Will Trump Beat Biden? | Victor Davis Hanson

Victor it appears that most of the polls have Trump convincingly ahead of Biden as preferred president uh that may well narrow in the lead up to the election and it may very well be influenced by The Never Ending lawfare but in your views we sit here now some months out with this election that is so critical for America and the rest of the world what are you thinking will decide this election will will it basically come out down to who can get their hard your supporters out and what what role might uh RFK Mr Kennedy play in it all yeah there's about 4 five uh deciding points one of them of course is the third party third parties never win but they as we learned in the case of George HW Bush in 1988 um excuse me 1992 and then of course he ran uh Ross perau ran again in 96 and he may have affected that second election uh Bill Clinton won two terms without winning 50% of the vote so this time we've got Jill Stein who could get one or two% Cornell West who could get one or two% and RFK Jr who could get maybe nine to 15% and the problem the Biden Administration has is that all of those people are are identified with the left uh RFK is more so than he was earlier uh he's at Din find more and more with the left and he's trying to make a deal with Biden that one of them would drop out so that's going to hurt I think is the as the cycle wears on it's going to hurt Biden and it shows up in the polls where suddenly this one or two point difference in the National polls is has expanded to 6 to 10 depending on the particular poll and then in the key swing states that will determine the Electoral College Trump is usually ahead in all of them and maybe even in Pennsylvania so that's one thing and then of course getting out the vote we went into a revolutionary cycle that you and I have talked about where suddenly in 2020 70% of the people didn't vote on Election Day with an ID they voted through mail and early balloting and that favors the Democrats and because they control the big cities they control the balloting they get they raised over a billion dollars to supplant the work of the regist stws and some key States that's something that will determine if the de if the Republicans can in swing States get 40 or 50% to vote actually on Election Day and will the other thing that no one knows John is that in these big cities Pittsburgh uh in the swing States Philadelphia Detroit um Tucson Phoenix Las Vegas Reno uh Atlanta there's a lot of uh these are tend to be minority majority States in some cases and unlike 202 there's now polls that show 25% of the African-American vote as much as 50% of of the so-called Hispanic vote might go Trump and those are the precisely the people who are in those big cities and positions of voter responsibility as far as the balloting goes and so you might have a lot of eyes and ears that you didn't have in 2020 that are invested more to make sure that Donald Trump has an a transparent balloting count than you did in 2020 the other big thing is the the known unknowns is these riots unlike the 2020 that went on for four months uh you don't hear Camala Harris this time around saying these riots are not going to stop these demonstrations are not going to stop shouldn't stop they're going to go all the election because unlike 2020 the N party uh is not antithetical to the protesters so Donald Trump was trying to stop them and he said these are left-wing protests and the left came back to him as Joe Biden famously remarked and said you're you're you're the president the president is responsible no matter what well now it's it's very different that the in party the protesters are on their side side so there's nobody saying there's a bunch of right-wing people that Biden can't control they're saying these are your people these are the people you empathize with unlike 2020 when they were protesting against Trump and now it's your responsibility so we don't know what it's going to happen because school is going to be out in a week or two and it's going to be out I think the Israelis are sort of timing their entry into Gaza on the expectation that Western campuses will be shut down for summer break and they won't have the same degree of influence the protesters on their governments as they do now but we don't know if that's true so we'll see if these protests can re rekindle when there's not an open student body uh at on in Residence at these at these campuses and then we don't know finally what the situ a will be with Donald Trump he's only halfway through uh two of four so he still has a Rondevu with Fanny Willis and Jack Smith and we don't know whether the out the sear outrageousness of the prosecutors and they they're not doing very well in court but they're in blue cities with blue judges and blue juries and blue prosecutors so we don't know what will be the ultimate effect right now we do know that it is helping Donald Trump and people are outraged at this miscarriage of justice but we don't know if he should be jailed taken off the campaign Trail psychologically physically exhausted uh subject to gag orders or even jailing what will be the effect on the swing voters will they say oh my God this is terrible what they're doing to I'm going to vote for Biden or it's terrible what they're doing to him but my God he's a president he I I can't vote for a president in jail we've never done that before so that's a Known Unknown we just don't know what the reaction is going to be by November [Music]

Channel: John Anderson Media

Views: 788,118

Keywords: John Anderson, John Anderson Conversation, Interview, John Anderson Interview, Policy debate, public policy, public debate, John Anderson Direct, Direct, Conversations

Id: cyQFmN7Ex1k

Length: 6min 43sec (403 seconds)

Published: Mon May 20 2024