as the war in Ukraine has entered into its third year the conflict continues to appear having no immediate end in sight while Ukraine has largely defeated the Russian Navy at Sea the war on the land appears to be slowly shifting against Kiev while Moscow appears to be increasingly emboldened in February of 2024 the Russians finally captured the city of of divka a major suburb of the city of dones that had a pre-war population of more than 31,000 people and Russian forces have been making a slow creeping Advance Beyond of Diva ever since an American foreign aid package for Ukraine where $61 billion continues to be held up in the US Congress while in March Vladimir Putin secured his reelection in Russia for a fifth term as the nation's president meaning that he will continue ruling in the Kremlin at least until 2030 with a possibility of getting extended even further for a sixth term until 2036 by which point he will be 83 years old not too much older than Joe Biden is today Putin is already the longest serving Head of State in Russian or Soviet history since Joseph Stalin and by the end of his current term in 2030 he will surpass Stalin and if he serves out through 2036 he will even surpass the reign of Katherine the Great to become the longest serving Head of State in Russian history since Peter the Great himself the founder of the Russian Empire with his political position as Russia's leader now secured for the rest of the decade his greatest political opponent alexe naali dead and silenced and with a major terrorist attack in Moscow that his government is attempting to pin on the ukrainians there are Whispers that the Kremlin is already preparing to roll out a second round of military mobilization in the country that'll seek to to call up an additional 300,000 men for the war in Ukraine even without the mobilization the Russian armed forces have been able to offer up attractively high enough salaries to poor Russians in the country and to even poorer foreigners enlisted as mercenaries that they're still seeing a fairly consistent stream of around 30,000 newly recruited soldiers a month to the front line in Ukraine according to the website Ukraine conflict monitor despite suffering massive casualties in Ukraine the Russian Ground Forces numbers present on the front line have been continually increasing with time according to the Royal United Services Institute a major UK than tank the Russians have greatly grown their troop numbers in Ukraine up from only around 360,000 soldiers at the beginning of 2023 to around 470,000 soldiers only a year later at the beginning of 2024 Putin himself has openly stated earlier this year that his plan is to raise the Russian troop levels in Ukraine up to approximately 600,000 strong which will be more troops in Ukraine than the United States had present in Vietnam during the peak of the war in a ail of 1969 and in addition to raising its Manpower for the war Russia has also radically transformed its entire economy into a wartime economy relentlessly refocusing most of its entire economic output on the war effort now for the first time in its modern history Russia's new updated military budget for 2024 has soared upwards to a whopping 7.1% of the nation's total GDP coming out to roughly 12.8 trillion Russian rubles or approximately 140 billion US doar in nominal terms this places military spending at roughly 35% of the entire Russian government's budget now and this massive new annual military spending has been signed into Russian law to last at least through 2024 2025 and 2026 this is a huge 29% increase in Russian military spending from the year before in 2023 and it shows that Russia is deadly serious about shifting its economy to a wartime footing and pursuing all of its military objectives in Ukraine to The Bitter End in purely nominal terms the Russians are now spending nearly as much on their military as Germany France and Italy all are combined but adjusted to purchasing power parody Or PPP terms the gap between Russian and European military spending is vastly closer together this year with the Russians spending approximately $72.08 billion on theirs placing Russian and European NATO defense spending on about an equivalent scale for 24 in PPP terms as a result Russia's military production levels are soaring according to the Royal United Services Institute the Russians are now on track to produce about 1,500 tanks for their army this year alone about half of the total number they're estimated to have lost in Ukraine since the invasion began and more tanks than are within the Armed Forces of the UK France Germany Italy Spain Portugal the Netherlands Denmark Norway and Sweden all Comin according to the Estonian Ministry of Defense Russia is currently projected to produce roughly 4.2 million ion rounds of artillery in 2024 alone and is also producing about a 100 longrange missiles every month on the 11th of March CNN reported that the Russians were on track to produce three times more artillery Munitions in 2024 than the United States and European NATO allies combined and in addition to rapidly ramping up their own domestic production of Munitions the Russians are believed to have imported millions of additional rounds of artillery from North Korea and thousands of explosive kamakazi drones from Iran with hundreds more being produced every month which is how according to the Estonian Military Intelligence the Russians have begun to outfire the ukrainians in artillery along the front line by a ratio of 7 to one Ukraine is currently struggling with acute shortages of both ammunition and Manpower a fact represented by the average age of the Ukrainian soldier on the front line being 43 years old right now historically the Ukrainian government is only drafted men for the war between the ages of 27 at a minimum and 60 at the oldest in an attempt to conserve their smaller younger generation as much as possible for the sake of the country's future and economy but as a result Ukraine's draftable Manpower pool has been made artificially smaller by effectively exempting men between 18 and 26 from conscription and according to the AP there's only around 300,000 heavily experienced but tired Ukrainian soldiers currently Manning the front lines up against potentially twice as many Russian soldiers who have significantly more ammunition available to fire in order to prepare for a widely expected renewed Russian offensive on the front lines in the summer the ukrainians recently amended their conscription law to lower the draft age for men from 27 down to 25 which will hypothetically open up a pool of an additional 400,000 new 25 and 26y old men for the war who can be conscripted from but as Ukraine struggles to acquire more ammunition and Manpower and as Russia surges their own Munitions and Manpower onto the front line to potentially overwhelm them there is increasingly an amount of concern building that the summer of 2024 could end up becoming decisive and potentially disastrous for the ukrainians Putin and Russia's ultimate objectives in Ukraine and strategies to pursue those objectives remain uncertain in the dense fog of War nobody in the world least of all myself really knows what's going to happen next in Ukraine and anything could end up potentially happening but as it stands now it seems fairly clear that Russia's priorities have changed very little since the opening days of the invasion more than 2 years ago as a minimum goal the Russians will almost certainly seek to expand their territorial control in Ukraine over all four of the Ukrainian provinces that they unilaterally declared to Annex into Russia back in 2020 2 encompassing the entirety of the luhansk Donetsk zapia and hiran provinces Putin signed into Russian law recognizing all of these provinces as core integral territories of the Russian Federation meaning that according to Russian law and the Russian perspective as baseless as it seems to everyone else the continued Ukrainian presence in these provinces is perversely viewed as a hostile occupation of Russia and so the Russians will continue to try and drive them out as much as possible and force the ukrainians into recognizing their total loss in addition to demanding that the ukrainians recognize the session of these four provinces the Russians will also want Ukraine to accept the previous laws of Crimea and sasto as well while it also even further appears that Russia will likely try and demand through military force or threats the additional annexations of the Ukrainian cities of harke and Odessa Russian missile and drone attacks on both have sharply escalated in 2024 while Putin himself has frequently claimed the each to be supposedly rightfully Russian cities and labeled them both as priority War aims as of the most recent 2001 census in Ukraine both those cities had majority of Russians speaking populations and significant ethnic Russian minorities that Putin's Russia now appears bent on directly incorporating it therefore follows that in order to secure control over harke and Odessa Ukraine's second and third largest cities no less the Russians will probably also try and demand the further annexations of the har molave and Odessa provinces as a condition for peace as well and all of them will probably see increased Russian military assaults eventually it also stands to reason that if Russian advances on the battlefield are particularly successful they will also likely attempt to demand the annexation of parts or all of the Deno Petros Province as well the final province of eastern Ukraine that has a large russian-speaking and ethnic Russian minority that Putin would likely attempt a claim as being supposedly rightfully Russian territory assuming that Putin is successful in is apparently maximalist objective of directly conquering occupying and annexing the eastern half of Ukraine with large russian-speaking minorities Russia's likely demands for whatever remains of the landlocked Ukrainian rump state will be no less neutering the The Wall Street Journal recently released an analysis of a 2022 proposed peace agreement that the Russians came up to enforce on Ukraine 2 years earlier that when nowhere but its main points will likely still come up in the future if Russia manages to force a peace on its own terms they will likely demand now as they did 2 years ago that whatever remains of Ukraine will be a permanently neutral State when it comes to military alliances meaning that it will never be allowed to join NATO the current administration of vomir zalinsky would almost certainly be removed and all new governments in Kev would have to be expressly approved by the Kremlin essentially turning the remnant of Ukraine into another Bellis style puppet or client State highly dependent on Moscow for support the original 2022 Russian proposed peace offer would cap Ukraine's post-war numbers of troops to only 85,000 while further limiting their tanks to just 342 and their artillery pieces to just 519 while outright Banning Ukraine from importing any foreign-made weapons from abroad the only notable concession that Russia has appeared willing to give the remnant of postwar Ukraine is allowing them to join the European Union but never ever NATO none of this is at all a guarantee of what will end up happening in Ukraine but it is what Russia likely wants to ultimately accomplish and with the momentum of the war currently on Russia's side it is likely what the Kremlin is attempting to push for with their massive new military budget approved through 2026 the economy shifted to wartime and a potential new round of mobilization coming it appears that the Kremlin is setting a Target date for victory in this war with most or all of these objectives accomplished in Ukraine by the end of 2026 in about 2 and 1/2 years from now over these next 2 and 1/2 years the Russians will continue trying to grind the ukrainians down at a brutal demoralizing and costly War of Attrition in the hope that they will either steadily Advance their own front lines militarily or that the Ukrainian government will eventually concede for peace or get overthrown when the costs of the war become too great to bear at the same time Russia special services will continue attempting to erode support for Ukraine in the west so that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue struggling with sources of ammunition and Equipment as the Russians dumb more and more of their own ammunition and Equipment onto their own side and of course even if this kind of a harsh piece was forced upon Ukraine by 2026 there is no guarantee that Russia would not seek to invade or further incorporate the rest of Ukraine into the Russian state in the future at a later time after it is rearmed and recovered there is also no guarantee that Putin or Russia's territorial Ambitions would suddenly just end with the total subjugation of Ukraine just like how they didn't stop with a previous seizure of Crimea in 2014 or with the previous invasion of Georgia in 2008 or with the previous subjugation of chia in 1999 Vladimir Putin now rather infamously said back in 2005 that the collapse of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century at the time when he said it there were very few people who actually believed that he would ever do anything about it but here we are nearly 20 years later with Putin still in power in the Kremlin and with his regime spearheading Russia's fourth war in the the former Soviet world since he took over control there is a clear established pattern that Putin's Ambitions in the former Soviet world will likely not end even if Ukraine is completely subdued in its entirety and with a Russian economy now fully shifted to a wartime economy the Russians will be economically incentivized to continue the wars after Ukraine too if Russia were to eventually manage taking over full control of the hon MV and Odessa provinces in Ukraine's South it would establish a continuous land bridge from the Russian Mainland to transnistria a deeply pro-russian separatist region of mova that controls a narrow strip of land between the Ukraine border and the denester river that has a population of around 365,000 people about 30% of whom are ethnically Russian transnistria has requested direct annexation into Russia on multiple occasions since it secured its deao independence through force and with the help of Russian troops that killed hundreds of people back in 1992 around 1,500 Russian soldiers remain in transnistria to this day as occupiers or peacekeepers depending on your point of view and the Russians even went so far as to set up polling stations in transnistria in March of 2024 that allowed transnistrian residents to vote in the Russian presidential election for Putin which sparked outrage in mova as mdova is neither a member state of the EU or NATO and was itself a former Soviet Republic for decades during the 20th century mova is a highly vulnerable next Target for Russia in the event the Ukraine collapses the country has a very small population of only about two and half million people that is majority Romanian and a tiny standing army of only 6,500 Personnel Russia could end up repeating the same Playbook that they've done previously in both Ukraine and Georgia by recognizing the independence of transnistria and then sending in the army with the excuse of protecting the ethnic Russians in transnistria that ends up with a complete Russian occupation of the whole of mdova again like back during the Soviet era and in the process the Kremlin will have restored its Geographic Frontier to the Carpathian Mountain range in the south securing its Southern flank against NATO who it perceives to be hostile moldova's current president is so alarmed by this possibility that she is openly stated that the ukrainians are not just fighting for the future of Ukraine but for the future of mdova as well anticipating the risk the United States has upped their defense assistance to mdova by more than 10 fold from pre- Ukraine war levels from only $3 million a year in 2022 to more than $30 million a year in 2024 the US and France have also invested hundreds of millions of dollars into mova since the Ukraine Invasion began to shift the country's energy Connection Westward away from Russia to be more integrated with the EU instead well France took things a step even further in March of 2024 when they signed a separate defense cooperation agreement with mova which will establish a French defense mission in the movan capital this summer and provides the framework for French military training of the maldovan Armed Forces and intelligence sharing related to Russia France's president Emanuel macron has even recently threatened to send French troops themselves to Ukraine in the event that the Russians appear to be imminently about to take over major Ukrainian cities again like Kev or Odessa and Russia's probable ultimate Ambitions extend beyond Georgia Ukraine transnistria and mdova as well in early 2023 a 17-page internal strategy paper related to Bellis allegedly produced by Putin's presidential Administration was leaked by an international team of journalists the paper details Russia's various strategies to essentially absorb and fully integrate Bellis into a so-called Union state of Russia and Bellis by no later than 2030 at the end of Putin's fifth term in office the paper details out the increasing russification of Belarusian society which has long been underway for decades now under the dictatorial regime of Alexander lucashenko who has continually remained in power in Bellis for 30 years now ever since 1994 in the decade between 2009 and 2019 the most commonly spoken language by District in bis dramatically shifted from Belarusian to Russian while Russian has emerged as the country's most dominantly spoken language of over Belarusian with fewer than 20% of belarusians today citing the Belarusian language as their primary language spoken at home while both Russian and Belarusian remain as the co-official languages of the bellerian state about 95% of the bellerian government operates in Russian today while the Belarusian language is almost totally absent in the state's education and media since the Russians helped to crush anti-regime protests that erupted in bellus in 2020 lcas shenk's regime there has found itself heavily isolated and increasingly dependent on Russia for its very survival Bellis already effectively functions as a Kremlin satellite state with Russian military bases on their territory and since 2022 they've allowed the Russians to move their troops through the country to attack Ukraine from the north and they've allowed the Russians to station tactical nuclear weapons in their territory as well and as of early 2024 the Russians are believed to have massed around 40,000 of their own troops in bellus with an unclear purpose they could be there just to create a threat to Ukraine that forces Kev to keep troops deployed in the north and a way from the actual front line in the East they could also be building up to launch raids into Northern Ukraine or they could even be building up to launch another major offensive on the Ukrainian Capital Kiev just like they did in the opening days of the invasion in February of 2022 if Russia is successful with effectively annexing belus by 2030 like the paper leaked in 2023 suggests they are trying for then the Russians will effectively incorporate the entire Belarusian military and all of its equipment and Munitions into their own Russia's military presence in bellus will be dramatically expanded the bellarus intelligence service still called the KGB will be fully incorporated into Russia's FSB intelligence Network and Moscow will fully unlock Beller Us's military industrial and Manpower potential for the Russian war machine there is therefore a potential scenario emerging that by sometime later in the 2020s the Russians will have occupied and directly annexed much of eastern Ukraine and turned the rest into a quisling style puppet state occupied and effectively annexed transnistria and potentially mdova and effectively absorbed bellus if this all comes to pass pass then whatever remains of Ukraine will be almost encircled by Russian control territory in bellus and mdova and the amount of people directly under the control of the Kremlin will increase substantially more than what it's estimated to be today Russia's population is presently estimated to be 144 million people without Crimea and about 147 million people when including Crimea even though it's estimated that about 1 million Russians have fled the country since the invasion of Ukraine began and US sources estimate that roughly 120,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in action in Ukraine the Russians have also already absorbed millions of additional people from their conquered territories in Ukraine including the estimated transfer of at least 700,000 Ukrainian children back to Russia if the Russians gain more of their desired territories in Ukraine in addition to incorporating mova and bellus it's not inconceivable that Russia could emerge from this conflict in the later 2020s with a deao population of between 160 and 170 million people under their control which is not not very different from the population of the Soviet Union at the beginning of World War II in January of 1940 if it emerges like this this is a geopolitical entity that should not be underestimated by the West if Russia emerges victorious in Ukraine by 2026 it will come out of it with by far the most battle hardened and combat experienced Army in the 21st century world with a significantly increased pool of Manpower resources better Geographic positioning and a wartime economy that may not wind back down after afterwards and with Ukraine mdova bellaris Georgia and chia all potentially secured by this point will Putin's Ambitions end or will their victory in the failure of the West to stop them encourage the Kremlin eyes to turn to the remaining lost fragments of the old Soviet Union and what they refer to as the Russian World the millions of ethnic Russians remaining in Central Asian States like Kazakhstan usbekistan kiristan and Turkmenistan or more ominously the roughly 900,000 ethnic Russians who continue to live in the three Baltic states of Estonia lvia and Lithuania all three of these Baltic states have a complicated and troubled history with their larger neighbor all three emerged as independent republics after the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917 but then two decades later in 1940 during the second world war the Soviet Union invaded and conquered all three of them as a part of the molotov rimon drop pact signed with Nazi Germany each was then forcefully Incorporated at gunpoint into becoming a Soviet Republic before the Nazis then invaded and conquered the region themselves the following year in 1941 the Germans then transformed the occupied Baltic States into their so-called reiches Kamari at toand before the red Army's major counter offensive 3 years later in 1944 took them all back over again for the Soviets the Soviets would then forcefully reincorporate the Baltic states back into Soviet republics and went on to continue occupying them for the next half a century until the collapse of the Soviet Union itself in 1991 during that half a century that the three Baltic states were occupied and controlled by the Soviet Union they were effectively colonized and their demographics were severely altered the period of Soviet rule included Mass executions deportations and repression of the Native Baltic populations between 1940 and 1941 and 1944 to 1991 its estimated that roughly 605,000 residents of the Baltic states were either killed or deported by the Soviets much of their property and belongings were seized and handed over to new Soviet colonists as Moscow pursued a policy of russification in each of them that included the suppression of the Native Baltic languages and the promotion of Russian in their place the Estonian city of narva in particular was almost completely destroyed by the fighting of the second world war and after it came under the reoccupation of the Soviets in 1944 nara's original residents were all expelled and not allowed to return while colonists from the rest of Soviet Russia were brought in and resettled to the city as it was rebuilt before the war nara's population was roughly 65% Estonian as recorded by the 19 19 34 census in the country but in the latter half of the 20th century the city's demographics were completely changed to become overwhelmingly non-estonian as a result today in 2024 narva is an overwhelmingly russian-speaking City in Estonia it is the third largest city in Estonia overall roughly 96% of the City's population are native Russian speakers and a whopping 88% of the City's population are ethnically Russian too it's also pretty much immediately across the border from Russia copper too but even after their independence from the Soviets finally became a reality in 1991 they were all left over with very large Russian minority groups that lingered on afterwards the result of the past half a century of Soviet Rule and Russian colonization and settlement Estonia and laia have the largest remaining Russian communities today with ethnic Russians representing roughly a quarter of the total populations in each of them with large Russian demographics in cities like narva and dog of pills near to the Russian and Belarusian borders one of Russia's primary Arguments for invading Ukraine in 2014 and again in 2022 was based on the claim that the ethnic Russian minority in Ukraine was being supposedly persecuted by the Ukrainian government and so it stands to reason that the same argument could be made at a later time for the large Russian minorities and lvia and Estonia as well Putin himself warned as much in January of 2024 when he said during a meeting the Latvia's treatment of their ethnic Russian minority constituted a national security threat to Russia itself there's therefore a building fear rise that in the not too distant future if Ukraine Falls the Russians could come storming into the Baltic states next as they did before in 1940 unlike all of Putin's Invasion targets so far though all three of the Baltic states are members of both NATO and the European Union and so a Russian military attack on them could trigger a massive military retaliation from the rest of Europe and the United States but there is also the chance that it might not it's well known that the NATO military Alliance Charter includes a clause known as Article 5 which enables any any NATO member State who is attacked to call on the rest of the alliance to defend them but it is important to understand the very specific wording of article 5 which reads verbatim the parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that if such an armed attack occurs each of them an exercise of the right of individual or Collective self-defense recognized by article 51 of the charter of the United Nations will assist the party or party so attacked by taking forth with individually and concert with the other parties such action as it deems necessary including the use of Armed Force to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area with the very important phrase there being such action as it deems necessary which means that effectively if one of the NATO States felt that sending a few first aid kits or helmets to the attacked country met the criteria for Action that it deemed necessary then that's all that's technically required of them legally all of the members of NATO could choose to respond as rapidly or as slowly as decisively or as cautiously as they each deem necessary essentially meaning that some would respond very strongly While others might hardly respond at all and if Russia decided to test the solidarity of NATO in Article 5 with an attack on the Baltic states it wouldn't have to be an allout fullscale invasion of them at least not at first Russia could one day test Article 5 by conducting a very limited Invasion into Estonia perhaps by stepping just over the border and seizing the russian-speaking city of narva or turning it into a deao Independence separatist State repeating their previous limited invasions to prop up separatist entities into Ukraine Georgia and mova Russian propaganda would flood the West with disinformation asserting that narva like Crimea and other parts of Ukraine should rightfully belong to Russia on the basis of the city being predominantly inhabited by ethnic Russians if Estonia were to then trigger NATO's Article 5 over the loss of narva how many other countries in NATO would really be willing to risk a major war with Russia over the fate of a russian-speaking city like narva if most NATO countries didn't respond forcefully enough to The Limited attack then what would happen to NATO's credibility if NATO's credibility as a defense Alliance was eroded then would Russia grow further embolden to seize more of the Baltic states later as they've done with Crimea and then more of Ukraine if the Russians opted to initiate a full scale invasion of the Baltic states instead before or after seizing narva they might be able to overrun all three countries within only hours or days the Baltic states are not very big and they're almost completely surrounded by Russian and Belarusian territory and the Baltic Sea Russian forces could invade them by land from three different directions and there's nowhere really for Baltic base troops to retreat towards in the opening weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 the Russians managed to militarily occupy roughly 54,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory which is about 80% of the same area as the three Baltic states combined if the Russians decided to eventually invade the Baltic states they would rapidly Advance towards major ethnic Russian majority cities like narva in Estonia and dog of pills in laia while the prim Ary objective of the Russian Baltic Fleet based in kenrad would be to quickly secure control over the sparsely populated Estonian island of hia there were only 9,000 people who live on this island so if the Russians were able to seize control over it quickly they could set up anti- access area denial or A2 D2 weapon systems on the island like anti-air and anti- ship missiles and transform it into a military Outpost between their separated territories of St Petersburg and kenrad with the intent of keeping their own Maritime supply lines open and denying NATO the ability to intervene with air or Naval assets from Finland Sweden or Poland meanwhile Russian ground troops would attempt to rapidly advance from kenr and bellus in a Piner attack to seize control over the highly strategic sui Gap the roughly 100 km wide choke point between kenrad and Bellis that is the only geographically available land connection between the Baltic states and Poland and therefore between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO in the EU if the sui Gap was seized quickly by the Russians in addition to strategic islands like hauma then the Russians would effectively ins Circle the Baltic states and cut them off from being easily resupplied or reinforced from the rest of NATO in 2016 the Rand Corporation an American thing tank ran several simulations that concluded with the availability of NATO troops in the area at the time a surprise Russian offensive on the Baltic states could see Russian tanks rolling through the streets of the Estonian and Latvian capitals within only 36 to 60 hours after the invasion began while lithuania's capital is only a mere 30 km away from the border with Bellas if they were successful with taking over the B btic States this rapidly then the Russians would attempt to present NATO with a situation known as a fatom plea the Russian occupation of the Baltic states would already be accomplished and there would be no reversing this fact unless NATO decided to go to war with Russia over the issue which would have the potential to escalate into a nuclear confrontation and then would come the decision for the people living in NATO countries would they be willing to go to war and potentially die over the status of the Baltic states or would they more or less accept the new reality if Article 5 of n wasn't resoundingly heeded by many of NATO's members then the European Union contains a separate Mutual defense Clause within its own treaty on the European Union that is arguably even more strongly worded than NATO's Mutual defense Clause is article 42.7 of the treaty on the European Union reads verbatim if a member state is the victim of armed aggression on its territory the other member states shall have towards it an obligation of Aid and assistance by all the means in their power that phrase by all the means in their power is substantially more strongly worded than NATO's Article 5 that only reads by such action as it deems necessary all three Baltic states are also members of the EU and so in theory a Russian attack on them would also trigger the eu's built-in Mutual defense pact as well but the problem is that the EU is a significantly less formidable military power than NATO is in comparison to Nato the EU excludes the United States Canada Iceland Norway turkey North Macedonia Albania Montenegro and since brexit the United Kingdom as well as a result the defense budget of all EU member states is a whopping 80% less than the defense budget of all NATO member states largely because the EU excludes the United States Canada United Kingdom and turkey on its own the EU will be significantly less capable of responding to a Russian attack on a member State the NATO will be and while a Russian attack on the Baltic states is almost certainly nowhere near imminent there is a substantial amount of growing alarm that if Russia emerges victorious in Ukraine It could only become a matter of time how much time it might be is open to a significant degree of speculation in January of 2024 Germany's defense minister Boris Pistorius warned that Europe could face a direct war with Russia within 5 to8 years after the conclusion of the war in Ukraine if it ends on moscow's terms the next month in February Denmark's defense minister gave an even more dire warning claiming that Russia could test Article 5 in NATO solidarity with an attack on a member state within three to 5 Years From the present General Sir Patrick Sanders the chief of staff of the British army warned in January AR of 2024 that Britains and Europeans today may be a part of the pre-war generation and that Britain must be prepared for a potential war with Russia in the future the outgoing chief of the Estonian Military Intelligence Agency recently estimated that the Russians could be prepared for a war with NATO within only 4 years after wrapping up their current war in Ukraine while Poland's National Security Agency is even more aggressively estimated that Russia could attack a NATO member state within only 3 years after the conclusion of the war in Ukraine these various estimates from senior Europe European military and intelligence agency suggest that a potential Russian assault on the Baltic states limited or full scale could take place within the next 3 to8 years from today or in other words sometime between 2027 and 2032 during Putin's current or next term in office a timeline that roughly lines up with Russia's own apparent goals of wrapping up the war in Ukraine by 2026 and annexing bellus by 2030 and which also roughly lines up with the expected window of opportunity that China will have to launch their own invasion of W projected to be between 2027 when the people's Liberation Army completes its modernization reforms and 2032 when the 22nd National Congress of the Chinese Communist party will be held and xiin ping will be approaching 80 years old with these largely aligned timeline of opportunities it's not inconceivable that if Russia emerges victorious in Ukraine the Russians and Chinese could later choose to coordinate simultaneous invasions of the Baltic states and Taiwan to divide nato in the West's response and give them each the best possible odds of success and worst of all from Europe's perspective they may have to face this nightmare scenario of defending the sovereignty of the Baltic states without the help of America Donald Trump could very well become reelected as the next president of the United States in the upcoming election this November Trump has long been critical of NATO as an organization and of America's continued membership in the alliance he rattled European NATO members in February of 2024 when during a campaign rally he openly stated that he would encourage the Russians to do quote whatever the hell they want to any European NATO member that he deemed to be not spending enough on defense back in 2006 NATO adopted a non-binding guideline that member states of the allian should aim to spend at least 2% of their national GDP on defense per year but for years hardly any countries in NATO actually followed that guideline when the Russians invaded Crimea in 2014 only three members of NATO met the theoretical 2% of GDP on defense minimum military spending in NATO gradually increased from there and then accelerated rapidly after the fullscale Russian invasion of Ukraine 2022 by the summer of 2023 11 members of NATO had increased their defense spending to more than 2% of GDP with a notable difference in military spending between European countries closer to Russia than those further away now in 2024 it appears that potentially 20 of NATO's 32 total members will hit the theoretical 2% of GDP on defense minimum but the Decades of Europe's under spending on defense since the end of the Cold War has left a huge gap in European nations military stockpiles had the European NATO countries followed through with a 2% of GDP defense budget continually since 1991 they'd have an estimated $600 billion worth of additional weapons Munitions and Hardware available today in stock piles that they don't so how would Trump assuming he returns to the American presidency in 2025 Define a European NATO State not spending enough on defense would he Define even NATO States currently spending 2% of GDP on defense as still being delinquent anyway because they had spent decades before 2014 in 2022 under spending on defense the US Congress quietly passed in a law as a part of the 2024 us defense budget a restriction on any US president from being able to unilaterally withdraw the United States from NATO without the approval of the US Senate or an act of Congress first this was widely viewed as a means of trump proofing Washington's commitment to Nato but many also argue that Trump could be even more dangerous to Nato while keeping America within the alliance because he could undermine NATO from within the alliance requires unanimous consent of all its members for just about any significant decision which Trump could just refuse to give if Estonia or laia were attacked he could simply choose to respond with only a token gesture like first aid kits or helmets rather than actual American boots on the ground and with Trump potentially back in charge in Washington again from 2025 through 2029 it roughly lines up with the various European Defense ministers warnings of a Russian timeline for an assault on the Baltic states and a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and if more European countries nationalist parties rise to power that prioritize their own national interests first over Europe's Collective interests then even more NATO States May essentially refuse to answer an article 5 call if Trump's America declines to intervene then Victor orban's Hungary will almost certainly decline to intervene as well while the incoming nationalist president of Slovakia has already openly stated as recently as April of 2024 that he would oppose sending the Slovak Armed Forces to assist an attacked NATO member State who triggered Article 5 large percentages of the populations in many European countries like Hungary Greece Italy Romania and Austria are already of the opinion that Ukraine should be pressured into suing for peace with Russia and if Trump wins the US election in November Putin could likely count on invading the Baltic states after the war in Ukraine is wrapped up without any significant interventions coming from America Hungary and Slovakia at a minimum and likely from many others as well so how is Europe preparing to deal with the prospect of a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic states in the future the baltic's the themselves are taking the threat extremely seriously with the memory of the half a century of Soviet occupation in the 20th century still fresh in their minds Estonia and Lithuania have continually maintained a system of military conscription ever since their 1991 Independence while laia has recently confirmed that they'll be reintroducing their own conscription system in January of 2024 the defense Ministers of Estonia Lavia and Lithuania all jointly announced that their countries would begin the construction of the so-called Baltic defense line across the entire length of their borders with Russia and Bas Estonia has already confirmed that they'll build 600 fortified bunkers along the entire length of their border with Russia while laia and Lithuania are expected to construct thousands of additional bunkers along the entire length of their own borders the bunkers On the Border will be complemented by fortified trenches Dragon's Teeth anti-tank obstacles and anti-tank mines initially latia even publicly considered laying anti-personnel landmines across the entire length of their border with Russia and Bellis 2 though this idea appears to have been sheld for now out of concern for the future of civilians in the Border area the Baltic defense line isn't meant to stop a Russian invasion dead in its tracks like the 21st century version of the magino line instead it is being designed to slow a potential Russian invasion of the Baltic states down just enough to buy enough time for the Western allies to hopefully arrive and stop them from getting overrun completely Estonia lvia and Lithuania have all pledged to increase their military spending to at least 3% of their GDP 50% higher than the theoretical minimum required by NATO while their neighbor Poland is spending even more aggressively Poland is already up their own defense spending to about 4% of their own GDP making Poland the highest military spender in all of NATO based on percentage of GDP Poland's defense minister has openly stated that war Saw's goal is to build out nothing less than the largest conventional Ground Force in Europe they plan to double their military size to 300,000 personnel and are purchasing tens of billions of dollars worth of hardware and Munitions from the United States and South Korea including 350 M1 Abrams main battle tanks 96 Apache helicopters dozens of haar's Rocket artillery systems 700 K9 artillery pieces from South Korea and another 1,000 South Korean Panther tanks Poland will undoubtedly be determined to use this new military might to keep the suuki Gap choke point open at all costs in the event that the Russians end up invading the Baltic states as it'll be Poland's primary responsibility to funnel NATO or EU reinforcements by land to the military front line meanwhile Sweden and finland's entries into NATO have been a true GameChanger because their large air forces and navy so nearby to the Baltic theater of operations will be tasked with securing air and Naval superiority Sweden's control of the island of gutland will be particularly important as it could become transformed into essentially an Unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Baltic right off the shore of ltia they will battle against the Russian Baltic Fleet headquartered in kenrad and try to sever the maritime connection between kenrad and St Petersburg while the Finish and Swedish Air Forces including 64 cuttingedge F-35 fighters in The Finnish Air Force will attempt to secure Air Supremacy over the Baltic states themselves Russia will attempt to stop them by concentrating their anti- access area denial capabilities within kaliningrad and along their borders with the Baltic states while they will also try and set up more on the sparsely inhabited Estonian island of hauma in the opening hours of the conflict breaking out which the Swedish and finish Air Forces and navies will do everything in their power to prevent from happening Germany has even further announced their own plans to deploy a fully combat ready Brigade to Lithuania by no later than 2027 the first time that the German Army will be permanently deployed to Lithuania since the second world war and a force that will all but guarantee the Germans commitment to defense of the Baltic states as well at the same time even though 20 out of NATO's 32 member states are expected to finally reach the 2% of GDP on defense spending Target this year in 2024 the Baltic states and many other analysts have insisted that in order to make up for the Decades of previous unders spending on defense in Europe and the massive rearming currently going on in Russia and to hedge against a potential us withdrawal from NATO if Trump is reelected European NATO States should really be shooting to up their defense spending to at least 3% of their GDP instead for the foreseeable future at least through 2030 European NATO states are essentially being faced with a difficult to answer dilemma they can choose between increasing their defense spending for years in an attempt to deter the Russians from ever invading the Baltic states and in an attempt to keep the United States actually committed to continue protecting them which will necessitate higher taxes higher deficits Andor austerity measures like cuts on social welfare spending or they could not do any of that and risk The increased possibility of Russian tanks rolling through the streets of talene Ria and vilnus again by the end of the decade and nuclear deterrence will likely not be sufficient enough to deter the Russians on its own either especially not if Trump effectively pulls the United States out of NATO and withdraws the American nuclear umbrella from Europe ER France and the UK each have their own independent nuclear weapons arsenals but would they actually threaten to use them over an invasion of the Baltic states is the fate of the Baltic states enough of a core strategic interest to Paris and London to risk civilizational ending nuclear arm a getting over the old Cold War logic of mutually assured destruction would once again apply here France initially acquired their own nuclear weapons back in the 1960s out of their own calculus that the United States wouldn't ever risk New York for Paris as in the Americans wouldn't ever risk nuclear war over the fate of France Paris reasoned that they needed their own nuclear weapons Arsenal separate from the Americans to guarantee their own strategic autonomy but the same logic would apply in Reverse to a Russian attack on the Baltic states would France actually be willing to risk Paris for narva toen or Ria if French and British nuclear threats over the status of the baltics weren't considered credible Enough by Moscow and the continent's conventional military capabilities without the Americans hungarians slovaks and potentially more were considered by Moscow to be weak enough especially after a potential previous failure by the West to Halt the Russian subjugation of Ukraine and mova then European deterrence has a high probability of failure and so the continent needs to have a strong and capable conventional military force to actually respond with to deter any invasion of the Baltic States from ever happening in the first place in order to avoid this Grim scenario across the European continent in the later 2020s and early 2030s from resembling the 1930s a century ago the Europeans must do everything in their power today to ensure that the Russian war machine is stopped in Ukraine before the war has a chance to expand in the future if the Russian army emerges completely victorious in Ukraine then there is a high probability that by the end of the decade Russian troops will be advancing through the Baltic states next and the Europeans may be faced with a previously unimaginable decision going into a fullscale war with Russia that will ravage Europe or going down the path of appeasement that could lead to to the collapse of NATO and the European Union as credible institutions forever to date since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began more than 2 years ago mostly Western Nations have delivered more than $380 billion worth of financial aid to Ukraine with nearly $118 billion of that amount being direct military aid a massive amount of this Aid was heavily concentrated by the ukrainians in their major 2023 counter offensive an operation that was hoped to become a decisive turning point in the war that would see Ukrainian Force is driving across the Russian occupied territory in the south of the country to reach the Sea of aav and split the Russian occupation of Ukraine into two separate tougher to defend halves hundreds of thousands of soldiers on both sides took part in the operation from June of 2023 to the end of the year and one of the largest military operations in Europe ever seen since the second world war but after months of brutal and heavy fighting the ukrainians only managed to recapture about 370 Square km of their territory in the face of significantly tougher than respected Russian defenses falling very short of the initial goal of driving all the way towards the Sea of aav the next part of this video that covers how the Ukrainian 2023 counter offensive went why It ultimately failed and what implications it's having for Ukraine's war effort today in 2024 is all vital context to understanding where the war in Europe is currently headed but unfortunately due to the inherently violent controversial and very recent nature of discussing in detail the largest War seen in Europe since World War two that has already claimed hundreds of thousands of human lives on both sides condemned to fighting it the next part of this video that would cover all of it would almost certainly cause the rest of the video before it to become demonetized and age restricted which ultimately would mean that YouTube's algorithm would have never promoted any of this video to you and you would probably never have seen any of it but thankfully I was still able to produce the next part of this video anyway because of the power of this video sponsor nebula where you can go and watch the next 40-minute part covering everything you need to know about how Ukraine's counter offensive in 2023 went and what factors made it all end up going so wrong and this is also just one of more than several dozen exclusive fulllength real life lore videos that you can only find on nebula and my overall modern conflict series there that can all only be found over there because of all of their darker more controversial subject material there's other episodes you can go and watch right now like these five previous episodes covering the greater scope and timeline of the ongoing war in Ukraine from 2014 to the present these episodes covering previous Russian Wars and interventions f Cheta Georgia and Syria are these episodes covering the recent International war against Isis deeper dives into the Civil Wars waged in Yemen Libya Syria Yugoslavia and dozens 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