The Future of Work | SingularityU Germany Summit 2017

[Applause] unfortunately I have to begin my presentation with an apology and I know it's going to be a huge disappointment to many of you but unfortunately I have absolutely no PowerPoint slides to share with you today so I understand the disappointment if you want to go outside check email do something productive I completely understand so so my topic today is the future of work and it's certainly a topic that's getting an increasing amount of attention in the news media in conversations and I have to say at least from my experience the topic is dominated by fear and anxiety I think there's increasing fear that all this exponential technology that we've been talking about is going to take away all our jobs and that increasingly we are on in the bullseye of all this technology but no matter what our credentials no matter what our experience machines are eventually going to take all our work so I'm here to say actually I believe that fear is fully justified and I will talk about that but I'm also here to say that that fear tends to overwhelm another discussion and another element of this dimension of the future of work that is not getting attention which I believe needs to which is that actually ultimately this technology these machines can become catalysts to help us restore our humanity and that's an incredible opportunity so I'm going to talk a little bit about both the fear and the opportunity on the fear side I would say that to understand the potential risk and challenge here we need to understand the institutional context that we operate in around the world we have developed institutions and I'm when I talk about institutions I'm not just talking about companies I'm talking about governments I'm talking about schools NGOs all our institutions have been built globally a round of model of scalable efficiency that model indicates that the reason we have institutions to begin with is because it is easier and lower cost to coordinate activities across a large number of individuals if they're all within one institution rather than scattered across many institutions and that model has actually driven global institutions for decades if not centuries but it's interesting to see how in that model of scalable efficiency work has come to be defined in the model of scaleable efficiency the way we achieve efficiency is to define work first of all as tightly defined tasks the tasks get minutely defined in advance they become highly standardized they need to be done exactly the same efficient way wherever they're done within the institution and then again in the name of scaleable efficiency we've tightly integrated all those tasks we've eliminated all those inefficient buffers that separate the tasks that's been the model of scalable efficiency tightly specified highly standardized tightly integrated tasks well guess what if that's what work is machines can do that so much more efficiently than we human beings can they don't get distracted they don't get sick they do it efficiently and predictably and if that's what work is it is only a matter of time before it's all taken from us and I know there are all kinds of studies done that show that well forty seven percent of work or twenty eight percent of work is vulnerable to automation I'm here to tell you if that's what work is 100 percent of that work will be automated so and just to add to some of the bad news there there's a lot of talk in the future of work about the gig economy this notion of independent contractors doing short-term work as gigs brothers in the US I in the period from 2005 to 2015 94% of net job creation was in the gig economy significant portion of work and an increasing portion of work being done by the gig economy but again it's interesting to note that most of the gig work at least to date has been relatively routine tasks the classic model is the uber driver the mobile fleet operator driver translation services bookkeeping services all of these fun things done as a gig work well again if that's what the gig economy is those routine tasks they're all going to be taken to we've talked earlier about autonomous vehicles what happens to that driver in the autonomous vehicle all of that work will be taken so what's the answer I mean it may be meaningful that this talk is given in the week of May first we could all head to the barricades fight the machine resist the machine I'd like to say that actually we ought to resist that temptation that in fact we ought to think about how we can use this technology as a catalyst to help us redefine work in ways that actually restore our humanity and ask the fundamental question which is what is work that we humans are uniquely positioned and qualified to perform what could that work be and how could we develop that over time and what I mean by that is work that requires curiosity creativity imagination emotional intelligence social intelligence work that we human beings are really qualified to perform but which actually is highly discouraged in the environment of scalable efficiency creativity imagination your tasks have been predefined perform them as defined do not deviate be predictable so I think the opportunity is to rethink work at a fundamental level and to really nurture and expand that kind of work so that more and more of us can be focused on that as a way to earn a living now I will say that when I articulate this position I encounter two fundamental objections very strongly held objections by the people who have them the first is we'll wait a minute come on John be realistic not all of us are capable of being creative and imaginative most of us just want to be told what to do and have the security and reliability of a paycheck if we do what's expected of us I would push back on that objection and take anyone who has that objection to a playground and let's go watch six and seven year old children playing show me one of them that doesn't have curiosity creativity imagination show me one we all had that at one point in our lives something's happened to most of us as we went through life and I would argue that what happened to us was we got introduced institutions starting with schools where the instruction was very clear listen to the teacher take good notes and play it back when asked predictably and reliably and if you want imagination or creativity there's a playground outside when you're out there you can do what you want but when you're in here you do what you're told and I will tell you at least from my study in the u.s. of the u.s. public school system that institutional framework is not accidental it was deliberately designed to take children from rural areas farms and train them how to be factory workers to follow instructions predictably and reliably in a world of scalable efficiency so we have lost that but I believe we all have not only the ability but the desire to recapture that as suppressed as it might be by us and by our institutions we all have that capability and by the way when I talk about created of an imaginative work often people think about well you're talking about becoming a research scientist no I'm not actually most of the work that I see emerging in this world that's evolving around us this exponential world has to do with things like becoming craftspeople you've heard a lot of talk about some of the exponential technologies that I believe are going to lead to the end of the mass market production systems we have around the world and we're increasingly the demand is going to be four unique crafts that are highly creative and artistic woodwork pottery you name it but something that is highly creative and unique there's going to be a tremendous opportunity for work in that space coaches there's a whole category of work that I describe as coaches we all are going to want to achieve more of our potential wellness coaches coaches in terms of talent development achieving more building more of our talents and having more impact coaching and then a third category of work that I call composers and by this I don't mean music composers although that could be part of it but it's composing experiences that will give others a richer and fuller and more enjoyable life I'm struck for example by the evolution in Airbnb one of the things that Airbnb is focused on is in helping their hosts not just to provide an accommodation that is reliable but to create an experience for the guests that is unique and really enjoyable for that guest so composers of experiences and again I believe we all have the potential to occupy one of those opportunity areas so I'm excited about that opportunity the other objection that I get is not just that people aren't capable of doing that kind of work but on the other side I get the objection while there's very limited demand for that kind of work there may be a few people who want these kinds of coaches and composers and craftspeople but it's very limited work opportunity there's going to be very limited demand I would actually counter that and argue that in fact we as human beings have an insatiable demand all of us to achieve far more of our potential and have far more impact in the world around us and that especially is the products the basics of life become more affordable as a result of a lot of this technology exponential technology and automation as these things because we focus more on access versus ownership of a lot of the property that we need in our lives we're going to have more disposable income to spend on things that actually can help us achieve more of our potential and have more impact in our lives and I believe again that demand is insatiable so I see expanding opportunity in terms of that kind of work so I believe we're all capable of that kind of work and I believe there's going to be a growing an insatiable demand for that kind of work so I see that as the opportunity ahead to use this technology as a catalyst to make that transition now I don't want to argue that this is going to be a simple transition I actually believe at best it's going to be very challenging and a worse that can be a very painful transition and I think it's challenging in part because of the institution's we have today if we're going to make this transition we need to reframe at a fundamental level innovation innovation is talked about everywhere present company excluded but innovation when we talk about it tends to get reduced very quickly to product innovation or technology innovation sometimes will talked about service innovation process innovation sometimes even business model innovation I want to suggest there's a much more fundamental level of innovation which is not yet on our agenda but needs to be and it's what I call institutional innovation it's going back to the most fundamental question of all which is why do we have institutions and I mentioned earlier the institutions we have today are all driven by that model of scalable efficiency that rationale of scalable efficiency I would make the case that if we really understand the impact of all this exponential technology that rationale is becoming less and less compelling it is far easier to connect with and coordinate activity across a large number of people where / they are but my belief is in an exponentially changing world there's a new rationale for institutions that will be very compelling in the future and drive impact for all institutions and it has to do with what I described as scaleable learning not scalable efficiency the reason we will come together in large institutions in the future is because we'll learn faster as part of those institutions than we ever could on our own or as part of a smaller organization or institution that is a fundamentally different rationale and I can't tell you the number of executives I run into when I talk about scalable efficiency and scaleable learning they say to me wow that's really interesting we'll do both scalable efficiency and scalable learning in the spirit of provocation I want to make the case that actually these two are fundamentally in opposition with each other you can't have both you have to choose which is it going to be think about the scaleable efficiency world what's the key message in a scaleable efficiency world failure is not an option we need predictability and reliability you deliver as predicted as expected do not fail guess what learning demands failure but it's not an option so tell me again how we're going to do scalable learning in this kind of environment and then think again about the environment we've created tightly specified activities highly standardized activities tightly integrated activities where's the room to experiment to improvise to innovate to learn there is no room everything has been tightly defined it's the reason why when I talk to executives about learning the answer is sure we have learning we have a training room over there we'll take you out of your work environment we'll send you over there you can learn all you want and come back and do your job as expected guess what my belief based on the research we've done is the most powerful and effective learning occurs day to day on the job in the work environment not in a training room and actually I would make the case the training rooms or training programs are going to become more and more irrelevant in an exponential world because the kind of learning that's going to be most valuable and necessary to create value in an exponential world is learning that involves creating new knowledge not sitting listening to some instructor give us knowledge that already is available it's creating new knowledge through action in the workplace dealing with unexpected situations that's a very different form of learning and our institutions are totally unequipped today to support that kind of learning and yet if we're going to make this transition we need to reinvent our institutions innovate at the institutional level to drive that kind of scaleable learning opportunity and I'll just say as another note in terms of the challenge of the transition if you take what I've just said seriously it involves fundamental transformation of organizations this isn't just some kind of incremental change on the margin this is fundamental everything changes in terms of how we operate how we organize how we reward motivate people everything changes large-scale organizational transformation is hugely challenging I've been involved in large-scale transformation efforts for over 30 years and the one thing that I have developed as a result of all that experience is an extraordinary respect for the immune system and the antibodies that exist in every large existing institution do not underestimate that immune system and it's one of the reasons why I've become hugely skeptical of the classic approach to transformation which is somebody comes to gathering like this gets conviction we need to transform they go in front of their leadership team they announce we're going to transform we're going to change everything and because we're a large organization this is going to take a long time can't turn around the battleship overnight and because this is a large organization it's going to take a lot of money you can't do this on a shoestring but trust me at the end of all that wonderful things will happen in my experience what that individual has just done is put a bull's-eye on their back and invited the immune system to come out and attack a lot of money where's that money coming from a long time we have quarterly performance pressure today can't afford to think about the long term and they mobilize to crush and I will say certainly the academic studies that have been done around large-scale transformation efforts suggest there's an extraordinarily high failure rate in those efforts it's why over time I've come to believe that there's a different approach to transformation that has much more potential and that honors that immune system it's something that we call scaling edges and it says rather than coming in top-down and trying to transform the existing core of the business of the institution instead find an edge that today is a relatively modest part of the organization or institution but if you understand the exponential forces that are playing out in your relevant markets or environments that edge has the potential to scale to the point where it could become the new core of your institution not just the diversification and a side thing but actually could become the new core of the institution and focus the transformation through scaling that edge and over time rather than trying to take that edge and push it back into the core to become a catalyst for change no keep scaling the edge and over time pull more and more of the people and resources from the core out into that edge to the point where it becomes the new core of the institution in my experience that actually significantly reduces the potential of the immune system to come after the effort and because of the exponential technologies and changes that we've been talking about there is an opportunity to scale those edges at a far more rapid pace today than was ever feasible 20-30 years ago and to actually do it with far less resource by leveraging the scaling edge initiatives by mobilizing third parties to support the scaling of your edge very different approach to organizational transformation so I guess I've been a very brief period of time I've been talking about the notion of the future of work on the one hand the view that the technology that we're developing not only has the potential but will take the work that we have today and make it done by machines but that ultimately this can become a catalyst to help us reimagine what work could be and restore our humanity to find work that his work that we should be doing rather than defining work in ways that try to make us into machines no find work that can help us achieve more of our potential express more of our individuality and achieve far more impact and by the way one of the key phrases today is this notion of using technology to augment humans I want to suggest yes there's a significant opportunity there but a key element in this new model of work that I'm talking about is humans augmenting other humans finding ways for us to work together in ways that will help us to learn faster together and achieve far more of our potential that to me is the opportunity and I'll just say in finishing that I started my career many many years ago with a firm called Boston Consulting Group BCG and at BCG many many years ago oversimplification they made their reputation on one chart it was called the experience curve and it was a way to describe how performance improves over time in a market or industry and they started by looking at the semiconductor industry it but not the performance of the chip but the operating performance of a business semiconductor business over time it followed a very predictable path consistent and predictable path and over time they applied that analysis to a whole range of other markets and industries everything from Japanese beer to toilet paper and this experience curve played out in all those markets and industries very accurate and perceptive description of how performance improves the issue with it is it is a diminishing returns curve the more experience you get in a marketer industry the longer and harder you have to work to get that next increment of performance that's the scalable efficiency model it works my belief is if we take this technology seriously and use it as a catalyst to redefine work for the first time we can create a business environment where there's an increasing returns curve where the more of us who joined together the more and more value we can create together thank you very much I think we have a couple of minutes and then after this you would be I'll be here at Lima yeah well happy to take some questions where's the microphone questions one other back over there thank you very much for this very inspiring talk and I wonder you're talking about the respect you've developed for this immune system I'm having some frustration you've developed throughout the years because working in a similar field not having your amount of years I feel very much frustrated in trying to infuse the transformation you are talking about so I wonder how do you see this trend of having all those innovation labs and digital labs that are probably the edges outside organizations that are trying to scale up many times throughout our research interviews that we've been conducted at the balancing reduces people are really frustrated by them absorb this capacity that is expected to exist back into the organization right so how do you scale those labs and innovation places outside organization in a way that they can actually function and grow I'm not leaving the mothership right and with all the problems that come with it yeah how do you do that thing oh great question I will say I'm in Silicon Valley I've been in Silicon Valley for over 35 years and if you go up and down the streets of Silicon Valley I can guarantee that virtually every large company around the world has an Innovation Lab in Silicon Valley almost guaranteed and I've know many of the people in those innovation labs in fact the co-chairman of the center the research center that Iran man by the name of John Seely Brown for several decades was the leader of Xerox's Palo Alto Research Center one of the classic Innovation Lab institutions I will say again broad generalization that from the innovation leaders that I know there is an unstated understanding between the heads of the innovation labs in the core of the business which is we're going to give you some money and some people to play with just remember one thing don't ever come back because if you do we're going to kill you and these are completely rational people they understand they do what they want off on this side and they don't come back and that leads to the challenge and I would say that from my viewpoint the key to getting impact from those efforts first of all is to focus them on one thing I think one of the issues with innovation labs is you get all kinds of little experiments focus on one edge that has the potential to scale and find somebody at the senior leadership of the core one person it doesn't have to be the whole leadership team but one person who is willing to fly air cover and protect that edge and find a way for it to scale without coming back into the core because if it comes back into the core it will be killed so thank you second question over there Andy hi John hey this year so what do you think is the role of the real love the leader in this whole thing and as we have a lot of leaders here today and especially you know we want to talk about what's the role of the sea level what's the sea level with the board supposed to do about this man not easy it's not easy right that's a whole other presentation you know in short form I would say for from my experience the the role of the board and the leaders first of all is to find ways to pull out of the short term I think what we're we've become strong advocates of an approach that we call zoom out zoom in approach to strategy which is focus on a 10 to 20 year horizon and get alignment around a shared view of what is the future of our business going to look like 10 to 20 years from now and then zoom in and ask the question in the next 6 to 12 months 6 to 12 months what are the two or three business initiatives that we could pursue that could accelerate our movement towards that longer-term destination in our experience that's a very powerful vehicle for getting alignment around a long term destination and very pragmatic short term impact driven actions that will drive growth and impact in the core business and one of the one of the elements of that zoom out zoom in if it's done right is it is very helpful in that zoom out piece in identifying an edge that today is relatively modest and minor but if you understand the long term forces and the destination you're shooting for actually has the potential to become the new core and that can become one of those short-term initiatives is start that edge initiative so I think that's that's the key key issue I think for leaders and I will say that from my experience one of the ways I characterize the move from scaleable efficiency to scaleable learning is in scalable efficiency world the mark of a strong leader is somebody who has all the answers no matter what the question the leader has the answer my belief in the world of scaleable learning the most powerful and effective leaders are going to be the ones who have the best and most powerful questions not the answers and by the way I can't resist the quote one of my favorite quotes from Pablo Picasso who once made the comment who said computers are useless all they have are answers I think what we need are the questions thank you thank you John don't hate it

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Keywords: john hagel, deloitte center for the edge, technology, future of work, business opportunity, singularity university, future, futurism

Id: qQ55_tsvARU

Length: 34min 8sec (2048 seconds)

Published: Thu Aug 17 2017