[Music] for NATO a worst case scenario would be a Russian attack on one of its member states and now it is rehearsing for exactly that possibility it's running its biggest military drills since the Cold War to practice its response the exercise is called steadfast Defender and it sees some 990,000 troops from 32 countries taking part with fighter jets tanks and warships this all shortly before the second anniversary of Russia's fullscale invasion of Ukraine since then Keef has fought to expel its Invaders with help from Western weapons but will the support continue today on to the point we're looking at Putin's Imperial Ambitions and asking is the West leaving Ukraine out to [Music] [Music] dry hello and welcome to to the point I'm CLA Richardson in Berlin there's plenty to unpack today and I'm so pleased to welcome our fantastic panel to do just that we have Marcus Kim a senior fellow at the German Institute for international and security Affairs Milan nich a senior fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations and for the view on NATO we have DW's Very Own Brussels correspondent Terry Schultz joining us today from Finland so in almost uh 2 years of War we've seen Ukraine uh repelling a Russian invasion and I want to just take a look first at where things stand today uh Terry from what you're hearing in the halls of NATO how serious is the situation in Ukraine well we have known for a long time Claire that it is critical and you know you constantly hear that Ukraine is running out of ammunition now they're even concerned that they're running out of soldiers because president zalinski has has been unwilling to make the most dramatic call-ups of his citizens um and now it's looking like he might have to do that so uh when you hear these stories of Ukraine fatigue throughout the West throughout NATO allies particularly in the United States right now you wonder just how much more dangerous can it get for Ukraine how much longer can they hold on when they're not getting the supplies they need and when countries which have them are dithering about whether they can afford this that's a really big concern meanwhile the Frontline allies of NATO the Baltic states in Poland realize uh every day that if Ukraine doesn't win they believe Putin is coming for them next so this isn't just a critical issue inside Ukraine it's also a critical issue inside European countries and Marcus this has really turned into a war of attrition hasn't it you're seeing not much ground one on either side but both incurring really bloody losses uh do you think that this kind of war is to Russia's Advantage I totally agree we have seen this situation for a couple of month now in military terms no major movements I think we see fighting every day every day people every day people are dying however if you ask for the big picture I think there's no large movements on the ground and in the political Arena as well we don't see any political initiatives any political negotiations going on however I think there's movement on in other Arenas in Europe as mentioned by Terry before in the United stes as well I think we're going to talk about this in a couple of minutes so it's not so much to about the to focus on Russia and Ukraine on the on the front on the front line but more the political Arenas in Western capitals and we certainly will be talking all about that in just a moment but first uh Milan I want to come to you for your opening thoughts what is your view on this war of attrition do you think that Putin is sitting here rubbing his hands with Glee uh while he waits for Western support to fade for Ukraine well he has been very self-confident in the recent public statements uh also let's not forget that there is something still called elections presidential elections in Russia in March um I think he is pushing his generals for some kind of a symbolic Victory maybe AA being overtaken although there is not much left and the Russians uh the Russian Armed Forces now do have initiative uh so they are I think pushing the Ukrainian defenses um but we remains to be seen not how much ammunition Russia will have but in few months how much of an Russian army is there they will need to do new mobilization which is very tricky in a big country because still Putin doesn't want to admit that the country is fully in war although the defense industry is running fast he wants to outgun us as a as West I think he he he counts on lack of resoluteness to step up our uh defense Industries including in this country and then he's waiting for us elections um what I hear from many people looking at this Russia experts he's not really uh for peace negotiations before the end of the year and if then only tactically to squeeze out Ukraine the big goal for Moscow is still not to take territories 1 kilometer square kilometer here and there but to strangle Ukraine as a sovereign state so so many moving Parts here and as we've heard ammunition is a huge issue for Ukraine it has been ripping through artillery shells and Ukrainian commanders say they are not being replaced as fast as they need every shot is precious Ukrainian soldiers only have 2,000 bullets to fire at the moment Russia on the other hand has at least five times that much the appeals from keev are becoming increasingly urgent I am grateful to all friends of Ukraine worldwide who understand that the battlefield cannot simply wait and that we cannot wait to save lives to all those who are trying to expedite the necessary decisions they are needed right now but Aid is slowing down despite political resistance the US granted another $250 million in military aid shortly before the new year but it remains unclear whether further supplies or funds will follow and the EU is also falling considerably short of its commitments often only verbal promises are [Music] made according to French president Emanuel macron a Russian Victory would mean the end of European security that is why we will continue to help the ukrainians the reality is different in March 2023 the EU promised Ukraine that it would Supply 1 million artillery shells within a year so far only 300,000 have been delivered Russia on the other hand has expanded its arsenal of weapons with help from Iran and North Korea in addition the Russian arms industry has massively ramped up its production which is increasingly outperforming Ukraine militarily can Ukraine count on more help from the West so Milan let's pick it up right there if you were speaking to Ukraine's leadership and Advising them what would you tell them can they expect more Western support I think they already understand that there will be more um support and financial support in particular coming from Europe rather than the US Germany and German Chancellor interestingly is stepping in to lead on this um he's talking a lot about the next week's uh European Council special Council for uh agreeing um fa Financial facility for Ukraine to the tune of 50 billion euros for four years um hunger is Victor Orban is still blocking it but you see Olaf Schultz actually making sure that there is um agreement on this so Ukraine can rely on it big question about Tes Marcus will explain this better why this is important but I think it will be bigger challenge to keep public support behind such moves uh as as we go during the year yeah Marcus do you want to pick that up why are are the Tauruses uh so important for Ukraine and just more generally how much are we seeing a lack of ammunition in Ukraine affect their ability on the Battlefield right now maybe two two or three points the first one I think um we see that the European arms industry suffering from 20 30 years of no production or less production so it's has been quite difficult in the last couple of months to speed up production in European in European factories arms factories uh we' have seen the we have seen the commitment of the European Union to provide 1 million uh shells to Ukraine I think the final number at the end of the year will be 300,000 as far as I remember so this is too little I think we going to see more in the forceable future 25 26 but it might be too late and at the end of the day it's it's a matter of political resolve and determination and I think this is the the bigger problem because at the end of the day in Germany we have been called that we living in time of sight mener times have changed a big break in international relations but on the other hand the German government is quite um particularly looking for ways to go with the crisis not putting too much pressure on the German govern on on German population yeah really still unclear whether this turning point will really happen in German history uh Terry I want to come to you because we did hear NATO Chief Yen Stenberg warning that the war in Ukraine has turned into a battle of Amun munition and the alliance has agreed a 1.1 billion Euro contract for hundreds of thousands of 155 millim artillery rounds can you tell us a little bit about that and how much of it we can expect to go to Ukraine yeah Claire I would like to actually unpack a lot of this discussion on ammunition because I've been tracking the entire process actually going to an ammunition Factory in Norway and watching these 155 mm shells be forged in fire because wanted to understand just what is holding up Europe's supply of ammunition to Ukraine and there are a lot of places where the process gets dragged down the first one being that uh as was mentioned uh Europe's weapons manufacturing capabilities were scaled way back before they ever thought that there would be a war coming close with Russia and so it wasn't possible and it isn't possible even in the best of circumstances to just buy 150 mm shells off the shelf they are all custom made uh specific to Country countries and so they most European allies NATO allies have sent what they could from their stockpiles and this 1.1 billion dollar deal that you just mentioned this joint procurement that was announced this week that is only going to be for shells that are delivered in two years two to two and a half years it will take to supply that order and I have to say that this is made by allies who have not have not said at this point that they will send them to Ukraine and who even knows what the sit situation will be in years's time but it takes so long to make these shells and as you mentioned they didn't scale up fast enough to uh fulfill this promise to have a million sent by the end of March so Ukraine remains very much out in the cold in terms of getting these shells and we don't even know how much more might be spared from European stockpiles it's a big problem for Ukraine but it also is a problem that comes back to European allies when their own Comfort levels of their stockpiles are are below where they would like them to be but in fact we did not see orders Go in fast enough to the weapons manufacturers despite government saying they wanted to scale it up quickly for Ukraine and for themselves okay so these are not being produced fast enough it's not even uh clear whether they will go to Ukraine and yet Marcus uh the Ukrainian side at least publicly seems to still be remaining very optimistic about this is this just uh for show to avoid a self-fulfilling prophecy should it give the impression um that that without Western support uh with weak Western support that it's really going to be hung out to dry here my question would be what is the alternative for the Ukrainian government just to smile and to pretend to be happy there's no alternative I think they're quite aware I think that the I wouldn't say the majority of Western governments but a lot of Western governments still make the same claim as in February 2022 Ukraine may not lose Russia may not win but if you raise a question what does it mean in financial terms in military terms I think the future and the current status quo is rather dark and I'm I'm I'm not confident that this will change in the foreseeable future and you mentioned the tus issue here in Berlin a hot issue in German politics I mean it illustrates something Germany is particular avoiding the impression to provide long term uh missiles to Ukraine and now it's they're going to the UK and the UK um provides them to Ukraine this is unst strategic foreign policy um and this is a Pity yeah so we talked a little bit about Germany's role here but Milan I want to come to you when you're looking at Arms deliveries from Europe for Ukraine I mean who do you point a finger at here who is to blame and who is really uh hitting the breaks on sending additional ammunition and supplies to Ukraine well you have um you have a public discourse which is changing uh because it's no longer prime minister of Hungary saying uh he would not deliver any weapons it's also now uh prime minister of my own country Slovakia Robert fito who came famously who was elected with the saying no no no single bullet more while in fact his government is still delivering it's just not from the armaments um from the um army uh warehouses they empty after the previous government delivered everything they could but there are contracts um private contracts running there is a also a lot of flows go through territory of Slovakia from Germany and others and U prime minister fito was at the chancell yesterday talking with Olaf Schultz about new uh cooperation contracts between the two Armament Industries so you have a public discourse you have a you have also Society in my own country part of it is really tired from this war in neighboring country and would like to see some signs that that that politicians are trying to encourage some kind of a ceasefire so and I think prime minister fito is aware of that he's looking at pools he needs to say one thing but then in fact quietly he's doing something else if you look at the Eastern flank of NATO you have really different approaches even to the Russian threat down the road two three years not every sort of political Elite in countries there uh think that they are they can be threatened by Russia not everybody is Poland or the Baltic countries so some of these countries including I would put Bulgaria into this Camp I thinking okay maybe we can we can we can set it out and Russia will not threaten directly to us because we were always friendly but that's fascinating isn't it I mean looking at the case of Slovakia and Robert fito because you've got a neighboring country um making big claims about wanting to stop arms deliveries to Ukraine but then as you say he seems to have changed his tone recently can you explain for us a little bit more what is going on there and and why you see these differences between different Eastern countries regarding uh their attitude toward Russia and the war in Ukraine you have different history you have uh different uh societies so yes if 60% of uh Society in my own country wants something a different course of government then then this new leader is providing it while I mean what's interesting he met Ukrainian prime minister Mi inor before coming to Berlin they agreed three infrastructure projects things like a railway connection from KF to kosit airport so that people from KF can use the airport to fly out um they will meet every two months with their ministers to really sort of uh put this robust cooperation it's such a big contrast with Victor Orban Hungary yet the public line of Robert fito is basically no more no more uh weapon support uh change of course it's not really a change of course but it's very different political communication about it and let's take a quick uh look also at Western support here um because looking to the US I mean there's even potentially more bad news for Ukraine here uh Terry um you know the elephants in the room the possible and and not unlikely election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States um he has boasted that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day if he comes to power is this just a typical Trump bravado or or is there something concrete to his plan what could Ukraine expect Claire I'm going to be honest I don't spend a lot of time looking at Donald Trump's supposed peace plans for Ukraine when I'm so busy looking at you know ammunition deliveries to the soldiers who are fighting on the ground forgive me for that but I will point out that president sininsky said hey Donald Trump you got a plan a real plan come on over and show it to us so I think president zalinski uh uh you know is is masterful at his Communications as well and sort of took the lead on that but I will point out that I wouldn't say any NATO Ally has confidence in a trump plan and and really wouldn't like to to think that there's uh you know a possibility that this is going to be something they're asked to sign on to I'm standing in a city where I also covered the Trump Putin Summit in 2018 and that is something no one would like to see a repeat of the relationship between Trump and Putin is something that worries NATO allies European Union Partners every single day and you said you know it's the elephant in the room but I can't tell you how many conversations I have already had about people's worries that that Donald Trump could be coming back as president of the United States and what that will mean for NATO and its Unity well Terry thank you so much for that um you know as we've heard NATO really wants to deter Russia from pursuing any of its other Imperial visions and that is one of the reasons that we've been seeing the biggest NATO exercise in decades I'd like to take a closer look at steadfast Defender it's the largest military drill since the end of the Cold War 990,000 soldiers from 31 Nations will undergo 4 months of emergency training to prepare for the scenario of a Russian attack on a NATO Ally this seems more probable now than it has been in the last 30 years Russia's invasion of Ukraine has presented NATO with new challenges militarily politically and ideologically support for Ukraine is not charity support for Ukraine is investment in our own security and therefore allies have provided unpr support now we are ramping up production NATO wants to strengthen its air defense by placing an order worth billions Allied Nations plan to purchase up to 1,000 Patriot missiles NATO is upgrading with more soldiers weapons and new members including Finland and soon Sweden is the alliance prepared for for an emergency so is NATO prepared uh for a worst case scenario Marcus I want to First Look at How likely this is that we would see a Russian attack on a NATO member State and then we can turn uh to NATO's preparedness in such an event uh what do you think how realistic is it that Russia would try to uh attack a member of NATO I think nobody knows what's in Vladimir Putin's mind so I wouldn't dare to speculate about it but I think for the next couple of years we quite safe the military capabilities of Russia have been severely diminished in Ukraine um we see some determination to replace them in Personnel terms but also in military capabilities um but I think Vladimir Putin knows the difference between Kev and talin Estonia is member of NATO to pick one example and I think he has to realize that will have serious repercussions for for him and Milan oh sorry to jump in I'm curious whether Milan agrees with this okay go ahead I think we slept through before the war started in Ukraine we slept through the fact that this is different Russia different Putin if you remember his conditions before the war started what he wanted he wanted to roll back NATO to 1998 so Czech Republic Poland Hungary not hosting so-called military infrastructure this is crazy because it means that we cannot exclude that when Ukraine war ends he will poke to the resoluteness at the weakest point and I think the weakest point is the Baltic countries in fact I talked to people from the new government in waro last week and their their um analysis is that in two to three years if the war ends next year two to three years later we cannot exclude it there will be small incidents in the Baltic countries um when Russia will try to see and learn you know how NATO react reacts maybe to add one thing I think there's a different another dimension we sometimes Overlook um which is a confrontation which is not military the whole whole thing of um disinformation cyber Espionage um um destabilization we see more and more of this and this this is quite an important part or dimension of the western Russian conflict and if you would ask me I would bet more on a destabilization operation of Russia at The Finnish Finnish Russian border the Lithuanian Russian border that expect a fullblown military confrontation in the years to come I suppose we will have to wait and see no one will know for sure until then uh but Terry let's look then at you know if this were to happen how prepared NATO would be and do you think that focusing on wider NATO preparedness looking at the possible attack on one of its member states is actually uh detracting and taking away from its efforts to support Ukraine well let me just pick up on that comment about the presumption that Russia will poke at The Finnish Russian border because that's one of the things I'm here reporting on and that is very much what they think was happening with um Russia you know facilitating migrants coming to the border and pushing them over they think Russia wanted to see how resilient Finland could be right now and see if there was any you know sort of in the armor of this new NATO Ally of the European Union and they have not found that to be effective so so much at the moment but it doesn't mean they won't try somewhere else and yeah sure I mean NATO will say to the Ukraine's constant heartbreak that its job is to protect every inch of NATO territory so when when it comes to it I mean that's really what they're doing here is making sure that their own territory is not vulnerable to any kind of of Russian invasion um including the hybrid Warfare tactics that were mentioned here uh so it does take some attention away from Ukraine but I I mean NATO is Unapologetic about the fact that that's why it exists it would love to help push Russia out of Ukraine if it doesn't mean any you know NATO allies TR uh boots on the ground if if allies can you know uh maintain their own self-defense with what they send to Ukraine but in the end NATO is really here to protect itself and that's what steadfast Defender is about and Marcus your view is NATO uh leaving Ukraine hanging here as it looks at potential threats elsewhere I would agree I mean with the NATO Summit last year and Ukraine was denied full membership and the alternative would have been or have been so-called not security guarantees but security agreements um with the G7 States um G7 member states and as far as I can see there's not much um um progress in these debates and in these agreements and I think at the end of the day I think all Western governments have to raise have to ask themselves a question what are they going to do to defend Ukraine not only now but also in 5 to 10 years and I think there's lot to improve all right we're going to have to leave it there uh thank you so much to our audience for watching and to my fantastic guests for your insights and Analysis we really appreciate your time today uh if you're watching at home and you enjoyed the show uh let us know if you're watching on YouTube you can drop us a comment uh I am CLA Richardson in Berlin and I'm so grateful you could take the time see you next [Music] time [Music]
