How the US & China Are Preparing to Fight Total War

the United States and Taiwan have always maintained a complicated relationship taiwan's official name is the Republic of China or Roc the government that was initially established all the way back in 1912 across mainland China following the collapse of the Imperial Ching Dynasty The ROC was subsequently one of America's top allies during the second world war fighting against the Japanese in the asia-pacific theater but following the conclusion of that war the Chinese nationalist government of The Roc almost immediately resumed its long-standing civil war against the Chinese communists by 1949 the Communists had emerged victorious in the mainland of China and proclaimed the People's Republic of China or the PRC but the Nationalist government of The Roc continued to survive and fled from the mainland to Taiwan where they have remained at ever since both governments The Roc and the PRC alike never agreed on any kind of formal peace treaty and have remained officially at war with one another ever since with both sides continuing to officially claim on paper to be the sole legal government of all of China ever since meaning that the Chinese Civil War never really ended in any official capacity and has remained Frozen for the 74 years of history that have followed ever since 1949 the United States had been among the very first countries in the world to recognize the ROC government back when it was first established in mainland China in 1912 and after the retreat to Taiwan in 1949 the United States continued recognizing the ROC as the sole legitimate government of all of China for decades and in order to deter the larger communist PRC on the mainland from ever launching an invasion of Taiwan to defeat the ROC once and for all the US provided economic and military aid to the ROC government and the ROC welcomed thousands of US troops to Bases themselves on the island which peaked in the year 1958 when nearly 20,000 US troops were stationed on the island and it wasn't just American troops on Taiwan either the US Air Force activated an entire air division that they headquartered in Taiwan while the US even deployed some of their own nuclear weapons to the Island as well and in 1955 the US even signed a mutual defense pact with the ROC promising to intervene militarily on their behalf if the PRC ever launched a cross straight Invasion which all firmly deterred the PRC from ever considering such an invasion for decades in fact the ROC themselves in Taiwan still determined to reclaim the Chinese Mainland by force throughout the entire Cold War offered the US to invade the Chinese Mainland on multiple occasions throughout the 1950s and 60s the closest it ever came was in the early 1960s when in the midst of the great Chinese famine that killed tens of millions in the mainland in the prc's first nuclear weapons test in 1964 the Nationalist Roc government believed there was enough instability within the mainland to launch a cross straight invasion of their own and hope that millions of disillusioned Chinese mainlanders would end up taking their side the ROC mobilized hundreds of thousands of troops for this operation and requested direct us support support for the invasion of the Mainland on multiple occasions but constant American refusals being forcing them to reconsider and then in 1965 three Roc Naval vessels were intercepted by The People's Liberation Army Navy and sunk by Torpedoes killing nearly 300 Roc Naval personnel which convinced The ROC military that they were not as prepared for a cross straight invasion of the Mainland as they had previously thought all of the invasion plans were shelved and then in the 1970s the geopolitical situation for the ROC began to change dramatically by this point the PRC and the Soviet Union the world's two largest Communist States were having a massive falling out in 1969 the Chinese and the Soviets were literally on the brink of War over a series of Border disputes and clashes in the Soviet Far East in which hundreds of soldiers were killed and wounded and the United States began sensing an opportunity Washington strategically chose to begin switching its recognition of the Nationalist Roc on Taiwan as the sole legitimate government of China to the communist PRC on the mainland in order to gain the much larger PRC as a fellow Ally opposed to the Soviet Union and in order to do that it became necessary for the United States to begin winding down its obvious military support for the rooc on Taiwan by 1974 the US had removed all of their nuclear weapons from Taiwan and By 1979 the US had removed all of their troops and equipment from the island as well America's direct military presence on Taiwan was over and then for the first time ever in 1979 the US severed their official diplomatic recognition of The Roc as the government of China and formally recognized the PRC as the government of China instead this also meant that by 1980 the US had revoked its Mutual defense treaty with the ROC as well and Washington also stopped giving any economic and military aid to their government but unofficial connections between the Roc and the US remained deprived of free military aid the ROC switched to directly buying us weapons and AR arms instead and the US government was more than happy to continue selling to them from 1955 to 1980 the official US position on a PRC invasion of Taiwan was very clear the US would intervene militarily to stop it but after 1980 the official US position shifted to a policy of deliberate strategic ambiguity the US would never publicly commit to defending Taiwan from an invasion but would also never publicly commit to not defending Taiwan from an invasion either there has never another formal defense treaty between the Roc and the US ever since the revocation of the original one in 1980 and for decades throughout the 1980s 90s and 2000s this American policy of strategic ambiguity was still enough to deter the PRC from ever considering launching an invasion as the mere possibility of America's vastly Superior military still intervening was enough to make the relatively weaker people's Liberation Army reconsidered between 1995 and 1996 the PRC fired missiles into all of these zones to the north of Taiwan and carried out Military exercises in all of these zones of the Taiwan Strait and the US military responded by sending two separate aircraft carrier battle groups through the Taiwan Strait in a huge show of force to the PRC and a show of support to The Roc and the PRC chose to back down but as China's economy began dramatically expanding in scale since the 2000s so too has China's military and long dormant geopol iCal Ambitions in 1996 during that so-called third taiwwan straight crisis the prc's annual military spending was only a poultry $14.3 billion compared to the US military's annual budget of the time at around $288 billion 20 times the size of the prc's military budget at the time but fast forward from then to now only 27 years later and the prc's military budget has exploded by more than 20 times over to more than 20 $293 billion per year now which is currently equivalent to about a third of America's military spending as opposed to only about a 20th back in 1996 with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the final resolution of the sinor Russian land border dispute by treaty in 2003 the prc's entire Northern flank became secure and a period of relatively friendly relations with Russia has emerged ever since that freed up the PRC to largely focus on its long running unre resolved Maritime disputes with its neighbors instead their claims to the sen Kaku or Dau islands that are currently administered by Japan their unilateral claims to the entire South China Sea through their so-called n-h line that directly clashes with the UN recognized ezs of Vietnam the Philippines Malaysia and brunai and most pressingly of all their decades long demand for the rooc on Taiwan to finally surrender and submit to Beijing finishing the Chinese Civil War once and for all to better en Force these Maritime claims the PRC spent the later 2000s pouring its defense spending into rapidly building up its Naval Force the people's Liberation Army Navy or PL into a worldclass Navy by total number of surface ships it is since evolved into the largest Navy in the world with a fleet of approximately 350 surface ships and submarines the pl has designed and built three of their own modern aircraft carriers dozens of conventional and nuclear-powered submarines and constructed Naval and airfields across the islands of the South China Sea all while increasing their rhetoric that Taiwan must be reunified with the mainland Again by any means necessary and this is all why ever since the 2010s the United States has been following its pivot to Asia strategy which has involved winding down its military engagements in the Middle East and Afghanistan to refocus nearly everything to East Asia instead with the goal of deterring the PRC from ever launching this invasion of Taiwan that it appears to be preparing for even the long running policy of American strategic ambiguity in regards to a PRC invasion of Taiwan appears to be waning with Joe Biden the current president of the United States publicly stating at least four separate times now since he took office that the United States will directly intervene militarily should Beijing choose to invade and to back up his words just about every single thing that the US foreign policy establishment and Military are doing right now all around the world is explicitly being done to counter what the PRC is doing to prepare for its Invasion and just about everything that the PRC is doing is likewise designed to counter everything that the United States is doing the new cold war is here and both Beijing and Washington are preparing themselves to fight a cataclysmic War over the final fate of Taiwan and the future of China that could end up happening before the end of this decade it is a war that neither Beijing nor Washington truly want but it is a war that they are both preparing to fight nonetheless and this is how they are both preparing to do so for the US the greatest difficulty of all in confronting China militarily over Taiwan will be overcoming the tyranny of distance the distance from the US West Coast to the Taiwan straight is more than 6,000 mes across the vast and empty Pacific Ocean while the Chinese Mainland is fewer than 100 miles away from Taiwan the PRC will thus be able to focus its entire military machine to the singular goal of taking Taiwan with all of its bases and Logistics operating within the same theater whereas the US will simply not have this same Geographic advantage to compensate for that the United States has long adopted a geographic strategy to confront the PRC known as the first and second island chains the first island chain in theory begins within South Korea well not an island in a geographic sense South Korea still effectively functions as an island anyway because of its completely locked down border to the north with North Korea that nothing is ever allowed to travel across the US has permanently maintained a very large troop presence in South Korea ever since the Cold War war in order to deter the North Koreans from ever launching an invasion and to also conveniently have troops nearby to China and Taiwan currently the US military operates several bases across the country with about 22,000 total troops being present including two US Air Force bases at Osan and kunan on the South Korean West Coast on the Yellow Sea immediately opposite from China both of which have dozens of F-16 Fighters based at them that are easily within range of flash points in the Taiwan straight the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea moreover the South Korean government has recently made it clear that they will ask the us to bring back American nuclear weapons to the country as well something the United States pulled out from South Korea back in 1991 at the end of the last cold war that are likely going to be returning again soon extending from South Korea the next component of America's first island chain then runs through Japan where the US has maintained a very significant military presence ever since the end of World War II today in 2023 at any given time there are around 50,000 US troops deployed to Japan across dozens of different bases all across the country which now represents America's biggest overseas deployment of troops anywhere in the world the single largest concentration of US forces in Japan today however is not anywhere within the Japanese main islands but on the relatively small Japanese island of okanawa which is one of the most heavily militarized Islands anywhere in the world following World War II the us directly governed okanawa and all the other small islands in the ryuk island chain until they were returned to Japan in 1972 and okanawa in particular was built up as essentially a massive unsingable American aircraft carrier in the Pacific fewer than 400 m away to Taiwan still today approximately 25% of all the land in okanawa is covered by US military bases and there's around 26,000 US troops who were deployed to the island more than all of the US troops in South Korea and a bit more than half of all the US troops deployed to Japan okanawa is also the site of the US Air Force's largest and most active base in all of East Asia Caden air base which is also home to the US Air Force's 18th Wing the largest active combat Wing in the entire Air Force home to bombers helicopters reconnaissance craft and Fighters including brand new Cutting Edge f-35s that are steadily being moved into the base to replace the older f-15s as Caden is only about 500 mil away from the Taiwan straight the bases Fighters and bombers are easily within range of launching sores out to intercept advancing Chinese ships and planes during an invasion scenario and together with a us a forces other bases in South Korea they can easily cooperate together to battle for air superiority over the narrow Korea straight and ideally block China's warships from being able to break out and expand the war into the Sea of Japan moreover the US also maintains its only permanently forward deployed carrier strike group home ported at Yokosuka in Japan's Tokyo bay carrier strike group five the flagship of which is the USS Ronald Reagan a nimit class nuclear powerered super carrier that can carry 90 fixed wing and helicopter aircraft accompanying the Ronald Reagan and carrier strike gr five in Yokosuka are an additional three taond deroga class Cruisers and seven arlay bur class destroyers which make it the US Navy's largest carrier strike group currently in service and which is naturally very close to the ryuku island chain in Taiwan meanwhile the first island chain continues southwestwards from okanawa through the other small Japanese islands of mohima tarama ishaka takomi and yonaguni the latter of which is fewer than 70 miles away from Taiwan all of these islands are tiny and remote from the rest of Japan but they are becoming significantly more strategically valuable as all lies begin being focused on Taiwan including Japans in 2022 amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine and fearful of increasing Chinese and North Korean strategic moves in East Asia the Japanese government announced an unprecedented plan to remilitarize and expand its defense spending to levels never before seen since the second world war the Japanese defense Ministry has now requested a budget of nearly $53 billion for 202 24 which will put the Japanese self-defense forces on about a par with the defense spending of France in its 2022 National Security strategy report Japan clearly identified China as its quote greatest strategic challenge consequently Japan is investing its new upgraded defense spending into anti-ship and anti-air missiles radar systems and newer more advanced Fighters and ships and part of this remilitarization is being focused on building up the Japanese self-defense forces presence on the southern ryuku Islands extending from anwa down to yonaguni transforming them into tiny Japanese fortresses Japan first began militarizing these small Islands back in 2016 when they constructed a small outpost on the island of yonaguni with only 160 troops to conduct Coastal surveillance in 2019 the Japanese built two more bases in mohima and further north in amami Oshima both of which were armed with surfaced air and surfaced to ship missiles and now in 2023 the Japanese are deploying 570 troops to ishigaki along with more surface to Air and surface to ship missiles with even further discussions on extending even more surface to Air and surface to ship missiles and troops to yonaguni as well unlike Joe Biden's repeatedly firm statements on American support for taiwan's sovereignty no Japanese government officials have ever publicly stated that Tokyo would actually come to taiwan's Aid militarily as well nonetheless if the Chinese invasion of Taiwan does take place and the US decides to intervene it's easy to see how the Japanese could end up being dragged into it anyway espe if Chinese attacks were to happen against US military Targets in okanawa on Sovereign Japanese territory if Tokyo and Washington cooperated together to stop China's Invasion Fleet then their primary objective would be to lock down the ryq island chain and deny the pl from being able to break through out of the East China Sea and flank taiwan's critical East Coast from the north the east coast of Taiwan is of the utmost importance to the rooc and the Americans during this potential Invasion scenario because Taiwan is geographically divided into two separate halves by a massive chain of towering mountains that run through the Island's interior the western side of Taiwan is wider flatter and directly exposed across the Taiwan straight to the Chinese Mainland making it the most obvious Target for the bulk of the prc's invasion Fleet to Target the Eastern side of Taiwan Between the Ocean and the mountains is far narrower more surrounded by rough mountainous terrain separating it from the west and opposite of the Chinese Mainland meaning that the East will serve as the roc's primary rear base of operations during an invasion scenario and it will be the final line of defense where Allied troops deciding to militarily intervene can land at to help turn the tide of battle like the Americans and Japanese denying the PRC any ability to flank Taiwan from the North or the South and getting around to attacking this vital rear base in the east of Taiwan is thus of the utmost importance to American Military planners the northern component of the first island chain consisting of all of America's military assets in South Korea Japan and okanawa along with Japan's military Assets in the southern ryuku islands are thus designed as the northern Pinsir of taiwan's outside defense it restricts China's flexibility of movement during an invasion scenario from getting around to attack taiwan's East Coast from the north and it limits them into attacking in a more predictable straightforward frontal assault on taiwan's more exposed West Coast directly opposite of the Chinese Mainland but in theory that still leaves the possibility of the pl moving to the South instead and flanking taiwan's critical Eastern Shore anyway through the wider bosi channel that separates Taiwan from the northern Philippine island of Luzon but of course the US is preparing extensively for this situation as well with the next component of its first island chain strategy the southern Pinsir coming up from the Philippines the US and the Philippines similarly to the US and Japan have a long and complicated history the us directly sees the Philippines from Spain back in 1898 and transformed them into a colony that lasted for decades until after the end of world War II in 1946 but even after the Philippines were given Independence the US continued maintaining a huge military presence across the country for decades afterward throughout the Cold War just like they did in Japan and also in Taiwan itself for a while America's most significant military bases in the country that remained were an Air Force Base at Clark airbase and a naval base at Subic Bay which were literally the largest overseas US military facilities for a lot of the Cold War owing to their strategic location nearby to both Vietnam and to the Taiwan Strait dozens of us ships and submarines were present in Subic Bay for decades but then in 1991 two separate events happened the Soviet Union began disintegrating and with it the Cold War was wrapping up and in the same year Mount Pinatubo only 20 mi away from Subic Bay and only 9 miles away from Clark Airbase exploded in the second largest volcanic eruption of the entire 20th century with a force that was eight times greater than the Mount St Helen's eruption the eruption virtually destroyed Clark Airbase outright and buried Subic Bay beneath a foot of Ash which caused massively extensive damage before that eruption the US was negotiating with the government of the Philippines on renewing their lease to both Clark and Subic Bay for $850 million a year but after the eruption took out Clark and severely damaged Subic bag the US lowered the offer to only $250 million a year to renew the lease which the Philippines refused Clark was evacuated and returned to the Philippines in 1991 while Subic Bay was decommissioned and returned to the Philippines as well the following year in 1992 and with it the US military presence in the Philippines was ended for the very first time in nearly a century which further marked the first time since the 16th century the no foreign military forces were present in the Philippines at all for the next couple of decades there would continue to be no US military presence in the Philippines until geopolitical events in the 2010s ultimately ended up bringing them back again in the early 2010s China began enforcing its n-h line across the South South China Sea much more aggressively they began building military outposts on Tiny Islands within the exclusive economic zone claimed by the Philippines and laid claims to all of the spratley islands and the scarber sh that the Philippines also claimed Chinese warships began patrolling the area and sometimes firing water cannons at Philippine fishing vessels and ordering them to leave from the area the result is that the Philippines began feeling threatened by China's Maritime expansionism in the South China Sea right on their doorstep and so they chose to begin upgrading their security relationship with the United States again thus in 2014 the Obama Administration in the Philippines signed a 10-year-long pact known as the enhanced defense cooperation agreement which finally allowed the US to return a large scale military presence to the Philippines once again five Philippine military bases in the country were opened up to Joint control with the US Military and American troops began being stationed at them in 2016 after 24 years of absence US military bases were back in the Philippines again and more would follow shortly in 2023 the Philippines and the US announced the creation of four additional joint Philippine US military bases in the country under the original terms of the enhanced defense cooperation agreement which will bring the total number of American military bases in the Philippines to at least up to nine I say at least because there are even further discussions happening right now between the Philippines and the US to reactivate the old Cold War era US Naval Base at Subic Bay again well not officially happening yet as of the production of this video the Philippine Navy reoccupied hi a portion of the base near the end of 2022 while the remainder of the port was acquired by a us private Equity Firm if the US Navy returns to Subic Bay again it would function as an ideal deep waterer Harbor for some of America's Advanced nuclear submarine Fleet to station themselves at only a few hundred miles away from the bosi channel separating Taiwan from the northern Philippine island of Luzon but even if the US Navy doesn't do that just look at the map of the nine joint us Philippine military bases that have already been officially agreed upon on just since 2014 two out of the five previously agreed upon bases from 2014 were on the Northern island of Luzon well three out of the four recently announced bases in 2023 are also concentrated on the same Northern Island regardless if US Naval forces also return to Subic Bay or not this will already place a very high concentration of American troops within Luzon very close by to taiwan's Southern flank in March of 2022 it was revealed that American F-22 fighter jets were being deployed to the Philippines for the first time f-22s and any of these bases on Luzan will be capable of rapidly soring out during an invasion of Taiwan scenario to attack advancing Chinese warships and airplanes while us deployed High Mar's rocket artillery systems on the ground placed within the northern reaches of Luzon will have the range to strike everywhere within the bosi channel between Luzon and Taiwan the goal of which will be to obviously block the advancing PL from being able to break through the bosi channel and flank taiwan's vulnerable and critical eastern coast attacking through the Bashi channel will be a primary War aim of beijing's during The Invasion not only to flank taiwan's East Coast but to also attempt a capture of the extremely important Taiwanese Port City of kaung kaung is taiwan's largest port by far that all on its own accounts for 62% of all the Island's total cargo volume and the majority of its oil volume seizing kaung early on would deny the ROC Defenders the ability to import large L amounts of supplies fuel resources and reinforcements and it would enable the pla to use it instead to keep funneling in more of their own troops supplies and fuel to the island instead American High Mars placed in the northern reaches of Luzon would be nearly within range of striking the area around kaung to attack approaching PL Landing ships or to deliberately destroy the port facilities themselves if they were to fall into the pl's hands taken altogether the US military strategy to defend Taiwan during an invasion scenario involves this Northern Pinsir with their bases in South Korea Japan and Japan's Ryu island chain blocking any ability for the pl to advance from China's Shores into either the Sea of Japan or out into the Philippines Sea where they could be capable of flanking taiwan's critical Eastern Shore from the northern Direction while the southern Pinsir with the US military bases in the Philippines is designed to simultaneously deny the pla any ability to advance through the Bashi Channel and flank taiwan's eastern coast from the southern Direction the combined intent is to deny China the flexibility of movement during any Invasion scenario and to force them into only being able to choose a single option A predictable frontal amphibious assault on taiwan's well-defended and prepared Western beaches while the East Coast remains relatively stable and safe just long enough for outside help to be able to arrive and begin turning the tide but America's first island chain strategy doesn't end in the Philippines it continues even further down to another Island the smallest one in the entire strategy but likely the most critical one of all Singapore the US has got a joint Naval Base down here as well that they share with the Singapore Navy and which has the capability to accommodate an American aircraft carrier in its accompanying destroyers during a wartime scenario with China America's Naval presence in Singapore grants it the ability to almost immediately take advantage of China's greatest Achilles heel blockade the straight of malaka a tiny 1 and A2 mile wide stretch of water through which a whopping 60% % of all the oil China currently consumes passes through on its Voyage from the oil Rich Persian Gulf halting any of these tiners from passing through the straight would immediately eliminate 60% of China's entire oil supply which would immediately Force Beijing into making difficult decisions once their stock piles of oil start running out would they force rationing of oil on billions of Chinese citizens in order to commit more of their dramatically reduced Supply to The Invasion and war effort would their military machine eventually run out of oil and the Invasion fail as a result what would end up being the long-term impact of the Chinese economy with the immediate destruction of most of its oil supply it's not a pleasant thought to think about in Beijing and it's still not the end of America's island chain strategy either behind the first island chain is what American Military planners like to refer to as the second island chain which is mostly centered on small US territories of the Mariana Islands and especially Guam Guam may be a tiny Island it's fewer than 30 Mi long and only about four miles wide at its narrowest point but it's very densely populated and home to nearly 170,000 people it's also one of the most significant bases of the US military roughly onethird of all the islands's land is owned directly by the US Department of Defense with about 8,000 US troops stationed there with large numbers of Fighters bombers missiles and most crucially of all five of America's most advanced nuclear power to attack submarines and unlike America's more forward operating bases in South Korea Japan the Philippines and Singapore Guam is actually fully s Sovereign American territory and functions as the US military's largest and Unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Western Pacific it is also the US military's primary Logistics hub for supporting all of the more forward operating us bases in the first island chain but there's an even bigger rear base that the US military uses even further behind Guam in Hawaii Pearl Harbor is on the island of aahu near Honolulu and it is the headquarters of the US Pacific Fleet around 40,000 more US troops are stationed on the island and crucially 17 more of America's Advanced Nuclear Power Attack submarines are headquartered here as well which is roughly a third of all of America's nuclear attack submarines worldwide even further back on the US West Coast are the US Naval bases at Kitsap Washington and San Diego California both of which are home to one and four more nimit class nuclear powerered super carriers respectively the base at kitap is arguably more important than the one in San Diego though because it's one of only two bases where the US station it's strategic ballistic missile submarines that are armed with nuclear weapons eight of these nuclear weapon armed strategic submarines are based at Kitsap along with two more nuclear-powered conventional ballistic missile submarines and five more nuclear powerered attack subs and in addition of Guam Pearl Harbor kit saap and potentially Subic Bay in the Philippines again the US is actively working to create yet another nuclear submarine base in the Pacific as well in Australia in 2021 the governments of Australia the UK and the US announced an unprecedented security pact between them that they called Aus an anagram of Australia the UK and the US before this treaty the United States had never before shared its top secret nuclear submarine technology with another country besides for the UK back in 1958 for the first time ever since then the Aus pact will see the US and the UK sharing their top secret nuclear submarine technology with the Australians to help them develop their own nuclear subs as a part of the packs terms the Western Australian city of Perth will become the host of the next major nuclear submarine base in the Indo Pacific American and British nuclear submarines will be stationed at Perth until Australia purchases a set of five modern nuclear submarines from the United States to station there themselves and then they'll eventually develop their own domestic nuclear submarine program by 2050 but the Aus pact has been extremely controversial within domestic Australian politics Australia agreeing to the deal necessarily meant that the Australian government also had to suddenly and without any notice cancel a prior nuclear submarine agreement that they had made with France that was valued at 56 billion e which resulted in an understandably outraged French government that recalled their ambassadors from both Australia and the United States over the incident moreover the new Aus deal is currently estimated to cost the Australian government up to $368 billion over the next several years through to 2050 an extremely high amount of money that many Australians feel could be better spent on more Dom domestic issues at home instead but it's not just the new submarine base at perk that the Aus pact is creating it's also creating a new major US Air Force Base in the far north of Australia Tindle where the United States will be allowed to park up to six of their strategic B52 bombers at these strategic bombers are capable of carrying nuclear weapons and they have an operational range of 14,200 KM without needing to refuel which places all of China's most heavily populated regions within their range from Tindle together with the nuclear weapon armed submarines at Kitsap in Washington and the potential return of American nuclear missiles to South Korea this represents the full nuclear Triad that the United States presents to China within the Indo Pacific with potentially soon to be landbased missiles in South Korea seab based missiles from the submarines out of kitp and air-based bombs from out of Tindle one of America's greatest concerns about fighting a war with China over Taiwan will be China's increasingly Advanced anti- acccess area denial or A2 D2 capabilities China's DF 21A missile has a range of 1,770 KM while their DF 26 missile has a range of 4,000 km these missiles have dramatically increased China's so-called area of Engagement the area where Chinese conventional missiles can reliably strike enemy Targets on the very first day of the war the Hudson Institute calculated in 2022 that China could concentrate up to 11 kilotons of conventional explosive missiles into highe the largest city on Taiwan from there with greater distance away from mainland China China's conventional missile strike capacity diminishes but still remains relatively strong all throughout the first and second island chains with a capability to even strike American targets as far away is Guam with about 2 kilotons of explosive power in a day these capabilities make American surface ships and especially aircraft carriers operating within China's area of Engagement Zone highly vulnerable to attack andoss sinking all throughout the first and second island chains which is why the US military's growing Focus to counter China has been relying Less on syncable aircraft carriers and more on Unsinkable nearby islands that they can park military assets on like Okawa the southern ryuku Islands Luzon in the Philippines and also in Guam in addition to underwater nuclear-powered submarines that can remain beneath the surface for years at a time and are invulnerable to China's A2 D2 capabilities and missiles flying through the air America's carriers and other surface ships would likely stay far away from Taiwan and far away from China's missiles preferring to remain further behind within the second island chain providing air cover for guav blockading Chinese Maritime trade and only briefly Sailing In and Out of China's area of Engagement Zone to attack Chinese ships and planes infrequently if China decided to launch an invasion of Taiwan in the United States did decide to respond militarily US Marines armed with anti-ship and anti-air weapons would likely quickly move to position themselves across all of Japan's Southern ryuku islands and all of the Philippines smaller northern islands within the bosi channel extending all the way up to little yummi island which is fewer than 90 Mi away from Taiwan their objectives would be to hold their Islands at all costs and Destroy any Chinese warships and war planes trying to pass through them to flank Taiwan in the East buying the ROC Defenders on the island enough time until us and probably Japanese reinforcements can arrive on taiwan's Eastern Shore us planes taking off from bases in South Korea Japan and the Philippines would immediately try and achieve air superiority all around Taiwan America's Naval Assets in Singapore would likely move to sever China's critical oil import route while America's many nuclear attack submarines in the area would stealthily depart from their bases in Kitsap Hawaii Guam Perth and potentially from Subic Bay to accomplish multiple objectives they would seek to plug up all of the narrow Maritime choke points found across the Indonesian archipelago in order to deny China the ability to reroute any of their oil imports from Mala while more would Patrol like sharks around the other Maritime choke points around the Philippines and within the Bashi Channel between lison and Taiwan and in between all of Japan's ryuku islands and within the Korea straight all would be given kill orders to immediately attack and sink any PL warships trying to break into the Sea of Japan the Philippine Sea or anywhere into the wider Indo Pacific in order to contain the war to strictly being around China's own immediate Shoreline all of this while America's strategic nuclear Triad in the Indo Pacific Theater with assets and Kitsap and Tindle and probably soon to be South Korea all remain on standby for any potential escalation of the war from Beyond Taiwan throughout the entire conflict the Spectre of a nuclear war erupting between the United States and the PRC would permanently loom in the background never before in human history have two nuclear armed military great powers ever gone to war against the other the PRC wields an estimated nuclear arsenal of around 400 Total War heads today in 2023 including at least several dozen icbms such as the DF 5B that can strike anywhere on the earth outside of South America including anywhere in the US Mainland by the end of the 2020s the prc's nuclear Arsenal is expected a further increase up to around a th000 total Warheads still much smaller than the American nuclear weapons Arsenal but also still the third largest nuclear Arsenal in the world there will be plenty capable of annihilating the United States and ensuring mutually assured destruction between Beijing and Washington should one ever be tempted to use them in the conflict with both Beijing and Washington possessing such apocalyptic capability of annihilating the other with nukes many theorists believe that neither the PRC nor the US would ever dare to strike each other's mainlands even with Conventional Weapons which would imply that the war would be limited to strictly Maritime aerial an amphibious assault immediately around Taiwan and across the many seas and islands of the Indo Pacific the us argues that all of its extensive military preparations recently around China are designed to deter the PRC from ever attempting an armed invasion of Taiwan in the first place but from beijing's perspective all of America's preparations certainly look extremely aggressive and probably feel more like the United States is trying to contain them I mean just look at the map flipped around from their perspective their entire coastline is surrounded by US military bases now which during a war will not only severely restrict their ability to sail out anywhere into the greater Pacific but will also severely restrict their ability to import critical things they need from abroad like oil gas microchips and even food China could be fairly easily placed under a total Maritime blockade by all of the US and allied forces in the first and second island chains and so there are some who fear that rather than deterring the PRC from launching an invasion of Taiwan all of America's extensive military posturing in the area is encouraging the PRC to launch its Invasion sooner rather than later instead if you were in charge of China wouldn't it make some sense if you were determined to take Taiwan no matter what to at least consider launching your invasion of Taiwan before the United States and Allied Forces around you grow even stronger before the AA security pact fully comes to fruition with us nuclear submarines present in per and US strategic bombers present in Tindle before the newly announced US military bases in the Philippines are established and before the US Navy can potentially return again to Subic Bay before Japan can fully militarize its Southern ryuku islands and before American nuclear weapons return to South Korea and before Taiwan purchases more capable arms from the Americans the more and more that the US prepares for this war with China that it is trying so desperately to avoid the more it risks pushing China into deciding to launch the war for Taiwan in the first place before it becomes too late for them to do so and China of course has their own ideas for how to push back against the United States and still manag to emerge victorious in Taiwan naturally the PRC would obviously prefer to take control over Taiwan without having to fire a shot and there are multiple steps that Beijing can take before a full-blown Invasion comes they can attempt to politically meddle in the island and hope for the return of the more pro- reunification Quang party to power in the upcoming January 2024 presidential election but the Quang have been absent from power in the ROC ever since 2016 while the more Pro Taiwan Independence Dem ratic people's party or DPP has been in power ever since then if the DPP wins the election in January of 2024 again and it appears that political meddling within Taiwan isn't working as intended then Beijing can take more limited so-called Gray Zone actions to test the international community's resolve on Taiwan first before committing to the full scale Invasion option one of these options would be invading and seizing kin Men first a small group of islands home to 127,000 people that are governed as a county of The Roc that are 187 km away from the roc's main island of Taiwan but merely 5 km off of the coast of the prc's Mainland attacking and seizing kin men from the rooc could serve as the prc's dress rehearsal for a later fullscale invasion of The Roc and Taiwan later would the United States after all really risk a cataclysmic war with China simply over little kin men it would be very similar in a way to Russia's more limited invasion of Ukraine back in 2014 when they quickly seized control over Crimea and sevastopol which warranted very little Western intervention Beyond a few limited economic sanctions and which obviously precipitated Russia's fullscale invasion of Ukraine 8 years later in 2022 China is currently watching very very closely with how the West continues to react to the evolving Russian invasion of Ukraine if the West resolve eventually ever falters over Ukraine and they stop sending Aid and then Ukraine subsequently collapses it sends a clear message to Beijing on how long they might have to wait for the West to similarly capitulate over Taiwan and thus seizing kin men could serve as the prc's version of Russia's early seizure of Crimea and then beyond that there is the option to initiate a limited or a partial blockade of Taiwan the PRC could declare either around Taiwan and aim it at the Island's greatest Achilles heal its critical over dependence on energy Imports you see Taiwan Imports the overwhelming majority of its energy resources from abroad to the tune of 97% of the energy that they consume including virtually all of their oil liquefied natural gas or LNG and coal a lot of these Imports come from other countries who are relatively friendly to the ROC like Australia who in 20121 provided 55% of taiwan's coal Imports and 32% of its l& Imports along with the United States Who provided a further 9% of taiwan's LNG Imports and plans to expand those Imports even further but many more of taiwan's foreign energy providers are not as solidly friendly and committed to taiwan's sovereignty as Australia or the United States and are substantially more vulnerable to coercion coming from Beijing there is Russia who in 2021 provided roughly 15% of taiwan's coal Imports and 10% of its LG Imports Russia has previously shown a clear willingness to weaponize its energy resources against Europe during the war in Ukraine while Russia is increasingly growing more and more dependent upon China at the same time after the collapse of Russia's energy Market in Europe China has emerged as the largest New Market for Russia to sell their vast energy resources to and consequently Russia sells vastly more energy resources to China than they do to Taiwan if Beijing delivered Moscow and ultimatum in choosing between them it is clear that the Russians would end up choosing China and halt their deliveries to Taiwan and the Chinese might not stop there Qatar provides about 25% of taiwan's LG Imports while Indonesia provides about 24% of taiwan's coal Imports and to further 6% of its LG Imports Qatar sells significantly more of its LG to China than it does to Taiwan Indonesia has received billions of dollars worth of Investments through China's belt and Road initiative and also sells significantly more raw materials to China than it does to Taiwan and neither Qatar nor Indonesia have yet agreed to join in on any of the West's Financial sanctions against Russia China could thus potentially use a combination of carrots and sticks to convince all three of these countries to at least remain neutral or to even operate with the hypothetical Chinese blockade of Taiwan which will induce significant pressures to taiwan's energy security and ability to power itself and further test the resolve of the United States without going full send to The Invasion option and then of course if all of these previous options fail to bring Taiwan beneath the prc's control there is The fullscale Invasion option the PRC is well aware that this option will be one of the most difficult military operations ever carried out in human history it will involve the largest amphibious oper operation in history since the D-Day Landings at Normandy during World War II which will necessitate using thousands of ships planes and missiles to accomplish it is estimated that China will need to commit somewhere between 300,000 to 1 million troops or even more to The Invasion to have any Hope of Victory and assembling such a massive Invasion force with all of their accompanying transport ships and equipment on the western side of the Taiwan Strait will be impossible to hide from American spy satellites operating above who will quickly begin sounding the alarm over the imminent Invasion just as they began doing in the months leading up to Russia's invasion of Ukraine the prc's a2d 2 missile capabilities on the mainland are designed to turn the skies dense with Chinese missiles that will keep the American Navy Marines and Air Force along with all of their allies far enough away from Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait to keep the invasion route open and secure for as long as possible the PRC will need this because they need to win the invasion of Taiwan as swiftly as possible to have the best chance of success ideally with within days to weeks at a maximum if they fail to quickly take the island and the war turns into a protracted conflict like Ukraine is morphed into then the greater the odds will be that it will lose with a US intervention and potentially Japanese Australian and UK intervention as well the longer China's Maritime trade and imports of critical raw materials like oil and gas are blockaded the greater the instability within China will become to say nothing of the piling casualties and humiliation at not being able to take Taiwan swiftly the PRC will desperately want to win as quickly as possible and so at the onset of choosing to launch The Invasion Beijing will likely have to take the most momentous decision that it will likely ever have to make in its entire history whether or not they will launch The Invasion with or without a preemptive first strike on United States military Assets in the Western Pacific if they decide not to do that and launch their Invasion without attacking the US first it stands to reason that there might be a chance no matter how small that the US has been bluffing this whole time and won't actually respond militarily and then if the US does react militarily China could attempt to claim that it was the US who fired first during what they will inevitably be referring to as an internal Chinese matter where the PRC was simply trying to subdue a rogue Province but of course not attacking the US military assets surrounding them first ensures that the US military will be at their full power and be most capable of restricting and defeating China's Invasion Force quickly and th there is the significantly riskier second option the 21st Century Pearl Harbor the prc's conventional ballistic and cruise missiles easily have the range from the Chinese Mainland to strike US military targets across South Korea and okanawa across the Philippines and even in Guam first before launching the invasion of Taiwan the PRC could fire hundreds and hundreds of these missiles in a surprise attack across all of these nearby US military bases and facilities in an attempt to preemptively neutral neutralize the US military's early ability to quickly respond to the invasion within the first and second island chains which would then ideally enable the PRC to launch its cross straight invasion of Taiwan rapidly and less opposed at first enabling them to hopefully from their perspective seize control over the entire Island quickly and then bunker down on it for the retaliatory attacks by the United States that would inevitably come next this option is inherently the more risky out of the two because for one it would all but guarantee a ferocious United States response to the scale of the war against Japan in the 1940s it would also mean that China would be widely perceived as a massive warmonger on the global stage for clearly firing the first shots China might also still struggle with taking Taiwan as quickly as they had hoped leading to this eventual ferocious rival of the United States they would probably sound defeat them anyway moreover the prc's military is still untested and lacks any real EXP experience as the last war the country fought in was their invasion of Vietnam back in 1979 which was nearly 4 and 1 12 decades ago now the US military has very recent experience fighting actual combat in comparison though of a kind that would be very different from the amphibious Warfare that would be likely around Taiwan and in addition to launching the main assault on Taiwan there would also be a ferocious battle waged across the South China Sea which the PRC largely claims in its entirety as Chinese territorial Waters backed up by China's claims to the tiny spratly islands and the many artificial Islands they have constructed that are full of PRC military assets including Naval and air bases and radar stations the PRC is so aggressive in their claims to the South China Sea and their construction of militarized islands within it because during an invasion of Taiwan scenario they want to be able to adequately project power down to Singapore and the US Naval Base at Changi there so they can claw the straight of malaka open and keep their critical Imports of oil and LG from the Persian Gulf flow flowing through it in order to keep their economy and War Machine running nearly every single foreign policy decision and action that the PRC makes is all about overcoming this critical vulnerability that they know the US Navy will exploit during a war it's partially why the pla opened their first overseas military base in history in jibuti and why they're potentially seeking to acquire further bases in the future at gavar and Pakistan and Hanta in Sri Lanka and in the Coco islands of Myanmar all of which so far has been unsubstantiated but could always happen in the future China's Relentless drive to pursue its belt and Road initiative is primarily focused on overcoming this over Reliance on their oil and gas Imports coming through Mala and reducing the risk of a US Naval blockade there and throughout Indonesia crippling their energy Imports coming from the Persian Gulf China's support for Russia and the transformation of the Russian State into a sort of Chinese vassel State ever since the invasion of Ukraine has been designed to get Russian oil and gas to China through Overland pipelines and the Northern sea route for l G to reduce beijing's overdependence on malaka China has relentlessly pursued investments into other oil and gas rich countries nearby like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan as well in order to construct further Overland pipelines bringing oil and gas into China in a safer and more reliable way that the US and allies can't as easily intercept as the maritime Imports coming in through malaka and it's why China has also relentlessly pursued investments into and supported the regimes of strategically located countries around it that can transport persan Gulf oil and gas into China before those Imports ever even reach malaka countries such as Pakistan in which China has invested tens of billions of dollars to create the so-called China Pakistan economic Corridor a vast network of Highways and railroads being built to connect the Pakistani deep waterer Port of guar with China's Western Shen Jong Province through which the Chinese will eventually be able to import large amounts of oil through from the Persian Gulf without having to rely on those Imports going through the vulnerable straight of Mala and even more crucially than Pakistan there is also Myanmar where between 2013 and 2017 China invested billions of dollars to construct The crucial C Myanmar crude oil and gas pipelines a pair of twin oil and gas pipelines that begin in myanmar's deep water Port of kiaku in the Bay of Bengal and run for nearly 500 miles across the country to K Ming in China's yanan Province since these are actual pipelines and not highways or Railways like in Pakistan the Sino Myanmar pipeline enables China to import very large volumes of oil and gas directly from the Persian Gulf without those resources having to pass through the blockable straight of Mala making it a vital component of China's energy security and ability to confront the United States during a war over Taiwan it is also why China so heavily supports the extremely authoritarian military regime in Myanmar known as the totau in 20121 the Tau military in Myanmar launched an Infamous kudatah that overthrew the civilian elected government in the country immortalized Forever by this viral clip that you've probably seen of this woman dancing as the coup plotters behind her are busy actively overthrowing the government in that coup's aftermath Myanmar has descended into one of the most violent and devastating civil wars that the 21st century has ever seen and become the only failed state in Southeast Asia the whole country has ever since become more of a geographic expression than an actual United Country with a complicated Patchwork Mosaic of dozens of competing Rebel factions all vying for control and influence against each other and against the increasingly repressive and authoritarian central government now ruled by the totau military the undemocratic military regime has also since become one of the most heavily sanctioned and isolated regimes in the world as well which has pushed them ever closer into the orbit of countries like China and Russia without any countries in the Western World now willing to assist myanmar's military regime China now has extensive leverage in the country to expand their pipelines even further to continue reducing their oil and gas Imports coming in through malaka and to potentially pressure them into allowing the pla to finally establish an overseas military base on the Coco Islands as well nearby to malaka on the Strait's western side as such Chinese and Russian military vehicles and planes have been frequently spotted in the service of the totau military in its complicated war against the many Rebel factions now pushing back against it and Beijing needs the toodo military to win the civil war in the country because they need to continue maintaining their ability to keep importing oil and gas through the Sino Myanmar pipelines in order to keep reducing their overreliance on energy Imports coming through the malaka Strait in order to be in a better position to eventually launch their invasion of Taiwan if the topado falls and a new regime unfriendly to Beijing emerges from the chaotic Civil War in its place they could choose to shut the syo Myanmar pipelines down when Under Pressure coming from the United States and thus the eventual outcome of the ongoing Civil War in Myanmar has direct implications on China's ability to eventually seize Taiwan and America's ability to counter that Invasion but of course the mianmar Civil War itself is a very very complicated and dark subject it has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of people in the country only since it began in 2021 and has become one of the 21st Century's bloodiest conflicts but just before it began between 2016 and 2019 the totau military regime who now mostly rules the country even further perpetrated one of the 21st Century's largest scale genocides against the rohinga people in myanmar's western rahan state which resulted in unbelievable levels of human suffering rarely seen since the 20th century and the largest Refugee crisis seen anywhere in Asia since the Vietnam War the complicated and massive internal conflict still raging across Myanmar is thus one of the darkest chapters of all of 21st century history so far far and it is directly related to everything that you just listen to me talk about throughout this entire video but unfortunately due to the inherently violent controversial and recent nature of discussing one of the biggest ongoing genocides and Wars taking place anywhere in the world if I made a video covering it all here on YouTube it would almost certainly become demonetized and age restricted which would ultimately mean that YouTube's algorithm would never promote it to you and you would probably never even see it that's why instead of uploading it here to YouTube I created yet another fulllength companion video to this one in my ongoing modern conflict series that's about the same length as this video you just watched that covers the entire history course and explanation of the ongoing Civil War in Myanmar and the associated genocide of the renja people and uploaded it directly to nebula and this is just one of more than two dozen exclusive fulllength real life Lord documentaries that you can only find on nebula in My overall modern conflict series there that can all only be found over there because of all of their darker more controversial subject material there are further episodes in modern complex you can go and watch right now as well covering China's own genocidal actions against the weager people in the Shen Jong Province other recent major Civil Wars like the ones in Ethiopia Syria Libya and Yemen episodes covering how Isis was able to rapidly rise to power in the Middle East and then was subsequently defeated more episodes covering the ongoing 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Channel: RealLifeLore

Views: 6,388,987

Keywords: real life lore, real life lore maps, real life lore geography, real life maps, world map, world map is wrong, world map with countries, world map real size, map of the world, world geography, geography, geography (field of study), facts you didn’t know

Id: xBY5veWGBd8

Length: 58min 25sec (3505 seconds)

Published: Wed Oct 25 2023