We 'can never win' a war: Taiwan's former president Ma on the best way to deal with China | DW News

the people of Taiwan have lived under the threat of Chinese Invasion for decades now and that threat has only intensified in recent years well now the people of Taiwan are voting for a new president and at the heart of this election is the question what's the best way of dealing with China the incumbent party the DPP says that Taiwan needs to stick to its tough line against Beijing that that's the only way to stay strong the opposition kmt which hopes to get back into into Power well it says there's a better way it says it's important to get friendlier with Beijing to reduce tensions well we've come to speak to the last kmt president of Taiwan maying Joe he was president from 2008 to 2016 he says that he knows the best way of dealing with Beijing and it's a much friendlier way we're going to talk to him and drill down on why he thinks that Taiwan needs to get friendly with China to reduce the risk of War president M thank you so much for speaking to DW today you have and the kmt your party they you've presented this election as a choice between peace and War yeah um can you explain that view well a the candidate for the dppp Mr chinda is a person who support to Independence for many many years and he has always V that he wouldn't change his position wherever he is so I'm sure the the guys in man in China will be very nervous about a a person like this and so far he hasn't Mr Li hasn't really uh talked too much about his uh to Independence approach but everybody was was alert but vice president lie who's running for the DPP um has made it very clear that he would not call for Independence he says that Taiwan does not need to call for Independence that it is already effectively uh an independent sovereign country so there is absolutely no need to do that he says he represents continuity from president zwen who is who is now leaving office uh do you believe he's lying uh well he's his name is liying no I think uh I I think they they are afraid too they are afraid that there would uh uh they they they the kind of uh they provocation is not very good for Taiwan and particularly I'm sure he has received uh some advices from our friends in the United States too I mean do you believe that there could be a war if the DPP wins this election not necessarily depending on the what happened during the process and what they would say in uh just in case they they win the election and people expect that that uh they the DPP will take a lot of care in avoiding any potential conflict you know so they try not to be provocative so but you have said this is a choice between War and Peace but from what you just said it sounds like well maybe you don't think there will be War can you just clarify a little bit what is your position here as I said the candidate one of the candidate is a lifelong supporters of taian Independence although they he has torn down his uh uh words in during the campaign but the impression is there for over 10 20 years already so people will see what the how much it will change if he uh is really elected as president I mean the way you're putting this suggests that you put the blame on the DPP and on William lie for the current tensions across the time um isn't it China that's really to blame for this I mean it's China that sends warships close to Taiwan that flies uh war planes across the median line now the provocative military action is coming from China isn't it have you visit Taiwan when I was President uh no I didn't so you didn't know at the time the crossr relations is so peaceful now we have signed 23 agreements with the mainland and cross straight visit uh done by over 5 million people we have some problem with the manland for sure but never reached the stage of a military action but the DPP is different because they have a lifelong belief of taian Independence that is the biggest no no from man and China so they they watch they watch the Canada they watch the actions very attentively so this is all the DPP fault you believe to to a great extent because they Advocate tyan Independence this is something which is absolutely uh unacceptable to the mainland but but president Tai has also been very clear she's not advocating declaring independence she says uh that Taiwan does not need to declare independence that she defends the status quo I I well for for those of us who who watch the politics U every day I think this is is it's merely some uh slight changes of its uh position regarding Ty Independence but if you ask anyone in the political Circle in Taiwan understand Mr Li has been a supporter of Taiwan Independence for so long and he had he he said many many times that he said he will uphold my position wherever I I am so this is something it's like a a new politician uh who has no no no political path for you to uh uh look at so that is why I think uh if if you if you ask me which one is more responsible of course Main in China is responsible but DPP has also has his responsibility in making the situation it is today but but you say that China is responsible I mean so far you've been highly critical of the DPP and not been critical of Xi Jinping for instance for for threatening to use a force to attack Taiwan for for mounting massive military operations around Taiwan um what's your message to China is that all just totally fine like the DPP is both sides are responsible of course both sides but when I was President this kind of thing didn't happen why is that well the DPP would say that you were far too friendly with the Chinese that you went far too far in trying to build connections with the Taiwanese this Unleashed a student protest called the sunflower movement where young people came out on the streets and said that you were getting far too close that you were putting uh taiwan's autonomy at risk but what for for anyone in Taiwan during uh my president understand we have relatively peaceful relations with them so it's entirely different what it is today that is why I ask you whether do you have been here when I was president if if you w then you can make the accurate comparison between the two but it's clear that the people Ed end up rejecting that and for two terms they they voted for the uh DPP and potentially current opinion poll suggest uh that they will vote for the DPP again well if they if if that is their choice then they will have to be prepared for some kind of actions from the mainland which we already warn that uh TPP candidate what kind of trouble they can make if they get elected and would you see that as justifiable by the China if China mounts military action of some kind some not justifiable but it could be avoided if we do something right that's why my position I'm not saying that DPP should follow what the kmt did but at least as a leader in Taiwan they have to take care of the man very carefully that is why about two three years ago president Tai says men in China and and Taiwan he said we don't actually belong to each other and this in in my eyes as a international lawyer this is a a typical secessionist move it doesn't have she doesn't have to say that when I was President I didn't say anything like this but everything they said could always be interpreted as something for taiwan's Independence and they knew very very much that tendent issue is very sensitive in Cross R relations well let's move on we'll move on later on to talk about the whole idea of one China which I think is really interesting but I think we want to move on now a bit more to to what's at stake in this election um now your Party's candidate hooi has talked about the need for 3DS in dealing with cross straight relations he talks about deterrence he talks about dialogue and uh deescalation deterrence dialogue deescalation so we want to talk about all of these three areas but but I think first of all let's talk about deterrence and the importance of having a a strong military to deter China from mounting an attack M Mr Ho's uh Crossway policy by and large follows my and at the time I said no unification no Independence and no use of force he he adopted all this of course what you just described as a uh new but uh not different different version of his policy and I support that so so let's take a look at the deterrent part of that first of all so having a strong enough military to deter China from taking action do you believe that Taiwan right now has a strong enough military to provide effective deterrence well the the question is uh uh how much protection you need for the current situation I think uh what we have now is relatively okay in case of some military action across the Taiwan Street of course if you want to do more you could do more but uh the most important thing in my view because I've been president for eight years and know I know how to handle man in China we could use peaceful means to do that it doesn't have to resort to every military yeah so I guess that's moving on to the deescalation part of it but let's just talk about a couple of aspects of deterrence first of all there been a debate about um military service in Taiwan so the DPP extended uh compulsory military service to 12 months um hooi your candidate uh last year was talking about reducing that back to four months and then he seemed to change his position again um what's your view what is appropriate in Taiwan as the period of compulsory military service uh I think it's very natural for a people particularly people from the United States or from the BPP to view the military service of four months it's too short but it's all my term it's four months and did it all right because we don't want to use Force to solve problem with the mainland so you would like to stick to four months you think yeah why not okay um hoo y has also talked about military spending so this is also an issue um currently around 2 and a half% of GDP um hoi has talked about gradually increasing that to around the level of 3% uh do you think that's appropriate um well if you look at uh what I did when I was President we didn't spend that much of minatory because because we have established uh dialogue with Mana not just for uh higher up levels but for all the Ministries they have their counterpart the man so everything in case of any problem they can always find a way to solve it without having to resort to force so you think 2 and a half% is enough it's not not not necess if if we can develop a a peaceful and closer relations with the mainland I think the most difficult or or most problematic aspect of that policiy you believe that uh force is important or necessary we which we consider is not incorrect but doesn't have to be that way yeah but we are talking about the 3DS your candidate has said that and deterrence is the first of these DS it comes first from what you're saying you want to reduce the importance of deterrence with military service or military spending and increase the importance of say the dialogue and deescalation do I understand you right right do you know why I think that way because every in the last couple of years the dppb has never had a dialogue with the mainland yeah well because the main that's because the mainland China refuses to talk to the DPP but not only because of that but DPP does not accept the 92 consensus but let's we'll talk about dialogue in just a moment I really want to stay with deterrence for a moment because what you've said is leave military service at four months 2 and a half% of GDP is sufficient so so it suggests that your approach to deterrence is not really to go any further you think just just really focus on other elements do you know why I believe that way because no matter how much you defend yourself you can never fight a war with the manland you can never win they're too large too much stronger than us so we should use nonuse Lal means to reduce the tension and this is something the people of Taiwan would like to have people of the man would like to have so if you always believe of a strong defense it's all right but in the situation of Taiwan it would be very dangerous to our people well it's in the point with uh taiwan's military expenditure is that Taiwan would need to be in a position where it can fend off a Chinese attack for long enough that then the United States maybe Japan come and help that is too optimistic you know it's the China men and China military is much larger than us and if you know the Rand Corporation of United States they have done a uh exercise of hypothetical Warfare 18 times between us and men and China all 18 times us us loss so it it sounds somewhat defeatist attitude in terms of approach to the military that I'm hearing from you that you feel that deterence is almost impossible it's very difficult and we should not put all our fate in uh defense we have to use peaceful means to De to dialogue with the mainland so that we could reduce the tension you know I'm know I don't know whether you know I visited the mainland early this year and which has been quite successful last year 2023 yes and and so I think so we try to reduce the potential reason for conflict and as instead of building up our military just just uh to to to wait to wait for a potential conflict with the Mana that's very dangerous people will die you know if China does mount an attack do you believe the United States would come to taiwan's Aid that that's the question we ask every day and didn't get an answer I I don't think the US were directly involved and they they they would try everything to avoid it because if they get involved and have a face to face conflict with the mainland that could lead to nuclear war Joe Biden has said four times uh that he would come to taiwan's Aid he has gone beyond the traditional ambiguity that the US has had towards this uh question do you not fully believe him then well I think uh it's very difficult for the US to to make that kind of decision because uh if a war breaks out across Taiwan Street and the US is involved so that will be uh disasterous and so we should try everything to avoid hot war between not just Taiwan and man in order to prevent war between the US and man China as I said according to rent corporations uh uh simulations 18 times all the US law so there there's a limit of uh the us support so we have to understand that very clearly the I mean in the US that's leading a debate on how important it is for the US to invest more in its military particularly uh in uh in the indopacific region you think that that's a mistake then is it no I think military uh preparation uh should be done and it should be done well I I'm not saying that we don't want that we want that but we can not depend on that when your enemy is is men in China there are so many many times our size and much stronger in military so we have to understand that very clearly and that is why I advocate the peaceful resolution of the disput during all my term I'm doing that I visit the main I try to uh make friends with them and we try to uh actually promote Co at high and this is probably the best way to uh to to not using four is to solve our problem let's move on to the second D dialogue dialogue um you met Shin himself when you were president in 2015 do you think he's a man Taiwan can work with uh it depends on how you work with him I think yes how should Taiwan work with him as you know after eight years of your presidency a lot things changed a lot of people say GP he changed himself well actually very it's very important uh of of uh the the concept of 92 consensus when China respective interpretations which was uh reached in uh uh 1996 and that gives the two sides the opportunity to maintain the situation without having to go to war and we understand very very well if the war ever breaks out across Taiwan straet it will be disastrous nobody will win that's what I mean by this change because um in 2019 when he talks about 1992 consensus he said it's the consense that will be used to push for unification and that's what he said right like a lot of people or like even people from kmt think that it's more and more skeptical to negotiate under this consensus and it also becomes more and more unpopular here in Taiwan especially among young people well I think they they I think not just the young people but people in general would actually uh misunderstood the 92 consensus during my term of service as president 92 consensus is the very important political foundation between the two sides and that serve us well we not only um never have a situation to go to war but we expans our peaceful contact almost every uh aspect of life and this is probably the best way to do if you only think about war conflict and and so you build a lot of weapons and and and make a strategy uh oriented against to War I think that's not the best strategy for Taiwan at all is shinpin a dictator as Joe Biden says huh is shinpin a dictator as Joe Biden put it that way well it depends on how you defend it but that doesn't that term doesn't mean very not very important in the cross relations because we have to to to to create a situation that we can deal each other peacefully without having to use force and that is probably more important than any other rhetoric you have so you think you can trust them uh well as far as cross relations you have to but then again like this new for this New Year Speech you talked about um unification is historic necessity and then so from his side he's keep pushing like the the process of unification and under the circumstance you still think that's I I don't think he's he's pushing for unification you know they of course they want China's unification that is for sure but he also understand very well that unification cannot be achieved overnight it would take take many many years it has to get the consent of the people so when I went to the mainland uh early this year and met with the officials I told them that for the relations between taian and the mainland I think it's very important to look at two factors one is peaceful another one is democratic unification is something that our constitution says so it's it's uh actually um Act acceptable to Taiwan but it has to be done peacefully and through a democratic process if that can be done the chances are people in Taiwan may be interested in in accepting that you talk about your visit to China last year do you know your image is used in Chinese military's video to promote unification and in that particular video they show their arms they show their ability to conquer Taiwan and your image is in it so doesn't that show like CCP is using you to divide Taiwanese from each other oh they've they've been doing that for a while I wouldn't I wouldn't uh uh think that that that will stop my thinking of trying to uh reduce the tension across Tower straight As far as China's reification is concerned it could be a long process and has to get the uh consensus of the people so it's not something you could achieve in a couple of years or even 10 20 years yeah you're talking about the consensus of people so if we look at the poll for example from nccu you know like um during your eight-year presidency actually much more people identify themselves as Taiwanese than Chinese especially among young people do you see that as a trend and also these people they reject the idea not only one country and two system but also 1992 consensus so the population here the people here they're telling you we don't want this idea anymore I think it's very uh important to have to let the young people understand what is the essence or cross reg relations and what does 92 consensus mean to them I think 92 consensus as I said means one China respective interpretations but the government here DPP always says a 92 consensus is just one country two system no it's not at all we and myself are opposed to one country two systems but I accept 92 consensus there are two different things MH so uh from your point of view what is is it like unification a real real like far sight that you can see that will happen no no it's it's going to be take a long time but the most important thing before reach that end the process will be peaceful and Democratic if we can do that I think the people of Taiwan probably will accept that will there will there be a possibility that there will be Taiwanese Independence oh I don't think that uh that is something that people in Taiwan are doing and or want to do I think majority of the people understand power Independence in in Cross relations Is Something uh very very dangerous from the poll we can see only less than probably 2% of the population think unification is possible and most of the people they want um stay at the state like status quo the way it is yeah the status quo but that's also because of the the threat of the war but if you ask people there are still more people supporting Independence than unification uh that is unsure at the moment if if they understand Independence Means War which is true mm okay then so at the moment people in Taiwan don't want to unication that's that's okay but I don't think people of Taiwan will will support taiwan's Independence and they probably at least some of them understand if they do that that means war mhm mhm now let's talk about deescalation do you think the US is being too aggressive toward China the US for example having n palosi visiting and then selling weapons to um Taiwan all these different [Music] moves well uh I'm sure well of course M and China is opposed to US military uh relations with Taiwan but that's something that that we don't really take that very seriously because they've been doing that for more more 70 years but we have our own defense and we have to defend Taiwan no doubt about that so we want to purchase adequate military hardware from the United States of course this is opposed by me in China but that we we probably should overlook because we we have our own defense what about Nancy Pelosi's visit do you think it was a mistake uh he's a friend of the Republic of China but she probably didn't know very much about about cross Revelations or of or she thought that she knew but she didn't because after her visit a lot of things changed there war plans coming um across the median line so you you do think it was a mistake what we had I think our government I don't know whether they have at least politely let the people like nusi know their visit to Taiwan doesn't really help our defense at all from ncy po is said she thinks that it's important to show her support or the American Support to democratic thank her for her support but it has to take some other means to do it because she doesn't even know how to understand the crossroad relations this is something uh we we sometimes worry about uh some of the Americans they say we have to give everyone every taian need an AK-47 rifle to defend their country I said oh my God our R is much better than 1847 we man manufactur the the best rivals comparable to M16 so they didn't understand the situation and make a lot of sometimes ridiculous comments so if you which we don't appreciate if you were at the position you will say no to her huh if you were the president you will say no to her that's right I think as I said they come to visit us to show their support that we appreciate but for how we should do to make our uh relation with the mainland uh acceptable probably will know more than they do now it comes to us China relation there's a growing consensus in the US that it is a new Cold War um with China that will last for a generation do you believe that is the case not necessarily it depends really on how the two sides go handle the relations I don't think uh uh we we don't think we want to have a war with the mainland I don't think Mainland want a war with us right now but they as as you know is a nationalist they they probably will take any further action in Taiwan very seriously so I have to uh be very careful we have maintained good relation with the US for over 70 years as you know they used to have uh military advisers in Taiwan and they they uh they Retreat uh night in 1981 or something yeah and not not troops just military advisers and so we appreciate the support and we still purchase a lot of American Arms for our defense this is something man and China also oppose but that we think is our country's defense so we insist on doing that but we don't have to use that to provoke any conflict with the manland so we continue to have a good relations with the manland in in other areas I mean maybe I could just jump in here because I'm curious to to probe a bit on the kind of us China relationship uh is the fact that us China relations are they are getting worse there's a major rivalry between the two whether you call it a cold war or anything else it's is this a danger to Taiwan does Taiwan risk getting sucked into this conflict oh obviously a uh good relations between Washington and Beijing is good for Taiwan and uh and in our part uh we think we could uh play a role uh in Cross relations in order to actually reduce the tension between men and China and the United States so I always call for the United States or other Western countries to encourage Taiwan to have a dialogue with the mainland so so when you look at the debate in the United States about China which is highly critical of China which is really gearing up for a generation of conflict are you worried that this is it's going too far that the US needs to take a step back no I think us has it it's all man China policy for sure but for us in Tai one we always keep United St uh inform that we will try our best to to make cross relations peaceful and that will reduce the potential conflict between us and and China so this is what we can do but if we just step back from a moment we're approaching the end of our conversation but but to kind of look at the big picture again so I mean we have a situation where um you say and I think you have this in common with the DPP that essentially you know the status quo is fine we could continue with status quo and you say no uh unification um also no Independence and no use of force no use of force so we have that on on the side of Taiwan there is actually a fair amount of consensus between the parties on aspects of that then you look at mainland China uh it becomes very clear that the one thing that xiin ping says he cannot tolerate is the status quo he says that unification is an historic inevitability um and is essential to the sort of great meta project of the Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation so you have Taiwan saying status quo United States saying status quo China is saying unification how do you it's a major fundamental contradiction there how do you resolve that when I visit the mainland earlier this year I to talk to the officials and tell them that U of course I understand shuin ping all the Chinese Communist Party would like to see the two sides of the Taiwan Street United but I said for the issue of unification I think it has to be done first peacefully second democratically if not then Taiwan people in Tai will not accept so they have to think about that peaceful and Democratic what and and is there any peaceful Democratic Pathway to unification that you can imagine that will of course they could take take they could come up with ideas of how how one mland should be uh United but it has should not go beyond peaceful and Democratic this is something I think uh if they want to do certainly we could change the status quo if a peaceful and Democratic approach is uh Pro proposed certainly we can discuss that but but why not then I mean if you turn that around that's essentially why don't you say to China you have to give up your threat of the use of force I mean this is the ultimate problem right I mean this is what creates the risk of War is China saying we reserve the right to use Force why not demand that from them if you want to talk to us at all take away this threat of force Jim me I think recently said he said the cross regulations uh uh they will handle that through uh peaceful unification peaceful unification but they will not give up the use of force that's their position I I think at least we can if we had a chance to to to discuss this question we said you have to uh keep in mind in order to get the support of the Taiwanese people you have to be peaceful and Democratic but whether they will accept invocation is something for them to decide yeah but but I mean just to throw that question back at you because I didn't quite hear an answer there why not simply demand that Beijing says okay we promise we will never use Force that would that would deescalate the situation by the click of the fingers uh well I'm not Beijing I would give you that answer they probably would never accept that they would why not demand it why just sit back and think okay they won't accept it so we won't even ask no no no no no I I think we we said they they said that their relations with Taiwan will be a peaceful but they will not give up using Force right but that's the problem that's the problem yeah that's why we have to discuss that with them and trying to persuade them that if he continue to take the use of force as the last resour probably you will never get Taiwan thank you very much for your time angel thank you very much thank you

Channel: DW News

Views: 253,660

Keywords: DW News, taiwan ma, Ma Ying-jeou, ma interview, taiwan election, taiwan president, taiwan, taiwan china, taiwan china relations, taiwan analysis

Id: OZcQaUR0yZg

Length: 35min 51sec (2151 seconds)

Published: Wed Jan 10 2024