in 1370. At
first he, like his predecessors, was a puppet. On El-Temür’s death, his ally Bayan took his
place. He desired restoration to an imagined “good old days,” under Khubilai, and sought to
enforce separations between Mongols and Chinese which had blurred over previous decades. Chinese
were banned from many government offices, forbidden from learning Mongolian and
other west Asian languages, the civil service examinations cancelled, the general
population disarmed and their horses confiscated. Yet Bayan also wanted to make the government
more efficient by cutting court expenditures, and reducing stress on the empire’s population
by decreasing the high fees on the salt monopoly, encouraging agriculture, and improving and
speeding up the government relief system. All his efforts were, of course, signed off by
young Toghon Temür, who lived in fear of him. Bayan’s centralization of power, and willingness
to respond to rumours of threats with great violence, galvanized resistance to him,
including by his own nephew, Toghto. In spring 1340 Toghto and Toghon Temür
exiled Bayan, who died a month later. With him went the last of those who wanted
to go back to the ‘old ways,’ succeeded by those who recognized, and even celebrated,
the sinicization of the Mongol dynasty. The new generation of court leadership was
symbolized by Toghto. Only 26 years old at Bayan’s ouster, Toghto was well educated and raised to
prominence by his uncle. Unlike Bayan, Toghto had no misconceptions about restoring things to
Khubilai’s time. To Toghto, Chinese culture and Confucianism were to be appreciated. Believing all
dynastic problems could be solved with a steady hand and powerful government, Toghto sought
to centralize and strengthen the Yuan with a variety of reforms. His first period as chancellor
saw the removal of the last of Bayan’s allies, the restoration of the civil service examinations,
greater incorporation of Confucian scholars into government than ever before, and actual visibility
to Toghon Temür Khaan. The Khaan finally gave a decree denouncing his uncle Tüq-Temür for
murdering Qoshila, and had Tüq-Temür’s surviving son executed. Toghon Temür’s own son Ayushiridara
was entrusted to Toghto to be raised and educated, and Toghto put great energy into molding the
boy into an ideal, Confucianized Mongol ruler. Throughout this political upheaval,
the environmental crises only worsened. The flight of Mongols and other peoples
of the northwest grew so bad that in 1323, 39% of the money printed was spent on
trying to send the refugees back with aid, before ultimately forbidding anyone from leaving
Mongolia on pain of death. Intense flooding every year of the 1320s annihilated croplands,
and inflation only continued to rise, and the population grew ever more agitated. Over Tüq
Temür’s three year reign, 21 rebellions broke out. No new revenues could be found
to pay for these expenditures while the costs of relief, war, the court, and
corruption continued to soar alongside inflation. While Chancellor Toghto imagined carrying
out great works to dazzle his contemporaries, his plans were cut short by the environment.
This was a decade of annual earthquakes, unseasonal snowstorms eradicating entire
herds, severe flooding, widespread famine, drought, and epidemic; including, in the opinion
of some scholars, the start of the bubonic plague. For the general population, the field
of frustration finally began to bloom into violent uprisings in the 1340s. In 1341,
there were over 300 bandit uprisings across central China, including the Red Turban
Movement. So-called for their red headbands, this was a number of loosely connected groups
which espoused a radical Confucianism calling for a drastic change of society through military
means to return to an older, ‘purer’ China. Toghto resigned his position in 1344,
allowed his successor to take the blame, then returned triumphant in 1349 when recalled
by the court. As by then Toghon Temür Khaan had grown bored of governing, Toghto was
now the dominant figure of the Yuan realm. Toghto ordered the printing of great sums of
money to tackle his greatest scheme: forcing back the Yellow River to once more enter the sea
south of the Shandong peninsula. Back in 1344, 20 days of nonstop rain caused the River to break
its banks and flood numerous districts and cities, cutting off the Grand Canal and draining into
the Huai River, which caused it to rise and threaten the salt fields in Shandong and Hebei
provinces. All before settling into a course north of the Shandong Peninsula. The threat
to the salt fields was a particular concern, as the salt trade and its taxes provided
six-tenths of Yuan yearly revenue, while the Grand Canal needed to be kept open to transport
rice and grain north to feed the capital of Dadu. There was intense opposition to the
project to reroute the Yellow River, but Toghto forced the plan through. Printing
2 million ingots worth of a new currency to pay for it, from May to December 1351, 150,000
labourers, and 20,000 soldiers dug a 140-kilometer long channel to successfully reroute the
river. Once more the Grand Canal was fed, the salt fields were protected and the Yellow
River exited into the sea south of Shandong. Toghto’s project was designed to protect the
producers and economy of the Yuan Dynasty, but it accidentally sparked off its ultimate
collapse. The large gathering of workers, hungry and weak from years of famine, punished by
cruel overseers trying to meet a strict timetable, and paid in money only a little above
worthless, was fertile soil for the Red Turbans. Even as work continued on the canal, a massive
revolt erupted in the Huai River valley. The Yuan were taken by surprise, and a
number of cities fell in quick succession, with few city walls having been
rebuilt after the initial conquest. In the first engagements, the government forces
were poorly prepared and beaten back, including an army commanded by Toghto’s brother. These were not
the highly mobile horse archers of the conquest but generally, local Chinese militias
commanded by Mongols and Central Asians. But Chancellor Toghto was custom-made for this
emergency. He immediately organized the defense, raised new armies, and conscripted militias. New
training and command structures were implemented. He knew he had to tread carefully, lest mismanaged
and underpaid troops join in the revolts. In a dizzying juggling effort, Toghto constantly
shuffled larger military units, transferring and reappointing commanders around the empire to
prevent them from forming alternate powerbases. The Yellow Army, mostly Chinese volunteers under
Mongol and Turkic commanders in yellow uniforms, became Toghto’s “nationwide
apparatus of pacification,” as termed by historian John Dardess. Leading
the most important campaigns himself, Toghto began to halt, then push back, and finally
overrun the rebellion. By the end of 1352, Toghto had brought the Huai
River valley back under control. Methodically, they retook cities and by the end
of 1354, Toghto was about to crush the final major figure of a largely broken movement, Zhang
Shicheng, now isolated in his capital at Gao-Yu. And at the last moment, Toghon Temür Khaan
snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. For unclear reasons, the Khaan ordered Toghto
dismissed at the start of 1355. A short-sighted and inept monarch, perhaps fearful of Toghto’s
growing might, yet at the same time unable to replace him, Toghon Temür ensured that Toghto’s
carefully balanced military machine collapsed instantly, much of the army deserting, and the
Red Turban rebellion exploded with new vigour. Toghto, a loyal servant to the end, accepted his
dismissal and was assassinated the following year. Toghon Temür sat almost idle as the Red Turban
warlords fought for the right to succeed the Yuan; after the battle of Lake
Poyang, this was Zhu Yuanzhang, who soon declared the Ming Dynasty. Toghon Temür
had little power over his remaining commanders, who fought each other as much as the Red Turbans.
By the end of the summer of 1368, Zhu Yuanzhang, now enthroned as the Hongwu Emperor, sent his
trusted general Xu Da to take Dadu. Toghon Temür and his heir Ayushiridara fled to Mongolia
only days before the arrival of the Ming armies, and on the 20th of September, 1368, Dadu came into
Chinese rule for the first time in over 400 years. The Hongwu Emperor renamed the city to Beiping,
meaning ‘pacified north.’ In time the city became the capital of the Ming Dynasty and was
renamed to Beijing, the name it holds today. Aside from a few Yuan loyalists who held out
for another twenty odd years, Mongol rule in China ended in 1368. The Yuan Dynasty, contrary
to common depictions, had responded vigorously to a dramatic climatic emergency, but could not
overcome such a massive crisis. Few states though, could have survived such a threat while
simultaneously suffering rampant political and economic turmoil that was continually compounded
by the environmental crisis. In this respect, it remains impressive that the successors of
Khubilai Khaan last even 70 years. More videos on Mongol history are on the way, so make sure you
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