How Taiwan's 2024 Election Could Change Its Relationship With China, US | Insight | Full Episode

[Music] Taiwan is heading to the polls and looming over the elections are the world's two superpowers China and the [Music] US every election in Taiwan is of consequence uh to Regional security and because of us uh Ambitions will this be taiwan's most important election yet and what does it mean for the future of the 23 million people living on the [Music] island 54-year-old Eric Chan is a professional plane spotter one of his favorite spots to watch planes and flight is at sinu military Airbase along the west coast of Taiwan from this Vantage he has noticed that the skies have gotten busier recently [Music] [Music] since 2020 China has ramped up military flights around Taiwan that year there were 380 air inclusions in taiwan's air defense identification zone or adiz in 2023 that number has jumped to 1,610 so the exercisers certainly can be used as part of an attempt to remind the Taiwanese that there could be a a cost a military cost to Taiwan if they make the wrong decision in in January why January well because on the 13th of January 2024 Taiwan will elect its next president representing the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party or DPP is William lie or Li Ching tur the DPP has been in power since 2016 when president tyan took office the party is a strong proponent of Taiwan nationalism and autonomy for opposing the DPP is whole UEI from the main opposition party guing Tang or kmt the kmt last held power between 2008 and 2016 it is also regarded as the more Beijing friendly party and then there is the third option the newly formed Taiwan people's party or TPP founded in 2019 the party is headed by former taipe mayor kener for a while the TPP had considered forming an alliance with the kmt but talks have since collapsed we see both Cohen of the TPP and um h of the kmt being unwilling to play second fiddle to each other um I think for the kmt they feel that you know they are the sort of largest opposition party and there's no reason why they want to play uh second fiddle uh K is mindful of the fact that he is you know head of a new party that he wants to establish and the degree that he plays second fiddle will diminish that role this [Music] while candidates Spar in the campaign period two Titans will be watching closely Beijing and Washington in a meeting in November 2023 between the two superpowers at the Apex Summit President Joe Biden called on China to respect the electoral process in Taiwan President cing ping reminded the US president that Taiwan was the biggest most dangerous issue in us China ties we're probably at one of the lowest points of us China relations in recent decades so the rest of the world is certainly paying very close attention to any development anything in Taiwan that could result in China deciding to ramp up the pressure and thereby contribute to further destabilization in in the region from the Chinese perspective they have always been very suspicious and indeed concern uh that the US uh throughout uh across the American administrations uh would play the so-called Taiwan card uh to essentially exert leverage or to create a point of pressure when it comes to us China relations and indeed to create complications for China's R but even much more than that going beyond that what they really worried is that it could embolden pro-independence forces because of American Support to push Taiwan further down the rout of former Independence which is why uh from their perspective all forms of American Support uh uh to Taiwan is is seen as ous to understand why China considers Taiwan a red line we have to go back to 1945 the end of World War II the guing Tang or kmt was the ruling party in China then following the surrender of the Japanese the kmt assumed control of Taiwan then in 1949 the Chinese Civil War came to an end the Chinese Communist party or CCP was Victorious and the defeated kmt fled from the mainland and settled in Taiwan at the time both the CCP and kmt declared themselves the legitimate government of China till now the CCP considers Taiwan a renegade Province and Beijing has been pursuing reunification since taiwan's separate existance outside of China's for uh is a reminder of that Century of humilation if they did not complete reunification it's an issue of strategic importance it's an issue of History unresolved historical business if you will and and it's also an issue that connects uh to the Grand Narrative of the great Rejuvenation uh of the Chinese Nation it's very difficult after years of reinforcing that narrative uh to turn back to your constituents to your society and say well guess what we were wrong uh and we should leave Taiwan [Music] alone over time each side of The Straits has developed into different systems of governance while China remains politically communist Taiwan has developed into a democracy but despite their difference in political ideologies there were exchanges and diplomatic relations in 1992 representatives from China and Taiwan met in Hong Kong and tacitly agreed that there was only one China and while the two sides have different interpretations of what this means the feeling is that Taiwan will not claim Independence the 1992 consensus sparked around of closer ties between China and Taiwan that was until 2016 after the election of President changan China cut off Communications with Taiwan T had campaigned on a pro-independence message since 2016 China unilaterally decided to suspend TI with Taiwan as part of a series of actions that were meant to pressure the Sai Administration but also punish it uh for refusing to abide by the so-called 1992 consensus and to play into beijing's one China narrative and they chose therefore to continue to isolate [Music] Taiwan well from the Chinese perspective they see the DPP as a pro-independence force they have never really trusted uh the DPP whoever is the leader and dpp's presidential candidate vice president Li continues to assert Taiwan sovereignty in his campaign vice president Linda has made a very clear platform in terms of how he plans to maintain cross straight stability and peace center around two facets the first facet is a continuation of President sing with four commitments and the first of all is a commitment to a free and Democratic constitutional order the second commitment is to ensure that the RLC and the PRC um are not uh subordinate to each other the third commitment are to resist enro Ms on our sovereignty or annexation the fourth commitment is a commitment that the future of the Republic of China will be decided by the 23 million people here on Taiwan but because of these positions the kmt said that a vote for the cumbent is a vote for war it is concerned that uh the current crossray relation is trapped in a perilous trajectory toward conflict pushing Taiwan close to the brink of War knowing that the presidential candidate H has put forward the 3D strategy which are deterrence dialogue and deescalation first terance Taiwan must enhance its self-defense capabilities reducing the adversary's willingness to invade and discouraging Hasty welfare second dialogue the candidate advocated for promoting crossray relation between the people of the Taiwan area and the men area third deescalation continuous interaction on functional uh matters between the two sides will help the escal the future risk but this balance could become increasingly difficult to maintain president C has not ruled out the use of force in pursuit of reunification earlier this year there were reports that the Chinese leader ordered the people's Liberation Army to be capable of invading Taiwan by 2027 a crucial deadline which comes in the middle of the next presidential term with an increasingly assertive neighbor the stakes for the Taiwanese elections are high will voters be forced to choose between [Music] superpowers it's August 2022 and Taiwan is welcoming then us house Speaker Nancy palosi as Speaker of the United States House of Representatives Pelosi is second in line to the US Presidency behind the vice president this makes her the highest ranking US official to visit Taiwan in decades it's primarily to show support uh for Taiwan and also a demonstration that uh coercion or threaten coercion by China would not dictate what American officials can and cannot do and now more than ever America's solidarity with Taiwan is crucial cral and that is the message we are bringing here today the visit did not sit well with Beijing the Chinese see this as a huge provocation and not only that they explicitly warn the us not to do it they see this as lending support uh for Taiwan as an independent and autonomous uh entity which goes against uh Chinese core interest Taiwan is China's core interest in response China conducted massive live firing drills around Taiwan but despite China's show of force the DPP continued to meet with American officials in April 2023 Nancy Pelosi successor Kevin McCarthy met with President Tai in the US calling Tai a great friend to America the United States is very very important for Taiwan our job is to number one to ensure that we have clear lines of communication with the United States we have a high degree of mutual trust uh respect and understanding of the situation the second part is to ensure that our interests and values continue remain closely closely aligned on the values part I mean democracy Freedom has been what has guided the Baseline of our values in past years but in terms of interest and we share a common interest in ensuring stability and peace here in the Taiwan straight as a testimon of this shared interest the Biden Administration approved over1 billion US do in armed sales to Taiwan soon after Pelosi's visit a move which angered the [Music] Chinese with the US China relationship on Shaky Ground some believe Tai's growing ties with Washington is provocation 64 year-old f chenan is a professor at the national CH University's College of communications he's also a founding member of the Taiwan anti-war declaration task force a group of retired and active academics that advocates for taiwan's autonomy while maintaining equal distance away from China and the US [Music] for most Taiwanese the status quo is preferable in a recent survey by the national changer University almost nine in 10 Taiwanese prefer the status quo in some form only about 6% want to push for Independence as soon as possible it's a balancing act uh it's always a difficult one uh regardless of who's in power in Taiwan we have had the administrations that were you know lean closer towards China and that was also difficult for them because ultimately the only guaran of Taiwan security uh is a United States but status quo or not most tyan view the us more positively than China in 2020 PE Research Center found that respondents favored closer political ties to Washington over closer ties to Beijing by a 2:1 margin this is especially so among the young Wilson Chen is a third-year student at the National cheni University majoring in political science at 22 the coming elections will be his first time [Applause] voting young voters like Wilson could play a crucial part in the upcoming elections this block carried president chenan and the DPP to a landslide victory in 2020 their motivation they saw what was happening to their neighbor across the sea civil liberties in Hong Kong had been curtailed by Beijing following the largest Pro democracy protest in the territory's history yet the kmt cannot ignore the youth block if it hopes to win so in September 2023 ho yui kmt's presidential candidate also paid the US a visit during his visit to the US he called America taiwan's sincerest Ally and friend the original thinking behind the trip is to convey the candidate's personal stance and the uh to illustrate taiwan's uh willingness to take on the responsibility in the Indo Pacific region uh so us to enhancing us Taiwan relations but while the US is taiwan's most important Airline there are questions if it will be a reliable one a poll conducted by the Taiwanese public opinion foundation in April 2023 showed that more than half of the respondents do not believe that the US would send troops in the event of a Chinese attack on the Taiwan side there's been a view among some people that the US side is willing to cut them loose if the if it's suitable to for us interest what looms large is the breaking of um official ties between taipe and Washington in 1979 um and also the you know Clinton's three knows where the Taiwan is unnecessarily seeding uh their interests um without even Consulting them President Bill Clinton's three NOS were no to Taiwan Independence no to Taiwan joining any organization that requires statehood like the UN and no to two chin so with any partnership or Alliance relationship especially internationally there's going to be what we call a commitment problem which is a question of whether one site that has made some sort of commitment will live up to it uh because there's no way you can enforce any agreement uh [Music] internationally and as the election draws closer something curious is happening on social media and up ticket stories that seem to drive a wetch in US Taiwan relationship this bit of misinformation sprung from a clip of us Congressman Seth Molton saying this at a conference very clear to the Chinese that if you invade Taiwan we're going to blow up tsmc I just throw that out not because that's necessarily the best strategy but because it's an example this out there and of course the the Taiwanese really don't like this idea double Think Lab is an NGO based in Taiwan that focuses on debunking Chinese disinformation campaigns a task made more difficult as the elections draw near now as for Wilson if he had encountered any disinformation about the US he doesn't seem suede for but as large as the Shadows of the US and China Loom over the upcoming polls for many voters it is domestic issues that weigh on their minds especially with taiwan's ailen [Music] economy [Music] what [Music] [Music] Tim like many Taiwanese is facing an increase in the cost of living while inflation is relatively Low by global standards prices have increased by 1.97% in 2021 and 2.95% in 2022 these are the highest hikes since 2008 the Government tried to manage or control the price for Public Utilities most of the public utility companies are stay owned companies so we have a frozen for example the electricity price gasoline price and Waters and all this so that help uh stable uh stabilize the price however the housing for example is still very much expensive [Music] it [Music] for according to a government rent index in June 2023 rent prices in Taiwan were the highest since records began in 1981 driven up in part by property speculation Skyhigh property prices coupled with low wages have priced out young voters like Tim from owning a home for the party candidates have put forward their plans to raise wages and control prices so vice president Linda worked on these issues when he was Premier I mean he launched several initiatives several regulatory changes uh for startups including for example um relaxing some Financial restrictions um building regulatory sandboxes for startups and so forth the second part is to really ensure that we can bring some manufacturing back to Taiwan as well particularly on the high-end Precision manufacturing the candidate has proposed uh three element policy first pay raise basically this has to be done through tax reduction so the companies that can offer their workers pay raise will receive tax reduction and second Workforce housing all Enterprises with a land are encouraged to build Workforce housing third helping the disadvantaged by tax reduction [Music] but whoever leads Taiwan next will face severe headwinds in May this year the island saw a technical recession after two quarters of negative growth the first since 2015 so starting from last year uh we see this um economy uh going down no so the Expo and other things are actually going down so there may really be new challenges for Taiwan in October exports fell for the 14th straight month and here too Taiwan cannot escape the turbulent Waters of superpower rivalry about 40 minutes Northeast of the capital taipe is shenal port in the seaside District of Ruan it's about 9:00 a.m. in the morning and the fishermen have just returned from the Seas caught off the coast of Taiwan in the East China Sea these fishes can grow over 2 m and are a popular dish in Chinese [Music] cuisine China is still our largest trading partner and also our largest destination for outbound investment however that share has been a gradually declined for uh two years ago still accounted for around 42% of our total export but last year that share declined to less than uh less than uh 40 uh reflecting the fact that Taiwan is actually trying to diversify it Market over the past few years this has allowed Beijing to flexx its economic muscle in August 2022 China banned the import of over 100 products ahead of the visit by US House speaker Nancy Pelosi including ribbon fish they are bending Imports of agriculture product and Fisher product and uh generally speaking it has very limited impact on taiwan's overall GDP because uh agriculture only accounts for very little share of our export so far we have not seen uh band on our manufactured product especially those important items uh China needed for its manufacturing industry such as electronic components and also semiconductor instead when it comes to semiconductors the pressure could be coming from the other side in 2022 the Biden Administration passed the chips act restricting the sale to China of advanced chips built with underlying American Tech some chips made by Taiwanese firms fall into that category Taiwan produces over 60% of the world's semiconductors and 90% of the world's most advanced chips Taiwanese firms will inevitably be dragged into that trade war with United States and sanctions and whatnot it's something that us officials and trade officials and think cares are also trying to navigate uh and try to reduce the impact on Taiwanese companies because it makes absolutely no sense uh for us sanctions to hurt their Ally in Taiwan particularly in the in the high-tech sector which is the very sector where the United States is imposing sanctions on on Chinese firms so it's it's it's in in in this this very interconnected environment it's very difficult to completely isolate Taiwanese firms from the impact of those trade sanctions as a solution all three parties want to diversify their trading [Music] relationships so we need to create incentives for our business to look elsewhere other markets other opportunities so if you're thinking about other opportunity southeast Asia is also a great opportunity for you invest in but we need more than that we need really trade incentives and this is why the time Administration over the past years has had a robust focus on bridging new trade deals with important trading partners under the shadow of uh us China trade War uh us Taiwan trade continue to rise at the moment the United States is the second largest market for Taiwanese export so to continue expanding us Taiwan trade the candidates advocate for a continuous work on the Taiwan us 21st century trade initiative and to negot iate Taiwan us tax agreement for the fisherman at least there has been some reprieve the Chinese ban on ribbon fish was lifted in March 2023 allowing fishermen to once again export to the mainland however a cloud of uncertainty continues to hang over the waters probably China will again uh uh weaponize or politicize their uh trade measures against Taiwan and this time it will be pretty much uh comprehensive with polls just around the corner how will the opposition stack up against incumbent and what do Taiwanese want for their future [Applause] election day is in less than a month and canvasing has kicked into high gear three candidates are vying to succeed president ch taiwan's first female president I would say that President I did a very good job in internationalizing uh the Taiwan issue whereas previous presidents had either focused on relationship with China uh or focused on relationship with United States often times at the expense of other countries uh president Sai opened the doors uh the door to divers ification not only in terms of trade with her new southbound policy that focus on South and Southeast Asia but also recognizing the need to establish relationships with other democracies worldwide she was assisted by shiin pin in that China also became a lot more belligerent around the world policies wolf Warrior diplomats that often times alienated countries so I think president tyan has done a quite a remarkable job in terms of stabilizing uh taiwan's own domestic economy it's grown she's weathered Co and I think most remarkably she's withstood quite a lot of pressure coming from the PRC so I think what the sort of real stand out there is that she's been INF flappable whatever pressure what gets thrown in her way uh she's treated those issues quite calmly despite this the presidential race is shaping up to be a close one a poll conducted in November 2023 by broadcaster tvbs showed DPP with 34% of support followed by the kmt with 31% and the TPP with 23% the majority of people in Taiwan are still comfortable with the policies that President Sai proposed for the past 8 years and for all intents and purposes a president Li would continue those policies as well what we're also Al seeing as well is the opposition is still struggling to find its footing particularly the kmt here's where we have to look at where the DPP and the kmt stand on Cross trate issues the dpp's basic position is that it seeks deterence first and on top of whatever uh on top the ability to deter the PRC from using aggression or coercion uh there can be talk about Co of Corporation now the kmt side they lean more towards um uh accommodation some would say capitulation uh but the point is that they think that anything uh that can Pro possibly provoke uh the PRC should be avoided and that's uh their primary stance yet there is a growing number of Voters who Tire of the two- party system and the US China [Music] dichotomy [Music] for here the TPP offers an alternative even though the party is trailing overall Co of the Taiwanese People's Party leads among those under 40 while the parties continue to jostle in the crowded election space looming above is the fate of cross straight relations and its impact on the wider region so I think the degree to which taian is able to maintain its uh St uh stability in its area is useful and important for the region because Taiwan sits arride major sea Lanes major air rots and also submarine cables so uh any disruption will unsettle the links between Northeast and Southeast Asia well if the DPP candidate were to win this uh election then we are more likely to see another four more years of Greater tensions and uh friction points in the Taiwan Street on the other hand if the kmt candidate or the TPP candidate were to win the presidential election then the conventional wisdom is that this would lead to a lowering of tensions because uh those two candidates would say things that would be more pleasing to to the ears of China what we need and hope to see at some point is an acknowledgement by Beijing perhaps more enlightened leadership ship that recognizes the facts in Taiwan and society's opposition to being Incorporated by a country that violates the rules of democracy and freedom and there is a desire for coexistence on the Taiwanese side but as long as you have this Hardline leadership in Beijing that refuses to recognize realities in Taiwan or sees them but chooses to uh to do something different uh we're going to continue seeing seeing tensions in less than a month the Taiwanese people will cast their ballots to choose the leader who will sail the island through the Rough Waters of superpower rivalry for some voters China's assertiveness has helped them decide for others their livelihoods are on the line and for a few the burden of being caught between Titans weighs heavily on their shoulders

Channel: CNA Insider

Views: 460,157

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Id: M9tDK7ctvaA

Length: 46min 26sec (2786 seconds)

Published: Tue Dec 19 2023