Why the US is NOT afraid of the largest Navy in the world, yet

just over a decade ago China had zero aircraft carriers but today it has three in the water China now possesses the largest Navy in the world with over 340 warships that include cutting-edge destroyers and Cruisers in contrast the U.S Navy has just over 280 ships ready to deploy on top of that the people's Liberation Army Navy or plan is on track to add another 70 warships by 2030 compared to the U.S Navy's best case scenario of adding just 42. the scale of the Chinese military buildup IS enormous for reference just one jiangjang chanching Shipyard in Shanghai is larger than all seven U.S naval shipyards combined here's the smaller Dalian Shipyard in China which is building five destroyers at the same time compare that to the United States which can barely build two Arleigh Burke destroyers per year but here's the caveat it's not all gloom and doom for now yes China has more warships but they are much smaller in fact the median U.S Navy ship the Arleigh Burke class destroyer displaces up to 9 500 tons while the median plan ship which is a type 54 frigate displaces about 4 000 tons combined the U.S Navy Fleet weighs about four and a half million tons while the Chinese Mighty Fleet weighs just over 2 million tons but bigger is not always better it sometimes is similarly when it comes to these aircraft carriers they are not as scary as you might think which makes you wonder what is the real purpose of these three Chinese aircraft carriers why is China building fake American aircraft carriers in the middle of a desert and creating artificial islands in the middle of a sea and more importantly why during a Chinese invasion of Taiwan war game the United States always loses its two aircraft carriers is not what you think China's Fleet of aircraft carriers currently consists of two active carriers one under construction and at least one more plant the sixty thousand ton type 1 Chinese aircraft carrier liaoning is actually the ex-soviet aircraft carrier variac with China bought from Ukraine under the pretext of converting it into an amusement park to be fair China did indeed buy an older kiev-class aircraft Cruiser which it did use as a theme park between 2000 and 2016. nevertheless when it comes to varyag after a decade of refurbishments China commissioned her in 2012 with an airwing of up to 34 aircraft 24 of those aircraft are j-15s which are basically reverse engineered clones of the Russian su-33 just like her Russian half-sister the Admiral kuznetsov leoning relies on short takeoff barrier-assisted recovery known as stobar to perform rolling launches of its j-15 fighters from a ski ramp that's in contrast to the catapults used by the U.S Navy [Music] the type 2 Shandong aircraft carrier is a domestically produced copy of the kuznips of class carrier as she incorporates Lessons Learned From The liaoning Experience Shandong is slightly larger than liaoning up to 10 000 tons heavier as she can handle up to 40 aircraft including 36 j-15s the third aircraft carrier the type 3 fujian was laid down in 2016 and launched in the summer of 2022 she's even larger than Shandong with a displacement of 80 000 tons but more importantly fujian would be the first Chinese flat top with catapults and not just regular catapults but three electromagnetic catapults similar to the ones pioneered on the American Ford class aircraft carriers the ship is expected to be operational as early as 2024 and will carry a new catapult capable version of the j-15 fighter and a new stealthy j31 which is often referred to as j35 moreover the Chinese are rumored to be developing the Type 4 aircraft carrier design which would be as big as the American super carriers with a displacement of 100 000 tons featuring nuclear propulsion in total it's believed that the Chinese are planning to procure as many as six aircraft carriers in the near future but how did the Chinese carriers stack up against the American supercarriers the currently commission liaoning and Shandong carriers are almost half the size of the American Nimitz and fourth class super carriers and can carry only half as many aircraft that are routinely embarked on the American flat tops even fujian would be 20 smaller when it comes to an aircraft carrier bigger is better only Nimitz and Ford class carriers have sufficient deck space and support facilities to operate aircraft 24 7 over a Target area moreover because liaoning and Shandon use a ski jump to launch aircraft those Fighters are severely limited by their takeoff weight this means they can carry less Fuel and less weapons compared to their American counterparts another current limitation of the Chinese aircraft carriers is that they are conventionally powered this means that they cannot operate independently of their slow-moving Fleet of Oilers additionally being nuclear powered would free up space on the deck and hanger for more airplanes because they don't need bulky air intakes and exhausts but maybe the biggest limitation of the current Chinese carriers is that they cannot launch heavier airplanes like the E2 Hawkeye early warning aircraft like the E2 are extremely important because when flying at altitude their radar can see at least three times farther than the Aegis radar on a cruiser or Destroyer this is due to the curvature of the earth which limits the range of ship-based Radars when attempting to detect low altitude or Surface targets Beyond the Horizon oh we lost two subscribers must have been flat earthers the advantage of looking down on the battle space greatly improves situational awareness especially when it comes to early detection of Airborne threats as a result the Chinese have to instead rely on land-based airplanes for surveillance or z18 helicopters equipped with a 360 degree Airborne radar that said the z18s cannot operate for long periods of time or at high altitudes which reduces their radar range and that severely degrades battle space awareness nevertheless fujian and the future nuclear carriers are steadily on the course to match American supercarrier capabilities catapults would allow fujian to launch heavy aircraft such as kj-600 Airborne early warning and control aircraft it looks awfully similar to the American E2 Hawkeye doesn't it but realistically to match American capabilities it would take China many many years just the electromagnetic catapults alone which took the Americans over a decade to perfect will be a big challenge for the Chinese but you have to go beyond the number of ships number of aircraft and weapon ranges to understand the potential threats because what really matters is operational capability and geometry in other words expertise carrier operations is no easy task and China has to figure out all that by itself and do it fast the US Navy has operated aircraft carriers for over a century and China for just over a decade China knows that they know little and they are extremely risk-averse when it comes to carrier operations in fact China is yet to suffer a major Flight Deck incident they know that American Mastery of carrier operations came at the High Cost of aircraft and lives even though China won't admit it Reuters reviewed dozens of Articles published in state-linked journals which reveal awareness among Chinese military analysts about shortcomings in the country's carrier capabilities there is still a huge gap between sailor training levels and combat requirements the article elaborates by highlighting that the Chinese carriers do not routinely conduct Flight Deck operations at night or in adverse weather like the Americans do and as far as news reporting goes multiple other center-leaning news agencies have echoed Reuters and we can see this effortlessly using ground news leoning and Shandong are just training carriers so will be fujian that is their true purpose it's interesting to see that this story is not being covered by Chinese or even American sources that's why I'm a huge fan of using ground news in one place we're able to get International perspectives on stories like this that otherwise would not even be on our radar for example I've been following news on aircraft and drones to get notifications on the latest breaking stories from all around the world at a time when algorithms Drive the information available to us ground news goes out of their way to show all sides of every story so go to ground.news nwit and sign up or subscribe through our link before August 1st to get 30 off unlimited access and support a small team of media Outsiders working to make the news more transparent for you while domestic Chinese news agencies proclaimed that their aircraft carriers intensive aircraft sorties are evidence of a high combat capability a close examination of the recent exercises reveal a different picture the Japan Maritime self-defense Force provides excellent public reporting on how the Chinese Navy is operating in the East China Sea and the Philippine Sea according to these reports Chinese aircraft carriers always operate in the range of diversion airfields as backups as opposed to Blue Water operations Bluewater Ops means that aircraft can only take off from the carrier and land back on the same carrier as would be outside the range of diversion air fuels or aerial refueling True Blue Water Ops are a high risk Endeavor because the only option is one hundred percent onboard recovery or losing an aircraft according to the Japanese data in 2021 and 2022 leoning conducted fixed-wing flight operations between 300 to 740 nautical miles from a diversion Airfield the j15 has a high altitude Transit range of more than 1600 nautical miles which allows it to safely make it back to an Airfield even with 50 fuel remaining furthermore most of the time the j15 would fly clean or with very few light air-to-air missiles in order to maximize its fuel reserves in case of a diversion and reduce overall risk to the carrier operations in May 2022 leoning conducted 300 aircraft sorties during its deployment it averaged fewer than 20 fighter sorties per day China declared it as a decent number of sorties for training for reference around the same time USS Gerald R Ford set a record of completing 170 sorties in eight and a half hours of training only in December 2022 the Chinese carrier liaoning finally conducted its first True Blue Water operations as they were conducting flight operations just west of Guam at a time the carrier was 1300 nautical miles away from any diversion Airfield but what does China want well the short story is that beside getting Taiwan they want to be a true superpower the long story is that the Chinese have outlined a series of goals with the main one being to achieve a strong Democratic civilized harmonious and modern socialist country by 2049 to celebrate the Centenary of the founding of People's Republic of China furthermore China has outlined specific goals for its military which should become world-class by 2049. China has not defined what it means by world class but it is likely that the Chinese will seek to develop a military equal to or in some cases superior to the American Military Chinese leadership viewed divided China as a weak China they argue that full reunification including the resolution of the Taiwan question and completing Hong Kongs and macau's integration by the end of 2049 is one of the fundamental conditions of national rejuvenation China aims to attain National Rejuvenation between 2035 and 2049. president Xi Jinping is pushing his military to increase the realism of training so they can prepare to fight and win Wars during March 2023 the Chinese president gave four speeches saying he is preparing for war the question is if China is ready to invade Taiwan the most probable answer will soon be yes note that experts agree that it's doubtful that China is actively seeking conflict with the west but they continue to push the envelope to the point of Confrontation without crossing the line to war China understands that the United States has established itself as a global Maritime superpower as China aims for a superpower status it must be able to challenge America's dominance at sea as a result the plan's overall Battle Force is expected to grow to 400 ships by 2024 and 440 ships by 2030. much of this growth will be in major surface combatants China is expanding its Naval capabilities but not in the same way as the United States Navy they are not trying to replicate it instead they're emphasizing Naval capabilities for long-range supersonic Maritime attack and nuclear-powered submarines to neutralize American supercarriers as a result they are seeking the ultimate Naval Weapon anti-ship ballistic missiles or asbn the most important requirement for asbm is to have accuracy to make a direct hit on a moving Target at a prescribed angle of impact to penetrate the carrier's armor the precise angle of impact is essential for the effectiveness of the asbm Warhead in April 2022 a video emerged of a yj-21 ship launch ballistic missile which is the Ultimate anti-ship Weapon since it's the most difficult to intercept the Chinese have even built fake American aircraft carriers in the middle of a desert one of them on a rail line which are believed to be practice targets for the Chinese df-21 asbms China claims sovereignty over their Spradley and Paracel Islands and other land features within its ambiguous self-proclaimed 9-line in the South China Sea these Chinese claims are disputed in whole or part by Brunei the Philippines Malaysia and Vietnam the South China Sea plays an important role in security considerations across East Asia because Northeast Asia relies heavily on the flow of oil and commerce through South China Sea shipping lanes including more than 80 percent of the crude oil to Japan South Korea and Taiwan besides building three aircraft carriers that China says will defend its sea routes China has also built at least three artificial islands in the South China Sea which are fully militarized with anti-air and anti-ship weapons fighter jets and jamming equipment in the past the Chinese had assured that they will not transform artificial Islands in contested Waters into military bases clearly this video footage shows a different story the American strategy with regards to Taiwan is deterrence conflicts should be avoided at any cost as they can result in a nuclear Exchange this deterrence can only be achieved through having a large force of super carriers insufficient numbers to achieve air superiority in theater Maritime with squadrons of the most advanced fighter attack aircraft but with this deterrence work in January 2023 the center for strategic and International Studies conducted a war game for a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan and ran it 24 times for a variety of scenarios in most cases the United States along with Taiwan and Japan managed to defeat the Chinese but it came at a tremendous cost of losing dozens of ships hundreds of aircraft and tens of thousands of service members it is worth noting that even under epistemistic scenario the United States was able to protect Taiwan China achieved total Victory only if the United States did not intervene here's the interesting part in all iterations of the base case scenario the United States lost two super carriers that happened when the carrier strike groups exhausted their magazines of interceptors after multiple large salvos of modern Chinese anti-ship missiles targeted them the war game analysis acknowledges that carrier losses were partially an artifact of the U.S Navy for deploying them to vulnerable positions of Okinawa in order to deter China besides super carriers the US would typically lose anywhere between 7 to 20 major warships such as destroyers and cruisers in contrast China would lose on average 138 ships of which 86 were amphibious and 52 were major surface warships interestingly the war game analysis concluded that the relative strength of the U.S and Chinese air-to-air capability was unimportant because 90 percent of all lost aircraft were destroyed on the ground as a result of Chinese missile attacks on Okinawa and Guam one striking Revelation was that until China exhausted all its anti-ship ballistic missiles it will be too dangerous for U.S and Japanese ships to approach Taiwan essentially it would be a long-range missile War Whoever has the most missiles wins according to the result of the war game the U.S should prioritize bombers with long-range missiles over fighter aircraft shift to smaller more survivable ships submarines and Hypersonic weapons the war game said nothing about Chinese aircraft carriers of course if a chinese carrier strike group operates east of Taiwan during the start of the attack they face multiple risks such as coordinated multi-axis attack which they may not survive this means that in a crisis one site may want to shoot first in order to retain their advantage in fact as recently as mid-april 2023 the Chinese conducted a war game on their own where they positioned their aircraft carrier Shandong east of Taiwan and conducted a mock-up attack to see how Taiwan would respond when faced with threats approaching from both East and West sites foreign Navy is developing at a very fast pace which is alarming for the Americans what is equally alarming is the modern anti-ship ballistic missiles such as df-21 Chinese aircraft carriers are still in their infancy while they get more comfortable with their aircraft carrier operations be it Flight Deck operations corrosion control or firefighting protocols arguably the most limiting factor is Personnel so Chinese aircraft carriers are not really a threat for now but they're in it for the long game it won't be until the next generation of carriers that China really settles down on Carrier capabilities as tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea and the surrounding regions the balance of power between China and the United States will play a crucial role in determining the future dynamics of Global Security the evolving Naval capabilities of both countries and their approach to deterrence will shape the trajectory of potential conflicts but the question of how effective deterrence will be in maintaining peace and stability in the region remains to be seen

Channel: Not What You Think

Views: 3,019,387

Keywords: not what you think, type001, type002, type003, cvn, nimitz class, ford class, aircraft carrier, china navy, plan, destroyer, cruiser, frigate, corvette, military, navy, taiwan, ABSM, anti ship ballistic missile, DF-21, DF-21D, SM-3, SM-6, wargame

Id: cfyRo32r9aA

Length: 22min 36sec (1356 seconds)

Published: Fri Jul 07 2023