Demonetizing Everything: A Post Capitalism World | Peter Diamandis | Exponential Finance

[Music] [Music] we have a lot of impact of Technology and I think at the end of every year or I sort of go back and look at what's happened during the past year and I remember I did this in December of 2016 and I could palpably feel the speed at which things were speeding up and I feel like this is something we're all going to be facing my mom used to say is the world is getting faster and I think that we're living in a time where what is possible is speeding up at such an accelerating rate that it's going to challenge our sense of stability one of the things that's changing as well is the cost of things and so we talk a lot about the notion that technology is going to cause us to lose our jobs lose our income but there is a countervailing force that's going on right now at the same time which is the D monetization of living and I'd like to chat a bit about that and this is more to give you a sense in the feeling of of something that perhaps you already know is happening but to give you a way of looking at the world differently so I believe we're rapidly moving towards a world where all of these things that we use that we need to be alive if you would modulus hierarchy of needs are very rapidly trending towards zero cost and it's going to change capitalism in a very fundamental fashion so there's models for what this looks like and one of the best models believe it or not is the early Star Trek world Gene Roddenberry who created Star Trek viewed that world as being sort of post capitalism where money had very little use very little value until the Ferengi appeared in next generation and screwed that all up but at the end of the day in a world in which technologies like the replicator exists the ability to actually create something and have something where scarcity no longer exists where everything becomes a London changes the whole economic sphere of our world one of the technologies that is sort of in the horizon that's taking us in that direction of course is a whole notion of nanotechnology nanobots and this is where they Eric Drexler Ian's view of the future and I know companies rakers one I advise a company that's working in this specific area and it's extraordinary to see where it can go in a not-too-distant future like the next 20 years 30 years of the outmost where if I have a nano bot and I ask it to replicate itself 500 times and I give you each one of those nanobots you then have the ability to create anything you literally want that is a function of only three things the energy the raw material cost and the cost information and so we're living in a world where you can have a Ferrari a mansion or literally anything for near zero cost so that's sort of if you would the boundary condition that we're heading towards we are in effect heading towards a world where a lot not all things but a lot of the basic things of life are going to be at near marginal cost and a lot of what's driving this is the fact that we have faster cheaper computers that are fundamentally driving a whole slew of technologies and as these tecna's these computers trend towards faster and faster capabilities you've seen this chart a thousand times from Ray Kurzweil book The Singularity is near those technologies are all getting faster and what we're seeing is what I call the six DS of exponential growth that we're going from a world where it used to look like this to a point where everything is becoming D materialized demonetized and democratized and as we D materialize things as things go from hardware to bits and the marginal cost of those replicating those bits is near zero and the marginal cost of transmitting those bits is near zero we end up in a very interesting world so literally if you think about it in the back of abundance I go and I and I add up what the cost of the various applications in my phone were just 20 years ago right video video camera still camera - a video conferencing equipment radio if you would TV through YouTube all of those things and on the average smartphone that you might microfinance in Africa for $50 on that $50 microfinance smartphone is millions of dollars worth of hardware millions of dollars worth of capabilities that we would have paid for just 20 years ago and so we're heading very rapidly towards a world of dematerialization and what I'd like to do is just take a second and look at these different fields to look at how they're being dematerialized and how they're being be monetized so of course in communications and entertainment we've seen a massive amount here are the numbers on communications in 2010 with 1.8 billion people connected on the planet out of roughly 7 billion today it's roughly 3 billion people connected out of roughly 7 1/2 billion by 2020 to 2025 we're going to have the explosion of a number of global networks we've got loon through Google we've got Facebook with drones and satellites we've got one web by Greg Wyler and Richard Branson and Paul Jacobs that's launching a 900 satellite constellation delivering 400 megabits per second worldwide you've got SpaceX Elon Musk filing for four thousand four and twenty five satellite constellation effectively what we're doing over the next you know five to eight years is bringing five billion new consumers online and these five billion new consumers are coming online at a marginal incremental communications cost and they're coming online not like you and I did it you know with AOL and 9600 baud they're coming online at a megabit to a gigabit per second and interestingly enough the question okay they can have connectivity but already going to have these kinds of devices and at the end of the day my expectation is they will and most people will have them for free because there's the cost of these devices get down to ten bucks or twenty bucks unless you have one I can't sell you anything so I'm going to give you one of these devices so that you can buy things from me or the other thing I might get if I give you one of these devices is I get to collect the data I get to collect and understand what you want because data is the new gold so we're heading towards a world of ubiquitous global connectivity where the cost that connectivity in the cost of hardware is marginally approaching zero we also have an entertainment side of course we've had an explosion on YouTube this is 2014 300 hours of video per minute in 2015 a grew to about 500 hours per minute but this is interesting right YouTube today serves up a billion hours of free content per day so we're living in a world where communication is marginally free work and her team is marginally free you heard a great presentation those in the room from Ramez naam and I'll just cover a few of these points but you know we're living in a world where we have 8,000 times more energy hitting the surface of the earth from the Sun than we consume as a species and as it turns out the poorest countries in the world are the sunniest countries in the world an interesting line up there that shouldn't be lost on you and as we look at this you know 2016 the year that renewables were cheaper than coal right coal will not ever recover 25 percent of the world's power last year I came from renewables nations around the world are fully divesting from oil and gas Scotland 106 percent Costa Rica well over a year running on renewables Germany in April hit 85 percent of its electricity from renewables you heard this from her medicines well India only sell electric cars by 2030 as I fly a pilot and as I fly over LA when I look down over LA I don't see the farms of photovoltaics or the farms of solar thermals you see rooftops and you see you see tar and of course what's interesting is that we're going to turn all of those areas into solar collecting right this is a kilometer of solar Road deployed in Normandy and Tesla selling its solar rooftops you saw these numbers the actual number now that Verma is mentioned a 2.4 cents per kilowatt hour and of course to have abundant near free energy you need storage now this is the gigafactory out near reno that's not news but the fact that Ilan's prediction at a hundred of these Giga factories worldwide give us all the storage we need for a fully electric economy is pretty significant let's look at transportation at abundance 360 this year I spent time with Jeff Holden Jeff's a dear friend he's a chief product officer uber previously as a chief product officer at Amazon he's very smart and his prediction is that we'll have fully autonomous ubers on the road within two years this is pilotless driverless fully autonomous ubers and as part of that that electric autonomous cars are ten times cheaper than owning a car so that's a fascinating it's just five times cheaper ten times cheaper all of a sudden becomes something that if you own a Maserati your own a you know a 5 Series BMW you're going to park your car you're going to sell your car you're going to part your car you're not going to use your car because when you have an autonomous like your car that's that much cheaper that's that much more convenient it's like you don't use your oh well most people don't use their old film camera you put that away you're using your cell phone so interestingly enough the question is at what point are we going to see electric autonomous cars displace the cars on the road because I thought for the longest time oil and gas was going to be holding on only because gas cars stuck around for decades at a time but this is a photograph from New York in 1904 and if you look at this you can spot two cars two automobiles on the road and you can I'm going to give you a chance to download all these photos at the end by 1917 it was a hundred percent switchover right we went from horse and buggy to automobiles because the value proposition was so much greater and the question of when that mid point took place well the Model T came out in 1908 four years later we crossed the midpoint and so it's interesting and the prediction right now with you know with Tesla coming out with Ford and GM coming out with lame-o now partnering with Chrysler and with lyft is that by 2025 car ownership will be dead and so when you talk about the D monetization of living all of a sudden you're caught your cost of transportation your cost of owning a car or being chauffeured right forget about owning a car if you you know your cost of being chauffeured around it's coming down tenfold or more I'm on the board of Hyperloop you'll see some amazing news from Hyperloop very soon again just changing the landscape of transportation and of course autonomous aerial taxis right this year we're seeing the birth of the flying car from you know Larry page's passion with alphabet and Kitty Hawk with Airbus with uber so the interesting thing though about autonomous cars and aerial taxis isn't the fact that they're D monetizing transportation which they are they're also going to D monetize housing so I live in Santa Monica and my cost of real estate is extraordinary and if I lived an hour away my cost of a house the same square footage would be ten times less so imagine now that you can live any place right because we've seen this incredible push for people moving into downtown cities right they move in the city because entertainment is there because the the work is there but imagine if you could live an hour away from the city but sleep on your commute in or if you're flying with an aerial transport you're flying in just 15 minutes so all of a sudden we're de monetizing housing because we're living where it's cheaper but still have access downtown cities we're also going to start de monetizing housing because it's going to be cheaper to produce it let me share with you a short video from abundance 360 this year with a beer I can fall on 3d printed houses this is the latest it actually happened in Thailand this is a full sized house being 3d printed in ten hours well and and the speed and performance an intricate design that can be achieved now just boggles the mind and this is at least theater a 10x improvement over what we saw just a year ago so of course labor is D monetizing the labor to do repetitive tasks the labor to stock boxes the labor at the cashier and what we're seeing are robots like this let me just let me run this quick video and we'll talk about a non expert can program and operate the robot they're interacting side-by-side with the robot right into manufacturing for so it's they're directly manipulating the arm and easily training the robot so it's a dramatic expansion of where robots can be used and who can use it this is Baxter and Sawyer and these robots come in at four dollars an hour of costs right so the largest menu largest purchaser of these robots now is China because China wants to maintain itself as a manufacturing base but as labor rates go up the only way to do that is to replace labor by having robots education we're in the midst right now of a 15 million dollar learning XPrize this is 15 million funded by Elon Musk that asks a an Android software package to take a group of children who are completely illiterate and take them from illiteracy to basic reading writing and numeracy in the course of 18 months and my expectation is that in the very near future we're talking at most 10 to 15 years the education of the poorest child in the world and education of the son or daughter of a billionaire delivered by an AI will be the will be equivalent so we're heading towards ad monetization of not just education but the best education delivering the education in the child's language appropriate for their culture appropriate for their background appropriate for what they want to become when they grow up so we're going to see ad monetization of education where instead of education costing us a fortune education is available effectively for free in the long run on the healthcare side we're going to see a massive D monetization of the cost of health care so this is out of Stanford this is Sebastian Thrun slab in which what they built is basically machine learning deep learning protocols that can diagnose dermatological conditions better than dermatologists right so I want you to imagine this is when I have a venture fund both Capital Partners that's partnered with singularity University this is one of the investments we're looking at right this minute but imagine in the near future that when you get into the shower in the morning to go and take a shower you do a spin around like this it captures you and over the course of time it's able to determine whether you have any kind of you know basal cell carcinomas or melanomas whatever it might be of course ai is going to be your diagnostician you know when I went to medical school years ago I remember the moment in time where I thought I had the human body in my brain there's no possible way in the world that any physician is going to be able to keep up with the amount of data being generated hundreds of gigabytes of data per person it's not even feasible and so we're going to see this is of course Watson and this is just about six months ago when Watson was able to diagnose a patient who had a rare form of leukemia that no physician could diagnose and the way that Watson did this is it had ingested 20 million different clinical data sets and it was able to understand her diagnosis in context of 20 million others we just awarded at the XPrize just a few weeks ago the ten million dollar Qualcomm tricorder X Prize this was the winning team a family of physicians brothers at a Philadelphia that came up with a technology called DX ER and the the goal here was a consumer usable system that could diagnose 15 different diseases in the field of continuing health sciences this is the cost of genome sequencing you see Moore's law and white over there and you see that rapidly falling five times the rate of Moore's law for genome sequencing so in 2001 craig Venter sequenced the human genome for a hundred million dollars today the cost is a thousand dollars and a few months ago Illumina the primary company announced its equipment that we'll be sequencing the human genome for $100 in two hours so we're seeing from 2001 to 2017 a million fold decrease again d monetization and genome sequencing and as we all head towards a world where every baby is sequenced when they're born all of us are sequenced and all that phenotypic data is combined with the genome we're going to start to actually predict what you're likely to come down with and stop you from coming down with it in the first place the reason health care is so ridiculously expensive right now is when you walk into the hospital not feeling well and you get diagnosed it's for something that's been going on for months or years and perhaps it's too late to fix it so imagine instead medicine being predictive preventative personalized based on your genome and based on massive datasets so we're going to disrupt and demonetised healthcare by orders of magnitude and of course the final thing is surgery and the idea that we're going to pay you know high-priced human surgeons to go and cut us open is going to be in a nassima right you're going to see a human coming at you're using oh no I do not want that human touching me why any of you ever need surgery of one question to ask how many times have you done this surgery last week that's the number one correlation between the success of a surgeon if you find a surgeon is doing ten surgeries per day that's your woman right that's the person that you want and so when you find a robot operating system that's doing thousands of surgeries per day and that robot is seeing your innards in ultra and you know I in in infrared in my Newton detail and is able to do a surgery perfectly because it seemed every variation and the cost of that surgery is the cost of electricity and the capex that of that robot the cost is going to be monetized in your zero again so I just wanted to share I view the world as rapidly d monetizing I see almost every area I haven't talked about food I haven't talked about a few other areas and we see de monetizing trends there as well but you know if you look at it one of the interesting analogies and I'll close with this slide so this is the slide of when Kodak lost a game right so this is film photography falling off a cliff and we're going to see this with gas cars falling off a cliff as what time let's let your cars take off but you know this is back in 2011 and what's interesting is I projected it forward and the the number last year was 1.2 trillion right so we're going to start to see these kinds of of changes where weirdy monetizing and changing the game around the world if you'd like a copy of the sly if you text to that phone number your email and the keyword demon does the system will read your email and it will read my name last name and send you these slides to your email so I'd love to take a couple of questions for the last six minutes we have I wonder if you could talk a little bit about the social dislocations that may be created by the introduction of all these technology yeah so the big the the big challenge in the room of course is that and so when I think about AI I am not worried about the Terminator I'm not worried about the notion that this advanced intelligence is going to you know try and destroy us I think that's a ridiculous assumption I understand I am worried about the fact that we're going to have a disruption of jobs from AI and robotics and it's not the factory of a disruption of jobs it's the speed at which we're going to have that that change right in in in 1890 I'm sorry in 1800 or 1810 the exact numbers eighty-three percent of Americans were farmers right and today's less than two percent so it's the speed at which we have that so I'm thinking about that a lot I don't have an answer for that I'm concerned that people are going to lose their jobs and while we're going to have I think I think universal basic income is and they come in very strong I think we're going to demonetised the cost of living so that the cost of living not living forever not going to Mars not doing the extraordinary things living being healthy having a great education having access to amazing entertainment all the things that could get would be what a billionaire can do today you know 30 years from now will be basic living I think that we're going to monetize those things but people are going to have there's going to be psychological impacts to losing my persona of when I ask you what do you do you tell me your career tell me your job so how do we connect people and so I've been working with Tony Robbins who's a dear friend and talking about this we have to changed the story about who you are what you stand for what you do but these are these are the challenges we have to face these are the kinds of conversations we talked about internal at singularity university a lot thank you for that another question please in the back there hi there so you mentioned about D monetization and it occurs to me that there are certain things what won't de monetize I mean I see you know your co-living sort of the people that you spend time with on a day-to-day basis do you agree with that and what else do you see is not d monetizing so I that's a great question right it might be a fun conversation over cocktails tonight right where we're seeing the DM a lot of material things to monetize so there's a company for example in Silicon Valley that that I've advised called D foundry that is basically has a machine that in one end comes methane water now electricity at the other end comes perfect diamonds right so we're me we're d monetizing diamonds right you're talking about the eventual potential for $5 a carat we're going to demonetized platinum right one of my companies Planetary Resources if we're able to go and last through those asteroids and bring down the price of platinum like we brought down the price of aluminum used to be worth more than gold and silver until we came up with the ability of of trellises so it's an interesting question I don't know what we're going to either D monetize or change so for example you know the cost of a car is still the cost of a car but when I don't have to when I can timeshare it becomes D monetized Airbnb is d monetizing real estate to some degree or my use of the real estate so there's different stages and different levels of D monetization but it's a great question and one I don't have easy answers for please and then yeah hi Peter thank you so much for your talk part of my question is you're talking about D monetization and automation and and maybe you know what humans might do with all their time but I'd love to hear from you what do you believe to be the critical skill of the future what is going to be a critical skill that we would need to bring into to our future workforce so a great question and I'm asked this as a father I have two six-year-old boys and everybody's like what do you want to teach them what do you want to do and so we're entering into a world where we are all going to have AI software shells I call it a software shell it's an AI that is with you all the time that surrounds you that sees what you see that hears what you hear that reads what you read that is monitoring your body that you give permission to all of these things it's rights Jarvis for Ironman and we're going to have a version of Jarvis within ten years and so ultimately you know it's not about memorizing facts anymore it's not about memorizing things and what I think one of the most important things that we're going to have is the ability to ask great questions so what I focus with my children a lot and I focus with entrepreneurs a lot is asking great questions right it's a critically important skill the other is going to is going to be is going to be curiosity and creativity I think a lot of what we're going to be doing is creating interesting virtual worlds we're all going to be exploring and in the future but ah it's it's going to become one of the other things I think about is this AI becomes a dominant force what is truly human is going to start to become teased out right when you look at the difference and there will there be a difference I don't know time for one last question please so do you see a problem in most alcohols being created by male I'm sorry say that again do you see a problem in most alcohols being created by males most what being created that algorithm algorithms oh uh I don't know um that would be interesting I have no idea I'm all for women to be taking over the show and running reasonably creating algorithms that'd be great the question is going to be did I see a problem when algorithms will be created by a is right Computers programming computers is sort of a thing these days so anyway I chose to talk about this because I think about this a lot I think about the D monetization of living I think about as a countervailing force - loss of jobs partnered with ubi but the psychological part of us humans and us needing to be proud of who we are and what we do and our place in society is one of the questions that we have to address it's not for our kids it's for us this this decade these next 10 years so honor pleasure thank you for joining us here and have a great evening [Applause] [Music]

Channel: Singularity University Summits

Views: 317,982

Rating: 4.7166739 out of 5

Keywords: Singularity, Singularity University, NYC, Conference, Lecture, Exponential Finance, Finance, Exponentials, Peter Diamandis, Demonetization, Capitalism, Impact, Innovation

Id: 3cXPWyP0BBs

Length: 30min 19sec (1819 seconds)

Published: Fri Jul 21 2017

Reddit Comments

[u/yetidogs]

i saw "autonomous aerial taxi services" and lost all interest. Socialism will only come by bicycle - quote from I forget who. Futuristic utopia will not exist. Green energy is not THE answer, less energy (and green energy) is.

[u/[deleted]]

He handles the person who was trying to make his talk about sexism well.