War with China: Are we closer than we think? | Under Investigation

[Music] war with china it sounds unthinkable but according to many experts the countdown may be on china's president xi jinping is shaping up to the west like never before and just last week a major new military alliance was announced between the us australia and the uk to counter chinese aggression in the pacific the first major initiative of orcas will be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for australia america and its allies are preparing for a battle we didn't think was possible the idea that china would never attack even never invade well i wouldn't count on that xi jinping is already on a collision course with his own people from recently outlawing boy bands to enforcing propaganda lessons in primary schools xi jinping is taking control and he's prepared to fight for it even beyond his homeland if this unimaginable conflict were to happen it would begin with an invasion of taiwan a tiny nation off its coast that china has long believed is these once they make the decision to do this they will come full bore like a crazy man with an axe control of taiwan would give china a huge new military reach over the pacific that would put australia in the firing line pretty quickly but is australia putting itself in the firing line by talking too tough to china it is very dangerous to frame china is like worse than darth vader tonight we investigate just how close to war we really are the question of whether or not to go to war may well end up getting decided for us so is this resistance futile we should not to borrow a phrase from game of thrones bend the knee to beijing good evening i'm liz hayes and this is under investigation [Music] joining me tonight five experts who each bring a lifetime's experience to their views on war with china we've got to ask ourselves the question do you want your children or their children to live in an authoritarian world where democracy is on the ash heap of history and states no longer have freedom of speech freedom of thought or is democracy worth defending [Music] china has been preparing for war for at least three decades its whole military modernization has largely been aimed towards having a war over taiwan [Music] i think that war with china should be unthinkable and should remain unthinkable because when we talk about war with china we're talking about the potential for a level of casualties and destruction that this country has certainly never experienced and would be devastating for people across asia [Music] i do think it is very dangerous to frame china as completely evil only benevolent yes there is a bad china where china does things that we find unacceptable but i think it's really important for australia to accept that there is also a good china there are things that china does and can do that are for the benefit of the world [Music] clinton fernandez you would uh argue that it's time for ordinary australians to be aware of this absolutely i think it's very important that this debate occur i'm glad it's occurring here war is an extremely serious matter it will shape the destiny of the world for the next 75 years [Music] there's no doubt australia has been engaged in a war of words with china on human rights and more recently the origins of covert 19. it remains australia's firm view that understanding the cause of this pandemic has nothing to do with politics it's essential for preventing the next one and china has bitten back hitting us with punishing trade sanctions tensions and rhetoric are escalating earlier this year a senior australian security official warned of the beating drums of war coming from china echoed by defence minister peter dutton i don't think it should be discounted i think china has been very clear about that goal so are we unnecessarily a superpower and major trading partner are we talking ourselves into a wall or are we bravely standing up to an aggressive china australia has shown the world how one deals with the people's republic of china and the chinese communist party in particular colonel grant newsham is a china specialist and former head of intelligence for the us marine forces in the pacific biggest complaint about the australians is that there's not 10 times as many of them they were the first ones to stand up and say no we're not going to put up with this australia's future is you're going to have to fight for it if you want to keep it and the idea that china would never attack even never invade well i wouldn't count on that but australia is making a very expensive enemy our war of words with china is already costing us billions in exports every year [Music] and at a time when australia is ramping up its defense budget to be better prepared for any conflict with china i just think it's tremendously ironic that we choose to lead the world and being tough on china where we're so economically vulnerable the military upgrades that we're talking about the extra spending on our defense forces we can afford this stuff because of our really profitable trade um with china is that true michael the decision to spend money on defence is based on threat perception and that threat perception is focused exclusively on a rising china we no longer have 10 years strategic warning time for a major attack on this country the ball is in their court they need to actually realize that they are responsible for the crisis that we're now in not us historian dr david brophy believes the smartest strategy would be to engage with china because he thinks a war weary america may not have the stomach for more conflict even if it is in our backyard america's position is slipping and i think it's really unthinkable for a lot of people in canberra particularly in the defense sector that australia could be left alone without america in the neighborhood in a position to to help out if australia gets itself in in trouble but there is no military threat from china to to australia i mean i want to state that very clearly look at china's stated goals they claim all of the south china sea if china achieves that the way the region operates changes fundamentally china spends more on its military than a whole of asia combined he's absolutely right it's about chinese domination of the indo-pacific region and i don't think any australian citizen would willingly embrace that sort of relationship with china we should not to borrow a phrase from game of thrones bend the knee to beijing but experts warn if words ever turn to war australians will pay a terrible price we're dealing with the potential for a conflict that could be much more impactful on ordinary australians than anything we've seen in recent decades a former australian soldier and diplomat david kilcullen now leads the future operations research group which looks at how coming wars are likely to play out he fears australia is already china's punching bag xi jinping's way of sending his message to the u.s we are seeing not only an escalation of u.s and chinese rhetoric against each other but australia increasingly being seen as a u.s ally that the chinese feel they can push around to try to send a message to others john are we seeing china bullying australia into thinking at least that there's trouble coming the grand narrative of the chinese communist party certainly is that one china is undeterrable two its goals are fixed and three it will pay any cost to achieve those goals effectively to say stay out of it because it is hopeless to put up any resistance and you might as well stay on the sidelines and deal with china as china wants to be dealt with i do think it is very dangerous to frame china as completely evil only benevolent trying to frame china is like worse than darth vader yes i agree with all of that but at what point do you decide you can't just keep stepping back no we shouldn't step back so it is resistance futile no it's not futile i just think this talk of war amongst the general australian public makes people fearful it makes people anxious and unfortunately i think it makes the prospect of more war more likely i think we can show as much nuance as possible and be as accommodating as possible and not mention the war word once and they will still occupy the south china sea and they will still coerce their neighbours it is china after all that rolls nuclear ballistic missiles through tiananmen square on national day parades and tanks and displays their military might [Music] and in speeches threatens they'll bash the heads of westerners against a great wall of steel the chinese people will never allow any foreign forces to bully us anyone who dares to try will have their heads bashed bloody against a great wall of steel this is incredibly nationalist war talk that the chinese are using but this war of words is increasingly turning into confrontation if there's to be a war with china everyone agrees that the trigger will be taiwan the tiny island nation sitting off its coast the president xi jinping has already stated he wants incorporated into communist china xi jinping cannot afford politically to walk back from his commitment to take taiwan that would be the end of his power base the end of his control the chinese communist party claims taiwan is historically part of china which strictly speaking isn't true the island has an indigenous population dating back thousands of years a flourishing democracy taiwan would be an immense strategic and economic prize from last year our radar stations have detected incursions by nearly 2 000 chinese military aircraft in over 400 military vessels not only would it give china a military footprint well into the pacific ocean it would also give china fabulous wealth taiwan has the sixth largest foreign exchange reserve in the world and the island state supplies the bulk of the world's semiconductor computer chips critical to most modern manufacturing products from washing machines to cutting-edge weaponry and it's sitting there out of china's clutches with america's backing why does china need taiwan so badly taiwan is the veritable unsinkable aircraft carrier from which china can project military power deep out into the central pacific taiwan demonstrates to the world that you can have prosperity and democracy taiwan is definitely a prize i mean firstly it's a challenge an ideological challenge to the one-party state system of china but there's also a deeply emotional sense that is motivating china's leadership [Music] since it was created in 1949 after the chinese civil war taiwan has never officially declared its independence from china doing so according to our experts would be an instant trigger for war if taiwan does say it wants to be independent what happens china will invade simcoe sir those who warn of china's intentions for taiwan point to the example of hong kong which is now as good as taken over by the chinese communist party after crushing pro-democracy demonstrations there and there is no one who wants to protect taiwan's independence more than its former vice president madam annette liu who spent years in jail fighting to establish the island's democracy so i think it's very immoral if anyone has the interest in launching any kind of war at least critical movement of the earth madame lou proposes establishing what she calls a democratic commonwealth comprising taiwan south korea and japan to balance china's power we can make a golden trine vehicle in the region and we also welcome australia from the south america canada from the other side of pacific we order peace loving democracy malcolm davis believes australia should stand up for a fellow democracy in our region particularly if china should decide to invade taiwan if we do not act in the face of a chinese aggressive move against taiwan then morally and ethically we have fallen off our pedestal we have done the wrong thing i think that we do need to think about the implications of the lives of 24 million taiwanese one only has to look at xinjiang province where there's over a million weakers behind essentially barbed wire just for being weaker [Music] you do not want the situation playing out in taiwan where millions of taiwanese are in essentially concentration camps i think as the world has seen from forays into afghanistan invasion is one thing keeping it keeping control managing a restive taiwan population who have experienced democracy and feel passionately about democracy is going to be quite another whether it wants to go to war for taiwan or not china is certainly ready for it and ready to take on the us and anyone else who steps into the fight i've been watching china and the chinese military coming up on 40 years now and what you've seen really in the last 20 years is probably the world's biggest fastest military buildup ever not just since world war ii but perhaps in human history according to colonel grant newsham the former head of intelligence for the u.s marine forces in the pacific the scale of china's military buildup focused on taiwan is unparalleled and alarming so in your opinion what are they doing are they preparing for a fight or is this a deterrent well you first have to ask who would it deter have you ever heard anybody say that they wanted to attack china it's really for an offensive purpose and the first thing they want to do is to get the americans out of asia and the ultimate objective is global domination here here i really disagree i really disagree with this idea of global domination nobody matches the united states when it comes to aircraft carriers and power projection what china has got the ability to do with this build-up is to take taiwan and prevent the united states from interfering with it when it does so that's not global domination at all [Music] taiwan has always counted on u.s support but after a humiliating exit from afghanistan america may have lost its taste for wool in the event of china invading taiwan the big question that will determine the future of the region and probably the world is will the us come to taiwan's defense professor david brophy believes that's no longer entirely certain we have tended to assume in this discussion that if there was a chinese move that the united states would be there but people in taiwan are asking themselves the question is that actually the case would america be willing to risk a confrontation with china that could escalate into attacks on america on the chinese mainland for the sake of taiwan [Music] if america does not do anything it would be the beginning of the end of the u.s led alliance in the system and if you spend any time in washington at all you will realize that that is not acceptable to the americans if you look at the last 100 years of history america does sacrifice blood and treasure in a big way to achieve the strategic aims so i would say almost with certainty the us will come to taiwan's defence john lee is right if the u.s doesn't react then it loses all strategic credibility in the region and the broad risk of the u.s losing strategic credibility in the region would be horrendous for australia we would be on our own as well as increasingly aggressive international moves like expanding china's huge navy into the pacific president xi jinping has been cracking down hard on his own people to bring them into line with communist party thinking she calls it rectification and he's banned everything from boy bands and reality tv shows to foreign computer games and apps china's private schools have been all but decimated by new regulations and lessons on what's called xi jinping thought are now compulsory in primary schools it's as if it's a population being readied for trouble so if it came to war how would it actually play out we have to be able to sink the pla navy the largest navy in the world today we have to put it under the water down to davy jones's locker we have to sink that fleet former director of intelligence and information operations for the u.s pacific fleet captain james e fennell has wargamed an invasion of taiwan and says china would use a tactic learned from the u.s military operation desert storm during the first gulf war [Music] the strategy called shock and awe we know from chinese writings that they've studied desert storm the chinese have thousands and thousands of ballistic missiles that are arrayed along the chinese east coast and those rockets and those ballistic missiles would be targeting taiwan's key nodes military centers their ports their airfields known garrison locations of taiwan army forces i think there's no question in my mind that china once they make the decision to do this they will come full full bore like a like a crazy man with an axe the skies over baghdad have been illuminated in the first gulf war the united states bombed iraq for 42 days and 42 nights consecutively in order to achieve its objectives there is nothing that's stopping china from doing that and there is very little the united states can do to affect it except at very very great cost both sides know how this is going to play out the only question is who's got the most will malcolm in terms of firepower though china has some very impressive weaponry yeah they're developing this very long-range strike capability that is designed to be able to strike at the u.s and its allies [Music] one of the systems they're developing is the df-26 which is an intermediate range ballistic missile that can strike at u.s carriers as far out as guam if they can sink aircraft carriers that's a huge loss of life each aircraft carrier has about 5 000 personnel on board so the potential for the chinese to impose huge cost on the us and its allies including australia is very real yes yeah china's president xi jinping ensures his country's military might is there for his people and the world to see [Music] and adding to his war footing off the coast in disputed territory china has built artificial islands loaded with defensive hardware [Music] dr david brophy argues china is simply defending its coastline just as we do in australia we do have to remember this is all playing out along china's coastline to talk about deterring china what that is effectively saying is that we want to maintain a favorable military balance right up to your doorstep that will be able to dominate in a situation of conflict anything that takes place right off your coast now just imagine if a country on the other side of the world said that to australia that we want to prevent you from being able to control militarily the territory off your coast i think we in australia would regard that as a hostile posture and dr brophy cautions an all-out war between the world's superpowers could well involve nuclear weapons i don't think there's any way we can confidently say that this can be contained to a small war which i think some people imagine that it can be that there's a some sort of little stouch that we could have in the taiwan strait i think that that's one possible scenario but another and another is all-out nuclear barbarism and america maintains the the option of first use nuclear strike which suggests to me that it wants to position itself in such a way to say to china we are willing to fight a nuclear war with you we are willing to lob nuclear weapons at you [Music] when it comes to something this important this potentially devastating to the globe you don't take anything off the table indeed jim fennell believes the u.s needs to maintain its credible threat of using tactical nuclear weapons in a first strike i want xixia ping and the next person and the next person to always wonder hey is there a nuclear missile coming down on my head right now i want them to think that that doesn't mean i want to do it but i want to be able to rationally let them know we have that capability and if we get pressed too much you think you're the angry guy with the axe you have not seen anything yet is this when you come out and just say that's just plain nuts i just find this whole discussion completely depressing i think everybody around this table would agree we don't want war because if it is a war between these superpowers nobody knows where the nuclear threshold is going to be nobody knows what is that point when one side or the other will start to use nuclear weapons it is that serious that i think we should all be focused here in australia about de-escalating things and how do we do everything that we can to prevent armed conflict and to make sure that the united states and china can find some way to live with each other but dr brophy believes that as china sees us as america's closest ally there's even a possibility that australia may become a nuclear target i hate to speculate about this situation because it's so it's so horrible to think about but if china and america do enter into a conflict situation china wants to take a step up the escalatory ladder without necessarily striking the us mainland then a country like australia becomes an option you test the waters you know sending a message that they're serious but without taking the risk of hitting america directly because of the the potential for that to produce massive nuclear retaliation do you see that no i mean i think it's pretty clear to the chinese that if the chinese strike australian territory with wmds that is treated as an attack on the us the u.s would retaliate with overwhelming force frighteningly australia's forward planners including professor kilcullen who leads the future operations research group also don't rule out a nuclear strike from china if it does go kinetic as we call it you know if we get to battlefield shooting between the us and china and it reaches that tactical nuclear threshold i think it is actually quite likely that australia would take a nuclear hit fairly early in that conflict now you know i think strategists on both sides don't want this to go nuclear but if it does then that would put australia in the firing line pretty quickly the chinese know that if they use nuclear weapons we'll use nuclear weapons back and that will be the end of the prc okay so they understand the implications of crossing the nuclear threshold our strong relationship with america including australia's anzus treaty has meant we've stood shoulder to shoulder with the us in every major conflict of the last century including the most unpopular expensive and punishing like vietnam iraq and afghanistan our experts believe that a war with china if triggered by an invasion of taiwan will involve australia that's because whatever america does we will follow i think that australia is acting in such a way as to signal its willingness to go along with the tougher american strategy that is the strategy for australia [Music] given that any war between china and the u.s will essentially be happening in our backyard is this a conflict australia will be able to avoid even if we wanted to our close military ties to the us include american intelligence bases on our soil pine gap in the northern territory and northwest cape on the coast of western australia both would be critical in any conflict with china facilities here that would you know in the the immediate moments of any conflict situation probably spring into action and that would unfortunately entail that australian soil may well be used in a conflict before australians have actually had a say in that question the truth is the australian government has little control over what occurs at these bases or what defence decisions might come from them when the us faces war [Music] because of the us assets on australian soil it's true isn't it that an order to fire can be made and we won't know about it absolutely we call these things the joint facilities but the fact is you know members of american congress have more oversight and knowledge as to what goes on in these facilities than members of the australian parliament we have to recognize the position that we're in the most important question that any society can face the question of whether or not to go to war may well end up getting decided for us whatever the scenario for war our future planners agree it would be a front line like no other in history where australia might be crippled before a single shot is fired almost certainly one of the first things that would happen in a major conflict between the u.s and china would be knocking out of the gps system to disable a lot of u.s military systems that rely on that the moment that happens you can't run an fpos transaction in australia you can't fuel up your car at the petrol station because all of that depends on gps australia's economy would be very heavily impacted in the first few minutes in a matter of weeks we'd struggle to get enough fuel and oil so it's really tempting to think that we could just sit this one out and ignore it but the reality is we can't so this is one of these situations where you might not be interested in war but war is interested in you and there's just no way for us to avoid that but we have an anzus treaty well that raises a whole host of of questions the answers treaty is actually i think its importance is inflated the only requirement that anzus imposes on australia or the us is that there is consultation in the case of conflict why i think we should stay out um is that this would not be a war for taiwan or a war for democracy this would be an escalation of the u.s china rivalry which to my mind is essentially about economic interests political dominance in regions of the world i don't ultimately see moral high ground i'm sorry i can't agree with david's take on this the u.s australia alliance is critical to our national security looking at the scenario where we choose not to go in in other words david's preferred option we then have to think about the strategic consequences of doing that anzus falls apart okay so we are on our own in every sense of the word an alliance is always a living agreement the reality is that we are if we are not in a conflict with taiwan where japan which is committed recently to entering if japan united states are in there and we stay out of the way it is the end of the anses alliance for any practical purposes but will ordinary australians even get a say in whether we join the us in a war with china clinton is it correct that australia's involvement in any conflict doesn't necessarily need a vote in parliament does it that's correct uh the decision to deploy troops is just a decision by the prime minister who tells the defence minister and that's it and so therefore the australian people don't really get to debate this do they the only debate that's occurring is what's occurring here thanks to you yeah because my my whole point is that um all of what we're discussing is pretty chilling on a lot of levels for the average australian yes the last time the australian defense force was involved in a high intensity conflict was in korea we were 20 years in afghanistan and the taliban didn't even have an air force also of critical concern to our experts is the impact a war with china would have on nearly one and a half million chinese australians after all during world war ii japanese australians despite having lived here for more than 50 years were rounded up and imprisoned [Music] all those sociological consequences have not been factored in with people of ethnic chinese descent or people who look like people of ethnic chinese descent being abused in the streets calls from the extreme right and the fringes uh for them to be placed in tournament camps do you fear all of you that chinese australians will be seen as the enemy within absolutely i mean the australian chinese community and everybody who look vaguely sort of chinese in the event that you know there is a war with china what clinton said this notion of internment camps you know is a very real prospect you know john i'll see you there there's no cosmopolitan anti-racist way to gear a country's foreign and military policy towards confronting china without that stoking anti-chinese racism that is the reality that we're facing [Music] the major wars of the last 20 years have produced no winners the u.s struggles on in iraq and along with australia it has pulled the pin on afghanistan [Applause] but the big question is in a global showdown between china and america who would win there's really no nice way to put it but the chinese have if not overtaken us they've put us in a position where they could probably defeat us in certain circumstances depends on how the fight took place former u.s marine intelligence chief grant newsham is far from sure that america would prevail in any showdown with china especially if it was fought in the waters around taiwan they have now got a navy that is bigger than ours and just to give you one sort of a sense of things the south china sea which is the the hot spot that's contested now the chinese can probably put 10 ships into the water for everyone that the americans can send in have we underestimated them john lee yes we have underestimated the chinese consistently over the last few decades we no longer do that and certainly in a war in taiwan straits china could emerge victorious in a military sense china has been preparing for war in taiwan for more than 30 years david well i don't want to find out the answer to this question that the scenario for post-war on taiwan is not just bad for china it's bad for the world i mean we're talking about a situation that could trigger you know environmental crises economic crises i think that you know we're being very like-minded just to imagine that the world would be sort of roughly the same as it was um just with china in control of taiwan do we take it for granted that america will win any kind of war or do you accept that we may not the bottom line is america may not win but they actually have to prepare their best to try and hold the line here because it's so crucial if we just give up throw up our hands and and basically say well taiwan you're on your own then we're giving china that century that it wants in conclusion those warning of war tonight say we have two critical questions to consider should we be prepared to allow china to simply take taiwan as it has declared it will do and may do very soon and if so are we happy to live with the potential consequences of doing nothing or is there one more fundamental consideration are we really ready to face the prospect of a global war or as we've also discussed tonight are we more in danger of talking ourselves into one what i have issue with is this notion that china wants to dominate uh the world china wants to protect its interests absolutely but this notion that china is a dark force that wants to take over the world and subjugate everybody i don't think there's any credible evidence for that and it's good that we've had this debate but we have to make sure that we conduct a debate in a way that doesn't arouse fear and anger and anxiety amongst the australian people because if we do that it puts us on a path which leads more directly to all of the horrible things that we've been discussing today david if china takes taiwan or attempts to do we do nothing well i think if things heat up i think that we do need to stay out i think we need to call on all parties to stop and and pray that they do i i think for the future of humanity we need to get away from this notion that it's just a doggy dog world and the only way to resolve disputes is through military force i think we see that on the chinese side but i think we also see that in in some of the opinions that are being put forward this evening if china takes taiwan it doesn't stop it's the first step in that expansion china has told us that the only thing stopping china from invading taiwan is consequences so if if the united states australia said we will not be involved that massively increases the chances that china will be inclined to use force to so-called resolve this taiwan question if you have the u.s going into harm's way to defend taiwan which after all remember is a fellow western liberal democracy just like australia we would be negligent in our responsibilities as a us ally if we stood back and did nothing i do think that it is incumbent upon our government of the day to recommend and make the decision to intervene alongside the united states to defend taiwan and clinton what is your message to australians well they should understand that the chinese government's resolve has been well expressed and i believe it is genuine they intend to take taiwan by peace or by war and the question is what happens not just to the region but to australian society as a consequence hello i'm liz hayes thanks for watching 60 minutes australia subscribe to our channel now for brand new stories and exclusive clips every week and don't miss out on our extra minute segments and full episodes of 60 minutes on ninenow.com.iu and the ninenow app

Channel: 60 Minutes Australia

Views: 13,184,065

Keywords: 60 Minutes, 60 Minutes Australia, Liz Hayes, Tara Brown, Liam Bartlett, Tom Steinfort, Sarah Abo, karl stefanovic, 60Mins, #60Mins, china, war, dutton, nuclear, missiles, weapons, taiwan, australia, america, UK, deal, submarines, invade, protect, experts, doctor, professor, examine, military, south pacific, trades, chinese communist, xi jinping

Id: kA2KaEKs1LA

Length: 41min 26sec (2486 seconds)

Published: Mon Sep 20 2021

Reddit Comments

[u/fix_S230-sue_reddit]

War with china might sound cool and all to the Aussies, but have they considered the possibility they might lose? Losing to the Taliban, Vietnamese and Koreans means packing up bags and running home. Losing to the Chinese is a totally different story, there is nowhere to run to.

War is

A grave affair of the state;

It is a place

Of life and death,

A road

To survival and extinction,

A matter

To be pondered carefully

~The opening of Sun Tzu's The Art of War

[u/[deleted]]

If Australia goes to war with China, China will simply mandate an embargo on Australia similar to how the US restricts Cuba:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_embargo_against_Cuba

Australia is a small country, and shouldn't play with fire, or they're gonna get burned.

[u/C24848228]

Okay so it’s that german fella?

Edit FUCK

[u/elBottoo]

Yup, saw this on the front of youtube too. Algorythms are pushing the story hard. Decided not to click on the aussie trash.

Eff m and eff youtube.

[u/whoisliuxiaobo]

Comments are off in this propaganda video. I wonder why?

[u/sickof50]

The funny thing about Australia's trade woe's is... it was the US that stepped in and increased its grain, coal, meat, and wine sale's to continue to supply China's needs.

So you've got to ask yourself, is the US deliberately posturing in the South China sea, just to hype up arms sales, when they really never had any intention of entering into any conflict at all in the first place, and they're playing them for paranoid suckers?

[u/ChopSueyWarrior]

I saw that on my Youtube feed and decided not to waste my time with it.

60 Minutes used to be good quality journalism till about 15 years ago.

[u/goldenman0929]

People are waking up. The like to dislike ratio was 5 : 1.Usually anti China videos on other Youtube channels have a 10 or greater : 1 like to dislike ratio.