Why Russia Might Invade Georgia (Again)

as the devastating war in Ukraine continues grinding on without a clear end in sight tensions are rapidly rising in another nation that borders Russia who the Kremlin has previously invaded twice in only the past three decades Georgia in May of 2024 hundreds of thousands of Jordan citizens took to the streets in their nation's capital TI bissi to protest against their government's passing of a new and highly controversial law in the country the ruling party that governs in Georgia the Georgian Dream party officially refers to this new laws the transparency of foreign influence Bill once an in a law the bill will require that all Nos and media companies operating in Georgia who receive more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register themselves as pursuing the interests of a foreign power in a public registry the Georgian Dream party argues that this bill is necessary to provide transparency on where Nos and media companies in Georgia are receiving their funding from but critics and opponents of the bill argue that it's almost identical to a similar law that was passed by Vladimir Putin's government in Russia back in 2012 which has enabled the Russian government ever since to suppress crack down on and shut down opposition media outlets and NOS in the country a pattern that could be replicated by The georan Dream party to suppressed the opposition in Georgia too for this reason opponents of the foreign influence Bill have labeled it as the Russian law but it's not the only reason why they've been calling it that because the Bill's passing likely also carries with it tremendous geopolitical benefits for the Kremlin too because it'll probably prevent Georgia from becoming accepted into the European Union and NATO as well both EU EU and NATO have repeatedly stressed the Georgia's passing of the new foreign influence bill will make them incompatible with their values and that it will jeopardize Georgia's membership prospects as a result for decades most Georgians have long aspired to become a member of both blocks of nations with current polling showing that almost 80% of the Georgian population desires their country to join the European Union and another poll showing that roughly 87% of Georgians see the ongoing war in Ukraine as a shared cause having themselves been invaded by Russia twice in the past three decades that resulted in 20% of their own internationally recognized territory falling under Russian military occupation it was only a few months ago in December of 2023 when Georgia was finally offered its long awaited and much coveted candidacy status by the European Union which if one day approved into a fully fledged member state would establish a disconnected chunk of the European Union across the Black Sea over in Western Asia wedged in between Russia and Turkey which would also make Georgia the fifth EU member state to share a direct border with Russia after Poland Lithuania Lavia Estonia and Finland but it was only 4 months after Georgia received its EU candidacy status that the ruling Georgia dream party decided to reintroduce their controversial foreign influence law again you see the party had originally introduced the bill back in February of 2023 but after Fierce protests erupted in the capital city against it the bill was quickly withdrawn this time with the bill back in 2024 however the Georgian government's response to the protesters has been significantly more heavy-handed than they ever were before involving water cannons tear gas and even rubber bullets as the georan dream party has made it explicitly clear that they are determined to pass the new law through regardless of how unpopular it might be and regardless of how much it jeopardizes their ability to actually join the EU and NATO there is therefore a major concern growing that the Georgian government is actively drifting the country back into the orbit of Russia again a concern that hasn't been helped by many other of the government's actions recently such as their arrest an imprisonment of the former pro- Western Georgian president and Ukrainian Citizen M sakashi since 2021 the refusal to participate in any sanctions on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine the resumption of direct air travel with Russia since 2023 and their dramatically increased trade volume with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine started with Georgian exports to Russia Rising by nearly 7% in 2022 and Georgian imports from Russia skyrocketing by 79% over the same time period this has led the Ukrainian government to frequently criticize the Georgian government of assisting the Russians in evading sanctions and tensions between them have gotten so high recently that Kiev recalled their ambassador to tibilisi in June of 2022 and then shortly after Georgia resumed the direct flights with Russia in 20123 Kiev even expelled the Georgian ambassador from their country and announced sanctions on Georgian Airways as a consequence and then later in September of 2023 the speaker of the Georgian Parliament even asserted that Ukraine was plotting a coup inor Georgia to overthrow the Georgian Dream party and push the country into the war with Russia since then the Georgian government has repeatedly accused both the United States and Ukraine of attempting to push Georgia into joining the war against Russia to reclaim their occupied territories and to open up a second front for the Kremlin to have to deal with and they've even gone so far as to openly accuse the US of plotting a coup in the country and fermenting the current high levels of unrest going on against them and all of this is increasingly coming to the Delight of Russia who is openly praise the ruling Georgian Dream party and its new foreign influence Bill while they still occupy 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory Russia has also long maintained its own policy of keeping Georgia out of the EU and NATO as much as possible just like they've done in Ukraine because like Ukraine Georgia occupies an extremely important piece on the board of global geopolitics especially from the perspective of Moscow it is a space that both the west and Russia want to control and keep within their own respective camps for a plethora of important reasons and in order to understand why it helps to begin with sheer geography Georgia is often considered to be a transcontinental country because it exists at the hardto Define Crossroads between Eastern Europe and Western Asia the country's claim territory strandes most of the greater Caucasus mountain range historically a valuable Geographic Frontier region separating the vast flat Eurasian step in southern Russia from the great Empires that emerged in Western Asia like the Turks and the Persians the region of the Caucasus has long been a Battleground area for influence in the center between all three of these greater neighboring Empires around it and so for centuries the Russians have maintained a strong policy of controlling at least the greater Caucasus Mountains in order to control all of the access points from Western Asia into Southern Russia where it's basically just flat easily traversable land all the way from there to Ukraine and vulgarr which if captured would isolate Russia from the black and Caspian Seas geographically speaking there are really only four viable over Land Transportation routes to take to travel through or around the greater Caucasus Mountains today there are the two narrow Coastal approaches to the west and the east of the mountains between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea while the only two routs in between the run through or over the mountains are the Georgian Military Road here that follows the traditional Mountain Pass route used by Invaders and Merchants for centuries and the nearby Roki tunnel a tunnel pass going through the mountains that was only built during the Soviet era and completed in 1984 if all four of these routes can be effectively controlled by Russia then they can essentially control all landbased travel between Western Asia and Russia and so they can block any hostile land Army from advancing from this direction into the exposed step of Southern Russia that is significantly more challenging to defend historically this was Russia's primary concern with controlling the area around the greater Caucasus Mountains which included Georgia Georgia was steadily annexed by the Russians in the early 19th century in a peac meal fashion and then remained within the Russian Empire until the country collapsed during the first world war in 1917 Georgia then managed to briefly emerge as an independent republic before it was swallowed back up again by the Red Army in 1921 and incorporated into the new Soviet Union Georgia was then as it still is today an ethnically and linguistically diverse place because of its mountainous geography the Georgians were by far the largest single group and always made up a majority but there were large minorities of azanis Armenians Russians Greeks and two important lesser known groups known as the oans and the aasian the oans are disconnected Iranian ethnic group more closely related to Kurds and Persians than any of their neighbors who straddled the border between Russia and Georgia while the abkhazians are a small Caucasian ethnic group most closely related to the circassians to the north and Russia after the Soviet Union came to control the region they established the Georgian Soviet Republic as a full Union Republic of the country but within this Republic they also created the South oian autonomous ablast and the obaz autonomous Republic as well which each maintained a high degree of autonomy separate from the rest of Georgia this is how things largely remained within Georgia for decades until the Soviet Union began collapsing in 1989 and Georgian oian and oba's nationalism All Began increasing in the ensuing power vacuum at the time the majority of obas and oans wished to remain within the Soviet Union in order to remain closer to their oian and ccasian kin in Russia while the Georgians generally desired outright Independence Moscow began strategically supporting the South oan and oba's Nationalist and separatist movements in order to apply leverage against the Great greater Georgian independence movement and then as tensions continued building the local Georgian Soviet government unilaterally revoked the autonomy of South otia in 1990 without receiving approval from Moscow fighting erupted between the South oeans and the obas in the Georgian government and after Georgia declared their independence from the Soviet Union in early 1991 the fighting in alazia and South otia transformed into separatist rebellions that the Russian government began actively supporting with arms and volunteers by 199 3 the Russian support to the obas and South oian separatist had proved decisive with separatist forces managing to secure control over the majority of the former autonomous regions of abazia and South otia during and after the war in abazia in particular the obaz side perpetrated a mass ethnic cleansing campaign of the Region's Georgian population more than 200,000 ethnic Georgians were forcefully expelled at gunpoint from abasia into the rest of Georgia while more than 5,000 others were massacred by oba's paramilitaries which severely altered abazia demographics Jordans plummeted from 45.7% of abazia population in 1989 to fewer than 18% by 2011 while the obas population Rose from only 18% to about 51% of the total population over the same time period despite this however Georgia initially aligned itself closer to Russia by joining the Moscow Le defense Alliance known as the Commonwealth of independent states at the end of 1993 before withdrawing only half a decade later in 199 99 along with aeran and then after Vladimir Putin came to power as Russia's president in 2000 Russia began pursuing a more forward policy towards the separatist regions of abazia and South oia with Georgia out of the CST he led Russia into imposing a Visa regime on Georgia at the end of 2000 and starting in 2002 he led Russia into rolling out a massive passport program to the residents of South otia abazia without the Georgian government's approval granting roughly 90% of each of their population's Russian passp reports and increasing Russian territorial claims to the regions in the process anger and resentment towards Georgia's conciliatory foreign policy to Russia along with lingering political corruption and poverty mounted and eventually culminated with the rose revolution of 2003 which overthrew the previous corrupt government led by Edward chevat and catapulted the extremely pro-western miky sakashi into power as the country's next president instead which radically altered Georgia's geopolitical alignment the previous Georgian government had announced their intention to join NATO the year before the Revolution in 2002 as Russia began giving passports to the residents in South oia and abazia but zakashi was passionately adamant about Georgia's future in both NATO and the European Union and he vowed that his top foreign policy priority was returning full Georgian control over the separatist regions of aazia and South oia once again and so to help align Georgia more with the west and increase their odds of becoming accepted into NATO and the EU sakashi led the country H into sending large numbers of Georgian soldiers to support the US War efforts in both Iraq and Afghanistan by 2008 Georgia had 2300 of their soldiers deployed to Iraq the third highest number of all the states in the International Coalition behind only the United States and the United Kingdom themselves while in Afghanistan Georgia became the largest non-nato and by far the largest per capita troop contributor with more than 1,500 soldiers deployed there by 2012 in total between 2004 and 2021 more than 20,000 Georgian service members served in Afghanistan while 32 Georgian servicemen were killed in action and another 435 wounded in the country Georgia's outsized contributions to Iraq and Afghanistan were of course deliberately crafted by sakash ville's government to try and sway American and Western support for Georgia's admission to Nato in the European Union in order to help Georgia eventually reassert its own control over their separatist regions of abcasia and South oia again but it wasn't just Georgia's milit Ary support in Iraq and Afghanistan that was making the country more attractive to the West either it was also the increasingly valuable space that they occupied on the board you see the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 opened up for the first time the massive oil and gas fields of the Caspian Sea Basin to the Western World approximately 3% of the world's oil reserves and about 7% of the world's natural gas reserves are found here around the Caspian and while it used to all be dominated by the Soviets and blocked off from the West the Soviet collapse placed the key of the Caspian Seas oil and gas resources into the hands of newly independent states like aeran Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan just about every major Western Energy company you can think of began moving into the region across the 1990s to break themselves into the brand new market but they quickly found that it was going to be geographically difficult to transport the Region's energy resources from the landlocked Caspian Sea to markets far away in Europe initially every oil and gas pipeline from the Caspian Sea ran through Russia for first a legacy of Russia's dominance over these countries during the Soviet era the Western energy companies wanted to construct their own oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian region that led back to Europe but they wanted to avoid routing any of those pipelines through Iran to the South or through Russia to the north and that left two possible options the pipelines could either go from the Caspian Sea through aeran Georgia and turkey towards Europe or they could go from the Caspian Sea through aeran Armenia and turkey towards Europe instead but at the time aeran and Armenia had a very serious territorial dispute going on over the status of negoro kabak and the two were effectively locked in a frozen war with one another aeran refused to consider allowing this new export route to travel through their arch geopolitical rival and So to avoid Armenia the Western energy companies along with aeran and turkey decided to Route their new Caspian oil export pipeline North through Georgia instead completed in 2005 the new Baku tibilisi Sean o oil pipeline enabled aeran to export their oil supplies through Georgia and turkey towards the Turkish Port of Sean where oil tankers carry the oil the rest of the way across the Mediterranean to markets all across Europe the new route enabled Europe to lessen their dependence on oil imports coming in from the Middle East and Russia and that gave Georgia's location controlling the center of the route a new found strategic value to the Europeans and then everything began finally coming to a head in 2008 in February of that year Kosovo unilaterally declared its independence from Serbia after being fully controlled by separatist forces for nearly the past decade kosovo's Independence was almost immediately recognized by virtually every single Western Country within a matter of months and then seizing on the precedent they believed at set obaz and South oia each submitted a formal request to Russia to officially recognize their own independence from Georgia and then the month after that in April of 2008 came the NATO Summit in Bucharest during which NATO's leaders publicly made promises that Georgia would one day soon be officially offered an invitation to join the alliance but this Prospect of Georgia entering into NATO horrified the Russians and was interpreted by Moscow as a firm red line that shouldn't be crossed if Georgia flipped from being within Russia's CST military Alliance to Nato then Georgia would likely be supported by NATO into helping the sakashi government regain control over all of the separatist controlled parts of abazia and South otia which would then Place NATO forces largely in control over three of the four primary entrances into the steps of Southern Russia when factoring in Turkey NATO's border with Russia would be extended continuously all the way to the greater Caucasus Mountains themselves while the Eastern rim of the Black Sea would be extended under NATO Maritime control to position n NATO Maritime and air assets precipitously close by to the Russian Port of Nova RIS which is the second most significant Naval base for the Russian Black Sea Fleet after sevastopol in Crimea and even more importantly it's also the most significant oil port on the Black Sea Coast that sees about 2 million barrels of oil per day flowing through it as pipelines from Kazakhstan and Russia transport their oil to be loaded up on a tankers in the Nova Reis Harbor and on top of all of that Georgia's entrance into NATO would permanently drive a wedge between Russia and Armenia another member of the Moscow Leed CST military Alliance that would become hugely isolated from the rest of the alliance which would then likely enable their Rivals aeran and turkey to begin steadily picking the country territory apart without a clear Geographic Way for their Ally Russia to actually intervene to stop them Georgia's entrance into NATO would also solidify the West's control over the AER bani oil pipeline route to Sean which would serve to continue Europe's ability to lessen their economic Reliance on Russian oil and energy resources in the long term and while Russia knew that NATO was not plotting an imminent invasion of Southern Russia after adding Georgia to the alliance Most states that operate in the International System including Russia are more concerned about capability than intent intent to invade can evolve with time after all there were few in Russia who perceived Germany to be a major existential threat in 1930 but it only took 11 years from then for Germany to launch an allout genocidal war of Conquest into Russia anyway and while intent can evolve with time Geographic capability to attack remains constant Georgia's admission into NATO and their subsequent subjugation of abazia and South oia would Place NATO forces immediately opposite of the greater Caucasus Mountain with three of the primary entrances into flat Southern Russia largely under their control a highly sensitive part of the country was Russia's own most serious active separatist movements in Cheta and dagistan where there were still major active armed insurgencies going on at the time Russia was fearful that NATO could then utilize its new position in Georgia to inflame or even support the separatist movements in Cheta and dagistan and undermined Russia even further especially after they witnessed NATO attack Serbia in 1999 and prob the separatist movement in Kosovo afterwards if NATO did something similar to support the separatist movements in Cheta and dastan in gaining independence and then they allow NATO troops into their territories as peacekeepers just like Koso did after 1999 the NATO forces would gain a direct foothold on the Eurasian step itself on the Northern side of the greater Caucasus Mountains with a clear shot for tanks to advance across the flat terrain towards asran and vulgarr two of Russia's most strategically important cities because they control the vulgar River and Russia's access to the oil and gas fields of the Caspian Sea in the 20th century when vulgarr was better known as Stalingrad the city's strategic importance was considered so great that the Soviets paid as many as 2 million lives to push the German Invaders away from it and for all of these Myriad reasons Putin's Russia calculated the NATO's Promises of Georgia's membership in the alliance at the Bucharest Summit in April of 2008 were simply unacceptable and they began preparing for war War a few months later in August of 2008 fighting broke out between South oian separatist forces in the Georgian Army and Russia seized on the opportunity it presented by launching a fullscale land sea and air invasion of Georgia in the name of supposedly protecting the south oans from a genocide that they falsely alleged the Georgians were carrying out in the territory Russia claimed that their 2008 invasion of Georgia was a peacekeeping operation the same way the NATO asserted that their 1999 bombing of Serbia and intervention in Kosovo was hundreds of soldiers were killed around 200,000 people were forcibly displaced including tens of thousands of Georgians were ethnically cleansed and pushed out of South oia and abazia South oia and abazia independences were each officially recognized by Russia and both effectively came fully under Russian military occupation with the establishment of multiple Russian military bases in each of them 20% of Georgia's internationally recognized territory then effectively became extensions of Russia and Georgia reacted by severing all diplomatic relations with Russia which has remained the case up until the present day Russia's victory in the war proved to be a strategic Boom for the kremlin's geographic positioning around the greater Caucasus Mountains their capture of abazia extended Russia's control of the Black Sea Coast established a buffer away from their critical Port of Nova RIS and secured firm Russian control over the Western Coastal entrance from Western Asia into Southern Russia while their capture of South oia solidified Russia's control over the entire extent of the Roki tunnel passing through the mountains and set the Russians up on a strategic High Ground area only 2 km away from the Georgian Military Road pass which could enable Russian forces to easily sever the road in the event of a crisis and effectively shut down all possible Overland travel routes from Western Asia to Southern Russia it also plac Russian forces within very close Striking Distance of the Baku tii Sean oil pipeline then almost runs right up against South oian territory meaning that if they wanted to in the event of a crisis it would be very easy for Russia to sever the pipeline in a eliminate what is today a vital oil and gas artery for Europe further still South oia's control enabled Russian tanks and artillery to position themselves fewer than 50 km or only about 30 m away from the Georgian capital of tibilisi a gun permanently pointed to Georgia's head to not continue advancing its relations with the West again or else after the disaster of the 2008 War Miko sakashi lost the next Georgian presidential election to the reclusive billionaire bidzina Ian asvi and his newly founded Georgian Dream party Georgian Dream has remained in power in Georgia ever since and while even Ashville only served as the country's official leader for a single year from 2012 to 2013 he has been widely believed to have maintained his power over the party and the leaders they've appointed to govern in Georgia behind closed doors ever since Ian ASV was born into poverty in Soviet Georgia but he relocated to Moscow in the 1980s and managed to emerge as a newly minted oligarch in the mining and banking Industries during the gangster ridden chaos of Russia in the 1990s before eventually returning back to his native Georgia again today iashvili is by far the wealthiest man alive in Georgia with an estimated net worth of approximately $6 billion US which is roughly equivalent to a third of Georgia's entire annual GDP he ran on a campaign in 2012 of balancing Georgia's complicated relationship between Russia and the west and positioned himself with his Decades of Prior experience in business relations with Russia as a guaran of further stability while he painted miky sakashi as being a two pro Western figure who would only continue exacerbating tensions with Moscow that could provoke Another War the strategy proved very effective and in the years since then the Georgian Dream is argued that in order for Georgia to ever become accepted into institutions like the EU and NATO the country requires stable and normalized relations with Russia first so that the West doesn't ever believe that Georgia will drag them into a war the party paid lip service to continuing with Georgia's bids to join nato in the EU but in reality carried out very little actual efforts to pursue them as it sought to repair the shattered relationship with Russia first meanwhile Georgia's geopolitical position to the West has grown increasingly more important since the Georgian Dream took over between 2008 and 2020 approximately $45 billion was invested into developing a series of natural gas pipelines connecting the massive gas fields of aeran with Europe that has become known as the southern gas Corridor and just like the previous Baku tibilisi Sean oil pipeline that came before it the southern gas Corridor routes through Georgia instead of Armenia due to AER Ban's opposition of having it routed through their arch rival Armenia azan's direct natural gas exports to Europe through the southern gas Corridor began only in 2020 and then the route became even more critically important in 2022 after the Russians invaded Ukraine and Europe decided to rapidly shift their previously High Imports of Russian oil and gas to Alternative providers instead aeran with its massive gas fields in the Caspian Sea and the existing infrastructure and relationships already in place was one of the most logical alternatives for the Europeans to court for additional supplies and as a result aeran pledged to double their pre-invasion gas exports to Europe through the southern gas Corridor by 2027 by which point if all else remains equal aeran will be providing the European Union with as much as 6 to 7% of their entire natural gas consumption through the pipeline that runs through Georgia which dramatic Ally increases Georgia's strategic significance to the west and so that largely explains why the European Union finally granted Georgia their long- awaited candidacy status just a few months ago in December of 2023 and now Russia would like to keep Georgia out of joining the EU and NATO for very similar reasons as they did back in 2008 but they also have even more reasons to prevent Georgia from aligning too closely with the West today too with the Russian Navy suffering heavy losses to the ukrainians since the War Began in 2022 the Russian Black Sea fleet has been largely driven out of its traditional bases in Crimea and forced to relocate itself to Novar on the black Sea's Eastern Rim well there has been much discussion about expanding the Black Sea fleet's presence in abazia with a proposed new deep waterer base that could end up being constructed here at oam chire which would Place Russian naval assets based there out of range of most of Ukraine's weapons while still enabling them to continue operating in the Black Sea region developing the ported oam chire would serve a dual purpose of objective for the Kremlin because it would also jeopardize the eu's plans to assist Georgia with developing their own nearby deep water Port here at anoca as it currently stands now Georgia doesn't have any deep water ports which means that only smaller displacement ships can carry goods from the country's two primary ports at Batumi and Podi which severely restricts the volume of goods the Georgian ports are capable of actually exporting if aoco was therefore developed into the country's first proper deep water Port it could handle substant stantially larger cargo container vessels than what is currently possible which would enhance Georgia's ability to export large volumes of products which would greatly enhance Georgia's geopolitical location at the epicenter of what is being called the middle Corridor trade route a proposed Trade Network of freight Railways highways ports and faeries connecting China with Europe by land without having any part of the route traveling through Western geopolitical opponents like Iran or Russia or aarian Turkish geopolitical opponents like Armenia this makes Georgia the absolute Lynch pin in making the middle corridor route actually viable as the transformation of aoca into a deep waterer Harbor would open up the ability for Chinese manufactured goods to travel over land to the port and then get moved on mass aboard large cargo container vessels the rest of the way to markets in Europe all while avoiding Russia Iran and Armenia in the process in addition to all of the critical oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian Sea to Europe that runs through Georgia this makes Georgia an absolutely critical space for the Europeans to consider having aligned on their side and it's why the Europeans are very interested in helping the Georgians with developing this deep waterer port at a noleia EU companies as well as Chinese companies have all staked out bids to construct the port while the Russians would clearly prefer the Chinese to construct and develop the port over the Europeans in order to ensure Chinese influence and control over the entire length of the middle Corridor trade route Russia might even simply prefer that AA never be developed at all in order to just block the middle corridor routes viability entirely and force Europe to continue relying either on the Northern Corridor land route that runs through Russia or the much longer Southern Maritime route through the Suez Canal or around the Cape of Africa and what better way to shut the ports prospects down than by constructing a brand new naval base in abazia at oire only 36 km away from it that could become a target of the war in Ukraine Georgia has entertained both sides in the port's development and Georgia is well aware of their increased geopolitical value to both the and to Russia since 2022 it may even be possible that the Georgian Dream government has weaponized the prospect of them drawing closer to Russia and China in order to Simply exert more leverage on Western countries and companies to get better terms out of them on ania's development and ownership but now with the imminent passing of the georan dreams new foreign influence law in the country that could enable the government to crack down on opposition media outlets and suppress descent Georgia's geopolitical future has never been more up in the air as it is now the EU and NATO have both heavily criticized the law and have said that his passing is incompatible with their values which jeopardizes Georgia's ability to align itself with the west and might push the government to move even further than it already has into the camp of Russia and China it's also conceivably possible that the widescale protests going on in Georgia right now against the law could eventually evolve into a Georgian version of the maidon Revolution that exploded in Ukraine back in 2014 that toppled what was then Ukraine's deeply pro-russian government but if something like that were to happen again in Georgia today it is almost a certainty that the moment it appeared the Jordan dream party was about to lose its grip on power the Kremlin would calculate that another military intervention into the country to support them would become necessary Moscow would almost certainly attempt to label any potential Revolt in Georgia as a us and Ukraine backed color revolution in coup and then they would use that as a pretext to justify sending in soldiers again in support of the government and just because the Russian armed forces are massively bogged down at the moment in Ukraine doesn't mean that Moscow wouldn't have the bandwidth to also send in an intervention in Georgia there is very very high precedent for Russia doing things like this going back to their 2014 intervention in Ukraine After the maidon Revolution When They seized Crimea their 2020 intervention into bellus to help quash pro-western protests that erupted against the Belarusian dictator Alexander lucenko and their January 2022 intervention into Kazakhstan to help quash anti-government protests that interrupted there as well approximately 2,000 Russian soldiers had been deployed to negoro kabak between Armenia and aeran as peacekeepers but after aeran overran the territory in September of 2023 and the Armenian government collapsed there the Russians suddenly announced in April of 2024 that they would be withdrawing all 2,000 of their troops from the area and it's anyone's best guess where they might end up getting redeployed to potentially to Ukraine or to potentially monitor the evolving situation in Georgia if Russia had the excuse to launch an intervention into Georgia again today they could deliberately sabotage the major oil and gas pipelines in Georgia connecting AER Ban's fields to Europe which would eliminate a huge amount of Europe's energy supplies and apply significantly higher economic and inflationary pressures on Europe in the process they could also claw out a land bridge to their theoretical CST Ally Armenia and establish a continuous land connection all the way to Iran in the process who is increasingly becoming a close economic and military ally of Russia's today and would also guarantee that the middle Corridor trade route project between the west and China would be forever a dead and buried idea enhancing their own leverage on Europe to come back to relying on their own Northern Corridor trade route instead since the Georgian Dream party often tries to portray themselves as the Agents of stability between the East and the west and the only thing that stands between the Georgian people and another Russian invasion the Kremlin might also reason that another major intervention into Georgia could serve the purpose of effectively sh in the Georgian population into falling back in line with their own increasingly authoritarian and pro-russian government in the end Georgia's future is a deeply uncertain one right now and it remains to be seen how the country's geography will continue affecting its complicated Destiny between East and West going forward now there's a lot of data that goes into producing these kinds of videos whether it's showing the percentages of Georgians who wish to join the European Union why Russia is so concerned about controlling the greater Caucasus Mountains range how much of the world's oil and gas reserves can be found around the Caspian Sea and how the Europeans and Western energy companies chose to Route their pipelines from the area the ability to visualize raw data like this on the map is exactly what makes learning so fascinating to me and it's why the exploring data visually course is one of my favorite courses that I've ever taken with this video sponsor brilliant.org brilliant.org is a stem learning platform that helps you learn by actually doing they don't 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Channel: RealLifeLore

Views: 533,736

Keywords: real life lore, real life lore maps, real life lore geography, real life maps, world map, world map is wrong, world map with countries, world map real size, map of the world, world geography, geography, geography (field of study), facts you didn’t know

Id: fF6W3VGeBO8

Length: 34min 24sec (2064 seconds)

Published: Thu May 30 2024